Friday, August 29, 2014

2014 - Preseason - week 3 and 4 - results

I don't expect much from preseason due to the varying approaches head coaches will have in preparing their team for the regular season.

For Preseason week 3, I ended up 7-9 ATS and 4-11-1 for Totals

For Preseason week 4, I ended up 8-6-2 ATS and an identical 8-6-2 for Totals

For all of preseason, my record for picks is 33-30-2 ATS and 30-32-2 for Totals, not bad, but not good either. I guess that's fairly consistent for preseason. That's why most bettors won't bet during preseason, their needs to be a really good reason or an 'angle' or two to even think that you have a chance of winning...

Missing storylines for 2014 or I'm making them up right now...

Over at, there's a nice article for things to watch for this season -

and I really like it, but it's missing something and that maybe is a predictive outlook from events that have occurred during the off season until now.

The team that jumps out to me is SF, w/the recent suspension of DE/LB Aldon Smith for 9 games, the unavailability of LB Bowman for at least 6 games (much more likely 10-12 games), and the ineffectiveness of the SF offense in preseason, I suspect SF will not reach 10 wins this year.

In fact they may lose their first game of the season @DAL, due to an offense that can't score and a D that can't contain without their All-Pro players. Sure DAL D looks really weak this season, but their O appears to be the best they have had for several seasons. DAL is known to swoon in DEC, not in SEPT. This should be an interesting opener for DAL and SF.

ARI may pull into the #2 slot of the NFC West despite all the unfavorable things that have occurred during the off season. Yes Dockett with his season ending injury and LB Washington with his suspension appears to be eerily similar to SF. That leaves perhaps STL with a window of opportunity and for their well travelled QB Shaun Hill. STL played well at times for the past couple of seasons, but untimely penalties really hampered their efforts. If their youthful players can get into a better mindset, I would believe they will make the ascent to at least the #2 position in the NFC West and perhaps a playoff spot

Another team, that may ascend or descend is ATL. Last season injuries really derailed this team, this season they appear to be much healthier and may challenge NO (who appears to be the top dog in NFC South, due to CAR O looking like a work in progress).

Earlier prior to training camp, I was thinking TB would be on the upswing as well, except this preseason, their OL appears to have some real issues. Though they have recently traded for All-Pro LG Mankins, will this be enough? They also picked up a guard from KC (presumably for RG), but they haven't had time to gell together (due to lateness of acquisitions), which would lead me to believe that TB could be 0-4 (vs CAR, vs STL, @ATL, @PIT) at the start of this season.

It's hard to believe that either NYG will be any better this year, NYJ seems to be in the same realm and I'm afraid the other NY team, BUF, will also be struggling due to O woes. You could also categorize the teams from Florida in this manner as well. JAC, MIA and TB appear to have a better than average defense, but their offense lack that scoring ability with a QB-WR or QB-TE that is insync. They may all need to rely on a running game and here the nod may go to TB or perhaps even JAC over MIA for a decent running game.
California is the only other state with 3 NFL teams and OAK, SF and SD all appear to have issues. OAK may be the bottom of the barrel this year. SD does have an offense, but recent injuries to defense, leads me to believe they'll need to win high scoring games. SF appears ready for the downslope trend, but I may be exaggerating their demise to soon...

just a few thoughts on this upcoming season....

Thursday, August 28, 2014

2014 - Preseason - week 4 - picks

oh well here goes nothing...
08/28 6:00 PM
101 ATL -39½ **UNDER**
102 JAC -3½ *

08/28 7:00 PM
103 DET 41 *
104 BUF -4½ *UNDER*

08/28 7:00 PM
105 IND 42 *UNDER*
106 CIN -2½ *

IND majority of starters OUT

08/28 7:00 PM
107 STL 40 *
108 MIA -3 under

08/28 7:00 PM
109 NYJ 44 OVER
110 PHI -2½ ***

08/28 7:00 PM
111 KC 42½ under
112 GB -3 *****

KC QB Daniels starts
KC most starters OUT
GB QB Flynn starts
GB C Linsley 1st start

08/28 7:30 PM
113 NE 41 under
114 NYG -3 *

NE QB Garoppolo starts Q1-3?-4?

