Tuesday, December 26, 2006

Week 16 - no posts

no posts due to illness

Week 15 results

ATS weekly
overall: 18-13-1
favored side or total: 10-5-1
best bets: 4-1

ATS season
overall: 211-200-4
favored side or total: 105-99-7
best bets: 29-29-2

Saturday, December 16, 2006

Week 14 results

ATS weekly
overall: 17-14-1
favored side or total: 9-7
best bets: 2-0

ATS season
overall: 193-187-3
favored side or total: 95-94-6
best bets: 25-28-2

Week 15 weekend

253 DAL -4 X
254 ATL 45 U

255 NYJ 41 X
256 MIN -3.5 U

257 CLE 34 U
258 BAL -12 X

259 HOU 37.5 U
260 NE -11 X

261 MIA 34 X
262 BUF -1.5 O

263 PIT -3 X
264 CAR 38 U

265 WAS 46.5 X
266 NO -9.5 U

267 JAC -3.5 O
268 TEN 41 X

269 TB 34 O
270 CHI -13.5 X

271 PHI 43.5 O
272 NYG -5.5 X

273 DET 44 U
274 GB -5.5 X

275 DEN -2.5 U
276 ARI 42 X

277 KC 46.5 U
278 SD -8.5 X

279 STL 38 U
280 OAK -3 X

281 CIN 54.5 X
282 IND -3.5 O

Thursday, December 14, 2006

Week 15 weekday

251 SF 39 X
252 SEA -9.5 U

Saturday, December 09, 2006

football outsiders post and QB thoughts

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/2006/12/09/ramblings/too-deep-zone/4660/

Their "Too Deep Zone" rambling is excellent once again, with "NFL Matchup" as their focus.

I noticed the question on Vince Young and followed the link of Merril Hoge's anti-V Young stance and just had to say that the Tenn brain trust of Fisher and OC Chow chose Young over Leinart. Leinart at the time was obviously much more familiar w/Chow's "system" and yet they chose Young (due to athletic ability). I believe Young under Chow's tutelage will get better and better and Leinart under D Green and Co will get worse and worse.
Notice that QB Rivers is doing well and was under Chow's system at NC State. Rivers isn't really fleet of foot but is fast enough to give DL and LB problems. Rivers appears to have a solid foundation for the NFL game.

Another QB who has a good feel on what a play is designed for is Matt Schaub. I believe M Vick is the better athlete but his thought process is faulty and OC Knapp needs to reinforce "what is the play designed for" and "reading coverages". Schaub came from VA when Trestman was OC and it shows. (Trestman BTW has an NFL backgound specifically w/"West Coast" and "timing routes" though I dont believe NC State fans will implore to keep him, since Amato has been shown the door. I believe he's a good coach and tutor and will be scooped up quickly by another org) M Vick came from VA Tech where QB's do not have the tutelage to correctly read progression or D's in my mind. VA Tech just recruited better OL and better athletes overall.

Griese comes to mind as well as a capable QB w/Michigan as his background. The conservative approach seems to be more characteristic of his play and very unlike Grossman, though Grossman may be more well liked due to talk, Griese' play is much better and judgin' from reports that he has gotten more rep's in practice we may see Grossman finally get the hook on MNF if STL can come together as a team. That is a big IF due to STL recent play and QB quotes on NFL network, though they may view CHI as the team to beat and thus play "up" for the game, I just don't believe it's likely. There could be the scenario where STL DC Haslett (xNO coach and well known DC prior to HC position) game plans CHI QB Grossman very well and QB Bulger get's a couple of quick scores, but this requires the team to come together, which hasn't occured in the past weeks and I won't hold my breath, I just hope the game is well played... but reality is STL @home is not a winning prop and CHI D even w/o DT T Harris is playing outstanding football.

Thursday, December 07, 2006

Week 14 weekend

203 BAL 36 U
204 KC -3 X

205 ATL -3 X
206 TB 38 U

207 MIN 39 U
208 DET -2 X

209 TEN 41.5 X
210 HOU -1 U

211 NYG 39.5 X
212 CAR -3 O

213 NO 48 U
214 DAL -7 X

215 BUF 37 X
216 NYJ -4 O

217 IND -1 U
218 JAC 44 X

219 PHI -1 O
220 WAS 40.5 X

221 OAK 39 U
222 CIN -11 X

223 NE -3.5 X
224 MIA 37 U

225 GB 44 O
226 SF -4.5 X

227 SEA -3 O
228 ARI 45 X

229 DEN 42.5 X
230 SD -7.5 U

231 CHI -6.5 X
232 STL 40.5 U

Week 14 weekday

201 CLE 34 U
202 PIT -7.5 X

Week 13 results

ATS weekly
overall: 18-13-1
favored side or total: 9-7
best bets: 1-1

ATS season
overall: 176-173-2
favored side or total: 86-87-6
best bets: 23-28-2

AFC vs NFC
ATS 2-2 O/U 3-1

Wednesday, November 29, 2006

Week 13

101 BAL 43 O
102 CIN -3 X

137 MIN 36 U
138 CHI -9.5 X

139 TB 41 X
140 PIT -7.5 U

141 ARI 46 X
142 STL -6.5 O

143 IND -7.5 X
144 TEN 48 O

145 JAC 36.5 U
146 MIA -1.5 X

147 SF 46 U
148 NO -7 X

149 ATL 38.5 U
150 WAS -1.5 X

151 KC -5.5 X
152 CLE 36.5 U

153 DET 41.5 X
154 NE -13.5 U

155 SD -6 U
156 BUF 43 X

157 NYJ -1.5 O
158 GB 42 X

159 DAL -4 X
160 NYG 43.5 U

161 HOU 36.5 X
162 OAK -3 O

163 SEA 40.5 X
164 DEN -3.5 O

165 CAR -3 U
166 PHI 37.5 X

I noticed I'm picking on NFC teams vs AFC teams ATS, perhaps not a good thing since AFC is winning handsomely vs NFC teams

Sunday, November 26, 2006

game after Monday Night Football, Road Fav 0-fer ATS

This year I've noticed that for the teams involved in Monday Night Football, the following week the road favorite has never won ATS. (I wonder what the record is for the past 10 years?)

Through 11 weeks I charted:

HD Home Dog 6 wins
HF Home Favorites 8 wins
RD Road Dog 7 wins
RF Road Favorites 0 wins
P Pushes (Tie) 3 occurrences


or you could say the home team is 14-7-3
or the dog is 13-8-3

** next week NYJ @GB and SEA @DEN **

other noticeable stats:
last 4 weeks dog is 6-1-1

NFC S 3-0-1
NFC W 0-2

AFC E 0-1
AFC N 0-2
AFC S 0-1-1

with SEA in NFC W, a loss is possible, (think about DEN has 3 more days to prep)
though this didn't help MIA or PIT in week 2 (week1 Thursday night teams) as they both lost.

with NYJ @GB, NYJ is 7-4 ATS, GB 4-5-1 ATS (prior to MNF) [though has won 3 of last 5 ATS]
but GB is 0-2 vs AFC E teams (losses vs NE and @BUF). It's a wait and see as to how well GB will perform on the road @SEA(note: road teams are 6-3-1 ATS in games w/GB)
^^ a side note that SEA is 0-3 ATS vs NFC N (@DET, @CHI, vsMIN) ^^

*****************************************************************************

I also noted that the winner for Monday Night Football is
HD 3 wins
HF 5 wins
RD 2 wins
RF 2 wins
(Remember earlier this year [ week 1 ] their were 2 games on MNF)

Home team is 8-4
Fav is 7-5

Week 12 results

ATS weekly
overall: 18-14-0
favored side or total: 10-6
best bets: 1-2

ATS season
overall: 158-160-10
favored side or total: 77-80-6
best bets: 22-27-2

AFC vs NFC
ATS 3-0 O/U 2-1

Saturday, November 25, 2006

Week 12 weekend

399 JAC -3 X
400 BUF 35.5 U

401 HOU 40 O
402 NYJ -5.5 X

403 PIT 38 U
404 BAL -3 X

405 CIN -3 X
406 CLE 42.5 U

407 ARI 39 X
408 MIN -6.5 O

409 SF 44.5 O
410 STL -5.5 X

411 NO 47.5 O
412 ATL -3 X

413 CAR -4.5 X
414 WAS 36 U

415 CHI 36.5 X
416 NE -3 U

417 PHI 44 U
418 IND -9 X

419 NYG -3 O
420 TEN 44 X

421 OAK 43 U
422 SD -13 X

423 GB 46 X
424 SEA -9.5 O

Monday, November 20, 2006

Week 12 Turkey day

303 MIA -2.5 X
304 DET 39.5 U

305 TB 39 U
306 DAL -11 X

307 DEN -1 X
308 KC 39 U

Week 11 results

ATS weekly
overall: 18-13-1
favored side or total: 9-7
best bets: 3-0

ATS season
overall: 140-146-10
favored side or total: 67-74-6
best bets: 21-25-2

AFC vs NFC
ATS 6-2 O/U 1-7

Week 11

better late than never....

