Tuesday, December 30, 2014

2014 - week 18, playsoffs week 1, picks

Here goes nothing...

01/03 8:15 PM
103 BAL 47 under
104 PIT -3 *

PIT should win by 6
BAL is a bit lucky to get into playoffs via 'backdoor'

01/03 4:35 PM
105 ARI 38 **under**
106 CAR -6 *

CAR peaking at the right time?
unsure if CAR can cover 6
Both teams D are playing well, CAR D appears to have the easier task

01/04 4:40 PM
101 DET 48 *OVER*
102 DAL -7 *

DAL to win by 2 scores (10-14pts)
DET is a bit hot, DAL is smoldering

01/04 1:00 PM
107 CIN 49 *
108 IND -3½ over

CIN could win by 10pts
IND hasn't play well in two weeks

2014 - week 17 - results

So I ended this season on a decent note, but overall my record was not as good as last year (which wasn't that great last year as well). I ended up sub .500 ATS and right at .500 with totals for the season. Not bad considering all my distractions this year. Maybe next year less distractions will equal a much better record...

2014 - week 17 - results

Sunday, December 28, 2014

2014 - week 17 - picks

Whoops, forgot to post....

12/28 4:25 PM
301 DET 47½ over
302 GB -7½ *

COLD T20's WC10's
DET C Raiola susp'd

12/28 1:00 PM
303 JAC 40½ under
304 HOU 9½ ***

must win for HOU for PO wild card chance

12/28 8:30 PM
305 CIN 48 over
306 PIT -3½ *


12/28 1:00 PM
307 IND -7 *
308 TEN 46½ under

IND cannot improve PO position with win

12/28 1:00 PM
309 CLE 41½ under
310 BAL -10 *

40's RAIN?
CLE QB Shaw starts
must win for BAL for PO wild card chance

12/28 1:00 PM
311 BUF 44 *
312 NE -4½ UNDER

40's-30's RAIN/WIND
NE cannot improve playoff position with win

12/28 1:00 PM
313 NYJ 41½ *
314 MIA -5½ UNDER

just for DIV bragging rights?

12/28 4:25 PM
315 CAR 47½ over
316 ATL -4 *

DIV PO spot up for grabs

12/28 1:00 PM
317 CHI 43½ under
318 MIN -6 *

REALLY COLD 10's WC single digits
just for DIV bragging rights?
CHI QB Cutler starts

12/28 1:00 PM
319 SD 42½ UNDER
320 KC -3 **

T40's WC30's
WILD CARD PO spot up for grabs
KC QB Smith out, QB Daniels starts

12/28 1:00 PM
321 PHI 52 UNDER
322 NYG -3 *

40's RAIN
just for DIV bragging rights?

12/28 1:00 PM
323 DAL -6 *
324 WAS 49½ under

40's RAIN
DAL has small incentive to win

12/28 1:00 PM
325 NO -4 *
326 TB 47 under

just for DIV bragging rights?

12/28 4:25 PM
327 STL 41 *UNDER*
328 SEA -12½ *

T40's WC30's
SEA playing for bye?

12/28 4:25 PM
329 ARI 36½ *
330 SF -6 UNDER

ARI playing for bye
ARI QB Lindley starts

12/28 4:25 PM
331 OAK 48 *
332 DEN -14 UNDER

T30's WC20's
OAK QB Carr starts?

Wednesday, December 24, 2014

2014 - week 16 - results

As expected, not the greatest of results.... SD @SF, PHI@WAS, ATL@NO, KC@PIT, BUF@OAK were all L-L (loss ATS, loss total) ouch... but I guess this is one of those seasons...

2014 - week - results

Friday, December 19, 2014

2014 - week 15 - results

not as bad as last week, but still not good enough. I guess on the positive side for being distracted the past 3 weeks, I can't really complain about the results and this is what I would expect.... But I'm digging a hole ATS that I can't get out of....

2014 - week 15 - results

2014 - week 16 - the rest of the week picks

still haven't posted results from last week.... where has all the time gone???

12/20 8:25 PM
103 SD 41 *under*
104 SF -1 *

SD QB Rivers back?
changed pick from SD/Under to SF/Under

12/20 4:30 PM
105 PHI -7½ ***
106 WAS 50½ **under**

12/21 1:00 PM
107 MIN 42 over
108 MIA -6½ *

12/21 1:00 PM
109 GB -11½ *
110 TB 48½ OVER

12/21 1:00 PM
111 DET -8½ *
112 CHI 44½ under

CHI QB Clausen starts

12/21 1:00 PM
113 ATL 55½ ***OVER***
114 NO -6 *

12/21 1:00 PM
115 NE -10½ under
116 NYJ 47½ *

12/21 1:00 PM
117 KC 46½ *
118 PIT -3 over

12/21 1:00 PM
119 CLE 40½ ***UNDER***
120 CAR -3½ *

12/21 1:00 PM
121 BAL -3½ ******
122 HOU 41½ **UNDER**


12/21 4:05 PM
123 NYG 43½ *
124 STL -6 **UNDER**

12/21 4:25 PM
125 BUF -6½ *
126 OAK 39½ under

12/21 4:25 PM
127 IND 55½ *
128 DAL -3 UNDER

12/21 8:30 PM
129 SEA -7½ *
130 ARI 36 *UNDER*

ARI QB Lindley?

12/22 8:30 PM
131 DEN -3 *
132 CIN 47½ over

Thursday, December 18, 2014

2014 - week 16 - TNF - picks

I'm a bit late, but here it is...

12/18 8:25 PM
101 TEN 39 under
102 JAC -4 *

Saturday, December 13, 2014

2014 - week 15 - the rest of the week - picks

not sure what to expect for the weekend....

12/14 1:00 PM
305 OAK 41½ **UNDER**
306 KC -10 *

last week for OAK emo game vs SF
it's not easy to have two emo games in a 


12/14 1:00 PM
307 JAC 45 UNDER
308 BAL -13½ *

this might be a better 1st half bet

12/14 1:00 PM
309 PIT -3 *
310 ATL 54½ **OVER**

ATL D will need to play way UP to win

12/14 1:00 PM
311 HOU 49½ ***
312 IND -6½ over

I just think it's too many points to give up to HOU

12/14 1:00 PM
313 CIN 44 ***
314 CLE -1 UNDER

CLE QB Manziel starts?
(and CIN is not favored?)

12/14 1:00 PM
315 MIA 48½ UNDER
316 NE -7½ *

MIA won 1st game
so NE returns favors SU and ATS

12/14 1:00 PM
317 TB 41½ UNDER
318 CAR -3½ **

CAR QB Anderson starts

12/14 1:00 PM
319 WAS 47 UNDER
320 NYG -6½ **

WAS woe is me?

12/14 1:00 PM
321 GB -4 *
322 BUF 50½ UNDER

will BUF get home cooking?

12/14 4:25 PM
323 MIN 42 *
324 DET -7½ over

DET is over rated, is MIN under rated?

12/14 4:05 PM
325 NYJ -3 over
326 TEN 42½ *

Who is worse?

12/14 4:05 PM
327 DEN -4½ **OVER**
328 SD 51 *

can DEN kick it up a notch?
(and wrap up AFC West?)

12/14 4:25 PM
329 SF 38 under
330 SEA -9½ *

SF another woe is me?

12/14 8:30 PM
331 DAL 55½ over
332 PHI -3½ ****

for the NFC East title?

12/15 8:30 PM
333 NO -3 over
334 CHI 54 ***

neither team is on a role,
instead both have controversy,
so who will be focused?

Thursday, December 11, 2014

2014 - week 15 - TNF - picks

seems obvious, well at least to me...

12/11 8:25 PM
301 ARI 40½ UNDER
302 STL -4½ *

STL D impressive past 2 weeks

2014 - week 14 - results

OUCH!!!, well it really shows as I haven't watched as much as I like to in the past two weeks. I ended 5-11 ATS and for Totals....

I'm now sub .500 for the year with Totals and ATS.... sigh...

2014 - week 14 - results

Friday, December 05, 2014

2014 - week 14 - the rest of the weekend - picks

not so good last week, so what about this week?

12/07 1:00 PM
151 BAL 45½ **OVER**
152 MIA -3 *

12/07 1:00 PM
153 PIT 47 *OVER*
154 CIN -3½ *

12/07 1:00 PM
155 IND -3½ ***
156 CLE 50 over

12/07 1:00 PM
157 HOU -6 *
158 JAC 42 over

12/07 1:00 PM
159 NYG -1 over
160 TEN 46 *

NYG beat up, just 52 players, short 1 man 

for 53 man roster, due to PS rule
(for the remainder of the season)

12/07 1:00 PM
161 CAR 49½ over
162 NO -10 *

12/07 1:00 PM
163 TB 41½ *
164 DET -9½ under

12/07 1:00 PM
165 STL -3 *
166 WAS 44 UNDER

12/07 1:00 PM
167 NYJ 40½ **UNDER**
168 MIN -5½ *


12/07 4:05 PM
169 BUF 47½ *
170 DEN -9½ over

12/07 4:05 PM
171 KC -1 *
172 ARI 40½ under

12/07 4:25 PM
173 SF -8½ *
174 OAK 41 under

12/07 4:25 PM
175 SEA 48½ over
176 PHI -1½ *

12/07 8:30 PM
177 NE -3½ over
178 SD 51½ *

12/08 8:30 PM
179 ATL 56 under
180 GB -12½ *


Thursday, December 04, 2014

2014 - week 14 - TNF - picks

If last week was any indication of my lack of time for picking and posting games, this week will not be any better. I'm hoping just to hit .500

12/04 8:25 PM
101 DAL -4 *
102 CHI 51½ under

it's less than an hour to kick off.
It's hard to take the home dog, CHI has yet to play really well at home. 
CHI is at the start of a 4 game home stand, but I think they'll lose and stink it up...

2014 - week 13 - results

Now why did I pick SF? Was it because it's a division rivalry and usually the home team wins?
Ouch! I ended up 8-8 ATS, but 4-12 on totals. It really shows when I don't have time to review games.

2014 - week 13 - results

Friday, November 28, 2014

2014 - week 13 - the rest of the weekend picks

well here goes... nothing..

11/30 1:00 PM
451 WAS 51½ over
452 IND -9½ ***

WAS ST Captain, Hayward IR OFY
WAS QB McCoy starts

11/30 1:00 PM
453 TEN 42½ under
454 HOU -6½ **

TEN LT? RT? new C?
HOU QB FtizPatrick starts

11/30 1:00 PM
455 CLE 40½ over
456 BUF -2½ *

CLE FS Gipson OUT 
(CLE lost LB Dansby last week)

11/30 1:00 PM
457 SD 45½ under
458 BAL -5½ ***

11/30 1:00 PM
459 NYG -2½ *
460 JAC 44½ UNDER

11/30 1:00 PM
461 CIN -3½ **
462 TB 44 over

11/30 1:00 PM
463 OAK 42½ *UNDER*
464 STL -6½ *

OAK 2ndary banged up

11/30 1:00 PM
465 NO 53½ under
466 PIT -4½ **

NO inj's OL/DL, WR, 2ndary

11/30 1:00 PM
467 CAR 42½ *under*
468 MIN -2½ *

MIN RT Loadhold IR

11/30 4:05 PM
469 ARI -2½ *
470 ATL 44½ under

11/30 4:25 PM
471 NE 58½ *OVER*
472 GB -3 *

11/30 8:30 PM
473 DEN -2½ over
474 KC 49½ *

12/01 8:30 PM
475 MIA -6½ ***
476 NYJ 41½ UNDER

NYJ DE Wilkerson OUT
NYJ QB Smith starts

Thursday, November 27, 2014

2014 - week 13 - TNF - picks

Thanksgiving weekend...

