Tuesday, January 22, 2008

SBXLII thoughts

The number has moved from a high of NE -15 to NE -12, a substantial move (total from 55 to 54). I say if you like NE wait another week 'til maybe Wednesday to place your bets, from Thursday on the line may go back up as more NE begin to roll in on the fav, but up until Wednesday the line may continue to go down.

NE O should have a good game plan to counter NYG G front four, coverage schemes and blitzing, but expecting NYG O to counter NE D will be more interesting only if NYG O can actually move the ball consistently. I don't expect to NYG O to have an effective O, NE should be geared to stop run first, pass second, especially by NYG O formation. NE will most likely dare NYG QB Manning to complete deep passes (20+ yds).

NYG D will continue to contain NE 3 - 4 WR sets w/blitzes as seen in previous games, I just expect NE to pick up the blitzes much better and win by double digits

Sunday, January 20, 2008

SB XLII props

w/o even seeing propositions available for the SB,
I 'd place $ on the over for "the number of penalties" that NYG will commit.

Since NYG will most likely not play man-to-man D coverage a whole lot, NE QB Brady will have a high 3rd down completion ratio. (better than 54%).

NYG QB Manning should be about 40% on 3rd down.

Total sacks by both teams should be around 2 or 3.

If NYG gets behind in the scoring, they will have to abandon the running game and thus play into NE's covering the spread.

I suspect that NE will have more fans @SBXLII and thus have "home field" advantage.

Super Bowl XLII picks

2/3 3:20pm
101 NYG 54 over
102 NE -14 **

NYG ATS 7-1, O/U 3-5, D/F 6-2 last 8 games
NE ATS 1-7, O/U 3-5, D/F 7-1 last 8 games

By the numbers, NYG should win ATS and it'll be an Under game.

But I believe something else will happen w/2 weeks to prep for SB XLII.
NYG should be able to score another 20-21 pts, and NE will score in the 38+ pts range.
TV timeouts will contribute to NE efficiency in diagnosing NYG O and D and we could see
an explosion near the end of the 2nd qtr.

NE w/QB Brady having a poor showing will be even prepp'd more than the usual 1 wk prep.
Normally NE given more than 1 week prep time has blown out opponents this year.
Look at the 1st game of the year (@NYJ) and their game after the bye week (@BUF) which they won by 24 & 46 pts respectively. Granted these were division rivals so they were more familiar, but this also could be looked at from the opposite view as they play twice a year and should be very familiar w/each other and thus able to stop each other's offense.

NE will be much more poised for SBXLII as they have had recent trips. I think NYG will make mistakes in the 1st half that NE will capitalize on and either score or prevent a score. NYG will be forced into playing catch up and be "forced" into other mistakes.

But what do I know, I haven't picked the sides really well this playoff season, but totals have been very well.

Championship results

SD U ATS 1-1 side 0-1 total 1-0
NYG O ATS 1-1 side 0-1 total 1-0

this weekend ATS 2-2 side 0-2 total 2-0
overall ATS 13-6-1 side 5-4-1 total 8-2

NE could have covered spread in 4th, but chose not to w/play calling. SD played very well, NE QB Brady had surprisingly an "off" night, which appeared to be due to SD D playing outstanding football for most of the game

you could see in NYG/GB game that there was a good chance of OT (from about 2nd qtr) and even w/o OT the game would have been an Over game.
GB O play calling was suspect, several times they were too predictable, GB had won the ST battle, but later on NYG won the ST game.

Wednesday, January 16, 2008

AFC-NFC Championships picks

1/20 12:00pm
303 SD 46 under
304 NE -14 *

SD super hot 8 game winning ATS streak
SD last 6 totals UOUOUO? FAV 8-1 last 9 games
SD ATS 8-0, O/U 4-4, D/F 1-7 last 8 games
NE ATS 1-6, O/U 3-4, D/F 6-1 last 7 games

1/20 12:00pm
305 NYG 41 over
306 GB -7 **

NYG ATS 6-1, O/U 2-5, D/F 5-2 last 7 games
GB ATS 7-2, O/U 8-1, D/F 1-8 last 9 games
NYG last 2 games on the road TO ratio positive
GB @home TO ratio positive

Sunday, January 13, 2008

Division playoff results

GB O ATS 2-0 side 1-0 total 1-0
JAC O ATS 2-0 side 1-0 total 1-0
SD O ATS 1-1 side 0-1 total 1-0 (the DO combo won - I was blind? SD so much heart...)
really great performance by SD w/RB LT & QB Rivers goin' out of game due to inj's
NYG U ATS 1-1 side 1-0 total 0-1 (an under game, QB ELI or play calling suspect in 4th qtr??)

this weekend ATS 6-2 side 3-1 total 3-1
overall ATS 11-4-1 side 5-2-1 total 6-2

Again, I'm perfect on Saturday and sucked on Sunday, though ATS I did well or you could look at it as I'm good w/first 2 games and average w/last 2 games

Wednesday, January 09, 2008

Division playoff picks

01/12 4:30 PM
101 SEA 42 over***
102 GB -8 *

SEA on the road spreads 3,5,4,3,3 over/under 3-2
GB 7 game Over streak and 9 game double digit game spread 10+ pts

01/12 8:00 PM
103 JAC 49 **
104 NE -13.5 over**

JAC on 10 game over streak, ATS 7-1-1 last 9
NE ATS 2-6 last 8

01/13 1:00 PM
107 SD 46½ over
108 IND -9 *

SD is hot!! vs spread going 6-0 last 6
fav is hotter vs spread going 7-0 last 7 w/games involving SD
w/SD - rhythm shows fav/under combo
IND ATS 4-2 last 6, either play FO or DU combo

01/13 4:30 PM
109 NYG 47 ***
110 DAL -7.5 over*

NYG is hot vs spread going 4-1 last 5
DAL is not vs spread going 1-4 last 5

Wild card results

SEA O ATS 1-1 side 1-0 total 0-1 (this was an under game until the 4th qtr w/36 pts )
push O ATS 1-0-1 side 0-0-1 total 1-0 (if only JAC learns to close out games...)
NYG U ATS 1-1 side 0-1 total 1-0 (TB and their losing just kept going....hmmm)
SD U ATS 2-0 side 1-0 total 1-0 (another slow start for SD, but TEN suck'd in 2nd half)

overall 5-2-1 side 2-1-1 total 3-1

Wednesday, January 02, 2008

Wild Card picks

01/05 4:30 PM
479 WAS 40 under***
480 SEA -3 * (though WAS is "hot" SEA is @home)

01/05 8:00 PM
481 JAC -2 *** (PIT has too many inj's)
482 PIT 39½ over

01/06 1:00 PM
485 NYG 39½ under (going against NYG due to emo game w/NE previous wk)
486 TB -3 *

01/06 4:30 PM
487 TEN 40 under (The EA Madden curse takes effect, though I still wonder w/SD O @times)
488 SD -9 *