211 OAK 35.5 U
212 KC -9.5 X

213 IND -1 X
214 DAL 48.5 U
**OC

215 CIN 51 O
216 NO -3.5 X
**OC

217 PIT 3.5 X
218 CLE 37 O

219 TEN 43 U
220 PHI -13 X
**OC

221 ATL 40 U
222 BAL -4 X
**OC

223 STL 44 U
224 CAR -7 X

225 BUF 36.5 X
226 HOU -2.5 U

227 NE 6 U
228 GB 44 X
**OC

229 WAS 34 U
230 TB -3 X

231 CHI -6.5 U
232 NYJ 38 X
**OC

233 MIN 34 U
234 MIA -3.5 X
**OC

235 DET 46 U
236 ARI -2.5 X

237 SEA -6.5 U
238 SF 45 X

239 SD 42 X
240 DEN -2.5 U

241 NYG 39 O
242 JAC -3.5 X
**OC

Tuesday, November 14, 2006

Week 10 results

ATS weekly
overall: 14-18
favored side or total: 7-9
best bets: 5-3

ATS season
overall: 122-133-9
favored side or total: 58-67-6
best bets: 18-25-2

weekly
team SU ATS O/U
cob 3-1 3-1 0-4

for the season
team SU ATS O/U
cob 19-13 19-13 15-16-1

AFc vs NFC 2-0 ATS & SU
road team 10-6 ATS
dog 11-5
O/U 6-10

Sunday, November 12, 2006

gameday thoughts

The moneyline w/
415 CLE +260
421 NO +170
427 GB +190 ** iffy GB needs to cut down on TO's, I just thought they should have won @BUF last week, but lost due to TO's***
I was thinkin' of 435 STL +150 but their D hasn't been gettin' TO's lately

PHI & ARI were on a slide heading into their bye week(CAR, NYJ wasn't much better)
I'm wondering if these teams can come out of their demise.
Both the Jet's (and NYJ is on the road) and Card's have tough opposition(Pat's, 'boys), the Eagles and Panthers should have a much easier time ('skins, Buc's)

Best over games SF @DET and KC @MIA

Saturday, November 11, 2006

Week 10

409 KC -1 X
410 MIA 40 O

411 HOU 37 U
412 JAC -10.5 X

413 SD -1 X
414 CIN 48 U

415 CLE 42 X
416 ATL -8 O

417 BAL -7 X
418 TEN 38 O

419 BUF 45 O
420 IND -12 X

421 NO 45 X
422 PIT -4 O

423 WAS 43 O
424 PHI -7 X
**PHI coming off bye

425 CHI 39 O
426 NYG -2 X

427 GB 39 O
428 MIN -5.5 X

429 NYJ 39.5 X
430 NE -10.5 O
**NYJ coming off bye

431 SF 45 O
432 DET -6 X

433 DEN -9 X
434 OAK 33 U

435 STL 43.5 X
436 SEA -3.5 O

437 DAL -7 X
438 ARI 43.5 O
**ARI coming off bye

439 TB 37 X
440 CAR -9.5 U
**CAR coming off bye

Monday, November 06, 2006

results week 9

ATS weekly
overall: 13-13-2
favored side or total: 6-7-1
best bets: 0-4

ATS season
overall: 108-115-9
favored side or total: 51-58-6
best bets: 13-22-2

weekly
team SU ATS O/U
cob 4-0 4-0 1-2-1

for the season
team SU ATS O/U
cob 16-12 16-12 15-12-1

This week AFC vs NFC games, AFC teams are 4-1 ATS

Thursday, November 02, 2006

Week 9

GM# Team spread/O/U (BOLD = favored side or total, Green = Best Bet)

207 KC 48 O
208 STL -3 X

209 CIN 41 O
210 BAL -3 X

211 HOU 43 U
212 NYG -13 X

213 TEN 37.5 X
214 JAC -9 O

215 DAL -3 X
216 WAS 42 U
** WAS coming off bye

217 GB 40 X
218 BUF -3 U
** BUF coming off bye

219 NO -1 X
220 TB 38.5 U

221 ATL -5.5 X
222 DET 47 O
** DET coming off bye

223 MIA 37.5 O
224 CHI -13.5 X
** MIA coming off bye

225 MIN -5.5 X
226 SF 42.5 O

227 CLE 42 X
228 SD -12.5 U

229 DEN 37 X
230 PIT -3 U

231 IND 48 X
232 NE -3 O

235 OAK 37.5 U
236 SEA -8 X

Monday, October 30, 2006

Results week 8

ATS weekly
overall: 10-17
favored side or total: 5-9
best bets: 1-2

ATS season
overall: 95-102-7
favored side or total: 45-51-5
best bets: 13-18-2

weekly
team SU ATS O/U
cob 3-3 3-3 6-0
gib 0-4 0-4 2-2

for the season
team SU ATS O/U
cob 12-12 12-12 14-10
gib 12-20 12-18-2 21-9-2

2nd straight week gib teams lost SU & ATS
all overs for cob teams

Thursday, October 26, 2006

Week 8

Gm # Team spread/O/U ( BOLD = favored side/total, Green = best bet )

401 HOU 42 X
402 TEN -3 U
** TEN coming off bye

403 JAC 43 O
404 PHI -6 X
** PHI going into bye

405 ATL 44 X
406 CIN -4.5 U

407 TB 41 X
408 NYG -9 O

409 SF 42 U
410 CHI -16.5 X
** SF coming off bye ** CHI coming off bye

411 ARI 44 O
412 GB -3.5 X
** ARI going into bye

413 SEA 38.5 U
414 KC -6 X

415 BAL 36.5 X
416 NO -2.5 U
** BAL coming off bye ** NO coming off bye

417 STL 45 X
418 SD -9 U
** STL coming off bye

419 PIT -9 X
420 OAK 38.5 U

421 NYJ 38 X
422 CLE -1.5 U
** NYJ going into bye

423 IND 38.5 X
424 DEN -2.5 O

425 DAL 41 O
426 CAR -5 X
** CAR going into bye

427 NE -2.5 O
428 MIN 38.5 X

Tuesday, October 24, 2006

results week 7

ATS weekly
overall: 15-11
favored side or total: 7-6
best bets: 3-2

ATS season
overall: 85-88-7
favored side or total: 40-42-5
best bets: 14-16-2

weekly
team SU ATS O/U
cob 4-2 4-2 3-3
gib 0-4 0-4 3-1

for the season
team SU ATS O/U
cob 9-9 9-9 8-10
gib 12-16 12-14-2 19-7-2

again over tendency for gib teams

Wednesday, October 18, 2006

week 7

209 SD -5.5 X
210 KC 40.5 U

211 JAC -9.5 X
212 HOU 40.5 U
**JAC coming off bye

213 NE -5 X
214 BUF 37 O
**NE coming off bye
**BUF going into bye

215 PIT -1.5 O
216 ATL 37 X

217 GB 41 X
218 MIA -4 O
**GB coming off bye
**MIA going into bye

219 PHI -5 X
220 TB 43 O

221 DET 41 X
222 NYJ -3.5 O
**DET going into bye

223 CAR 44.5 X
224 CIN -3.5 U

225 DEN -4.5 X
226 CLE 31 U
**CLE coming off bye

227 WAS 49 U
228 IND -9 X
**IND coming off bye
**WAS going into bye

229 MIN 41 U
230 SEA -6.5 X
**MIN coming off bye

231 ARI -3 X
232 OAK 40.5 U

235 NYG 46 O
236 DAL -3.5 X

Sunday, October 15, 2006

results week 6

ATS weekly
overall: 12-14
favored side or total: 7-6
best bets: 2-1

ATS season
overall: 70-77-7
favored side or total: 33-36-5
best bets: 11-14-2

weekly
team SU ATS O/U
cob 1-3 0-4 1-3
gib 3-3 2-4 6-0

for the season
team SU ATS O/U
cobwk5 2-2 3-1 1-3
cobwk4 2-2 2-2 3-1
totals 5-7 5-7 5-7

gibwk5 4-2 3-1-2 3-3
gibwk4 2-2 2-2 3-1
gibwk3 1-3 2-2 3-1
gibwk2 2-2 3-1 1-1-2
totals 12-12 12-10-2 16-6-2

notice: the Over tendency for teams going into bye week (last 3 weeks) and the Under tendency for teams coming off bye week the last 2 weeks

