Monday, December 31, 2012

2012 - week 18 - playoffs - picks

01/05 4:30 PM

101 CIN 43½ *
102 HOU -4½ OVER

HOU O has been so sporadic and CIN D is their real strength


01/05 8:00 PM
103 MIN 46 UNDER
104 GB -8 *

MIN should fall down from emo high of last weeks win. GB has yet to lose two in a row this season


01/06 1:00 PM
105 IND 46½ over
106 BAL -6½ *

on instinct I chose BAL and OVER, but after looking at the numbers ATS, picking IND seems to be the right thing to do, 46.5 may be a bit high, but road teams that win, tend to be an over game. BAL may yet win, but -6.5 is probably too much for them to cover
UPDATE: BAL MLB Ray Lewis announced retirement is one of those situational bets that's hard to ignore, (last game at home by a great team member), this will be a great lift emotionally for BAL. We already know of the 'Chuck Strong' incentive for IND and I think they're due for a let down, coupled with their inability to generate TO's (the worst of the remaining teams in the playoffs) and some other miserable stats, so I'm going back to instinct

01/06 4:30 PM
107 SEA -3 *
108 WAS 45½ OVER

Though I do like watching WAS O, SEA overall is a much stronger team

2012 - week 17 - results



An ok weekend I was above .500 ATS and dead even with totals. On the really bright side I correctly picked the side and total for six games, that's over a third correct

Odd how I missed late games again, picked correctly SU, but not ATS

CAR winning on the road was surprising, somehow I thought NO D would play better against the run.

I had thought about taking NYG, but took the win the last game for the coach angle, but when the opening onside kick by PHI did not lead to pts, I knew PHI was doomed.

HOU did not look good, MIN won on an emo high and I'm wondering if I should put WAS in the same category.

Thursday, December 27, 2012

2012 - week 17 - picks

Saturday, updated lines, switched pick from PIT to CLE (getting 10pts)
AWAITING LINES for CLE @PIT, TB @ATL, OAK @SD



12/30 1:00 PM
301 NYJ 39½ UNDER
302 BUF -3½ ***

oh jets we jest


12/30 4:25 PM
303 MIA 46½ under
304 NE -10 *

NE could win #1 or #2 seed


12/30 1:00 PM
305 BAL 41 UNDER
306 CIN -2½ **

bragging rights?
win or lose, both teams still in playoffs


12/30 1:00 PM
307 CLE 34½ *
308 PIT -10 UNDER

PIT should get the season split


12/30 1:00 PM
309 HOU -6½ over
310 IND 46½ *

HOU could win #1 or #2 seed
IND win or lose, still in playoffs


12/30 1:00 PM
311 JAC 42 under
312 TEN -4 *

hmmm?


12/30 1:00 PM
313 PHI 46 *
314 NYG -7½ UNDER

NYG needs win + DAL/CHI/MIN losses


12/30 8:30 PM
315 DAL 48½ OVER
316 WAS -3 *

DAL win and they're in
WAS win and they're in, lose still has a chance


12/30 1:00 PM
317 CHI -3 over
318 DET 44½ **

CHI needs win + MIN loss


12/30 4:25 PM
319 GB -3½ under
320 MIN 46½ *

GB win = 1st round bye, #2 seed
MIN win and they're in


12/30 1:00 PM
321 TB 45½ *
322 ATL -5 UNDER

ATL has secured first round and home field advantage
TB should be UP for this game


12/30 1:00 PM
323 CAR 54 UNDER
324 NO -5 *


12/30 4:25 PM
325 KC 42 UNDER
326 DEN -16 *

DEN could win #1 or #2 seed


12/30 4:25 PM
327 OAK 39½ UNDER
328 SD -9½ *

OAK QB ?


12/30 4:25 PM
329 ARI 39 UNDER
330 SF -16½ *

SF win = NFC West and #2 seed if GB loss
It might be better to go with dog

12/30 4:25 PM
331 STL 41 UNDER
332 SEA -10½ *

SEA win + SF loss = NFC West and #2 seed It might be better to go with dog

Wednesday, December 26, 2012

2012 - week 16 - results



Really good week ATS, just .500 for totals

I'm a bit late posting results as I'm still awaiting the Game Book .pdf file on the nfl.com site for the ATL @DET game. I've tried to contact nfl.com via 'contact us' link on their website to inform them that the game book is missing for the ATL @DET game. Though I am able to gleen some information from what's online, the accuracy that the gamebook .pdf file represents as an official record of the game itself is what I use an data entries for my spreadsheet and the accuracy of other sites is an unknown at this time.

NE couldn't cover a -14.5 spread on the road and DEN covered a -13 spread at home.
CHI and ARI are hard to read for me as they're not consistent enough in winning or losing.
I could've taken SEA using the split division or comparing how well STL has done vs SF this season


Sunday, December 23, 2012

2012 - week 16 - picks

whoops, must have hit save instead of publish.... sigh..



12/22 8:30 PM
101 ATL -3½ *
102 DET 50½ over

12/23 1:00 PM
103 TEN 46½ under
104 GB -12½ **

12/23 1:00 PM
105 OAK 46 UNDER
106 CAR -8½ *

12/23 1:00 PM
107 BUF 41½ under
108 MIA -4½ *

MIA should get season split


12/23 1:00 PM
109 CIN 42½ *
110 PIT -3½ over

CIN should earn season split


12/23 1:00 PM
111 NE -14½ **
112 JAC 50½ under

12/23 1:00 PM
113 IND -6½ **
114 KC 41½ UNDER

Where's KC O to come from? run O?


12/23 1:00 PM
115 NO 51½ *
116 DAL -3 over

12/23 1:00 PM
117 WAS -6½ *
118 PHI 45 over

12/23 1:00 PM
119 STL 43½ *
120 TB -3 over

12/23 4:25 PM
121 NYG -2½ UNDER
122 BAL 47½ *

BAL should be UP for this game against defending SB champs and they'll know they are the underdog


12/23 1:00 PM
123 MIN 44½ *
124 HOU -7½ under

somehow I think, MIN will stay within number


12/23 4:05 PM
125 CLE 44½ *
126 DEN -13 under

I just think CLE can play keep away to stay within number

12/23 4:25 PM
127 CHI -5½ UNDER
128 ARI 36½ *

Do I really have to pick? sigh...


12/23 8:30 PM
129 SF -1 *
130 SEA 39½ *UNDER*

12/23 1:00 PM
131 SD 38½ **
132 NYJ -2½ UNDER

Another game, that I rather just stay away from

Tuesday, December 18, 2012

2012 - week 15 - results



So I ended up 8-8 for both sides and totals, better than last week, but not good enough, I could've
changed a few picks prior to Sunday, but again I decided to stick with original picks

Weekend obsevations:
NYG @ATL,
NYG making mistakes and good teams take advantage, which is exactly what ATL did funny again I noticed a run TD, a pass TD and a FG, by the team in the lead, (NE has done this more than once this year for their first 3 scores)
ATL getting revenge for last year's playoff loss vs NYG could have been angle to take. ATL just seems to be running well, mixing in passes, getting NYG D off balance for the most part.

FOX switched over to GB @CHI with less than two minutes in third quarter and GB stones CHI for four downs allowing a FG on fifth down (penalty on fourth down). This game doesn't seem anymore competitive than NYG @ATL, they should've switched over to WAS @CLE (if they had the broadcast rights)

FOX also shows last 2 minutes of MIN @STL, which should be called MIN runs away with win, just say ALL DAY...

DEN @BAL, D's for both teams play fairly well. With less than two minutes left in the half DEN CB Harris interception returned for a TD was a killer, taking the air out of the BAL home crowd and team as well. DEN connection Manning to Decker works a big play for TD and BAL 2ndary appears to have given in

CBS switched over to IND @HOU a much more interesting game, nearing the end of 3rd Q, HOU has field position edge, extends lead, D plays well, gains AFC South title.

This morning, a lot of one sided games, only WAS @CLE and IND @HOU appears to be competitive, though WAS really picks it up in 2nd half and HOU dominates Q4

PIT @DAL, odd seeing so many PIT fans in DAL, you'd have thought DAL would make it a home game, by having more DAL fans. I think it fired up DAL, they seemed to play with more passion at home. PIT D is suspect w/Polamalu having to roam deeper than normal. DAL O kept getting those 8-12yd chunks easily. Looks like PIT won't make playoffs this year, too many things have to go right for them to get into playoffs.

Was NE a bit over confident with home game in DEC streak? SF took it to them it the beginning, NE made a run at SF later on in the game, but it wasn't enough. As far as ebbs & flows throughout the game, SF withstood the floods and shored it up in the end. A memorable SNF game

Wednesday, December 12, 2012

2012 - week 15 - picks (includes Thursday)

12/13 8:25 PM

301 CIN -4½ ***
302 PHI 45½ under

Watched PHI @TB, TB DL played very well, 2ndary ok for the most part, TB O was off, timing, route running even play calling was a bit suspect. CIN should have won last week, can't see them losing to PHI whose OL will be mashed again by an even better DL


12/16 1:00 PM
303 GB -3 *
304 CHI 42½ over

normally I'd go with the season series split, but CHI has too much roster churn as well as looking like a 20's team (moves the ball between 20's, doesn't score often enough to win). GB don't beat up themselves just have better parts that play together more consistently especially on O


12/16 1:00 PM
305 NYG 51½ ***
306 ATL -1½ UNDER

So why is ATL favored?


