Tuesday, February 11, 2014

just a thought on futures aka total wins

I read this article Pythagenpat Records in 2013 and it occurred to me that perhaps the sportsbooks are using something similiar when they post their season total over/under wins for each team prior to the regular season.

I wish I had the time to check prior years as well as verify/disqualify some of my other thoughts as well.

Namely those teams that over or under achieve each season since the realignment to 32 teams and their W/L record the following season.

It's also interesting in the article that Brady, Manning and now Luck have all done better than predicted by the mathematical model, but their is no mention of Rodgers, Brees. It would be nice to see what the model predicted by team w/a QB notation (though I do realize that for some teams, their should be a QB/QB/QB notation, due to injuries, HC decision etc)

Sunday, February 02, 2014

2013 - week 21 - Super Bowl XLVIII (48) - results

WOW a blow out for SEA 43-8, just a dominating performance, by the end of Q1 it was clear SEA D was in control and DEN O was mistake prone, who'd have thought the younger team had the poise and clearly won the majority of their battles. SEA D ended up w/2 ints and 3 forced fumbles, they will be remembered for a spectacular performance, jut like Bruno Mars and the half time show.

SEA D caused DEN O to end their first four drives on a safety, punt (3-and-out), interception and interception returned for a TD. SEA led 8-0 at the end of Q1, 22-0 at the end of Q2 and 36-8 at the end of Q3.

SEA D and ST put the exclamation points on the game w/a Q2 intrTD and Q3 krTD. When DEN did not go for it on 4th down in Q3 the game was conceded IMO. I had projected a 10 possession game for each team, thus in Q3 DEN down 0-29 and they didn't go for it on 4th, the question became would DEN be goose egged by SEA D. DEN did score once at the end of Q3, but SEA was clearly in control, even letting RB Turbin play the entire Q4. SEA secondary depth came thru when CB Sherman injured his ankle. I was a bit surprised to see SEA LB Wright play and play very well. SEA WR Harvin also turned in a stellar performance coming off an injury.

So I ended up goose egged for SB, 0-fer, sigh....
Playoffs overall record ATS 6-4-1 totals 7-4

One other comment I was correct in that DEN D could control SEA run O, but SEA O won on 3rd down, SEA QB Wilson played very smart, even though he wasn't as accurate as he could be and they were bogged down in the red zone twice early in the game, he kept the chains moving and they finished off drives with scores. SEA finished their first half drives w/FG, FG, TD and end of half possession. SEA O first punt occurred in Q3 and they just ran out the clock in Q4 giving up the ball on downs twice. SEA O also scored 2 TD's off of DEN TO's the same as their D.

My guess is Manning will be known as a choker in the big one.