Monday, October 09, 2006

week 6

403 CIN -6 X
404 TB 42 U
** CIN coming off bye

405 TEN 39 X
406 WAS -10 U
**TEN going into bye

407 HOU 43 X
408 DAL -12.5 U
**HOU coming off bye

409 BUF -1 U
410 DET 39 X

411 SEA -3 X
412 STL 45 O
**SEA coming off bye
**STL going into bye

413 NYG 42.5 O
414 ATL -3 X
**ATL coming off bye

415 PHI -3 O
416 NO 46 X
**NO going into bye

417 CAR 33.5 U
418 BAL -3 X
**BAL going into bye

419 MIA 36 X
420 NYJ -2.5 U

421 SD -10 X
422 SF 42.5 U
**SF going into bye

423 KC 36.5 X
424 PIT -7 U

425 OAK 36.5 U
426 DEN -15 X

429 CHI -11 X
430 ARI 38 O
**CHI going into bye

week 5 results

Going into bye: su ats o/u
@ind 1-0 0-1 0-1
@min 1-0 1-0 1-0
@gb 0-1 0-0-1 1-0
@ne 1-0 0-0-1 0-1
cle 0-1 1-0 0-1
@jac 1-0 1-0 1-0
totals 4-2 3-1-2 3-3

Coming off bye: su ats o/u
@NYG 1-0 1-0 0-1
TB 0-1 1-0 1-0
PIT 0-1 0-1 0-1
@DEN 1-0 1-0 0-1
totals 2-2 3-1 1-3

ATS weekly
overall: 10-15-3
favored side or total: 5-7-2
best bets: 2-2-2

ATS season
overall: 58-63-7
favored side or total: 26-30-5
best bets: 9-13-2

note: last weeks results for week 4 was erroneous for best bets and should have read 7-10-1

Monday, October 02, 2006

Week 5

GM# team spread.O/U pick (BOLD - favored side/total, Green - Best Bet)

209 TEN 48 U
210 IND -19 X
**IND going into bye

211 WAS 45 X
212 NYG -4.5 O
**NYG coming off bye

213 DET 39.5 O
214 MIN -6.5 X
**MIN going into bye

215 TB 35 O
216 NO -6 X
**TB coming off bye

217 STL -3 X
218 GB 47 O
**GB going into bye

219 MIA 37.5 U
220 NE -10 X
**NE going into bye

221 BUF 34 X
222 CHI -11 U

223 CLE 37.5 O
224 CAR -8.5 X
**CLE going into bye

225 NYJ 38 X
226 JAC -7 O
**JAC going into bye

227 KC -3 X
228 ARI 40 O

229 OAK 41 X
230 SF -3.5 O

231 DAL 44 X
232 PHI -2 U

233 PIT 37.5 U
234 SD -3.5 X
**PIT coming off bye

237 BAL 33.5 X
238 DEN -4 O
**DEN coming off bye

Sunday, October 01, 2006

results week 4

game 1, 0-2 0-1
game 2, 2-0 1-0 best bet
game 3, 1-1 1-0 best bet
game 4, 1-1 1-0 best bet
game 5, 1-1 0-1
game 6, 2-0 1-0
game 7, 1-1 1-0
game 8, 0-2 0-1 best bet
game 9, 2-0 1-0 best bet
game 10, 0-2 0-1 best bet
game 11, 0-2 0-1
game 12, 0-1-1 0-1
game 13, 1-1 0-1
game 14, 1-1 0-1 best bet

Teams coming off bye ATS 2-2 (DAL,KC - SD, OAK) O/U 3-1 (DAL, KC, OAK - SD)
Teams going into bye ATS 2-2 (ATL, HOU - CIN, SEA) O/U 3-1 (ATL, CIN, SEA - HOU)

ATS week 4
overall: 12-15-1
favored side or total: 6-8
best bets: 4-3

ATS season
overall: 48-42-4
favored side or total: 21-23-3
best bets: 3-7-1

Monday, September 25, 2006

Week 4

GM# TEAM spread BOLD - favored side or total, Green - Best Bet

401 IND -9 X
402 NYJ 46 U

403 SD -2.5 U
404 BAL 33.5 X
SD coming off bye

405 MIN 34.5 X
406 BUF -1 U

407 DAL -9.5 X
408 TEN 37 U
DAL coming off bye

409 SF 40 X
410 KC -7 O
KC coming off bye

411 NO 42 X
412 CAR -7 U

413 ARI 40.5 U
414 ATL -7.5 X
ATL going into bye

415 MIA -4 X they call HOU the cure for an O ailments
416 HOU 40 O
HOU going into bye

417 DET 44 O
418 STL -6 X

419 NE 46 U
420 CIN -6 X
CIN going into bye

421 JAC -3 X
422 WAS 34.5 U

423 CLE -3 X
424 OAK 34 U
OAK coming off bye

425 SEA 35 X
426 CHI -3.5 O
SEA going into bye

427 GB 48 O
428 PHI -11 X

Sunday, September 24, 2006

results week 3

game 1, 0-2
game 2, 1-1, win
game 3, 1-0-1, push
game 4, 1-1
game 5, 1-1
game 6, 0-1-1 , loss best bet
game 7, 0-2, loss best bet
game 8, 1-1, win
game 9, 1-1, loss best bet, near upset of BAL by CLE
game 10, 1-1, road upset by STL
game 11, 1-1, win - who could have seen the over?
game 12, 1-1
game 13, 1-1, win best bet
game 14, 1-1, lost best bet

ATS weekly
overall:11-15-2
favored side or total: 4-9-1
best bets: 1-4 ...yikes!!

ATS season
overall: 47-41-4
favored side or total: 21-22-3
best bets: 3-6-1

Tuesday, September 19, 2006

week 3

gm# TEAMs (spread, O/U) BOLD favored side or total, italics weaker pick, GREEN best bet
199 NYJ 34.5 U
200 BUF -5.5 X
initially I took BUF, but decided on under instead. BUF's D should dominate game, 5.5 may be too much to cover. see http://www.footballoutsiders.com/2006/09/19/ramblings/any-given-sunday/4254/ midway down BUF's real secret is the #1 ST in NFL and conservative O play calling

201 CIN 41.5 X
202 PIT -1.5 U
I believe 1st half will be lower scoring than expected, PIT will score more than on MNF, but CIN will ultimately prevail, get the points while you can, by Sunday you may have to lay points w/CIN (*note PIT has a bye next week*)

203 JAC 44.5 X
204 IND -7 U
JAC w/it's great D and 7 pts are the money winner here, my only concern is the short week for JAC. I'm thinkin under though IND D is a couple of steps down from JAC D, this may really be an over contest, I'm just thinkin IND D will get some players back from INJ list

205 TEN 35.5 X
206 MIA -11 O
MIA should win but covering 11 is a lot, so total is much more tempting, though checking on TEN you'll notice that they only scored in 4th qtr and difference in scores for MIA games were 11 & 10 (game 1 & 2) so there is a likelyhood of covering w/a larger number, say 14?

