01/01 1:00 PM
301 WAS 46½ UNDER
302 PHI -9 *
WAS loss last week is mystifying to me
01/01 4:15 PM
303 TB 46½ OVER
304 ATL -12 **
Time change to 04:15pm EST
ATL after last weeks embarrassing division loss, has a 'feel better' game
01/01 1:00 PM
305 SF -10.5 *
306 STL 35½ UNDER
SF still gunning for 1st round bye
01/01 1:00 PM
307 CHI -1 ***
308 MIN 41 under
MIN QB? uncertainties
01/01 1:00 PM
309 DET -3.5 **
310 GB 46½ over
GB can't improve playoff position
01/01 8:20 PM
311 DAL 46 *
312 NYG -3 over
Time change to 08:20pm EST
NYG hasn't played up to snuff as home team
01/01 1:00 PM
313 CAR 55 OVER
314 NO -9 *
NO still gunning for 1st round bye
01/01 1:00 PM
315 TEN -3 ***
316 HOU 40½ UNDER
TEN needs win and HOU can't improve playoff position
01/01 4:15 PM
317 BAL -2.5 *
318 CIN 38 UNDER
Time change to 04:15pm EST
BAL O has been sputtering lately, I could pick CIN... & over
01/01 4:15 PM
319 PIT -7 ****
320 CLE 36 UNDER
Time change to 04:15pm EST
CLE is awful on O
01/01 1:00 PM
321 IND 37 *****
322 JAC -4 UNDER
now why is JAC favored?
01/01 1:00 PM
323 NYJ 41 OVER
324 MIA -2 *
NYJ is cooked, MIA still playing like a team w/something to prove
01/01 1:00 PM
325 BUF 51½ **
326 NE -12 UNDER
with NE LT & LG out, hard to take NE
w/news of BUF LT, C & TE out, UNDER total is the wise pick
01/01 4:15 PM
327 SD 49 UNDER
328 OAK -3 *
lots of rumors surrounding SD
01/01 4:15 PM
329 KC 36½ *****
330 DEN -3 UNDER
DEN D on downslope
01/01 4:15 PM
331 SEA 41 ***
332 ARI -3 OVER
Two 7-8 teams gunning for .500 season
Tuesday, December 27, 2011
2011 - Playoff projections - picks
AFC Playoff contenders
NE, BAL/PIT, HOU, DEN/OAK, BAL/PIT, CIN/TEN/NYJ/OAK
AFC Wild card (* likely winner)
CIN*/TEN/NYJ/OAK @HOU
BAL/PIT* @DEN/OAK
can't see the home teams winning
AFC Division projected (* likely winner)
HOU/CIN/TEN/NYJ/OAK @NE*
DEN/OAK/BAL/PIT @BAL*/PIT
and this week the home teams can't lose
AFC Conference projected (* likely winner)
BAL @NE*
and though mid-season I picked BAL to go to SB, I've changed my mind
Flacco is just not good enough on the road & Brady @home will prove to be insurmountable
NFC Playoff contenders
GB, SF, NO, DAL/NYG, DET, ATL
NFC Wild card (* likely winner)
ATL @NO*
DET* @NYG/DAL
DET is probably weakest pick, funny how I pick'd a dome team? notice only NYG is the only non-dome team?
NFC Division projected (* likely winner)
DAL/NYG/DET @GB*
NO*/ATL @SF
NO is hot, GB was hottest
NFC Conference projected (* likely winner)
NO @GB*
re-match of 1st game of season, again going GBs way
I don't think they can set the total high enough in this game take OVER
yes, NO has a very good chance of winning and if so, I would pick NO to win SB
SB projected (* likely winner)
GB* vs NE @Indianapolis
GB 2ndary appears to be much better than NE
NE, BAL/PIT, HOU, DEN/OAK, BAL/PIT, CIN/TEN/NYJ/OAK
AFC Wild card (* likely winner)
CIN*/TEN/NYJ/OAK @HOU
BAL/PIT* @DEN/OAK
can't see the home teams winning
AFC Division projected (* likely winner)
HOU/CIN/TEN/NYJ/OAK @NE*
DEN/OAK/BAL/PIT @BAL*/PIT
and this week the home teams can't lose
AFC Conference projected (* likely winner)
BAL @NE*
and though mid-season I picked BAL to go to SB, I've changed my mind
Flacco is just not good enough on the road & Brady @home will prove to be insurmountable
NFC Playoff contenders
GB, SF, NO, DAL/NYG, DET, ATL
NFC Wild card (* likely winner)
ATL @NO*
DET* @NYG/DAL
DET is probably weakest pick, funny how I pick'd a dome team? notice only NYG is the only non-dome team?
NFC Division projected (* likely winner)
DAL/NYG/DET @GB*
NO*/ATL @SF
NO is hot, GB was hottest
NFC Conference projected (* likely winner)
NO @GB*
re-match of 1st game of season, again going GBs way
I don't think they can set the total high enough in this game take OVER
yes, NO has a very good chance of winning and if so, I would pick NO to win SB
SB projected (* likely winner)
GB* vs NE @Indianapolis
GB 2ndary appears to be much better than NE
2011 week 16 - results
GAME ATS/TOTAL
HOU@IND W/W
OAK@KC L/W I just didn't think OAK could pull it off on the road
DEN@BUF W/L subtract 2int's returned for TD's and Under total occurs
JAC@TEN L/P TEN won SU, lost ATS
ARI@CIN L/L CIN D shutouts ARI for 3Qs, ARI O 4Q comeback too little/late
MIA@NE W/W
CLE@BAL L/W CLE continues SU/ATS lose/win streak (3rd game)
NYG@NYJ W/L just under total, sputtering O's
MIN@WAS L/L UPSET! MIN QB&RB subs win the half & the day
TB@CAR W/W
STL@PIT L/W thinkin' too much
SD@DET L/L on the wrong side/total...
SF@SEA L/W arggh, 1/2pt hook got me
PHI@DAL W/L DAL rested players midQ1 (next wk DAL@NYG, for NFC E title)
CHI@GB W/L so many pts by CHI...
ATL@NO W/W
weekly results:
ATS/TOTAL
W-L-P/W-L-P
8-8/8-7-1
for the year:
ATS/TOTAL
125-108-7/128-108-4
just another self observation - w/holidays, it's just that much tougher to find the time to spend analyzing games before/after making picks and coming up with solid choices. So since around Thankgiving and nasty cold I had for a week or two, I don't think I was as sharp or as involved as I could be
HOU@IND W/W
OAK@KC L/W I just didn't think OAK could pull it off on the road
DEN@BUF W/L subtract 2int's returned for TD's and Under total occurs
JAC@TEN L/P TEN won SU, lost ATS
ARI@CIN L/L CIN D shutouts ARI for 3Qs, ARI O 4Q comeback too little/late
MIA@NE W/W
CLE@BAL L/W CLE continues SU/ATS lose/win streak (3rd game)
NYG@NYJ W/L just under total, sputtering O's
MIN@WAS L/L UPSET! MIN QB&RB subs win the half & the day
TB@CAR W/W
STL@PIT L/W thinkin' too much
SD@DET L/L on the wrong side/total...
SF@SEA L/W arggh, 1/2pt hook got me
PHI@DAL W/L DAL rested players midQ1 (next wk DAL@NYG, for NFC E title)
CHI@GB W/L so many pts by CHI...
ATL@NO W/W
weekly results:
ATS/TOTAL
W-L-P/W-L-P
8-8/8-7-1
for the year:
ATS/TOTAL
125-108-7/128-108-4
just another self observation - w/holidays, it's just that much tougher to find the time to spend analyzing games before/after making picks and coming up with solid choices. So since around Thankgiving and nasty cold I had for a week or two, I don't think I was as sharp or as involved as I could be
Friday, December 23, 2011
2011 week 16 - Sat, Sun, Mon - picks
12/24 1:00 PM
103 OAK 42 UNDER
104 KC -2.5 *
12/24 1:00 PM
105 DEN -3 UNDER
106 BUF 41 *
just thinkin BUF D will stop DEN runO and since they're @home...
12/24 1:00 PM
107 JAC 40 UNDER
108 TEN -7.5 *
I could take JAC due to 1/2 pt hook, but I'm not
12/24 1:00 PM
109 ARI 40½ ***
110 CIN -4.5 OVER
12/24 1:00 PM
111 MIA 48½ *
112 NE -9.5 OVER
just taking MIA, just cuz NE may have done too much last game
12/24 1:00 PM
113 CLE 38½ UNDER
114 BAL -12.5 *
12/24 1:00 PM
115 NYG 45½ *
116 NYJ -3 OVER
12/24 1:00 PM
117 MIN 44 UNDER
118 WAS -6.5 *
12/24 1:00 PM
119 TB 47½ over
120 CAR -7.5 *
12/24 1:00 PM
121 STL 34½ *
122 PIT -13.5 UNDER
so much hesitation by books to put up a number I finally see (this friday) Hilton and Stations have put up a number
12/24 4:05 PM
123 SD 52½ ****
124 DET -2.5 OVER
SD & DET are heading in opposite directions
12/24 4:15 PM
125 SF -2.5 *
126 SEA 38 UNDER
SEA is doing well, 1st game went way over total, I'm thinking the opposite direction this game
12/24 4:15 PM
127 PHI 50½ *
128 DAL -1.5 OVER
FU or DU or DO?
12/25 8:30 PM
129 CHI 43½ UNDER
130 GB -12 ***
12/26 8:35 PM
131 ATL 52½ OVER
132 NO -6.5 *
103 OAK 42 UNDER
104 KC -2.5 *
12/24 1:00 PM
105 DEN -3 UNDER
106 BUF 41 *
just thinkin BUF D will stop DEN runO and since they're @home...
12/24 1:00 PM
107 JAC 40 UNDER
108 TEN -7.5 *
I could take JAC due to 1/2 pt hook, but I'm not
12/24 1:00 PM
109 ARI 40½ ***
110 CIN -4.5 OVER
12/24 1:00 PM
111 MIA 48½ *
112 NE -9.5 OVER
just taking MIA, just cuz NE may have done too much last game
12/24 1:00 PM
113 CLE 38½ UNDER
114 BAL -12.5 *
12/24 1:00 PM
115 NYG 45½ *
116 NYJ -3 OVER
12/24 1:00 PM
117 MIN 44 UNDER
118 WAS -6.5 *
12/24 1:00 PM
119 TB 47½ over
120 CAR -7.5 *
12/24 1:00 PM
121 STL 34½ *
122 PIT -13.5 UNDER
so much hesitation by books to put up a number I finally see (this friday) Hilton and Stations have put up a number
12/24 4:05 PM
123 SD 52½ ****
124 DET -2.5 OVER
SD & DET are heading in opposite directions
12/24 4:15 PM
125 SF -2.5 *
126 SEA 38 UNDER
SEA is doing well, 1st game went way over total, I'm thinking the opposite direction this game
12/24 4:15 PM
127 PHI 50½ *
128 DAL -1.5 OVER
FU or DU or DO?
12/25 8:30 PM
129 CHI 43½ UNDER
130 GB -12 ***
12/26 8:35 PM
131 ATL 52½ OVER
132 NO -6.5 *
Wednesday, December 21, 2011
2011 week 16 - Thursday night - pick
12/22 8:25 PM
101 HOU -6 UNDER
102 IND 40½ *
I'm just thinkin' w/HOU & IND trending in opposite directions....
101 HOU -6 UNDER
102 IND 40½ *
I'm just thinkin' w/HOU & IND trending in opposite directions....
Monday, December 19, 2011
2011 - week 15 - results
GAME ATS/TOTAL
JAC@ATL L/W sigh, JAC was just like SD, 3rd game in 11days
DAL@TB W/W
WAS@NYG L/L now why did I pick NYG & Over?
GB@KC L/L upset of the year?
NO@MIN W/W
SEA@CHI W/L another road win and over the total
MIA@BUF W/L Q4 so much scoring by both teams
CAR@HOU W/L just when you think CAR D will give up 20+pts, they don't
TEN@IND L/L huge upset
CIN@STL W/W
DET@OAK P/W
NE@DEN W/W
NYJ@PHI L/W so PHI are officially spoilers
CLE@ARI L/W ARI SU win, ATS loss
BAL@SD L/L very ugly game for BAL on O & D, SD is UP!
PIT@SF L/W oops - thought that a better 3-4D would give SF more trouble
weekly results:
ATS/TOTAL
W-L-P/W-L-P
7-8-1/9-7
for the year:
ATS/TOTAL
117-100-7/120-101-3
too many L/L which mean upsets for me, though the WAS@NYG game was on my radar, I failed to change it (my picks), sigh....
Huge UPSET w/GB loss, smaller upsets w/TEN, BAL, PIT, NYJ losses
I noticed all road teams for the above
JAC@ATL L/W sigh, JAC was just like SD, 3rd game in 11days
DAL@TB W/W
WAS@NYG L/L now why did I pick NYG & Over?
GB@KC L/L upset of the year?
NO@MIN W/W
SEA@CHI W/L another road win and over the total
MIA@BUF W/L Q4 so much scoring by both teams
CAR@HOU W/L just when you think CAR D will give up 20+pts, they don't
TEN@IND L/L huge upset
CIN@STL W/W
DET@OAK P/W
NE@DEN W/W
NYJ@PHI L/W so PHI are officially spoilers
CLE@ARI L/W ARI SU win, ATS loss
BAL@SD L/L very ugly game for BAL on O & D, SD is UP!
PIT@SF L/W oops - thought that a better 3-4D would give SF more trouble
weekly results:
ATS/TOTAL
W-L-P/W-L-P
7-8-1/9-7
for the year:
ATS/TOTAL
117-100-7/120-101-3
too many L/L which mean upsets for me, though the WAS@NYG game was on my radar, I failed to change it (my picks), sigh....
Huge UPSET w/GB loss, smaller upsets w/TEN, BAL, PIT, NYJ losses
I noticed all road teams for the above
Thursday, December 15, 2011
2011 week 15 - Sun-Mon picks
12/18 1:00 PM
305 WAS 45½ over
306 NYG -7 *
hard not to pick NYG, but they could lose ATS, WAS lacks O & w/LT & TE out...
12/18 1:00 PM
307 GB -14 *
308 KC 45½ over
GB may go over total by themselves
KC no matter who starts QB will be lucky to score 10pts
12/18 1:00 PM
309 NO -7 *****
310 MIN 50½ over
NO should cover, but they play much better @home
12/18 1:00 PM
311 SEA 35½ *****
312 CHI -3.5 UNDER
Now why is CHI favored? sure their D is good, but QB stinks, lacks accuracy
12/18 1:00 PM
313 MIA -1.5 *
314 BUF 42½ under
even w/HC fired MIA s/b playing for next yr
12/18 1:00 PM
315 CAR 45½ *
316 HOU -6.5 over
w/o DC Wade Philips & LG Breisel
12/18 1:00 PM
317 TEN -6.5 *
318 IND 41 over
TEN has been waiting along time to do this again
12/18 1:00 PM
319 CIN -6.5 *
320 STL 38½ UNDER
STL QB Bradford appears to be shell-shocked
12/18 4:05 PM
321 DET -1 *
322 OAK 48 OVER
hard to pick neither team is play well, just OAK looks worse
12/18 4:15 PM
323 NE -6 *
324 DEN 45½ over
12/18 4:15 PM
325 NYJ 44 *
326 PHI -2.5 over
NYJ w/o S Leonard went 2-3 SU last year, we'll see this year
12/18 4:15 PM
327 CLE 37½ under?
328 ARI -6.5 ****
CLE QB Wallace starts
12/18 8:25 PM
329 BAL -2.5 ****
330 SD 44 under
12/19 8:35 PM
331 PIT 39½ ***
332 SF -2.5 UNDER
why PIT? read this http://blogs.nfl.com/2011/12/12/playbook-cardinals-blitz-stymies-smith/ and PIT has the blue print 3-4 D
305 WAS 45½ over
306 NYG -7 *
hard not to pick NYG, but they could lose ATS, WAS lacks O & w/LT & TE out...
12/18 1:00 PM
307 GB -14 *
308 KC 45½ over
GB may go over total by themselves
KC no matter who starts QB will be lucky to score 10pts
12/18 1:00 PM
309 NO -7 *****
310 MIN 50½ over
NO should cover, but they play much better @home
12/18 1:00 PM
311 SEA 35½ *****
312 CHI -3.5 UNDER
Now why is CHI favored? sure their D is good, but QB stinks, lacks accuracy
12/18 1:00 PM
313 MIA -1.5 *
314 BUF 42½ under
even w/HC fired MIA s/b playing for next yr
12/18 1:00 PM
315 CAR 45½ *
316 HOU -6.5 over
w/o DC Wade Philips & LG Breisel
12/18 1:00 PM
317 TEN -6.5 *
318 IND 41 over
TEN has been waiting along time to do this again
12/18 1:00 PM
319 CIN -6.5 *
320 STL 38½ UNDER
STL QB Bradford appears to be shell-shocked
12/18 4:05 PM
321 DET -1 *
322 OAK 48 OVER
hard to pick neither team is play well, just OAK looks worse
12/18 4:15 PM
323 NE -6 *
324 DEN 45½ over
12/18 4:15 PM
325 NYJ 44 *
326 PHI -2.5 over
NYJ w/o S Leonard went 2-3 SU last year, we'll see this year
12/18 4:15 PM
327 CLE 37½ under?
328 ARI -6.5 ****
CLE QB Wallace starts
12/18 8:25 PM
329 BAL -2.5 ****
330 SD 44 under
12/19 8:35 PM
331 PIT 39½ ***
332 SF -2.5 UNDER
why PIT? read this http://blogs.nfl.com/2011/12/12/playbook-cardinals-blitz-stymies-smith/ and PIT has the blue print 3-4 D
Tuesday, December 13, 2011
2011 week 15 - Saturday night - picks
12/17 8:20 PM
303 DAL -7 ***
304 TB 46½ under
TB is just not cohesive at all, some say they've mailed it in for the season.
DAL have won last 3 meetings '06,'08,'09
303 DAL -7 ***
304 TB 46½ under
TB is just not cohesive at all, some say they've mailed it in for the season.
