Tuesday, October 30, 2012

2012 - week 08 - results

Very good week ATS, just barely below .500 for totals. And for the year I'm again above .500 !!

Interestingly enough key injuries may or may not have had affected their team. OAK was w/o their LT yet won their game on the road at KC or this could be just a reflection that KC as a team is 'lost', QB Quinn did go down in Q1, but QB Cassel sub'd and did fairly well.
TEN was also w/o their LT and they lost @home to IND. IND seems to have a running game
NYJ was w/o their LB Scott and were blown out @home by MIA, NYJ seems to be another 'lost' team.
WAS had questions with their MLB Fletcher as well prior to game, but he played and they still lost to PIT. Seems to me WAS WR's had the dropsies, could be the weather..
Speaking of the weather, it seemed to help CLE in their upset at home of SD. Can you believe a dome team beat a grass team in inclement weather? ATL did just that to PHI and now PHI may see a new HC in the coming year. JAC played way UP for their game with GB in cold conditions (under 40 degrees with wind chill) and w/o their RB or is it GB had too many skill players out (WRs) to get a +2TD victory (and cover the spread)?

weather games ... (see possible-weather-games-for-week-8 )
O/U 1-3, ATL @PHI end game total of 47 pts went just over the set 46.5 total, ATL scored on their first six possessions, just dominating, PHI got a garbage time TD
ATS 3-1 WAS lost to PIT due to WR's and play calling IMO, WAS should've run more

Again this year the designated home team (STL) for the overseas game, really lost from the beginning without home field advantage.

CAR DL played well, just their O has no consistency in passing or running game, so CHI won 'ugly' just like GB

DET was a bit lucky at home (another ugly win?), DAL was inept again at the end of a game (a NYG ugly win?).

I wonder if DEN will meet SF in NO for the super bowl?

teams coming off a bye week were 3-3 SU and ATS
teams going into their bye week were 2-2 SU and ATS

Thursday, October 25, 2012

Possible Weather games for week 8

There's a recent article about a "Frankenstorm" approaching, projected to start on Sunday,
see http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/U/US_SCI_SUPER_STORM?SITE=NVLAS&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT

It may be a bit early, but both PHI and NYJ games should go under total. Even CLE game has a better chance of going under total (I had chosen over earlier in the week, but now I would hedge if I had placed an over bet on that game)

Wind is a key factor, making the game like an amusement ride for kickers at times and if rain comes into play, we should see much more conservative play calling by OC's, a heavy dose of run, which favors both under the total and taking the pts (ATL, MIA, WAS and maybe CLE)

Tuesday, October 23, 2012

2012 - week 08 - picks

10/28 1:00 PM
219 NE -7 *
220 STL 47 UNDER


NE is 0-2 vs NFC west (loss to ARI & SEA).
Of all the NFC west teams, geographically STL isn't in the west. I expect STL to lose, they lack the
horses on O and can only play keep away to try and win at home, though +7 maybe enough to get the win

STL arrived on TUES, NE arriving on Friday
I'm wondering just how focused STL will be? They seem to really like their role as ambassadors, while NE is all business.

10/28 1:00 PM
221 IND 46½ UNDER
222 TEN -3½ ***

IND was lucky last week, no such luck @TEN

10/28 1:00 PM
223 JAC  45½   under
224 GB -15½ **

JAC - can't believe if QB Henne starts that they'll be much better than last week. They'll need to play
keep away to have any chance to win.
GB w/o S Woodson
update: 10/25 noted totals finally posted and side went up 3pts (I'm not changing my original pick), still this should be a 3TD game for GB, I 'd put the over/under for first downs by JAC at 5.5

10/28 1:00 PM
225 SD -3 OVER
226 CLE 44½ *


CLE O needs to step up, if they do, they win, if not SD gets a steal

10/28 1:00 PM
227 ATL 46½ **
228 PHI -2½ UNDER


Hard to take such an under performing team like PHI and even with firing of their DC, will this be enough
to have a sounder game on their O?Taking pts seems best. Should go under the total

10/28 1:00 PM
229 SEA 43 *
230 DET -3 UNDER

DET has the pleasure of playing another really good D with a secondary that can cover, so why again are
they favored? Even at home, they'll have a tough time stopping SEA ground game. UPSET of the week?

