2013 - week 15 - GRIDs

QB Rating:

2013 - week 15 - GRID - QB rating

for clarity - 
NE 8.6, MIA 8.4
CIN 11, PIT 10
BAL -3.8, CLE -2.1
SD 7.1, KC 5.9



Team scoring efficiency:

2013 - week 15 - GRID - efficiency

The differences:
AFC North, PIT is ahead of BAL w/QB rating, but behind with scoring efficiency
AFC South, IND and TEN have flip flopped positions as well
NFC North, CHI is tops in their division w/QB rating and is 2nd w/scoring efficiency, DET is 2nd w/QB rating and is 3rd w/scoring efficiency, GB is 3rd w/QB rating and is 1st w/scoring efficiency.

So for the playoffs the NFC North is likely to be represented by CHI. I'm expecting a DET collapse and GB just doesn't have enough w/o QB Rogers.

IND who has backdoored (did not win their game) their way into their division championship this past weekend will be the easiest of home field opponents for either MIA, BAL or KC.

BAL is in the drivers seat for #6 seed in the AFC, but MIA has been playing well these past three games and winning in the cold (sub freezing and snow) at PIT last weekend, really puts them on my radar. BAL was a bit lucky last weekend vs MIN, maybe their luck holds thru DEC, if not MIA is in.

FYI:
Again these are cumulative totals for the season and are derived from the O performance subtracted from the D performance to arrive at a number that seems to represent the strength of the team.

For QB rating, I take each games QB rating and subtract one from the other to arrive at a number. If two or more QBs played during the game I take their total number. You'll find the QB ratings in the GameBook.pdf file available for download after each game at nfl.com

For Team Scoring Efficiency, I take each drive/possession and it's outcome and divide the scoring drives from the total number of possessions. I do take into account punt returns and kick returns for TD as scoring drives/possessions. From my point of view each possession by a team is an opportunity to score.
I then take O possession/performance and subtract from D possession/performance to arrive at a number that seems to indicate the strength of that team. The higher the positive percentage the better the team is at scoring and winning games.

Perhaps later on I may institute a more recent indicator covering the past 4 weeks, rather than just a season long cumulative total which can be deceptive while reviewing a teams recent performance.

2013 - GRIDs - week 14

2013 GRID week 14 efficiency

Compared to week 11 GRIDs,

AFC East
 NE -2%, MIA +3%, BUF +3%, NYJ -7%

AFC North
 CIN +2%, BAL +5%, PIT +1%, CLE -2%

AFC South
 IND -3%, TEN -4%, HOU +1%, JAC +6%

AFC West
 DEN -1%, SD -1%, KC -6%, OAK 0%

NFC East
 PHI +2%, DAL +1%, NYG +4%, WAS -3%

NFC North
 GB -8%, DET +3%, CHI -3%, MIN +3%

NFC South
 CAR -1%, NO -7%, TB +1%, ATL +3%

NFC West
 SEA +2%, SF 0%, ARI +6%, STL -1%

The highlighted pink indicates the biggest drop this past weekend (NO and GB). No team made an appreciable jump beyond 3%, though MIA, JAC and DET did record a 3% increase from last weekend

2013 GRID week 14 QB rtg

KC, DAL and DET has dropped into mid tier (12-22 ranking),
MIA,PIT, and CHI has risen into top tier (1-11 ranking)
TB has risen into mid tier (12-22 ranking)
HOU has dropped into bottom tier (23-32 ranking)
note: I noticed I should've had BAL in 2nd tier for week 11 GRID, sigh...


All this movement seems to coincide w/each teams winning SU this past month. We'll see who can keep it up for the last month of the regular season.

2013 - week 11 - GRIDs - Efficiency and QB rating differential

This week I decided to add both GRID as I've noticed that they both have revelance these past few weeks.

2013 - week 11 - GRID - Efficiency

2013 - week 11 - GRID - QB rating differential

Here's what I've noticed in my tracking of predicting wins SU. The QB Rating Differential seems to be better at a rate of about 2-4 games per week. For the majority of picks they will agree, but where they differ is where QB Rating Differential shines as it continues to out pick the Efficiency GRID.