DAL have won last 3 meetings '06,'08,'09
2011 week 15 - Thursday night - picks
12/15 8:25 PM
301 JAC 42½ *
302 ATL -11.5 OVER
Even though this is JAC 3rd game in 11 days, I'm thinking JAC will stay close for the ATS win, but SU loss, I slightly favor OVER the total
301 JAC 42½ *
302 ATL -11.5 OVER
Even though this is JAC 3rd game in 11 days, I'm thinking JAC will stay close for the ATS win, but SU loss, I slightly favor OVER the total
2011 week 14 - results
GAME ATS/TOTAL
CLE@PIT L/W PIT QB & C inj'd Q2 out for significant part of game
IND@BAL L/W IND last drive TD gets the ATS win
HOU@CIN W/L just over the total
OAK@GB W/L another TD and GB would have gone over total by themselves
KC@NYJ W/L NYJ explodes Q2 scoring 21pts, KC S inj'd Q2
MIN@DET W/W
NO@TEN L/W TEN QB Hasselbeck inj'd Q2
PHI@MIA L/W PHI explodes Q2 scoring 24pts, MIA LT inj'd Q1
NE@WAS L/L WAS O plays up or is NE D that bad?
ATL@CAR W/W
TB@JAC W/L JAC explodes Q2 scoring 28pts
SF@ARI L/W ARI splits division series wins w/o QB1 inj'd Q1, SF LT inj'd Q1
CHI@DEN L/W 1/2pt hook
BUF@SD W/L just under the total by a half pt
NYG@DAL W/W
STL@SEA W/L SEA blocked punt returned for TD Q1 - just over total
weekly results:
ATS/TOTAL
W-L-P/W-L-P
9-7/9-7
for the year:
ATS/TOTAL
110-92-6/111-94-3
I was able to get only 3 games exact (MIN@DET, ATL@CAR, NYG@DAL) and all were over games. There were several surprise games going 'over' the total and several road ATS wins (PHI, CHI, CLE, IND).
CLE@PIT L/W PIT QB & C inj'd Q2 out for significant part of game
IND@BAL L/W IND last drive TD gets the ATS win
HOU@CIN W/L just over the total
OAK@GB W/L another TD and GB would have gone over total by themselves
KC@NYJ W/L NYJ explodes Q2 scoring 21pts, KC S inj'd Q2
MIN@DET W/W
NO@TEN L/W TEN QB Hasselbeck inj'd Q2
PHI@MIA L/W PHI explodes Q2 scoring 24pts, MIA LT inj'd Q1
NE@WAS L/L WAS O plays up or is NE D that bad?
ATL@CAR W/W
TB@JAC W/L JAC explodes Q2 scoring 28pts
SF@ARI L/W ARI splits division series wins w/o QB1 inj'd Q1, SF LT inj'd Q1
CHI@DEN L/W 1/2pt hook
BUF@SD W/L just under the total by a half pt
NYG@DAL W/W
STL@SEA W/L SEA blocked punt returned for TD Q1 - just over total
weekly results:
ATS/TOTAL
W-L-P/W-L-P
9-7/9-7
for the year:
ATS/TOTAL
110-92-6/111-94-3
I was able to get only 3 games exact (MIN@DET, ATL@CAR, NYG@DAL) and all were over games. There were several surprise games going 'over' the total and several road ATS wins (PHI, CHI, CLE, IND).
Thursday, December 08, 2011
2011 week 14 - Sun-Mon - picks
12/11 1:00 PM
105 IND 41 UNDER
106 BAL -16.5 **
IND has won last 8 match ups since '02, w/new RCB & nickel & maybe LBx2
I'm sure BAL HC will bring the above to players attention.
12/11 1:00 PM
107 HOU 37½ *
108 CIN -3 UNDER
I just think CIN is still young on O
and HOU has a D to be reckoned with as well as really good runO
12/11 4:15 PM
109 OAK 52½ UNDER
110 GB -11 ***
Time-change to 04:15pm EST
were the raiders embarrass'd last week?
as for GB, I think there will be focus by WRs & TEs due to # of dropped passes
12/11 1:00 PM
111 KC 36½ UNDER
112 NYJ -9 ***
KC was a little lucky w/TD & int last wk @CHI, CHI OC needed to run more
KC OC nice play calling vs a very good D, KC DC really did well, KC ST good as well
I just don't think it'll happen two weeks in a row
12/11 1:00 PM
113 MIN 48½ *
114 DET -7 OVER
hard to pick who'll win, so take points, both D's have been giving up alot of points for the last month or so AND multiple starters out
12/11 1:00 PM
115 NO -3.5 under?
116 TEN 48½ *
FO or DU?
tuff to pick
12/11 1:00 PM
117 PHI 44 under
118 MIA -3 ***
even if PHI QB Vick starts, PHI still looks 'half-baked'
12/11 1:00 PM
119 NE -8 ******
120 WAS 48 under
WAS LT(best OLineman) & TE(leading rcvr) susp'd
12/11 1:00 PM
121 ATL -2.5 *****
122 CAR 48½ over
CAR a bit beat up, new DT & NT
12/11 1:00 PM
123 TB -1 UNDER
124 JAC 37½ ***
JAC has won last 3 match ups (since '98, 2@JAC 1@TB)
There are observations on 'net that TB has quit
12/11 4:05 PM
125 SF -3.5 ***
126 ARI 39½ UNDER
SF has swept series last 2 years
ARI big emo OT win last week
12/11 4:05 PM
127 CHI 36½ UNDER
128 DEN -3.5 *****
Maybe DEN doesn't cover spread, but they should win. I just don't have any trust
w/CHI OC & DC
12/11 4:15 PM
129 BUF 47½ over?
130 SD -7 ****
BUF in spoiler role, but this is when SD tends to heat up
12/11 8:30 PM
131 NYG 49 *
132 DAL -3.5 OVER
DAL 0-3 ATS vs Division rivals
since '06 1st game of series is high scoring
NYG has won last 2 games @DAL
tuff to pick again, DAL HC mismanages games again?
12/12 8:35 PM
133 STL 39½ UNDER
134 SEA -6.5 *****
STL QB ? & OL shuffle?
FOG projected during whole game
105 IND 41 UNDER
106 BAL -16.5 **
IND has won last 8 match ups since '02, w/new RCB & nickel & maybe LBx2
I'm sure BAL HC will bring the above to players attention.
12/11 1:00 PM
107 HOU 37½ *
108 CIN -3 UNDER
I just think CIN is still young on O
and HOU has a D to be reckoned with as well as really good runO
12/11 4:15 PM
109 OAK 52½ UNDER
110 GB -11 ***
Time-change to 04:15pm EST
were the raiders embarrass'd last week?
as for GB, I think there will be focus by WRs & TEs due to # of dropped passes
12/11 1:00 PM
111 KC 36½ UNDER
112 NYJ -9 ***
KC was a little lucky w/TD & int last wk @CHI, CHI OC needed to run more
KC OC nice play calling vs a very good D, KC DC really did well, KC ST good as well
I just don't think it'll happen two weeks in a row
12/11 1:00 PM
113 MIN 48½ *
114 DET -7 OVER
hard to pick who'll win, so take points, both D's have been giving up alot of points for the last month or so AND multiple starters out
12/11 1:00 PM
115 NO -3.5 under?
116 TEN 48½ *
FO or DU?
tuff to pick
12/11 1:00 PM
117 PHI 44 under
118 MIA -3 ***
even if PHI QB Vick starts, PHI still looks 'half-baked'
12/11 1:00 PM
119 NE -8 ******
120 WAS 48 under
WAS LT(best OLineman) & TE(leading rcvr) susp'd
12/11 1:00 PM
121 ATL -2.5 *****
122 CAR 48½ over
CAR a bit beat up, new DT & NT
12/11 1:00 PM
123 TB -1 UNDER
124 JAC 37½ ***
JAC has won last 3 match ups (since '98, 2@JAC 1@TB)
There are observations on 'net that TB has quit
12/11 4:05 PM
125 SF -3.5 ***
126 ARI 39½ UNDER
SF has swept series last 2 years
ARI big emo OT win last week
12/11 4:05 PM
127 CHI 36½ UNDER
128 DEN -3.5 *****
Maybe DEN doesn't cover spread, but they should win. I just don't have any trust
w/CHI OC & DC
12/11 4:15 PM
129 BUF 47½ over?
130 SD -7 ****
BUF in spoiler role, but this is when SD tends to heat up
12/11 8:30 PM
131 NYG 49 *
132 DAL -3.5 OVER
DAL 0-3 ATS vs Division rivals
since '06 1st game of series is high scoring
NYG has won last 2 games @DAL
tuff to pick again, DAL HC mismanages games again?
12/12 8:35 PM
133 STL 39½ UNDER
134 SEA -6.5 *****
STL QB ? & OL shuffle?
FOG projected during whole game
Tuesday, December 06, 2011
2011 week 13 - results
GAME ATS/TOTAL
PHI@SEA L/L I should've believed reports of SEA QB Jackson and rapport w/WRs. I just thought w/#1WR Rice out, no one would step up. I also missed some clues 1)PHI was lucky in prior game winning despite 3:2 TO ratio, 2) this game was setup just like NYG game before bye week. SEA D played well again and O came through, I should've stuck w/my instincts.
TEN@BUF W/W
KC@CHI W/W
OAK@MIA W/W
CIN@PIT L/W ouch, thought CIN would split div series, PIT 7th sweep in 11yrs
BAL@CLE W/W
NYJ@WAS W/L NYJ 21pts Q4
ATL@HOU L/W so what's wrong w/ATL O? QB?
CAR@TB W/W
DET@NO W/L DET collapsed in Q2
DEN@MIN W/W
STL@SF L/W STL QB AJ Feeley, ugghh
DAL@ARI L/W and wouldn't you know DAL HC/OC can't manage a game
GB@NYG L/L NYG played up for this game, again to the level of competition
IND@NE L/L NE led 31-3 in Q4, allows IND 3TD rally
SD@JAC W/L hmmmm more scoring than I thought
weekly results:
ATS/TOTAL
W-L-P/W-L-P
9-7/10-6
for the year:
ATS/TOTAL
101-85-6/102-87-3
somehow got sick again, I blame the lady who kept coughing while I stood inline behind her at the grocery checkout. I should've left and come back 15min later, but I still did ok in picks, though there were some obvious ones to me that I should've gotten correct if I could have seen through that flu/fog that clouded my thinking.
I'm still thinkin' BAL vs GB for SB... though PIT is playing outstanding
funny how NE & GB have similar numbers
AFC West is toughest division to assess, I do give DEN the nod at this time.
HOU D and ST will need to continue to play as well as DEN does and if CHI D & ST would do so as well, then they could get the wild card, but do you trust OC Martz??
HOU @CIN will be the game I'll be most curious to see the outcome, I think HOU at this time. NYG @DAL should be high scoring as to who will win.... beats me.
PHI@SEA L/L I should've believed reports of SEA QB Jackson and rapport w/WRs. I just thought w/#1WR Rice out, no one would step up. I also missed some clues 1)PHI was lucky in prior game winning despite 3:2 TO ratio, 2) this game was setup just like NYG game before bye week. SEA D played well again and O came through, I should've stuck w/my instincts.
TEN@BUF W/W
KC@CHI W/W
OAK@MIA W/W
CIN@PIT L/W ouch, thought CIN would split div series, PIT 7th sweep in 11yrs
BAL@CLE W/W
NYJ@WAS W/L NYJ 21pts Q4
ATL@HOU L/W so what's wrong w/ATL O? QB?
CAR@TB W/W
DET@NO W/L DET collapsed in Q2
DEN@MIN W/W
STL@SF L/W STL QB AJ Feeley, ugghh
DAL@ARI L/W and wouldn't you know DAL HC/OC can't manage a game
GB@NYG L/L NYG played up for this game, again to the level of competition
IND@NE L/L NE led 31-3 in Q4, allows IND 3TD rally
SD@JAC W/L hmmmm more scoring than I thought
weekly results:
ATS/TOTAL
W-L-P/W-L-P
9-7/10-6
for the year:
ATS/TOTAL
101-85-6/102-87-3
somehow got sick again, I blame the lady who kept coughing while I stood inline behind her at the grocery checkout. I should've left and come back 15min later, but I still did ok in picks, though there were some obvious ones to me that I should've gotten correct if I could have seen through that flu/fog that clouded my thinking.
I'm still thinkin' BAL vs GB for SB... though PIT is playing outstanding
funny how NE & GB have similar numbers
AFC West is toughest division to assess, I do give DEN the nod at this time.
HOU D and ST will need to continue to play as well as DEN does and if CHI D & ST would do so as well, then they could get the wild card, but do you trust OC Martz??
HOU @CIN will be the game I'll be most curious to see the outcome, I think HOU at this time. NYG @DAL should be high scoring as to who will win.... beats me.
Friday, December 02, 2011
2011 week 13 Sun-Mon picks
12/04 1:00 PM
347 TEN 43½ *
348 BUF -1.5 UNDER
weather
12/04 1:00 PM
349 KC 37½ *
350 CHI -7 UNDER
weather
12/04 1:00 PM
351 OAK 43 OVER
352 MIA -3 *
12/04 1:00 PM
353 CIN 42½ **
354 PIT -6.5 over
windy
12/04 4:05 PM
355 BAL -6.5 *****
356 CLE 38 UNDER
RAIN
12/04 1:00 PM
357 NYJ -3 *
358 WAS 38½ UNDER
WAS has lost this season to BUF & MIA
12/04 1:00 PM
359 ATL -2.5 ****
360 HOU 37½ UNDER
HOU new QB Yates
12/04 1:00 PM
361 CAR 47½ **
362 TB -3 OVER
TB QB Freeman out???
12/04 8:30 PM
363 DET 53½ OVER
364 NO -9 **
Time-change to 08:30pm EST
12/04 1:00 PM
365 DEN 37½ *
366 MIN -1.5 UNDER
Time-change to 01:00pm EST
12/04 4:15 PM
367 STL 37½ *
368 SF -13 UNDER
12/04 4:15 PM
369 DAL -4.5 *
370 ARI 45½ under
371 GB -7 ***
372 NYG 53 under
12/04 1:00 PM
373 IND 48 UNDER
374 NE -20 *
Time-change to 01:00pm EST
IND new QB Orlovsky
IND DC Coyle fired, LB coach replaces
12/05 8:35 PM
375 SD -3 *
376 JAC 39½ UNDER
Game 1 after JAC HC fired on Tuesday,
interim HC Mel Tucker
JAC OC now JAC OC & QB coach
JAC QB now JAC WR coach
JAC WR coach fired
roster moves as well, cut WR, promoted RB from PS
3rd consecutive week w/2ndary player on IR OFY
SD has injuries that have affected play, starting LG & LT IR OFY
347 TEN 43½ *
348 BUF -1.5 UNDER
weather
12/04 1:00 PM
349 KC 37½ *
350 CHI -7 UNDER
weather
12/04 1:00 PM
351 OAK 43 OVER
352 MIA -3 *
12/04 1:00 PM
353 CIN 42½ **
354 PIT -6.5 over
windy
12/04 4:05 PM
355 BAL -6.5 *****
356 CLE 38 UNDER
RAIN
12/04 1:00 PM
357 NYJ -3 *
358 WAS 38½ UNDER
WAS has lost this season to BUF & MIA
12/04 1:00 PM
359 ATL -2.5 ****
360 HOU 37½ UNDER
HOU new QB Yates
12/04 1:00 PM
361 CAR 47½ **
362 TB -3 OVER
TB QB Freeman out???
12/04 8:30 PM
363 DET 53½ OVER
364 NO -9 **
Time-change to 08:30pm EST
12/04 1:00 PM
365 DEN 37½ *
366 MIN -1.5 UNDER
Time-change to 01:00pm EST
12/04 4:15 PM
367 STL 37½ *
368 SF -13 UNDER
12/04 4:15 PM
369 DAL -4.5 *
370 ARI 45½ under
371 GB -7 ***
372 NYG 53 under
12/04 1:00 PM
373 IND 48 UNDER
374 NE -20 *
Time-change to 01:00pm EST
IND new QB Orlovsky
IND DC Coyle fired, LB coach replaces
12/05 8:35 PM
375 SD -3 *
376 JAC 39½ UNDER
Game 1 after JAC HC fired on Tuesday,
interim HC Mel Tucker
JAC OC now JAC OC & QB coach
JAC QB now JAC WR coach
JAC WR coach fired
roster moves as well, cut WR, promoted RB from PS
3rd consecutive week w/2ndary player on IR OFY
SD has injuries that have affected play, starting LG & LT IR OFY
Thursday, December 01, 2011
2011 week 13 - Thursday night pick
12/01 8:25 PM
301 PHI -3 **
302 SEA 43½ UNDER
odd teams as they are splitting 1st/2nd games on the road for PHI & @home for SEA,
so since PHI won last out on the road and SEA lost last time @home
As for total, PHI has had two games go over the above total since bye week and SEA has had one game, I favor the UNDER
update:
SEA WR#1 IR OFY, note SEA 1-4 SU on Thursday
see http://blog.seahawks.com/tag/mike-morgan/
change pick to PHI
301 PHI -3 **
302 SEA 43½ UNDER
odd teams as they are splitting 1st/2nd games on the road for PHI & @home for SEA,
so since PHI won last out on the road and SEA lost last time @home
As for total, PHI has had two games go over the above total since bye week and SEA has had one game, I favor the UNDER
update:
SEA WR#1 IR OFY, note SEA 1-4 SU on Thursday
see http://blog.seahawks.com/tag/mike-morgan/
change pick to PHI
Tuesday, November 29, 2011
2011 week 12 - results
for a week where the effort wasn't as great as previous week due to prep for turkey day and relaxation, the result were ok, next week - more of the same...
GAME ATS/TOTAL
GB@DET W/L a lot less scoring than anticipated
MIA@DAL W/W
SF@BAL L/W BAL really appears to be a SB contender
ARI@STL W/L two punt returned for TDs = over total
BUF@NYJ L/L BUF great effort could've won
CLE@CIN L/L CLE plays up for battle of Ohio
HOU@JAC W/W
CAR@IND L/L guess IND will be 0-fer this year...
