Tuesday, December 31, 2013

2013 - week 18, playoffs - picks

Early thoughts and more....

Last week GB, SD, PHI played win and they're in, essentially another playoff game, thus this will be their 2nd wk in-a-row where they must win. Keeping your juices flowing isn't so easy two weeks in a row.
This may be a good separate parlay to try (bet against GB, SD, PHI)
**SF, CIN, NO** and maybe IND since they really played hard last week w/starters and KC did not.

Bet on the older team (based on starters):
**KC, NO, SD, SF**
(note: CIN starters had more games last year than SD)

Bet on the older QB:
**KC, NO, SD, GB**

Bet on QB w/end of season higher QB rating:
KC( 89.1) IND( 87.0)
NO(104.7) PHI(119.2)
SD(105.5) CIN( 88.8)
SF( 91.6) GB (104.9)
**KC, PHI, SD, GB**

Bet on the higher QB O-D rating:
KC( 7.6) IND( 3.3)
NO(21)  PHI(18)
SD( 9.2) CIN(15)
SF(16)  GB (-7.5)
**KC, NO, CIN, SF**

Bet on the higher scoring efficiency O-D rating:
KC( 3%) IND(7%)
NO(10%) PHI(3%)
SD( 9%) CIN(5%)
SF(11%) GB (3%)
**IND, NO, SD, SF**

01/04 4:35 PM
101 KC 46½ *
102 IND -2½ over

IND won wk16 23-7 @KC
Was KC playin' possum in wk16? (Knowing they could not improve playoff position at that time). Last week the majority of KC backups played and they almost won the game on the road @SD.
IND starters played hard for their win vs JAC last weekend, so we'll have a clash of philosophies this weekend, play 'em and keep them hot or rest 'em and stay healthy for the final 4 games (if you make it to SB).

01/04 8:10 PM
103 NO 54 OVER
104 PHI -2½ *

total is far more tempting than side, these teams should score in the 30's
NO hasn't played well on the road this season and PHI hasn't played much better at home. NO is the more 'seasoned' team, but PHI O has shown itself to be dynamic and w/ST that can be a field changer. If weather becomes a factor, you really can only look at PHI.

01/05 1:05 PM
105 SD 47 under
106 CIN -7 ***

CIN won wk13 17-10 @SD
It's hard to pick SD. SD QB Rivers is playing his best ball since ?? at least several seasons ago, but they couldn't dominate KC backups last weekend and needed OT and a non-called penalty by referees in regulation that probably cost PIT a playoff spot. CIN has been one and done for the past two years. Looks like they get over a hump this year (just like ATL last year).

01/05 4:40 PM
107 SF -3 *
108 GB 48 under

SF won wk1 34-28 @home
GB won last weekend often going for it on 4th down. Good fortune follow the bold and brave. I don't think GB OL will hold up well vs SF DL and GB QB Rodgers may need to endure multiple sacks to have a chance at winning.

2013 - week 17 - results

CAR @ATL, FOX, interesting as far as ATL playing much better, but CAR D comes thru and gets a TO for a score, but CAR O still sputters on 3rd down. Just barely watched this game.
1/1 update: I forgot to mention that ATL TE Gonzales final home game, SU loss, ATS win. This ATS trend is impressive.

BAL @CIN, CBS, CIN in no longer lil' bro to BAL. Flacco can't hit deep ball with any consistency and couldn't score TD's off of two CIN TO's. This really stood out FG's won't cut it vs CIN and an O that continued to attack during the game. It's odd how BAL run O did fairly well, but they didn't stick with it or the timing of play calls was off IMO

GB @CHI, FOX, GB QB Rodgers looks a bit rusty, CHI QB Cutler doesn't look much better and again GB w/Rodgers starting has CHI 'number' as they gained the win, with 'fortune favoring the bold and brave'. GB went for it on 4th downs several times during the game and changed their fortune.

DEN @OAK, CBS, didn't watch, but I did catch the end of the KC @SD game, which they must have switched over due to a boring game w/Manning & Co. KC QB Daniels not bad, but what's amazing is that the majority of KC backups are playing and they could've won this game vs SD. I don't think SD will be as fortunate @CIN next week

PHI @DAL, SNF, flex'd game, PHI O just makes it tough on an opponents D, DAL QB Orton played about as expected, it's TE Witten and RB Murray who had mental miscues, that cost DAL on drives

End of season results: 2 games below .500 ATS, 4 games above .500 for totals. Not bad this season, considering the early season trials (some teams showed great promise, but early wins weren't there [CAR] and others were just an early season mirage [HOU]) and selling home, moving into new place from weeks 8 thru 14 or so, losing all that time to watch games really made a difference. I still am 'settling in' and just finding the time to update football games and such, well... I'm at times a day or two behind the curve...

2013 - week 17 - Results

Friday, December 27, 2013

I like this at MMQB


What I noticed were the stats, far superior to any I've seen on any other site. I wonder if they reveal these stats every week. In particular I really noticed the DL/DE stats.

