NFL 2017 regular season total wins - and more...

The LVRJ had a fairly recent post see:
https://www.reviewjournal.com/sports/betting/here-are-the-nfl-2017-regular-season-win-totals/

as well as this: http://www.oddsshark.com/nfl/2017-nfl-season-win-totals

there's also season props here:
http://www.oddsshark.com/nfl/2017-nfl-season-props


With the recent news of NYJ overhaul/rebuilding that 5.5 win season total win is mighty high.
Reviewing this upcoming season games for NYJ, I would guess that their weakness opponents are JAC (week 4 @home) and CLE (week 5 on the road). They also play BUF (week 1 on the road and week 9 @home). Another team I think they might have a chance are @DEN(week 14) and vs SD (week 16). But the more I look at it, the more I think they have a chance of going 0-fer.
Going 0-fer pays 1400-to-1 at oddsshark.

I'd place $ on under the season win total of 5.5 for the NYJ  and if you can find an 0-fer bet I bet on it occuring this season, particularly since the teams that NYJ have a chance of beating all appear to better. In some cases, like JAC and DEN their D will likely hold NYJ to a FG or two.
BUF may just run them over and SD at the end of the season may still be in the playoff hunt and likely not concede anything to NYJ.

just a thought on futures aka total wins

I read this article Pythagenpat Records in 2013 and it occurred to me that perhaps the sportsbooks are using something similiar when they post their season total over/under wins for each team prior to the regular season.

I wish I had the time to check prior years as well as verify/disqualify some of my other thoughts as well.

Namely those teams that over or under achieve each season since the realignment to 32 teams and their W/L record the following season.

It's also interesting in the article that Brady, Manning and now Luck have all done better than predicted by the mathematical model, but their is no mention of Rodgers, Brees. It would be nice to see what the model predicted by team w/a QB notation (though I do realize that for some teams, their should be a QB/QB/QB notation, due to injuries, HC decision etc)