TB@TEN W/W
MIN@ATL P/W
CHI@OAK W/W
WAS@SEA L/L WAS Q1/Q4 plays great, Q2-3 so-so, SEA led 17-7 in Q4 (SEA relaxed?)
NE@PHI W/W
DEN@SD W/L so why did I pick the over???
PIT@KC L/W closer than expected... KC played UP
NYG@NO L/W should've known.... w/renaming of SuperDome to Mercedes-Benz
weekly results:
ATS/TOTAL
W-L-P/W-L-P
8-7-1/9-7
for the year:
ATS/TOTAL
92-78-6/92-81-3
teams coming off bye week(COB)
SU/ATS NO & HOU 1-0, IND 0-1 ,PIT 1-1 (won SU, lost ATS)
GAME ATS/TOTAL
GB@DET W/L a lot less scoring than anticipated
MIA@DAL W/W
SF@BAL L/W BAL really appears to be a SB contender
ARI@STL W/L two punt returned for TDs = over total
BUF@NYJ L/L BUF great effort could've won
CLE@CIN L/L CLE plays up for battle of Ohio
HOU@JAC W/W
CAR@IND L/L guess IND will be 0-fer this year...
TB@TEN W/W
MIN@ATL P/W
CHI@OAK W/W
WAS@SEA L/L WAS Q1/Q4 plays great, Q2-3 so-so, SEA led 17-7 in Q4 (SEA relaxed?)
NE@PHI W/W
DEN@SD W/L so why did I pick the over???
PIT@KC L/W closer than expected... KC played UP
NYG@NO L/W should've known.... w/renaming of SuperDome to Mercedes-Benz
weekly results:
ATS/TOTAL
W-L-P/W-L-P
8-7-1/9-7
for the year:
ATS/TOTAL
92-78-6/92-81-3
teams coming off bye week(COB)
SU/ATS NO & HOU 1-0, IND 0-1 ,PIT 1-1 (won SU, lost ATS)
Sunday, November 27, 2011
2011 week 12 - Sun-Mon - picks
Late post about 1/2 hr prior to games, been lazy this weekend, must be all that gobble, gobble food. :-)
Notes below are from mon-tues, haven't updated w/inj's, who starts etc. where does all the time go??
11/27 1:00 PM
215 ARI 40½ *
216 STL -3 UNDER
just thinking STL really beat up
11/27 1:00 PM
217 BUF 42½ UNDER
218 NYJ -9 ***
BUF hasn't played well for weeks, they s/b more UP for this game, but I suspect it won't be enough
BUF past 2 games lost 4 players to IR (LB, C, WR, LCB)
11/27 1:00 PM
219 CLE 38½ UNDER
220 CIN -7 *****
spread s/b something like -14.5, it's a battle for Ohio but CIN D looks that good and CLE O looks that bad
11/27 1:00 PM
221 HOU -6.5 *****
222 JAC 37 under
again spread s/b -13.5
11/27 1:00 PM
223 CAR -3.5 over
224 IND 46½ *
IND final? chance to win a game? we should see much more effort coming off bye and w/CAR TOs s/b 2+ edge to IND
11/27 1:00 PM
225 TB 44 under
226 TEN -3 *
I just think TB TO's will be around 2 and TEN will convert to points
TEN OL not doing well, Does Hasselbeck start?
TEN 4-5 starters out? RT? LB? DE?
TEN D can be run on
11/27 1:00 PM
227 MIN 44½ under
228 ATL -10 *****
MIN w/o RB Petersen what can they do?
11/27 4:05 PM
229 CHI 41½ over?
230 OAK -3 *
unsure of this pick, CHI QB Hanie 1st start how well will he do? CHI D & ST can only carry game so much.
If total were a bit higher I'd go under.
hmmmm new LS for CHI, something to watch
11/27 4:05 PM
231 WAS 37½ under
232 SEA -3 *
which WAS team will appear?
SEA runO and DL!!
11/27 4:15 PM
233 NE -3 *
234 PHI 50½ over
even w/PHI @home how long can QB Young sustain magic?
11/27 4:15 PM
235 DEN 42 *
236 SD -4.5 over
11/27 8:30 PM
237 PIT -10.5 *****
238 KC 41 under
KC QB Palko 2nd start enough said
11/28 8:35 PM
239 NYG 51½ *
240 NO -7 over
NYG D should give NO O trouble
angry Gmen make news on ESPN
Notes below are from mon-tues, haven't updated w/inj's, who starts etc. where does all the time go??
11/27 1:00 PM
215 ARI 40½ *
216 STL -3 UNDER
just thinking STL really beat up
11/27 1:00 PM
217 BUF 42½ UNDER
218 NYJ -9 ***
BUF hasn't played well for weeks, they s/b more UP for this game, but I suspect it won't be enough
BUF past 2 games lost 4 players to IR (LB, C, WR, LCB)
11/27 1:00 PM
219 CLE 38½ UNDER
220 CIN -7 *****
spread s/b something like -14.5, it's a battle for Ohio but CIN D looks that good and CLE O looks that bad
11/27 1:00 PM
221 HOU -6.5 *****
222 JAC 37 under
again spread s/b -13.5
11/27 1:00 PM
223 CAR -3.5 over
224 IND 46½ *
IND final? chance to win a game? we should see much more effort coming off bye and w/CAR TOs s/b 2+ edge to IND
11/27 1:00 PM
225 TB 44 under
226 TEN -3 *
I just think TB TO's will be around 2 and TEN will convert to points
TEN OL not doing well, Does Hasselbeck start?
TEN 4-5 starters out? RT? LB? DE?
TEN D can be run on
11/27 1:00 PM
227 MIN 44½ under
228 ATL -10 *****
MIN w/o RB Petersen what can they do?
11/27 4:05 PM
229 CHI 41½ over?
230 OAK -3 *
unsure of this pick, CHI QB Hanie 1st start how well will he do? CHI D & ST can only carry game so much.
If total were a bit higher I'd go under.
hmmmm new LS for CHI, something to watch
11/27 4:05 PM
231 WAS 37½ under
232 SEA -3 *
which WAS team will appear?
SEA runO and DL!!
11/27 4:15 PM
233 NE -3 *
234 PHI 50½ over
even w/PHI @home how long can QB Young sustain magic?
11/27 4:15 PM
235 DEN 42 *
236 SD -4.5 over
11/27 8:30 PM
237 PIT -10.5 *****
238 KC 41 under
KC QB Palko 2nd start enough said
11/28 8:35 PM
239 NYG 51½ *
240 NO -7 over
NYG D should give NO O trouble
angry Gmen make news on ESPN
Tuesday, November 22, 2011
2011 week 12 Thursday night picks
11/24 12:30 PM
103 GB -6 *
104 DET 55½ OVER
DET on turkey day has lost since '04. GB has won in '07 & '09 and this version of GB is even better as well as DET, so OVER is favored, w/leaning toward GB
11/24 4:15 PM
105 MIA 44½ *
106 DAL -7 UNDER
DAL vs AFC East
wk1 @NYJ 24-27
wk6 @NE 16-20
wk10 vsBUF 44-7
MIA D vs DAL O is much more predictable than
DAL D vs MIA O but I'll give edge to MIA
WAS & BUF common opponents in last 3 weeks
11/24 8:20 PM
107 SF 38½ *
108 BAL -3 UNDER
BAL D has given up at least 20pts in each of the last 4 games
ARI is the only common opponent in the past 4 weeks and was on the road for both teams.
SF won by 16 while BAL won by 3
Looking at other games as well, taking the points appears to be the right choice
Thursday night games usually favors the home team, but we've seen SD lose at home this year. I know
it's unusual to favor all the road teams, but they all are playing better D than there opponent (yes, even w/GB) so thats why I picked them on instinct and checking stats, watching games gives the edge to the road teams.
103 GB -6 *
104 DET 55½ OVER
DET on turkey day has lost since '04. GB has won in '07 & '09 and this version of GB is even better as well as DET, so OVER is favored, w/leaning toward GB
11/24 4:15 PM
105 MIA 44½ *
106 DAL -7 UNDER
DAL vs AFC East
wk1 @NYJ 24-27
wk6 @NE 16-20
wk10 vsBUF 44-7
MIA D vs DAL O is much more predictable than
DAL D vs MIA O but I'll give edge to MIA
WAS & BUF common opponents in last 3 weeks
11/24 8:20 PM
107 SF 38½ *
108 BAL -3 UNDER
BAL D has given up at least 20pts in each of the last 4 games
ARI is the only common opponent in the past 4 weeks and was on the road for both teams.
SF won by 16 while BAL won by 3
Looking at other games as well, taking the points appears to be the right choice
Thursday night games usually favors the home team, but we've seen SD lose at home this year. I know
it's unusual to favor all the road teams, but they all are playing better D than there opponent (yes, even w/GB) so thats why I picked them on instinct and checking stats, watching games gives the edge to the road teams.
Monday, November 21, 2011
2011 week 11 - results
GAME ATS/TOTAL
NYJ@DEN W/W
TEN@ATL P/W
BUF@MIA W/P
CIN@BAL P/W
JAC@CLE W/W
OAK@MIN W/W
CAR@DET W/W
TB@GB L/L TB plays up & GB plays down
DAL@WAS L/L unexpected effort from WAS
ARI@SF W/W
SEA@STL L/W this was tough to pick due to injs for each team, I could've changed my pick on Saturday when news of STL LT Saffold inj, but I just left this as is.
SD@CHI W/L costly win for CHI
PHI@NYG L/W upset of the week, I thought PHI was dead in the water...
KC@NE W/W
weekly results:
ATS/TOTAL
W-L-P/W-L-P
8-4-2/10-3-1
for the year:
ATS/TOTAL
84-71-5/83-74-3
overall a very good week, NFC East gave me trouble, looks like 'dogs play hard at this time of year.
I knew of the TB/GB history where TB has been winning and giving good effort for the past few years.
Check under nfl.com>stats>historical stats>team vs team.
CIN played better on the road than I thought they would. TEN @ATL has a deceptive score, TEN was a bit lucky (w/Hasselbeck inj and Locker subbing played well) and ATL played much better. CAR had a much better game on O than last week.
Teams that maybe dead .... KC, STL, BUF, ARI - JAC? CLE?
NYJ@DEN W/W
TEN@ATL P/W
BUF@MIA W/P
CIN@BAL P/W
JAC@CLE W/W
OAK@MIN W/W
CAR@DET W/W
TB@GB L/L TB plays up & GB plays down
DAL@WAS L/L unexpected effort from WAS
ARI@SF W/W
SEA@STL L/W this was tough to pick due to injs for each team, I could've changed my pick on Saturday when news of STL LT Saffold inj, but I just left this as is.
SD@CHI W/L costly win for CHI
PHI@NYG L/W upset of the week, I thought PHI was dead in the water...
KC@NE W/W
weekly results:
ATS/TOTAL
W-L-P/W-L-P
8-4-2/10-3-1
for the year:
ATS/TOTAL
84-71-5/83-74-3
overall a very good week, NFC East gave me trouble, looks like 'dogs play hard at this time of year.
I knew of the TB/GB history where TB has been winning and giving good effort for the past few years.
Check under nfl.com>stats>historical stats>team vs team.
CIN played better on the road than I thought they would. TEN @ATL has a deceptive score, TEN was a bit lucky (w/Hasselbeck inj and Locker subbing played well) and ATL played much better. CAR had a much better game on O than last week.
Teams that maybe dead .... KC, STL, BUF, ARI - JAC? CLE?
Friday, November 18, 2011
2011 week 11 - Sun-Mon - picks
11/20 4:15 PM
415 TEN 44 UNDER
416 ATL -6 *?
both teams are 5-4 and lose to winning teams (w/1 exception each), but beat losing teams, recent common opponent IND. Since both team are run oriented, I'll side w/Under the total.
11/20 1:00 PM
417 BUF 43 under?
418 MIA -2 **
BUF is trending in the opposite direction of MIA
BUF can't stop run
11/20 1:00 PM
419 CIN 40½ over?
420 BAL -7 **
2nd Division game for CIN in as many weeks and perhaps an even tougher defense. BAL will study what PIT did and take it to another level
11/20 1:00 PM
421 JAC -1 UNDER
422 CLE 35½ **
A cooler day, w/rain/wind and time for those sunshine state teams to lose in the cold
11/20 1:00 PM
423 OAK -1.5 *****
424 MIN 44 over?
should I take total more seriously?
11/20 1:00 PM
425 CAR 47½ over?
426 DET -7 *****
CAR QB Newton has 'hit the wall', thinkin' over w/DET exploding points @home
11/20 1:00 PM
427 TB 49½ under?
428 GB -14.5 ****
Another sunshine state team playing in the cold w/a chance of snow (temp in upper 30's).
11/20 1:00 PM
429 DAL -8 ***
430 WAS 41½ under?
Though WAS will be 'up' for this game, just not enough, just can't see them scoring enough points to stay within number
11/20 4:05 PM
431 ARI 41½ under
432 SF -9.5 ***
just exactly what will ARI do?
11/20 4:05 PM
433 SEA 39 UNDER
434 STL -2 *
STL on 1st of 4 games vs Division opponents
SEA RG & RT IR OFY, STL appears to be gelling on O
STL HC says '15 players out or limited this week'
so many inj's for both teams
11/20 4:15 PM
435 SD 45 under
436 CHI -4 ***
SD is beat up and trending in the opposite direction of CHI
11/20 8:25 PM
437 PHI 47 under
438 NYG -4 *
Is PHI a lost cause?
11/21 8:35 PM
439 KC 48 under
440 NE -15 *****
really tempted to take KC, due to DC Crennel who probably knows best how to slow/stop Brady, it's just that KC QB Palko 1st start is an unknown and w/o enough reps/seeing live action I'm on the doubters fence
415 TEN 44 UNDER
416 ATL -6 *?
both teams are 5-4 and lose to winning teams (w/1 exception each), but beat losing teams, recent common opponent IND. Since both team are run oriented, I'll side w/Under the total.
11/20 1:00 PM
417 BUF 43 under?
418 MIA -2 **
BUF is trending in the opposite direction of MIA
BUF can't stop run
11/20 1:00 PM
419 CIN 40½ over?
420 BAL -7 **
2nd Division game for CIN in as many weeks and perhaps an even tougher defense. BAL will study what PIT did and take it to another level
11/20 1:00 PM
421 JAC -1 UNDER
422 CLE 35½ **
A cooler day, w/rain/wind and time for those sunshine state teams to lose in the cold
11/20 1:00 PM
423 OAK -1.5 *****
424 MIN 44 over?
should I take total more seriously?
11/20 1:00 PM
425 CAR 47½ over?
426 DET -7 *****
CAR QB Newton has 'hit the wall', thinkin' over w/DET exploding points @home
11/20 1:00 PM
427 TB 49½ under?
428 GB -14.5 ****
Another sunshine state team playing in the cold w/a chance of snow (temp in upper 30's).
11/20 1:00 PM
429 DAL -8 ***
430 WAS 41½ under?
Though WAS will be 'up' for this game, just not enough, just can't see them scoring enough points to stay within number
11/20 4:05 PM
431 ARI 41½ under
432 SF -9.5 ***
just exactly what will ARI do?
11/20 4:05 PM
433 SEA 39 UNDER
434 STL -2 *
STL on 1st of 4 games vs Division opponents
SEA RG & RT IR OFY, STL appears to be gelling on O
STL HC says '15 players out or limited this week'
so many inj's for both teams
11/20 4:15 PM
435 SD 45 under
436 CHI -4 ***
SD is beat up and trending in the opposite direction of CHI
11/20 8:25 PM
437 PHI 47 under
438 NYG -4 *
Is PHI a lost cause?
11/21 8:35 PM
439 KC 48 under
440 NE -15 *****
really tempted to take KC, due to DC Crennel who probably knows best how to slow/stop Brady, it's just that KC QB Palko 1st start is an unknown and w/o enough reps/seeing live action I'm on the doubters fence
Monday, November 14, 2011
2011 week 11 Thursday night - pick
11/17 8:20 PM
307 NYJ -4.5 UNDER
308 DEN 41 **
short prep for both teams, DEN since Tebow has become starter is 3-1 (3-0 road, 0-1 home). Common opponents this year MIA & SD (back2back weeks) & OAK. It's tempting to take 'under' the total, both teams should emphasize running ball w/D's stopping run. If NYJ scores at least 24, DEN needs to score @least 17 for a push, 18+ for the over - this seems doubtful to me - and so it's 'under'.
on another train of thought ... NYJ has a big DL w/only one sub 300lb personnel (295lb). This should give DEN OL problems w/run O. (just not as easy pushing around KC DL). NYJ LB's are also pretty good at stopping run. IF NYJ can make DEN one dimensional by stopping running game, then NYJ should win easily. If DEN D could do same to NYJ O, then we should have an under game. I just don't expect to see that as NYJ is a better passing team and can run. ST edge also goes to NYJ.
DEN only real edge is rest (no travel) and altitude, but this could be enough. There are reports on 'net of NYJ personnel dislike for going to DEN on short week of 4 days (really 2 days practice, 1 day travel, then game day). If altitude really affects NYJ, it should be seen in Q2 & Q4, NYJ may tire at this point and DEN personnel could take advantage. Temp will start in the 50's dropping into 40's by end of game, slight wind, should be a crisp night w/high altitude dry air. NYJ is near sea-level so going up to 5200+ ft should mess w/NYJ D - they could tire, if DEN runO keeps the pedal to the metal. If McGahee plays for at least a half DEN should have a much better chance of winning.
DEN DE's could disrupt NYJ QB Sanchez, I just don't think Dawkins is quick enough and can be beaten over the top, but NYJ doesn't really have an effective speedster. This should be a ground/pound game for both teams. I just think it's easier to make DEN O one dimensional than it is to make NYJ O, thus edge to NYJ.
updated thoughts - watching last year's game in Oct mid-day sunny, warm, NYJ was a little lucky to win game. The diiference this year will be DEN runO vs NYJ D. Again we'll see NYJ O vs DEN D, this year I think DEN D will win due to personnel changes for NYJ skill players (w/o WR Cotchery, Edwards & QB/WR/PR/KR Smith) which are a downgrade except for Buress in redzone. DEN CB Bailey was inj at beginning of Q2, DEN D also has upgraded DL. This year I'm thinkin' NYJ QB Sanchez will make more errors and unless they stick to run game, DEN D will cause more TO's and ST will come thru (no missed/muffed FG attempts)
NYJ D will probably need to run blitz DEN runO to effectively contain DEN. Under the total is still the preference and I'm changing my pick to the 'dog +4.5 DEN
more updates:
here's an espn clip http://espn.go.com/video/clip?id=7237494 that takes the stand of 'Is the point spread to low?'