I also like the weekly team ranking of the D's and the bottom 10 and top 10, made me rethink my picks, I did watch a few w/game rewind, but due to xmas. I spent far less time going over games.

I picked out things like DAL won despite DAL D being ranked 28th vs WAS last week. DET D had a good week vs NYG, so it's really on their O for the loss. PIT gets to play CLE this week, perhaps another high scoring game?

I also noticed the weather for the weekend, I may need to change a few games to UNDER due to expected rain (@NYG, @PIT, @NE, and maybe @CIN), snow (@CHI)

Thursday, December 26, 2013

2013 - week 17 - picks

Playoff positions up for grabs w/a couple of elimination games, PHI @DAL, GB @CHI
KC seems to be the only team w/starters that may be rested for week 17

12/29 1:00 PM
301 CAR -6½ *UNDER
302 ATL 46 *

CAR won wk9 34-10
Taking a chance w/the points, CAR D is formidable, but their O may sputter w/o WR Smith, the problem for ATL will be stopping run w/o DT Peters
CAR w/win wins NFC S and 1st rd bye
ATL ?emo? loss @SF
ATL TE Gonzales final home game

12/29 4:25 PM
303 GB -3 under
304 CHI 51½ *

CHI won wk9 27-20
GB LB Mathews OUT
GB RB Lacy ?OUT?
I can't give GB much hope w/o their star QB Rodgers. This is for the NFC North crown, looks like CHI is playoff bound.
12/26 update: GB QB Rodgers starts
even w/GB QB Rodgers back, GB D is still an issue

12/29 1:00 PM
305 HOU 44½ under?
306 TEN -7 ***

HOU won wk2 30-24
I don't think HOU will be as interested in this game as much as TEN will be, since TEN is 0-3 vs HOU (past 2 seasons), HOU does have their 0-12 streak SU, but this is a division game and I believe the split will occur for the series.
after bye TEN @home totals>56+pts
after bye HOU road totals=51,47,28
HOU D will give up at least 24pts, maybe as much as 31pts
TEN 2nd division game are lower scoring totals=36,36(both road)

12/29 1:00 PM
307 CLE 44 over?
308 PIT -7 *

PIT won wk12 27-11
PIT WR Sanders ?OUT?
PIT depth?
it's hard to envision CLE winning, PIT is just one of those teams that CLE does not have a good record 2-18 SU vs PIT, so though -7 is larger than the standard -3 at home, PIT should be favored by at least a TD, perhaps more

12/29 1:00 PM
309 WAS 46 *
310 NYG -3½ under

NYG won wk13 24-17
WAS LB Orakpo ?OUT?

12/29 1:00 PM
311 BAL 44½ under
312 CIN -6 *

BAL won wk10 20-17
this season if CIN leads or ties @half they have won game, if they are behind they have won only once SU
BAL is very similar to CIN if they are behind at half they have won only twice, if they are ahead or tied 6-2 SU

12/29 1:00 PM
313 JAC 45½ UNDER
314 IND -11½ *?

IND won wk4 37-3
I expect IND to win @home, w/losses @home to MIA and STL will IND cover?
Interestingly enough JAC is 4-0 ATS vs HOU and TEN, 0-1 vs IND

12/29 8:30 PM
315 PHI -6½ ****
316 DAL 52½ under?

DAL QB Orton starts
DAL WR Bryant back? OUT?
DAL won wk7 17-3
This is for the NFC East crown, DAL will need more than luck at home.

12/29 1:00 PM
317 NYJ 41 *
318 MIA -6½ over?

MIA snap count in question
MIA won wk13 23-3

12/29 1:00 PM
319 DET 52 *
320 MIN -3 *under

DET won wk1 34-24
MIN RB Peterson OUT
12/27 update: changed pick from MIN/Under to DET/Under

12/29 4:25 PM
321 BUF 47 under
322 NE -9½ *

NE won wk1 23-21
BUF coming off goosing MIA last weekend, NE is 19-1 vs BUF
Will NE cover?
NE does have incentive to win a first round bye

12/29 4:25 PM
323 TB 47 under
324 NO -12½ *

NO won wk2 16-14
NO SS Harper starts
Schiano has yet to win vs Payton, I want to believe in the split, but since the first game was at the start of the season, NO w/playoff incentives should win, will they cover?

12/29 4:25 PM
325 DEN -12 *
326 OAK 53 *under*

DEN won wk3 37-21
OAK QB Pryor starts
Two scores, will DEN cover? OAK D has had recent issues, so it's likely a high score for DEN O, but what about OAK O? Will OAK O score more than 14pts? DEN could score 40pts, but it's not likely. 
** DEN has won AFC West and either #1 or #2 seed **
DEN does have incentive to play home games thru playoffs.