I'm picking more on instinct than anything else as I've had very little time to go thru week 12 games...
If I have the time, I'll be back to refine my picks....

11/27 12:30 PM
305 CHI 47½ UNDER
306 DET -7 *

11/27 4:30 PM
307 PHI 56½ *
308 DAL -3½ under

11/27 8:30 PM
309 SEA 39½ UNDER
310 SF -1½ *

2014 - week 12 - results

Ouch, missed another TNF pick, OAK breaks their 0-fer streak and wins the first half in a RAIN deluge. The game drys out in Q3 but it's not enough for KC as OAK takes control of the game. Really nice home upset for OAK. KC OL was having a tough time in the first half.

As far as the rest of the weekend I did fairly well ATS and for totals...

DIV games:
GB @MIN, DAL @NYG, (closer than expected)
NYJ @BUF, (bigger blowout than expected - though with the venue and time change MNF @DET, this game had more variables, there was also the snow storm for BUF and 'less practice time', I wonder if the more rest thing for BUF players was truly the beneficial angle that wasn't mention by the media)

InterConference games:
TB @CHI - a curious game CHI scores 21 pts all in Q3, the rest of the game CHI doesn't do much...
WAS @SF - highly surprising as a much closer game than expected, WAS played UP and SF DOWN

2014 - week 12  results

Friday, November 21, 2014

2014 - week 12 - the rest of the week - picks


11/23 1:00 PM
251 CLE 47 *
252 ATL -3 over

11/23 1:00 PM
253 TEN 48½ UNDER
254 PHI -11 *

11/23 1:00 PM
255 DET 48 UNDER
256 NE -7 **

11/23 1:00 PM
257 GB -9½ **
258 MIN 48½ UNDER


11/23 1:00 PM
259 JAC 50½ under
260 IND -14 *

11/23 1:00 PM
261 CIN 43½ *
262 HOU -1½ *UNDER*

11/23 1:00 PM
263 NYJ 39 *
264 BUF -3½ OVER

due to snow, game moved to DET MON

11/23 1:00 PM
265 TB 46½ *
266 CHI -5½ under

11/23 4:05 PM
267 ARI 42 under
268 SEA -6½ *

11/23 4:05 PM
269 STL 43½ ***
270 SD -5 under

11/23 4:25 PM
271 MIA 48½ *
272 DEN -7 *under*

WC 27

11/23 4:25 PM
273 WAS 44 UNDER
274 SF -9 *****

11/23 8:30 PM
275 DAL -3½ *
276 NYG 47½ OVER

11/24 8:30 PM
277 BAL 50 ****
278 NO -3½ under

Thursday, November 20, 2014

2014 - week 12 - TNF - picks

hmmm, what to say???

11/20 8:25 PM
109 KC -7 *
110 OAK 42½ **UNDER**

could you really look at the home team?

2014 - week 11 - results

Yeah I probably put too much thought into TNF game. I should've picked under w/two D teams, but I was correct for nearly 3Q as BUF was winning ATS for much of the game, but MIA turned it on mid-way thru Q3 and took over the game. BUF O was stifled and their D played well except for dumb plays, like bumping the ref. Really stupid, to give yourself a chance on the road you have to play smart, nearly penalty free for a team like BUF, who have red zone woes.  I didn't give MIA much of a chance since they just lost their LT Albert and their starting CB Finnegan. On 4 days notice, shuffled their O line and won, that in itself is impressive especially against a very active DL like BUF which got 5 sacks for the game and 6 QB hits. Their new CB Taylor started his first game in his second season of the NFL and did fairly well, though play calling and execution by BUF O is still lacking... I'll say it QB Orton has regressed to the point he's just like his rival QB Manuel...

2014 - week 11 - results

As you can see just a .500 ATS week and slightly above .500 for totals....

Friday, November 14, 2014

2014 - week 11 - the rest of the week - picks



11/16 1:00 PM
451 HOU 42 UNDER
452 CLE -3 *

HOU QB Mallet starts
HOU RB Foster ?

11/16 1:00 PM
453 MIN 46½ **
454 CHI -3 OVER


11/16 4:25 PM
455 PHI 55 under?
456 GB -5½ *

strength vs strength game

11/16 1:00 PM
457 SEA 42½ over
458 KC -1½ *

nearly identical L4G O and D eff stats

11/16 1:00 PM
459 ATL 46½ *
460 CAR -1½ OVER

CAR D is good for QBrating

11/16 1:00 PM
461 CIN 50 under
462 NO -7 *

CIN O trending DOWN

11/16 1:00 PM
463 TB 45½ under
464 WAS -7 *

TB will need to surprise everyone to win
WAS D 13%> TB D
WAS O 11%> TB D

11/16 1:00 PM
465 DEN -9½ *
466 STL 51 UNDER

STL QB Hill starts
STL O trending DOWN
STL O needs a spark or ???

11/16 1:00 PM
467 SF -4 ****
468 NYG 43½ under?

NYG D trending DOWN

11/16 4:05 PM
469 OAK 44½ *
470 SD -10 over

just a hunch OAK should be playing hard for this game, trying to avoid the series

11/16 4:25 PM
471 DET 41½ *
472 ARI -1½ ***UNDER***

ARI QB Stanton starts

11/16 8:30 PM
473 NE 58 *
474 IND -3 **over**

Playoff preview?

11/17 8:30 PM
475 PIT -6 *****
476 TEN 47 UNDER

TEN TE Walker OUT?
TEN QB Mettenberger 3rd start

2014 - week 11 - TNF - picks

Whhoooops, forgot to post pick for TNF... and I outsmarted myself.... sigh...

11/13 8:25 PM
309 BUF 42 *
310 MIA -6 over

BUF 3-0 L3G vs MIA

Wednesday, November 12, 2014

2014 - week 10 - results

My best results so far this season and I'm getting closer to the season ATS .500 region.
PIT @NYJ, did surprise me a bit, guess I should have looked at the numbers harder and I would've notice'd PIT road record, which hasn't been good this season. Combine that with NYJ QB Vick performance from week 9 and I could've easily picked NYJ at home w/an efficient Vick at QB. The one thing that really stands out is that NYJ sat down their rookie safety Pryor and started a 3yr NFL veteran Jarrett. Though he doesn't have many starts prior to this game, he did play in more than enough games with NYJ 13 and PHI 11-12 seasons. Hindsight is 20-20 and it really looks like Jarrett should have started the season, but I guess those in charge at NYJ chose to see if their rookie pick would stand up, but after 9 weeks they gave up on their rookie experiment.

Other games of note, I'm pretty sure I read somewhere that MIA is 0-5 SU @DET, now make it 0-6.
The SF at NO game is a bit of a head scratcher for me as well and if you didn't notice NFC South is 1-3 for this past weekend (someone had to win the ATL at TB tilt) and ATL swept their division series.

2014 - week 10 - results

Friday, November 07, 2014

2014 - week 10 - the rest of the weekend - picks



trying something new... well at least for me...

11/09 1:00 PM
251 DAL -7 ****
252 JAC 45 *UNDER*

@Wembley Stadium, London, England
JAC O needs to make a leap for me to pick

11/09 1:00 PM
253 MIA 43½ **
254 DET -3 under

DET WR Johnson returns (missed 4 wks)

11/09 1:00 PM
255 KC -2½ ***
256 BUF 41½ OVER


11/09 1:00 PM
257 SF 48½ over
258 NO -4½ *

Offenses heading in opposite directions
Defenses also? if so NO holds edge

11/09 1:00 PM
259 TEN 44 UNDER
260 BAL -10 *

TEN QB Mettenberger (2nd start)
It's clear BAL should win SU, will they win ATS?

11/09 1:00 PM
261 PIT -5 ***
262 NYJ 45½ OVER


11/09 1:00 PM
263 ATL -2½ ***
264 TB 46 *under*

TB QB McCown starts
?QB carousel?

11/09 4:05 PM
265 DEN -11½ *
266 OAK 49½ over

11/09 4:25 PM
267 STL 43 OVER
268 ARI -7 *

11/09 4:25 PM
269 NYG 44½ *under*
270 SEA -9 *

NYG overall dinged up
SEA OL dinged up
really tempted to take pts
changed pick back to SEA/Under from NYG/Under

11/09 8:30 PM
271 CHI 53 OVER
272 GB -7½ **


11/10 8:30 PM
273 CAR 48 UNDER
274 PHI -6 *

CAR OL 'their worst OL ever'
PHI OL shuffle, LG/RG
PHI QB Sanchez starts

Thursday, November 06, 2014

2014 - week 10 - TNF - picks

CLE has had close games vs it's division rivals this year, expect another one vs CIN...

11/06 8:25 PM
109 CLE 45 *
110 CIN -6 UNDER

2014 - week 09 - results

TNF, CAR is now 1-4 and NO 5-4 SU, unsure what their ATS records are for TNF. I reviewed teams performances over this season at home for CAR and on the road for NO and thought under was appropriate. Those last 2 1/2 minutes of Q2 really killed any of CAR chances. If CAR is to get any better, their QB Newton really needs to learn to throw with more touch on his 'short' throws.

Ouch another week of sub .500 ATS (6-7) and just above .500 for totals (7-6) sigh....
2014 - week 09 - results

For the season, I'm now slightly above .500 for Totals and sinking fast ATS....

Saturday, November 01, 2014

2014 - week 09 - the rest of the weekend picks

a bit late posting...

11/02 1:00 PM
451 SD 45 *
452 MIA -2½ over

SD CB Verett OUT
TO dif SD +4 MIA +2

11/02 1:00 PM
453 JAC 43 *
454 CIN -11 under

CIN MLB Maualuga OUT?
CIN SU @home 12-0-1

11/02 1:00 PM
455 TB 43½ *UNDER*
456 CLE -6½ ****

TB trades safety Barron to STL (odd?)
and LB Casilla to NE
TO dif TB-4 CLE+6
TB OL 10 sacks L2G 'ole', no push for R

11/02 1:00 PM
457 WAS 43½ under
458 MIN -1 *

TO dif WAS -8 MIN -1
WAS QB Griffin starts?

11/02 1:00 PM
459 PHI -2 over
460 HOU 48½ *

TO dif PHI -7 HOU +4

11/02 1:00 PM
461 NYJ 41½ under
462 KC -10 *

NYJ QB Vick starts
KC QB Smith shoulder? out?
TO dif NYJ -15 KC -2

11/02 1:00 PM
463 ARI 46½ *
464 DAL -3½ over

TO dif ARI +9 DAL -2

11/02 4:05 PM
465 STL 44 UNDER
466 SF -10 ****

STL injuries to RG, RT
STL OL shuffle
TO dif STL-3 SF +4

11/02 4:25 PM
467 DEN -3 *
468 NE 54½ OVER

WC=29? WIND 10-20
TO dif DEN +4 NE +11
NE 13-0 @home reg season

11/02 4:25 PM
469 OAK 43 UNDER
470 SEA -15½ *

TO dif OAK -7 SEA +1

11/02 8:30 PM
471 BAL -1 OVER
472 PIT 48 *

WC=32? WIND 6-11
TO dif BAL 0 PIT +1

11/03 8:30 PM
473 IND -3 *
474 NYG 51 under

TO dif IND -1 NYG 0

Thursday, October 30, 2014

2014 - week 09 - TNF - picks

not really into this game.... since it's on NFL Network I can't watch it live... sigh...

