John Clayton has another commentary article that casts insight into something, I wish I had time for. He built a spreadsheet or database of players earning six million plus per year see..$6 million-a-year contracts in decline
This helps build a picture of the teams mentioned in the article youth and strength. If you have more 6 mil contracts combined with Pro Bowl players, you could say you're built to win this season.
Notable teams that have 8 or more players with $6+ mil contracts:
DAL
PHI
CHI
ATL
TB
SEA
SF
What jumps out to me is that these are all NFC teams, this could point toward the NFC dominating the AFC in their interconference game this year.
John also mentions a big decline for OAK, which could point to a 'bet against' and perhaps 'under the total' season for OAK.
I just wish the current spreadsheet or database was available online as well as prior years.
Saturday, June 29, 2013
Friday, June 28, 2013
So it's the off season and this is what people post...
Here's an interesting article from FP Mike Lombardi Cracks the Code to Winning in the NFL
note: the volume of games when looking at winning percentages
Somethings I think:
Some of them are obvious, some aren't so obvious and some even with the knowledge it's hard to predict (for example predicting 6+sacks by a D is not easy to do or predicting the number of turnovers in a game).
As for the 50+ combined attempts rushing and passing on offense, with the NFL teams increasing offensive tempo, I expect this to occur more often and not be as big a factor as the percentage of wins indicates at this time.
The first half with a lead stat is highly interesting and end of Q3 as well, especially for the 'in game' (aka betting during the game) betting that has escalated in popularity these past few years. I'm much more partial to these only due to volume of games (wins and losses). As a caution, a recent article at CHFF details the 2012 SD team that lost 5 half time leads (see http://www.coldhardfootballfacts.com/content/2012-san-diego-chargers-led-nfl-blown-leads/23215/) It notes as well that PHI and DET gave away four half time leads and three teams did not lose a game if they had the lead at half time (HOU, DEN, ATL)
The comments are hilarious, if you hadn't noticed this article is categorized as History, Statistics, Totally Useless. I guess Joe at NFP, where Lombardi often wrote as well, is not well respected to say the least. As I recall Joe has been writing for NFP as well as contributing w/video. I did notice the interviews w/the books, but I couldn't put 2 cents with what he had to say or the books had to say. So it's never been on my RSS reader, though I will admit to following Matt Bowen of NFP, I suspect he could go anywhere and continue to write his nice insights on the game itself.
Basic football is what wins. You need to know starters, you need to follow coaching tendencies on both sides of the ball and there are few ST coaches who really gave an edge to their team, but now with this past season implementation of 30yd kickoffs and the subsequent increase in the number of touchbacks, I suspect their relevance will be less of an impact, unless they can find those exceptional directional punters.
Interestingly enough BUF carried an extra kicker for the first part of the season, I think it was six weeks or so. Perhaps it was just an experiment, but the FG kicker normally does kickoffs as well. The question for most ST coaches is should I carry a better more accurate FG kicker or a kicker who can get the ball into the endzone. Depending on the kicker their can be a trade off and this weighs in on ST coaches decisions. If you can coach good coverage and the players cover well, then a more accurate FG kicker is your first choice, if not, I would consider getting an end zone kicker as the number of 80yd drives resulting in a TD each game are perhaps one or two at best (this is instinct talking) and only the better offenses can do this. If you are an average offensive than I would expect zero to one and the bottom fourth of offensives I suspect may get a TD every other game or every two games (again instinct talking from following teams over the years)
Perhaps one day I might make a statistical attempt and quantifying some of my thoughts, but then I would need to write them all down and that would be a bit arduous for me. For now I'll let instinct rule and watch what the statistical heads find.
note: the volume of games when looking at winning percentages
Somethings I think:
Some of them are obvious, some aren't so obvious and some even with the knowledge it's hard to predict (for example predicting 6+sacks by a D is not easy to do or predicting the number of turnovers in a game).
As for the 50+ combined attempts rushing and passing on offense, with the NFL teams increasing offensive tempo, I expect this to occur more often and not be as big a factor as the percentage of wins indicates at this time.
The first half with a lead stat is highly interesting and end of Q3 as well, especially for the 'in game' (aka betting during the game) betting that has escalated in popularity these past few years. I'm much more partial to these only due to volume of games (wins and losses). As a caution, a recent article at CHFF details the 2012 SD team that lost 5 half time leads (see http://www.coldhardfootballfacts.com/content/2012-san-diego-chargers-led-nfl-blown-leads/23215/) It notes as well that PHI and DET gave away four half time leads and three teams did not lose a game if they had the lead at half time (HOU, DEN, ATL)
The comments are hilarious, if you hadn't noticed this article is categorized as History, Statistics, Totally Useless. I guess Joe at NFP, where Lombardi often wrote as well, is not well respected to say the least. As I recall Joe has been writing for NFP as well as contributing w/video. I did notice the interviews w/the books, but I couldn't put 2 cents with what he had to say or the books had to say. So it's never been on my RSS reader, though I will admit to following Matt Bowen of NFP, I suspect he could go anywhere and continue to write his nice insights on the game itself.
Basic football is what wins. You need to know starters, you need to follow coaching tendencies on both sides of the ball and there are few ST coaches who really gave an edge to their team, but now with this past season implementation of 30yd kickoffs and the subsequent increase in the number of touchbacks, I suspect their relevance will be less of an impact, unless they can find those exceptional directional punters.
