Sunday, July 29, 2012

2012 - Preseason week 01 - picks

Posting early due to uncertainties @work, time etc...

08/05 8:00 PM

241 ARI 35½ **
242 NO -3 under

08/09 7:00 PM
251 WAS 35½ over
252 BUF -2½ *

08/09 7:30 PM
253 NO -6½ under
254 NE 47½ *

holding joint practice @NE

08/09 7:30 PM
255 PIT 35 *
256 PHI -3 under

08/09 7:30 PM
257 BAL 33½ *
258 ATL -3 under

08/09 8:00 PM
259 GB 38½ under
260 SD -2½ *

08/09 8:30 PM
261 DEN 34 under
262 CHI -3 ***

08/10 7:30 PM
263 TB 33 over
264 MIA -2½ **

08/10 7:30 PM
265 NYJ 34 *
266 CIN -1½ under

08/10 7:30 PM
267 CLE 37 ***
268 DET -4½ over

08/10 7:30 PM
269 NYG 35 under
270 JAC PK ****

NYG QB Perrilloux, inacurrate

08/10 8:00 PM
271 ARI *
272 KC under

08/10 9:00 PM
273 MIN 33½ **
274 SF -5 under

08/11 7:00 PM
275 HOU 36 *
276 CAR -2 over

08/11 10:00 PM
277 TEN 35 under
278 SEA -2 ***

08/12 1:30 PM
279 STL 34 *
280 IND -2½ under

08/13 8:00 PM
281 DAL 34½ over
282 OAK -2 **

Friday, July 20, 2012

NFP article on teams with +/- 9pts in 2011

the above link is interesting and here's a summation: "If the scoring average trend that we have broken down in this article holds true in 2012, the Panthers, Packers and Saints are all headed for a step in the wrong direction offensively, while the Colts and Chiefs should expect to see more trips to the end zone this coming season."

So CAR headed for a sophomore slump with Cam & Co? Perhaps, but they appear to be an 7-9 team (optimum) this year. The biggest question mark is when they face the AFC W (SD, DEN, KC, OAK) will they win 1? 2? 3?. They also have the NFC E (NYG, DAL, PHI, WAS) on their docket and have parity games vs SEA and @CHI. Within their division it'll be ATLs to lose, NO will be beatable and TB should lose twice. I'll be watching CAR O-Line and LBs for a clearer picture of their team

GB with Rodgers and his WR corp heading downhill? Only injuries will derail them. Their schedule is tough with SF, NYG, HOU, CHI, DET and semi tough with NO, ARI, SEA, TEN but the rest are IND, STL, JAC, MIN (twice). If you just review opponent QB's, nine of them are young and don't have 3 seasons of games under their belt and thus more likely to be inefficient in scoring (they'll punt a lot). So GB should have more opportunities to score and thus score more.
Saint's - yeah with offseason turmoil, suspensions, key departures of G Nick, WR Meachem, is their anyway to look but down?

KC - had an injury riddled year, and normally the next year teams do come back, their have been exceptions and it was due I believe to more injuries. So yeah I expect them to do better

IND - with a new staff, new personnel, new schemes, facing NFC N (3 losses, may win vs MIN), AFC E (4 losses, doubtful if they'll beat MIA), parity games vs CLE (may be a win) @KC (doubtful) and their division (where JAC may give up 1 win). I count maybe 3-5 wins. Some will say maybe later on in the season, they'll have a better chance? I doubt it with NFL scheduling division games at the end of the season, HOU will crush them twice in DEC. They'll need a lot of luck on their side - you know injuries, penalties on opponents and curious play calling to help. It's a rebuilding year

So I think two yes, two no and one maybe....

Tuesday, July 17, 2012

a tactic for in-game betting with Green Bay

The above link goes into GB for failure with Q4 comebacks and I noticed as well when trailing by 7+ pts at anytime in the game. I've read elsewhere that the book sometimes won't offer a line, near the end of game, so you may not be able to bet against GB at start of Q4. You'll just need to take a chance on the nearly 70% chance of winning and take their opponent.

There are also other interesting facts in the above article to follow, let's call it "since 2008"

•Since 2008 and including playoffs, Green Bay is No. 2 in average first quarter scoring margin (+2.33 points per game). Atlanta is No. 1 (+2.42 points per game).

Green Bay ranks No. 2 in average halftime scoring margin (+5.39 points per game). New England is No. 1 (+5.62 points per game).

Green Bay ranks No. 2 in average scoring margin through three quarters (+7.74 points per game). New England is No. 1 (+8.87 points per game).

•Since 2008 and including playoffs, the Packers have 25 wire-to-wire wins (games where they never trailed). Baltimore actually leads the league with 27. Five more teams have at least 20 such wins.

•Since 2008 and including playoffs, Green Bay is tied with Philadelphia and Pittsburgh for No. 2 in the league in games (41) where they scored first. Atlanta is No. 1 with 45.