12/16 1:00 PM
307 TB 54 *
308 NO -3½ under

TB should be able to get the series split
NO D embarrass'd? by NYG O last week


12/16 1:00 PM
309 MIN 38½ OVER
310 STL -3 *

The winner will have playoff hopes, the loser will not


12/16 1:00 PM
311 WAS 37½ ***
312 CLE -7 OVER

WAS QB RGIII will he play? even if not, WAS is playing overall fairly well and though CLE has been on a roll lately, I think they'll fail at home to end their 3G streak


12/16 1:00 PM
313 JAC 37½ UNDER
314 MIA -7 ***

JAC most banged up team? since Nov began cutting vets depth issues @OL, RB, WR, DL, LB


12/16 1:00 PM
315 DEN -2½ **UNDER**
316 BAL 48½ *

BAL OC Cameron fired, QB coach Caldwell (xIND HC) promoted to OC
BAL will need to play keep away from perhaps the smartest QB in the game today. This should be a close
game, taking pts seems prudent, UNDER the total is much more tempting


12/16 1:00 PM
317 IND 48 OVER
318 HOU -8 ***

HOU QB Shaub tends to put up big numbers, after a poor game. IND has been on a roll, a bit lucky, not sure if HOU will cover number, but ???


12/16 4:05 PM
319 CAR 45½ *
320 SD -3 over

You'd think CAR HC Rivera who was DC @SD, would have a much better game plan on how to stop QB Rivers & Co.


12/16 4:05 PM
321 SEA -5½ ****
322 BUF 42½ UNDER

BUF among most beat up teams


12/16 4:05 PM
323 DET -6 ****
324 ARI 43½ under

ARI quit?? ARI O is sooooo bad, I'm thinking DET O will not score more than 42pts


12/16 4:25 PM
325 PIT -2 *
326 DAL 44 over

PIT what to think?
DAL emo week? letdown game, drained game?
DAL WR Bryant plays?


12/16 4:25 PM
327 KC 43½ UNDER
328 OAK -3 ***

KC WR Bowe IR OFY (their #1WR), RB Charles inj'd?
OAK RCB & FB2 cut, youth movement


12/16 8:30 PM
329 SF 46½ UNDER
330 NE -5½ *

NE plays div opponents close and blows everyone else out the door since wk06 loss to SEA unsure who to take, but on the road SF QB Kaepernick, made mistakes, he probably needs more seasoning


12/17 8:40 PM
331 NYJ 41½ **
332 TEN -1½ UNDER

TEN DC distracted by TX Tech HC opportunity?
NYJ doing the weekly keep playoff hope alive

Tuesday, December 11, 2012

2012 - week 14 - results


2nd week in a row of not so good results for both ATS and Totals, though ATS improved, Totals sunk below .500 for the week

Game Thoughts:
DEN - a good win, though not quite dominating as they scored more FGs than TDs

NYG ST RB/PR Wilson great game, NO Brees does fairly well, but again throws too many interceptions, NO D, not tackling well that will do them in and ST allowing big gains, the whole team is not playing without enough focus to win games

Lots of upsets,

STL @BUF, predictable, BUF had to shuffle OL (though TEN also had OL shuffle but led IND on the road for about half of the game)

CHI @MIN, I should've taken MIN I knew better with CHI D hit hard by injuries and OL having issues, just hard to trust MIN O and play calling, in prior weeks I would've called more running plays

ATL @CAR, ATL letdown? next game after winning AFC South, but more likely two starters in secondary did not play SS and RCB
Stranger things have happened, but why is CAR starting LB Hogue @RG? or is this an error?
CAR also had FIVE new starters on D @NT, @DT, @SLB, @SS and @RCB, all three levels
CAR led 23-0 in Q3 and earns the season series split!


SD @PIT, I think PIT QB Roethlisberger came back too soon from injury, SD does have job motivation, after recent news of HC & GM will be losing their jobs at the end of season, players are playing/auditioning for next season

PHI @TB, eye opener, nice QB'g by PHI Foles, ??TB?? - I did not see this, I really thought TB D would be able to contain PHI O

DAL @CIN, CIN could've won, but let DAL hang around. DAL emo win w/tragic death on Saturday a.m. of a team mate and another team mate (starting NT) in jail for intoxication manslaughter.
Note: 2nd wk in a row, a tragic death for a team mate, provides emotional lift for whole team (KC, DAL)

current line vs prior to season line

DEN @OAK 9pt change
BAL @WAS 6pt change
KC @CLE 8pt change
PHI @TB 13pt change
ARI @SEA 6.5pt change


DEN, BAL, CLE, SEA won SU and ATS
Only TB lost SU and ATS

a good sign for nfl.com

http://blogs.nfl.com/2012/12/11/you-cant-handle-the-truth-5-truths-nfl-teams-need-to-hear/

not bad, pretty good, I like it..... ha ha ha

Tuesday, December 04, 2012

Week 14 - GRID

Here's the GRID prior to week 14 games

Bright Green have a playoff berth
Forest Green are leading their division
Orange are current wild card entrants if the playoffs were to begin today
Blue are teams with a chance to become playoff entrant

Somehow the AFC East has 4 teams that are still relevant for the playoffs, though as you can see I don't believe in NYJ and I think they'll lose on the road to the JAC who may not have much of a running game.

CIN, WAS & TB have a good chance of getting into playoffs, should the current wild card entrants stumble

Of all the wild card entrants, clearly CHI is only in contention due to their W-L record, but their team is beat up and not playing well along their OL at this time

Of the teams out of contention, CLE, JAC & STL are rising and playing better football (as compared to the beginning of season)

2012 - week 14 - picks (includes Thursday)

Still waiting for numbers on SD @PIT game
12/7 Updated lines for SD @PIT, notable late inj's JAC WR Shorts, TEN & BUF OL "shuffle"


12/06 8:25 PM

101 DEN -10½ *
102 OAK 49½ UNDER

DEN still looking for that dominating win, OAK is the early x-mas present


12/09 1:00 PM
105 BAL 47½ under
106 WAS -2½ *

The total is the safer bet


12/09 1:00 PM
107 KC 37½ under
108 CLE -5 *

KC last week emo game, can't expect the same 2 wks in a row


12/09 1:00 PM
109 SD 41½ under
110 PIT -8 *

SD may keep game close, but PIT D will get TOs


12/09 1:00 PM
111 TEN 48½ UNDER
112 IND -5½ *

IND on a roll and @home vs TEN w/new OC


12/09 1:00 PM
113 NYJ -2½ UNDER
114 JAC 38½ **

JAC at home again, will run O be ok?
Though NYJ is in the playoff hunt I think they are already on vacation


12/09 1:00 PM
115 CHI -3 *
116 MIN 39½ OVER

CHI beat up? worn down?
MIN will need to play keep away to win, which is doubtful w/only a run game and a QB that sucks


12/09 1:00 PM
117 ATL -3½ *
118 CAR 47½ UNDER

ATL should dominate game


12/09 1:00 PM
119 PHI 47 OVER
120 TB -7 *

PHI another desperate move w/firing of DL coach


12/09 1:00 PM
121 STL 42 ***
122 BUF -3 UNDER

STL coming off big win over div rival SF
BUF C and RT out, OL shuffle

12/09 1:00 PM
123 DAL 45½ OVER
124 CIN -3 ***

DAL OL???
CIN DL+++


12/09 4:05 PM
125 MIA 39 *
126 SF -10 UNDER

Can't trust SF QB Kaepernick even in a home game


12/09 4:25 PM
127 NO 53 UNDER
128 NYG -5 *

hmmm, mixed thoughts....


12/09 4:25 PM
129 ARI 34½ UNDER
130 SEA -10½ ****

will the line go to -14?


12/09 8:30 PM
131 DET 51½ *
132 GB -7 OVER

DET should return the favor to GB and split the season series


12/10 8:40 PM
133 HOU 51½ over
134 NE -4 *

HOU 2ndary banged up, CBx3 inj'd

2012 - week 13 - results



I sucked ATS (4-11-1) this weekend and did really well on totals (9-7).

Game thoughts:

No morning game on FOX sucks (though afternoon game was PIT @BAL), watched NE @MIA real time (CBS), MIA makes mistakes, NE run D is not good or MIA run play calling is good. Notables: MIA LT Jake Long inj'd Q1. NE has some really nice O play calling in the first half, just fools D. MIA Q3 D picks up

TB played hard nosed football @DEN, they did much better than I thought they would going from sea level to mile high altitude. DEN owned TB during Q3, else the majority of game was fairly even

SNF - DAL again started slow in 1st half, you could take pts in 1st w/DAL and make some steady income. PHI did better, but not good enough to beat DAL

I thought CLE QB Weeden was not going to play and QB McCoy would start, turns out Weeden passes his concussion test later on in the week and I didn't change my pick


NYJ QB Sanchez benched, QB McElroy subs Q3 vs ARI

An emotionally charged KC gets the home win
ATL did win SU and covered ATS as well, should've just taken home team for Thursday night. NO has now 7 ints in 2 games, looks like it's time to play against NO as a favorite. When ATL airport workers egged NO bus, that was a clue as to emotions for this game. ATL did score in first half, but found it tough in 2n half. NO QB Brees loss the game more than ATL won it.


