Wednesday, November 21, 2012

2012 - week 12 - picks

note: MIN @CHI ATS/Total line is late, will need to update...
11/23 updated #'s
11/25 MIN @CHI significant move from CHI pk to -6/-6½

11/25 1:00 PM
221 OAK 49 UNDER
222 CIN -8 *****

The return of QB Palmer, clear edge w/CIN

11/25 1:00 PM
223 PIT -1 under
224 CLE 34½ *

PIT QB Batch starts
I'm thinking the outright win for CLE

11/25 1:00 PM
225 BUF 51½ *
226 IND -3 OVER

OVER the total seems far more prudent, taking the pts in what should be a close game

11/25 1:00 PM
227 DEN -10½ **
228 KC 44 **UNDER**

DEN w/o RB McGahee
KC fans are angry, KC QB Quinn starts
total seems way too high

I don't think KC will score more than 10pts, if they do, say 14pts or more taking pts would be more prudent. I just think DEN won't score more than 24 pts for this game

HUGE 11.5pt swing since prior2season

11/25 1:00 PM
229 TEN -3 OVER
230 JAC 43½ *

JAC should be UP for this game @home w/div rival sandwich'g games vs AFC East for their last 6 games

11/25 1:00 PM
231 MIN 38½ *
232 CHI -6½\UNDER

CHI run D shredded by SF run O last week
CHI run O nearly missing in action (until Q3) vs SF run D
will MIN duplicate SF effort on the road?
MIN is 0-4 @CHI

One thing of note MIN QB Ponder is nowhere near as athletic as SF QB Kaepernick, but may have the better arm and more time as a starting QB, just his WR's drop the ball too much

CHI QB Cutler starts?

11/25 1:00 PM
233 ATL -1 UNDER
234 TB 49½ *

Both teams were lucky last weekend, ATL was 'luckier' (is that a word?)

11/25 1:00 PM
235 SEA -3 ****
236 MIA 37½ UNDER

for MIA this is the 1st game of a tough stretch, next up NE, then SF

6pt swing since prior2season

11/25 4:05 PM
237 BAL -1½ *
238 SD 47 UNDER


11/25 4:25 PM
239 SF -1½ under
240 NO 49 *

after such a great game by SF O, I expect a letdown

11/25 4:25 PM
241 STL 37½ *
242 ARI -2½ UNDER

The total is easily the better bet, taking STL due to better QB in Bradford than ARI choice of Skelton or

ARI RB Wells returns, does he start?
ARI QB Lindley starts (1st)

11/25 8:30 PM
243 GB 49½ *
244 NYG -2½ over

I want to pick NYG @home, GB OL may have issues w/NYG DL and GB D will be w/o LB Matthews, but NYG QB Manning is not having a good year and GB QB Rodgers is playing really well even w/o all his WR's. If NYG can produce w/run O, then they should win easily, if not taking points seems to be the better move

11/26 8:40 PM
245 CAR -2½ *
246 PHI 41½ UNDER

CAR new K Gano
is PHI done? w/o Vick & McCoy?
I just hope this game is deserving of MNF

9.5pt swing since prior2season

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