12/29 4:25 PM
327 SF -1½ *UNDER
328 ARI 42½ *

SF won wk6 32-20
normally I'd go with split but SF needs to win to hold onto #5 seed and play either CHI or GB
12/27 update: changed pick from SF/UNDER to ARI/UNDER

12/29 4:25 PM
329 KC 45 *under
330 SD -9½ *

SD won wk12 41-38
SD seems to have KC's number having won the past 3 games. KC can't really improve playoff position, but KC had a bad loss last week. 
KC resting players? QB Smith? RB Charles?
Since this is a late game, if BAL and MIA lose in their early Sunday matchups SD will control their playoff destiny with a win.

12/29 4:25 PM
331 STL 43 **UNDER**
332 SEA -10½ *

SEA won wk8 14-9
Thought about taking pts, but SEA lost last weekend to division rival ARI. I don't believe they'll lose two in a row, though they may not cover the double digit spread. They should be up for this game and are 15-2 vs STL. SEA does have incentive to play home games thru playoffs.

Tuesday, December 24, 2013

2013 - week 16 - results

NO @CAR, FOX, it's raining, sometimes it's just drenching field and stadium, surprisingly at times NO is able to run the ball vs CAR D. CAR O plays well in spots, most of the time not so good, but when it counts with the game's outcome on the line CAR O grabs the win. It's not to be NO year, CAR has completed their ascension this year to be NFC S champs.

DEN @HOU, oh yeah the CBS game, just a bore, HOU has been cooked, their last great hurrah was vs NE in week 13 when they lost by 3, since then their appears to be gas in the tank. These past two weeks they've lost be 3 scores.

NE @BAL, surprisingly one sided game for the visitor, BAL is toast

CHI @PHI, SNF, PHI came out and just dominated, CHI had no real answer even with the return of LB Briggs.

Other games of note, I should have taken IND as this was a sandwich game for KC, (prior week[week 15] and after week [week 17] games are division games for KC), also w/DEN winning at HOU, (as expected) KC could not improve it's play off position.

With the recent retirement announcements of WAS LB Fletcher and JAC C Meester, I picked on their final home games. The well respected player angle did work ATS, but not SU as WAS lost to DAL and JAC lost to TEN. We'll see about next week as well.

All in all, I could've done better ATS, but I hesitated in taking IND and was surprised by NYJ, NYG, CIN and ATL. I did fairly well for totals, but again I think I could've done better. One other thing of note were the warm DEC games @WAS, @PHI, @NYJ, @BAL. These games began in the 60's degree range, highly unusual.

2013 - week 16 - results

Thursday, December 19, 2013

2013 - week 16 - picks

things of note on top - streaks, other notables
*** no numbers for PIT @GB *** awaiting update
12/20 update: numbers posted

NYJ L2Y finish season 0-3
now 0-1

NE W/L 17-2 SU in DEC

HOU 0-12 SU streak

Since 1996, TEAMs which need a December to remember

Team W-L Pct. 
DET 17-52 .246  L
CLE 16-44 .267 L
OAK 24-49 .329 L
DAL 28-41 .406 L
BUF 29-42 .408 L 

***DEC week 1 all lost SU***

Team W-L Pct.
DET 17-53 .243  L
CLE 16-44 .262 L
OAK 24-50 .324 L
DAL 28-42 .400 L
BUF 29-43 .403  W

***DEC week 2 ONLY BUF won, all others lost***

Team W-L Pct.
DET  17-54 .239 ?
CLE 16-45 .262 ?
OAK 24-51 .320 ?
DAL 28-43 .394 ?
BUF 30-43 .411 ?

***DEC week 3 ?***

GB 14-3-1 vs division SU
this week, NONE

'SEA hangover' teams the week after playing SEA 
4-8-1 SU, 5-8 ATS
this week, NYG

SEA @home 14-0 SU
this week, vs ARI

NFC East 13-24 SU vs non-division opponents
this week, CHI @PHI, NYG @DET

TEAMS w/10 days rest 
15-17 SU
13-19 ATS
* indicates lost ATS
** indicates won ATS
TEAMS w/10 days rest (10Dr)
this week, SD, DEN


12/22 1:00 PM
101 MIA -3 ***
102 BUF 43 under

BUF won wk7 23-21
game blacked out locally
BUF QB Lewis starts (won wk7, 1-2 as starter this yr)
BUF WR Johnson OUT
BUF WR Graham starts?

12/22 1:00 PM
103 NO 46 under
104 CAR -3 ***

NO won wk14 13-31
NO LT Armstead starts (rookie)
NO K ?
CAR DE Johnson appears to be playing hurt since coming off injury

12/22 1:00 PM
105 DAL -3 under
106 WAS 53 ***

DAL won wk6 16-31
WAS LB Fletcher last home game 
(99% will retire endorses HC Shananhan)

12/22 1:00 PM
107 TB 43 under
108 STL -5 ***

LY STL won 28-13 @TB
TB maybe vulnerable on ST due to WR Shepard OUT
STL run O to test TB run D
if TB O continues w/check downs throws on 3rd and long, STL should win easily

12/22 8:30 PM
109 CHI 56 over
110 PHI -3 *

12/22 1:00 PM
111 CLE 41 *?*
112 NYJ -2 *OVER*

CLE TE Jordan OUT?
initially w/CLE injuries, I really was thinking NYJ, but I watched game rewind of NYJ and on O, they don't have much of a passing game. They'll need to win w/run O and D as well as ST. I just don't think NYJ is good enough at the skill positions to win. CLE is vastly underestimated by media and play well w/QB Campbell. I expect NYJ 2ndary to have a tough time and their ST will have miscues along w/O to give CLE the game.

