Tuesday, December 31, 2013

2013 - week 18, playoffs - picks

Early thoughts and more....

Last week GB, SD, PHI played win and they're in, essentially another playoff game, thus this will be their 2nd wk in-a-row where they must win. Keeping your juices flowing isn't so easy two weeks in a row.
This may be a good separate parlay to try (bet against GB, SD, PHI)
**SF, CIN, NO** and maybe IND since they really played hard last week w/starters and KC did not.

Bet on the older team (based on starters):
**KC, NO, SD, SF**
(note: CIN starters had more games last year than SD)

Bet on the older QB:
**KC, NO, SD, GB**

Bet on QB w/end of season higher QB rating:
KC( 89.1) IND( 87.0)
NO(104.7) PHI(119.2)
SD(105.5) CIN( 88.8)
SF( 91.6) GB (104.9)
**KC, PHI, SD, GB**

Bet on the higher QB O-D rating:
KC( 7.6) IND( 3.3)
NO(21)  PHI(18)
SD( 9.2) CIN(15)
SF(16)  GB (-7.5)
**KC, NO, CIN, SF**

Bet on the higher scoring efficiency O-D rating:
KC( 3%) IND(7%)
NO(10%) PHI(3%)
SD( 9%) CIN(5%)
SF(11%) GB (3%)
**IND, NO, SD, SF**

01/04 4:35 PM
101 KC 46½ *
102 IND -2½ over

IND won wk16 23-7 @KC
Was KC playin' possum in wk16? (Knowing they could not improve playoff position at that time). Last week the majority of KC backups played and they almost won the game on the road @SD.
IND starters played hard for their win vs JAC last weekend, so we'll have a clash of philosophies this weekend, play 'em and keep them hot or rest 'em and stay healthy for the final 4 games (if you make it to SB).

01/04 8:10 PM
103 NO 54 OVER
104 PHI -2½ *

total is far more tempting than side, these teams should score in the 30's
NO hasn't played well on the road this season and PHI hasn't played much better at home. NO is the more 'seasoned' team, but PHI O has shown itself to be dynamic and w/ST that can be a field changer. If weather becomes a factor, you really can only look at PHI.

01/05 1:05 PM
105 SD 47 under
106 CIN -7 ***

CIN won wk13 17-10 @SD
It's hard to pick SD. SD QB Rivers is playing his best ball since ?? at least several seasons ago, but they couldn't dominate KC backups last weekend and needed OT and a non-called penalty by referees in regulation that probably cost PIT a playoff spot. CIN has been one and done for the past two years. Looks like they get over a hump this year (just like ATL last year).

01/05 4:40 PM
107 SF -3 *
108 GB 48 under

SF won wk1 34-28 @home
GB won last weekend often going for it on 4th down. Good fortune follow the bold and brave. I don't think GB OL will hold up well vs SF DL and GB QB Rodgers may need to endure multiple sacks to have a chance at winning.

2013 - week 17 - results

CAR @ATL, FOX, interesting as far as ATL playing much better, but CAR D comes thru and gets a TO for a score, but CAR O still sputters on 3rd down. Just barely watched this game.
1/1 update: I forgot to mention that ATL TE Gonzales final home game, SU loss, ATS win. This ATS trend is impressive.

BAL @CIN, CBS, CIN in no longer lil' bro to BAL. Flacco can't hit deep ball with any consistency and couldn't score TD's off of two CIN TO's. This really stood out FG's won't cut it vs CIN and an O that continued to attack during the game. It's odd how BAL run O did fairly well, but they didn't stick with it or the timing of play calls was off IMO

GB @CHI, FOX, GB QB Rodgers looks a bit rusty, CHI QB Cutler doesn't look much better and again GB w/Rodgers starting has CHI 'number' as they gained the win, with 'fortune favoring the bold and brave'. GB went for it on 4th downs several times during the game and changed their fortune.

DEN @OAK, CBS, didn't watch, but I did catch the end of the KC @SD game, which they must have switched over due to a boring game w/Manning & Co. KC QB Daniels not bad, but what's amazing is that the majority of KC backups are playing and they could've won this game vs SD. I don't think SD will be as fortunate @CIN next week

PHI @DAL, SNF, flex'd game, PHI O just makes it tough on an opponents D, DAL QB Orton played about as expected, it's TE Witten and RB Murray who had mental miscues, that cost DAL on drives

End of season results: 2 games below .500 ATS, 4 games above .500 for totals. Not bad this season, considering the early season trials (some teams showed great promise, but early wins weren't there [CAR] and others were just an early season mirage [HOU]) and selling home, moving into new place from weeks 8 thru 14 or so, losing all that time to watch games really made a difference. I still am 'settling in' and just finding the time to update football games and such, well... I'm at times a day or two behind the curve...

2013 - week 17 - Results

Friday, December 27, 2013

I like this at MMQB


What I noticed were the stats, far superior to any I've seen on any other site. I wonder if they reveal these stats every week. In particular I really noticed the DL/DE stats.

I also like the weekly team ranking of the D's and the bottom 10 and top 10, made me rethink my picks, I did watch a few w/game rewind, but due to xmas. I spent far less time going over games.

I picked out things like DAL won despite DAL D being ranked 28th vs WAS last week. DET D had a good week vs NYG, so it's really on their O for the loss. PIT gets to play CLE this week, perhaps another high scoring game?