Late notable news:
KC LB Belcher commits murder-suicide (girl friend), he left behind a 3month old daughter, why? shoots himself in front of GM & HC, very radical, highly distraught, why?

late numbers posted for PIT @BAL -7 total 36½


3 blacked out games
JAC @BUF
CLE @OAK
CIN @SD

Only BUF won as the home team, JAC did come in hot, but I think the weather did them in as well as losing their RB Jennings and BUF using two RBs


current line vs prior 2 season line
CAR @KC 6pt change
CIN @SD 7pt change
PHI @DAL 10pt change

Only CIN won SU and ATS
DAL won SU, but lost ATS
CAR lost SU and ATS

Thursday, November 29, 2012

signs of a .... (fill in the blank) team

http://www.nationalfootballpost.com/Signs-that-your-team-is-headed-nowhere.html

Just a great read, Bechta names the good teams, gives a few examples of going nowhere teams and a little more....

Tuesday, November 27, 2012

2012 - week 13 - picks (includes Thursday)

Still waiting on a line for PIT @BAL game, but I don't think the number will make me change my mind



11/29 8:25 PM

301 NO 56 *
302 ATL -3½ under

ATL should get the season split, but I'll take the pts w/Brees & Co.


12/02 1:00 PM
339 SEA 37½ *
340 CHI -4 UNDER

SEA should've won last week SEA on the road has a losing record
CHI is banged up
I think this will be another close 3pt game


12/02 1:00 PM
341 MIN 46½ *
342 GB -9 under

numbers seems really large when you consider GB K has missed nearly half of his FG attempts (last 15) and GB OL has issues


12/02 1:00 PM
343 SF -7 *
344 STL 40 over

It's probably safer to take the pts, but STL has lost last 2 games @home (GB 10pts & NYJ 14pts)


12/02 1:00 PM
345 ARI 36½ UNDER
346 NYJ -4½ *****

could be a laugher...

12/02 1:00 PM
347 CAR -3 **
348 KC 40½ over

CAR DT Edwards IR OFY
KC expected to be w/o S Lewis and ST McCluster


12/02 1:00 PM
349 IND 51 over
350 DET -4½ ***

IND has to prove it can win on the road, I think IND will split vs NFC North and be 2-2
wins vs MIN and GB, loss to CHI


12/02 1:00 PM
351 JAC 44½ **
352 BUF -6 OVER

TOTAL IS TOO LOW


12/02 1:00 PM
353 NE -7½ *
354 MIA 51 under

NE will most likely sweep MIA, I'm just not sure about the cover


12/02 1:00 PM
355 HOU -5½ OVER
356 TEN 47 *

HOU banged up @LB
TEN new OC Loggains
OC is an unknown quantity, thus a stay away game


12/02 4:05 PM
357 TB 50½ UNDER
358 DEN -7 *

Really tempted to take TB, but last week vs ATL was an emo game


12/02 4:25 PM
359 PIT UNDER
360 BAL ***

PIT banged up @OL, RB, D


12/02 4:25 PM
361 CLE 45 UNDER
362 OAK -1 *

CLE QB McCoy expected to start
this game is hard to pick, CLE could win w/just running game, but will they?


12/02 4:25 PM
363 CIN -1½ **
364 SD 46½ UNDER

SD last week was the last hurrah


12/02 8:30 PM
365 PHI 43 UNDER
366 DAL -9 ***

PHI NO SKILL PLAYERS.....
PHI cut starting DE, desperate move AGAIN!


12/03 8:40 PM
367 NYG -2½ OVER
368 WAS 51 *

NYG no pep talk this week
WAS gains the season split

2012 - week 12 - results



All the home teams lost on Thanksgiving, what a bunch of turkeys, lol, really one sided except for DET, who again couldn't help but make mistakes, they should win next week

wow, HOU @DET, a rule I never knew where a penalty will negate the review of a TD. If a play is challenged and cannot be contested, a penalty will be enforced. Enforcing the penalty will supercede the review of a TD and allow the TD to count.

The referees are correct IMO on not whistling the play dead in the 3rd Q where RB Forsett appears to be down on TV review, but during the play itself, the referees did not see his forearm/elbow on the turf. So Forsett scores a TD and normally it would have been reviewed as all TDs are reviewed, but DET HC Schwartz challenges the play with his flag tossing and incurs a penalty (because TDs cannot be challenged and if they are challenged then the challenging team will be penalized). IF he had not thrown the flag, the TD would have been ruled nil and play would have resumed where RB Forsett had gone down w/his forearm/elbow.

here's an official nfl link http://nflcommunications.com/2012/11/22/rule-explanation-from-houston-detroit-game/

notables: HOU D, LB Reed out Q1 due to groin injury, HOU 2ndary is again torched for the 2nd week in a row. DET QB Stafford is just tossing it for grabs to WR Megatron. DET is playing on an emotional high.
HOU D tackling is an issue

WAS is blowing out DAL a the half 28-3, but Joe Buck Jr, believes in DAL w/statements like they're (DAL) within 3scores. LOL game is not even close, only DAL D makes it interesting w/hits on WAS QB Griffen. DAL DE?LB Ware makes a huge hit on WAS QB Griffen

notables: DAL LB Carter out Q4 due to inj (unknown)

I wish the announcers would notice that WR's that are coming out of college spread O are doing well.
WRs that came out of Hawaii when June Jones was coach and now coaching @SMU do well in the nfl.
The same can be said for WR out of Texas Tech when Mike Leach was coach, though we'll need a few years before we'll see a WR from Wash St as he just began coaching there. OK St is also another hot bed where WR's should be looked at closely. These WR route running adjustments to what the D does is what makes the spread O go, maybe we'll see one out of Oregon and their prolific spread. I always say they have to "hands"

PFT quotes Chris Collinsworth with the gem "Sanchez might want to chant for Tebow" after he got sacked yet again, which was probably the best part of the game in a laugher for NE as NYJ and it's own ineptitude won't quiet even their fans

Overall I did ok ATS (2 games were 'push'), not so good on totals (below .500)

Wednesday, November 21, 2012

2012 - week 12 - picks

note: MIN @CHI ATS/Total line is late, will need to update...
11/23 updated #'s
11/25 MIN @CHI significant move from CHI pk to -6/-6½



11/25 1:00 PM
221 OAK 49 UNDER
222 CIN -8 *****

The return of QB Palmer, clear edge w/CIN


11/25 1:00 PM
223 PIT -1 under
224 CLE 34½ *

PIT QB Batch starts
I'm thinking the outright win for CLE


11/25 1:00 PM
225 BUF 51½ *
226 IND -3 OVER

OVER the total seems far more prudent, taking the pts in what should be a close game


11/25 1:00 PM
227 DEN -10½ **
228 KC 44 **UNDER**

DEN w/o RB McGahee
KC fans are angry, KC QB Quinn starts
total seems way too high

I don't think KC will score more than 10pts, if they do, say 14pts or more taking pts would be more prudent. I just think DEN won't score more than 24 pts for this game

HUGE 11.5pt swing since prior2season


11/25 1:00 PM
229 TEN -3 OVER
230 JAC 43½ *

CoB TEN
JAC should be UP for this game @home w/div rival sandwich'g games vs AFC East for their last 6 games


11/25 1:00 PM
231 MIN 38½ *
232 CHI -6½\UNDER

CoB MIN
CHI run D shredded by SF run O last week
CHI run O nearly missing in action (until Q3) vs SF run D
will MIN duplicate SF effort on the road?
MIN is 0-4 @CHI

One thing of note MIN QB Ponder is nowhere near as athletic as SF QB Kaepernick, but may have the better arm and more time as a starting QB, just his WR's drop the ball too much

CHI QB Cutler starts?


11/25 1:00 PM
233 ATL -1 UNDER
234 TB 49½ *

Both teams were lucky last weekend, ATL was 'luckier' (is that a word?)


11/25 1:00 PM
235 SEA -3 ****
236 MIA 37½ UNDER

CoB SEA
for MIA this is the 1st game of a tough stretch, next up NE, then SF

6pt swing since prior2season


11/25 4:05 PM
237 BAL -1½ *
238 SD 47 UNDER

IS SD DONE?