The Efficiency GRID has captured the demise of ATL better in my opinion. Though they are both accumulative of the season, the Efficiency GRID has shown a greater decline and thus ranks ATL below TB, instead of above TB as the QB Rating Differential has done.

You'll also note the great rise that PHI and is now considerably ahead of DAL in the QBR GRID vs the equal billing that the Efficiency GRID has them at the moment.

IND has also taken a great fall w/o their #1 WR Wayne in the QB rating differential.

In general those teams that have a good QB are better to follow w/QB Rating Differential and those teams that depend on their D, their ST and a run game are much more predictable with the Efficiency GRID. The problem lies when you have to choose a team in a game and they are more predictable w/a different GRID. It then becomes a toss of the coin, or if their is a distraction (drama), I'll use that as a deciding factor. I've even gone back to the basics of too many injuries to overcome for a team to use as a deciding factor.

Below is a simple text output of predicting outcomes for week 11 games:

QBRating Differential
road roadO-D home homeO-D predict DIF
IND 7.975 TEN 13.96 TEN 5.985 ?
NYJ -32.525 BUF 2.68 BUF 35.205
ATL -23.425 TB -22.6 TB 0.825
DET 12.88 PIT 7.05 DET -5.83 ?
WAS -20.98 PHI -26.6 WAS -5.62
SD 2.28 MIA 15.225 MIA 12.945 ?
BAL -25.36 CHI 13.18 CHI 38.54
CLE -17.8 CIN 38.25 CIN 56.05
OAK -27.8 HOU -4.275 HOU 23.525
ARI -16.575 JAC -49.575 ARI -33
KC 30.2 DEN 43.1 DEN 12.9
MIN -25.875 SEA 35.725 SEA 61.6
SF 12.125 NO 59.7 NO 47.575
GB -12.85 NYG -6.175 NYG 6.675 ?
NE -12.075 CAR 23.825 CAR 35.9

Efficiency
road RO-Deff home HO-Deff predict DIF
IND 17% TEN 2% IND -14.77% ?
NYJ -7% BUF -5% BUF 2.13%
ATL -15% TB -12% TB 3.42%
DET -10% PIT -1% PIT 8.67% ?
WAS -9% PHI -18% WAS -9.36%
SD -1% MIA -8% SD -7.40% ?
BAL -4% CHI -0% CHI 4.25%
CLE -8% CIN 10% CIN 17.62%
OAK -13% HOU -6% HOU 6.32%
ARI -18% JAC -30% ARI -11.93%
KC 14% DEN 22% DEN 8.22%
MIN -13% SEA 21% SEA 34.21%
SF 8% NO 27% NO 18.97%
GB 9% NYG -1% GB -10.12% ?
NE 4% CAR 21% CAR 17.11%

diff
IND @TEN
DET @PIT
SD @MIA
GB @NYG

As you note above their are four games which the GRIDs differ in predicting the outcome, we'll see which GRID is right and wrong.

One other thing, the text output is partially based on the GRID, the GRIDs themselves show the seasons accumulative effects. At this point of the season, I modified the text output to only measure a road team and its road record vs a home team and its home record, thus the numbers in the text are not the same as you see in the GRID. I do this because their are teams that have a greater or lesser tendency to produce on the road vs at home. Most of the time the GRID will predict the same outcome as the simple text output, but their are times when they will differ.

Teams that are 'Better on the road' (as measured w/QB rating differential):
IND, JAC, SD, KC, PHI, DET, MIN, TB, SF, STL