10/28 1:00 PM
231 MIA 40½ *
232 NYJ -2½ under


1st thought to take NYJ, but MIA, plays close, is coming off a bye and is a very healthy team, MIA gets
the season split

10/28 1:00 PM
233 CAR 44½ UNDER
234 CHI -7½ *****

Will firing of GM, awaken CAR team? doubtful, they have more problems then just awakening team
This could be a laugher...

10/28 1:00 PM
235 WAS 47½ *
236 PIT -5½ UNDER

Both team like to run, UNDER the total is the much better bet. PIT is slowing digressing, WAS is on the
rise and played a much better team than PIT did last week

10/28 4:05 PM
237 OAK 43 OVER
238 KC -1 *


OAK was just way too lucky last week, KC has a get well game on deck

10/28 4:25 PM
239 NYG 47½ *
240 DAL -1 UNDER

DAL is the weakest of NFC East D's
NYG gains the season split
update: noted line has moved to DAL +1½ to +2 and DAL will be w/o LB Sean Lee who was calling the plays for their D

10/28 8:30 PM
241 NO 54½ under?
242 DEN -6 *


I was thinking of NO @1st, but outdoors, altitude and a weak D will be NO undoing, even with the emotional lift of Vitt back as interim HC

10/29 8:40 PM
243 SF -7 *
244 ARI 37 UNDER


SF has returned to a run O and their D is that much better. ARI needs to find an O, UNDER the total is
the best bet

2012 - week 08 - Thursday pick

10/25 8:25 PM

103 TB 41½ *
104 MIN -6½ UNDER

TB on the road 0-2 SU, 2-0 ATS
MIN has yet to lose (4-0) @home SU, 3-1 ATS

TB O seems to be on the rise
MIN O seems southward bound

TB D decent
MIN D dominating at time

edge goes to MIN ST, though TB field position may be in their favor

Why is line so much more than standard -3 or -3.5?

This should be an 11 possession game for each team
TB 1-3 scores 7-21
MIN 1-2 scores 7-14

If either D scores, game will go OVER total

HOME team on THURSDAY 4-1 SU 2-3 ATS, DOG 4-1 ATS

2012 - week 07 - results

So ATS above .500 record this weekend, but totals took a big dip and I was correct on about 1/3

A couple of pushes ATS & totals as well I suppose if I had added the 1/2 hook, I'd come out ahead but I'll just leave it at that.

Home teams TB, STL, NE & CIN all lost ATS and of course I had picked on them

GiB (Going into Bye) teams were 1-3 ATS (HOU - BAL, CIN, BUF)
CoB (Coming off Bye) teams were 2-1-1 ATS (JAC, NO - CAR - CHI)

"Young teams"

TB plays really well in 1st half vs "teams it finds challenging", then no well in 2nd half. So bet on 1st half, bet against 2nd half

BUF allowed TEN QB Hasselbeck & Co. to stage the comeback win

JAC scores only 6pts after both their star RB Jones-Drew and their QB Gabbert left the game due to injuries, and you can stick them in the 'young' team category, because they couldn't put away OAK, though they did have a tougher task on the road and down two starters. AND JAC HC/OC made a curious 4th-and-1 to go in Q2, just punt you had a 17-3 lead....

  CIN plays like a young team and didn't seem to know how to put away PIT after seemingly having a ground game in Q1 that was unstoppable

and in the battle of young teams CLE @IND, the home team won SU

Thursday, October 18, 2012

2012 - week 07 - picks

10/21 1:00 PM
415 TEN 46½ ***
416 BUF -3½ under

I'm thinking BUF was a bit lucky to win last week and TEN QB Hasselbeck is in early season form, already!