207 WAS -4 X
208 HOU 37.5 U
I have a hard time taking WAS as O seems to be ineffective, it's just that HOU has OL inj's and will most likely have an OL shuffle w/2 positions. Here's a game where WAS D will win the game and their O will be setup w/easy field position

209 CHI -3 X
210 MIN 34 U
I believe MIN D is under rated, their OL has played very well, but CHI D is great and their O should score enough to cover the 3 pts. It was tough to pick either a side or total since I like each pick

211 CAR -3 X
212 TB 34 U
TB has OL issues and thus CAR should cover and total will go under again hard to pick either side or total as I really like both picks (* note TB going into bye week *)

213 GB 38.5 O
214 DET -7 X
GB's first road game of the year and at home they've allowed 26 & 34 pts (CHI & NO). Over is the only real worthwhile play though DET has not scored much (6 & 7, SEA & CHI). I just expect a much higher output from DET @home, but I couldn't really say they'll cover 7

215 BAL -6.5 X
216 CLE 33 U
BAL is clearly a playoff contender and CLE has a few more years, the total should go under as well

217 STL 45 U
218 ARI -4.5 X
I'm having a tough time picking either a side or total as STL is a bit of an enigma to me

219 NYG 44 U
220 SEA -3.5 X
2nd week in a row NYG gets to play a tough D, though I expect SEA knows how to close out games, the 1/2 pt hook should entice a lot of NYG bettors, though I expect the pros to look at the under first then SEA, I like both picks and chose the side due to the home field advantage of normally -3 (* NYG going into bye week *)

221 PHI -6 X
222 SF 42 U
Tough luck loss for PHI last week? or lesson on closing games? PHI should win and cover 6, I did notice that SF stats are dramatically better than last year on both O and D, I'm just counting on 10 to 14 pts and around 24pts from PHI

223 DEN 39 U
224 NE -7 X
DEN O appears to be on a downward spiral, NE scores at least 4 times a game so max 28 or min 12 and mid of 20, both side and total were very tempting (* DEN going into bye week *)

225 ATL -3.5 X
226 NO 42 U
NO has been doing very well on the road scoring pts. Look for ATL to dominate 1st half and perhaps let NO into the game in the 2nd half (4th qtr), though ATL D appears to be formidable and I don't believe NO will score more than 10 pts.

(* note - picking against the teams going into the bye week is just a coincidence. Last week teams going into bye week were 2-2 SU and 3-1 ATS. DAL & SD 2-0, KC 1-1, OAK 0-2 *)

Sunday, September 17, 2006

results week 2

Game #, ATS result, favored side or total - notation if best bet

game 1, 1-0-1, Under 34 Oak @Bal (push, best bet)
game 2, 1-1, IND -13.5, (win) I guess I could have chosen over, I just expected a little more D from both teams
game 3, 2-0, CIN -11 (win)
game 4, 2-0, under 37 BUF @MIA (win)
game 5, 0-2, DET +8.5 - ouch CHI D really dominated and DET's D well ....
game 6, 2-0, MIN +2 (win)
game 7, 1-1, NYG +3 (win) didn't expect over 42
game 8, 2-0, ATL -6 (win, best bet)
game 9, 1-1, under 38 NO @GB - another game where over the total was just not what I would expect
game 10, 1-1, STL -3 (loss, best bet), how can STL beat DEN but not beat SF???
game 11, 1-1, over 46.5 ARI @SEA - SEA covers but an under instead of over :-(
game 12, 0-2, under 37 NE @NYJ - just not enough w/NYJ you'd think Mangini would keep the score a little closer
game 13, 1-1, SD -11.5 (win)
game 14, 1-1, under 40 KC @DEN (win) - DEN what's going on?
game 15, 1-0-1, under 37 WAS @DAL (push)
game 16, 2-0, under 36.5 PIT @JAC (win)

ATS - weekly
overall: 19-11-2
favored side or total: 9-5-2
best bet: 0-1-1

ATS - season
overall: 36-26-2
favored side or total: 17-13-2
best bet: 2-2-1

Monday, September 11, 2006

week 2

I'm posting picks early as I will be working this weekend ...
(BOLD = favored side or total, green = best bet )

401 OAK 34 U
402 BAL -11.5 X
OAK did not look good at all, BAL is on a SB run w/McNair, Lewis and Co.

403 HOU 47 U
404 IND -13.5 X
Question, Just how much will IND score?

405 CLE 42 O
406 CIN -11 X
this game could go under 42. I just expect CIN to score 6x and whether its 30pts or 42pts they'll easily cover w/their home opener. CLE has multiple inj's in secondary.

407 BUF 37 X
408 MIA -7 U
had to take the points, I still believe MIA @home will play well and most likely win. It's just that BUF played well vs NE and I'm hoping for another close game.

409 DET 32 X
410 CHI -8.5 U
this may be my favorite 2 picker of the weekend

411 CAR -2 U
412 MIN 37 X
short week for MIN, but this is their home opener and I like home dogs especially w/CAR and OL shuffle w/3 players. Take this game on moneyline (-110) it may be late as game is now a pick'm

413 NYG 42 X
414 PHI -3 U
this may be the best matchup of the weekend

415 TB 36 U
416 ATL -6 X
TB has 2 starting OG not playing again this week, ATL in a rout (I'm hoping their DE's Kearney and Abraham play)

417 NO -1.5 X
418 GB 38 U
Is GB that bad that @home NO is favored? NO can stop the run, it'll be up to Favre and Co to turn it up at home, if their ST can win their game then they have a good chance of winning

419 STL -3 X
420 SF 44 U
STL D is on the rise and should cover easily, I'm just not sure of the over/under

421 ARI 46.5 O
422 SEA -7 X
Is DET that good? Their D definitely has risen or has SEA started on the road w/SB blues.
ARI let SF score 2x, I think SEA can double that and ARI will fall 1 TD short, that makes 7TD's

423 NE -6 U
424 NYJ 37 X
It's scary to take the points, 'cause Brady throws more on the road and can cover -6. Taking under is not a solid bet either as I can make the case for the over.

425 TEN 38.5 U
426 SD -11.5 X
Ouch that SD D is what will allow SD to cover the double digit number

427 KC 40 U
428 DEN -10 X
KC w/o QB T Green is why this spread is this large, cause DEN was mightly upset on the road @STL. Under 40 is the way to go and yes you can make a case for KC +10

429 WAS 37 U
430 DAL -5.5 X
get it while you can, even at -7 the 'boys should have a decent chance of covering the spread

431 PIT pk U
432 JAC 36.5 X
It's interesting that JAC isn't giving up 3 @home, instead this is a pick'm game and the under is the best bet.

results week 1 day 3

game 15, 1-1, MIN +4.5 (win) just short of going over (.5)
game 16, 1-1, under 43.5 SD @OAK (win)

ATS
overall 17-15
favored side or total 8-8
best bet 2-1

results week 1 day 2

game 2, 1-1, DEN -3.5 (best bet loss) ** this has got to be the biggest upset of the weekend**
game 3, 2-0, NYJ +3 (win)
game 4, 1-1, NE -8 ** a near upset, BUF was opportunistic
game 5, 1-1, TB -3 - on the road BAL impressive
game 6, 1-1, CIN +3 (best bet win) bettors changed the spread to pick'm or -1 on game day
game 7, 1-1, SEA -6 - DET D played very well
game 8, 2-0, ATL +6 (new) w/new teammates, they are back!
game 9, 1-1, PHI -4 (best bet win) - just not enough for over ...
game 10, 2-0, under 37 NO @CLE (win)
game 11, 0-2, under 36.5 - bettors changed the spread to DAL -1 on game day
game 12, 1-1, over 35 CHI @ GB
game 13, 0-2, under 42 SF @ARI
game 14, 1-1, IND -3 (win)

ATS
overall 15-13
favored side or total 6-8
best bet 2-1

Friday, September 08, 2006

results week 1 day 1

game 1, 1-1, under 34 MIA @PIT

ATS
overall 1-1
favored side or total 0-1
best bet 0-0

Friday, September 01, 2006

results preseason week 4 day 2

game 13, 1-1, GB -3 - bettors moved the number to TEN -1.5 due to reports of starters playing longer (now only if I had that info before I made my picks)

game 14, 0-2, PHI @NYJ under 33.5
game 15, 1-1, CIN -2.5 (win)
game 16, 1-1, SF -3.5 (win)

ATS
overall: 18-14
favored side or total: 11-5
best bet: 1-0

Thursday, August 31, 2006

results preseason week 4

game 1, 1-1, CAR @PIT under 33.5 (win, best bet)
game 2, 1-1, NE +3.5
game 3, 2-0 MIA -3 (win, not -43)
game 4, 1-1, BUF +3.5 (win)
game 5, 0-2, JAC @ATL under 36
game 6, 2-0, BAL @WAS under 34 (win)
game 7, 1-1, TB @HOU under 35 (win)
game 8, 1-1, MIN @DAL under 34.5 (win)
game 9, 2-0, CHI +3 (win)
game 10, 2-0, NO @KC under 37 (win)
game 11, 2-0, DEN +3.5 (win)
game 12, 0-2, OAK @SEA under 36.5

ATS
overall 15-9
favored side or total 9-3
best bet 1-0

Sunday, August 27, 2006

week 1

GM# TEAM spread pick (bold - favored side or total, green - best bet)

101 MIA 34 under
102 PIT pk X
Lines moved alot on news of PIT QB not playing total dropping from 37 and PIT as -5 fav. I know, I know I originally picked MIA, but the more I thought about it the circumstances are set for PIT's D to prove once again it is a dominant force and that MIA's D is aging.