Interestingly enough BUF carried an extra kicker for the first part of the season, I think it was six weeks or so. Perhaps it was just an experiment, but the FG kicker normally does kickoffs as well. The question for most ST coaches is should I carry a better more accurate FG kicker or a kicker who can get the ball into the endzone. Depending on the kicker their can be a trade off and this weighs in on ST coaches decisions. If you can coach good coverage and the players cover well, then a more accurate FG kicker is your first choice, if not, I would consider getting an end zone kicker as the number of 80yd drives resulting in a TD each game are perhaps one or two at best (this is instinct talking) and only the better offenses can do this. If you are an average offensive than I would expect zero to one and the bottom fourth of offensives I suspect may get a TD every other game or every two games (again instinct talking from following teams over the years)
Perhaps one day I might make a statistical attempt and quantifying some of my thoughts, but then I would need to write them all down and that would be a bit arduous for me. For now I'll let instinct rule and watch what the statistical heads find.
Saturday, June 15, 2013
a dissection?? of JAC QB's? really?
I picked up this via RSS, but found the original link here http://www.13wham.com/sports/nfl/story/Extra-Points-Dissecting-the-Jags-QB-situation/M0SavkfCJk6Z8XM8zY7-hw.cspx
This is more laughable to read about JAC and 5 QB situation than anything else, but I wanted to point out an ol' saying 'when you have too much of one thing, you have nothing' and this has not changed.
The GM for JAC states he's introducing competition w/QB Kafka, uhhhh, in reality, he really was a product of his college system. He doesn't have an arm and he doesn't have the smarts IMO. Who cares if he came out of Northwestern? The head coach of Northwestern should be lauded for winning with not much to work with, you might want to look at the supporting cast for Northwestern not their QB!
If these QBs for JAC get on the field, it's a bet against them AND bet under the total. What else would you be looking at? Just Favorite and Under combo, nothing else to consider.
This is more laughable to read about JAC and 5 QB situation than anything else, but I wanted to point out an ol' saying 'when you have too much of one thing, you have nothing' and this has not changed.
The GM for JAC states he's introducing competition w/QB Kafka, uhhhh, in reality, he really was a product of his college system. He doesn't have an arm and he doesn't have the smarts IMO. Who cares if he came out of Northwestern? The head coach of Northwestern should be lauded for winning with not much to work with, you might want to look at the supporting cast for Northwestern not their QB!
If these QBs for JAC get on the field, it's a bet against them AND bet under the total. What else would you be looking at? Just Favorite and Under combo, nothing else to consider.
Wednesday, June 12, 2013
Chip Kelly - PHI
Here's another view point from SI's Don Banks http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/nfl/news/20130605/chip-kelly-philadelphia-eagles/?xid=si_nfl
notables:
"There's a leap of faith underway around here, and it's being taken at a breathtaking pace. To describe Kelly's preferred style of practice as "up-tempo" is a sizable understatement. Frenetic is more like it."
"I didn't see a single huddle all day long on offense, and it looked like Eagles quarterbacks will do very little work under center this season."
"Kelly is bringing to the Eagles being new, both on offense and on a defense that is transforming into a hybrid formation that has elements of both a 3-4 and a 4-3"
Ok, so QB is still unsettled and the team will go as far their QB takes them, but the most noteworthy quote is 'very little work under center'. So shotgun for QB, gives them that extra second to find the open guy and D's will likely be more frustrated w/nearly no opportunity for a sack.
TC is only a month away.....
notables:
"There's a leap of faith underway around here, and it's being taken at a breathtaking pace. To describe Kelly's preferred style of practice as "up-tempo" is a sizable understatement. Frenetic is more like it."
"Kelly is bringing to the Eagles being new, both on offense and on a defense that is transforming into a hybrid formation that has elements of both a 3-4 and a 4-3"
"Vick and Foles continue to basically split first-team reps"
"You can see what this offense could become,'' Avant said. "Our defense is doing pretty good, but we're always a man or a half a man ahead of them most of the time. Toward the end of practice we start completing more passes against them, and that's just a sign of us being to the ball, being in shape and playing at just a different level of tempo and conditioning. I think this offense will work in the NFL, if the quarterback can do it. I think we're in the position to win, and I like it. As long as the quarterback puts us in the right position, I think we'll be fine.''
"You can see what this offense could become,'' Avant said. "Our defense is doing pretty good, but we're always a man or a half a man ahead of them most of the time. Toward the end of practice we start completing more passes against them, and that's just a sign of us being to the ball, being in shape and playing at just a different level of tempo and conditioning. I think this offense will work in the NFL, if the quarterback can do it. I think we're in the position to win, and I like it. As long as the quarterback puts us in the right position, I think we'll be fine.''
Ok, so QB is still unsettled and the team will go as far their QB takes them, but the most noteworthy quote is 'very little work under center'. So shotgun for QB, gives them that extra second to find the open guy and D's will likely be more frustrated w/nearly no opportunity for a sack.
TC is only a month away.....
SF OC Roman and 2012 season play calling
Just a great read http://sports.yahoo.com/news/nfl--offensive-guru-and-coaching-candidate-greg-roman-a-victim-of-his--niners--success-022509392.html
Head coach in waiting Greg Roman, held back plays after the NE game late in the season. This is something to remember again for this year should SF be fortunate to be in the same position for the 2013 season and able to control their playoff position.
Head coach in waiting Greg Roman, held back plays after the NE game late in the season. This is something to remember again for this year should SF be fortunate to be in the same position for the 2013 season and able to control their playoff position.
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