08/28 7:30 PM
115 WAS 39 under
116 TB -2½ *

WAS 0% starters play

08/28 7:30 PM
117 CAR 38 under
118 PIT -5½ *

08/28 8:00 PM
119 MIN 42½ *
120 TEN -1 OVER

08/28 8:00 PM
121 SF 39 ***UNDER***
122 HOU -3½ *

SF QB Kaepernick starts
HOU QB Keenum starts

08/28 8:00 PM
123 CHI 42½ *OVER*
124 CLE -5 *

CHI ST work in progress
CLE O 'disjointed'
CLE OL zone blocking scheme, where are HOLEs?

08/28 8:00 PM
125 BAL 44 over
126 NO -3½ *

NO QB Griffin starts?

08/28 8:00 PM
127 DEN -2 over
128 DAL 44 **

08/28 10:00 PM
129 SEA -5½ over
130 OAK 39 *

08/28 10:00 PM
131 ARI 39½ OVER
132 SD -3 *

Wednesday, August 20, 2014

2014 - Preseason - week 3 - picks

more to come...

08/21 7:30 PM
251 PIT 50 ***
252 PHI -3½ under

PIT QBs Roethlisberger, Gradkowski
PHI QBs Foles, Sanchez
PHI O (starters) preseason, not exactly confidence building and their D is not much better
08/22 7:30 PM
253 JAC 44½ *
254 DET -3½ under

JAC QB2 Bortles to get 1st team reps
JAC QBs Henne, Bortles
DET QBs Stafford, Orlovsky

08/22 7:30 PM
255 CAR 45½ under
256 NE -5½ *

CAR QBs Newton, Anderson
NE QB Brady, Mallett

08/22 7:30 PM
257 NYG 42½ UNDER
258 NYJ pk *

NYG HC Coughlin there's no O production
NYG QB Manning 0 TDs in 3 PS Games
NYG ?worried?
NYG QBs Manning
NYJ QBs Smith, Vick

08/22 8:00 PM
259 OAK 43 UNDER
260 GB -7 *****

OAK 2ndary shredded PSG1-2, even worse this game
OAK QBs Shaub ?Carr? (McGloin)
GB QBs Rodgers, Flynn

08/22 10:00 PM
261 CHI 45 *
262 SEA -7 OVER

CHI QBs Cutler, Clausen
SEA QBs Wilson, ?Jackson?

Monday, August 18, 2014

2014 - Preseason - week 2 - results

A decent week of picks as I ended at 8-8 ATS and 9-7 for totals, but as we all know preseason is really a roll of the dice, with HCs and coordinators, pulling starters or keeping them in longer than planned. It's all off the cuff. Home teams were 10-6 SU, 6-10 ATS, 10-6 O-U totals

2014 - Preseason - week 2 - results

Early Preseason TIER'd ranking

Pre-season TIERed ranking

      CAR ARI A
 PIT      SF A
   SD     B
    DAL    B
BUF    NYG    C

It's always tough to rank teams prior to the season, take the NFC West arguably the toughest division in the NFL. I have ARI above SF, because from watching preseason games, I suspect the 49er's are out of sync, especially on offense and are weaker on defense this season than the prior 4 years.

I may have NO ranked too high due to the absence of their QB Brees, but they are the best in their division. Yes CAR D is formidable a top 5 D, but it's their O that makes you wonder, if they can't sustain their run O, exactly what will the pass O provide? ATL seems to be in the same ship as last year and that was a 4-12 record. TB may have gotten better, but their OL is starting to stink and their front 7 on D really have only McCoy and David, TB maybe a year or two away from a dominating D.

I maybe underestimating CHI, if their D proves to be average, then they'll deserve a higher ranking. MIN is really a big question mark to me, new staff and players haven't gelled in preseason, when will they gell?

PHI is far more balanced than any team in their division. DAL has an O, but their D looks to be nearly pathetic, WAS has a new staff and players, but I've yet to see enough good signs to place them higher. NYG is just not playing well with a new OC

NE and IND have huge gaps between themselves and the rest of their division and will likely have double digit wins seasons again

KC D appears to have gotten worse during the offseason and SD D is still fairly weak, it's their O which allows them to rank so high. OAK is just a bad team and DEN is on the opposite spectrum (a really good team)

If JAC was bad last year, HOU may sink to a lower level and I don't see TEN ranking much higher.