203 DEN -3.5 X
204 STL 46.5 under
3.5? should be 14.5 ....

205 NYJ 36 X
206 TEN -3 under
with so much starting QB ?'s unanswered, TEN lacks unity and a field general. OUT TEN TE E Kinney

207 BUF 41 under
208 NE -9 X
let's see what Jauron and staff can come up with to stop NE, I didn't see or hear a thing yep that's NE w/$$ and nice cap management, they don't need a WR in this game

209 BAL 34.5 under
210 TB -3 X
hard to choose side or total as under 34.5 is likely to occur

211 CIN 45.5 X
212 KC -3 over
straight up upset take the moneyline in this game

213 SEA -6 X
214 DET 45 under
spread should at least be -7.5 for me to stop and think .... nahhhh make it 10.5 OUT - SEA TE J Stevens

215 ATL 40.5 X
216 CAR -6 under
might be the best game of the day, I was really tempted to take ATL +6 as my favored choice, one of the reasons is ATL has an extra player because they have a triple threat kicker for FG's , punts, and KO's. ATL doesn't have to carry a separate punter or FG/KO kicker and that allows another good player (ATL appears to have an extra FB) or consider him a good ST player, which is the often overlooked part of the team, but in this case may give ATL an edge. OUT ATL LB E Hartwell

217 PHI -4 X
218 HOU 37 over
Let's just say PHI is back and HOU is rebuilding, could be a laugher ...

219 NO 37 X
220 CLE -3 under
tough to pick, CLE has a little more exp playing w/each other and NO doesn't have depth, You could take CLE -3 and make a case for the $$ OUT CLE CB D McCutcheon

221 DAL 36.5 X
222 JAC -2.5 under
DAL may make me sorry for taking them, JAC is a deep team w/a lot of team speed OUT? DT M Stroud

223 CHI -3.5 X
224 GB 34.5 over
another laugher maybe, QB Grossman should be able to move ball and you know their D at home is just stout. GB appears to be in rebuilding mode, not reload/restock mode

225 SF 42 under
226 ARI -7.5 X
Will SF score? this looks like a nice two team pick. INJ's ARI - RT O Ross, LB K Dansby

227 IND -3 X
228 NYG 49 over
little bro, needs more seasoning ...

229 MIN 35.5 X
230 WAS -4.5 over
You can buy a win in the NFL, game could go under if weather and WAS comply. OUT CB S Springs

231 SD -3 under
232 OAK 43.5 X
taking OAK, only cause 1st game on the road for SD QB Rivers, he won't be nervous now will he?

preseason week 4

game team spread pick
(favored side or total:bold, best bet: green)

301 CAR -3 U
302 PIT 33.5 X

303 NE 35 X
304 NYG -3.5 O

305 STL 35.5 O
306 MIA -43 X

307 BUF 35 X
308 DET -3.5 O

309 JAC 36 U
310 ATL -3.5 X

311 BAL -1 X
312 WAS 34 U

313 TB 35 U
314 HOU -5 X

315 MIN 34.5 U
316 DAL -7 X

317 CHI 33.5 X
318 CLE -3 U

319 NO -2 U
320 KC 37 X

321 DEN 36.5 X
322 ARI -3.5 O

323 OAK -1 X
324 SEA 36.5 U

343 TEN 36 O
344 GB -3 X

345 PHI 33.5 U
346 NYJ -6.5 X

347 CIN -2.5 X
348 IND 40.5 O

349 SD 35.5 U
350 SF -3.5 X

results preseason week 3 day5

game 16, 2-0, CIN -5.5

ATS
overall 17-15
favored side/total 10-6
best bet 3-0

results preseason week 3 day4

game 15, 0-2 , DEN -6, - HOU D is doing well holding DEN scoreless for a 1.5 quarters. Could it be other D's will notice and make it tougher on DEN O? I'm wondering if DEN will be as good this year as Kubiak brought 5 coaches from DEN to HOU and GM Rick Smith followed. Perhaps DEN is in the beginning of the downslope?

ATS
overall 15-15
favored side/total 9-6
best bet 3-0

results preseason week 3 day3

game 7, 0-2, BUF -3.5, BUF played better than CLE in 1st half

game 8, 1-1, under 42 IND @NO* (win) - reports on IND game scheme were correct (came out after I made picks) Manning made NO D look pathetic

game 9, 1-1, over 35 WAS @NE* (win) - another game where you wonder what is WAS doing, as they don't appear to be ready for season

game 10, 2-0, DAL -6.5* (win, also best bet) - SF O ho hum don't look around cause I can't score, DAL played as expected

game 11, 0-2, under 34 TB @JAC - lotsa of scoring late, 1st half D's dominated, JAC appears to be more "error prone"

game 12, 1-1, over 37.5 ATL @TEN - this year their seems to be alot of have's and have not's guess which category ATL and TEN fall in

game 13, 2-0, KC -3.5* (win) KC played well in 1st half, STL well ... they need work

game 14, 1-1, SD -3.5*(win) - sub'd SEA QB in 2nd qtr, should have known better and looked for the over

ATS
overall 15-13
favored side/total 9-5
best bet 3-0


have's
NE, IND, DEN, SD, SEA, DAL, CIN, PIT,

have's 2nd tier
ATL, MIA, PHI, NYG, CAR, TB, JAC, ARI

in between (lean: haves+, have nots-)
BAL+, OAK-, KC-, WAS-, CHI+, MIN+, GB-, STL-

have not's
BUF, NYJ, CLE, TEN, HOU, DET, NO, SF,



Saturday, August 26, 2006

results preseason week 3 day2

game 2, 0-2, CHI -3, - ARI played better than CHI, though ARI OL holding not called by refs. ARI scored TD, while CHI settled for FG's in 1st half. ARI appears to be an improved team(the NFC W just got tougher). CHI appears to be in a holding pattern, w/no real O punch or is it play calling?

game 3, 1-1, NYG -4.5* (win) whooooweee NYG has D, NYJ well ... D is better than O

game 4, 1-1, BAL +2.5 - BAL O has too many errors, MIN D is playing much better (Tampa 2 cover? I see a lot of man coverage great DL pressure). MIN needs run O production. Both D's played well in 1st qtr.

game 5, 2-0, PHI -2.5* (best bet, win, forgot to note Under play), - hhmmm hard to gauge PIT, PHI is playing more inspired (less inj's) O is highly productive (spread cover? play on early often) PHI run D though appears suspect

game 6, 2-0, OAK -3 * (win) - Raider's have a definite attitude change, D is playing better, can O sustain play? DET needs a lot of work (bet against 1st regular season game and more?)

ATS
overall 7-5
favored side/total 4-2
best bet 2-0

Thursday, August 24, 2006

results preseason week 3

Game record favored side/total (notes)
game 1, 1-1, Under 36.5 (best bet) - I missed beginning of game (1st half) and tried a 2nd half bet which was correct w/total, but wrong w/side. :-(

ATS
overall 1-1
favored side/total 1-0
best bet 1-0

Wednesday, August 23, 2006

must read FO article

Every Play doesn't count Week 2 Football Outsiders article, consider this a primer, I agree w/many of their observations. Why not all, sadly day job(s)/sleep, keep me from watching all preseason games, though the NFL network definitely has made it easier.

Monday, August 21, 2006

preseason week 3

gm# team line pick ( picks in bold = favored side or total / green = best bet )
251 MIA 36.5 X
252 CAR -6 U

253 ARI 33.5 U
254 CHI -3 X

255 NYG -4.5 X
256 NYJ 35.5 O

257 BAL 35.5 X
258 MIN -2.5 U

259 PIT 35.5
260 PHI -2.5 X

283 DET 36 U
284 OAK -3 X

261 CLE 34.5 O
262 BUF -3.5 X

263 IND -3.5 U
264 NO 42 X
NO should be motivated after poor showing vs DAL, question is how long will QB Manning play?

265 WAS 35 X
266 NE -3 O
prior game comments: Gibbs' terse postgame comments weren't lost on his players.
"I think we need to come out with a little more emotion than we came out with, and I'm sure that's what (Gibbs) is concerned about," offensive tackle Jon Jansen said. " … Every time we go out, we go out to win ballgames." WAS does have alot of inj's and most of salary is w/starters not backups and points to a weakness w/WAS when backups are playing.