2013 - week 10 - GRID 10 efficiency

This past 'Hell-o-ween' weekend also killed the efficiency GRID predictions as compared to the QBrating GRID (that I still do just not posting for 'net consumption)

here's a snapshot of results from this past weekend:

qb rtg
R RO-D H HO-D Predi Dif
CIN 0.75 MIA 7.9 MIA 7.15
ATL -31.9 CAR 32.4333 CAR 64.333333
MIN -32.033 DAL 18.025 DAL 50.058333 (did not cover ATS)
NO 1.43333 NYJ -4.725 NO -6.158333 X
TEN -12.967 STL -6.9333 STL 6.0333333 X
KC 32.8333 BUF 8.925 KC -23.90833
SD 4.075 WAS -7 SD -11.075  X
PHI 20.925 OAK -4.8 PHI -25.725
TB -35.6 SEA 61.7667 SEA 97.366667 (did not cover ATS)
BAL -24.2 CLE 7.875 CLE 32.075
PIT 17.275 NE 22.375 NE 5.1
IND 20.8333 HOU -15.9 IND -36.73333
CHI -18.133 GB 42.6667 GB 60.8  X

my own efficiency
road RO-D ef home HO-D ef predicts DIF
CIN -0% MIA -10% CIN -0.092486 X
ATL -9% CAR 17% CAR 0.2618816
MIN -15% DAL 10% DAL 0.2445124 (did not cover ATS)
NO 16% NYJ -3% NO -0.191044 X
TEN 2% STL 7% STL 0.0490143 X
KC 17% BUF -5% KC -0.216063
SD 1% WAS -7% SD -0.086371 X
PHI 7% OAK 5% PHI -0.01066
TB -15% SEA 25% SEA 0.4008751 (did not cover ATS)
BAL -4% CLE -6% BAL -0.019247 X
PIT 0% NE 16% NE 0.1550626
IND 20% HOU -5% IND -0.25594
CHI -5% GB 30% GB 0.3464591 X

dif for:
CIN @MIA
BAL @CLE

X = WRONG

As you can see it's 4 wrong vs 6 wrong, those two different choices by QBrating were spot on.

The errors;
 NO @NYJ - NYJ stuck to alternating W's and L's
TEN @STL - I guess I need to factor in new QB's better, but how?
SD @WAS - officiating and play calling were bigger factors than ST and WAS QB Griffin accuracy
CHI @GB - key injury to GB QB Rodgers in Q1


This week's GRID is interesting as some of the top teams are falling back to the pack.

2013 - week 10 - GRID - efficiency

I separated the teams by top 15%, mid 9% and bottom 15%. Granted I could have thinned the middle out by going to only 4%, but PIT, HOU, NYG, and WAS all have a chance at a .500 season and MIA, CLE and OAK have an even better chance. So I gave them all a chance at getting to .500 for the season.

NYJ and DET appears to be an anomaly w/less than 0% O-D efficiency. I think this is because that when they lose, they lose big and when they win, they don't win by a large margin in efficiency, thus they'll be less than 0% until there W/L habits change.

notable movers for the past month:
MIN is down 6%
SEA is down 5%
NO is down 5%
PHI is down 5% (even with their huge win this past weekend @OAK)
ATL down 4%

NYG is up 14%
CAR is up 5%
CIN is up 5%
SF is up 4%
HOU is up 4%

2013 - week 09 - GRID - efficiency

The biggest mover is NYG up +6% from last week, PHI also had a big move, but it was down -5%

2013 - week 09 - GRID - efficiency

2013 - GRID - "new" - efficiency - week 08

2013 - GRID - week 08 - efficiency

I've been trying out another GRID ranking for a couple of weeks and the above essentially takes Offense scoring efficiency (as a percentage) subtracted from Defense scoring efficiency. That gap between Offense and Defense appears to be a very good indicator of a teams strength.

You'll notice above that their are 13 teams above 0%, which means the majority of NFL teams (19) are below 0%. This seems to be how good/bad NFL teams are this year (well at least for this week, now I'm thinking I wish I had tracked this from week 1).

The division with the greatest parity appears to be the AFC North where an 8% gap exists between the top (CIN) and bottom (CLE) teams. The division with the greatest disparity (33%) is the AFC South and NFC South.

This GRID ranking is an accumulative ranking mean the whole season counts, not just a couple of weeks.

Eleven teams (or slightly more than 1/3 of NFL teams) are between +4% and -4%. There are ten teams above +4% and eleven teams below -4%.

I guess this is somewhat of a better GRID, though I think CAR maybe a bit high.

The strongest division appears to be in the AFC west. The weakest (IMO), the AFC North and NFC East, though an argument could be made for other divisions as well (AFC South w/JAC is a doozy).