These pundits are all saying yes too low, but they're only discussing one match up of DEN O vs NYJ D. They should be looking at NYJ O vs DEN D as well as ST. NYJ was fortunate to win last year w/more TO's. Normally the team w/more TO's will lose the game. I'm guessing the same will occur again w/NYJ having more TO's and this time DEN gets the W
307 NYJ -4.5 UNDER
308 DEN 41 **
short prep for both teams, DEN since Tebow has become starter is 3-1 (3-0 road, 0-1 home). Common opponents this year MIA & SD (back2back weeks) & OAK. It's tempting to take 'under' the total, both teams should emphasize running ball w/D's stopping run. If NYJ scores at least 24, DEN needs to score @least 17 for a push, 18+ for the over - this seems doubtful to me - and so it's 'under'.
on another train of thought ... NYJ has a big DL w/only one sub 300lb personnel (295lb). This should give DEN OL problems w/run O. (just not as easy pushing around KC DL). NYJ LB's are also pretty good at stopping run. IF NYJ can make DEN one dimensional by stopping running game, then NYJ should win easily. If DEN D could do same to NYJ O, then we should have an under game. I just don't expect to see that as NYJ is a better passing team and can run. ST edge also goes to NYJ.
DEN only real edge is rest (no travel) and altitude, but this could be enough. There are reports on 'net of NYJ personnel dislike for going to DEN on short week of 4 days (really 2 days practice, 1 day travel, then game day). If altitude really affects NYJ, it should be seen in Q2 & Q4, NYJ may tire at this point and DEN personnel could take advantage. Temp will start in the 50's dropping into 40's by end of game, slight wind, should be a crisp night w/high altitude dry air. NYJ is near sea-level so going up to 5200+ ft should mess w/NYJ D - they could tire, if DEN runO keeps the pedal to the metal. If McGahee plays for at least a half DEN should have a much better chance of winning.
DEN DE's could disrupt NYJ QB Sanchez, I just don't think Dawkins is quick enough and can be beaten over the top, but NYJ doesn't really have an effective speedster. This should be a ground/pound game for both teams. I just think it's easier to make DEN O one dimensional than it is to make NYJ O, thus edge to NYJ.
updated thoughts - watching last year's game in Oct mid-day sunny, warm, NYJ was a little lucky to win game. The diiference this year will be DEN runO vs NYJ D. Again we'll see NYJ O vs DEN D, this year I think DEN D will win due to personnel changes for NYJ skill players (w/o WR Cotchery, Edwards & QB/WR/PR/KR Smith) which are a downgrade except for Buress in redzone. DEN CB Bailey was inj at beginning of Q2, DEN D also has upgraded DL. This year I'm thinkin' NYJ QB Sanchez will make more errors and unless they stick to run game, DEN D will cause more TO's and ST will come thru (no missed/muffed FG attempts)
NYJ D will probably need to run blitz DEN runO to effectively contain DEN. Under the total is still the preference and I'm changing my pick to the 'dog +4.5 DEN
more updates:
here's an espn clip http://espn.go.com/video/clip?id=7237494 that takes the stand of 'Is the point spread to low?'
These pundits are all saying yes too low, but they're only discussing one match up of DEN O vs NYJ D. They should be looking at NYJ O vs DEN D as well as ST. NYJ was fortunate to win last year w/more TO's. Normally the team w/more TO's will lose the game. I'm guessing the same will occur again w/NYJ having more TO's and this time DEN gets the W
2011 week 10 - results
GAME ATS/TOTAL
OAK@SD L/W OAK came together a game sooner than I thought
PIT@CIN W/W
DEN@KC W/W
JAC@IND L/W IND is THE WORST O
BUF@DAL L/W BUF smoke&mirrors a no-go @DAL
HOU@TB W/L TB is cooked
TEN@CAR L/L what happened w/CAR?
WAS@MIA W/W
NO@ATL L/W ATL HC ODD OT play calling smells of mano-y-mano, gave game to NO, playaction would have been so much better, When the D expects xyz and can defend xyz, show xyz, but
give them abc instead
DET@CHI L/W I think the wind affected DET, lol
STL@CLE W/W
ARI@PHI W/W
BAL@SEA L/W BAL odd game plan again after a big win, hmmm smells of a setup, but for who???
NYG@SF W/W
NE@NYJ L/L NYJ can't get over the hump
MIN@GB W/L just over the total..
weekly results 8-8/12-4
for the year:
ATS/TOTAL 76-67-3/73-71-2
ATL another instance of HC over thinking? to aggressive? what were you thinking? maybe he didn't want a tie? I along w/many others are confused as he didn't stick to his MO.
I should revise my mid-season standings w/NE #1 in AFC East, since NYJ "can't get over the hump" and maybe w/BAL loss, HOU should be given consideration as SB bound?
GiB 3-1 ATS/SU (PIT,HOU,NO win - IND lose)
CoB 1-3 ATS/SU (JAC win - CAR,DET,MIN lose)
the Harbaugh bros streak comes to an end as BAL lost & SF won
it's odd w/BAL as after each big win, they've lost their next game to 'inferior opponents' and I noticed they're not running the ball as much in their losses. smells of game planning gone awry or just being too smart for yourself
a very good weekend as I had 6 W/W's (wins ATS & total), 2 L/L's (CAR & NYJ disappoint) and the rest were split. I'm now back on the plus side for total(O/U) picks :-)
OAK@SD L/W OAK came together a game sooner than I thought
PIT@CIN W/W
DEN@KC W/W
JAC@IND L/W IND is THE WORST O
BUF@DAL L/W BUF smoke&mirrors a no-go @DAL
HOU@TB W/L TB is cooked
TEN@CAR L/L what happened w/CAR?
WAS@MIA W/W
NO@ATL L/W ATL HC ODD OT play calling smells of mano-y-mano, gave game to NO, playaction would have been so much better, When the D expects xyz and can defend xyz, show xyz, but
give them abc instead
DET@CHI L/W I think the wind affected DET, lol
STL@CLE W/W
ARI@PHI W/W
BAL@SEA L/W BAL odd game plan again after a big win, hmmm smells of a setup, but for who???
NYG@SF W/W
NE@NYJ L/L NYJ can't get over the hump
MIN@GB W/L just over the total..
weekly results 8-8/12-4
for the year:
ATS/TOTAL 76-67-3/73-71-2
ATL another instance of HC over thinking? to aggressive? what were you thinking? maybe he didn't want a tie? I along w/many others are confused as he didn't stick to his MO.
I should revise my mid-season standings w/NE #1 in AFC East, since NYJ "can't get over the hump" and maybe w/BAL loss, HOU should be given consideration as SB bound?
GiB 3-1 ATS/SU (PIT,HOU,NO win - IND lose)
CoB 1-3 ATS/SU (JAC win - CAR,DET,MIN lose)
the Harbaugh bros streak comes to an end as BAL lost & SF won
it's odd w/BAL as after each big win, they've lost their next game to 'inferior opponents' and I noticed they're not running the ball as much in their losses. smells of game planning gone awry or just being too smart for yourself
a very good weekend as I had 6 W/W's (wins ATS & total), 2 L/L's (CAR & NYJ disappoint) and the rest were split. I'm now back on the plus side for total(O/U) picks :-)
Friday, November 11, 2011
2011 mid-season - picture this....
I believe the main contenders for the Super Bowl at this point are GB and BAL. OK, mostly everyone will agree w/GB, but BAL?
Let's focus on the AFC, current playoff contenders are -
East - NYJ, NE, BUF
North - BAL, PIT
South - HOU
West - OAK
In the West I don't include DEN as I think in 3-4 weeks D's will pick up on DEN run option O and squelch it. SD is clearly on the downhill, especially w/personnel, this past Thursday night was just a continuation of OAK dominance from last year when they were swept by the raiders. KC is about to step into it's 2nd half of season which includes a stretch of NE, PIT, CHI, NYJ, GB which are sandwiched by division games of DEN/sandwich/OAK, DEN - tell be very lucky to end up 8-8 at best, so playoffs not likely this year.
Of the remaining teams, NE & PIT are on the downhill slope, stopping every now and then w/wins that you expects and losses, that have the questions rolling that large snowball even faster downhill.
BUF, HOU, & NYJ are climbing and need to continue to climb, w/HOU farther up the hill and NYJ farther ahead w/D and farther behind w/O
That leaves BAL and with their division sweep this year of PIT, they appear to have gotten 'over the hump'.
All teams have a rival that is better than they are and until they beat them, they will continue to be the lesser of the rivals. Why not NYJ? they've proven they can beat NE. This is true, but they aren't as complete a team as BAL and this can be seen w/special teams and w/the lack of 'explosive downfield plays'.
In the NFC, after GB the contenders are...
East - NYG, DAL
North - DET, CHI
South - NO, ATL
West - SF
NYG needs their DL/LB to stay healthy or they'll give up too many points even for a Manning to overcome
DAL is perhaps the most inconsistent and playing to the level of competition
DET/CHI give GB the rivalry it needs to stay ahead of the game, but this also exposes DET/CHI weakness' in the game this weekend CHI needs the win to gain the split for the series or else DET will have garnered the sweep and braggin' rights, but GB is the king of the hill and they must be knocked off before DET/CHI can even think of being SuperBowl bound
NO though great at home, have a tuff time on the road with teams that have a winning record
ATL appears to be a notch below NO and until they sweep NO will always be considered so.
SF is on the uphill and there are more hills to climb
Let's focus on the AFC, current playoff contenders are -
East - NYJ, NE, BUF
North - BAL, PIT
South - HOU
West - OAK
In the West I don't include DEN as I think in 3-4 weeks D's will pick up on DEN run option O and squelch it. SD is clearly on the downhill, especially w/personnel, this past Thursday night was just a continuation of OAK dominance from last year when they were swept by the raiders. KC is about to step into it's 2nd half of season which includes a stretch of NE, PIT, CHI, NYJ, GB which are sandwiched by division games of DEN/sandwich/OAK, DEN - tell be very lucky to end up 8-8 at best, so playoffs not likely this year.
Of the remaining teams, NE & PIT are on the downhill slope, stopping every now and then w/wins that you expects and losses, that have the questions rolling that large snowball even faster downhill.
BUF, HOU, & NYJ are climbing and need to continue to climb, w/HOU farther up the hill and NYJ farther ahead w/D and farther behind w/O
That leaves BAL and with their division sweep this year of PIT, they appear to have gotten 'over the hump'.
All teams have a rival that is better than they are and until they beat them, they will continue to be the lesser of the rivals. Why not NYJ? they've proven they can beat NE. This is true, but they aren't as complete a team as BAL and this can be seen w/special teams and w/the lack of 'explosive downfield plays'.
In the NFC, after GB the contenders are...
East - NYG, DAL
North - DET, CHI
South - NO, ATL
West - SF
NYG needs their DL/LB to stay healthy or they'll give up too many points even for a Manning to overcome
DAL is perhaps the most inconsistent and playing to the level of competition
DET/CHI give GB the rivalry it needs to stay ahead of the game, but this also exposes DET/CHI weakness' in the game this weekend CHI needs the win to gain the split for the series or else DET will have garnered the sweep and braggin' rights, but GB is the king of the hill and they must be knocked off before DET/CHI can even think of being SuperBowl bound
NO though great at home, have a tuff time on the road with teams that have a winning record
ATL appears to be a notch below NO and until they sweep NO will always be considered so.
SF is on the uphill and there are more hills to climb
2011 week 10 - Sun-Mon - picks
11/13 1:00 PM
217 PIT -3 *
218 CIN 41½ UNDER
PIT GiB, maybe on descent, but here's a way stop w/CIN
11/13 1:00 PM
219 DEN 41½ **
220 KC -3 UNDER
DEN read-option offense should give KC a little trouble
11/13 1:00 PM
221 JAC -3 under
222 IND 37½ ****
JAC CoB
IND GiB
best chance for IND to win until after bye week
11/13 1:00 PM
223 BUF 48 *
224 DAL -5.5 over
BUF 1st of 3 games on the road
DAL lost @NYJ 24-27 & @NE 16-20
taking pts, BUF may lose by 3 or 4 pts, but that would cover spread
11/13 1:00 PM
225 HOU -3 *
226 TB 45½ UNDER
HOU GiB
TB D can't stop runO, HC says "out-physicaled" last week by NO
11/13 1:00 PM
227 TEN 46 over
228 CAR -3 *
CAR CoB, really needs to win last home game for the next month
11/13 1:00 PM
229 WAS 37½ under
230 MIA -3.5 ***
11/13 1:00 PM
231 NO 50 under
232 ATL -1 ****
NO GiB
ATL 1st of 3 games @home
11/13 4:15 PM
233 DET 45½ *
234 CHI -3 over
DET CoB
11/13 1:00 PM
235 STL 37½ *****
236 CLE -2.5 UNDER
STL is really a money line play, CLE 2ndary/safeties are hurting. Couple it w/an ineffective O and this really looks like STL's 2nd win of the season
11/13 1:00 PM
237 ARI 46½ *?
238 PHI -14 under
ARI 1st of 3 games on the road, +14pts can't resist
11/13 4:05 PM
239 BAL -7 **
240 SEA 41 under
11/13 4:15 PM
241 NYG 42½ over
242 SF -3.5 **
11/13 8:30 PM
243 NE 47½ UNDER
244 NYJ -1.5 ****
11/14 8:35 PM
245 MIN 51 under?
246 GB -13.5 **
MIN CoB, +13.5 tempting, except rookie QB vs Dom Capers D on MNF
Interesting stat -
AFC South vs NFC South ~ 0-fer SU/ATS
HOU 0-1 (33-40 @NO)
TEN begins 5 game stretch vs NFC South
JAC 0-2 (10-16 @CAR, 10-23 vsNO)
IND 0-3 (17-24 @TB, 7-62 @NO, 7-31 vs ATL)
217 PIT -3 *
218 CIN 41½ UNDER
PIT GiB, maybe on descent, but here's a way stop w/CIN
11/13 1:00 PM
219 DEN 41½ **
220 KC -3 UNDER
DEN read-option offense should give KC a little trouble
11/13 1:00 PM
221 JAC -3 under
222 IND 37½ ****
JAC CoB
IND GiB
best chance for IND to win until after bye week
11/13 1:00 PM
223 BUF 48 *
224 DAL -5.5 over
BUF 1st of 3 games on the road
DAL lost @NYJ 24-27 & @NE 16-20
taking pts, BUF may lose by 3 or 4 pts, but that would cover spread
11/13 1:00 PM
225 HOU -3 *
226 TB 45½ UNDER
HOU GiB
TB D can't stop runO, HC says "out-physicaled" last week by NO
11/13 1:00 PM
227 TEN 46 over
228 CAR -3 *
CAR CoB, really needs to win last home game for the next month
11/13 1:00 PM
229 WAS 37½ under
230 MIA -3.5 ***
11/13 1:00 PM
231 NO 50 under
232 ATL -1 ****
NO GiB
ATL 1st of 3 games @home
11/13 4:15 PM
233 DET 45½ *
234 CHI -3 over
DET CoB
11/13 1:00 PM
235 STL 37½ *****
236 CLE -2.5 UNDER
STL is really a money line play, CLE 2ndary/safeties are hurting. Couple it w/an ineffective O and this really looks like STL's 2nd win of the season
11/13 1:00 PM
237 ARI 46½ *?
238 PHI -14 under
ARI 1st of 3 games on the road, +14pts can't resist
11/13 4:05 PM
239 BAL -7 **
240 SEA 41 under
11/13 4:15 PM
241 NYG 42½ over
242 SF -3.5 **
11/13 8:30 PM
243 NE 47½ UNDER
244 NYJ -1.5 ****
11/14 8:35 PM
245 MIN 51 under?
246 GB -13.5 **
MIN CoB, +13.5 tempting, except rookie QB vs Dom Capers D on MNF
Interesting stat -
AFC South vs NFC South ~ 0-fer SU/ATS
HOU 0-1 (33-40 @NO)
TEN begins 5 game stretch vs NFC South
JAC 0-2 (10-16 @CAR, 10-23 vsNO)
IND 0-3 (17-24 @TB, 7-62 @NO, 7-31 vs ATL)
Wednesday, November 09, 2011
2011 WEEK 10 THURSDAY NIGHT - PICKS
11/10 8:20 PM
107 OAK 48 under
108 SD -7 *
It's hard to take OAK. this will be the third game since QB Campbell inj, O has improved, but D really has gotten worse.
Can't see OAK getting win, so SD wins at home and hopefully covers. Under the total is probably the better bet. I'll hazard a guess w/OAK having more TO's which will lead to SD scores and thus the cover.
107 OAK 48 under
108 SD -7 *
It's hard to take OAK. this will be the third game since QB Campbell inj, O has improved, but D really has gotten worse.
Can't see OAK getting win, so SD wins at home and hopefully covers. Under the total is probably the better bet. I'll hazard a guess w/OAK having more TO's which will lead to SD scores and thus the cover.
Tuesday, November 08, 2011
2011 week 09 - results
GAME ATS/TOTAL
ATL@IND W/L almost as expected is IND quitting?
TB@NO L/W oh well, NO @home, ho-hum
CLE@HOU W/L close ~ just over the total
NYJ@BUF W/L not as much scoring as thought
MIA@KC W/L again, not as much scoring as thought
SF@WAS W/W
SEA@DAL L/W close, SEA scores more
DEN@OAK L/L surprise/upset of the week
CIN@TEN L/L 2H CIN rises, TEN fails w/17-7 lead @H
STL@ARI L/W STL misses FG @end of game, ARI OT prTD
NYG@NE W/L just like SB in '08
GB@SD W/W
BAL@PIT L/W BAL got the sweep
CHI@PHI L/W PHI just not ready for prime time?
weekly results 7-7/7-7
for the year:
ATS/TOTAL 68-59-3/61-67-2
Harbaugh Bros winning ways continue w/BAL & SF winning.