269 SF 35 U
270 DAL -6.5 X

271 TB 34 X
272 JAC -3 U

273 ATL 37.5 X
274 TEN -2.5 O
TEN another motivated team due to drubbing @DEN

275 STL 38.5 U
276 KC -3.5 X

277 SEA 37 U
278 SD -3.5 X

279 HOU 39 O
280 DEN -6 X

281 GB 42 O
282 CIN -5.5 X

results qb exp week 2 day5

game 16, 0-2, NO +3 (best bet) - LT for both teams were beaten in 1st qtr by DE. Speed rush w/NO DE beat DAL LT and bull rush w/DAL beat NO LT. DAL just has more options on O and a dominant DL. NO is wishing it had more options. NO O not enough work? reminds me of TEN @DEN, perhaps next week coaches will instruct D's to let opponent O to score in order for O to have more reps.


ATS
overall: 11-21
favored side/total: 8-8
best bet: 1-2

Sunday, August 20, 2006

results qb exp week 2 day4

game 14, 0-2, SF +3 (best bet) - OAK now 3-0 preseason, I guess SF is still rebuilding

game 15, 0-2, SEA +2.5 *(win) - QB's for both IND and SEA looks very good. SEA OL is still dominating inside 20. Second game in a row IND has ST "trickery" on kickoff/punt. I'd say SEA is a little deeper at most positions

ATS
overall: 11-19
favored side/total: 8-7
best bet: 1-1

again O/U 0-2 picks overall 4-11 (1-9 past 2 days) really crash/burn w/totals this weekend

Saturday, August 19, 2006

results qb exp week 2 day3

game 6, 1-1, MIA +2.5 *(win) - TB QB Simms got a FG from their 1st drive, 2nd drive wasn't good and 3rd drive OL didn't play as well (QB Rattay took over in 2nd qtr)
[ note: 2nd week in a row 1st score for TB is a FG].
MIA QB Culpepper played into 2nd and got into a rhythm (or TB D called off dogs in 2nd qtr) and got a TD. D's for both team are ahead of O.

game 7, 1-1, CAR +3 *(win) - CAR scored on 1st possession for 2nd week in a row, looking very good even against a very quick and tough JAC D. JAC QB Leftwich did not play for long (no TD or FG) QB Garrard and O played into 3rd, but CAR D proven to be up to the challenge and is at least a notch better than JAC

game 8, 0-2, ARI @NE over 37.5 - wow NE looks like in mid-season form QB Brady played for a lot longer than I thought he would and QB Cassell did well. QB Leinhart did well at first. Rain in 2nd half. I find it interesting that Eisen on NFL networks called the game "NE Brady vs ARI Leinhart" on highlights. ARI QB Warner is not getting any love, though I believe he's a team player and is really needed for Leinhart's ascent as well as ARI ascent this year. NE D (1st team) did very well vs ARI O (1st team). I should have been looking for ARI to be "flat" on the road after opening stadium last weekend.

game 9, 0-2, ATL +3 - After a poor showing last week @SD, GB really stepped it up this week, lucky at times, effort (speed) was a lot better @home. ATL Vick did good, just INT was bad spot. I thought ATL QB Schaub would play better.

game 10, 2-0, MIN +3.5 *(win) - PIT QB "Big Ben" played well scored TD, Safety Polamalu was out of position (got beat) a couple of times (losing 1/2 a step?). PIT w/o Roethlisberger is a different team as O is inconsistent, though prior preseasons were about the same and they are defending SB champs . I just wish PIT was more in sync during preseason. MIN OL played good, QB Johnson played very well as did RB C Taylor.

game 11, 0-2, STL-3.5 - HOU DE M Williams played a lot better, STL still has problems w/ST and did you notice STL 1st team has yet to score a TD?

game 12, 0-2, WAS -3 - you gotta expect a lot better effort next week from WAS as NYJ had their way for the most part except for the 1st qtr when neither team scored. It's two weeks in a row that WAS has not played well. NYJ OL and RB's played a lot better, ST hmmm punter needs work. NYJ RB L Washington, small by NFL standards (blocking), but a very smart (reads D very well) and quick runner. NYJ O attacked the edges of WAS D very well. Wet field.

game 13, 1-1, DEN -5.5 *(win) wet field, DEN @home adjusted quickly, TEN appeared to be very tentative at times.

ouch!... O/U totals, picks 1-7 (w/l) sigh...
sides break even at .500 (4-4)
Did you notice the dog was 5-1?

I came out ahead on my bets. How? I bet three 2-team parlays. A 2 team parlay pays $26 on a $10 bet. I had 3 $10 bets (or $30 out of pocket). I lost 2 bets (lost $20) won 1 bet (win $26 + original $10).
I ended up w/$36 in my pocket. That' s $6 more than what I started. So a little ahead. (20%)


ATS
overall: 11-15
favored side/total: 7-6
best bet: 1-0

Friday, August 18, 2006

results qb exp week 2 day2

game 3, 2-0, CIN +3.5 - CIN QB Wright is playing well, BUF is truly rebuilding and QB controversy? will only stagnate growth of team.

game 4, 0-2, DET @CLE Under 34 - NFL Network Analyst Marshall Faulk is very revealing in his assessment of DET and the Martz O w/Kitna at the controls. DET appears to be a team that getting points early in the season will be worthy of a play

game 5, 1-1, SD @CHI over 35.5 - while watching the game QB Grossman shows his greenness in throwing into double coverage, remember he has yet to play a whole season or even half a season and makes the mistakes of a rookie QB. QB Griese is the better QB and after all his travels is the seasoned QB that could take CHI to the promise land. QB Rivers as well makes rookie mistakes, I still think trading Brees was a mistake as SD has all the components to make a title run within AFC except for a QB to count on. SD RB Turner "The Burner" looks better and better and would start on many other teams.

ATS
overall: 6-4
favored side/total: 3-2
best bet: 1-0

Thursday, August 17, 2006

results qb exp week 2

game 1, 2-0 NYG -3.5 (also best bet)
game 2, 1-1 PHI @BAL under 34.5, BAL really wanted to win

ATS
overall 3-1
favored side/total 2-0
best bet 1-0

watching KC you get the feeling their DL and OL will have problems from the start. QB Trent Green plays well, but OL is lacking ???, DL had no penetration on several plays and were pushed around by NYG OL and allowed chunks of running yardage. NYG looks like they'll be favored for the rest of the preseason.

I noticed the absence of the words 1st qtr, 2nd qtr, 3rd qtr and 4th qtr. When did Fox start using those yellow dots. I read better than looking at those tiny dots. I guess if you have a small TV set you're outta luck w/the dots or you could turn up the volume for Buck and Aikman.

The Live Game stats at nfl.com is nice and reminds me of a similar scheme at arenafootball.com which I encounter prior to trying the NFL "live game stats"

Monday, August 14, 2006

Preseason QB exp 8/17-21 week 2

GM# team line qb exp pick
451 KC 38 12 U
452 NYG -3.5 17 X

453 PHI 34.5 19 X
454 BAL -3 7 U

455 CIN 35.5 15 X
456 BUF -3.5 15 O

457 DET 34 6 X
458 CLE -2.5 7 U

459 SD 35.5 6 O
460 CHI -3 12 X

461 MIA 34 9 X
462 TB -2.5 8 O

463 CAR 35 8 X
464 JAC -3 8 O

465 ARI 37.5 5 X
466 NE -3.5 2 O

467 ATL 36 4 X
468 GB -3 3 U

469 MIN 34.5 11 X
470 PIT -3.5 10 U

471 HOU 38.5 9 U
472 STL -3.5 19 X

473 NYJ 34.5 9 U
474 WAS -3 16 X

475 TEN 36.5 1 U
476 DEN -5.5 5 X

477 SF 37 24 X
478 OAK -3 9 O

479 SEA 39.5 8 X
480 IND -2.5 10 U

481 DAL -3 7 U
482 NO 35.5 24 X

results - qb experiment 8/6-14/06 day5 & 6

ATS
game 16, 1-1, I guess Gibbs & Co are content, only 3 pts ...very vanilla
game 17, 0-2, oh well I'm 0-fer w/OAK, they really want to win. QB T Jackson looks good (a steal for MIN). I wonder how long will QB Brooks will last? QB Walter seems to be picking up O fairly quickly.

overall 21-12-1 (63.6%)
Best Bets: 2-0
Favored side or total: 12-5 (70.5%)

I was unable to watch the majority of games due to job(s) commitment, watch'n NFL network, Cutler's passing prowess is getting the growl, I wonder if RB L Betts can carry the load for WAS?