10/30 8:25 PM
301 NO -3 under
302 CAR 49½ *

no real reason as to why, I take the home team and the under.

2014 - week 08 - results

Ouch!, really sucked ATS going 4-11, I was above .500 for totals, but this is making it tough to get above .500 ATS.

2014 - week 08 - results

Friday, October 24, 2014

2014 - week 08 - the rest of the weekend picks

Generally teams that lose their Center, tend to lose their next game and SEA and CLE held true to form, only SD did not follow suit this season...  did any else notice that ATL has lost their Center?

Going into Bye week (GiB) = ATL BUF CHI DET GB TEN
Coming off Bye week (CoB) = PHI TB

10/25 update watching SEA @STL week 07, you notice that STL O can run on SEA D. Maybe STL is playing way UP for the SB champs, but if not, then STL has turned the corner and SEA has too many injuries to overcome.
Changing pick STL @KC from KC/Over to STL/Over

10/26 9:30 AM
251 DET -4 ***
252 ATL 46½ UNDER

ATL free fall, injuries...

10/26 1:00 PM
253 MIN 42 *
254 TB -3 UNDER

conservative O's?
edge MIN D

10/26 1:00 PM
255 CHI 50 *over*
256 NE -6 *

CHI turmoil?
NE injuries?
NE plays well at home, will they cover?

10/26 1:00 PM
257 STL 43½ *
258 KC -7 *over

KC returns for a home game, the fans will be UP as it's been 3 weeks between games. Both teams coming off impressive wins, KC @SD, SEA @STL
10/25 changed pick from KC/Over to STL/Over

10/26 1:00 PM
259 SEA -5 *
260 CAR 44½ ***OVER***

SEA D has given up 28,30,17,20,30 L5G
CAR D has given up 38,37,24,38,37 L5G
I'm thinking SEA w/2 consecutive losses will be more focused

10/26 1:00 PM
261 BUF 40½ *UNDER*
262 NYJ -3 *

BUF RB's Jackson and Spiller OUT
two run teams??? or just BUF?

10/26 1:00 PM
263 MIA -6 UNDER
264 JAC 43 *

MIA can't get a good ID on them, they've surprised with their G1 win over NE and not much else. MIA should win, but I suspect TO's will keep this game closer.
JAC has been steadily progressing over the past 7 games and finally getting a win last week. Has JAC crested? reached their plateau? or is their more?

10/26 1:00 PM
265 HOU -2 *
266 TEN 42½ UNDER

TEN QB Mettenberger starts (rookie)
Mentally for TEN, since this game will mark the halfway point of the season, I don't see this as a good sign, more of a we gotta see what we have with our rookie QB

10/26 1:00 PM
267 BAL 45½ ****
268 CIN -1½ under

CIN O-n-D inj's
BAL should split their series as CIN Won the first game...

10/26 4:05 PM
269 PHI 48 *
270 ARI -2½ ***OVER***

ARI has a talented 2ndary, PHI should run the ball more. But this game appears to be in the 12-13 possession realm for each team. If it each team scores on 4 possessions (roughly 1/3) this should go easily over the total

10/26 4:25 PM
271 IND -3 ***
272 PIT 48½ *OVER*

PIT has to play keep away from IND to win, which I don't think they can do

10/26 4:25 PM
273 OAK 44 *****
274 CLE -7 under

OAK appears to be progressing and I think CLE is regressing due to injuries...

10/26 8:30 PM
275 GB 55½ *****
276 NO -1½ *OVER*

NO better than NFL average, but GB is nearing elite range. NO w/2 wins is better than many 3 and 4 wins teams, it's just running into a buzzsaw w/GB

10/27 8:30 PM
277 WAS 50 under
278 DAL -9 *****

unless WAS QB McCoy brings alot more consistency to their O, this game should be a blowout even if it's a division rivalry game

Thursday, October 23, 2014

2014 - week 08 - TNF - picks

I've been busy, but looks like I'll be able to post prior to game...
I'm going against the OVER trend and even though this is a division rivalry game, I'm giving up the points...

10/23 8:25 PM
103 SD 51½ *UNDER*
104 DEN -8 *

SD appears to be beat up

2014 - week 07 - results

The favorite/over trend for TNF ended this week, with NYJ run O having their way for the most part until they got inside of the 20. Call NYJ a 20's team...

OK results, but I could've been better, well at least I'm over .500 ATS and Totals...

2014 - week 07 - results

Friday, October 17, 2014

2014 - week 07 - the rest of the weekend picks

10/18 update changed pick from JAC/Under to CLE/Over

10/19 1:00 PM
451 CIN 49½ OVER
452 IND -3 **

10/19 1:00 PM
453 TEN 45½ OVER
454 WAS -5½ *

WAS QB Griffin returns

10/19 1:00 PM
455 MIA 48 under
456 CHI -3 *

10/19 1:00 PM
457 CLE -5 **
458 JAC 45 *over*

changed pick from JAC/Under to CLE/Over

10/19 1:00 PM
459 SEA -7 *
460 STL 43½ UNDER

10/19 1:00 PM
461 CAR 49 *
462 GB -7 **OVER**

10/19 1:00 PM
463 ATL 49½ UNDER
464 BAL -7 ***

10/19 1:00 PM
465 MIN 42½ ***UNDER***
466 BUF -5½ *

10/19 1:00 PM
467 NO 48½ *
468 DET -3 *UNDER*

10/19 4:05 PM
469 KC 44½ OVER
470 SD -4 ***

10/19 4:25 PM
471 NYG 48 UNDER
472 DAL -6 ****

10/19 4:25 PM
473 ARI -3½ *
474 OAK 44½ OVER

10/19 8:30 PM
475 SF 50½ OVER
476 DEN -6½ *

10/20 8:30 PM
477 HOU 44½ *
478 PIT -3½ over

Thursday, October 16, 2014

2014 - week 07 - TNF - picks

So why not stick with the Favorite/Over combo trend???

10/16 8:25 PM
303 NYJ 44½ OVER
304 NE -9½ **


2014 - week 06 - results

The Favorite/Over combo won again for TNF, this must be killing the sports books at the local casinos. I wonder when will they start increasing the spread to better than a TD + FG? So why didn't I take the over, I was thinking along the lines that HOU O would shuffle along. I didn't expect the first half outburst by IND. HOU O did become predictable again when Fitzpatrick had to make a play to win at the end of the game, you knew it was going to happen.

My pre-weekend thoughts:
I wonder if STL run D will put up a fight vs SF run O? Will CAR @CIN be interesting? I'm thinking ATL is such a homer team. Will ARI with all their injuries finally succumb? Will PHI luck run out? Will CLE luck run out? DET @MIN, Caldwell and Co @Zimmer and Co...  Will BUF shutdown NE?

Ouch! I was doing fine with the first 5 games, but then I was stomped upon by ATS and total gods...
NE decides it owns the AFC East, BUF is a pretender
CLE dog pound is barking up a storm, PIT will be lucky to be 8-8 SU this season
CAR at CIN ending in a tie, CAR O on the road surprising me
GB at MIA game much closer than anticipated same goes for SD at OAK
DAL pulls off a shocker at SEA
CHI with an entire new LB corp starting, wins on the road, ATL will be lucky to get to 8-8 SU as well
ARI also with new starters and return of QB Palmer, shows great depth
NYG falls on it's face on SNF - really ugly, embarrassing for them

2014 - week 06 - results

Friday, October 10, 2014

2014 - week 06 - the rest of the weekend picks

a short week for me as I'll be busy Saturday and Sunday, sigh... thus this early posting....



10/12 1:00 PM
251 DEN 9½ *
252 NYJ 47½ under

10/12 1:00 PM
253 PIT 47 *
254 CLE -1½ ***OVER***

CLE OLB/DE Kruger OUT? back?
CLE CB Haden OUT? hip?
CLE DE Winn OUT? leg?
Normally I just go with the season split for division games and since PIT won the first game at home, CLE should win this game right? But I'm taking a chance... 

10/12 1:00 PM
255 JAC 43 *
256 TEN -4 over

TEN LT Lewan starts (rookie)

10/12 4:25 PM
257 CHI 54½ *OVER*
258 ATL -3 *

10/12 1:00 PM
259 GB -3½ ***
260 MIA 49 over

MIA SS Jones returns (susp'd 4G)

10/12 1:00 PM
261 DET 43½ *
262 MIN -1½ *under*

I keep flip-flop'g with this game, no real feel for either team

10/12 1:00 PM
263 CAR 43½ UNDER
264 CIN -6½ *

CAR lucky last week?

10/12 1:00 PM
265 NE -3 over
266 BUF 45½ *

10/12 1:00 PM
267 BAL -3 *
268 TB 43 over

10/12 4:05 PM
269 SD -7 ***
270 OAK 43 under

10/12 4:25 PM
271 DAL 47 over
272 SEA -8 *

10/12 4:25 PM
273 WAS 45½ *
274 ARI -3 *under

ARI QB Logan starts?
ARI beat up...

10/12 8:30 PM
275 NYG 50½ *****
276 PHI -3 over

NYG RB Jennings OUT

10/13 8:30 PM
277 SF -3½ *
278 STL 43½ under

Thursday, October 09, 2014

2014 - week 06 - TNF - picks

This week a division match up...
I'm unsure if HOU will score more than 10-13pts...

10/09 8:25 PM
101 IND -3 *
102 HOU 46½ *UNDER*

2014 - week 05 - results

Another TNF blow out game. The home team is 4-1 SU this year
The winner is easily covering the spread with at least a 20 pt win.

GB 16  @SEA 36  HFO
PIT 6  @BAL 26  HFU
TB 14  @ATL 56  HFO
NYG 45 @WAS 14  RDO
MIN 10 @GB 42   HFO

That's 4 wins for the home team, the favored and OVER the total. If you had made separate bets for Home, Favored and Over, you would've won all three for 3 of the past 5 weeks, won two in week 2 and won 1 in week 4. That's a really good winning percentage for winning 12 of 15 bets.

I know, I know most people would not bet three separate bets on TNF and choose instead to bet just two bets, either HO or FO, but you would still have an impressive winning percentage on 8 of 10 bets.

As for my picks, I picked the total correctly for weeks 1,2,4 and I've picked the side correctly for weeks 3-5. Only for week 4 did I pick both the side and total correctly. So I'm 6 of 10 so far, not bad, but could be better.

This year for whatever reason, I think I'm picking the sides better, but I'm just not zoned in on the totals, really odd or maybe it's a combination of new officiating crews (the biggest turnover in decades that I can recall), the enforcement of the holding calls and new rules, plus really watching only the TNF and SNF editions live (MNF are iffy for me) of NFL football.