BAL appears to be over the hump and should be considered a serious contender for the SuperBowl this year.
DEN beating OAK @home - I was really surprised, DEN runO scheme w/just enough passing and OAK TO's were the things that stood out
TEN & STL had their chances to win their games, but lost.
Teams CoB (Coming off bye week) 4-2 SU/ATS
Surprisingly team CoB trend continued. Teams w/winning CoB records won and teams w/losing CoB records lost. Only NYJ tilted toward winning record.
This week was the opposite from last week for me w/morning games doing well on the side and afternoon games coming out w/a losing record and vice versa for totals.
one last comment, I was really 'under the weather' from about Tues of last week and stil recovering from the flu? but I did ok, even w/fuzzy thinking and not checking such things as CHI vs PHI record last 5 years (which now stands in favor of CHI 4-1 SU).
ATL@IND W/L almost as expected is IND quitting?
TB@NO L/W oh well, NO @home, ho-hum
CLE@HOU W/L close ~ just over the total
NYJ@BUF W/L not as much scoring as thought
MIA@KC W/L again, not as much scoring as thought
SF@WAS W/W
SEA@DAL L/W close, SEA scores more
DEN@OAK L/L surprise/upset of the week
CIN@TEN L/L 2H CIN rises, TEN fails w/17-7 lead @H
STL@ARI L/W STL misses FG @end of game, ARI OT prTD
NYG@NE W/L just like SB in '08
GB@SD W/W
BAL@PIT L/W BAL got the sweep
CHI@PHI L/W PHI just not ready for prime time?
weekly results 7-7/7-7
for the year:
ATS/TOTAL 68-59-3/61-67-2
Harbaugh Bros winning ways continue w/BAL & SF winning.
BAL appears to be over the hump and should be considered a serious contender for the SuperBowl this year.
DEN beating OAK @home - I was really surprised, DEN runO scheme w/just enough passing and OAK TO's were the things that stood out
TEN & STL had their chances to win their games, but lost.
Teams CoB (Coming off bye week) 4-2 SU/ATS
Surprisingly team CoB trend continued. Teams w/winning CoB records won and teams w/losing CoB records lost. Only NYJ tilted toward winning record.
This week was the opposite from last week for me w/morning games doing well on the side and afternoon games coming out w/a losing record and vice versa for totals.
one last comment, I was really 'under the weather' from about Tues of last week and stil recovering from the flu? but I did ok, even w/fuzzy thinking and not checking such things as CHI vs PHI record last 5 years (which now stands in favor of CHI 4-1 SU).
Thursday, November 03, 2011
2011 week 09 Sun-Mon - picks
11/06 1:00 PM
405 ATL -7 *
406 IND 45 over
ATL CoB 12-10, ATL vs IND 1-13 all time record
11/06 1:00 PM
407 TB 51 *
408 NO -8 under
TB CoB 10-12
11/06 1:00 PM
409 CLE 41 under
410 HOU -11 ****
11/06 1:00 PM
411 NYJ 44 *
412 BUF -1.5 over
NYJ CoB 11-11
11/06 1:00 PM
413 MIA 39½ *
414 KC -5.5 over
11/06 1:00 PM
415 SF -3.5 *****
416 WAS 37½ UNDER
11/06 1:00 PM
417 SEA 43 under
418 DAL -11.5 ***
11/06 4:05 PM
419 DEN 43 under
420 OAK -8 **
OAK CoB 9-13
11/06 4:05 PM
421 CIN 40½ under
422 TEN -3 *
11/06 4:15 PM
423 STL 44½ ***
424 ARI -3.5 *UNDER*
11/06 4:15 PM
425 NYG 52½ *
426 NE -8.5 over?
11/06 4:15 PM
427 GB -6 ***
428 SD 52 over
GB CoB 13-9
11/06 8:25 PM
429 BAL 41½ over
430 PIT -3 *
11/07 8:35 PM
431 CHI 47½ over
432 PHI -8 *
CHI CoB 14-8
405 ATL -7 *
406 IND 45 over
ATL CoB 12-10, ATL vs IND 1-13 all time record
11/06 1:00 PM
407 TB 51 *
408 NO -8 under
TB CoB 10-12
11/06 1:00 PM
409 CLE 41 under
410 HOU -11 ****
11/06 1:00 PM
411 NYJ 44 *
412 BUF -1.5 over
NYJ CoB 11-11
11/06 1:00 PM
413 MIA 39½ *
414 KC -5.5 over
11/06 1:00 PM
415 SF -3.5 *****
416 WAS 37½ UNDER
11/06 1:00 PM
417 SEA 43 under
418 DAL -11.5 ***
11/06 4:05 PM
419 DEN 43 under
420 OAK -8 **
OAK CoB 9-13
11/06 4:05 PM
421 CIN 40½ under
422 TEN -3 *
11/06 4:15 PM
423 STL 44½ ***
424 ARI -3.5 *UNDER*
11/06 4:15 PM
425 NYG 52½ *
426 NE -8.5 over?
11/06 4:15 PM
427 GB -6 ***
428 SD 52 over
GB CoB 13-9
11/06 8:25 PM
429 BAL 41½ over
430 PIT -3 *
11/07 8:35 PM
431 CHI 47½ over
432 PHI -8 *
CHI CoB 14-8
Monday, October 31, 2011
2011 week 08 - results
GAME ATS/TOTAL
IND@TEN L/W and IND woes continue, I know better, so why did I take pts?
JAC@HOU W/W
MIN@CAR L/L MIN road win, impressive w/2nd start for QB
NO@STL L/W Huge upset - the improbable win/loss
ARI@BAL L/L ARI near upset leads into Q4, BAL O woes change in 2H
MIA@NYG L/W MIA another Q4 lost to opponent
=====AM=above===PM=below==================================
WAS@BUF W/L should've taken under
DET@DEN W/L should've taken over
NE@PIT L/L NE cutting corners, guess it's for the future
CLE@SF W/W
CIN@SEA W/L neither D played up to par
DAL@PHI L/L must've been not think'n or too much?
SD@KC W/L
weekly results 6-7/5-8
for the year:
ATS/TOTAL 61-52-3/54-60-2
Morning games only TEN & HOU as a fav wins all other games the dogs are barking w/upsets for MIN & STL. Only ARI @BAL game goes over total as well, all others under
Afternoon games I do the exact opposite picking sides well, but not totals, sigh...
Teams CoB (coming off bye)
5-1 SU(NYG, BUF, SF, CIN & PHI won, NE lost) / 4-2 ATS (NYG did not cover)
Teams GiB (going into bye)
2-2 SU/ATS (MIN & DET won / JAC & CAR lost)
Punting game turns up big in several games;
TEN blocked prTD crushed IND
ARI CB Peterson - lengthened lead w/prTD
STL P Jones - big leg, gave field position edge(x7) to STL
CIN WR Tate - sealed the win w/prTD
oddities?
=========
** BAL & SF (Harbaugh Bros) win/lose together **
SU if BAL wins SF wins, if BAL loses, SF loses (except when on bye)
ATS BAL 4-3, SF 6-0-1
** DAL opponents the following week win SU & ATS **
only opponent where this has not occurred was w/NE who had their bye week
(note NE lost coming off bye this weekend to PIT)
ATS/SU 5-0
** NYJ & SEA opponents the following week lose ATS **
not counting next week which are byes
ATS 0-5-1
** NYG opponents the following week lose ATS **
not counting next week which are byes
ATS 0-4
IND@TEN L/W and IND woes continue, I know better, so why did I take pts?
JAC@HOU W/W
MIN@CAR L/L MIN road win, impressive w/2nd start for QB
NO@STL L/W Huge upset - the improbable win/loss
ARI@BAL L/L ARI near upset leads into Q4, BAL O woes change in 2H
MIA@NYG L/W MIA another Q4 lost to opponent
=====AM=above===PM=below==================================
WAS@BUF W/L should've taken under
DET@DEN W/L should've taken over
NE@PIT L/L NE cutting corners, guess it's for the future
CLE@SF W/W
CIN@SEA W/L neither D played up to par
DAL@PHI L/L must've been not think'n or too much?
SD@KC W/L
weekly results 6-7/5-8
for the year:
ATS/TOTAL 61-52-3/54-60-2
Morning games only TEN & HOU as a fav wins all other games the dogs are barking w/upsets for MIN & STL. Only ARI @BAL game goes over total as well, all others under
Afternoon games I do the exact opposite picking sides well, but not totals, sigh...
Teams CoB (coming off bye)
5-1 SU(NYG, BUF, SF, CIN & PHI won, NE lost) / 4-2 ATS (NYG did not cover)
Teams GiB (going into bye)
2-2 SU/ATS (MIN & DET won / JAC & CAR lost)
Punting game turns up big in several games;
TEN blocked prTD crushed IND
ARI CB Peterson - lengthened lead w/prTD
STL P Jones - big leg, gave field position edge(x7) to STL
CIN WR Tate - sealed the win w/prTD
oddities?
=========
** BAL & SF (Harbaugh Bros) win/lose together **
SU if BAL wins SF wins, if BAL loses, SF loses (except when on bye)
ATS BAL 4-3, SF 6-0-1
** DAL opponents the following week win SU & ATS **
only opponent where this has not occurred was w/NE who had their bye week
(note NE lost coming off bye this weekend to PIT)
ATS/SU 5-0
** NYJ & SEA opponents the following week lose ATS **
not counting next week which are byes
ATS 0-5-1
** NYG opponents the following week lose ATS **
not counting next week which are byes
ATS 0-4
Friday, October 28, 2011
2011 week 08 Sun-Mon - picks
10/30 1:00 PM
207 IND 43½ *
208 TEN -8.5 UNDER
hard to pick, both teams coming off of bad games, so I'm think'n D's will step up...
10/30 1:00 PM
209 JAC 40½ Under
210 HOU -9.5 *
JAC on the road, good @home but not on the road. HOU D is playing very well, though safety will be out
10/30 1:00 PM
211 MIN 46½ OVER
212 CAR -3.5 *
young QB's CAR QB has the edge of 7 more games, both D's need upgrades
10/30 1:00 PM
213 NO -13.5 **
214 STL 47½ under
NO a 2nd dominating performance? Yes it appears so w/STL QB & LT out as well as a boatful of injuries over the past couple of months
10/30 1:00 PM
215 ARI 43 under
216 BAL -12.5 *
BAL embarassed last week, the big bounce back, w/ARI brought to slaughter
10/30 1:00 PM
217 MIA 42½ under
218 NYG -9.5 *****
NYG finally healthy and heading upwards, MIA is on the spiral down
10/30 4:05 PM
219 WAS 46 over
220 BUF -5.5 *
pts maybe too large for BUF, but WAS QB Beck is in 2nd start and last week didn't look really good vs CAR D which is weak. Besides WAS injuries are starting to mount
10/30 4:05 PM
221 DET -3 *
222 DEN 41½ UNDER
DEN looked really lucky last week, I don't think it happens twice in a row
10/30 4:15 PM
223 NE -3 *
224 PIT 52 over
Everyone know NE is doing remarkably well @PIT, they seem to be the only team that will ignore runnin' and pass all over PIT D
10/30 4:15 PM
225 CLE 38½ under
226 SF -8.5 **
Big number for SF to cover, but D is getting recognition for stoutness and CLE has a pretty good D as well, it's their O that sputters.
10/30 4:15 PM
227 CIN -3 **
228 SEA 37½ UNDER
if TJ started for SEA I would take SEA, but w/o QB TJ, backup QB Whitehurst is really having problems. CIN got SEA in the right spot. Under is the better bet w/both O's needing help and both D's playing well
10/30 8:30 PM
229 DAL 50 *
230 PHI -3 over
Hopefully this game will be full of fireworks, DAL D has a big edge and PHI D has not lived up to promise and I don't expect to do so for awhile. CoB PHI is 18-4, a remarkable record, but I'm bucking the trend.
10/31 8:35 PM
231 SD -3.5 Over
232 KC 44 **
SD may have been exposed vs NYJ last week in 2nd Half and KC needs to reclaim last years magic
207 IND 43½ *
208 TEN -8.5 UNDER
hard to pick, both teams coming off of bad games, so I'm think'n D's will step up...
10/30 1:00 PM
209 JAC 40½ Under
210 HOU -9.5 *
JAC on the road, good @home but not on the road. HOU D is playing very well, though safety will be out
10/30 1:00 PM
211 MIN 46½ OVER
212 CAR -3.5 *
young QB's CAR QB has the edge of 7 more games, both D's need upgrades
10/30 1:00 PM
213 NO -13.5 **
214 STL 47½ under
NO a 2nd dominating performance? Yes it appears so w/STL QB & LT out as well as a boatful of injuries over the past couple of months
10/30 1:00 PM
215 ARI 43 under
216 BAL -12.5 *
BAL embarassed last week, the big bounce back, w/ARI brought to slaughter
10/30 1:00 PM
217 MIA 42½ under
218 NYG -9.5 *****
NYG finally healthy and heading upwards, MIA is on the spiral down
10/30 4:05 PM
219 WAS 46 over
220 BUF -5.5 *
pts maybe too large for BUF, but WAS QB Beck is in 2nd start and last week didn't look really good vs CAR D which is weak. Besides WAS injuries are starting to mount
10/30 4:05 PM
221 DET -3 *
222 DEN 41½ UNDER
DEN looked really lucky last week, I don't think it happens twice in a row
10/30 4:15 PM
223 NE -3 *
224 PIT 52 over
Everyone know NE is doing remarkably well @PIT, they seem to be the only team that will ignore runnin' and pass all over PIT D
10/30 4:15 PM
225 CLE 38½ under
226 SF -8.5 **
Big number for SF to cover, but D is getting recognition for stoutness and CLE has a pretty good D as well, it's their O that sputters.
10/30 4:15 PM
227 CIN -3 **
228 SEA 37½ UNDER
if TJ started for SEA I would take SEA, but w/o QB TJ, backup QB Whitehurst is really having problems. CIN got SEA in the right spot. Under is the better bet w/both O's needing help and both D's playing well
10/30 8:30 PM
229 DAL 50 *
230 PHI -3 over
Hopefully this game will be full of fireworks, DAL D has a big edge and PHI D has not lived up to promise and I don't expect to do so for awhile. CoB PHI is 18-4, a remarkable record, but I'm bucking the trend.
10/31 8:35 PM
231 SD -3.5 Over
232 KC 44 **
SD may have been exposed vs NYJ last week in 2nd Half and KC needs to reclaim last years magic
Tuesday, October 25, 2011
2011 week 07 - results
GAME ATS/TOTAL
CHI@TB L/W guess CHI doesn't need as much rest as TB
WAS@CAR L/L
SD@NYJ W/L NYJ 2ndHalf comeback
SEA@CLE L/L
HOU@TEN W/L HOU is now in control of AFC South
DEN@MIA L/W
ATL@DET L/W ATL on the upswing, DET on the downswing
KC@OAK W/L
PIT@ARI L/W
STL@DAL W/W
GB@MIN L/L MIN best green QB this weekend
IND@NO W/L
BAL@JAC L/W BAL O, O woe is me
weekly 5-8/6-7
results
for the year:
ATS/TOTAL
55-45-3/49-52-2
teams GiB (going into bye) 3-2 SU, 2-3 ATS
teams CoB (Coming off bye) 2-4 SU/ATS
green QB's 0-fer, WAS,SEA,STL,OAK,MIN (should MIA be included?)
except for DEN
BAL lost, biggest surprise
CHI@TB L/W guess CHI doesn't need as much rest as TB
WAS@CAR L/L
SD@NYJ W/L NYJ 2ndHalf comeback
SEA@CLE L/L
HOU@TEN W/L HOU is now in control of AFC South
DEN@MIA L/W
ATL@DET L/W ATL on the upswing, DET on the downswing
KC@OAK W/L
PIT@ARI L/W
STL@DAL W/W
GB@MIN L/L MIN best green QB this weekend
IND@NO W/L
BAL@JAC L/W BAL O, O woe is me
weekly 5-8/6-7
results
for the year:
ATS/TOTAL
55-45-3/49-52-2
teams GiB (going into bye) 3-2 SU, 2-3 ATS
teams CoB (Coming off bye) 2-4 SU/ATS
green QB's 0-fer, WAS,SEA,STL,OAK,MIN (should MIA be included?)