11/25 4:25 PM
239 SF -1½ under
240 NO 49 *

SF RUN O vs NO D
NO PASS O vs SF D
after such a great game by SF O, I expect a letdown


11/25 4:25 PM
241 STL 37½ *
242 ARI -2½ UNDER

The total is easily the better bet, taking STL due to better QB in Bradford than ARI choice of Skelton or
Lindsey

ARI RB Wells returns, does he start?
ARI QB Lindley starts (1st)


11/25 8:30 PM
243 GB 49½ *
244 NYG -2½ over

CoB NYG
I want to pick NYG @home, GB OL may have issues w/NYG DL and GB D will be w/o LB Matthews, but NYG QB Manning is not having a good year and GB QB Rodgers is playing really well even w/o all his WR's. If NYG can produce w/run O, then they should win easily, if not taking points seems to be the better move


11/26 8:40 PM
245 CAR -2½ *
246 PHI 41½ UNDER

CAR new K Gano
is PHI done? w/o Vick & McCoy?
I just hope this game is deserving of MNF

9.5pt swing since prior2season

Rookie Review and some thoughts on finishing 8-8 for the season

Kevin Fishbain of PFW writes an excellent review, not too long, not too short, just right in length and content http://www.profootballweekly.com/story/permalink/36394


This is week 12 of NFL season and every team has had their bye week and played 10 games. With 6 games to go, most fans are viewing the playoff picture and the potential for their team, but what about those that are out of the running for the playoffs? How should we view them? In particular for this week is their an angle to be aware of that can produce a winner ATS?

One particular angle that will recur each week is the aim for these teams with losing records to end up 8-8 or .500 for the season.

Out of the running are the 1-9 teams JAC and KC who had their chance last week with JAC putting up a surprising performance nearly getting the upset vs division rival HOU (they appear ready for spoiler role) and KC looks like you could stick a fork in them @home vs CIN.

This week the 2-8 teams to be aware of are CLE and CAR.

CLE put up a game effort @DAL last weekend and this week at home I expect another solid effort vs division rival PIT. This year PIT is nowhere near as dominant as in past years and CLE is playing a solid D with a questionable O (their skill players aren't good enough IMO) as well as HC play calling/game mgmt "curious".  I'll take the pts @home with CLE, it just doesn't seem smart to take PIT on the road against a division rival.

CAR is @PHI and though they played well for most of the game last week @home vs division rival TB, they again had curious game management or play calling late in the game and lost their game. Their opponent this week PHI is on such a downhill roll, that I don't expect them to stop combine that with the appearance on MNF for CAR and it's hard to side with PHI (note: if PHI loses this week, they'll be 3-8 and back here in my thoughts of teams trying to finish 8-8, if CLE wins they also will be in the race to .500)

On a similar note with PHI 3-7 record are OAK and STL. OAK goes to CIN and STL goes to ARI. Just looking at QB's I'd think CIN D is ready for OAK QB Palmer due to familiarity, so CIN has an edge.
ARI rookie QB Lindley will be making his first start and due to ARI history with developing young QBs, I can only look at STL for this game.

4-6 teams this week have a chance to make playoffs so I won't be looking at them in the same light as the non-playoff teams.

Tuesday, November 20, 2012

2012 - week 12 Thursday picks

hmmm... can't blog all games due to no numbers for four games - PIT @CLE, MIN @CHI, SF @NO, CAR @PHI
ok so .... guessing...
PIT will start QB Batch, PIT -2.5
MIN will still be w/o WR Harvin and CHI will start QB Campbell (I think), CHI -2.5
SF will start QB Kaepernick, SF -2.5
PHI will be w/o RB McCoy and QB Vick, CAR -2.5



11/22 12:30 PM

103 HOU -3 *
104 DET 50½ under

HOU safeties & CB coverage were exposed by JAC, which is the strength of DET O, just DET D will have a tough time vs HOU O multi prong attack

DYK? since 2004, DET 0-8 SU on Thanksgiving see: http://pfref.com/tiny/rm0pW

DET benches WR Young, Is HC trying to regain control of locker room?
I'm just thinking, with such a great effort put forth by both HOU & DET in Sunday's game that this will be a "turkey" game


11/22 4:15 PM
105 WAS 48 *
106 DAL -3½ over

DAL needs to stick to short game to win, but I don't think they will
DAL tends to win on Thursdays w/o only 2 losses, since '05
I know I'm going against DAL trend, but this will be the first time for DAL to see WAS QB RGIII. I'm thinking RGIII will come out hot in first half and this time DAL won't be able to recover in 2nd half (as it did vs CLE) and win game. This should be the tightest game with DAL curious play calling and inability to adjust on the fly, instead of always seemingly to wait until the half or even into 3rd Q to go to shorter, quicker throws and screens.

11/22 8:20 PM
107 NE -6½ *
108 NYJ 48½ under

NYJ beat STL last week due to familiarity w/STL OC who was their OC. Sure NYJ is familiar w/NE as well, the difference appears to be NE even w/o TE Gronk should handle their nemesis due to their current level of play, which is so much above NYJ.
In order for NYJ to win, they will need to play keep away, but they don't have a solid running game. NEs run D this year is better and their recent addition of CB Aqib Talib makes their pass D even better. This could be a 35 - 3 game, yes a laugher.

2012 - week 11 - results

UPSETS in the making....

CLE @DAL, - a tale of two halves, CLE dominates w/RUN O and PASS D in 1st half, DAL changes gear in 2nd half going to short game, 'til they get the lead in Q4. CLE fails to score on 4th & Goal and DAL w/ball chooses to run ball thrice seemingly middle of the line plays and is stonewalled by CLE RUN D, with ensuing DAL punt you could guess that CLE will score as DAL shanks punt and ST penalty places CLE within red zone. CLE scores TD, DAL trys to score TD with DAL just has too much conservative play calling and it really shows in the last 3 min or so
Another odd thing was the play clock was inoperable around Q4 10:35 left in the game
Game goes to OT and DAL wins w/a FG

JAC @HOU, - JAC subs QB Henne in Q1 (Gabbert inj) and what a spark, JAC grabs lead and HOU has to continually comeback and tie game. Game goes to OT, both teams score a FG, HOU holds off JAC w/TD

TB @CAR, CAR D scores a TD via interception return, and seemingly controls the game into Q4, TB scores TD w/
ARI @ATL, - ATL QB Ryan throws 5 ints & 0 TDs, ARI benches QB Skelton for rookie QB Lindley (curious move - if you're not seeing your starter in a favorable light, why not give the rookie all the snaps during your bye week and let him start?). ATL scores in Q4 to break tie and get win. ATL lucky, very fortunate

NYJ @STL, - NYJ getting the upset and overcoming the season's turmoil for a win on the road.




Games with large point movements - results

WAS dominates
TB proves grit with late Q4 TD to tie and OT TD to win
NYJ has awakened? with road upset @STL
CIN allows the early KC score and dominates the rest of the way
BAL gets the win, withstanding early PIT TD who sputters after that... (BAL did not cover 3.5pt spread)

Favorites 4-1 SU  3-2 ATS

Wednesday, November 14, 2012

week 11 games with large point movement

Since lines are posted prior to the season starting I have begun to track "before start of season" ATS numbers and current ATS numbers

This week games where ATS line has moved 6pts or more :

PHI @ WAS, was PHI -3.5, now WAS -3.5

TB @CAR, was CAR -6, now TB -3.5

NYJ @STL, was NYJ -3, now STL -3

CIN @KC, was KC -2.5, now CIN -3.5

BAL @PIT, was PIT -3, now BAL -3.5


Of all the games for this weekend, where there has been at least a 6pt swing, there should be an upset.
I list the games that I believe an upset will occur.

I wouldn't be surprised if PIT as a home dog wins outright and upsets BAL. I expect PIT to return to the run game and BAL is coming off a high from a high scoring game. BAL should have a return to normalcy and this year their normal appears to be a D that is on the downslope and an O that chooses at times to not run the ball, when they should be running the ball

KC @home is another game that has a high chance of an upset occuring. I know, I know, CIN has played well (last week) and KC has TO issues. I'm just not sold on CIN away from home and solving TO's are correctable. KC has also played well vs AFC North brethren BAL and PIT. Maybe KC just stays within -3.5 number, maybe they get the outright win

I have a harder time believing in NYJ causing an upset, due to STL coaching which is far superior to NYJ

again the coaching/staffing issue is also occuring with CAR and TB going in opposite directions

and as well with PHI and WAS

note: last week (week 10) their were three games and there was an upset of ATL @NO (8pt movement). The other two games IND @JAC (6.5pt movement) and SD @TB (6pt movement) were covers by the favorite.

prior weeks 6 thru 9 = none (and I didn't track wks 1-5).

2012 - week 11 - picks (includes Thursday)

11/15 8:25 PM

305 MIA 45½ UNDER
306 BUF -1½ *

MIA D appears to be injured, but not listed on injury reports. For example I recall watchin' NT Soliai come out of a game a couple weeks ago (or was it more?). Perhaps there's more under reporting of inj's by MIA
BUF has a number of inj's but has played much better on O the past 2 games. Changing directions? BUF appears to be going UP and MIA DOWN

mid 30's, near freezing temperatures


11/18 1:00 PM
411 PHI 43½ OVER
412 WAS -3½ ***

PHI QB Foles(rookie) to start
CoB WAS
Rookie QBs to start against weak D's, we should see more scoring, edge goes to home team


11/18 1:00 PM
413 GB -3½ *
414 DET 51½ over?