Saturday, August 12, 2006

results - qb experiment 8/6-14/06 day4

ATS
game 9, 2-0
game 10, 2-0
game 11, 1-1, side on the $$, total should have seen the over
game 12, 1-1, I could have been 0-2 as total was @37 or less pts for the most part, side ??
though in my earlier post HOU is the way to go and against my earliest post, but good info will change your mind, I still would have ended up 1-1 just correct on side, wrong on total
game 13, 1-1, side on the $$, just short of total as I thought O was in effect
game 14, 1-1, should have paid more attention to qb exp more than GB scrimmage ...
game 15, 2-0,

overall: 20-9-1
Best Bets: 2-0
Favored side or total: 12-3

favored side/total track record
0-1 phi -3
1-0 under 33 cle @phi
0-1 over 40.5 ind @stl
1-0 tb -3.5
1-0 under 38 den @det
1-0 nyg +3
0-1 under 37 ne @atl
1-0 sf +2.5
1-0 under 36 pit @ari (also best bet)
1-0 buf +4.5
1-0 jac +3
1-0 under 38.5 kc @hou
1-0 no +1.5
1-0 under 37 gb @sd (also best bet)
1-0 dal +3
?-? over 35.5 was @cin
?-? min -3

Friday, August 11, 2006

results - qb experiment 8/6-14/06 day3

ATS
game 4, 2-0
game 5, 2-0
game 6, 1-1 side correct, you may have gotten a push on total
game 7, 0-1-1, push side, I could have predicted over total
game 8, 2-0
overall, 10-5-1

I watched the beginning of NE @ATL game and watched NE RB's making large gains. Maroney and Dillon had several nice runs. NE's young OL (all starting 5 <29 yrs old) did very well. Mora wanted to win even more than Belichick? (spelling)

Info at covers.com really makes the under 38.5 (and dropping) for the KC @HOU game another good play and taking a look at HOU -3 highly worthy of another play.

Thursday, August 10, 2006

results - qb experiment 8/6-14/06 day2

ATS
game 2, 2-0
game 3, 0-2
overall 3-3

a little goal line stance, by CLE D - nice, or wonderment for PHI if they can't punch it in, less than 3 yds away you wonder how they'll score during regular. It is nice to note that PHI is running the ball more. CLE O well lets just call it "work in progress". PHI DL appears to be deep.

fell asleep after halftime of IND @STL game, IND starters look to be in mid season form. They should cover for the first month fairly easily and for the moneyline parlays a must on my ticket.
Its a wonder that STL had trouble w/IND D which had some of their starters out, perhaps a clue for the season w/STL and O, though I must say run O looked very good at times.

updated line:
Game # Team QB exp line pick

281 OAK 8 36.5 O
282 MIN 11 -3 x

Monday, August 07, 2006

results - qb experiment 8/6-14/06

ATS 1-1 ( O/U win, side loss) sure was a lot of blitzing and OAK really wanted to win, compared to PHI

updated odds:

game #TeamQB explinepick
251 CLE 6 33 U
252 PHI 19 -3 X

Sunday, August 06, 2006

an experiment w/qb experience 8/6 - 8/14

During preseason if you blink you may miss the starting QB play, with this in mind I added up the remaining QB's years of experience and made a note for this weeks games. I changed the font to BOLD to reflect if I favor the side or the total. I changed the font to Green to reflect a best bet.

Game # Team QB exp line pick
451 OAK 8 36 U
452 PHI 18 -3 X

251 CLE 6 no line as of 8/5
252 PHI 18

253 IND 9 40.5 O
254 STL 19 -2.5 X

255 NYJ 9 33.5 U
256 TB 21 -3.5 X

257 DEN 5 pk U
258 DET 7 38 X

259 NYG 17 35 X
260 BAL 8 -3 O

261 NE 4 37 X
262 ATL 4 -3 U

263 CHI 12 -2.5 O
264 SF 24 34.5 X

265 PIT 9 36 X
266 ARI 5 -3 U

267 BUF 13 35.5 X
268 CAR 8 -4.5 U

269 JAC 8 34 X
270 MIA 8 -3 U

271 KC 11 -1 X
272 HOU 9 38.5 U

273 NO 23 37 X
274 TEN 3 -1.2 O

275 GB 2 37 X
276 SD 6 -4 U

277 DAL 7 37 X
278 SEA 8 -3 U

279 WAS 14 35.5 O
280 CIN 15 -1 X

281 OAK 8 no line as of 8/5
282 MIN 11

notes: NO, CLE, CIN & GB/SD

NO:
veteran QB rotation Brees, Jamie Martin, Todd Bouman
preseason week 1 273 +1 @TEN

CLE:
starters out: C (season), RT (4-6 weeks), CB (4-6 weeks)

CIN notes:
Projected starter @QB Anthony Wright (Preseason Game 1, 2, 3, 4 and regualar season).
QB Palmer is perhaps @50% after week 1

GB notes:
RB Noah Herron looked much more comfortable w/zone blocking scheme and performed better than RB Gado during intrasquad scrimmage on NFL Network.
FG Kickers sucked, missing ? ? ? ? ? so many tries in a row even alternating kickers.
QB Favre is still the same, very good, will take chances
QB Rodgers looks much more comfortable than last year
QB Wrobel(Winona St) not bad(not a threat to Rodgers), needs more seasoning
Rookie WR Jennings looks ready to start

LB Hawk has great speed and range covering both the right side of the field and impressively coming over to the left again and again during the scrimmage.
I liked LB Hodge as the bookend he's fairly stout and they are deeper and talented at the position this year.
Clayton's observations are much more thorough than mine.

Take this quote on D:
"The Packers have enough athletes on defense that they won't fall into the Cover 2 trend that's taking over the NFC North. Cornerbacks will be playing mainly man-to-man. Linebackers will be aggressive. Defensive linemen will fire up the field. The Packers are carrying over the aggressive Jim Bates defense from a year ago.
"We're using about 95 percent of last season," Barnett said. "It's the defense that allowed Jason Taylor to get all of those sacks [in Miami]. There will be a lot of third-down blitzing."
The addition of Woodson solidifies the Packers' pass coverage for the first time since the team traded Mike McKenzie to the Saints during the 2004 season. Woodson teams up with Al Harris, moving the oft-penalized Ahmad Carroll into the No. 3 cornerback role. " nice....

and this one on O:
"Longtime Packers like McCarthy's fresh approach to the offense. In some ways he's giving Favre a little more freedom than Holmgren and Mike Sherman did. Though the system is still the West Coast offense and McCarthy teaches it in its purest form, McCarthy isn't as rigid with the progression system. He's allowing for more playmaking.
"Now, we are going deep," wide receiver Donald Driver said. "We're airing it out past 20 yards instead of just the short, underneath routes. He's trying to jump on people from the beginning. It's not more one, two, three progressions. Whoever wins against the defensive backs gets the ball."
One of the staples of the Packers' West Coast offense has always been the decoys. In most routes, one receiver would go deep to clear out an area for the intended receiver. With McCarthy, all the receivers are in play."
Keep in mind w/Favre at the wheel this will happen, hopefully Rodgers will rise to the challenge should he be called upon.

I noticed DE KGB speed and the LT was beat, w/Favre he'll see it coming ( he is a lefty right?) but I need to check the other QB's I believe they are righty's and thus the LT position would need to play better.

275 GB +4 travels to SD for 1st preseason game. I like GB's QB rotation. I need to check on who plays after QB Rivers. Note: GB won last year 10-7 1st game preseason w/a team not as good/deep and SD has pretty much the same team w/all starters penciled in and RB Tomilinson does not play.