10/21 1:00 PM
417 ARI 40½ UNDER
418 MIN -6 *

ARI D is really good, so is MIN, difference is O

10/21 1:00 PM
419 CLE 45 *
420 IND -3 over

CLE coming off a much needed win, I don't think there will be a letdown. IND D is lacking....

10/21 1:00 PM
421 BAL 48½ OVER
422 HOU -6½ *

HOU should cover, with the demise of BAL D on display for the past several weeks (and seasons according to some talking heads) they may need 10+pts

10/21 1:00 PM
423 GB -5½ under
424 STL 44½ *

Taking the pts, seems sound STL @home, good D, O plays UP and ST should be OK. GB off big win, I don't think they'll see man2man D the rest of the season

10/21 1:00 PM
425 DAL -2½ *
426 CAR 45½ UNDER

you know if DAL could put 'IT' together they could swamp CAR, who has no ID on O and D is starting to stink

10/21 1:00 PM
427 WAS 50 *
428 NYG -6½ OVER

Can WAS sweep NYG again like last year?

10/21 1:00 PM
429 NO -3 UNDER
430 TB 49½ *

Unsure if I should take TB, I don't trust their O, but I trust NO D even less

10/21 4:25 PM
431 NYJ 47 under
432 NE -10½ *

NE will get the win and hopefully the cover, DD is large, just I still can't trust NYJ to stay within number

10/21 4:25 PM
433 JAC 43 *
434 OAK -4 OVER

Thought about taking OAK, thought about JAC, just took the pts, this is a stay away game...

10/21 8:30 PM
435 PIT -2½ OVER
436 CIN 46 *

Way too many inj's for PIT to be road fav

10/22 8:40 PM
437 DET 47½ UNDER
438 CHI -6 **

CHI D even w/Urlacher in twilight, can still stop DET O with consistency. The question is can DET D stop CHI O?

Tuesday, October 16, 2012

2012 - week 07 - Thursday pick

10/18 8:25 PM

303 SEA 37½ *
304 SF -7 OVER

SEA plays with chip on shoulder, lost last year 2x to SF, they should be UP for this game

2012 - week 06 - results

Ouch after two good weeks, a week where I missed alot, even totals were just .500 at 7-7, ATS 4-10

Thursday game
PIT really beat up, TEN QB Hasselbeck is out of pre-season mode and WR Britt is back as well, TEN D still misses tackles, but they won @home, chalk it up for the dog

note: Home teams for Thursday night games are 4-1 SU 2-3 ATS, the 'dog is 4-1 ATS

Unusual game MIN Q1 appeared to be in control, WAS controlled the rest of the game Q2-4 scoring 38pts

noted: Total posted for MIN @WAS, 47 and -1 MIN @donbest.com (day after game completed)

BUF and BAL appeared to be a bit lucky in their wins, next week I expect them to lose.

NYG, NYJ & GB dominated, hey just noticed all NY state teams won this past weekend

DEN spotted SD a 24-0 lead at half time and took over 2nd half for the win

Wednesday, October 10, 2012

2012 - week 06 - picks

10/14 1:00 PM

209 CIN -1 under
210 CLE 44½ *

CLE splits div series w/CIN?

10/14 1:00 PM
211 IND 42½ under
212 NYJ -3 *

IND off an emo game, should be in letdown mode...

10/14 1:00 PM
213 KC 41 *
214 TB -3½ under


10/14 1:00 PM
215 OAK 48½ under
216 ATL -8½ ***


10/14 1:00 PM
217 DAL 43½ over
218 BAL -3½ *

In this once every 4 yrs series BAL is 3-0

10/14 1:00 PM
219 DET 47½ over
220 PHI -3½ *


10/14 1:00 PM
221 STL 37½ *
222 MIA -3½ under


10/14 4:05 PM
223 NE -3½ *
224 SEA 44 under

NE O is playing really well, should this be -6?
SEA O can only run

10/14 4:05 PM
225 BUF 43 UNDER
226 ARI -4½ *

Has anyone noticed for BUF that score difference has been at least 10pts this year? Or that their D and O
sputters in the 2ndHalf of games?
BUF is staying out on West Coast prior to this game.