CoB GB
GB should be way UP for this game, considering game @ DET last year (Thanksgiving w/DET DT Suh foot stomp on leg of GB OL Dietrich-Smith)
DET appears to have shored up 2ndary w/pick up of CB Lee and activation of CB Florence


11/18 1:00 PM
415 ARI 44 *
416 ATL -10 UNDER

CoB ARI
I don't think ARI will win due to inj's on D, but ATL win by 10pts? ATL seems to play tight games at home


11/18 1:00 PM
417 TB -1½ ***
418 CAR 48½ UNDER

CAR ST coach FIRED, desperate move/change


11/18 1:00 PM
419 CLE 43½ UNDER
420 DAL -7½ *

CoB CLE
MUST WIN for DAL to stay in playoff contention I'm not sure giving up the 1/2 pt is a smart thing


11/18 1:00 PM
421 NYJ 38½ UNDER
422 STL -3 ***

NYJ O would need significant improvement to win
STL plays inspired, NYJ could put you to sleep

NYJ 0-2 vs NFC West, scoring 7 allowing 62
STL 0-2 vs AFC East, scoring 21 allowing 62

NYJ p/u of RB Kahlil Bell, how much will he play?


11/18 4:25 PM
423 IND 53½ *
424 NE -9½ over

NE maybe taking IND lightly with NYJ up on deck for next week


11/18 1:00 PM
425 JAC 40½ UNDER
426 HOU -15½ *

HOU @home has won by 20,24,30,12 and lost by 18 (GB) it's either win big or lose big


11/18 1:00 PM
427 CIN -3½ under
428 KC 43½ *

KC has lost 6 straight, but has played AFC North opponents well, losing by 3pts to PIT and BAL, just a hunch, but this maybe the upset KC needs - its the desperate win


11/18 4:05 PM
429 NO -4½ *
430 OAK 54½ OVER

Really thought of taking OAK, but their D is stinkin' up the joint ....


11/18 4:25 PM
431 SD 48½ UNDER
432 DEN -7½ ***

One team is on the UP swing, the other ... trying not to roll down hill to fast


11/18 8:30 PM
433 BAL -3½ over?
434 PIT 41 *

PIT QB Leftwich starts
Taking the dog... I'm thinking PIT will run more and BAL D will suffer. PIT D has learned to win w/o Polamalu


11/19 8:40 PM
435 CHI 39 Under
436 SF -4½ *

CHI QB Campbell to start
SF QB Kaepernick to start


NO TEAM Going into bye week

Tuesday, November 13, 2012

2012 - week 10 - results

TEN came out swinging after owner Adams public declaration that his team stunk

NYG still seems to be in a funk

MIN is the biggest surprise for me, without WR Harvin, I'd thought they be junk

NO brings ATL to earth

what's wrong with the ref's in the STL @SF game??

HOU played really disciplined in sloppy conditions of soldier field, that constant rain, wet, slippery condition, I gave CHI the edge, BUT I was proven wrong by a team with a lot of focus

notables:
What do starting QB's from PHI, SF and CHI have in common? They all have concussions from their weekends game and their team did not win, though SF did tie their game.

Broke even on totals, under .500 for sides....  did you notice not a single double digit spread covered? NE, SF and PIT all at home with a division rival or desperate team that played a tight game

Thursday, November 08, 2012

pro-football-reference.com Team Game Finder

You just gotta love the enhancements they keep adding to their site. In particular http://www.pro-football-reference.com/play-index/tgl_finder.cgi has an added feature of 'Vegas "favored by", "underdog by" and "over/under" which can be found within the Additional Criteria drop down menu.

The Additional Criteria has so many options, if you have an inkling of an idea or thought that has perculated over the seasons. Try it out and you may prove your instinct to be correct. I also love the Game Time selection, which really helps define traveling teams winning records from west coast to east coast as a definite trend, but not so much going in the opposite direction.

They've also added Field type and Stadium type as well, maybe they'll do something for the weather....

Wednesday, November 07, 2012

2012 - week 10 - picks (includes Thursday)

11/08 8:25 PM

105 IND -3½ *
106 JAC 42½ OVER

IND needs to win this game, next wk is NE
JAC couldn't stop DET pass attack, how will they stop IND? IND gains the series split


11/11 1:00 PM
215 BUF 52½ UNDER
216 NE -11 *

CoB NE
I normally go for the season split, this game is at NE, 1st game was @BUF who couldn't play the 2nd half so even with a lot of pts, I just can't take BUF


11/11 1:00 PM
217 NYG -4 *
218 CIN 48½ UNDER

GiB NYG
just thinking CIN can't cover against small numbers, I'd need at least +7.5 and NYG on the road tend to be under games this year


11/11 1:00 PM
219 SD 47½ ***OVER***
220 TB -3 *

TB on a high, not sure about taking them, but WR Vincent Jackson may be really motivated since his
prior team SD chose not to extend his contract
SD is 0-2 vs NFC South


11/11 1:00 PM
221 DEN -4 *
222 CAR 47½ under

DEN is 1-1 vs NFC South, lost to ATL, won vs NO, CAR is nowhere near either of their division rivals
CAR has played better the past two games which coincides with the firing of GM


11/11 1:00 PM
223 TEN 44½ UNDER
224 MIA -6 *

GiB TEN
TEN Owner Bud Adams angrily puts everyone on notice after last week 20-51 loss to CHI @home "we were grossly out-coached and out-played from start to finish today"
Not a good spot for MIA, with a motivated TEN, but I'm still hesitant with +6
MIA should win SU, TEN just got by BUF for their only road win
update 11/7: TEN QB Locker to start, I still wouldn't expect them to win, he just needs more 'seasoning'


11/11 1:00 PM
225 OAK 46 under
226 BAL -7½ *

OAK so who will be RB? doesn't matter OAK isn't good on east coast see
http://pfref.com/tiny/hpVfy


11/11 1:00 PM
227 ATL -2½ *
228 NO 53½ OVER

NO D is the key, if they do well they win, if not they lose, I just don't think they'll do well


11/11 1:00 PM
229 DET -2½ ***
230 MIN 47 over

GiB MIN
MIN is a one trick pony w/o WR Harvin, here we go with the series split


11/11 4:05 PM
231 NYJ 38½ UNDER
232 SEA -6½ *

CoB NYJ
GiB SEA
what can I say? NYJ falling, SEA rising


11/11 4:25 PM
233 DAL -1 *
234 PHI 44½ under

should be a slug fest of mistakes, taking pts seems prudent, hmmmm lined moved 3pts to DAL (was +2), guess I'll give up pts
update 11/7: PHI RT IR OFY, I expect Mr 'O'lay himself to start so w/Bell starting DAL DE/LB should be able to tie up Vick & Co


11/11 4:25 PM
235 STL 38½ under
236 SF -11½ *

CoB STL
CoB SF
one sided


11/11 8:30 PM
237 HOU 41½ OVER
238 CHI -1½ *

HOU is 0-1 vs NFC North lost by 18
CHI is 3-0 vs AFC South, having won by 20,38 & 31 pts
Their are reports CHI CB Tillman maybe out of game due to expected birth of child. HOU could win this game. CHI coming off blow out win @TEN
update 11/7: HOU NT Cody inj'd ribs, punctured lung, I wouldn't expect him to play

11/12 8:40 PM
239 KC 42½ under
240 PIT -12½ *

so one sided, normally wouldn't expect PIT to be UP for this game, but it is MNF and they didn't start off well vs NYG last week. I think they'll take this out of the refs hands and pad their numbers with the TO prone Chiefs

Tuesday, November 06, 2012

GRID - Week - 09


I wanted to rank the teams, sort of like a power ranking, but in the end I came out with a grid of the teams playing at about or around the same level.

This makes more sense to me as I have a three tiers or levels in my grid.

1st tier/level = teams ranked 1 - 11
2nd tier/level = teams ranked 12 - 22
3rd tier/level = teams ranked 23 - 32

I've been playing with this for a couple of years and decided to share this year. This year I grouped so that their is only one team on the bottom. A year or two ago it seemed more appropriate to have more on the bottom, so I adjusted the rankings.
I hesitated placing SEA in the top 11, but until NO plays more consistently or MIA or TB pick up more big wins I'll keep them in the middle of the pack. 

We'll see if I continue to blog the "GRID"

2012 - week 09 - results



Barely broke even ATS, and dropped below .500 for totals, funny how a lot of fav's covered this weekend

UPSETS (maybe the aftermath of Super Storm Sandy played a hand in taking the players & staff minds/concentration off of the weekends game)

CAR beating WAS after WAS HC Shanahan says prior to game it's a "must win", guess he was desparate and knew his team would have a tough time. I think they didn't start their normal work week until Wednesday.

PIT beat NYG, NYG really had a couple of gifts from the referees early in their game, but it wasn't enough as PIT D contained NYG O, and PIT O handled NYG D fairly well. PIT RB/PR Rainey really looked good, too bad he got injured.

