Monday, February 08, 2010

SB XLIV results

my analysis was just a bit off as the dog/under combo won, not what I expected. Sadly I couldn't watch the game (heard a bit on radio on drive home and at work, but streaming kept freezing, ugh), but from reading press on websites and reviewing game stats, I'd guess NO play calling, both on O & D were the difference as stats were better for IND except in TO's and D where NO had the edge and scored points off TO's as well as the onside kick which led to a TD (and missed FG also led to TD).

I really expected an over game, but DE Freeney played (unexpected) and I expected CB Powers to be picked on by QB Brees (did this happen? enough times?). I'm just guessing, but IND played too conservatively, too predictable. NO took advantage of the lack of something new by IND O to D up against w/basics and held their cards (blitz) until the end. IND D played as well as expected I'd fault their O, but that's just from stats.

maybe later I'll watch a re-run some day as this appears to be a "classic"

Wednesday, February 03, 2010


numbers have gone up a bit...

02/07 6:25 PM
101 New Orleans 56½
102 Indianapolis -5.5
IND-DE-Freeney-Questionable (torn ligament in ankle)

so what am I think'g????

it'll either be a FU (fav/under) or a DO (dog/over) that will win $$
w/FO (fav/over) next and DU (dog/under) as most likely not happening though mathematically there's a 25% chance that it can occur.

This year:
I noticed that after "bye" weeks NO scores are in the 40's - 20's range, so OVER and the DOG in this case.

With IND after "bye" weeks they tend to do the FU angle

so slant your prop bets this way as well, taking one of the two angles or both if you must hedge.

The Hilton has over 300 prop bets and they even have those that you can parlay, though they are limited and the majority are just single prop bets.

I'm leaning more toward the over because of DE Freeney inj, this should give NO line some breathing room w/double teaming of Mathis and IND will be forced to blitz w/LB's & safeties. IF QB Brees gets the time and the completions we'll definitely see an OVER game and if such is the case, the dog is the better bet.

The other side of the coin is ... what if NO has a repeat of their O performance in the championship game where TO's really helped their cause and their D comes up w/fewer TO's? Then you're really looking at IND as a fav/under combo to win the $$.
IND front 7 is not as good as MIN D, but IND secondary is at least on par if not better and I believe they are quicker, w/red zone D playing extremely well after "bye" weeks.

So where do I stand? I can't pick, because I was unable to watch Championship games due to work requirements and again I'll miss SB due to the same reasons.... sigh.
It really does help to watch and form your own opinions on how each team is faring,
the numbers suggest IND will win and cover and only NO D will be able to change the outcome. Sharper is the key, if he can get TO's from Manning & Co, they'll get the over and win the $$, if not, it's IND's to lose