except for DEN
BAL lost, biggest surprise
Friday, October 21, 2011
2011 week 07 Sun-Mon - picks
10/23 1:00 PM
401 CHI -1 under
402 TB 44 *****
@Wembley Stadium, England
CHI s/b max protect, D is suspect w/injs (DE Peppers)
TB w/o DT McCoy, but return of TJack really strengthen 2ndary
Hard to pick CHI w/Jekyl & Hyde O, TB tends to start slow
which means an under for half, but I suspect O's heat up after half
noticed...TB arrived on Monday, CHI set to leave on Thursday
only 56 hrs 'til kickoff for CHI
w/recent news, change of thought - TB will win easily, favorite/under combo
10/23 1:00 PM
403 WAS 43½ **
404 CAR -2.5 UNDER
WAS new QB Beck, 2ndary should get a couple of ints
CAR w/o RT Otah, should have problems vs WAS DL
10/23 1:00 PM
405 SD -2 UNDER
406 NYJ 44 *
SD w/o TE Gates is not an effective passO, runO is ok
I don't think SD will take chances like MIA last week
NYJ where's runO & passO? D is still top half
10/23 1:00 PM
407 SEA 41 *
408 CLE -3 over
SEA CoB, CLE w/o RB, OL should have problems vs SEA DL
10/23 1:00 PM
409 HOU 44½ *
410 TEN -3 under?
HOU w/o WR#1 Johnson & LB M Williams
TEN w/o WR#1 Britt & SS Hope, CoB runnin' more? spent bye fixin' runO
10/23 1:00 PM
411 DEN 43 UNDER
412 MIA -2 *
DEN CoB, new QB Tebow, traded away best WR
MIA QB Moore 2nd start, D is better than O
10/23 1:00 PM
413 ATL 47½ under?
414 DET -3.5 *
ATL s/b playing runO, ball control
DET D can be gashed w/traps, starter RB out
I don't have great faith in this pick, I could easily flip it
10/23 4:05 PM
415 KC 42 *
416 OAK -4 over
OAK new QB Palmer, suspect timing w/WR & vs 2ndary s/b off
10/23 4:05 PM
417 PIT -3.5 OVER
418 ARI 42½ *
PIT lots of inj's
ARI w/o FS Rhodes, CoB
I suspect PIT may still win, but the half point could be the winner ATS
10/23 4:15 PM
419 STL 43½ UNDER
420 DAL -12 ****
10/23 4:15 PM
421 GB -9 *
422 MIN 47 UNDER
10/23 8:30 PM
423 IND 48½ UNDER
424 NO -14 *
If NO was on the road, I would take IND
10/24 8:35 PM
425 BAL -7.5 ***
426 JAC 39 UNDER
401 CHI -1 under
402 TB 44 *****
@Wembley Stadium, England
CHI s/b max protect, D is suspect w/injs (DE Peppers)
TB w/o DT McCoy, but return of TJack really strengthen 2ndary
Hard to pick CHI w/Jekyl & Hyde O, TB tends to start slow
which means an under for half, but I suspect O's heat up after half
noticed...TB arrived on Monday, CHI set to leave on Thursday
only 56 hrs 'til kickoff for CHI
w/recent news, change of thought - TB will win easily, favorite/under combo
10/23 1:00 PM
403 WAS 43½ **
404 CAR -2.5 UNDER
WAS new QB Beck, 2ndary should get a couple of ints
CAR w/o RT Otah, should have problems vs WAS DL
10/23 1:00 PM
405 SD -2 UNDER
406 NYJ 44 *
SD w/o TE Gates is not an effective passO, runO is ok
I don't think SD will take chances like MIA last week
NYJ where's runO & passO? D is still top half
10/23 1:00 PM
407 SEA 41 *
408 CLE -3 over
SEA CoB, CLE w/o RB, OL should have problems vs SEA DL
10/23 1:00 PM
409 HOU 44½ *
410 TEN -3 under?
HOU w/o WR#1 Johnson & LB M Williams
TEN w/o WR#1 Britt & SS Hope, CoB runnin' more? spent bye fixin' runO
10/23 1:00 PM
411 DEN 43 UNDER
412 MIA -2 *
DEN CoB, new QB Tebow, traded away best WR
MIA QB Moore 2nd start, D is better than O
10/23 1:00 PM
413 ATL 47½ under?
414 DET -3.5 *
ATL s/b playing runO, ball control
DET D can be gashed w/traps, starter RB out
I don't have great faith in this pick, I could easily flip it
10/23 4:05 PM
415 KC 42 *
416 OAK -4 over
OAK new QB Palmer, suspect timing w/WR & vs 2ndary s/b off
10/23 4:05 PM
417 PIT -3.5 OVER
418 ARI 42½ *
PIT lots of inj's
ARI w/o FS Rhodes, CoB
I suspect PIT may still win, but the half point could be the winner ATS
10/23 4:15 PM
419 STL 43½ UNDER
420 DAL -12 ****
10/23 4:15 PM
421 GB -9 *
422 MIN 47 UNDER
10/23 8:30 PM
423 IND 48½ UNDER
424 NO -14 *
If NO was on the road, I would take IND
10/24 8:35 PM
425 BAL -7.5 ***
426 JAC 39 UNDER
Thursday, October 20, 2011
2011 trade - break or make raiders?
Instead of myself breaking it down on CIN trade of QB Palmer for OAK future picks this podcast w/Bill Simmons (ESPN) and Michael Lombardi (former Raider personnel) http://espn.go.com/espnradio/play?id=7119791
will be a point of view, that the majority of pundits seem to be taking as a great win for CIN and a great loss for OAK.
I'm thinkin' along another line, that if OAK goes to the playoffs, this will be a win for OAK this season. If OAK goes to the SuperBowl in the next 2-3 years w/QB Carson Palmer then all the pundits will need to retract everything they've said about how to manage a team. There's always a constant tug -o- war between managers and personnel people. I'll side w/personnel as I believe if you don't take the chance and Palmer still has a lot of football left IMO, then you're always playing it safe. Teams that play safe too much, can be good, but they'll never be great.
OAK has some real positives. They are really a run first team, in a pass first league. Other teams are showing problems handling OAK runO. If every team is really geared to stop the pass and this really shows w/the number of starting lineups for defenses in the league w/nickel packages appearing most often this year. Advantage OAK.
The real question of "Is QB Palmer worth the future picks?" will be answered partly this season and in whole in the next few years.
We'll see, we'll see....
will be a point of view, that the majority of pundits seem to be taking as a great win for CIN and a great loss for OAK.
I'm thinkin' along another line, that if OAK goes to the playoffs, this will be a win for OAK this season. If OAK goes to the SuperBowl in the next 2-3 years w/QB Carson Palmer then all the pundits will need to retract everything they've said about how to manage a team. There's always a constant tug -o- war between managers and personnel people. I'll side w/personnel as I believe if you don't take the chance and Palmer still has a lot of football left IMO, then you're always playing it safe. Teams that play safe too much, can be good, but they'll never be great.
OAK has some real positives. They are really a run first team, in a pass first league. Other teams are showing problems handling OAK runO. If every team is really geared to stop the pass and this really shows w/the number of starting lineups for defenses in the league w/nickel packages appearing most often this year. Advantage OAK.
The real question of "Is QB Palmer worth the future picks?" will be answered partly this season and in whole in the next few years.
We'll see, we'll see....
Tuesday, October 18, 2011
2011 week 06 - results
GAME ATS/TOTAL
STL@GB W/W
JAC@PIT W/L
PHI@WAS L/W
SF@DET W/W -DET O woes caught up w/them
CAR@ATL L/L
IND@CIN L/W -IND D w/CBs need fix'ng
BUF@NYG W/L
HOU@BAL W/W
CLE@OAK W/W
DAL@NE W/L
NO@TB L/W -upset of the week, TB reinstated Tanard Jackson played well
MIN@CHI W/L -CHI seems to be jekyl & hyde
MIA@NYJ L/L -if you can't score, you can't win - MIA
weekly 8-5/7-6
results
for the year:
ATS/TOTAL
50-37-3/43-45-2
Totals O/U 3-10 reversing the over trend? temporary?
teams coming off bye 1-3 SU/ATS (BAL / STL,WAS,MIA)
teams going into bye 4-1 SU, 3-2 ATS
NE & NYG win SU, lose ATS
BUF lost SU, win ATS
Noticed that as BAL wins, so does SF
and as BAL loses, SF lost as well - the tie in is w/HC's - the Harbaugh Bros
NFC East is still up for grabs
GB @DET on Thanksgiving is for the NFC North
TB is in the drivers seat for the NFC South
SF can just split NFC West games and take division
NE & BAL look well on their way to taking their division
As long as OAK gets past KC next week,
SD & OAK on Veterans Day will be for AFC West
The AFC South is a race between HOU & TEN,
HOU & TEN have two division games in a row
TEN has the advantage of a bye week to prep for games
and HOU is w/o Mario Williams.
I still like HOU, TEN lacks a true #1WR and their runO
has sputtered this year. TEN D is playing well, I don't
believe TEN O will be able to change/improve much more, advantage HOU.
STL@GB W/W
JAC@PIT W/L
PHI@WAS L/W
SF@DET W/W -DET O woes caught up w/them
CAR@ATL L/L
IND@CIN L/W -IND D w/CBs need fix'ng
BUF@NYG W/L
HOU@BAL W/W
CLE@OAK W/W
DAL@NE W/L
NO@TB L/W -upset of the week, TB reinstated Tanard Jackson played well
MIN@CHI W/L -CHI seems to be jekyl & hyde
MIA@NYJ L/L -if you can't score, you can't win - MIA
weekly 8-5/7-6
results
for the year:
ATS/TOTAL
50-37-3/43-45-2
Totals O/U 3-10 reversing the over trend? temporary?
teams coming off bye 1-3 SU/ATS (BAL / STL,WAS,MIA)
teams going into bye 4-1 SU, 3-2 ATS
NE & NYG win SU, lose ATS
BUF lost SU, win ATS
Noticed that as BAL wins, so does SF
and as BAL loses, SF lost as well - the tie in is w/HC's - the Harbaugh Bros
NFC East is still up for grabs
GB @DET on Thanksgiving is for the NFC North
TB is in the drivers seat for the NFC South
SF can just split NFC West games and take division
NE & BAL look well on their way to taking their division
As long as OAK gets past KC next week,
SD & OAK on Veterans Day will be for AFC West
The AFC South is a race between HOU & TEN,
HOU & TEN have two division games in a row
TEN has the advantage of a bye week to prep for games
and HOU is w/o Mario Williams.
I still like HOU, TEN lacks a true #1WR and their runO
has sputtered this year. TEN D is playing well, I don't
believe TEN O will be able to change/improve much more, advantage HOU.
Sunday, October 16, 2011
2011 week 06 Sun-Mon - picks
10/16 1:00 PM
201 STL 47½ Under
202 GB -14.5 ***
10/16 1:00 PM
203 JAC 40½ *
204 PIT -12.5 over
10/16 1:00 PM
205 PHI -3 Under
206 WAS 47 *
10/16 1:00 PM
207 SF 46½ *
208 DET -4 under
think'n it'll be under the half total, so under as well for whole game.... just think'n...
10/16 1:00 PM
209 CAR 50 *
210 ATL -3.5 over
10/16 1:00 PM
211 IND 40½ **
212 CIN -6.5 OVER
10/16 1:00 PM
213 BUF 50½ *
214 NYG -3.5 under
10/16 4:05 PM
215 HOU 45 under
216 BAL -7 **
10/16 4:05 PM
217 CLE 44½ under
218 OAK -6.5 *****
10/16 4:15 PM
219 DAL 55½ **
220 NE -6.5 OVER
10/16 4:15 PM
221 NO -6.5 *
222 TB 49½ under
10/16 8:30 PM
223 MIN 41½ under
224 CHI -2 *
10/17 8:35 PM
225 MIA 42½ *
226 NYJ -6.5 over
201 STL 47½ Under
202 GB -14.5 ***
10/16 1:00 PM
203 JAC 40½ *
204 PIT -12.5 over
10/16 1:00 PM
205 PHI -3 Under
206 WAS 47 *
10/16 1:00 PM
207 SF 46½ *
208 DET -4 under
think'n it'll be under the half total, so under as well for whole game.... just think'n...
10/16 1:00 PM
209 CAR 50 *
210 ATL -3.5 over
10/16 1:00 PM
211 IND 40½ **
212 CIN -6.5 OVER
10/16 1:00 PM
213 BUF 50½ *
214 NYG -3.5 under
10/16 4:05 PM
215 HOU 45 under
216 BAL -7 **
10/16 4:05 PM
217 CLE 44½ under
218 OAK -6.5 *****
10/16 4:15 PM
219 DAL 55½ **
220 NE -6.5 OVER
10/16 4:15 PM
221 NO -6.5 *
222 TB 49½ under
10/16 8:30 PM
223 MIN 41½ under
224 CHI -2 *
10/17 8:35 PM
225 MIA 42½ *
226 NYJ -6.5 over
Monday, October 10, 2011
2011 week 05 - results
GAME ATS/TOTAL
KC@IND W/W
ARI@MIN L/L -should've seen this one
PHI@BUF W/L
OAK@HOU L/W - I could've changed pick due to Al Davis passing, but I didn't
NO@CAR L/W
CIN@JAC W/L
TEN@PIT L/L -again, should've known better
SEA@NYG W/W
TB@SF W/L
NYJ@NE P/L
SD@DEN L/L - close game,
GB@ATL W/L
CHI@DET W/L
weekly
results 7-5-1/4-9
for the year:
ATS/TOTAL
42-32-3/36-39-2
AFC South 0-4 ATS/SU this weekend
West Coast teams 4-0 (OAK, SEA, SD, SF)
[ARI & DEN aren't coastal]
Over/Under 9-4 -so many overs again.....
Road/Home 6-6-1
Favorite/Dog 6-6-1
KC@IND W/W
ARI@MIN L/L -should've seen this one
PHI@BUF W/L
OAK@HOU L/W - I could've changed pick due to Al Davis passing, but I didn't
NO@CAR L/W
CIN@JAC W/L
TEN@PIT L/L -again, should've known better
SEA@NYG W/W
TB@SF W/L
NYJ@NE P/L
SD@DEN L/L - close game,
GB@ATL W/L
CHI@DET W/L
weekly
results 7-5-1/4-9
for the year:
ATS/TOTAL
42-32-3/36-39-2
AFC South 0-4 ATS/SU this weekend
West Coast teams 4-0 (OAK, SEA, SD, SF)
[ARI & DEN aren't coastal]
Over/Under 9-4 -so many overs again.....
Road/Home 6-6-1
Favorite/Dog 6-6-1
Friday, October 07, 2011
2011 week 05 Sun-Mon - picks
10/09 1:00 PM
405 KC 38½ *
406 IND -2.5 over
10/09 1:00 PM
407 ARI 45 *
408 MIN -2.5 over
10/09 1:00 PM
409 PHI -2.5 under
410 BUF 49½ *
10/09 1:00 PM
411 OAK 48½ under
412 HOU -6 *
10/09 1:00 PM
413 NO -6.5 *
414 CAR 52 OVER
10/09 1:00 PM
415 CIN 37 ***
416 JAC -2.5 UNDER
10/09 1:00 PM
417 TEN 39½ ***
418 PIT -3.5 UNDER
10/09 1:00 PM
419 SEA 43½ *
420 NYG -10 OVER
10/09 4:05 PM
421 TB 41 under
422 SF -3 **
10/09 4:15 PM
423 NYJ 49½ *
424 NE -9 UNDER
10/09 4:15 PM
425 SD -4 UNDER
426 DEN 46 *
10/09 8:30 PM
427 GB -6 **
428 ATL 54 OVER
10/10 8:35 PM
429 CHI 47½ OVER
430 DET -6 *
405 KC 38½ *
406 IND -2.5 over
10/09 1:00 PM
407 ARI 45 *
408 MIN -2.5 over
10/09 1:00 PM
409 PHI -2.5 under
410 BUF 49½ *
10/09 1:00 PM
411 OAK 48½ under
412 HOU -6 *
10/09 1:00 PM
413 NO -6.5 *
414 CAR 52 OVER
10/09 1:00 PM
415 CIN 37 ***
416 JAC -2.5 UNDER
10/09 1:00 PM
417 TEN 39½ ***
418 PIT -3.5 UNDER
10/09 1:00 PM
419 SEA 43½ *
420 NYG -10 OVER
10/09 4:05 PM
421 TB 41 under
422 SF -3 **
10/09 4:15 PM
423 NYJ 49½ *
424 NE -9 UNDER
10/09 4:15 PM
425 SD -4 UNDER
426 DEN 46 *
10/09 8:30 PM
427 GB -6 **
428 ATL 54 OVER
10/10 8:35 PM
429 CHI 47½ OVER
430 DET -6 *
Monday, October 03, 2011
2011 week 04 - results
GAME ATS/TOTAL
DET@DAL W/W
NO@JAC W/W
SF@PHI W/L
WAS@STL W/W
TEN@CLE W/L
BUF@CIN L/W - upset of the week, BUF led 17-3 @H
MIN@KC W/L
CAR@CHI L/L - unexpected CAR surprises
PIT@HOU W/w
ATL@SEA W/W
NYG@ARI W/W
MIA@SD L/L - MIA QB Henne out Q1
DEN@GB W/L
NE@OAK L/L - I thought the total was a bit high
NYJ@BAL W/W
IND@TB W/L
weekly
results 12-4/8-8
for the year:
ATS/TOTAL
35-27-2/32-30-2
a good weekend, still I can do better w/total
DET@DAL W/W
NO@JAC W/W
SF@PHI W/L
WAS@STL W/W
TEN@CLE W/L
BUF@CIN L/W - upset of the week, BUF led 17-3 @H
MIN@KC W/L
CAR@CHI L/L - unexpected CAR surprises
PIT@HOU W/w
ATL@SEA W/W
NYG@ARI W/W
MIA@SD L/L - MIA QB Henne out Q1
DEN@GB W/L
NE@OAK L/L - I thought the total was a bit high
NYJ@BAL W/W
IND@TB W/L
weekly
results 12-4/8-8
for the year:
ATS/TOTAL
35-27-2/32-30-2
a good weekend, still I can do better w/total
Sunday, October 02, 2011
2011 week 04 Sun-Mon - picks
10/02 1:00 PM
207 DET 46½ ***
208 DAL -2.5 Over
10/02 1:00 PM
209 NO -7 *****
210 JAC 45 under
10/02 1:00 PM
211 SF 44 ***
212 PHI -9.5 under
10/02 1:00 PM
213 WAS -3 **
214 STL 43½ Under
10/02 1:00 PM
215 TEN 38½ ****
216 CLE PK under
10/02 1:00 PM
217 BUF -3 ****
218 CIN 43½ under
10/02 1:00 PM
219 MIN -3 OVER
220 KC 40 ****
10/02 1:00 PM
221 CAR 42½ under
222 CHI -6.5 **
10/02 1:00 PM
223 PIT 45 under
224 HOU -3.5 **
10/02 4:05 PM
225 ATL -5 over
226 SEA 39 *
10/02 4:05 PM
227 NYG -1.5 *****
228 ARI 44½ over
10/02 4:15 PM
229 MIA 44½ ***
230 SD -7 over
10/02 4:15 PM
231 DEN 46½ under
232 GB -12.5 *
10/02 4:15 PM
233 NE -6 over
234 OAK 55 ****
10/02 8:30 PM
235 NYJ 43 over
236 BAL -4 ***
10/03 8:35 PM
237 IND 40½ ***
238 TB -10 under
207 DET 46½ ***
208 DAL -2.5 Over
10/02 1:00 PM
209 NO -7 *****
210 JAC 45 under
10/02 1:00 PM
211 SF 44 ***
212 PHI -9.5 under
10/02 1:00 PM
213 WAS -3 **
214 STL 43½ Under
10/02 1:00 PM
215 TEN 38½ ****
216 CLE PK under
10/02 1:00 PM
217 BUF -3 ****
218 CIN 43½ under
10/02 1:00 PM
219 MIN -3 OVER
220 KC 40 ****
10/02 1:00 PM
221 CAR 42½ under
222 CHI -6.5 **
10/02 1:00 PM
223 PIT 45 under
224 HOU -3.5 **
10/02 4:05 PM
225 ATL -5 over
226 SEA 39 *
10/02 4:05 PM
227 NYG -1.5 *****
228 ARI 44½ over
10/02 4:15 PM
229 MIA 44½ ***
230 SD -7 over
10/02 4:15 PM
231 DEN 46½ under
232 GB -12.5 *
10/02 4:15 PM
233 NE -6 over
234 OAK 55 ****
10/02 8:30 PM
235 NYJ 43 over
236 BAL -4 ***
10/03 8:35 PM
237 IND 40½ ***
238 TB -10 under
Thursday, September 29, 2011
2011 week 03 - results
GAME ATS/TOTAL
SF@CIN W/L
NE@BUF W/W
HOU@NO L/W
NYG@PHI L/W
MIA@CLE L/W
DEN@TEN L/W
DET@MIN P/W
JAC@CAR W/W
KC@SD L/W
NYJ@OAK W/W
BAL@STL W/W
ATL@TB L/L
ARI@SEA L/L
GB@CHI L/W
PIT@IND L/L
WAS@DAL W/W
weekly
results 6-9-1/12-4
yeah totals!!
for the year:
ATS/TOTAL
23-23-2/24-22-2
note: last week ATS/TOTAL should have been
17-14-1/12-18-2
Just a comment on coaching decisions
to go for it on 4th down close to the goal line and with a small lead (DEN w/HC Fox 4pts and MIN w/HC Frazier 3pts);
stretch your lead, I know it's the safe thing to do, but you'll force your opponent to score TD's to win or tie.
it just seemed like a mano y mano decision, that made it easier for the opponent to win the game.