TB upset of OAK was really surprising with their All-Pro Guard Nicks out for the season, gotta like that OL for TB or is OAK DL getting old? TB RB Martin really looks to be in a groove.

IND win over MIA may be costly, though both sides had players leave the game, MIA had more players come back, while IND have a few who are at the least questionable for the week. IND D stepped up with the return of Mathis & Moala

Teams Going into Bye 1-3 ATS/SU (GB - ARI, CLE, WAS)
Teams Coming off Bye 2-2 ATS/SU (BAL, HOU - BUF, CIN)

Thursday, November 01, 2012

2012 - week 09 - picks

11/04 1:00 PM
415 DEN -3½ *
416 CIN 47½ under

CoB CIN
DEN should win by a TD or more
last game of 2nd quarter for the season for both teams


11/04 1:00 PM
417 ARI 43½ *
418 GB -11 UNDER

GiB ARI
GiB GB
If GB WR's are still out taking pts seems prudent
start of the 2nd half of season for both teams


11/04 1:00 PM
419 MIA -2½ ***
420 IND 43½ UNDER

MIA is playing tough
IND w/o starting TE & CB
last game of 2nd quarter for the season for both teams


11/04 1:00 PM
421 BAL -3½ *
422 CLE 42½ UNDER

CoB BAL
GiB CLE
BAL is alot tougher than SD last week, CLE got their upset last week, not this week
last game of 2nd quarter for the season for both teams


11/04 1:00 PM
423 BUF 47½ OVER
424 HOU -10 *

CoB BUF
CoB HOU
HOU won't view BUF as a real rival
which combo? FO? FU? DU? DO?
last game of 2nd quarter for the season for both teams


11/04 1:00 PM
425 CAR 46½ over
426 WAS -3½ *

GiB WAS
WAS HC says 'must win'
'shortened' week for both teams due to Hurricane Sandy
CAR last game of 2nd quarter for the season
WAS start of 2nd half of season


11/04 1:00 PM
427 DET -3½ *
428 JAC 44 UNDER

giving up pts, just don't see how JAC D will contain megatron
last game of 2nd quarter for the season for both teams
noteworthy? 10/30 JAC trades WR to DET for draft pick


11/04 1:00 PM
429 CHI -3½ ***
430 TEN 43½ over

CHI last game of 2nd quarter for the season
TEN start of 2nd half of season
TEN w/o LT Roos,
IND O beat TEN D and IND D contained TEN O, CHI O & D much better than IND


11/04 4:05 PM
431 MIN 39½ under
432 SEA -4½ **

start of 2nd half of season for both teams


11/04 4:05 PM
433 TB 45½ OVER
434 OAK -1½ *

TB w/o G Nicks (10/30 IR)
I've noticed that FF pundits are predicting TB WR Jackson will do well vs OAK D, due to past
performances. But I don't think so..
1) OAK D is not a man-to-man D
2) TB O is a run first O
3) TB all-Pro Guard Nicks is out and HC Schiano is stubborn and will stick to a run O

last game of 2nd quarter for the season for both teams


11/04 4:25 PM
435 PIT 47½ UNDER
436 NYG -3 *

PIT last game of 2nd quarter for the season
NYG start of 2nd half of season
PIT w/o hotel, must travel Sunday due to Hurricane Sandy, breaks up the normal travel routine


11/04 8:30 PM
437 DAL 47½ *
438 ATL -4½ OVER

last game of 2nd quarter for the season for both teams
ATL w/o LB Weatherspoon


11/05 8:40 PM
439 PHI 52½ over
440 NO -3½ *

last game of 2nd quarter for the season for both teams

2012 - week 09 - Thursday pick

11/01 8:25 PM

301 KC 42½ *
302 SD -8 UNDER

I always consider the season split for division games as this tend to happen quite frequently, but in this case we're looking at a season sweep

KC should have a better game, unless they commit another 5TOs..

taking pts, should be a 3pt game

last game of 2nd quarter for the season, both teams on losing streaks, who wants it more?

Tuesday, October 30, 2012

2012 - week 08 - results



Very good week ATS, just barely below .500 for totals. And for the year I'm again above .500 !!

Interestingly enough key injuries may or may not have had affected their team. OAK was w/o their LT yet won their game on the road at KC or this could be just a reflection that KC as a team is 'lost', QB Quinn did go down in Q1, but QB Cassel sub'd and did fairly well.
TEN was also w/o their LT and they lost @home to IND. IND seems to have a running game
NYJ was w/o their LB Scott and were blown out @home by MIA, NYJ seems to be another 'lost' team.
WAS had questions with their MLB Fletcher as well prior to game, but he played and they still lost to PIT. Seems to me WAS WR's had the dropsies, could be the weather..
Speaking of the weather, it seemed to help CLE in their upset at home of SD. Can you believe a dome team beat a grass team in inclement weather? ATL did just that to PHI and now PHI may see a new HC in the coming year. JAC played way UP for their game with GB in cold conditions (under 40 degrees with wind chill) and w/o their RB or is it GB had too many skill players out (WRs) to get a +2TD victory (and cover the spread)?

weather games ... (see possible-weather-games-for-week-8 )
O/U 1-3, ATL @PHI end game total of 47 pts went just over the set 46.5 total, ATL scored on their first six possessions, just dominating, PHI got a garbage time TD
ATS 3-1 WAS lost to PIT due to WR's and play calling IMO, WAS should've run more


Again this year the designated home team (STL) for the overseas game, really lost from the beginning without home field advantage.

CAR DL played well, just their O has no consistency in passing or running game, so CHI won 'ugly' just like GB

DET was a bit lucky at home (another ugly win?), DAL was inept again at the end of a game (a NYG ugly win?).

I wonder if DEN will meet SF in NO for the super bowl?

teams coming off a bye week were 3-3 SU and ATS
teams going into their bye week were 2-2 SU and ATS

Thursday, October 25, 2012

Possible Weather games for week 8

There's a recent article about a "Frankenstorm" approaching, projected to start on Sunday,
see http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/U/US_SCI_SUPER_STORM?SITE=NVLAS&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT


It may be a bit early, but both PHI and NYJ games should go under total. Even CLE game has a better chance of going under total (I had chosen over earlier in the week, but now I would hedge if I had placed an over bet on that game)

Wind is a key factor, making the game like an amusement ride for kickers at times and if rain comes into play, we should see much more conservative play calling by OC's, a heavy dose of run, which favors both under the total and taking the pts (ATL, MIA, WAS and maybe CLE)

Tuesday, October 23, 2012

2012 - week 08 - picks

10/28 1:00 PM
219 NE -7 *
220 STL 47 UNDER

GiB NE
GiB STL

NE is 0-2 vs NFC west (loss to ARI & SEA).
Of all the NFC west teams, geographically STL isn't in the west. I expect STL to lose, they lack the
horses on O and can only play keep away to try and win at home, though +7 maybe enough to get the win
ATS

STL arrived on TUES, NE arriving on Friday
I'm wondering just how focused STL will be? They seem to really like their role as ambassadors, while NE is all business.


10/28 1:00 PM
221 IND 46½ UNDER
222 TEN -3½ ***

IND was lucky last week, no such luck @TEN


10/28 1:00 PM
223 JAC  45½   under
224 GB -15½ **

JAC - can't believe if QB Henne starts that they'll be much better than last week. They'll need to play
keep away to have any chance to win.
GB w/o S Woodson
update: 10/25 noted totals finally posted and side went up 3pts (I'm not changing my original pick), still this should be a 3TD game for GB, I 'd put the over/under for first downs by JAC at 5.5

10/28 1:00 PM
225 SD -3 OVER
226 CLE 44½ *

CoB SD

CLE O needs to step up, if they do, they win, if not SD gets a steal


10/28 1:00 PM
227 ATL 46½ **
228 PHI -2½ UNDER

CoB ATL
CoB PHI

Hard to take such an under performing team like PHI and even with firing of their DC, will this be enough
to have a sounder game on their O?Taking pts seems best. Should go under the total


10/28 1:00 PM
229 SEA 43 *
230 DET -3 UNDER

DET has the pleasure of playing another really good D with a secondary that can cover, so why again are
they favored? Even at home, they'll have a tough time stopping SEA ground game. UPSET of the week?


10/28 1:00 PM
231 MIA 40½ *
232 NYJ -2½ under

CoB MIA
GiB NYJ

1st thought to take NYJ, but MIA, plays close, is coming off a bye and is a very healthy team, MIA gets
the season split


10/28 1:00 PM
233 CAR 44½ UNDER
234 CHI -7½ *****

Will firing of GM, awaken CAR team? doubtful, they have more problems then just awakening team
This could be a laugher...