Green Bay’s 24-1 mark when leading by 10+ points at halftime matches that of Philadelphia for most such games in the league since 2008. Atlanta has the best record (22-0).

Here's something that maybe helpful for teasers (+6, +6.5, +7 pts) or at least SU:

"If Rodgers and the Packers don’t kick your ass, then they at least are going to give you all you can handle, as they are one of the most competitive teams in NFL history.

That is the way you need to look at it as a fan. When Green Bay’s not 6-20 in their failed comebacks and game-winning drives under Rodgers, they are 39-3 (.929) in the games he starts and finishes."

Thursday, July 12, 2012

Supplemental Draft 2012

CLE picked up xBaylor WR Gordon  with a 2nd round pick from next year. Normally I don't have anything to say about the supplemental draft, but in this case their seems to be 'more than meets the eye'.

Either CLE thinks highly of Gordon and wisely used a 2nd round pick or they are desperate.

I know desperate seems to be a radical characterization of their pick, but several things come to mind.

1) a 2nd round pick from 2012 used on a WR
They should've used a 5th or 6th round on a WR, but they might not have had one as I don't know their available picks for 2013, 2nd round seems to be really high IMO

2) their rookie WR Childs from last year, has proven to be a numbers guy in my mind, "fits the ideal size chart [numbers]", but suffers from dropsies (lacks hand-eye coordination, not in sync with QB, route running suspect). There was much expected of him last year, but as we all know CLE QB-WR last year was near bottom of NFL. So I'm about to be a disbeliever in CLE scouting as far as WRs

3) This pick appears to give QB Weeden another target, again why? I ask myself, does the present corp of WR's lack enough skill, knowledge for their position?

4) And finally QB's make WR's not the other way around, thus giving up high picks (and a 2nd round pick is high IMO) for a suspect WR at best, really speaks volumes as to what were they thinking?

Another interesting thought was that another rookie WR from Baylor this year K Wright (TEN) did not have a very fast 40 time. So this makes RG3 even more impressive or maybe not, maybe it's the system.

I watched the TCU Baylor game last year, WR Wright did look quick, so I'll say he's quicker than he's fast and that explains the 40yrd time. Perhaps Gordon is the same, it just his hands were not as good (consistent catching) as compared to Wright.

CLE is really reaching for a quality WR, they should probably pick up a FA, instead of hoping to draft a WR, as it is they have a suspect record for WR's. They really need to look at their internal scouting methods for WR. They could pick up a better WR on the cheap from the AFL, CFL or a FA veteran.

Friday, July 06, 2012

QB guru - George Whitfield, Clark Kent

I stumbled across this (I forgot what I was looking for)

and also found a nytimes article as well on QB guru Whitfield.

The above article also mentions OK QB Jones and Clemson QB Boyd as improving their craft under Whitfield tutelage. So along with Luck this year, this might be a trio pick for the weekend, pays 6.5-1 normally and if you can get them as dogs on the money line it'll pay more than your standard parlay card.

You could attribute Newton's rookie year to Carolina OC Chudzinski, but you'd have to wait for him to move onto another team for the same effect to occur.

I also found this testament for Clark Kent, err LB Kuechly see

Maybe I'm a Carolina Panther mood, we'll see what happens this year...

Thursday, July 05, 2012

Pre Season QB angles

Now here's an edge I developed from this article

I removed what I don't need, but you can read it all from the above link if you like.

In my truncated version, of the list of QB battles, you should look for obvious edges like an interested team (wants to win) vs a disinterested team (it's preseason, who cares?)

The below teams should put up points... and I wrote my thoughts (if any) below each team

11. New York Jets

Incumbent: Mark Sanchez
Challenger: Tim Tebow

Team has a new OC Sparano

10. IND
Incumbent: None
Challengers: Andrew Luck, Drew Stanton

Whole new staff, this is a staff that will want to win every game

9. KC
Incumbent: Matt Cassel
Challenger: Brady Quinn

Brady was never that good, I think he'll alienate himself from team mates, seems like a better play against opportunity. Yes I know they have a new OC (Daboll) and ST (McMahon), but interim coach Crennel became HC, I may be wrong but we'll see....

8. JAC
Incumbent: Blaine Gabbert
Challenger: Chad Henne

Gabber was just awful at times last year, you could really see him lose confidence as the year wore on. The good news is he has a new coaching staff and they'll want to win badly

7. MIN
Incumbent: Christian Ponder
Challenger: Joe Webb

Not many thoughts except this is a young team, the coaching staff should be pushing for wins, but can they win with one of the youngest teams (only STL is younger among O&D starters) in preseason? WR's are a question mark after Harvin.

6. WAS
Incumbent: Rex Grossman
Challenger: Robert Griffin III

Really want to see who get's the 1st team reps, if it's RG3, this may be a play on team during weeks 1 & 2.
Of course, they may just play halves and not include QB3 and QB4, Cousins and Crompton, really got to know the QB game plan for that week

5. ARI
Incumbent: Kevin Kolb
Challenger: John Skelton

This a fairly veteran team, with QB3 Bartel and rookie QB4 Lindley, again QB rotation should clue us in on how to play, ON? or OFF?