It's almost as if it's still preseason and HC's are challenging/testing their OL
SF@CIN W/L
NE@BUF W/W
HOU@NO L/W
NYG@PHI L/W
MIA@CLE L/W
DEN@TEN L/W
DET@MIN P/W
JAC@CAR W/W
KC@SD L/W
NYJ@OAK W/W
BAL@STL W/W
ATL@TB L/L
ARI@SEA L/L
GB@CHI L/W
PIT@IND L/L
WAS@DAL W/W
weekly
results 6-9-1/12-4
yeah totals!!
for the year:
ATS/TOTAL
23-23-2/24-22-2
note: last week ATS/TOTAL should have been
17-14-1/12-18-2
Just a comment on coaching decisions
to go for it on 4th down close to the goal line and with a small lead (DEN w/HC Fox 4pts and MIN w/HC Frazier 3pts);
stretch your lead, I know it's the safe thing to do, but you'll force your opponent to score TD's to win or tie.
it just seemed like a mano y mano decision, that made it easier for the opponent to win the game.
It's almost as if it's still preseason and HC's are challenging/testing their OL
Sunday, September 25, 2011
2011 week 03 Sun-Mon - picks
09/25 1:00 PM
395 SF 38½ ***
396 CIN -2.5 over
09/25 1:00 PM
397 NE -7 **OVER**
398 BUF 54½ *
09/25 1:00 PM
399 HOU 52 *
400 NO -3.5 ***OVER***
09/25 1:00 PM
401 NYG 47½ under
402 PHI -8.5 *
09/25 1:00 PM
403 MIA -1 *
404 CLE 41 Under
09/25 1:00 PM
405 DEN 43½ Under
406 TEN -7 *****
09/25 1:00 PM
407 DET -3 ***
408 MIN 45 over
09/25 1:00 PM
409 JAC 43 Under
410 CAR -3.5 *
09/25 4:05 PM
411 KC 44½ Under
412 SD -14 *
09/25 4:05 PM
413 NYJ -3 Over
414 OAK 41½ *
09/25 4:05 PM
415 BAL -5.5 *
416 STL 42 over
09/25 4:15 PM
417 ATL 44½ *
418 TB -2 Over
09/25 4:15 PM
419 ARI -3.5 *
420 SEA 43 OVER
09/25 4:15 PM
421 GB -4.5 under
422 CHI 44½ *
09/25 8:25 PM
423 PIT -10.5 *
424 IND 39½ Under
09/26 8:35 PM
425 WAS 46 **
426 DAL -6.5 Under
395 SF 38½ ***
396 CIN -2.5 over
09/25 1:00 PM
397 NE -7 **OVER**
398 BUF 54½ *
09/25 1:00 PM
399 HOU 52 *
400 NO -3.5 ***OVER***
09/25 1:00 PM
401 NYG 47½ under
402 PHI -8.5 *
09/25 1:00 PM
403 MIA -1 *
404 CLE 41 Under
09/25 1:00 PM
405 DEN 43½ Under
406 TEN -7 *****
09/25 1:00 PM
407 DET -3 ***
408 MIN 45 over
09/25 1:00 PM
409 JAC 43 Under
410 CAR -3.5 *
09/25 4:05 PM
411 KC 44½ Under
412 SD -14 *
09/25 4:05 PM
413 NYJ -3 Over
414 OAK 41½ *
09/25 4:05 PM
415 BAL -5.5 *
416 STL 42 over
09/25 4:15 PM
417 ATL 44½ *
418 TB -2 Over
09/25 4:15 PM
419 ARI -3.5 *
420 SEA 43 OVER
09/25 4:15 PM
421 GB -4.5 under
422 CHI 44½ *
09/25 8:25 PM
423 PIT -10.5 *
424 IND 39½ Under
09/26 8:35 PM
425 WAS 46 **
426 DAL -6.5 Under
Monday, September 19, 2011
2011 week 02 - results
GAME ATS/TOTAL
CHI@NO L/L
KC@DET W/L
JAC@NYJ L/W
OAK@BUF L/W
ARI@WAS L/W
BAL@TEN L/L
SEA@PIT W/W
GB@CAR L/L
TB@MIN L/L
CLE@IND L/L
DAL@SF P/W
HOU@MIA W/L
SD@NE W/W
CIN@DEN W/L
PHI@ATL L/W
STL@NYG W/P
weekly
results 6-9-1/6-9-1
for the year:
ATS/TOTAL
17-14-1/12-18-1
yea who travell'd far, from west to east OAK, ARI, SEA, SD
add a L to the SU column
as I outsmarted myself this past week, I'll leave it at that.
as you'll note O/U totals 11-5-1 this week and last week was 13-3
will this Over trend continue this coming week?
CHI@NO L/L
KC@DET W/L
JAC@NYJ L/W
OAK@BUF L/W
ARI@WAS L/W
BAL@TEN L/L
SEA@PIT W/W
GB@CAR L/L
TB@MIN L/L
CLE@IND L/L
DAL@SF P/W
HOU@MIA W/L
SD@NE W/W
CIN@DEN W/L
PHI@ATL L/W
STL@NYG W/P
weekly
results 6-9-1/6-9-1
for the year:
ATS/TOTAL
17-14-1/12-18-1
yea who travell'd far, from west to east OAK, ARI, SEA, SD
add a L to the SU column
as I outsmarted myself this past week, I'll leave it at that.
as you'll note O/U totals 11-5-1 this week and last week was 13-3
will this Over trend continue this coming week?
Sunday, September 18, 2011
2011 week 02 Sun-Mon - picks
ATS = **stars**
bold = favored side or toal
italic or bold and italic = straight up aka money line
green = favorite pick(s)
09/18 1:00 PM
197 CHI 47½ ***
198 NO -6 OVER
09/18 1:00 PM
199 KC 45½ *UNDER*
200 DET -8 *
09/18 1:00 PM
201 JAC 38½ **
202 NYJ -9.5 under
09/18 1:00 PM
203 OAK 41½ over
204 BUF -4 *
09/18 1:00 PM
205 ARI 44½ Under
206 WAS -4 *****
09/18 1:00 PM
207 BAL -6 *****
208 TEN 38½ under
09/18 1:00 PM
209 SEA 40 under
210 PIT -13.5 *
09/18 1:00 PM
211 GB -10 ***
212 CAR 45½ under
09/18 1:00 PM
213 TB 41½ UNDER
214 MIN -2.5 *
09/18 1:00 PM
215 CLE -2 under
216 IND 39 *
09/18 4:05 PM
217 DAL -3 *
218 SF 41 over
09/18 4:15 PM
219 HOU -3 **
220 MIA 48 OVER
09/18 4:15 PM
221 SD 53½ over
222 NE -7 *
09/18 4:15 PM
223 CIN 40 ***
224 DEN -3.5 under
09/18 8:25 PM
225 PHI -2.5 *
226 ATL 49½ OVER
09/19 8:35 PM
227 STL 44 Under
228 NYG -6 *
bold = favored side or toal
italic or bold and italic = straight up aka money line
green = favorite pick(s)
09/18 1:00 PM
197 CHI 47½ ***
198 NO -6 OVER
09/18 1:00 PM
199 KC 45½ *UNDER*
200 DET -8 *
09/18 1:00 PM
201 JAC 38½ **
202 NYJ -9.5 under
09/18 1:00 PM
203 OAK 41½ over
204 BUF -4 *
09/18 1:00 PM
205 ARI 44½ Under
206 WAS -4 *****
09/18 1:00 PM
207 BAL -6 *****
208 TEN 38½ under
09/18 1:00 PM
209 SEA 40 under
210 PIT -13.5 *
09/18 1:00 PM
211 GB -10 ***
212 CAR 45½ under
09/18 1:00 PM
213 TB 41½ UNDER
214 MIN -2.5 *
09/18 1:00 PM
215 CLE -2 under
216 IND 39 *
09/18 4:05 PM
217 DAL -3 *
218 SF 41 over
09/18 4:15 PM
219 HOU -3 **
220 MIA 48 OVER
09/18 4:15 PM
221 SD 53½ over
222 NE -7 *
09/18 4:15 PM
223 CIN 40 ***
224 DEN -3.5 under
09/18 8:25 PM
225 PHI -2.5 *
226 ATL 49½ OVER
09/19 8:35 PM
227 STL 44 Under
228 NYG -6 *
Monday, September 12, 2011
2011 week 01 - results
GAME RESULT(ATS/TOTAL )
NO@GB W/W
PIT@BAL L/L - surprise, surprise
DET@TB W/W
ATL@CHI L/L - CHI woe is me, not again - they won - convincingly
BUF@KC W/W
IND@HOU W/W
PHI@STL L/P - interesting game, PHI fumble return for TD - a turning point in the game?
CIN@CLE W/L
TEN@JAC W/L - what was I thinking for total???
NYG@WAS W/L
CAR@ARI W/L
SEA@SF W/L
MIN@SD L/W
DAL@NYJ W/L
NE@MIA W/L
OAK@DEN L/W
results 11-5/6-9-1
Very good ATS and not good at all for totals....
I review'd totals once again and now I noticed that there were only two games with the total set above the NFL average total of 42-45pts. If I had picked overs for all games with "low" totals, I could have been 10-1 in picks (only the TEN @JAC game stayed true to form, PHI @STL had a normal total and was either a Push or Under, 44 or 44.5 and the IND @HOU total was set high at 46.5) I wonder if next week the totals will be set a bit higher? Or will it be kept low due to teams haven't had a real offseason and are still cranking up? ATL, PIT, maybe even TEN?
As for a reason to why the totals are higher, perhaps its just tackling... or lack there of. Just look at special teams play, I was surprised by the number of runbacks, I was thinking more knees in the endzone and thus drives begin at the twenty, but instead I think ST coordinators may be wanting more returns as tackling for rookies and other ST players will be lacking in fundamentals.
There were 3 kick offs and 6 punts (by my count) returned for TDs and this weekend. That's more than half of the games w/a TD by ST.
The sportsbooks could be torn between setting the total to high, which the sharks may like and bet large amounts and move the line lower or setting the total to low and the public will drive it higher, since the public favors the over. An interesting dilemma, which I think will favor the public. After a brief review of the lines available at vegasinsider.com I noticed 4 games w/lines set between 42-45, 4 games set 46 or higher and the remaining 8 games are set at 41 or less.
This is 2 more for the average and 2 more for above average than last week, so 4 games less than average were taken away, seems a bit cautious to me. I'll hazard a guess that 8 games will fall between 42-45 and 4 above and 4 below, let's see what happens next week.
NO@GB W/W
PIT@BAL L/L - surprise, surprise
DET@TB W/W
ATL@CHI L/L - CHI woe is me, not again - they won - convincingly
BUF@KC W/W
IND@HOU W/W
PHI@STL L/P - interesting game, PHI fumble return for TD - a turning point in the game?
CIN@CLE W/L
TEN@JAC W/L - what was I thinking for total???
NYG@WAS W/L
CAR@ARI W/L
SEA@SF W/L
MIN@SD L/W
DAL@NYJ W/L
NE@MIA W/L
OAK@DEN L/W
results 11-5/6-9-1
Very good ATS and not good at all for totals....
I review'd totals once again and now I noticed that there were only two games with the total set above the NFL average total of 42-45pts. If I had picked overs for all games with "low" totals, I could have been 10-1 in picks (only the TEN @JAC game stayed true to form, PHI @STL had a normal total and was either a Push or Under, 44 or 44.5 and the IND @HOU total was set high at 46.5) I wonder if next week the totals will be set a bit higher? Or will it be kept low due to teams haven't had a real offseason and are still cranking up? ATL, PIT, maybe even TEN?
As for a reason to why the totals are higher, perhaps its just tackling... or lack there of. Just look at special teams play, I was surprised by the number of runbacks, I was thinking more knees in the endzone and thus drives begin at the twenty, but instead I think ST coordinators may be wanting more returns as tackling for rookies and other ST players will be lacking in fundamentals.
There were 3 kick offs and 6 punts (by my count) returned for TDs and this weekend. That's more than half of the games w/a TD by ST.
The sportsbooks could be torn between setting the total to high, which the sharks may like and bet large amounts and move the line lower or setting the total to low and the public will drive it higher, since the public favors the over. An interesting dilemma, which I think will favor the public. After a brief review of the lines available at vegasinsider.com I noticed 4 games w/lines set between 42-45, 4 games set 46 or higher and the remaining 8 games are set at 41 or less.
This is 2 more for the average and 2 more for above average than last week, so 4 games less than average were taken away, seems a bit cautious to me. I'll hazard a guess that 8 games will fall between 42-45 and 4 above and 4 below, let's see what happens next week.
Saturday, September 10, 2011
2011 week 01 Sun-Mon - picks
ATS = **stars**
bold = favored side or toal
italic or bold and italic = straight up aka money line
green = favorite pick(s)
09/11 1:00 PM
453 PIT 36 *
454 BAL -1.5 Under
09/11 1:00 PM
455 DET 41½ *
456 TB -1.5 **OVER**
09/11 1:00 PM
457 ATL -2.5 **
458 CHI 40½ under
09/11 1:00 PM
459 BUF 40½ *
460 KC -5.5 Over
09/11 1:00 PM
461 IND 43½ under
462 HOU -8.5 *****
09/11 1:00 PM
463 PHI -4 OVER
464 STL 44 *
09/11 1:00 PM
465 CIN 35½ *
466 CLE -6.5 Under
09/11 1:00 PM
467 TEN 37 Over
468 JAC -1.5 *
09/11 4:15 PM
469 NYG -3 under
470 WAS 39 **
09/11 4:15 PM
471 CAR 37 UNDER
472 ARI -7 ***
09/11 4:15 PM
473 SEA 37½ under
474 SF -5.5 *
09/11 4:15 PM
475 MIN 41½ Over
476 SD -8.5 *
09/11 8:25 PM
477 DAL 40½ *
478 NYJ -6 UNDER
09/12 7:00 PM
479 NE -7 Under
480 MIA 45½ *
09/12 10:15 PM
481 OAK 40½ Over
482 DEN -3 *
bold = favored side or toal
italic or bold and italic = straight up aka money line
green = favorite pick(s)
09/11 1:00 PM
453 PIT 36 *
454 BAL -1.5 Under
09/11 1:00 PM
455 DET 41½ *
456 TB -1.5 **OVER**
09/11 1:00 PM
457 ATL -2.5 **
458 CHI 40½ under
09/11 1:00 PM
459 BUF 40½ *
460 KC -5.5 Over
09/11 1:00 PM
461 IND 43½ under
462 HOU -8.5 *****
09/11 1:00 PM
463 PHI -4 OVER
464 STL 44 *
09/11 1:00 PM
465 CIN 35½ *
466 CLE -6.5 Under
09/11 1:00 PM
467 TEN 37 Over
468 JAC -1.5 *
09/11 4:15 PM
469 NYG -3 under
470 WAS 39 **
09/11 4:15 PM
471 CAR 37 UNDER
472 ARI -7 ***
09/11 4:15 PM
473 SEA 37½ under
474 SF -5.5 *
09/11 4:15 PM
475 MIN 41½ Over
476 SD -8.5 *
09/11 8:25 PM
477 DAL 40½ *
478 NYJ -6 UNDER
09/12 7:00 PM
479 NE -7 Under
480 MIA 45½ *
09/12 10:15 PM
481 OAK 40½ Over
482 DEN -3 *
Tuesday, September 06, 2011
2011 week 01 Thursday night - picks
451 New Orleans 47
452 Green Bay -4
ok, so I'm first thinking, GB SU should win (money line)
and then that total looks awfully low, it should be 10pts more (so Over total 47)
that leaves the spread and -4 means a TD and nothing less will win, so 30-24 seems like a good number (GB).
which is the better bet? take over 47 total points
BTW numbers opened up at -4.5 and 46.5, so $$ is flowing to NO and Over
452 Green Bay -4
ok, so I'm first thinking, GB SU should win (money line)
and then that total looks awfully low, it should be 10pts more (so Over total 47)
that leaves the spread and -4 means a TD and nothing less will win, so 30-24 seems like a good number (GB).
which is the better bet? take over 47 total points
BTW numbers opened up at -4.5 and 46.5, so $$ is flowing to NO and Over
Saturday, August 27, 2011
NFL Preseason Live 2011 subscription
Ok, so again this year I've purchased preseason as well as regular season access via nfl.com site.