10/28 1:00 PM
235 WAS 47½ *
236 PIT -5½ UNDER

Both team like to run, UNDER the total is the much better bet. PIT is slowing digressing, WAS is on the
rise and played a much better team than PIT did last week


10/28 4:05 PM
237 OAK 43 OVER
238 KC -1 *

CoB KC

OAK was just way too lucky last week, KC has a get well game on deck


10/28 4:25 PM
239 NYG 47½ *
240 DAL -1 UNDER

DAL is the weakest of NFC East D's
NYG gains the season split
update: noted line has moved to DAL +1½ to +2 and DAL will be w/o LB Sean Lee who was calling the plays for their D


10/28 8:30 PM
241 NO 54½ under?
242 DEN -6 *

CoB DEN

I was thinking of NO @1st, but outdoors, altitude and a weak D will be NO undoing, even with the emotional lift of Vitt back as interim HC


10/29 8:40 PM
243 SF -7 *
244 ARI 37 UNDER

GiB SF

SF has returned to a run O and their D is that much better. ARI needs to find an O, UNDER the total is
the best bet

2012 - week 08 - Thursday pick

10/25 8:25 PM

103 TB 41½ *
104 MIN -6½ UNDER

TB on the road 0-2 SU, 2-0 ATS
MIN has yet to lose (4-0) @home SU, 3-1 ATS

TB O seems to be on the rise
MIN O seems southward bound

TB D decent
MIN D dominating at time

edge goes to MIN ST, though TB field position may be in their favor

Why is line so much more than standard -3 or -3.5?

Projected:
This should be an 11 possession game for each team
TB 1-3 scores 7-21
MIN 1-2 scores 7-14

If either D scores, game will go OVER total

HOME team on THURSDAY 4-1 SU 2-3 ATS, DOG 4-1 ATS

2012 - week 07 - results

So ATS above .500 record this weekend, but totals took a big dip and I was correct on about 1/3

A couple of pushes ATS & totals as well I suppose if I had added the 1/2 hook, I'd come out ahead but I'll just leave it at that.

Home teams TB, STL, NE & CIN all lost ATS and of course I had picked on them

GiB (Going into Bye) teams were 1-3 ATS (HOU - BAL, CIN, BUF)
CoB (Coming off Bye) teams were 2-1-1 ATS (JAC, NO - CAR - CHI)




"Young teams"

TB plays really well in 1st half vs "teams it finds challenging", then no well in 2nd half. So bet on 1st half, bet against 2nd half

BUF allowed TEN QB Hasselbeck & Co. to stage the comeback win

JAC scores only 6pts after both their star RB Jones-Drew and their QB Gabbert left the game due to injuries, and you can stick them in the 'young' team category, because they couldn't put away OAK, though they did have a tougher task on the road and down two starters. AND JAC HC/OC made a curious 4th-and-1 to go in Q2, just punt you had a 17-3 lead....


  CIN plays like a young team and didn't seem to know how to put away PIT after seemingly having a ground game in Q1 that was unstoppable

and in the battle of young teams CLE @IND, the home team won SU

Thursday, October 18, 2012

2012 - week 07 - picks

10/21 1:00 PM
415 TEN 46½ ***
416 BUF -3½ under

GiB BUF
I'm thinking BUF was a bit lucky to win last week and TEN QB Hasselbeck is in early season form, already!


10/21 1:00 PM
417 ARI 40½ UNDER
418 MIN -6 *

ARI D is really good, so is MIN, difference is O


10/21 1:00 PM
419 CLE 45 *
420 IND -3 over

CLE coming off a much needed win, I don't think there will be a letdown. IND D is lacking....


10/21 1:00 PM
421 BAL 48½ OVER
422 HOU -6½ *

GiB BAL
GiB HOU
HOU should cover, with the demise of BAL D on display for the past several weeks (and seasons according to some talking heads) they may need 10+pts


10/21 1:00 PM
423 GB -5½ under
424 STL 44½ *

Taking the pts, seems sound STL @home, good D, O plays UP and ST should be OK. GB off big win, I don't think they'll see man2man D the rest of the season



10/21 1:00 PM
425 DAL -2½ *
426 CAR 45½ UNDER

CoB CAR
you know if DAL could put 'IT' together they could swamp CAR, who has no ID on O and D is starting to stink


10/21 1:00 PM
427 WAS 50 *
428 NYG -6½ OVER

Can WAS sweep NYG again like last year?


10/21 1:00 PM
429 NO -3 UNDER
430 TB 49½ *

CoB NO
Unsure if I should take TB, I don't trust their O, but I trust NO D even less


10/21 4:25 PM
431 NYJ 47 under
432 NE -10½ *

NE will get the win and hopefully the cover, DD is large, just I still can't trust NYJ to stay within number


10/21 4:25 PM
433 JAC 43 *
434 OAK -4 OVER

CoB JAC
Thought about taking OAK, thought about JAC, just took the pts, this is a stay away game...


10/21 8:30 PM
435 PIT -2½ OVER
436 CIN 46 *

GiB CIN
Way too many inj's for PIT to be road fav


10/22 8:40 PM
437 DET 47½ UNDER
438 CHI -6 **

CoB CHI
CHI D even w/Urlacher in twilight, can still stop DET O with consistency. The question is can DET D stop CHI O?

Tuesday, October 16, 2012

2012 - week 07 - Thursday pick

10/18 8:25 PM

303 SEA 37½ *
304 SF -7 OVER



SEA plays with chip on shoulder, lost last year 2x to SF, they should be UP for this game

2012 - week 06 - results




Ouch after two good weeks, a week where I missed alot, even totals were just .500 at 7-7, ATS 4-10


Thursday game
PIT really beat up, TEN QB Hasselbeck is out of pre-season mode and WR Britt is back as well, TEN D still misses tackles, but they won @home, chalk it up for the dog

note: Home teams for Thursday night games are 4-1 SU 2-3 ATS, the 'dog is 4-1 ATS



Unusual game MIN Q1 appeared to be in control, WAS controlled the rest of the game Q2-4 scoring 38pts

noted: Total posted for MIN @WAS, 47 and -1 MIN @donbest.com (day after game completed)

BUF and BAL appeared to be a bit lucky in their wins, next week I expect them to lose.

NYG, NYJ & GB dominated, hey just noticed all NY state teams won this past weekend

DEN spotted SD a 24-0 lead at half time and took over 2nd half for the win

Wednesday, October 10, 2012

2012 - week 06 - picks

10/14 1:00 PM

209 CIN -1 under
210 CLE 44½ *

CLE splits div series w/CIN?



10/14 1:00 PM
211 IND 42½ under
212 NYJ -3 *

IND off an emo game, should be in letdown mode...


10/14 1:00 PM
213 KC 41 *
214 TB -3½ under

GiB KC
CoB TB



10/14 1:00 PM
215 OAK 48½ under
216 ATL -8½ ***

CoB OAK
GiB ATL



10/14 1:00 PM
217 DAL 43½ over
218 BAL -3½ *

CoB DAL
In this once every 4 yrs series BAL is 3-0



10/14 1:00 PM
219 DET 47½ over
220 PHI -3½ *

CoB DET
GiB PHI



10/14 1:00 PM
221 STL 37½ *
222 MIA -3½ under

GiB MIA



10/14 4:05 PM
223 NE -3½ *
224 SEA 44 under

NE O is playing really well, should this be -6?
SEA O can only run



10/14 4:05 PM
225 BUF 43 UNDER
226 ARI -4½ *

Has anyone noticed for BUF that score difference has been at least 10pts this year? Or that their D and O
sputters in the 2ndHalf of games?
BUF is staying out on West Coast prior to this game.





10/14 4:25 PM
227 MIN ? *
228 WAS -2½ under

It's Friday and still no number for total and most sportbooks have no line... sigh

10/14 4:25 PM
229 NYG 45½ over
230 SF -6 *

NYG HC Coughlin playing underdog role



10/14 8:30 PM
231 GB 48½ under
232 HOU -3½ *



10/15 8:40 PM
233 DEN 50½ *
234 SD -1½ over

GiB DEN
GiB SD

CoB = Coming off bye
GiB = Going into bye

Tuesday, October 09, 2012

simpler is faster

http://www.footballperspective.com/and-then-tom-said-to-his-offense-bama-left/

you just gotta read it all and note that NE HC Belichick picked the brains of Oregon's HC Chip Kelly as well as Walsh's edict of using one word for play calls.

now if I could only hear the play called real time during the game.....

2012 - week 05 - results



Another good week of picks ATS and totals, which means I'm now on the plus side for the year for both totals and ATS, yeah!

This week BAL, PIT and HOU won their games but did not cover ATS (and I missed all these games). I also missed on SEA @CAR and it was a game which was a toss up for me, but SEA again dominated with D, a run O and fairly sound ST. CAR sputters on O and their D has yet to stop the run this year. I was just thinking CAR would turn it around this week @home, but it appears they are what they are....




2012 - week 06 - Thursday pick

10/11 8:25 PM

101 PIT 5½ **
102 TEN 43 under



PIT SU 0-2 on the road this year (DEN, OAK)
TEN has been throttled by solid D's
TY PIT D suspect w/o Polamalu
TEN QB Hasselbeck still in preseason mode

PIT should win and cover with TEN D unable to stop the run O of both MIN and HOU the past two weeks

note: This year, non-Sunday/Monday games have all gone UNDER the total

When the coach(es) call out the players

Did you notice this past week that BUF HC Gailey questioned the mental toughness of his team? And did you notice they still loss to SF on the road? They tried to hang with them in the first half, but again in the second half they collapsed as they did in the prior week @home vs NE ( a much hated division rival).