2014 - week 05 - results
This season it took me until week 05 to post a record (W-L) over .500 ATS and for totals as well.
As for the season totals, I'm just below .500 ATS and just over .500 for the totals, so am I really doing better ATS this season? hmmmm... I think I'll reserve judgement until we reach the season's halfway point.

I'm L/L for both BAL @IND and ARI @DEN. ARI starting QB was injured during the game and their backup QB stunk it up, DEN just rode big MO the rest of the way...  As for BAL I wonder if this is just a down week or have some issues caught up with them? IND is looking like a formidable threat to make more than just first round noise in the playoffs this year. DEN is already there and SD if they can stay healthy looks to be a top contender as well for the AFC

I did have 5 games of W/W ATS/totals and the rest were split either W/L or L/W.

Teams Coming off a Bye (CoB) week have a 2-4 W-L SU record and a 3-3 W-L ATS record
Teams Going into a Bye (GiB) week have a 1-1 W-L SU record and a 1-1 W-L ATS record, so far this season team GiB have split 4-4 SU and ATS records. So no trending at all for the 7 GiB teams and it doesn't look like there will be any advantage tracking CoB's as well.

Friday, October 03, 2014

3Game/4Game streaks for week 5

The underlined header is the angle/type of bet, for instance;

over/3G/ = 3 game streak of over the total for the team(s) listed below
home/3G/ = 3 game streak of the home team winning ATS for the team(s) listed below
fav/3G/ = 3 game streak of the favorite winning for the team(s) listed below
ATSwin/3G/ = 3 game streak of ATS win for the team(s) listed below

over over
3G 4G

under under
3G 4G

home home
3G 4G

road road
3G 4G

fav fav
3G 4G

dog dog
3G 4G

ATSwin ATSwin
3G 4G

ATSloss ATSloss
3G 4G

(DEN doesn't really have a 3 game streak of losing ATS, but they also don't have a 3 game streak for winning either)

KC @SF, this weekend, will KC win the $?

BUF @DET, a 3 game and a 4 game UNDER the total streak

ARI @DEN, 3 game UNDER the total streak (x2)

STL @PHI, a 3 game road streak and a 3 game dog streak, will STL win the $?

One of these streaks will be broken:
Either - NYJ 3G road streak or SD 4G ATSwin streak
Either - BAL 3G favorite streak or BAL 3G ATS win streak

2014 - week 05 - the rest of the weekends picks

Coming off bye COB

10/05 1:00 PM
451 CHI 45½ *
452 CAR -2½ over

CHI starters returning?
CHI DE Allen returns
CAR RB Reaves starts? or is it Ogbonnaya?

10/05 1:00 PM
453 CLE 44½ *
454 TEN -1½ under

CLE RB Tate starts?
TEN QB Locker starts (coming off wrist injury)

10/05 1:00 PM
455 STL 48 over
456 PHI -7 *

STL QB Davis starts
PHI RT Johnson returns (from susp)

10/05 1:00 PM
457 ATL 50½ under
458 NYG -4 *****

ATL OL shuffle x3?
ATL WR Jones? ST Hester?
ATL LB Shembo? FS Ishmael?

10/05 1:00 PM
459 TB 48½ ****
460 NO -10½ over

TB looks like a lot of points
NO plays better at home
NO O and D need to play a complete game

10/05 1:00 PM
461 HOU 46½ under
462 DAL -6 *

10/05 1:00 PM
463 BUF 44 under
464 DET -7 **

BUF QB Orton starts
BUF DT Williams? WLB Bradham?

10/05 1:00 PM
465 BAL 48½ ***
466 IND -3½ over

IND FS Landry susp'd 4G

10/05 1:00 PM
467 PIT -6½ ****
468 JAC 47 UNDER

10/05 4:05 PM
469 ARI 48½ *
470 DEN -7½ UNDER

ARI should play keep away...
ARI QB Stanton starts

10/05 4:25 PM
471 KC 44 **
472 SF -6 UNDER

KC LT Stephenson returns  (from susp)

10/05 4:25 PM
473 NYJ 43½ UNDER
474 SD -6½ ***

NYJ WR x2? x3? injured

10/05 8:30 PM
475 CIN -1 ****
476 NE 46 over


10/06 8:30 PM
477 SEA -7 ***
478 WAS 45½ over

WAS QB Cousins starts

Thursday, October 02, 2014

2014 - week 05 - TNF - picks

So who starts for MIN? QB Bridgewater? or QB Ponder?
Will it make that much of a difference?

10/02 8:25 PM
301 MIN 47½ under
302 GB -8 *

MIN QB Ponder? Bridgewater?
So GB should win SU, but ATS? hmmmm?
MIN must play keep away, "run, run and short pass'g"
if they do I suspect under the total will win

Tuesday, September 30, 2014

2014 - week 04 - results

Mixed results, 8-5 ATS which is good, but 3-10 totals which is just awful....
If I had stayed with my first instincts for GB @CHI, I would have one more win, one less loss or 9-4 ATS...
A bit surprised by HOU, I thought you could run on their D as NYG did make their DL look bad at times in week 3.
I would never have expected TB to win at PIT, highly unexpected and thus a true UPSET IMO
I was being a bit pig headed with MIA at OAK, these overseas game at Wembley stadium, really favors the road team...
ATL at MIN, is another upset, but after examing the game, it's the injuries to ATL on OL, (Center and RG) as well as at strong safety that turned the tide in favor of MIN, that and MIN QB Bridgewater having an outstanding game in his debut as a starting QB (too bad he was injured as well, but the game was already in MIN favor by then) as well as a team that appeared to be motivated at home. I guess you could also factor in ATL a dome team on the road on a grass surface, out doors as a combo factor in their loss.
I was surprised a bit with the total for PHI at SF ending UNDER the total.

2014 - week 04 - results

Saturday, September 27, 2014

2014 - week 04 - rest of the week - picks

I may change my mind again....
update 9/27 changed pick from GB/Over to CHI/Over

09/28 1:00 PM
251 MIA -4½ **UNDER**
252 OAK 40½ *

This game is at Wembley Stadium, London, England which should favor the road team, except MIA is not playing well and OAK has a D and a viable O.
Notes: OAK has been in London since Monday
MIA following normal road team routine, leave on Thursday night

09/28 1:00 PM
253 GB -1½ ***OVER***
254 CHI 49½ *

CHI 2ndary beat up and more
if GB couldn't go into DET and beat them, what stops them from doing the same in CHI?
GB RT Bulaga returns?
CHI ST weakness?
GB history of 'rebound' after strugglin' loss
changed pick from GB/Over to CHI/Over

09/28 1:00 PM
255 BUF 41 *
256 HOU -3 over

HOU does play better at home, but NYG ran on them, I think BUF will do the same and stop HOU O from running as well
HC's know each other really well
starting to waffle on this one, very similiar teams
in that they need their D and ST to win and O to perform moderately. Neither can come back, so they should be looking to front run again to notch another victory
With ST injuries to both teams, we may see much better than normal field position for each team, thus I'm think'g the total might be easier vs side.
If I knew that HOU will feed RB Blue, I'd give them the edge, but last week vs NYG was really odd for me to see.
BUF gets the edge right now, their D can stop the run, 
Can HOU D stop the run even w/their recent p/u of NT Pickett?

09/28 1:00 PM
257 TEN 45½ UNDER
258 IND -7½ ****

IND should be favored by 2TDs, any other questions?
IND D numerous injuries
TEN QB Whitehurst starts, if he does well, I would sit Locker.
IND O should be running all over TEN D

09/28 1:00 PM
259 CAR 41 UNDER
260 BAL -3 ***

just thinking BAL WR Smith will be way UP for this game
CAR OL has issues...
BAL LT Hurst starts (rookie)

09/28 1:00 PM
261 DET -1½ *
262 NYJ 45 over?

CHI beat NYJ at home, can another NFC North team do NYJ in?
DET new Kicker Henery

09/28 1:00 PM
263 TB 44½ *UNDER*
264 PIT -7½ **

does anyone think TB will hang within 3TDs?

09/28 4:05 PM
265 JAC 44½ **UNDER**
266 SD -13 ***

JAC QB Bortles starts? It won't matter...

09/28 4:25 PM
267 PHI 50½ *
268 SF -5½ over

PHI has been having it's way, coming back in the 2nd half, I wonder if that stops here?
2 teams  opposite directions?
a tale of two halves
SF 1st half team
PHI 2nd half team
PHI has played 3 different games defensively

09/28 4:25 PM
269 ATL -3 **
270 MIN 46½ UNDER

I was thinking this was a dome team game, but was gently reminded of MIN new temporary digs. MIN new QB, RB, new low?

09/28 8:30 PM
271 NO -3 **OVER**
272 DAL 53 *

Hoping for a game of fireworks, but if DAL has any brains, it's run on NO..

09/29 8:30 PM
273 NE -3½ ***UNDER***
274 KC 45 *

I'm surprised the spread isn't more

Thursday, September 25, 2014

2014 - week 04 - TNF - picks

Over the total seems to be the sensible play.....
I know, I'm picking against an early season trend of the home team winning ATS & SU on Thursday Night Football, but taking the points in division games is a normal thing for me..

rest of the weekend to follow...

09/25 8:25 PM
101 NYG 45½ *
102 WAS -3½ OVER

WAS appears to be more beat up than NYG

2014 - week 03 - results

Much better results than past two weeks. I hope to get better....

NYG O,D,ST finally get going, HOU O sputters too much, middle of D can't stop run
PIT really surprises me with domination of CAR. CAR QB Newton should sit until he heals, he seems much more tentative
Superbowl rematch w/DEN @SEA, and I couldn't get the side or total correct

2014 - week 03 results

Saturday, September 20, 2014

2014 * Offense - Defense (Efficiency & QB Ratings) * week 02

2014 * Offense - Defense * week 02

1st column 'team', 2nd column 'Offense-Defense Efficiency', 3rd column 'number of wins', 4th column 'Offense-Defense QB ratings' this is kept in larger columns for each division

The teams are sorted by efficiency first, wins, QB ratings (NFL)

It's a little tough to see, but after two weeks of games there are surprises. The biggest surprise among 2-0 teams is HOU, but considering their opponents so far, (WAS & OAK) the numbers look really good for them. In this early part of the season, HOU is way a UP there in the clouds.

The biggest pretender among 2-0 teams is PHI, some will argue BUF or ARI, but the numbers state PHI. Needing two second half comebacks also seems to play into the numbers skewing against PHI.

Among the 0-2 teams, KC appears to be among the bottom 5 in the league, hovering nearby is also PIT, another team that may be in for a long season as well. The teams performing the best with 0-2 records are NO and IND. Their numbers are comparable to a number of 1-1 teams, I expect them to step on up some time soon, this week? next week?

Injuries have really curtailed the performance of some teams. Either injuries to key players or just a multitude of injuries have been too much for some teams to overcome. What's really noticeable to me is the disparity between the good and bad teams in their divisions. HOU and CAR have huge edges at this time. The NFC North appears to have the most parity among themselves. The toughest division is again the NFC West, with no team posting a negative efficiency and only STL with a negative QB rating.

It's still early in the season, I need to remember to post another snapshot after week 4 as a quarter of the season will have be decided and a clearer picture will emerge.