"Tomlinson almost always sits out exhibition games, so odds are fans won't see him when the Chargers host Green Bay next Saturday and Seattle on Aug. 26." see "Sore Neck? LT practices"

Monday, July 31, 2006

Sunday, July 30, 2006

TwoMinuteWarning.com

Hey, why do the research when someone else has? The preseason is in full bloom and http://www.twominutewarning.com/nfl-preseason-picks-2006.htm has an amazing amount of time to check stats and correlate to an edge.
http://www.twominutewarning.com/nfl-preseason-picks1.htm shows preseason records from '97-'05
but you could skip it all and check their recommendations
http://www.twominutewarning.com/preseason-picks3.htm

and for the regular season they have free tools which will come in handy when combined w/divine insight ....
http://www.twominutewarning.com/tools.htm

I decided to join their Forum and spotted these comments (you may need to register "free" to read link) http://www.twominutewarning.com/forums/showthread.php?t=420 it details effect of preseason wins/losses on Season Over/Under totals

263/264 CHI @SF 8/11

I noticed C Newberry and QB Dilfer will be playing together, SF +2.5 is the current spread, QB Hill also has NFLE experience (named Offensive Player of the Week 2x '03) and QB Palmer (xNYG) Looks like to me a big time upgrade in the experience department. CHI also upgraded their QB rotation(Grossman, Griese, Orton, BJ Symons), so 34.5 is a bit low. CHI does have depth for most of their D positions so I guess I'm waffling on total. CHI holds the edge w/ST, FG, KO and punting (their undrafted kicker and punter are more than decent). It'll be a late (last) game I hope to see it on NFL network. Home dogs are always interesting to look at and this game is very interesting....

Thursday, July 27, 2006

and the rankings begin

The Football Outsiders crew have begun posting their ranking of positions by teams.
http://msn.foxsports.com/nfl/story/5764156 QB's
http://msn.foxsports.com/nfl/story/5794000?CMP=OTC-K9B140813162&ATT=5 OL's
http://msn.foxsports.com/nfl/story/5785564 WR's & TE's
http://msn.foxsports.com/nfl/story/5776936 RB's

So we have the O and I expect the D will come along soon.

You could review the QB's and pick up who has a better crop of QB's after their starter and choose a side w/preseason football around the corner. It's just a strategy, but one that is easily overruled by what the coach says, "rules".

Sunday, July 23, 2006

Preseason strategies

Normally, I'll place an occasional bet on preseason games. The edge that I'm looking for is how will the head coaches approach the game.

Ideally you'd have both coaches announcing how long they'll play their starters for the game, which is normally a series, a quarter, a half or even the majority of the game. The reality is you might hear/read about a team's coach strategy, regimen, or personnel playing. You won't know about both teams approach and the coaches change their mind on the fly or at the half.

Their have been instances when a coach will try to win each preseason game. You'll see this normally w/new coaches w/new players that need "seasoning". With ten "new HC's" (some on their second/third team as HC) this is likely to happen. The most likely candidates are (in no particular order) GB-McCarthy, HOU-Kubiak, MIN-Childress, NO-Payton, NYJ-Mangini, and STL-Linehan.
BUF-Jauron, DET-Marinelli, KC-Edwards, OAK-Shell are much older and conservative coaches in my mind (you could put Kubiak in this group, but I had to place him somewhere and w/a new OC and OL?'s I leaned toward winning preseason games) and will more likely do grouping of personnel and evaluate on a more conservative scale.

Another clue that may give me an edge is the quality of the backups. If the backups could start on another team and they play the majority of the game, they are more likely to beat the other teams backups.

This year the Ravens have acquired several ST players from other teams and appear to be a much more veteran unit than most teams. I believe McNair will be playing longer than a series or two to have him and his WR's in sync prior to the regular season and they competition @safety.

Dallas has ?'s along OL and QB Drew Henson played very well in NFL Europe, so look for OL to play longer together and w/a good backup QB may be on the plus side of the ledger.

Another stategy is to rate the 3rd string QB's and find out how long will they play? Early in the preseason, they'll account for at least a half, w/some teams 3 quarters and w/a few almost the whole game. Usually the seasoned veterans play better than the new rookie.
Bears appear to have a veteran roster of QB's

I've noticed that blitz packages are appearing during preseason. In the past this was not the case, but this seems to be occuring much more often due to the DC wanting to test the effectiveness of his scheme/grouping vs a known OC package/scheme. This will keep the total score lower than normal (say 38? during the regular season the norm is in the low 40's).
Raiders may fit this build w/a very young secondary.


I'd like to test the theory that if the same teams will meet in the regular season, they will play a more vanilla game and thus keep the total low again, but I don't have the time (day job, whew).

I like to see a coach upset after a game, even in the preseason, the thought is the players will play much better the next game after having a disappointing outing and give you a better than even chance in covering the spread for the upcoming game.

Caution: at this time, the NFL.com site doesn't have the updated player rosters, even the official team sites are behind in updating their rosters. You'd have a much easier time purchasing a football magazine such as Phil Steele's Pro Football scorebook or his Power Sweep newsletter for a much more accurate view of preseason rosters

Update: I've read that TEN HC Fisher will emphasize the runnin' game and w/a plethora of RB's this may make a more interesting preseason. Run the ball more means less time for other team to score and if they can score runnin' the ball this will bode very well for this team or is it just a ploy to protect QB's? You can count on DEN as well w/their group of RB's and to a lesser extent CHI and IND.

NYJ will have QB's in a tizzy, ATL w/DT/NT emphasis and kicker's duel. I wonder will SD have QB Rivers playing several series from the first game? PHI will also have their DL playing alot and NE maybe looking for opportunities to test their FG unit as well.

Sportsmemo.com

I started listening to their radio show around 99-00 season, back then they were known by another name but for the life of me I can't remember it. Anyway, websites changes, handicappers come and go, but the stalwarts remain and evolve.
If you missed their local morning daily show (M-F, 1460AM in 'vegas) you could always download it from their website http://www.sportsmemo.com/radio/archive/. They've gone coast to coast w/agreements to broadcast in several markets a couple of years ago and now they're on satellite radio (I can't remember which one or if they're on both).

Their blogs http://www.sportsmemo.com/blogs/ is indispensible, just full of betting angles. After listening to their "picks" on side/total they're leaning toward, you can almost guess what their 20 star play will be for the day. If you don't have time to handicap yourself, you ought to try out their packages, just remember no one can win all their picks, but when these 'cappers get hot, you can go weeks w/o a miss, which of course translates to $$$$. Money management is always the key when betting on sports, bet single picks (team/game) consistently w/the same amount is an easy way to start, then evolve to more as sophisticated betting strategies as the learning curve is surmounted.

Join their forum, http://www.sportsmemo.com/forum/ and "rub elbows" w/the handicappers and others as well. It's enlightening, fun and an opinionated crew of posters. They'll run free contests that let you measure your own "edge" vs other participants.

I hope they continue on for sometime, this past week I heard about betonsports.com indictment by US gov (on radio show) and I'm wondering the effect it may have on other handicapping sites. All things considered (or at least I think I am) this is the best established site that has evolved much more nicely than other sites out on the 'Net. I can only hope for the best ....

Saturday, July 22, 2006

The Football Outsiders

One day I believe these guys will be very well known outside of the football community. Their site, http://www.footballoutsiders.com/ is chock full of stats. Sure you can get stats at NFL.com, but can you interpret stats the way these guys do? They even have their own stats that they track and have been fairly accurate in observations. There are lots of comments, stats and perhaps the most resourceful is http://www.footballoutsiders.com/links.php where you can find a whole lot of links to a whole lot of site. I just wish I could find their atom/rss feed. I know they have one, just finding it on the site is not easy. They sell an annual prospectus, but it's meant for the fantasy football player. Still a very useful site and you can't beat the price as they are free (but who knows for how long??)

Kirwan's insights

OK, I'm biased, Kirwan is one of my fav's. His articles are written w/the wisdom that comes from years of involvement w/the game. He isn't always right, but more often than not he is dead on w/his observations.
Here's his main page http://www.nfl.com/writers/kirwan
among his recent posts, these ring so true http://www.nfl.com/news/story/9536257 (pay attention to the last paragraph, I believe the Ravens will do well in preseason),
http://www.nfl.com/news/story/9489023 ( so that's which way SU I'd bet against most teams w/new HC's ), here you might notice which teams are the hardest to defend and why http://www.nfl.com/news/story/9473554 (so when key players go down, you could just bet the side, but I'd also bet the total) and finally perhaps betting a side and total could be worthwhile this year on the 'boys http://www.nfl.com/news/story/9444769
Wish I had Sirius radio, but guess I'll just wait for his posts ...