BAL and PIT are a bit of enigmas to me. BAL new OC, seems to sputter in preseason too much. PIT has a lot of youth mixed in with veterans, maybe ranking them lower would be better.

MIA has a good D, but their O leaves much to be desired. NYJ will have another good D unit, but the O may be as equally bad. BUF may still be a year or two away from competing with NE and the other division favorites/winners.

Thursday, August 14, 2014

Must read articles and a few observations for this 2014 season

2014 article: 30 Yards And A Cloud Of Dust

2014 article: 'The Influencer'

2012 article: 'The New Old School'

2013 article: 'Package Plays and the newest form of option football'

The first 'must read' is an ESPN the Magazine article and the rest are from (Chris Brown author).

It's pretty evident (to me) that Chip Kelly will be looked upon as a guru, maybe one day holding the same status of Walsh etc (an innovator extraordinaire). The question is will it happen this year? the next? or the following? Chip will need to win the Super Bowl and then some, but it appears he may have a tough time with his present team. Sure they can outscore the majority of teams, its defensively where issues arise. I wonder what happens when HC Kelly faces a team that has a similiar offense, will they, can they, get the win?

I think that a Kelly Offense doesn't need the great physical specimen of a QB, it needs a smart QB, an accurate QB, able to read defenses quickly and make the right choice in his variety of options to choose from. This is a major departure from the majority of NFL personnel thinking and their 'measureables' as the method of choosing a QB. Even a 'winning' QB should be not given as high a priority as a QB with a high football IQ. That is deciphering coverages and making a smart decision on where to throw the ball (or run with the ball or handoff).

Sadly their is a QB who is buried at this time on a NFL teams depth chart, because his 'measurables' aren't quite up to snuff and he's viewed as having a weak arm. I wonder if HC Kelly would take a chance on DET QB3 Kellen Moore. Yes Moore is a winner (at the college level), but I think he is viewed as a system QB coming from Boise St by the majority of NFL personnel decision makers. It's his third year in the NFL, DET needs to cut him loose if they don't want him as QB2.

CLE OC Kyle Shanahan (xWAS OC) appears to be trying to do some of the college things you see so much of on Saturdays. I just think his implementation leaves much to be desired (as well as his change of pace). HC Kelly seems to be a master at change of pace. I thought that PHI made a mistake in letting go WR DeSean Jackson this offseason, but after reading the above articles, I think Jackson may have free lanced too much and HC Kelly probably thinks he needs a WR who is much more disciplined to have a much more effective O.

One team to really watch this season is MIA with their new OC Lazor (xPHI OC). If QB Tannehill can be successful, we'll see more teams run something similar to Kellys O.

I'll publish more if I find the time...

2014 - Preseason - week 2 - picks

A disastrous week for picks during Hall of Fame and week 1 of preseason, hopefully this week will be better. Preseason games are not for the faint of heart. There is less (accurate) information to follow and the head coach will change his mind on how long to leave his starters in the game are among the many factors for betting on preseason games, but I still pick games. I just don't have high expectations on getting the majority of picks correct. Thus the majority of football fanatics should stay away from betting on preseason, even though the sports books do post ATS and total lines for each game.

This year I have been a bit distracted and I suppose I could have done a lot better for week 1 games, but I tried a different approach in picking games and it obviously didn't work. I'll go back to assessing each teams motivation and making picks as I see fit.

08/14 8:00 PM
401 JAC 42½ *under*
402 CHI -3½ *

JAC D much improved last wk vs TB O
JAC QB Henne 1st half QB Bortle 2nd half
JAC QB Henne stinking it up
CHI O starters 'on fire' last week vs PHI D
CHI O passes to TE and deep to WRs
CHI ST issues
CHI 2nd string OL depth issues