Friday, September 19, 2014

2014 - week 03 - rest of the week picks

So Thursday was a thrashing for the whole football world to see, pretty boring if you ask me...

9/20 UPDATE: changed pick GB/Over to DET/Over
9/20 UPDATE: changed pick PHI/Over to WAS/Over
9/20 UPDATE: changed pick MIA/Under to KC/Over
9/20 UPDATE: changed pick DAL/Under to STL/Over

09/21 1:00 PM
451 SD 44 **
452 BUF -2½ UNDER

SD coming off a high beating SEA SB champs on the road
so they should be able to beat BUF right?

09/21 1:00 PM
453 DAL -1 *over
454 STL 44½ *

I wonder if DAL is a road warrior this year? SU this year so far 0-1 @home, 1-0 on the road
changed pick from DAL/Under to STL/Over
STL looks like they will run the ball, STL QB Davis appears to be fairly accurate
STL should be motivated w/last year's loss to DAL

09/21 1:00 PM
455 WAS 50½ *
456 PHI -6½ *over

if the NFC East are homer teams then this fits the billing
well so far, only WAS fits the homer profile so far
change pick from PHI/Over to WAS/Over

09/21 1:00 PM
457 HOU -1½ ***
458 NYG 41½ under

another cupcake on HOU schedule, see vsWAS wk1 @OAK wk2

09/21 1:00 PM
459 MIN 49½ over
460 NO -10 **

NO CB Robinson is getting beat regularly, so I think MIN should be able to move the ball, but can they do it consistently. I like the side much more than the total

09/21 1:00 PM
461 TEN 42½ UNDER
462 CIN -7 ***

TEN really surprised me in week 1, but KC does have injury issues. CIN looks like cream of the crop at this time

09/21 1:00 PM
463 BAL -1½ *
464 CLE 41½ under

This is a gauge game for CLE, BAL has had 10 days to prep. 
Under the total maybe the best bet as both teams have stout Ds and try to run the ball consistently. I see FGs....

09/21 1:00 PM
465 GB 52½ *OVER*
466 DET -2½ *

GB has a lot of early season injuries, DET still plays like a young team, so maybe at home they'll get the win. I like the total to go way over...
changing pick from GB/Over to DET/Over

09/21 1:00 PM
467 IND -7 over
468 JAC 45½ *

One of these 0-2 teams has to win, IND should win, I'm unsure if they'll cover. JAC should be playing way up for this div game.

09/21 1:00 PM
469 OAK 47 under
470 NE -14 **

just what the doctor ordered for NE, another cupcake...

09/21 4:05 PM
471 SF -3 *UNDER*
472 ARI 42 *

another defensive slugfest, I think I'll take the points

09/21 4:25 PM
473 DEN 48 **
474 SEA -5½ over

OOooo a SB rematch and the champs lost a game last week.
So if DEN has the formula to beat SEA, can they execute it?

09/21 4:25 PM
475 KC 42½ *
476 MIA -4 *over*

it's hard to take KC with all their early season injuries
changed pick from MIA/Under to KC/Over

09/21 8:30 PM
477 PIT 41½ UNDER
478 CAR -3½ **

PIT has had 10 days to prep, but CAR D is better than BAL

09/22 8:35 PM
479 CHI 45½ *
480 NYJ -3 OVER

it's MNF and NYJ Offense should be able to score, I just don't know if their secondary will keep up with the Marshalls and Jefferies...

Thursday, September 18, 2014

2014 - week 03 - TNF picks

Just can't find the time to pick all this weeks game at the moment, so for now here's Thursday picks and rest will follow
09/18 8:25 PM
301 TB 47 UNDER
302 ATL -6 ***

TB HC Smith lost confidence? in QB McCown?

Tuesday, September 16, 2014

2014 - week 02 - results

What a weekend, I sucked again, guess it shows when I don't get to watch enough games. I'm glad I've been only picking side and totals... (and not doing anything else).

With the recent news of MIN RB Peterson deactivated the day before the game, my guess it was a deflater for the team, since a realistic backup for All-Day is still a major drop off.
Unlike CAR which also had a late deactivation of DE Greg Hardy, but they have replacements.
The other situation worth mentioning is the suspension of xBAL RB Ray Rice, which I believed occurred last Sunday on game day for BAL and may have affected them for their game vs CIN, but by the time the Thursday game had rolled around BAL had rallied around each other and soundly defeated PIT.
MIA has a costly emotional win vs NE, last week and this weekend they had to shuffle their front 7 on D and BUF took advantage as well as on ST.

2014 - week 02 - results

Thursday, September 11, 2014

2014 - week 02 - picks

hopefully this week will be better ATS

09/11 8:25 PM
101 PIT 44½ *
102 BAL -3 under


09/14 1:00 PM
251 DET 43½ *
252 CAR -3 *OVER*

09/14 1:00 PM
253 MIA 43½ *
254 BUF -1 *OVER*

LY BUF 2-0 vs MIA, 
wk7 @MIA 23-21
wk16 @BUF 19-0

09/14 1:00 PM
255 JAC 43½ *
256 WAS -6 UNDER

JAC SS Cyprien OUT?
WAS SS Meriweather susp'd G1-2

09/14 1:00 PM
257 DAL 49½ UNDER
258 TEN -3½ *

DAL RCB Scandrick susp'd G1-4
TEN D good scheme

09/14 1:00 PM
259 ARI -2½ ***
260 NYG -42½ UNDER


09/14 1:00 PM
261 NE -3 OVER
262 MIN 49½ **

09/14 1:00 PM
263 NO -6½ *
264 CLE 47½ over

CLE RB Tate knee OUT?
CLE RB West starts
CLE TE Cameron D2D shoulder

09/14 1:00 PM
265 ATL 48½ *OVER
266 CIN -5½ *

CIN TE Eifert elbow OUT
CIN MLB Burfict concussion OUT
switched pick from ATL/O to CIN/O

09/14 4:05 PM
267 STL 37½ UNDER
268 TB -6½ *

STL QB3 Austin starts?
STL DE Long OUT 8+?wks
TB last week slow start, 2nd Half come back
TB LG Mankins OUT? last week Q2 knee

09/14 4:05 PM
269 SEA -6 **
270 SD 44½ under

SD C Hardwick OUT IR-OFY

09/14 4:25 PM
271 HOU -3 *
272 OAK 40 under

HOU DE Clowney OUT

09/14 4:25 PM
273 NYJ 46½ UNDER
274 GB -8½ ***

09/14 4:25 PM
275 KC 51 UNDER?
276 DEN -12½ *

KC LB D Johnson IR OFY
DEN WR Welker susp'd G1-4

09/14 8:30 PM
277 CHI 48½ **over**
278 SF -7 *

switched pick from CHI/O to SF/O
CHI LG,C,WR2,RB2 inj'd

09/15 8:35 PM
279 PHI 53½ OVER
280 IND -3 *


2014 - week 01 - results

not good enough W-L-P 6-8-2 ATS , very good W-L 11-5 Totals

2014 - week 01 - results

Thursday, September 04, 2014

2014 - week 01 - picks

really unsure with MIN @STL, I could pick either side and total, went with the DOG/Under combo, but I could've picked FAV/U or FAV/O or DOG/O over

09/04 8:30 PM
461 GB 45 *
462 SEA -5½ over

GB O vs SEA D?
SEA O vs GB D?

09/07 1:00 PM
463 NO 52 ****
464 ATL -1 over

NO owns ATL
ATL D have they improved? ?FS?
ATL ST major improvement VETSx3

09/07 1:00 PM
465 MIN 45½ *
466 STL -6 under


09/07 1:00 PM
467 CLE 40½ under
468 PIT -6 ***

CLE a lot of hoopla at QB
PIT owns CLE

09/07 1:00 PM
469 JAC 52 *under 
470 PHI -11 *

JAC D front 4 significant improvement
taking pts seems prudent, but OL???
JAC RT Bradfield a liability?

09/07 1:00 PM
471 OAK 40 under
472 NYJ -5 *

OAK O n D, don't expect much
OAK QB Carr 1st start
NYJ 2ndary, no time to gell

09/07 1:00 PM
473 CIN 43½ *
474 BAL -2½ over?

CIN on the rise?
BAL 2ndary? FS? SS?

09/07 1:00 PM
475 BUF 48½ *UNDER*
476 CHI -6½ *

strength vs strength
BUF D GOOD! O just the opposite
CHI O GOOD! D just the opposite
it's tempting to take BUF
but BUF QB Manuel has accuracy issues

09/07 1:00 PM
477 WAS 46 *UNDER*
478 HOU -2½ *

WAS SS Meriweather susp'd G1-2
HOU O work in progress, D up!?

09/07 1:00 PM
479 TEN 44 UNDER
480 KC -6 ***

TEN O needs to stick w/run game, pass O suspect
TEN D tackling issue
TEN ST most dynamic KR? & PR? Washington & McCluster

09/07 1:00 PM
481 NE -3½ *****
482 MIA 47½ UNDER

MIA O? OL ?????
MIA Air Raid?
note: NE played PHI in preseason and held joint practices, you would think NE is really prep'd

09/07 4:25 PM
483 CAR -1 ****
484 TB 39½ **UNDER**

CAR QB Newton ribs OUT? miss'd Wed
CAR Qb Anderson w/1's on Wed
CAR O? just run? pass?
TB OL ????
TB OC Tedford recovering surgery 10+days ago

09/07 4:25 PM
485 SF -5½ **OVER**
486 DAL 49 *

DAL needs to win high scoring game
SF D doubtful for high scores
SF O ball control?
SF ST much younger TY

09/07 8:30 PM
487 IND 55½ *
488 DEN -7 **under**

IND GcG have nearly no(0) time to gel during PS
IND DE/LB Mathis susp'd G1-4
DEN WR Welker susp'd G1-4

09/08 7:10 PM
489 NYG 46 *over?
490 DET -4 *

DET HC Caldwell, can't trust O

09/08 10:20 PM
491 SD 44½ over
492 ARI -3½ *

SD needs to win high score O games, D porous
SD D can't stop run

Friday, August 29, 2014

2014 - Preseason - week 3 and 4 - results

I don't expect much from preseason due to the varying approaches head coaches will have in preparing their team for the regular season.

For Preseason week 3, I ended up 7-9 ATS and 4-11-1 for Totals

For Preseason week 4, I ended up 8-6-2 ATS and an identical 8-6-2 for Totals

For all of preseason, my record for picks is 33-30-2 ATS and 30-32-2 for Totals, not bad, but not good either. I guess that's fairly consistent for preseason. That's why most bettors won't bet during preseason, their needs to be a really good reason or an 'angle' or two to even think that you have a chance of winning...

Missing storylines for 2014 or I'm making them up right now...

Over at nfl.com, there's a nice article for things to watch for this season - http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000385062/article/xlix-things-to-watch-throughout-the-2014-nfl-season

and I really like it, but it's missing something and that maybe is a predictive outlook from events that have occurred during the off season until now.

The team that jumps out to me is SF, w/the recent suspension of DE/LB Aldon Smith for 9 games, the unavailability of LB Bowman for at least 6 games (much more likely 10-12 games), and the ineffectiveness of the SF offense in preseason, I suspect SF will not reach 10 wins this year.

