Wednesday, May 31, 2017

2017 - OT shortened to 10 minutes - an angle to bet on? or bet against?

I read this:

and noted the article stated that if this had been implemented last season, then there would be 3 additional games ending up as tied.

I recall ARI HC Arians stating that after their 6-6 OT game w/SEA, their team did not have a normal week for the next game. I believe he stated they only had a walk thru instead of the normal practice.

This opens up a betting opportunity - betting against teams the following week after participating in OT game that went the full length of OT. Even though OT has been shortened from 15 min to 10 min, the way it affects team preparation for the following game appears to be a situation that's hard to ignore.

It is a small sample size to review from last year and their aren't many OT games during the season.
How it affects teams performance in the following game needs to be reviewed in more detail.

2016 season, OT game, following week SU results:
week 1 SD @KC 27-33, week 2 JAC @SD 14-38, KC @HOU 12-19 (W, L) [sd l,w] [kc w,l]
week 3 CLE @MIA 24-30, week 4 CLE @WAS 20-31, MIA @CIN 7-22 (L, L)[cle l,l][mia w,l]
week 6 IND @HOU 23-26, week 7 IND @TEN 34-26, HOU @DEN 9-27 (W, L)[ind l,w][hou w,l]
week 7 SD @ATL 33-30, week 8 SD @DEN 19-27, GB @ATL 32-33 (L, W)[sd w,l][ atl l,w]
week 7 SEA @ARI 6-6, week 8 SEA @NO 20-25, ARI @CAR 20-30 (L, L)[sea t,l][ari t,l]
week 8 WAS @CIN 27-27, week 9 bye, bye
week 8 OAK @TB 30-24, week 9 DEN @OAK 20-30, ATL @TB 43-28 (W, L)[oak w,w][tb l,l]
week 8 PHI @DAL 23-29, week 9 PHI @NYG 23-28, DAL @CLE 35-10 (L, W)[phi l,l][dal w,w]
week 9 DET @MIN 22-16, week 10 bye, MIN @WAS 20-26 (bye, L)[det w,bye][min l,l]
week 12 KC @DEN 30-27, week 13 KC @ATL 29-28, DEN @JAC 20-10 (W, W)[kc w,w][den l,w]
week 14 NYJ @SF 23-17, week 15 MIA @NYJ 34-13, SF @ATL 13-41 (L, L)[nyj w,l][sf l,l]
week 16 MIA @BUF 34-31, week 17 NE @MIA 35-14, BUF @NYJ 10-30 (L, L)[mia w,l][buf l,l]
week 17 CLE @PIT 21-27, week 18 playoffs - CLE out, MIA @PIT 12-30 (DNP, W)[cle l,dnp][pit w,w]

interestingly enough;
prior to week 8 team that loses OT wins following game (except for CLE)
prior to week 8 team that wins OT loses following game

after week 8  team that loses OT loses following game (except den vs atl close game, cle dnp)
after week 8  team that wins OT wins following game (except DET bye, nyj vs div, mia vs div)

so it appears:
prior to mid season, bet against winner of OT the following week
prior to mid season, bet on loser of OT the following week (w/reservation to not bet)

after mid-season, bet against loser of OT (w/reservation to not bet)
after mid-season, bet on winner of OT, the following week (w/a lot of reservation to not bet)