Friday, January 30, 2009

Super Bowl XLIII - picks

02/01 6:20 PM
101 PIT -7 OVER
102 ARI 46½ *****
SUPER BOWL XLIII [NBC] @Raymond James Stadium - Tampa, FL

I'm going w/Pittsburgh West, that's right ARIZONA, getting pts appears to be the thing to do and over the total really goes along w/what ARI & PIT are doing as far as totals..

I'd try to offer more convincing thoughts, but it just seems to be what should happen, w/ARI in the underdog role and playing it to the hilt...

NFL 08 - Conference Championships - results

ATS 0-2 side 0-1 total 0-1 PHI @ARI (DO)
ATS 0-2 side 0-1 total 0-1 BAL @PIT (FO)

for the week:
ATS 0-4 side 0-2 total 0-2

for the playoffs:
ATS 8-12 side 4-6 total 4-6

green picks: 0-fer

what a shamble... I'm 0-fer guess it was bound to happen, when I can't watch football on weekend due to work requirements, this follows my previous pattern of when I miss the weekend games and I'll miss on my picks the following week. Watching highlights and NFL network shorten games still isn't good enough to get a sense of how the game went and if DC/OC/HC or referees make calls or don't make calls that affect the game. But yeah I stunk it up !!!!

notes: PHI had a better average gain per play, but ARI has a better average gain per pass play.Both playoff winners got the TO's and PIT turned their TO's into 10 pts. ARI took a missed FG and struck for a TD w/good field position.

Tuesday, January 13, 2009

NFL 08 - conference championships - picks

01/18 3:00 PM
313 PHI -3.5 *****
314 ARI 47½ UNDER

I have a hard time reading ARI O & D or maybe I just don't believe what I'm seeing...PHI D is on par w/PIT D, but not quite BAL D
PHI O except for a blip @WAS has been playing exceptional, scoring at a clip of 38-67%
ARI O except for blips @NE, & vs MIN, has also been playing exceptional, scoring at a clip of 31-67%. The difference is PHI D has allowed scoring at no greater than 25%, while ARI has allowed 15% this last game which is really good, but this season each time their D has allowed <20%
scoring, the following game is between 33-45% so this doesn't bode well for ARI D
I expect PHI D to play very well again, keep PHI in the game and their O to solve the riddle sometime in the late 2nd Q or mid 3rd Q. Everything rides on ARI QB Warner if he plays well,
they stay close (and the over) if not, then we could see a blow out....

01/18 6:30 PM
315 BAL 33½ *****
316 PIT -6 UNDER

This should be a close game so taking the pts will win ATS.
I watched MLB Ray Lewis talk about the injustice of a called TD while @home vs PIT, when the receiver had feet in the TD zone, but the ball had not crossed the plane. BAL will be playing not to let the ref's decide the game and should be ferocious on D and O.
PIT D scoring efficiency is not quite as good as BAL D in the past 7 weeks.
PIT O scoring efficiency has been much better than BAL O, but PIT this year, has not been able to keep up these scoring outbursts and so I suspect that w/BAL conservative O that this game will be an UNDER game and pts will be at a premium.

Sunday, January 11, 2009

NFL 08 - division - results

ATS 2-0 side 1-0 total 1-0
ATS 0-2 side 0-1 total 0-1 ARI @CAR (DU)
ATS 2-0 side 1-0 total 1-0
ATS 0-2 side 0-1 total 0-1 SD @PIT (FO)

for the week:
ATS 4-4 side 2-2 total 2-2

for the playoffs:
ATS 8-8 side 4-4 total 4-4

green picks: 2-2

ARI fooled me again, their D is playing very well and w/this upcoming home game, well.... I'm still pickin against them...

PHI @NYG, PHI converted on 3rd downs, NYG couldn't, but avg yards per pass play was 5.4 (for PHI) and NYG was 5.8, this does not bode well for PHI @ARI

also PIT avg yards per pass play was 6.3 and SD was 7.1 again not a good sign for PIT @home next week, no TO's for PIT which is good football

Friday, January 09, 2009

NFL 08 - division playoffs - picks

01/10 4:30 PM
301 BAL 35 ******
302 TEN -3 UNDER
TEN-DT-Haynesworth-Probable, DE-Vanden Bosch-Probable, C-Mawae-OUT

w/Mawae out we'll see an OL shuffle, ....advantage BAL

01/10 8:15 PM
303 ARI 48 over
304 CAR -10 ******

I know 10 is a big number to cover, but I expect that CAR will be rested and motivated, ARI has yet to win on the road on east coast. ARI QB Warner will throw int's which will lead to TD's (yeah I'm counting on at least 2). I'm so certain w/over game could be a fav/under game due to ARI high from 1st playoff win in years... (emo high)

01/11 1:00 PM
305 PHI 40 **
306 NYG -4.5 under
NYG D has sustain inj's throughout yr and aren't the same as last yr, PHI QB will have time to throw, normally I pick the road team and the over, but PHI D is playing well and if NYG continues on run O strategy I expect the time to fly by....