In fact they may lose their first game of the season @DAL, due to an offense that can't score and a D that can't contain without their All-Pro players. Sure DAL D looks really weak this season, but their O appears to be the best they have had for several seasons. DAL is known to swoon in DEC, not in SEPT. This should be an interesting opener for DAL and SF.

ARI may pull into the #2 slot of the NFC West despite all the unfavorable things that have occurred during the off season. Yes Dockett with his season ending injury and LB Washington with his suspension appears to be eerily similar to SF. That leaves perhaps STL with a window of opportunity and for their well travelled QB Shaun Hill. STL played well at times for the past couple of seasons, but untimely penalties really hampered their efforts. If their youthful players can get into a better mindset, I would believe they will make the ascent to at least the #2 position in the NFC West and perhaps a playoff spot

Another team, that may ascend or descend is ATL. Last season injuries really derailed this team, this season they appear to be much healthier and may challenge NO (who appears to be the top dog in NFC South, due to CAR O looking like a work in progress).

Earlier prior to training camp, I was thinking TB would be on the upswing as well, except this preseason, their OL appears to have some real issues. Though they have recently traded for All-Pro LG Mankins, will this be enough? They also picked up a guard from KC (presumably for RG), but they haven't had time to gell together (due to lateness of acquisitions), which would lead me to believe that TB could be 0-4 (vs CAR, vs STL, @ATL, @PIT) at the start of this season.

It's hard to believe that either NYG will be any better this year, NYJ seems to be in the same realm and I'm afraid the other NY team, BUF, will also be struggling due to O woes. You could also categorize the teams from Florida in this manner as well. JAC, MIA and TB appear to have a better than average defense, but their offense lack that scoring ability with a QB-WR or QB-TE that is insync. They may all need to rely on a running game and here the nod may go to TB or perhaps even JAC over MIA for a decent running game.
California is the only other state with 3 NFL teams and OAK, SF and SD all appear to have issues. OAK may be the bottom of the barrel this year. SD does have an offense, but recent injuries to defense, leads me to believe they'll need to win high scoring games. SF appears ready for the downslope trend, but I may be exaggerating their demise to soon...

just a few thoughts on this upcoming season....

Thursday, August 28, 2014

2014 - Preseason - week 4 - picks

oh well here goes nothing...
08/28 6:00 PM
101 ATL -39½ **UNDER**
102 JAC -3½ *

08/28 7:00 PM
103 DET 41 *
104 BUF -4½ *UNDER*

08/28 7:00 PM
105 IND 42 *UNDER*
106 CIN -2½ *

IND majority of starters OUT

08/28 7:00 PM
107 STL 40 *
108 MIA -3 under

08/28 7:00 PM
109 NYJ 44 OVER
110 PHI -2½ ***

08/28 7:00 PM
111 KC 42½ under
112 GB -3 *****

KC QB Daniels starts
KC most starters OUT
GB QB Flynn starts
GB C Linsley 1st start

08/28 7:30 PM
113 NE 41 under
114 NYG -3 *

NE QB Garoppolo starts Q1-3?-4?

08/28 7:30 PM
115 WAS 39 under
116 TB -2½ *

WAS 0% starters play

08/28 7:30 PM
117 CAR 38 under
118 PIT -5½ *

08/28 8:00 PM
119 MIN 42½ *
120 TEN -1 OVER

08/28 8:00 PM
121 SF 39 ***UNDER***
122 HOU -3½ *

SF QB Kaepernick starts
HOU QB Keenum starts

08/28 8:00 PM
123 CHI 42½ *OVER*
124 CLE -5 *

CHI ST work in progress
CLE O 'disjointed'
CLE OL zone blocking scheme, where are HOLEs?

08/28 8:00 PM
125 BAL 44 over
126 NO -3½ *

NO QB Griffin starts?

08/28 8:00 PM
127 DEN -2 over
128 DAL 44 **

08/28 10:00 PM
129 SEA -5½ over
130 OAK 39 *

08/28 10:00 PM
131 ARI 39½ OVER
132 SD -3 *

Wednesday, August 20, 2014

2014 - Preseason - week 3 - picks

more to come...

08/21 7:30 PM
251 PIT 50 ***
252 PHI -3½ under

PIT QBs Roethlisberger, Gradkowski
PHI QBs Foles, Sanchez
PHI O (starters) preseason, not exactly confidence building and their D is not much better
08/22 7:30 PM
253 JAC 44½ *
254 DET -3½ under

JAC QB2 Bortles to get 1st team reps
JAC QBs Henne, Bortles
DET QBs Stafford, Orlovsky

08/22 7:30 PM
255 CAR 45½ under
256 NE -5½ *

CAR QBs Newton, Anderson
NE QB Brady, Mallett

08/22 7:30 PM
257 NYG 42½ UNDER
258 NYJ pk *

NYG HC Coughlin there's no O production
NYG QB Manning 0 TDs in 3 PS Games
NYG ?worried?
NYG QBs Manning
NYJ QBs Smith, Vick

08/22 8:00 PM
259 OAK 43 UNDER
260 GB -7 *****

OAK 2ndary shredded PSG1-2, even worse this game
OAK QBs Shaub ?Carr? (McGloin)
GB QBs Rodgers, Flynn

08/22 10:00 PM
261 CHI 45 *
262 SEA -7 OVER

CHI QBs Cutler, Clausen
SEA QBs Wilson, ?Jackson?

Monday, August 18, 2014

2014 - Preseason - week 2 - results

A decent week of picks as I ended at 8-8 ATS and 9-7 for totals, but as we all know preseason is really a roll of the dice, with HCs and coordinators, pulling starters or keeping them in longer than planned. It's all off the cuff. Home teams were 10-6 SU, 6-10 ATS, 10-6 O-U totals

2014 - Preseason - week 2 - results

Early Preseason TIER'd ranking

Pre-season TIERed ranking

      CAR ARI A
 PIT      SF A
   SD     B
    DAL    B
BUF    NYG    C

It's always tough to rank teams prior to the season, take the NFC West arguably the toughest division in the NFL. I have ARI above SF, because from watching preseason games, I suspect the 49er's are out of sync, especially on offense and are weaker on defense this season than the prior 4 years.

I may have NO ranked too high due to the absence of their QB Brees, but they are the best in their division. Yes CAR D is formidable a top 5 D, but it's their O that makes you wonder, if they can't sustain their run O, exactly what will the pass O provide? ATL seems to be in the same ship as last year and that was a 4-12 record. TB may have gotten better, but their OL is starting to stink and their front 7 on D really have only McCoy and David, TB maybe a year or two away from a dominating D.

I maybe underestimating CHI, if their D proves to be average, then they'll deserve a higher ranking. MIN is really a big question mark to me, new staff and players haven't gelled in preseason, when will they gell?

PHI is far more balanced than any team in their division. DAL has an O, but their D looks to be nearly pathetic, WAS has a new staff and players, but I've yet to see enough good signs to place them higher. NYG is just not playing well with a new OC

NE and IND have huge gaps between themselves and the rest of their division and will likely have double digit wins seasons again

KC D appears to have gotten worse during the offseason and SD D is still fairly weak, it's their O which allows them to rank so high. OAK is just a bad team and DEN is on the opposite spectrum (a really good team)

If JAC was bad last year, HOU may sink to a lower level and I don't see TEN ranking much higher.

BAL and PIT are a bit of enigmas to me. BAL new OC, seems to sputter in preseason too much. PIT has a lot of youth mixed in with veterans, maybe ranking them lower would be better.

MIA has a good D, but their O leaves much to be desired. NYJ will have another good D unit, but the O may be as equally bad. BUF may still be a year or two away from competing with NE and the other division favorites/winners.

Thursday, August 14, 2014

Must read articles and a few observations for this 2014 season

2014 article: 30 Yards And A Cloud Of Dust

2014 article: 'The Influencer'

2012 article: 'The New Old School'

2013 article: 'Package Plays and the newest form of option football'

The first 'must read' is an ESPN the Magazine article and the rest are from grantland.com (Chris Brown author).

It's pretty evident (to me) that Chip Kelly will be looked upon as a guru, maybe one day holding the same status of Walsh etc (an innovator extraordinaire). The question is will it happen this year? the next? or the following? Chip will need to win the Super Bowl and then some, but it appears he may have a tough time with his present team. Sure they can outscore the majority of teams, its defensively where issues arise. I wonder what happens when HC Kelly faces a team that has a similiar offense, will they, can they, get the win?

I think that a Kelly Offense doesn't need the great physical specimen of a QB, it needs a smart QB, an accurate QB, able to read defenses quickly and make the right choice in his variety of options to choose from. This is a major departure from the majority of NFL personnel thinking and their 'measureables' as the method of choosing a QB. Even a 'winning' QB should be not given as high a priority as a QB with a high football IQ. That is deciphering coverages and making a smart decision on where to throw the ball (or run with the ball or handoff).

Sadly their is a QB who is buried at this time on a NFL teams depth chart, because his 'measurables' aren't quite up to snuff and he's viewed as having a weak arm. I wonder if HC Kelly would take a chance on DET QB3 Kellen Moore. Yes Moore is a winner (at the college level), but I think he is viewed as a system QB coming from Boise St by the majority of NFL personnel decision makers. It's his third year in the NFL, DET needs to cut him loose if they don't want him as QB2.

CLE OC Kyle Shanahan (xWAS OC) appears to be trying to do some of the college things you see so much of on Saturdays. I just think his implementation leaves much to be desired (as well as his change of pace). HC Kelly seems to be a master at change of pace. I thought that PHI made a mistake in letting go WR DeSean Jackson this offseason, but after reading the above articles, I think Jackson may have free lanced too much and HC Kelly probably thinks he needs a WR who is much more disciplined to have a much more effective O.

One team to really watch this season is MIA with their new OC Lazor (xPHI OC). If QB Tannehill can be successful, we'll see more teams run something similar to Kellys O.

I'll publish more if I find the time...

2014 - Preseason - week 2 - picks

A disastrous week for picks during Hall of Fame and week 1 of preseason, hopefully this week will be better. Preseason games are not for the faint of heart. There is less (accurate) information to follow and the head coach will change his mind on how long to leave his starters in the game are among the many factors for betting on preseason games, but I still pick games. I just don't have high expectations on getting the majority of picks correct. Thus the majority of football fanatics should stay away from betting on preseason, even though the sports books do post ATS and total lines for each game.

This year I have been a bit distracted and I suppose I could have done a lot better for week 1 games, but I tried a different approach in picking games and it obviously didn't work. I'll go back to assessing each teams motivation and making picks as I see fit.