10/14 4:25 PM
227 MIN ? *
228 WAS -2½ under

It's Friday and still no number for total and most sportbooks have no line... sigh

10/14 4:25 PM
229 NYG 45½ over
230 SF -6 *

NYG HC Coughlin playing underdog role

10/14 8:30 PM
231 GB 48½ under
232 HOU -3½ *

10/15 8:40 PM
233 DEN 50½ *
234 SD -1½ over


CoB = Coming off bye
GiB = Going into bye

Tuesday, October 09, 2012

simpler is faster


you just gotta read it all and note that NE HC Belichick picked the brains of Oregon's HC Chip Kelly as well as Walsh's edict of using one word for play calls.

now if I could only hear the play called real time during the game.....

2012 - week 05 - results

Another good week of picks ATS and totals, which means I'm now on the plus side for the year for both totals and ATS, yeah!

This week BAL, PIT and HOU won their games but did not cover ATS (and I missed all these games). I also missed on SEA @CAR and it was a game which was a toss up for me, but SEA again dominated with D, a run O and fairly sound ST. CAR sputters on O and their D has yet to stop the run this year. I was just thinking CAR would turn it around this week @home, but it appears they are what they are....

2012 - week 06 - Thursday pick

10/11 8:25 PM

101 PIT 5½ **
102 TEN 43 under

PIT SU 0-2 on the road this year (DEN, OAK)
TEN has been throttled by solid D's
TY PIT D suspect w/o Polamalu
TEN QB Hasselbeck still in preseason mode

PIT should win and cover with TEN D unable to stop the run O of both MIN and HOU the past two weeks

note: This year, non-Sunday/Monday games have all gone UNDER the total

When the coach(es) call out the players

Did you notice this past week that BUF HC Gailey questioned the mental toughness of his team? And did you notice they still loss to SF on the road? They tried to hang with them in the first half, but again in the second half they collapsed as they did in the prior week @home vs NE ( a much hated division rival).

This past week TEN DC Jerry Gray also called out his defense for lack of toughness and how did they respond? Again they were run over roughshod by MIN. Prior week HOU took them to the woodshed

These public calling out of players I guess should be viewed as desperation by the coaches involved as they've probably tried everything else they can think of and it hasn't worked.

Both games had similarites, BUF & TEN faced teams known for their run O (SF & MIN) and D's that played solid. Maybe it was just 'haves' vs 'have nots' and the 'have not's' knew it and showed it

In short bet against these teams....

Wednesday, October 03, 2012

2012 - week 05 - picks

10/07 1:00 PM
411 ATL -3 **
412 WAS 50½ under

ATL only -3????

10/07 1:00 PM
413 PHI 44 under
414 PIT -3½ *

I would normally go with the over in this once every 4 yrs interstate rivaly, but Vick & Co sputter too much, PIT off a bye week should play better with rest and the return of Harrison & Polamalu.

10/07 1:00 PM
415 GB -7 under
416 IND 48 *

IND HC Pagano diagnosed w/leukemia,
OC Arians (Interim HC) tells players 'why can't we extend season for HC Pagano?'

10/07 1:00 PM
417 CLE 44 under
418 NYG -9 *

CLE WR's banged up, not practicing

10/07 4:25 PM
419 TEN 43½ UNDER
420 MIN -5½ **

giving up 5.5 with MIN seems like a lot, but their D should be able to stop TEN with QB Hasselbeck. I expect a short passing game from TEN and nothing much else. It's MIN D that is formidable and with a rocking home crowd will give TEN QB Hasselbeck & Co. headaches all game long

10/07 1:00 PM
421 MIA 44½ *
422 CIN -4½ over

MIA has played in 2OT games consecutively, Lots of spunk, taking points seems prudent

10/07 1:00 PM
423 BAL -5 **
424 KC 46½ UNDER

KC - smells like toast??