01/11 4:45 PM
307 SD 38 *
308 PIT -6.5 UNDER
SD-K-Kaeding-Probable (Groin Pull), RB-Tomlinson-Downgraded to Doubtful, WR-Jackson-Questionable (arrested for suspicion of DUI)
PIT OL and running game appear to be motivated, they may just cover the spread


Wednesday, January 07, 2009

NFL 08 - wildcard weekend - results

ATS 0-2 side 0-1 total 0-1 ATL @ARI (DO)
ATS 1-1 side 0-1 total 1-0
ATS 1-1 side 1-0 total 0-1
ATS 2-0 side 1-0 total 1-0

for the week:
ATS 4-4 side 2-2 total 2-2

green picks: 0-1

ARI D played the run very well. ATL D couldn't get to ARI QB, ARI Coach Whisenhunt seems to have the answers for ATL OC Mularkey (note: they were both w/PIT earlier this decade)

SD ST played exceptional. SD D played the worst of all the weekend winners. SD O average gain per play as well as per pass was worst then IND O. Big indicator that their next game will be a LOSS.
IND for whatever reason doesn't get wins vs IND (just 1 in ? yrs)

BAL D played very very well 14pts from 5 TO's
MIA O couldn't sustain drives (2-10 on 3rd downs)
BAL O run game is their key

PHI O & D are playing very well and have the best chance of getting the road win, though D does allow the big play every now and then and their O could use more rushing yardage and yards gained per attempt ( weakest of remaining wildcard teams). PHI O average gain per play was 5.8 and average gain per pass play was 7.6 (second to ARI 6.0/8.5)

Friday, January 02, 2009

NFL 08 - wildcard weekend - picks

01/03 4:30 PM
101 ATL -2 *****
102 ARI 51 under

ATL on the road>
totals 33,33,51,41,24,38,54,41
scored 9,9,27,14,24,22,25,24
allowed 24,24,24,27,0,16,29,17

ATL on the road ATS 3-2 since bye wk, losses to PHI & NO
NOTE: ATL wins after ATS lost, last wk ATS loss, this week ???
ARI @home ATS 2-3 since bye wk, wins vs STL & SEA

ARI @home>
totals 41,58,54,53,66,44,49,55
scored 31,41,30,29,29,34,14,34
allowed 10,17,24,24,37,10,35,21

ATL seems to be on an offensive TO streak 1,3,1,3,0,3, ?
ATL D # of tackles for loss 5,5,1,6,8,8
ATL has lost only 2 games SU of last 7 games

ARI# of Offensive TO's last 7 games> 3,2,4,1,2,2,2
ARI has won only 2 games SU of last 6 games

ATL D is the key, if they dominate they'll win easily, if not the game will be high scoring and close

01/03 8:00 PM
103 IND -1 *****
104 SD 51 UNDER
SD-RB-Tomlinson-Probable, TE-Gates-Probable

rematch of 11/23 game
IND on the road>
totals 33,58,48,52,44,43,16,55
notice OVER games were division games
vs interconference teams totals of 34,33,44,43,16,38
IND on 9 game winning streak since loss to TEN

SD @home since bye wk very iffy
1pt wins vs KC twice, 27 & 31 pt wins vs OAK & DEN, 3 & 6 pt loss @home vs IND & ATL
won @ TB by 17 (wk16), trailed into Q4 20-24

IND Manning & Co are so good in the playoffs, that I don't see how SD D will keep up and IND D is underrated and will get TO's

01/04 1:00 PM
105 BAL -3.5 ****
106 MIA 37½ OVER

rematch of 10/19 game
BAL on the road>
totals 43,34,40,64,54,40,37,57
lost to PIT by 3, IND by 28, NYG by 20

BAL appears to be in a groove for last 11 weeks w/only losses to PIT by 4 & NYG by 20,
winning by double digits except @DAL by 9

BAL 10-3-1 ATS last 14 wks (12-3-1 ATS/season)
MIA 'dog is 13-1 ATS last 14 wks (13-3 season)
MIA road team is 11-3 ATS last 14 wks (12-4 season)
MIA plays close games except w/NE (win @NE 25 wk3/loss @MIA 20 wk12)
loss to @ARI 21 (wk2) loss vs BAL 14 (wk7) win at BUF 13 (wk14)

Probably best game of the weekend, will MIA have answer for BAL unbalanced OL plays?

01/04 4:30 PM
107 PHI -3 *
108 MIN 41½ UNDER

PHI on the road>
totals 78,44,66,33,26,43,34,13
scored 37,20,40,26,13,7,20,3
allowed 41,24,26,7,13,36,14,10

PHI home team ATS 6-1 last 7
PHI last 6 games double digit winning margin (+20) except vs division opponents

MIN @home>
totals 33,30,22,49,55,48,41,39
scored 15,20,12,28,34,17,20
allowed 18,10,10,21,27,14,24,19

MIN since bye, except for game vs CHI, winning margin is single digits, 7,1,20,7,1,?

PHI should win as long as D doesn't give up big yardage plays.