12/22 1:00 PM
113 IND 44 OVER
114 KC -6½ *

LY IND won 20-13 @KC
sandwich game for KC, take pts?

12/22 1:00 PM
115 MIN 49 *
116 CIN -7 over

12/22 1:00 PM
117 DEN -10½ ***
118 HOU 52½ over?

DEN 10Dr
HOU RB Johnson starts (rookie)
HOU QB Schaub starts

12/22 1:00 PM
119 TEN -5 **OVER**
120 JAC 45 ***

JAC won wk10 29-27
JAC C Meester last home game
(will retire at end of season)
TEN nickel Sensabaugh OUT

12/22 4:05 PM
121 ARI 45 under
122 SEA -10 *

ARI WR Fitzgerald OUT?
SEA won wk7 34-22

12/22 4:05 PM
123 NYG 50½ under
124 DET -9½ *

will DET cover?

12/22 4:25 PM
125 OAK 51½ OVER
126 SD -10 ***

OAK won wk5 17-27
SD 10Dr

12/22 4:25 PM
127 PIT 45 **?
128 GB -2½ OVER

PIT LB Woodley OUT

12/22 4:25 PM
129 NE 45 over
130 BAL -1½ *

BAL win out and div champs
LY BAL won 30-31 vs NE

12/23 8:40 PM
131 ATL 45 UNDER
132 SF -12½ ****

ATL LB Weatherspoon OUT?
It's tough to take the points.
ATL in hindsight should've kept DE Abraham and CB Grimes
they are both doing well w/their new teams (ARI and MIA) this season.
Such key personnel decisions have made the rest of ATL personnel decisions questionable at best. Horrible at worst.
Will this be a goose egg game for ATL O, SF D?

2013 - week 15 - results

Late breaking news of some significance or not??
CHI QB Cutler to start, I'm just to lazy to change pick to CLE, but I'm tempted.
HOU practice w/referees, back to the basics, nice to see, since penalties have killed HOU chances one to many times this season.

TNF, SD @DEN, DEN starts out w/a TD again, really nice, but they cool off until the end when they heat up again. Many will point to DEN D as the "faulty part", but SD D really came on in Q2 and Q3. SD w/their O play really well and ST doing a decent job (well except for fumble) won this game with a team effort. Note: I think we're seeing more hurdles than ever, possibly due to emphasis on tackling rules in NFL.
I really point to SD D as being a key part of the win as UNDER the total won the money. SD D forced DEN O to punt on every possession in Q2 and Q3. The AFC S showed the way to beat Manning and Co. and the name of the game is called "keep away". Run the ball, win ToP (Time of possession) and force Manning to march down the field, nothing deep.
DEN D gets burned again by a premier QB (prior Brady) a pattern? Their other loss is to IND w/QB Luck and to me Luck is that good as long as he has a WR that can catch the ball.
DEN ST also made key errors in Q2 and Q3, fielding the ball inside the 10 in Q2 (should've just let the ball go and take the chance it bounces into the endzone for a touchback) and the penalty on 4th down which gave the ball back to SD. SD O proceeded to eat up more time and finally punted at mid-field.

FOX, SEA @NYG, I barely glanced at this game, and I did not watch...

CBS, NE @MIA, really interesting, MIA pulls out the win, despite a ST snapping snafu to the holder, he appears to be not ready or expecting the snap. One thing interesting for NE during the game was moving LG Mankins to LT, but it was not to be their day as the home team got the split in their series w/MIA. MIA D in particular even after losing DT Soliai still played really well.

FOX, GB @DAL, I just kept this up in the background, but did lots of household things that needed to be done, another why watch this game? I did hear Aikman w/an interesting comment w/Romo having all the time in world as GB D can't get pressure, so a lot of Aikman misses go back to accuracy issues.
OH MY, a second half to add to the lore of GB and the dismantling of 'boys, what a stunner. Just poor play calling IMO. DAL should have run the ball more, eat clock and thus GB would never have the chance to complete the comeback, but DAL outsmarted themselves again.

On this Sunday, home dog MIN gets a nice upset of PHI (odd how PHI chose not to do traditional KO, instead they chose to squib it and thus starting drives field position was an early x-mas gift from PHI to MIN, the other noticeable oddity was PHI RB McCoy had only eight carries, just two a quarter or maybe once a drive) and it appears STL at home will do the same to NO (just like '11 season, history repeats itself).