10/07 4:05 PM
425 SEA 43½ UNDER
426 CAR -3 *

This is a bit of a toss up to me, but SEA and long road trip should work against them

10/07 4:05 PM
427 CHI -5½ *****
428 JAC 40 UNDER

Going into bye week for both teams, CHI on a high, JAC on a low...
JAC has yet to play well @home, could be 0-4, except for "lucky win" @IND, spread could be -14½

10/07 4:25 PM
429 DEN 51½ OVER
430 NE -7 *

Two of the best O's play, which means that total is looking awfully small, unless both teams decide to run more often. O's are ahead of D's, thought of taking points, but both teams are coming off of wins over division rivals... this seems like a homer game

10/07 4:25 PM
431 BUF 44½ UNDER
432 SF -9½ **

BUF HC questions "mental toughness" of players

10/07 8:30 PM
433 SD 54 OVER
434 NO -3½ **

Another supreme effort from NO should easily get this over the total

10/08 8:35 PM
435 HOU -7½ **
436 NYJ 41 UNDER

And to pile on the bad news, HOU trounces NYJ, they should be embarrassed from last week, but I think they are still in the woe is me mode...

interestingly enough....

teams on bye this week DAL, DET, OAK, TB all lost last week

CoB Coming off bye
GiB Going into bye

the anti joe namath

Sometimes you read something and you just gotta let it be known for everyone else....


great piece of writing and stats mixed all into one....


again followed another blog entry from google reader and thought this was worthy ...


interestingly enough they had a spot on SF @MIN and we all know it was the upset of the week for wk 03

this week they are highlighting HOU chances of a 16-0 run, again interesting, but I guess with video it still captures my attention...

Compiling numbers for the "White Hats"

I was going thru google reader and noticed a blog entry for officials and lo and behold, it's a treasure trove of info...


Since umpires are the head of the officiating crew they get to wear the 'white hat'. I'll need to review the entries in detail at a later time and I hope to glean some useful info from a betting perpective

Tuesday, October 02, 2012

2012 - week 05 - Thursday - pick

10/04 8:25 PM

301 ARI -1 UNDER
302 STL 38½ *

since '07 ARI 9-1 vs STL (last 5 years)

ARI w/o DT Dockett, RB Wells, OL has issues

STL OL has issues as well, I'm just thinking HC Fisher will have another wrinkle and out coach Wisenhunt & Co.

2012 - week 04 - results

A very good week, especially for totals. I wonder if this is due to the regular referees being in charge or not? Or maybe it's just because I had a ten more hours to work with and make picks? Or because on the plane ride back to 'vegas I met a fellow passenger with an enthusiasm for football. Todd, who came into town for the body building event, picked fairly well ATS only missing on SEA, OAK, ARI, NO & DAL. He picked winners of SF, HOU, NE, MIN, CIN, WAS and got a push with NYG.

I wrote on the USAtoday Friday edition that CIN & WAS were my best bets and they came thru, but I had forgotten I blogged/picked CHI@DAL as an over game, but notated it as an under on the rag (sigh), the others total picks of WAS@TB under, NO@GB over and SF@NYJ under all came thru.

I never did get to watch the FSU @USF game (so much to do first day back from traveling), but I did notice on donbest.com that USF as a 'dog won the $$ and total went under the wire as well.

Maybe I haven't picked as well the past three weeks because I was on the road and couldn't put in the time to review teams, games, and/or situations. Now here's a situation to watch with MIA having played in consecutive OT games losing both SU (0-2), but ATS 1-1 and the totals going over twice. What will this third game be? I noticed MIA maybe a good first half bet and maybe over the total for the whole game, though I do expect adjustments in the totals numbers from the sportsbooks, we'll see....