08/14 8:00 PM
401 JAC 42½ *under*
402 CHI -3½ *

JAC D much improved last wk vs TB O
JAC QB Henne 1st half QB Bortle 2nd half
JAC QB Henne stinking it up
CHI O starters 'on fire' last week vs PHI D
CHI O passes to TE and deep to WRs
CHI ST issues
CHI 2nd string OL depth issues

I'm very unsure in this game. I prefer the total. JAC D appears to be much improved, but it's their O that's a real question, with their starters expected to play a half, I don't expect more than a FG or two to be generated by their first team O. The 2nd half for JAC should feature rookie QB Bortles, I would play him into Q4 and maybe let QB Stanzi get a drive or two. I'd expect anywhere from a TD or two at the most from JAC 2nd stringers and the rest of their depth players. Thus perhaps JAC will reach 20 pts, but I think it's likely it will be less. CHI scored a lot in week 1, thus the 'high' total of 42.5 and this could be true this week as well, but it's likely CHI QB Cutler will only play a quarter as he and the rest of the first string O doesn't appear to need the reps. I'll guess CHI will play QB Clausen from Q2-Q3 and maybe let QB Palmer play Q4. At this point I don't expect to see QB Fales as I would want to clearly see if Palmer or Clausen should be QB2 (I'm thinking Clausen at this point). I would expect the loser to be cut very soon to allow for QB Fales to gain more experience. Since both D's did fairly well last week (and yes I thought CHI D did fairly well vs PHI O), I don't expect a high scoring game, but the sports books have a high total for a preseason game. CHI just has a better rotation of QBs, it's their length of playing time which is the unknown factor. JAC doesn't appear to have the 'horses' on O, thus I'm thinking a fairly close low scoring game.

08/15 7:30 PM
403 PHI 46½ **
404 NE -2 **OVER**

PHI @NE for joint practices (2nd yr in a row)
rainy wet windy practices
*NE 2nd wk of joint practices*
NE will they be interested this week?
NE not set at SS
road team 4-0 SU in series
PHI WR Maclin OUT?
NE QB2 Mallett limited reps, Garoppolo more?

08/15 8:00 PM
405 TEN 43 over
406 NO -3 ****

TEN starting and back up C OUT??
NO QB#2 Griffin/McCown 'battle' last wk @STL
NO QB Brees 'OUT'

08/15 10:00 PM
407 DET 40 ***
408 OAK -3 ***UNDER***

DET sluggish?
OAK O pathetic last week @MIN
OAK almost goose egg'd
OAK @Oxnard for joint practice w/DAL
brawling 8/11

08/15 10:00 PM
409 SD 38½ *
410 SEA -6½ *UNDER

SD O starters 'on fire' vs DAL D
SD OL still has issues

08/16 4:00 PM
411 GB 41 *
412 STL -2½ *over

GB QB2 battle Flynn vs Tolzien
STL QB Bradford starts (DNP PSG1 vs NO)
**STL QB Hill 2TDs PSG1 on 7 attempts**

08/16 7:00 PM
413 NYG 41 *under
414 IND -2 *

NYG 1's to play longer 5+drives (Q1-Q2)
NYG QBs Manning Painter Nassib
IND QBs Luck Hasselbeck Harnish
IND OL injuries, C Holmes OUT
IND QB Luck Q1 2 series, if he does well again
IND CB Davis and S Landry starts

08/16 7:00 PM
415 BAL -1 over
416 DAL 41½ *

BAL satisfied w/joint practice vs SF
BAL starters to play Q1 (maybe more)
BAL QB Taylor to play Q2-Q4(partial?)
DAL D 'hideous' @SD, 'the show must go on'
OAK @Oxnard for joint practice w/DAL
brawling 8/11

08/16 7:00 PM
417 NYJ 41½ ***
418 CIN -3 UNDER

NYJ starters 2-3? series
NYJ DT Richardson 'we owe them one'
for LY 49-9 butt kicking
CIN QB2 Campbell OUT, QB Wilson p/u 8/10
CIN QBs Dalton, Scott, Wilson (QB2n3 1yr exp)

08/16 7:30 PM
419 BUF 40 UNDER
420 PIT -2½ *

BUF QB Manuel 0 TDs in preseason vs NYG, @CAR
BUF @PIT for joint practice 8/12-13
PIT "Separation Saturday"
PIT D dominating joint practice day 1

08/16 7:30 PM
421 MIA 37 under
422 TB -2½ *

MIA QB Quinn (8/10 p/u) QB#2 'battle' w/Moore
MIA QB2 Moore sore shoulder
MIA QB3 Quinn
MIA QB4 Lobato not NFL caliber
MIA OL2 can't run ball
MIA LBs can't cover RB in flat
MIA ST solid
TB OL 'shambles' @JAC

08/16 8:00 PM
423 ATL 40 *UNDER?
424 HOU -3 *

ATL @HOU for joint practice 8/13-14
ATL D still in a rut
ATL TC injuriesX6
ATL HC Smith wants RZ improvements
HOU HC O'Brien "we're terrible" last week @ARI
HOU WR Johnson hamstring OUT?
HOU D does well joint practice, O????

08/16 8:30 PM
425 ARI 38 under
426 MIN -3 *

MIN QB1 can move the ball, other QBs ??? last wk vs OAK

08/17 4:00 PM
427 DEN 40 under
428 SF -3½ *

DEN 2nd game vs NFC W D
SF satisfied w/joint practice @BAL

08/17 8:00 PM
429 KC 39 ***UNDER***
430 CAR -3½ *

KC QB Smith 1st half
KC WR Bowe sucks
KC D ahead of O, except at DB, very very suspect
CAR O QB Newton, RB Stewart and Williams to start
CAR D tough vs run
CAR miff'd no respect from nat'l media
'mostly likely to fall this year'

08/18 8:00 PM
431 CLE 41 *over
432 WAS -2 *

CLE QB Hoyer and Manziel equal 1st team reps
CLE QB Grossman to play? (8/10 p/u)
CLE WRs depth too many dropsies
CLE starters for 1st half

Sunday, August 10, 2014

2014 - Preseason HoF week 1 - results

Watched part of SF @BAL game, BAL O really seems interested in winning

Watched part of HOU @ARI game, HOU O just looks inept (bottom 5?), but their D is just the opposite, looks like a top 5 D.

I was unable to watch TB @JAC, but from all the media reports, this game must have been very disappointing for TB fans, coaches as TB OL should now be called the matador OL for their 'O' le' style of swinging gates w/guard blocking nearly no one. At this time they rate below HOU OL.

Results for ATS are putrid and somewhat better for totals. A hindsight observation is the home teams went 14-2 SU and 11-3-2 ATS (W-L-P).  Totals 8-6-2 (O-U-P)
I did notice from last season (2013) that for week 1 home teams won only 5 games SU (DET repeated). Interestingly enough if picked the winner SU you also were perfect ATS last season as well.
Repeat SU winners from last season (2013) week 1 - DET, BAL, WAS, DEN, ARI, NO, NYG, BUF
Repeat ATS winners from last season (2013) week 1 - CLE, BAL, WAS, DEN, ARI, NO, NYG, BUF
Repeat SU losers from last season (2013) week 1 - TB, STL, SF, PHI, GB, DAL, PIT, IND
Repeat ATS losers from last season (2013) week 1 - TB, STL, SF, PHI, GB, DAL, PIT
notable: IND had a 'push' ATS this season

Games where I posted a "L-L" (ATS-Total)

Games where I posted a "L-P" or "P-L" (ATS-Total)

2014 - Preseason - Hall of Fame and Week 1 - results

Friday, August 01, 2014

2014 - Preseason - HoF - week 1 - picks

08/03 8:00 PM
241 NYG 33½ UNDER
242 BUF -2½ *

Looks like a work in progress mode for NYG O with new OC McAdoo. BUF is in yr 2 of HC Marrone and staff. Thus they get the nod. The QB rotation is unknown at this time, but if I had to hazard a guess, NYG backup QBs will play more minutes as they are 3 deep (Manning Painter Nassib) vs BUF QBs (Manuel, Lewis, Tuel and Dixon). If I were NYG OC McAdoo I would keep Manning in for more than a series, but since HC Coughlin is in charge I doubt this will occur. I expect blitzing from BUF D and thus the edge is with BUF.
more to follow as I have time...

The following is a bit rough as I have some thoughts but have wobble/waffled back and forth on picks

08/07 7:00 PM
251 IND 35½ *
252 NYJ -3 UNDER?

QB2's for both team veterans (Vick, Hasselbeck)
IND OL (rookie/2yr x3 GCG) to play longer than other starters (a half?)
IND D concentrating on stopping run?
IND lacks depth at majority of positions
NYJ expect 2 series w/QB Smith, may 6 series w/Vick ?17pts?
NYJ D outstanding run D, O who's WR #2???
-- NYJ 2ndary weak, not even average --
NYJ needs to win w/D & ST, conservative ball control O

08/07 7:30 PM
253 NE 37 *?*
254 WAS -1½ *under?

held joint practices 8/4-6
WAS new HC and staff except for DC
WAS should have more incentive
WAS WR Garcon, S Clark and Thomas OUT, WR Jackson ???
WAS starters 8-10 snaps a series or two
WAS HC Gruden simple expectations
NE on another level

08/07 7:30 PM
255 SF 35 ***
256 BAL PK **OVER?

SF QBs all veterans (3+yrs)
BAL QB3 rookie
**BAL QB2 Taylor to play at least 2Q, doing really well TC**
BAL CB3&4 not up to snuff
BAL new OC
BAL 2ndary issues
will hold 4 joint practices 8/8-11 (after game)
SF QB kaepernick a series or two at most
SF D deep at DL/LB
SF competition higher this yr

08/07 8:00 PM
257 CIN 35 ***
258 KC -2 *under?

CIN new OC
CIN QB4 rookie inj'd not expected to play
CIN treating game as evaluation for players, more situations eval
CIN QBs Dalton Campbell Scott McCarron
CIN QB Dalton a series or 2, 
CIN LT Whitworth RT Smith TE Gresham OUT
KC QB4 rookie
KC DBs numerous inj's ?OVER?
KC HC Reid - QB's to play a Q each
Smith, Daniels, Bray, Murray
KC OC Pederson play calling simple, let players play fast/execute
**KC DB Sean Smith and Steve Gregory (vets) playing on 2nd team**
KC inj's WRs DBs, more run game?

08/07 9:00 PM
259 SEA 37 ***
260 DEN -1½ under

DEN QBs after Manning "very green"
SEA QBs Jackson, Daniel(experienced) Pryor (getting lots of reps)
SEA D deep
SEA OL just got deeper w/xHOU RT Winston and LG Smith

08/07 10:00 PM
261 DAL 36½ *
262 SD -2½ over

if SD QB3 plays, advantage DAL
**SD 9 straight days of pads**
SD new OC Reich
DAL D 15 players inj'd 90-4=86/2=43-15=28
DAL OL improved, DL going downhill?
DAL QB Weeden to play Q1-2 (Romo out)

08/08 7:00 PM
263 MIA 36½ *under
264 ATL -2½ *

after starters, MIA QBs a little more experienced than ATL QBs
MIA new OC Lazor, major changes for QBs
MIA dozen players inj'd
ATL a more physical team this year along OL n DL
ATL OL did not do well vs TEN DL 1on1 drills
ATL DL/DT definite upgrade from LY, but still not good enough
ATL no game plan for PSG1 vs MIA
ATL thin @safety, no depth, injuries
ATL has no real depth along OL

08/08 7:30 PM
265 BUF 37 over
266 CAR -1 *

CAR new WRs, slightly older QBs

08/08 7:30 PM
267 TB -1 *
268 JAC 35½ under

TB limited game plan
JAC QB2 Bortle extended reps?