I'm very unsure in this game. I prefer the total. JAC D appears to be much improved, but it's their O that's a real question, with their starters expected to play a half, I don't expect more than a FG or two to be generated by their first team O. The 2nd half for JAC should feature rookie QB Bortles, I would play him into Q4 and maybe let QB Stanzi get a drive or two. I'd expect anywhere from a TD or two at the most from JAC 2nd stringers and the rest of their depth players. Thus perhaps JAC will reach 20 pts, but I think it's likely it will be less. CHI scored a lot in week 1, thus the 'high' total of 42.5 and this could be true this week as well, but it's likely CHI QB Cutler will only play a quarter as he and the rest of the first string O doesn't appear to need the reps. I'll guess CHI will play QB Clausen from Q2-Q3 and maybe let QB Palmer play Q4. At this point I don't expect to see QB Fales as I would want to clearly see if Palmer or Clausen should be QB2 (I'm thinking Clausen at this point). I would expect the loser to be cut very soon to allow for QB Fales to gain more experience. Since both D's did fairly well last week (and yes I thought CHI D did fairly well vs PHI O), I don't expect a high scoring game, but the sports books have a high total for a preseason game. CHI just has a better rotation of QBs, it's their length of playing time which is the unknown factor. JAC doesn't appear to have the 'horses' on O, thus I'm thinking a fairly close low scoring game.

08/15 7:30 PM
403 PHI 46½ **
404 NE -2 **OVER**

PHI @NE for joint practices (2nd yr in a row)
rainy wet windy practices
*NE 2nd wk of joint practices*
NE will they be interested this week?
NE not set at SS
road team 4-0 SU in series
PHI WR Maclin OUT?
NE QB2 Mallett limited reps, Garoppolo more?

08/15 8:00 PM
405 TEN 43 over
406 NO -3 ****

TEN starting and back up C OUT??
NO QB#2 Griffin/McCown 'battle' last wk @STL
NO QB Brees 'OUT'

08/15 10:00 PM
407 DET 40 ***
408 OAK -3 ***UNDER***

DET sluggish?
OAK O pathetic last week @MIN
OAK almost goose egg'd
OAK @Oxnard for joint practice w/DAL
brawling 8/11

08/15 10:00 PM
409 SD 38½ *
410 SEA -6½ *UNDER

SD O starters 'on fire' vs DAL D
SD OL still has issues

08/16 4:00 PM
411 GB 41 *
412 STL -2½ *over

GB QB2 battle Flynn vs Tolzien
STL QB Bradford starts (DNP PSG1 vs NO)
**STL QB Hill 2TDs PSG1 on 7 attempts**

08/16 7:00 PM
413 NYG 41 *under
414 IND -2 *

NYG 1's to play longer 5+drives (Q1-Q2)
NYG QBs Manning Painter Nassib
IND QBs Luck Hasselbeck Harnish
IND OL injuries, C Holmes OUT
IND QB Luck Q1 2 series, if he does well again
IND CB Davis and S Landry starts

08/16 7:00 PM
415 BAL -1 over
416 DAL 41½ *

BAL satisfied w/joint practice vs SF
BAL starters to play Q1 (maybe more)
BAL QB Taylor to play Q2-Q4(partial?)
DAL D 'hideous' @SD, 'the show must go on'
OAK @Oxnard for joint practice w/DAL
brawling 8/11

08/16 7:00 PM
417 NYJ 41½ ***
418 CIN -3 UNDER

NYJ starters 2-3? series
NYJ DT Richardson 'we owe them one'
for LY 49-9 butt kicking
CIN QB2 Campbell OUT, QB Wilson p/u 8/10
CIN QBs Dalton, Scott, Wilson (QB2n3 1yr exp)

08/16 7:30 PM
419 BUF 40 UNDER
420 PIT -2½ *

BUF QB Manuel 0 TDs in preseason vs NYG, @CAR
BUF @PIT for joint practice 8/12-13
PIT "Separation Saturday"
PIT D dominating joint practice day 1

08/16 7:30 PM
421 MIA 37 under
422 TB -2½ *

MIA QB Quinn (8/10 p/u) QB#2 'battle' w/Moore
MIA QB2 Moore sore shoulder
MIA QB3 Quinn
MIA QB4 Lobato not NFL caliber
MIA OL2 can't run ball
MIA LBs can't cover RB in flat
MIA ST solid
TB OL 'shambles' @JAC

08/16 8:00 PM
423 ATL 40 *UNDER?
424 HOU -3 *

ATL @HOU for joint practice 8/13-14
ATL D still in a rut
ATL TC injuriesX6
ATL HC Smith wants RZ improvements
HOU HC O'Brien "we're terrible" last week @ARI
HOU WR Johnson hamstring OUT?
HOU D does well joint practice, O????