This past week TEN DC Jerry Gray also called out his defense for lack of toughness and how did they respond? Again they were run over roughshod by MIN. Prior week HOU took them to the woodshed

These public calling out of players I guess should be viewed as desperation by the coaches involved as they've probably tried everything else they can think of and it hasn't worked.

Both games had similarites, BUF & TEN faced teams known for their run O (SF & MIN) and D's that played solid. Maybe it was just 'haves' vs 'have nots' and the 'have not's' knew it and showed it

In short bet against these teams....




Wednesday, October 03, 2012

2012 - week 05 - picks

10/07 1:00 PM
411 ATL -3 **
412 WAS 50½ under

ATL only -3????



10/07 1:00 PM
413 PHI 44 under
414 PIT -3½ *

CoB PIT
I would normally go with the over in this once every 4 yrs interstate rivaly, but Vick & Co sputter too much, PIT off a bye week should play better with rest and the return of Harrison & Polamalu.



10/07 1:00 PM
415 GB -7 under
416 IND 48 *

CoB IND
IND HC Pagano diagnosed w/leukemia,
OC Arians (Interim HC) tells players 'why can't we extend season for HC Pagano?'



10/07 1:00 PM
417 CLE 44 under
418 NYG -9 *

CLE WR's banged up, not practicing



10/07 4:25 PM
419 TEN 43½ UNDER
420 MIN -5½ **

giving up 5.5 with MIN seems like a lot, but their D should be able to stop TEN with QB Hasselbeck. I expect a short passing game from TEN and nothing much else. It's MIN D that is formidable and with a rocking home crowd will give TEN QB Hasselbeck & Co. headaches all game long



10/07 1:00 PM
421 MIA 44½ *
422 CIN -4½ over

MIA has played in 2OT games consecutively, Lots of spunk, taking points seems prudent



10/07 1:00 PM
423 BAL -5 **
424 KC 46½ UNDER

KC - smells like toast??



10/07 4:05 PM
425 SEA 43½ UNDER
426 CAR -3 *

GiB CAR
This is a bit of a toss up to me, but SEA and long road trip should work against them



10/07 4:05 PM
427 CHI -5½ *****
428 JAC 40 UNDER

GiB CHI
GiB JAC
Going into bye week for both teams, CHI on a high, JAC on a low...
JAC has yet to play well @home, could be 0-4, except for "lucky win" @IND, spread could be -14½


10/07 4:25 PM
429 DEN 51½ OVER
430 NE -7 *

Two of the best O's play, which means that total is looking awfully small, unless both teams decide to run more often. O's are ahead of D's, thought of taking points, but both teams are coming off of wins over division rivals... this seems like a homer game



10/07 4:25 PM
431 BUF 44½ UNDER
432 SF -9½ **

BUF HC questions "mental toughness" of players



10/07 8:30 PM
433 SD 54 OVER
434 NO -3½ **

GiB NO
Another supreme effort from NO should easily get this over the total



10/08 8:35 PM
435 HOU -7½ **
436 NYJ 41 UNDER

And to pile on the bad news, HOU trounces NYJ, they should be embarrassed from last week, but I think they are still in the woe is me mode...



interestingly enough....

teams on bye this week DAL, DET, OAK, TB all lost last week



CoB Coming off bye
GiB Going into bye

the anti joe namath

Sometimes you read something and you just gotta let it be known for everyone else....

http://www.footballperspective.com/jim-harbaugh-has-turned-alex-smith-into-the-anti-joe-namath-or-jim-harbaugh-2-0/

great piece of writing and stats mixed all into one....

CHFF TV

again followed another blog entry from google reader and thought this was worthy ...


http://www.coldhardfootballfacts.com/chff-tv/

interestingly enough they had a spot on SF @MIN and we all know it was the upset of the week for wk 03

this week they are highlighting HOU chances of a 16-0 run, again interesting, but I guess with video it still captures my attention...

Compiling numbers for the "White Hats"

I was going thru google reader and noticed a blog entry for officials and lo and behold, it's a treasure trove of info...

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/officials/

Since umpires are the head of the officiating crew they get to wear the 'white hat'. I'll need to review the entries in detail at a later time and I hope to glean some useful info from a betting perpective

Tuesday, October 02, 2012

2012 - week 05 - Thursday - pick

10/04 8:25 PM

301 ARI -1 UNDER
302 STL 38½ *



since '07 ARI 9-1 vs STL (last 5 years)

ARI w/o DT Dockett, RB Wells, OL has issues

STL OL has issues as well, I'm just thinking HC Fisher will have another wrinkle and out coach Wisenhunt & Co.

2012 - week 04 - results


A very good week, especially for totals. I wonder if this is due to the regular referees being in charge or not? Or maybe it's just because I had a ten more hours to work with and make picks? Or because on the plane ride back to 'vegas I met a fellow passenger with an enthusiasm for football. Todd, who came into town for the body building event, picked fairly well ATS only missing on SEA, OAK, ARI, NO & DAL. He picked winners of SF, HOU, NE, MIN, CIN, WAS and got a push with NYG.

I wrote on the USAtoday Friday edition that CIN & WAS were my best bets and they came thru, but I had forgotten I blogged/picked CHI@DAL as an over game, but notated it as an under on the rag (sigh), the others total picks of WAS@TB under, NO@GB over and SF@NYJ under all came thru.

I never did get to watch the FSU @USF game (so much to do first day back from traveling), but I did notice on donbest.com that USF as a 'dog won the $$ and total went under the wire as well.

Maybe I haven't picked as well the past three weeks because I was on the road and couldn't put in the time to review teams, games, and/or situations. Now here's a situation to watch with MIA having played in consecutive OT games losing both SU (0-2), but ATS 1-1 and the totals going over twice. What will this third game be? I noticed MIA maybe a good first half bet and maybe over the total for the whole game, though I do expect adjustments in the totals numbers from the sportsbooks, we'll see....

Saturday, September 29, 2012

2012 - week 04 - picks

09/30 1:00 PM
205 NE -4 over
206 BUF 51 *



09/30 1:00 PM
207 MIN 47 *
208 DET -6 under



09/30 1:00 PM
209 CAR 48½ UNDER
210 ATL -7 ***



09/30 1:00 PM
211 SF -4 *
212 NYJ 41½ UNDER



09/30 1:00 PM
213 SD 44½ *
214 KC -1 over



09/30 1:00 PM
215 TEN 45 under
216 HOU -12 **



09/30 1:00 PM
217 SEA -2½ under
218 STL 38½ *



09/30 4:05 PM
219 MIA 39½ UNDER
220 ARI -5½ *



09/30 4:05 PM
221 OAK 48½ *
222 DEN -6½ UNDER



09/30 4:05 PM
223 CIN -2½ *
224 JAC 42½ under



09/30 4:25 PM
225 NO 54 *
226 GB -7½ OVER

Both teams were robbed last week, but only one can win...

09/30 4:25 PM
227 WAS 47½ **
228 TB -2½ under

WAS DC Raheem Morris xTB HC

09/30 8:30 PM
229 NYG 47½ ***
230 PHI -2 under

PHI can be lucky for only so long...

10/01 8:35 PM
231 CHI 45½ *
232 DAL -3½ OVER

Thursday, September 27, 2012

2012 - week 04 - Thursday - pick

09/27 8:20 PM

101 CLE 44 OVER
102 BAL -12 *

2012 - week 03 - results



So totals were much better this weekend, sides need to catch up

and hallelujah that was the last week with replacement referee crews

there should be an asterisk for the first three weeks of this season, so many games where the winning team, had a lot of help from the ref's



Saturday, September 22, 2012

2012 - week 03 - picks

09/20 8:20 PM

401 NYG 48
402 CAR -3

(NO PLAY - LATE IN POSTING PICKS)


09/23 1:00 PM
401 STL 43 UNDER
402 CHI -7 *



09/23 1:00 PM
403 TB 46 UNDER
404 DAL -7½ *



09/23 1:00 PM
405 SF -7 *
406 MIN 43 UNDER



09/23 1:00 PM
407 DET -3½ *
408 TEN 47½ OVER



09/23 1:00 PM
409 CIN 49½ *
410 WAS -3 OVER



09/23 1:00 PM
411 NYJ -2½ UNDER
412 MIA 41 *



09/23 1:00 PM
413 KC 53 *
414 NO -9 OVER



09/23 1:00 PM
415 BUF -3 *
416 CLE 44 UNDER



09/23 1:00 PM
417 JAC 43 OVER
418 IND -3 *



09/23 4:05 PM
419 PHI -3½ UNDER
420 ARI 42½ *



09/23 4:05 PM
421 ATL 47½ OVER
422 SD -3 *



09/23 4:25 PM
423 HOU -2½ OVER
424 DEN 44½ *



09/23 4:25 PM
425 PIT -3½ **
426 OAK 45 OVER



09/23 8:30 PM
427 NE 49½ OVER
428 BAL -2½ *



09/24 8:35 PM
429 GB -3 *
430 SEA 45 OVER