SNF, CIN @PIT, ouch! PIT comes out on fire, hits CIN in the mouth and they wilt, PIT ST really took it to CIN ST and KO'd CIN P Huber as well. I had expected something a little closer, but CIN has the little bro' mentality or that's what the announcer said (I think or as best as I can recall, lol).

I'm a bit late posting results, just plain forgot to do so. One thing that I've noticed for this past weekend - the NFC East was 0-fer SU/ATS. I did ok, just above .500 ATS and a break even .500 for totals

2013 - week 15 - results

Wednesday, December 11, 2013

2013 - week 15 - picks

NYJ L2Y finish season 0-3

NE W/L 17-1 SU in DEC,

HOU 0-11 SU streak

Since 1996, TEAMs which need a December to remember

Team W-L Pct. 
DET 17-52 .246  L
CLE 16-44 .267 L
OAK 24-49 .329 L
DAL 28-41 .406 L
BUF 29-42 .408 L 

all lost SU last weekend, drop that percentage even more

GB 14-3-1 vs division SU
this week, NONE

'SEA hangover' teams the week after playing SEA 
3-8-1 SU, 4-8 ATS
this week, SF

SEA @home 14-0 SU
this week, NONE

NFC East 13-20 SU vs non-division opponents
this week, WAS @ATL, SEA @NYG, PHI @MIN, GB @DAL

TEAMS w/10 days rest 
15-15 SU
13-17 ATS
* indicates lost ATS
** indicates won ATS
TEAMS w/10 days rest (10Dr)
this week, HOU, JAC

12/15 1:00 PM
305 WAS 51 over?
306 ATL -6 **

ATL has a running game, D is decent, O is suspect
ST advantage ATL?
ATL OC Koetter interviewing for college HC
WAS QB Cousins starts
ATL should win, but will they cover?

12/15 1:00 PM
307 SF -5½ *
308 TB 41 under

12/15 4:25 PM
309 ARI -3 ***
310 TEN 41½ over

ARI FS Mathieu OUT
TEN QB Fitzpatrick has accuracy issues w/o TE Walker in the line up. 
TEN D still plays fairly well, it's their O that will sputter for a half and that means they will likely lose this home game vs an ARI D that is playing really well and an O that can move the ball. 
TEN ST returns are better, but coverage is lacking, advantage ARI
This game means more to ARI than to TEN for the playoffs, but TEN coaching staff and players have been put on 'notice', they'll be playing to keep their jobs this weekend.

12/15 4:25 PM
311 NO -5½ *
312 STL 48 under

12/15 1:00 PM
313 SEA -7 *
314 NYG 41 over


12/15 1:00 PM
315 CHI 43 *
316 CLE -2½ ****OVER****

CLE QB Campbell starts, the team believes

12/15 1:00 PM
317 HOU 45½ **
318 IND -6 under

HOU 10Dr
IND won wk09 27-24

12/15 1:00 PM
319 BUF -1½ over
320 JAC 43 ***

BUF last week post game led by players
JAC 10Dr

12/15 1:00 PM
321 NE -2½ over
322 MIA 45½ *

NE TE Gronkowski OUT
NE won wk8 27-17

12/15 1:00 PM
323 PHI -4½ *
324 MIN 51½ UNDER?

MIN RB Peterson OUT

12/15 4:05 PM
325 NYJ 41 UNDER
326 CAR -10½ *

NYJ CB Cromartie OUT?
CAR should win, will they cover?
12/15 4:05 PM
327 KC -4 *
328 OAK 41 OVER

12/15 4:25 PM
329 GB 48½ under
330 DAL -7 *

GB a FG team, until TDs are more prevalent and QB Flynn acquires a much better touch in RZ

12/15 8:30 PM
331 CIN -3 *OVER*
332 PIT 40½ *

CIN won wk2 20-10

12/16 8:40 PM
333 BAL 48½ *
334 DET -6 over

DET RB Bush D2D(Day-to-Day)

2013 - week 15 - Thursday - picks

I'm thinking.... SD/Over combo
12/12 8:25 PM
301 SD 55 *
302 DEN -10½ over

DEN won wk 10 28-20

2013 - week 15 - GRIDs

QB Rating:

2013 - week 15 - GRID - QB rating
for clarity
NE 8.6, MIA 8.4
CIN 11, PIT 10
BAL -3.8, CLE -2.1
SD 7.1, KC 5.9

Team scoring efficiency:

2013 - week 15 - GRID - efficiency

The differences:
AFC North, PIT is ahead of BAL w/QB rating, but behind with scoring efficiency
AFC South, IND and TEN have flip flopped positions as well
NFC North, CHI is tops in their division w/QB rating and is 2nd w/scoring efficiency, DET is 2nd w/QB rating and is 3rd w/scoring efficiency, GB is 3rd w/QB rating and is 1st w/scoring efficiency.

So for the playoffs the NFC North is likely to be represented by CHI. I'm expecting a DET collapse and GB just doesn't have enough w/o QB Rogers.

