Since lines are posted prior to the season starting I have begun to track "before start of season" ATS numbers and current ATS numbers
This week games where ATS line has moved 6pts or more :
PHI @ WAS, was PHI -3.5, now WAS -3.5
TB @CAR, was CAR -6, now TB -3.5
NYJ @STL, was NYJ -3, now STL -3
CIN @KC, was KC -2.5, now CIN -3.5
BAL @PIT, was PIT -3, now BAL -3.5
Of all the games for this weekend, where there has been at least a 6pt swing, there should be an upset.
I list the games that I believe an upset will occur.
I wouldn't be surprised if PIT as a home dog wins outright and upsets BAL. I expect PIT to return to the run game and BAL is coming off a high from a high scoring game. BAL should have a return to normalcy and this year their normal appears to be a D that is on the downslope and an O that chooses at times to not run the ball, when they should be running the ball
KC @home is another game that has a high chance of an upset occuring. I know, I know, CIN has played well (last week) and KC has TO issues. I'm just not sold on CIN away from home and solving TO's are correctable. KC has also played well vs AFC North brethren BAL and PIT. Maybe KC just stays within -3.5 number, maybe they get the outright win
I have a harder time believing in NYJ causing an upset, due to STL coaching which is far superior to NYJ
again the coaching/staffing issue is also occuring with CAR and TB going in opposite directions
and as well with PHI and WAS
note: last week (week 10) their were three games and there was an upset of ATL @NO (8pt movement). The other two games IND @JAC (6.5pt movement) and SD @TB (6pt movement) were covers by the favorite.
prior weeks 6 thru 9 = none (and I didn't track wks 1-5).