4. SEA
Incumbent: Tarvaris Jackson
Challengers: Matt Flynn, Russell Wilson

Defensively this team is loaded, Offensively just the opposite with WR that have too many ?'s in my mind. Maybe an UNDER team.

3. CLE
Incumbent: Colt McCoy
Challengers: Brandon Weeden, Seneca Wallace

New OC, I like Weeden, if he plays QB2 or QB3, this is a play ON team.

2. MIA
Incumbent: Matt Moore
Challengers: Ryan Tannehill, David Garrard

Another team with a new coaching staff, veteran QB's, looks like a definite play ON team
UPDATE: I know not even TC yet, but if only Moore & Garrard battle, how often will we see Tannehill? Reports on 'net of Tannehill being behind/confused during OTAs/mini-camps may mean he doesn't see any preseason

1. TEN
Incumbent: Matt Hasselbeck
Challenger: Jake Locker

QB3 Rusty Smith is a play ON QB, but QB4 Nick Stephens is an unknown for me at this time. WR Kendall Wright also is a game changer


Other teams of note:

There are two teams with a new coaching staff, TB and OAK, they won't have a QB battle, but I really like new staffs as there are generally more on the edge and winning is something they want to instill in the preseason

ATL has a new OC and DC and with wk1 vs BAL and wk2 vs CIN, I believe they'll be in hunger mode and should get the win for both games

Another thing I noticed is that blitzing during preseason games have gone up considerably from years gone by, especially 3-4 D's. So which teams have a new DC running 3-4?


STL (also a new staff) should be running a 4-3, but who is their DC? With Williams suspended, I'd like to know sooner than later.

a traveling edge, if you will

Just read this ....

and when you're looking for an edge, this may come in handy in tipping your thoughts one side or another

mid-way down the article, it states....

"Based upon games played over the past 15 seasons, teams seem to play better on the road and win more frequently against nearby opponents than they do against faraway ones:"

Travel Distance, One-Way Winning Percentage, Road Teams

2000+ miles 39.8%

1,000-1,999 miles 40.3%

0-999 miles 43.0%

It does seems seem useful, you could even look at it as home teams have a 60.2% winning percentage vs teams that travel 2000+ miles. Of course you do remember among the losers of last year for this trend was none other than NYG when they hosted SEA. And I believe I had SEA....

Tuesday, July 03, 2012

Pre-season notes - Days between games

I've placed one * (star/splat/asterik) next to the team that will have less days between games (less than the normal 7) and highlighted in red.

Please note the ** next to TB @WAS, WAS will have 4 day prep, TB will have 5 day prep

4 days

*NO @NE wk1

*OAK @ARI wk2

*NE @TB wk3

*PHI @CLE wk3

*NYJ @PHI wk4

*DEN @ARI wk4

MIA @*DAL wk4

TB @*WAS wk4**

*CAR @PIT wk4

SD @*SF wk4

5 days

*ARI @KC wk1

*DAL @SD wk2

*BUF @*DET wk4    (note: no advantage/disadvantage for BUF or DET)

*MIA @DAL wk4

*NE @*NYG wk4     (note: no advantage/disadvantage for NE or NYG)

MIN @*HOU wk4

CIN @*IND wk4

*OAK @SEA wk4

*NO @TEN wk4

*TB @WAS wk4**

BAL @*STL wk4

9 days

SEA @*DEN wk2

DAL @*SD wk2

*WAS @*CHI wk2    (note: no advantage/disadvantage for WAS or CHI)

10 days

IND @*PIT wk2

11 days

*PHI @ *NE wk2     (note: no advantage/disadvantage for PHI or NE)

ARI & NO play 5 preseason games this year

KC will be hosting ARI week prior to game

ARI @NO 8/5
ARI @KC 8/10

ARI will be on road for about a week

This 2012 season, new packages on

As normal there's preseason packages $19.99

and for the regular season as well as playoffs for $69.99 (Game Rewind)
you get all games, + coaches view for 2012 (1st time offered), + go as far back as '09 season for regular games, highly helpful, when reviewing the same opponents from previous years to get an idea of who should win this year. (Last year NYJ vs DEN, DEN won, prior year NYJ won, prior years win for NYJ appear'd IMO to be lucky, that's why I chose DEN)

Here's another interesting post from Football Perspective

Wow, from a fantasy football point of view, this article has some possibilities.

In particular for betting, the QB upside against their own division for DET QB Stafford & OAK QB Palmer is nice to know

as well as the downside for QB's MIN Ponder and BUF Fitzpatrick within their division

just fun stuff before training camps grab the headlines

Monday, July 02, 2012

RB's perspective

I just read a nice article, that may be of use... as the article points out there are quite a few RB's in the 30 age range.

This will be something to check on later this year, that's if I remember to do so.