08/16 8:30 PM
425 ARI 38 under
426 MIN -3 *

MIN QB1 can move the ball, other QBs ??? last wk vs OAK

08/17 4:00 PM
427 DEN 40 under
428 SF -3½ *

DEN 2nd game vs NFC W D
SF satisfied w/joint practice @BAL

08/17 8:00 PM
429 KC 39 ***UNDER***
430 CAR -3½ *

KC QB Smith 1st half
KC WR Bowe sucks
KC D ahead of O, except at DB, very very suspect
CAR O QB Newton, RB Stewart and Williams to start
CAR D tough vs run
CAR miff'd no respect from nat'l media
'mostly likely to fall this year'

08/18 8:00 PM
431 CLE 41 *over
432 WAS -2 *

CLE QB Hoyer and Manziel equal 1st team reps
CLE QB Grossman to play? (8/10 p/u)
CLE WRs depth too many dropsies
CLE starters for 1st half

Sunday, August 10, 2014

2014 - Preseason HoF week 1 - results

Watched part of SF @BAL game, BAL O really seems interested in winning

Watched part of HOU @ARI game, HOU O just looks inept (bottom 5?), but their D is just the opposite, looks like a top 5 D.

I was unable to watch TB @JAC, but from all the media reports, this game must have been very disappointing for TB fans, coaches as TB OL should now be called the matador OL for their 'O' le' style of swinging gates w/guard blocking nearly no one. At this time they rate below HOU OL.

Results for ATS are putrid and somewhat better for totals. A hindsight observation is the home teams went 14-2 SU and 11-3-2 ATS (W-L-P).  Totals 8-6-2 (O-U-P)
I did notice from last season (2013) that for week 1 home teams won only 5 games SU (DET repeated). Interestingly enough if picked the winner SU you also were perfect ATS last season as well.
Repeat SU winners from last season (2013) week 1 - DET, BAL, WAS, DEN, ARI, NO, NYG, BUF
Repeat ATS winners from last season (2013) week 1 - CLE, BAL, WAS, DEN, ARI, NO, NYG, BUF
Repeat SU losers from last season (2013) week 1 - TB, STL, SF, PHI, GB, DAL, PIT, IND
Repeat ATS losers from last season (2013) week 1 - TB, STL, SF, PHI, GB, DAL, PIT
notable: IND had a 'push' ATS this season

Games where I posted a "L-L" (ATS-Total)

Games where I posted a "L-P" or "P-L" (ATS-Total)

2014 - Preseason - Hall of Fame and Week 1 - results

Friday, August 01, 2014

2014 - Preseason - HoF - week 1 - picks

08/03 8:00 PM
241 NYG 33½ UNDER
242 BUF -2½ *

Looks like a work in progress mode for NYG O with new OC McAdoo. BUF is in yr 2 of HC Marrone and staff. Thus they get the nod. The QB rotation is unknown at this time, but if I had to hazard a guess, NYG backup QBs will play more minutes as they are 3 deep (Manning Painter Nassib) vs BUF QBs (Manuel, Lewis, Tuel and Dixon). If I were NYG OC McAdoo I would keep Manning in for more than a series, but since HC Coughlin is in charge I doubt this will occur. I expect blitzing from BUF D and thus the edge is with BUF.
more to follow as I have time...

The following is a bit rough as I have some thoughts but have wobble/waffled back and forth on picks

08/07 7:00 PM
251 IND 35½ *
252 NYJ -3 UNDER?

QB2's for both team veterans (Vick, Hasselbeck)
IND OL (rookie/2yr x3 GCG) to play longer than other starters (a half?)
IND D concentrating on stopping run?
IND lacks depth at majority of positions
NYJ expect 2 series w/QB Smith, may 6 series w/Vick ?17pts?
NYJ D outstanding run D, O who's WR #2???
-- NYJ 2ndary weak, not even average --
NYJ needs to win w/D & ST, conservative ball control O

08/07 7:30 PM
253 NE 37 *?*
254 WAS -1½ *under?

held joint practices 8/4-6
WAS new HC and staff except for DC
WAS should have more incentive
WAS WR Garcon, S Clark and Thomas OUT, WR Jackson ???
WAS starters 8-10 snaps a series or two
WAS HC Gruden simple expectations
NE on another level

08/07 7:30 PM
255 SF 35 ***
256 BAL PK **OVER?