IND who has backdoored (did not win their game) their way into their division championship this past weekend will be the easiest of home field opponents for either MIA, BAL or KC.

BAL is in the drivers seat for #6 seed in the AFC, but MIA has been playing well these past three games and winning in the cold (sub freezing and snow) at PIT last weekend, really puts them on my radar. BAL was a bit lucky last weekend vs MIN, maybe their luck holds thru DEC, if not MIA is in.

Again these are cumulative totals for the season and are derived from the O performance subtracted from the D performance to arrive at a number that seems to represent the strength of the team.

For QB rating, I take each games QB rating and subtract one from the other to arrive at a number. If two or more QBs played during the game I take their total number. You'll find the QB ratings in the GameBook.pdf file available for download after each game at nfl.com

For Team Scoring Efficiency, I take each drive/possession and it's outcome and divide the scoring drives from the total number of possessions. I do take into account punt returns and kick returns for TD as scoring drives/possessions. From my point of view each possession by a team is an opportunity to score.
I then take O possession/performance and subtract from D possession/performance to arrive at a number that seems to indicate the strength of that team. The higher the positive percentage the better the team is at scoring and winning games.

Perhaps later on I may institute a more recent indicator covering the past 4 weeks, rather than just a season long cumulative total which can be deceptive while reviewing a teams recent performance.

Monday, December 09, 2013

2013 - week 14 results

Game Notes:
TNF, HOU @JAC, JAC gets a 2TD lead and HOU really looks they're just playing out the string. Even when late in Q4 HOU has the ball inside the 20 and they go for it on 4th down, I thought they were highly predictable. HOU Schaub subs for Keenum, but the end result of the game is the same... JAC gets the series sweep, let me say that again... JAC gets the series sweep   HOU is in the tank and can't come out...
should've taken the home dog, though I was correct on the total.
UPDATE: HOU HC Kubiak fired

CBS, IND @CIN, cold, no wind, no snow - IND O seems to have issues, CIN O marches down and scores a TD, not really effective on 1st down, but 2nd & 3rd downs moving the chains. CIN D is controlling LoS. IND WR's drops are a continuing issue since their WR #1 was injured and OFY. IND will need luck to win this game.

FOX, DET @PHI, after trading punts in a "snow dump", DET RB Bell fumbles on PHI LB Thornton hit/tackle. Advantage PHI? though PHI ST seems to be having issues returning and punting ball. DET gets the ball again and gets long gains on nice throws/catches. DET fumbles again, this time inside the 20, ouch!
PHI punts again, DET D is dominating and get an int, DET O moving the ball and finally get the TD and a 2pt PAT, PHI secondary can be picked on and DET looks like they'll win. End of Q2 and PHI goes for it on 4th and 7 to go inside of the 20, just kick the FG, it can be done! Really questionable play calling IMO. DET leads 8-0 @half.

Looks like snow for PHI, WAS, BAL none @NE, @NYJ, @CIN. Scoreboard watching and KC is dominating, NYJ @home is way ahead of OAK, TB @home has a 2TD lead on BUF and highly surprising is CLE 6-0 lead @NE, and not so surprising is ATL 21-10 lead @GB (I should have stuck w/initial thoughts on taking ATL, also of note 1st game to half time, indicates running game), MIA has a FG lead @PIT and reports out of MIN @BAL have MIN RB Peterson inj'd in Q2.

So I'm cooking from the half and when I return it's Q4 DET @PHI and PHI RB McCoy rips along TD run and PHI goes for a 2pt PAT. Scoreboard check and MIN is leading BAL 12-7, GB now leads 22-21 vs ATL, PIT leads 28-24 and CLE continues to lead NE 19-11. My fish soup taste really good in this cold weather here in Vegas. 4th and goal for PHI, DET appears to have an advantage w/the cleared snow for the goal line identification, but PHI OL get great push and out muscle DET formidable front 7 and get the TD, but miss the 2pt PAT conversion. DET drives down to about the 20yd line and the next play QB Stafford fumbles the snap and PHI recovers... should I say it? same ol' Lions...

Noted: Q3 injury update NE TE Gronk out of game. And wouldn't you know it NE gets another comeback win @home vs CLE

FOX, SEA @SF, TD's vs FG's that's really the difference in the 1st half as SEA scores TD's and SF scores FG's. This may seem to simplistic, but that's what I see. Update: SF gets the win, they are a bit more efficient scoring, but there seems to be a bit of home cooking by the refs....