08/08 8:00 PM
269 NO 37½ *under
270 STL -3 *

NO lots of inj's
NO approaching as eval game
nearly identical experience for QBs
STL new DC Gregg Williams
STL QB Bradford. LT Long, C Wells OUT

08/08 8:00 PM
271 PHI 38½ **
272 CHI -2 under

PHI QBs Sanchez,Barkley,Kinne 'just looks stronger'
CHI QBs Clausen,Palmer,Fales

08/08 8:00 PM
273 OAK 37 over?
274 MIN -2½ ***

OAK QB2 Carr extended reps?
MIN new HC, OC, DC - extended look at QB Bridgewater?
MIN simple game plan, wants players to play fast

08/09 7:30 PM
275 CLE 37½ over?
276 DET -2½ ***

CLE QB2 Manziel extended reps?
DET QB2 and QB3 vets

08/09 7:30 PM
277 PIT 36 *
278 NYG -3 *under

unsure about taking NYG, perhaps PIT is better?

08/09 8:00 PM
279 GB 37 *
280 TEN -1 *OVER

GB QB2/3s veterans - TC practicing very well
GB OL 'best yet' per HC McCarthy
TEN new HC OC **DC Ray Horton 3-4 (xARI DC)**
TEN fairly young team nearly half less than 2yrs
TEN OL well built
TEN #2 in AFC South?
TEN QBs Locker, Whitehurst, Mettenberger

08/09 8:30 PM
281 HOU 37 ***UNDER***
282 ARI -2½ ***********

HOU new HC OC DC, TC is the most intense in a long time
HOU C-QB exchange issues
ARI is deep with players

Thursday, July 31, 2014

ever get that feeling? like a premonition?

I followed a RSS link to the Denver Post on the Bronco's new CB, veteran Talib and the article is nice, but the picture speaks volumes...

see: Aqib Talib gives Denver Broncos defense a new identity

I know, I know you've seen lot's of football players in the rain, so what makes this picture speak volumes to me? Talib played with NE last year and decided to move on. I'm just speculating, but if he really thought NE had a chance at winning the Super Bowl wouldn't he have stayed in NE? The goal is to win the Super Bowl and most players don't get many chances if any to get to the Super Bowl and Talib is thinking not to just get there, but to win it all. That's what would make any football players career.

The $$ is nice for Talib with his new contract, but to win the SuperBowl will entice the best veteran players to the best teams and DEN is definitely in the upper echelon.

Just remember the priority of players for salaries, QB LT DE CB and DEN has all the boxes checked off (a star at every position that plays really well). I also think with DEN near misses the past two season, a loss to Super Bowl champion Seattle last year and the prior years playoff loss to eventual champion Baltimore, really has the team hungry and on edge.

I still think DEN will need to run the ball a bit more and play 'keep away' from other teams this season. I also thought this last season as well, but this season I don't think I'll have many questions for DEN D. The only thing that could hold DEN back is injuries, but every season this occurs and as a GM it's really up to Elway and company to provide HC Fox and his staff the players.

DEN had made the mistake of holding too long onto Champ Bailey, but I think they made up for it by sticking to their budget plans and let go Rogers-Cromartie. This could be Denvers year as their competition in the AFC consists of NE, BAL/PIT, IND and perhaps SD and/or KC. From the NFC - SEA, SF GB PHI and/or WAS as well as NO and CAR are all contenders.

I know some will be surprised by my picking WAS as well as CAR, CAR did beat NO last year for their division, but CAR has a several questions at WR. I'm just guessing with WAS with a new regime and new HC Jay Gruden, but a lot of the pieces are to be in place. I do think teams like TB and MIN will improve, just not enough to be a SB contender. I think CHI will have issues with D and ST. DET though talented will be more 'muted' with new HC Caldwell, hopefully this will lead to less penalites. ATL and ARI are both dark horse candidates but have issues on D or on O that need to be fixed.
For DEN within their own division will be fairly tough with KC (really need to get better WRs) and SD (new OC and can their D hold up?). OAK may surprise for a while and win games they shouldn't, but I think they'll fall back to their penalty prone self.

DEN? Destiny? who knows? it's still preseason....

Monday, April 07, 2014

Head Coach retention rates - by Football Perspective

Head Coach Retention Rates

The above url (link) is one of those articles that you wonder why no one has done it before and though it may not be a hot bed of a topic for discussion, it does merit discussion.

Though the rate seems to be about the same as in years past whether going with a 5yr or 3yr retention rate. Where everyone's focus is a winning correlation with head coach and staff retention. Those teams which have less turnover at their coaching positions seems to have a better winning percentage.

Now the article doesn't go that deeply into the general perception of winning = head coaches retention, just if they are still with the same team, so it would be nice to see this topic with a more in depth view.

Friday, April 04, 2014

and the stripes are changing...

Instead of posting more pre-draft speculation, here's a link for new referees this upcoming season by the folks at footballzebras.com

Speculation whirls around new referee hires

This could be an interesting angle to follow. I'd guess perhaps less penalties (speedy games) or perhaps more penalties (slower games) as far actual game length. Of course if they happen to be assigned to young teams, you would expect more penalties vs a much more veteran team. It would take at least a month or two to see if there is a trend of any type to follow for the new hires.

Tuesday, February 11, 2014

just a thought on futures aka total wins

I read this article Pythagenpat Records in 2013 and it occurred to me that perhaps the sportsbooks are using something similiar when they post their season total over/under wins for each team prior to the regular season.

I wish I had the time to check prior years as well as verify/disqualify some of my other thoughts as well.

Namely those teams that over or under achieve each season since the realignment to 32 teams and their W/L record the following season.

It's also interesting in the article that Brady, Manning and now Luck have all done better than predicted by the mathematical model, but their is no mention of Rodgers, Brees. It would be nice to see what the model predicted by team w/a QB notation (though I do realize that for some teams, their should be a QB/QB/QB notation, due to injuries, HC decision etc)

Sunday, February 02, 2014

2013 - week 21 - Super Bowl XLVIII (48) - results

WOW a blow out for SEA 43-8, just a dominating performance, by the end of Q1 it was clear SEA D was in control and DEN O was mistake prone, who'd have thought the younger team had the poise and clearly won the majority of their battles. SEA D ended up w/2 ints and 3 forced fumbles, they will be remembered for a spectacular performance, jut like Bruno Mars and the half time show.

SEA D caused DEN O to end their first four drives on a safety, punt (3-and-out), interception and interception returned for a TD. SEA led 8-0 at the end of Q1, 22-0 at the end of Q2 and 36-8 at the end of Q3.

SEA D and ST put the exclamation points on the game w/a Q2 intrTD and Q3 krTD. When DEN did not go for it on 4th down in Q3 the game was conceded IMO. I had projected a 10 possession game for each team, thus in Q3 DEN down 0-29 and they didn't go for it on 4th, the question became would DEN be goose egged by SEA D. DEN did score once at the end of Q3, but SEA was clearly in control, even letting RB Turbin play the entire Q4. SEA secondary depth came thru when CB Sherman injured his ankle. I was a bit surprised to see SEA LB Wright play and play very well. SEA WR Harvin also turned in a stellar performance coming off an injury.

So I ended up goose egged for SB, 0-fer, sigh....
Playoffs overall record ATS 6-4-1 totals 7-4

One other comment I was correct in that DEN D could control SEA run O, but SEA O won on 3rd down, SEA QB Wilson played very smart, even though he wasn't as accurate as he could be and they were bogged down in the red zone twice early in the game, he kept the chains moving and they finished off drives with scores. SEA finished their first half drives w/FG, FG, TD and end of half possession. SEA O first punt occurred in Q3 and they just ran out the clock in Q4 giving up the ball on downs twice. SEA O also scored 2 TD's off of DEN TO's the same as their D.

My guess is Manning will be known as a choker in the big one.

Sunday, January 26, 2014

2013 - teams built to win - results

Reviewing an earlier post on teams built to win for the 2013 season I wanted to review results of the 7 teams that were viewed as teams built to win and their results for the 2013 season.

Notable teams that have 8 or more players with $6+ mil contracts:

DAL  - another disappointing underachieving season with an 8-8 record. Until management comes around to a major change, they appear to be heading toward futility.

PHI   - won their division with a 10-6 record, loss in the wild card round, 1st week of the playoffs at home to NO. Still they will be viewed as being on the plus side of the ledger for the 2013 season.

CHI  - another disappointing underachieving season with an 8-8 record. Some will view this as a good start, but does anyone remember they fired Lovie Smith for a 10-6 record? To me, this team, this staff, is still searching for itself, are they an offensive team? a defensive team? and they also declined with their ST play as well. We'll wait for the draft to form a stronger opinion, but as of right now. They are still chasing GB and DET may have already eclipsed them with their firing of HC Schwartz and hiring of HC Caldwell. MIN will definitely be much better on D with their new hire of HC Zimmer.

ATL  - a highly underachieving season with a 4-12 record. Is ATL personnel decision on the decline? They did bring in Scott Piolo this off season who worked with their current GM. ATL letting go Abraham (who thrived at ARI) and Grimes (who solidified MIA secondary) were the two key cuts from their team last year which will be be viewed as highly questionable. Think of it as the remaining cast of personnel not being up to snuff without these two and you really wonder about player evaluation by staff. Who's responsible and who's making recommendations? They don't seem to have the requisite insight into players and playing at the NFL level of competition. 

TB  - their disappointing season with a 4-12 record resulted in the firing of HC Schiano, with reports this off season coming from players of tuning out their HC during the season (though this could be surmised from media reports during the season). Their new hire of HC Lovie Smith points towards an uptick for this team at least defensively in the near future. Their offense will need to be seen to be believed in, so we'll reserve judgement for later on.

SEA  - a 13-3 record, two playoff wins and seeking their third win in SB 48 this team is on the rise. Their's even talk of a dynasty, but media speculation may have jumped the gun. They first need to win a Super Bowl first, then win another Super Bowl in two of the next 3 years, before 'dynasty' talk will be relevant.

SF  - a 12-4 record, two playoff wins and a disappointing 4th quarter performance (3 turn overs - fumble, two interceptions) in the NFC Conference Championships at their division rivals (SEA) home stadium. Seems 'finishing' consistently well is their only problem, which points to their QB Kaepernick. SF window may have closed, they'll likely be in the playoffs again, but Super Bowl talk should wait until their offense can gain more consistency from the QB position. The injuries to Iupati and Bowman may hamper SF this upcoming 2014 season. Maybe SF HC Harbaugh gave up on QB Alex Smith too soon, we'll see if KC does well next year as they also suffered from injuries in their playoff game.

So overall, only 3 teams reached the playoffs, PHI, SEA, SF and the rest (DAL, CHI, ATL, TB) are still saddled with high 'debt' and nothing to show for it. I guess we'll see more purging of players from the 'disappointed' teams, but will it change anything? Constructing a teams seems to be more art than science or the main ingredients for team success are unknown and the owner needs to find another recipe since the current one isn't working and not likely to succeed.

Their is hope with TB, CHI still has a year or two to get better. ATL is on the down slope and DAL is just lost in their own self glorification, that they can't see their own selves and their bumps and warts to make the right decision.

You don't need all those high salaries to win, most notably NE a very young team and IND this year stuck out as having great support staffs that coached like no one else. So those teams with a lot of high salary players may be 'built to win', but not all can win and thus we'll always note the disappointing teams and their underachievements. If it works, the teams will try to keep the players and coaching staff together, if it doesn't I expect a purge of players and staff.