SF QBs all veterans (3+yrs)
BAL QB3 rookie
**BAL QB2 Taylor to play at least 2Q, doing really well TC**
BAL CB3&4 not up to snuff
BAL new OC
BAL 2ndary issues
will hold 4 joint practices 8/8-11 (after game)
SF QB kaepernick a series or two at most
SF D deep at DL/LB
SF competition higher this yr

08/07 8:00 PM
257 CIN 35 ***
258 KC -2 *under?

CIN new OC
CIN QB4 rookie inj'd not expected to play
CIN treating game as evaluation for players, more situations eval
CIN QBs Dalton Campbell Scott McCarron
CIN QB Dalton a series or 2, 
CIN LT Whitworth RT Smith TE Gresham OUT
KC QB4 rookie
KC DBs numerous inj's ?OVER?
KC HC Reid - QB's to play a Q each
Smith, Daniels, Bray, Murray
KC OC Pederson play calling simple, let players play fast/execute
**KC DB Sean Smith and Steve Gregory (vets) playing on 2nd team**
KC inj's WRs DBs, more run game?

08/07 9:00 PM
259 SEA 37 ***
260 DEN -1½ under

DEN QBs after Manning "very green"
SEA QBs Jackson, Daniel(experienced) Pryor (getting lots of reps)
SEA D deep
SEA OL just got deeper w/xHOU RT Winston and LG Smith

08/07 10:00 PM
261 DAL 36½ *
262 SD -2½ over

if SD QB3 plays, advantage DAL
**SD 9 straight days of pads**
SD new OC Reich
DAL D 15 players inj'd 90-4=86/2=43-15=28
DAL OL improved, DL going downhill?
DAL QB Weeden to play Q1-2 (Romo out)

08/08 7:00 PM
263 MIA 36½ *under
264 ATL -2½ *

after starters, MIA QBs a little more experienced than ATL QBs
MIA new OC Lazor, major changes for QBs
MIA dozen players inj'd
ATL a more physical team this year along OL n DL
ATL OL did not do well vs TEN DL 1on1 drills
ATL DL/DT definite upgrade from LY, but still not good enough
ATL no game plan for PSG1 vs MIA
ATL thin @safety, no depth, injuries
ATL has no real depth along OL

08/08 7:30 PM
265 BUF 37 over
266 CAR -1 *

CAR new WRs, slightly older QBs

08/08 7:30 PM
267 TB -1 *
268 JAC 35½ under

TB limited game plan
JAC QB2 Bortle extended reps?

08/08 8:00 PM
269 NO 37½ *under
270 STL -3 *

NO lots of inj's
NO approaching as eval game
nearly identical experience for QBs
STL new DC Gregg Williams
STL QB Bradford. LT Long, C Wells OUT

08/08 8:00 PM
271 PHI 38½ **
272 CHI -2 under

PHI QBs Sanchez,Barkley,Kinne 'just looks stronger'
CHI QBs Clausen,Palmer,Fales

08/08 8:00 PM
273 OAK 37 over?
274 MIN -2½ ***

OAK QB2 Carr extended reps?
MIN new HC, OC, DC - extended look at QB Bridgewater?
MIN simple game plan, wants players to play fast

08/09 7:30 PM
275 CLE 37½ over?
276 DET -2½ ***

CLE QB2 Manziel extended reps?
DET QB2 and QB3 vets

08/09 7:30 PM
277 PIT 36 *
278 NYG -3 *under

unsure about taking NYG, perhaps PIT is better?

08/09 8:00 PM
279 GB 37 *
280 TEN -1 *OVER

GB QB2/3s veterans - TC practicing very well
GB OL 'best yet' per HC McCarthy
TEN new HC OC **DC Ray Horton 3-4 (xARI DC)**
TEN fairly young team nearly half less than 2yrs
TEN OL well built
TEN #2 in AFC South?
TEN QBs Locker, Whitehurst, Mettenberger

08/09 8:30 PM
281 HOU 37 ***UNDER***
282 ARI -2½ ***********

HOU new HC OC DC, TC is the most intense in a long time
HOU C-QB exchange issues
ARI is deep with players