SNOW games:
MIN @BAL 26-29
MIA @PIT 34-28
DET @PHI 20-34
KC @WAS 45-10

Noticed the totals for all SNOW games were greater than 53 pts, thats >53pts or 53+pts, just betting the overs would be 3-0-1(W-L-P), the push comes with DET @PHI game, still winning 6.5 to 1 odds (6.5:1) is nice ($10 wins $65). In this case a 4 pick of OVER the totals would be reduced to a 3 pick payout, since a push (tie) returns the original bet. FYI a 4 pick normally pays around 12:1 or 11:1, I've seen more 13:1 and less 10:1.
acckkk.... update, ATL @GB 21-22 also should be a SNOW game, but it didn't go over the total, maybe because it was too cold, with a wind chill of -1 and game start temperature of 9 degrees, with winds gusting up to 15mph. An interesting view of the subterrain for the 'frozen tundra' @Lambeau Field. I think GB lost their advantage once, this field warming technology has been in place for several years now (I think).

MIA a warm weather team bucked the trend and won in below freezing temperatures (wind chill 16 degrees, temperature 25 degrees, snow on field and snowed during the game). I picked MIA on two factors, they had been playing better these past few games and PIT had an OL shuffle issue for this game.

Though the dome teams (HOU, MIN, DET, IND, ATL) lost SU at outdoor games, MIN and ATL won ATS. Interestingly enough dome teams at home won in convincing fashion this weekend (ARI and NO).
Only KC and MIA were road warriors this weekend, getting wins at WAS and at PIT.

Weekend results:

Yeah, I did much better this week than the past few weeks of not watching and 'moving house'.
The MIN/BAL game is highly interesting and a bit like an AFL game in that the final minute of the second half had a lot of scoring. It's as if the coaching staffs were holding back their best plays until the final minutes of the game and thus 6TD's are scored in Q4 thus producing a winner for OVER the total and MIN stayed within a FG for most of the game while on the road. MIN did this even with the loss of RB Peterson in Q3, this game turned out to be far closer than expected for me.

CLE @NE, I had seen an earlier 'blurb' where CLE previous game vs NE ended up with another ATS win for them. So CLE is now 2-0 ATS vs NE in the past ?8? years. CLE should've won the game. I could've changed my original pick with the announcement of CLE QB Campbell starting, but I decided to just leave my pick alone.

ATL @GB, I had forgotten that the frozen tundra of Lambeau Field is no longer frozen since the advent of field warming technology. You could actually see steam rising from the ground via the game video and their was a short mention of the field during the broadcast. ATL came out running the ball and controlled the first half defensively. In the 2nd half, GB was the better team and got the win. GB D held ATL scoreless and GB O scored three times (2 FG's 1TD). ATL had a chance but couldn't put up any score in the second half, they really miss John Abraham.
2013 - week 14 - results

Saturday, December 07, 2013

2013 - week 14 - picks

Looks like a cold weather weekend, so running teams should be favored and dominate DL as well. I'm not really confident on my picks. I already have been toasted on TNF, so I need to watch more games, (if settling into my new place really lets me).

NE W/L 16-1 SU in DEC

HOU 0-10 SU streak, now 0-11

Since 1996, TEAMs which need a December to remember

Team W-L Pct. 
DET 17-52 .246 
CLE 16-44 .267
OAK 24-49 .329
DAL 28-41 .406
BUF 29-42 .408 

GB 14-3-1 vs division SU
this week, NONE

'SEA hangover' teams the week after playing SEA 2-8-1 SU, 3-8 ATS
this week, NO

SEA @home 14-0 SU
this week, NONE

NFC East 12-17 SU vs non-division opponents
this week, KC @WAS, DAL @CHI, DET @PHI, NYG @SD

TEAMS w/10 days rest 13-11 ATS/SU
* indicates lost ATS
** indicates won ATS
TEAMS w/10 days rest (10Dr)
this week, GB, DET, OAK, DAK, PIT, BAL

12/08 1:00 PM
131 KC -3 **
132 WAS 45 over

WAS ref's err'd last week vs NYG (1st down 'flub')
WAS O is an issue, WAS D not much better
WC 22

12/08 1:00 PM
133 MIN 43 *under
134 BAL -6½ *

MIN may need double digits to cover, total seems to be the better bet
MIN QB Cassel starts?
WC 20

12/08 1:00 PM
135 CLE 44½ UNDER
136 NE -11½ ***

CLE O woe is me, alas says the CLE D
CLE QB Campbell starts
shouldn't this be NE -21½?
WC 19

12/08 1:00 PM
137 OAK 40½ *
138 NYJ -3 over

NYJ O has stagnated due to play calling
OAK has a real chance to win this game
WC 29
OAK 10Dr

12/08 1:00 PM
139 IND 43½ under
140 CIN -6 ***

IND inj's to OL, DL and ST
CIN D getting healthier
WC 20

12/08 8:30 PM
141 CAR 46 UNDER
142 NO -3½ *

1st game of division series
flexed to SNF, should be an interesting game

12/08 1:00 PM
143 DET 54 UNDER
144 PHI -2½ ***

DET on the road will need to get really lucky or disciplined to win
WC 22
DET 10Dr

12/08 1:00 PM
145 MIA 40½ ***
146 PIT -3 under

WC 19, normally I'd take the 'cold weather' team, but PIT has OL issues and MIA has a dominant DL
PIT 10Dr