Last year, there were issues w/game tape from local broadcasters, missing footage, delay, etc.
This year there appears to be an issue w/broadcast of WAS @BAL from ESPN.
I've alerted nfl support (nflpreseasonlive@neulion.com) but they've given me the standard "it's not 24hrs" (game is available after 24 hrs - their rules on blacked out games)
Well it's now after midnight PST which makes it 3am EST and the game is still not available.
Let's see game began at 8pm EST on Thursday approx end at 11pm EST.
So it should be available around 11pm Friday EST, which translates to 8pm PST, but it's now after midnight (Saturday) and I still see blacked out in the guide, sigh....
Why don't I have ESPN? because this year I don't have cable or satellite TV (I had to cut back somewhere due to - "in between jobs" status for months).
You'll need to click on picture to see the date and time in lower left corner.
So my guess is ESPN is having an issue, but why doesn't nfl tech support say so???
Comment on viewing angles:
If I could have one view it would be an end zone view. I really wish the nfl would add this feature/view for all games especially for those of us who will view the games online. I believe the nfl already "shoots" this view, we as the general public are not priviledged to watch this view, just teams, coachs and nfl broadcast tv analyst, but we really should have access.
BTW MNF in past seasons did have the "end zone" view. Hopefully this year they'll continue to have this view.
I would prefer the view from the offense, but if they only had the view from the defense I would still prefer this versus the side view that we now see on broadcast tv for the past 40+ years.
I've noticed at time during a broadcast that we'll see a wider view during a play. My guess is that someone in the broadcast booth thinks it's going to be a pass play, but what do you know? it's an inside handoff and that wide focus has to quickly resized, a bit dizzying for my eyes. Just do end zone, slightly higher, the camera moving above the field would be ideal for such a use and with wide angle we should have a fine view.
We have the technology to broadcast simultaneous views on regular over the air tv w/the advent of all digital airwaves. Local broadcast stations should beg their network to broadcast multiple views. CBS could for instance use 8.1 for normal and 8.10 for endzone views. Why 8.10? well I noticed 8.2 is used for Spanish language and here in Vegas, there is a channel 47 which uses .1 through .8 (there's oldies and other specific content on these channels).
Oh well, billions spent on creating the nfl 'product', but when will they spend on more features for the general public????
Wednesday, March 23, 2011
How the new kickoff rules may affect the game
I was reading this article at pro-football-reference.com and stopped for a while to muse about may really happen.
Those teams that do have good ST return men will probably be impacted the most. BUF, CHI, CLE, and SEA in mind will be most notable. These teams won't be able to change field position as easily on kick returns and thus should punt more often and total scores for their games should have a greater tendency to go under the total.
Of course, if this labor dispute continues and we have a shortened seasoned, again under the total should occur more often even if the books adjust the lines. The only teams that will be able to score int 35+ range will be the veteran teams w/a good QB, thus over the total should occur in less games than normal.
I wonder what the normal over/under will be for this upcoming season? I also wonder how many overs and unders has occurred for the past 5 seasons as well as the O/U tendency for each team.
Safety is good for the game/players. Kick offs will become more like the 25yd FG attempt. The 25yd FG I would guess is successful about 95% of the time and perhaps touchbacks to the 25yd line will be just as routine. Eventually coaches will place less emphasis on the KO and thus ST play which perhaps could lead to more practice on the offensive side or the ball, after all the team with the most points wins right?
A few teams have FG kickers who can also do kickoffs from the 35yd line and get the touchback. OAK comes to mind and I think the kicker in ARI perhaps as well (unless I'm thinking of someone else). This could help on game day with the team activating another player (instead of carrying ST player).
The average teams has 10 - 12 possessions a game, if both teams score 21pts (or 3 out of 10 possessions) then 42 will be the ending total for the game. The average total must sit somewhere in between 42 and 45 pts is what I'll guess for right now.
Now if instead of scoring a TD, you have to punt or settle for a FG, total should be lower at the end of the majority games. Thus if the total is set somewhere between 42 - 45 pts the under should occur more often the over. We'll see if this occurs or I hope to remember to check on this later on this year.
update 3/24
via NFL, the touchback has been returned to the 20yd line (instead of 25yd) and I still state we will see more punts from the returning team, and w/more 'field position punts', there will be less scoring TD's and more FG's.
Those teams w/good QB's & WR's will move the ball and continue to score TD's. The teams w/questionable QB's will only be able to score TD's perhaps 1 of 4 or 5 possessions, but more likely score FG's
So for a TD team vs a FG team, 3.5 pts won't make much of a difference, the fav will win.
A FG team vs a FG team, that .5 pts will really make a difference.
I suspect that we may see those odd numbers again of 4.5 and 5.5 spread, where depending on the team, the dog may start to bark loudly.
Those teams that do have good ST return men will probably be impacted the most. BUF, CHI, CLE, and SEA in mind will be most notable. These teams won't be able to change field position as easily on kick returns and thus should punt more often and total scores for their games should have a greater tendency to go under the total.
Of course, if this labor dispute continues and we have a shortened seasoned, again under the total should occur more often even if the books adjust the lines. The only teams that will be able to score int 35+ range will be the veteran teams w/a good QB, thus over the total should occur in less games than normal.
I wonder what the normal over/under will be for this upcoming season? I also wonder how many overs and unders has occurred for the past 5 seasons as well as the O/U tendency for each team.
Safety is good for the game/players. Kick offs will become more like the 25yd FG attempt. The 25yd FG I would guess is successful about 95% of the time and perhaps touchbacks to the 25yd line will be just as routine. Eventually coaches will place less emphasis on the KO and thus ST play which perhaps could lead to more practice on the offensive side or the ball, after all the team with the most points wins right?
A few teams have FG kickers who can also do kickoffs from the 35yd line and get the touchback. OAK comes to mind and I think the kicker in ARI perhaps as well (unless I'm thinking of someone else). This could help on game day with the team activating another player (instead of carrying ST player).
The average teams has 10 - 12 possessions a game, if both teams score 21pts (or 3 out of 10 possessions) then 42 will be the ending total for the game. The average total must sit somewhere in between 42 and 45 pts is what I'll guess for right now.
Now if instead of scoring a TD, you have to punt or settle for a FG, total should be lower at the end of the majority games. Thus if the total is set somewhere between 42 - 45 pts the under should occur more often the over. We'll see if this occurs or I hope to remember to check on this later on this year.
update 3/24
via NFL, the touchback has been returned to the 20yd line (instead of 25yd) and I still state we will see more punts from the returning team, and w/more 'field position punts', there will be less scoring TD's and more FG's.
Those teams w/good QB's & WR's will move the ball and continue to score TD's. The teams w/questionable QB's will only be able to score TD's perhaps 1 of 4 or 5 possessions, but more likely score FG's
So for a TD team vs a FG team, 3.5 pts won't make much of a difference, the fav will win.
A FG team vs a FG team, that .5 pts will really make a difference.
I suspect that we may see those odd numbers again of 4.5 and 5.5 spread, where depending on the team, the dog may start to bark loudly.
Monday, February 07, 2011
Season 2010 - week 21 - SuperBowl XLV - results
ATS
sides 0-1
O/U 1-0
OLyrs 0-1
notes: PIT w/o their Center M Pouncey is a bit older along the O-line (by 3 years) and thus the 0-1 record.
Game comments -
The better team won, especially in the beginning, the interceptions at the beginning of the game and the fumble at the end, leads me to say the GB D played outstanding when it counted and it appeared that Big Ben and Co. just fell apart in the 4th Q, and this could really be seen in their last gasp 2 minute drill.
For the most part PIT D played fairly well, w/both DC LeBeau and S Polamalu showing their "age", their front 7 had a really nice game, but GB QB got the ball out of his hands in a very timely manner.
GB O had a good game, but the WR's could have had a much better game. This game could have been a blow out for GB except for the dropsies by their WR's.
Watching ST, PIT K and FG were 'off', the K in the 4th Q couldn't drive the KO into the endzone. GB ST had a better game, but not their best.
All in all, the better team won, hopefully GB will again make it to the SB in the near future.
sides 0-1
O/U 1-0
OLyrs 0-1
notes: PIT w/o their Center M Pouncey is a bit older along the O-line (by 3 years) and thus the 0-1 record.
Game comments -
The better team won, especially in the beginning, the interceptions at the beginning of the game and the fumble at the end, leads me to say the GB D played outstanding when it counted and it appeared that Big Ben and Co. just fell apart in the 4th Q, and this could really be seen in their last gasp 2 minute drill.
For the most part PIT D played fairly well, w/both DC LeBeau and S Polamalu showing their "age", their front 7 had a really nice game, but GB QB got the ball out of his hands in a very timely manner.
GB O had a good game, but the WR's could have had a much better game. This game could have been a blow out for GB except for the dropsies by their WR's.
Watching ST, PIT K and FG were 'off', the K in the 4th Q couldn't drive the KO into the endzone. GB ST had a better game, but not their best.
All in all, the better team won, hopefully GB will again make it to the SB in the near future.
Wednesday, February 02, 2011
Season 2010 - week 20 - conference championship results
ATS
sides 2-0
O/U 1-1
OLyrs 0-2
finally a decent week, too bad I had no bets down, (unemployed at the moment).
sides 2-0
O/U 1-1
OLyrs 0-2
finally a decent week, too bad I had no bets down, (unemployed at the moment).
Season 2010 week 21 - SuperBowl XLV
SUPER BOWL XLV Cowboys Stadium - Arlington, TX
02/06 6:25 PM
101 PIT 45 ***
102 GB -2.5 Over
a behemoth of a storm, brings cold, wind, snow and sleet to the area,
but the roof will be closed for this event.
I had thought of posting picks for the SB props, but since I'm a little busy
maybe next year...
02/06 6:25 PM
101 PIT 45 ***
102 GB -2.5 Over
a behemoth of a storm, brings cold, wind, snow and sleet to the area,
but the roof will be closed for this event.
I had thought of posting picks for the SB props, but since I'm a little busy
maybe next year...
Tuesday, January 18, 2011
Season 2010 - week 20 - Conference Championship picks
01/23 3:00 PM
303 GB -3.5 **
304 CHI 43½ OOOO
01/23 6:30 PM
305 NYJ 38½ OOOO
306 PIT -3.5 *
303 GB -3.5 **
304 CHI 43½ OOOO
01/23 6:30 PM
305 NYJ 38½ OOOO
306 PIT -3.5 *
Sunday, January 16, 2011
Season 2010 - week 19 - divisional playoffs - results
ATS
sides 1-3
O/U 1-3
OLyrs 1-3
wow, both #1 seeds lost and both #2 seeds won their games, NYJ and GB are both lucky and good, guess I rather just be lucky
interestingly enough that was NE's 3rd playoff game loss in a row...
sides 1-3
O/U 1-3
OLyrs 1-3
wow, both #1 seeds lost and both #2 seeds won their games, NYJ and GB are both lucky and good, guess I rather just be lucky
interestingly enough that was NE's 3rd playoff game loss in a row...
Wednesday, January 12, 2011
Season 2010 - week 19 - Divisional playoffs picks
01/15 4:30 PM
109 BAL 37 *
110 PIT -3.5 UUUUUU
CBS
01/15 8:00 PM
111 GB 44 *
112 ATL -2.5 UU
FOX
01/16 1:00 PM
113 SEA 41 *
114 CHI -10 OO
FOX
01/16 4:30 PM
115 NYJ 45 U
116 NE -8.5 **
CBS
I'm projecting w/NYJ @NE game around 6TD's
and 1 - 3 FG's, so doing a 6pt tease w/Over
39 and Under 51 should be a good bet
The under w/BAL @PIT is probably the best bet
109 BAL 37 *
110 PIT -3.5 UUUUUU
CBS
01/15 8:00 PM
111 GB 44 *
112 ATL -2.5 UU
FOX
01/16 1:00 PM
113 SEA 41 *
114 CHI -10 OO
FOX
01/16 4:30 PM
115 NYJ 45 U
116 NE -8.5 **
CBS
I'm projecting w/NYJ @NE game around 6TD's
and 1 - 3 FG's, so doing a 6pt tease w/Over
39 and Under 51 should be a good bet
The under w/BAL @PIT is probably the best bet
Sunday, January 09, 2011
Season 2010 - wk18 - wildcard playoff results
ATS
sides 2-2
O/U 1-3
OLyrs 1-3
horrible, except for the fact that the BAL/KC game came to fruition, none of the other games, played to form.
but wouldn't you know??
SEA @home, still tough to beat
IND ST and D are the liability
I really thought an over game would occur w/GB @PHI, but who knew?? GB has a running game... oh well, on to next week
sides 2-2
O/U 1-3
OLyrs 1-3
horrible, except for the fact that the BAL/KC game came to fruition, none of the other games, played to form.
but wouldn't you know??
SEA @home, still tough to beat
IND ST and D are the liability
I really thought an over game would occur w/GB @PHI, but who knew?? GB has a running game... oh well, on to next week
Monday, January 03, 2011
Season 2010 - wk 18 - wild card playoff picks
01/08 4:30 PM
101 NO -10 ****
102 SEA 45 U
01/08 8:05 PM
103 NYJ 44½ O
104 IND -2.5 ***
01/09 1:00 PM
105 BAL -3 *****
106 KC 41 U
01/09 4:30 PM
107 GB 46½ *
108 PHI -2.5 OOOO
101 NO -10 ****
102 SEA 45 U
01/08 8:05 PM
103 NYJ 44½ O
104 IND -2.5 ***
01/09 1:00 PM
105 BAL -3 *****
106 KC 41 U
01/09 4:30 PM
107 GB 46½ *
108 PHI -2.5 OOOO
Sunday, January 02, 2011
Season 2010 - week 17 - results
| Game | ATS | O/U | favored side/total | OLage diff (older should win) |
| OAK @KC | L | W | L | L |
| MIA @NE | L | L | L | W |
| TEN @IND | L | W | W | L |
| JAC @HOU | W | W | W | L |
| PIT @CLE | W | W | W | L |
| CIN @BAL | L | W | W | W |
| MIN @DET | W | W | W | W |
| NYG @WAS | L | L | L | L |
| CHI @GB | L | W | L | W |
| DAL @PHI | W | L | W | W |
| BUF @NYJ | L | L | L | W |
| CAR @ATL | W | P | W | W |
| TB @NO | W | W | W | L |
| STL @SEA | L | W | L | W |
| ARI @SF | L | L | L | W |
| SD @DEN | L | W | W | W |
| TOTALS | 6-10 | 10-5-1 | 9-7 | 10-6 |
| For the Year | 126-126-4 | 133-122-1 | 132-123-1 | 133-122-1 |
Season 2010 - week 17 - picks
01/02 1:00 PM
301 OAK 43½ U
302 KC -3.5 ***
01/02 1:00 PM
303 MIA 43½ ****
304 NE -5.5 U
NE clinched 1 seed, may rest starters
NE-QB-Brady-Questionable
01/02 4:15 PM
305 TEN 48 UUU
306 IND -9.5 *
01/02 4:15 PM
307 JAC 45½ O
308 HOU -3 *****
JAC-RB-Jones-Drew-Questionable;
QB-Garrard-Out
HOU-WR-Johnson-Questionable
01/02 1:00 PM
309 PIT -5.5 ***
310 CLE 37½ O
01/02 1:00 PM
311 CIN 43 UUUU
312 BAL -9.5 *
01/02 1:00 PM
313 MIN 43 UUU
314 DET -3.5 *
01/02 4:15 PM
315 NYG -4 ****
316 WAS 44½ O
01/02 4:15 PM
317 CHI 42½ U
318 GB -10 ***
Chicago clinched 2 seed, may rest
starters
01/02 4:15 PM
319 DAL 43½ *******
320 PHI -3.5 O
DAL-QB-Kitna-OUT PHI-QB-Vick-Doubtful PHI
clinched 3 seed, may rest starters
01/02 1:00 PM
321 BUF 38½ *
322 NYJ -3 UUU
NYJ-QB-Sanchez NOT expected to start
(Rest)
01/02 1:00 PM
323 CAR 41 U
324 ATL -14 ***
01/02 1:00 PM
325 TB 47½ ***
326 NO -7 UUUU
01/02 8:25 PM
327 STL -3 ****
328 SEA 41½ U
01/02 4:15 PM
329 ARI 38½ *
330 SF -6 UUU
01/02 4:15 PM
331 SD -3.5 OOOOO
332 DEN 47 *
301 OAK 43½ U
302 KC -3.5 ***
01/02 1:00 PM
303 MIA 43½ ****
304 NE -5.5 U
NE clinched 1 seed, may rest starters
NE-QB-Brady-Questionable
01/02 4:15 PM
305 TEN 48 UUU
306 IND -9.5 *
01/02 4:15 PM
307 JAC 45½ O
308 HOU -3 *****
JAC-RB-Jones-Drew-Questionable;
QB-Garrard-Out
HOU-WR-Johnson-Questionable
01/02 1:00 PM
309 PIT -5.5 ***
310 CLE 37½ O
01/02 1:00 PM
311 CIN 43 UUUU
312 BAL -9.5 *
01/02 1:00 PM
313 MIN 43 UUU
314 DET -3.5 *
01/02 4:15 PM
315 NYG -4 ****
316 WAS 44½ O
01/02 4:15 PM
317 CHI 42½ U
318 GB -10 ***
Chicago clinched 2 seed, may rest
starters
01/02 4:15 PM
319 DAL 43½ *******
320 PHI -3.5 O
DAL-QB-Kitna-OUT PHI-QB-Vick-Doubtful PHI
clinched 3 seed, may rest starters
01/02 1:00 PM
321 BUF 38½ *
322 NYJ -3 UUU
NYJ-QB-Sanchez NOT expected to start
(Rest)
01/02 1:00 PM
323 CAR 41 U
324 ATL -14 ***
01/02 1:00 PM
325 TB 47½ ***
326 NO -7 UUUU
01/02 8:25 PM
327 STL -3 ****
328 SEA 41½ U
01/02 4:15 PM
329 ARI 38½ *
330 SF -6 UUU
01/02 4:15 PM
331 SD -3.5 OOOOO
332 DEN 47 *
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