12/08 1:00 PM
147 BUF 43 *over
148 TB -2½ *

BUF should've won last week @home '@Toronto', this should be officially a no play(bet) game. I don't have a good feel for either team

12/08 4:05 PM
149 TEN 50 *
150 DEN -12 over

TEN says refs erred 3x last week @IND
WC 5 degree

12/08 4:25 PM
151 STL 41½ under
152 ARI -6½ **

STL C Barnes (1st start)
ARI feels as if they were robbed last week @PHI by refs
STL won wk1 27-24
ARI has not won a division game L2Y

12/08 4:25 PM
153 NYG 47½ over
154 SD -3 *

12/08 4:25 PM
155 SEA 41½ under
156 SF -3 *

SEA won wk2 29-3

12/08 1:00 PM
157 ATL 45 *over 
158 GB -3 *

wanting to choose ATL, but this is @GB, WC 17 degrees, the better running game should win
GB 10Dr

12/09 8:40 PM
159 DAL 48 over
160 CHI -1 *

DAL has yet to string 3 wins in a row this season
CHI has yet to lose 3 in a row this season
DAL 10Dr

Thursday, December 05, 2013

2013 - week 14 - Thursday picks

this is not a game most people would watch, HOU is on a long losing streak and lost @home to JAC in week12, so motivation should be on HOU side, yes even on the road, the series split is more likely to occur than the series sweep
12/05 8:25 PM
101 HOU -3 **
102 JAC 43½ OVER 

JAC won week12 13-6

Tuesday, December 03, 2013

2013 - GRIDs - week 14

2013 GRID week 14 efficiency
Compared to week 11 GRIDs,

AFC East
 NE -2%, MIA +3%, BUF +3%, NYJ -7%

AFC North
 CIN +2%, BAL +5%, PIT +1%, CLE -2%

AFC South
 IND -3%, TEN -4%, HOU +1%, JAC +6%

AFC West
 DEN -1%, SD -1%, KC -6%, OAK 0%

NFC East
 PHI +2%, DAL +1%, NYG +4%, WAS -3%

NFC North
 GB -8%, DET +3%, CHI -3%, MIN +3%

NFC South
 CAR -1%, NO -7%, TB +1%, ATL +3%

NFC West
 SEA +2%, SF 0%, ARI +6%, STL -1%

The highlighted pink indicates the biggest drop this past weekend (NO and GB). No team made an appreciable jump beyond 3%, though MIA, JAC and DET did record a 3% increase from last weekend

2013 GRID week 14 QB rtg

KC, DAL and DET has dropped into mid tier (12-22 ranking),
MIA,PIT, and CHI has risen into top tier (1-11 ranking)
TB has risen into mid tier (12-22 ranking)
HOU has dropped into bottom tier (23-32 ranking)
note: I noticed I should've had BAL in 2nd tier for week 11 GRID, sigh...

All this movement seems to coincide w/each teams winning SU this past month. We'll see who can keep it up for the last month of the regular season.

2013 - week 13 - results

TNF, GB @DET, watched from mid Q2 to half, DET D playing really well, DET O getting stymied at times, but DET doesn't look like they'll lose at home. Wish I had checked if this was the 2nd games of division series, I would have taken DET for series split, but too late and I was really tired, night prior to game and instinct was off for side, and ok for totals

TNF, OAK @DAL, every preseason, OAK and DAL would hold a joint practice, so their is a familiarity. OAK also has a tendency to be a 1st half team, this held true for thus game. DAL did not get the cover and the 1st half was over the total (so did the whole game)

TNF, PIT @BAL, should've taken dog/pts due to intensity of rivalry, the series split did occur, it's just that BAL did not cover. At the end of the 1st half (10-0 BAL) you'd have thought the total would stay under for the game, but both of these teams are looking like 2nd half teams and the over occurred.

TNF, home teams won SU, but only DET covered ATS, totals ended up 2-0-1. It'll be tough for GB to get a playoff spot with either CAR or NO in one spot and likely either SF or ARI in the other wildcard spot. DET controls it's fate for the rest of the season. DAL is also in a tough spot for a playoff berth, but not as tough as GB. In the AFC, I wonder if PIT can make it into playoffs, it's likely KC will be in one spot and the other may go to SD or BAL. If CIN falls back to the pack, PIT will still have a tough time to gain a playoff berth. TEN may have a better chance than PIT due to schedule, but the 6th spot is up in the air a bit more than in the NFC.

NE @HOU, turns out to be an interesting game as HOU puts up a fight, but it's not enough as NE proves to be too much.

DEN @KC, KC has a good first half, DEN has a better second half and gets the sweep

SNF, NYG @WAS, NYG D gets in gear after Q1 and secures the win.

It was SWEEPS weekend as CAR swept TB, IND swept TEN and DEN swept KC.

As you can see below from the results, since I did watch any games for two weeks, it really does affect picks, well at least for me....

2013 - week 13 - results