I also noticed the weather for the weekend, I may need to change a few games to UNDER due to expected rain (@NYG, @PIT, @NE, and maybe @CIN), snow (@CHI)

Thursday, December 26, 2013

2013 - week 17 - picks

Playoff positions up for grabs w/a couple of elimination games, PHI @DAL, GB @CHI
KC seems to be the only team w/starters that may be rested for week 17

12/29 1:00 PM
301 CAR -6½ *UNDER
302 ATL 46 *

CAR won wk9 34-10
Taking a chance w/the points, CAR D is formidable, but their O may sputter w/o WR Smith, the problem for ATL will be stopping run w/o DT Peters
CAR w/win wins NFC S and 1st rd bye
ATL ?emo? loss @SF
ATL TE Gonzales final home game

12/29 4:25 PM
303 GB -3 under
304 CHI 51½ *

CHI won wk9 27-20
GB LB Mathews OUT
GB RB Lacy ?OUT?
I can't give GB much hope w/o their star QB Rodgers. This is for the NFC North crown, looks like CHI is playoff bound.
12/26 update: GB QB Rodgers starts
even w/GB QB Rodgers back, GB D is still an issue

12/29 1:00 PM
305 HOU 44½ under?
306 TEN -7 ***

HOU won wk2 30-24
I don't think HOU will be as interested in this game as much as TEN will be, since TEN is 0-3 vs HOU (past 2 seasons), HOU does have their 0-12 streak SU, but this is a division game and I believe the split will occur for the series.
after bye TEN @home totals>56+pts
after bye HOU road totals=51,47,28
HOU D will give up at least 24pts, maybe as much as 31pts
TEN 2nd division game are lower scoring totals=36,36(both road)

12/29 1:00 PM
307 CLE 44 over?
308 PIT -7 *

PIT won wk12 27-11
PIT WR Sanders ?OUT?
PIT depth?
it's hard to envision CLE winning, PIT is just one of those teams that CLE does not have a good record 2-18 SU vs PIT, so though -7 is larger than the standard -3 at home, PIT should be favored by at least a TD, perhaps more

12/29 1:00 PM
309 WAS 46 *
310 NYG -3½ under

NYG won wk13 24-17
WAS LB Orakpo ?OUT?

12/29 1:00 PM
311 BAL 44½ under
312 CIN -6 *

BAL won wk10 20-17
this season if CIN leads or ties @half they have won game, if they are behind they have won only once SU
BAL is very similar to CIN if they are behind at half they have won only twice, if they are ahead or tied 6-2 SU

12/29 1:00 PM
313 JAC 45½ UNDER
314 IND -11½ *?

IND won wk4 37-3
I expect IND to win @home, w/losses @home to MIA and STL will IND cover?
Interestingly enough JAC is 4-0 ATS vs HOU and TEN, 0-1 vs IND

12/29 8:30 PM
315 PHI -6½ ****
316 DAL 52½ under?

DAL QB Orton starts
DAL WR Bryant back? OUT?
DAL won wk7 17-3
This is for the NFC East crown, DAL will need more than luck at home.

12/29 1:00 PM
317 NYJ 41 *
318 MIA -6½ over?

MIA snap count in question
MIA won wk13 23-3

12/29 1:00 PM
319 DET 52 *
320 MIN -3 *under

DET won wk1 34-24
MIN RB Peterson OUT
12/27 update: changed pick from MIN/Under to DET/Under

12/29 4:25 PM
321 BUF 47 under
322 NE -9½ *

NE won wk1 23-21
BUF coming off goosing MIA last weekend, NE is 19-1 vs BUF
Will NE cover?
NE does have incentive to win a first round bye

12/29 4:25 PM
323 TB 47 under
324 NO -12½ *

NO won wk2 16-14
NO SS Harper starts
Schiano has yet to win vs Payton, I want to believe in the split, but since the first game was at the start of the season, NO w/playoff incentives should win, will they cover?

12/29 4:25 PM
325 DEN -12 *
326 OAK 53 *under*

DEN won wk3 37-21
OAK QB Pryor starts
Two scores, will DEN cover? OAK D has had recent issues, so it's likely a high score for DEN O, but what about OAK O? Will OAK O score more than 14pts? DEN could score 40pts, but it's not likely. 
** DEN has won AFC West and either #1 or #2 seed **
DEN does have incentive to play home games thru playoffs.

12/29 4:25 PM
327 SF -1½ *UNDER
328 ARI 42½ *

SF won wk6 32-20
normally I'd go with split but SF needs to win to hold onto #5 seed and play either CHI or GB
12/27 update: changed pick from SF/UNDER to ARI/UNDER

12/29 4:25 PM
329 KC 45 *under
330 SD -9½ *

SD won wk12 41-38
SD seems to have KC's number having won the past 3 games. KC can't really improve playoff position, but KC had a bad loss last week. 
KC resting players? QB Smith? RB Charles?
Since this is a late game, if BAL and MIA lose in their early Sunday matchups SD will control their playoff destiny with a win.

12/29 4:25 PM
331 STL 43 **UNDER**
332 SEA -10½ *

SEA won wk8 14-9
Thought about taking pts, but SEA lost last weekend to division rival ARI. I don't believe they'll lose two in a row, though they may not cover the double digit spread. They should be up for this game and are 15-2 vs STL. SEA does have incentive to play home games thru playoffs.

Tuesday, December 24, 2013

2013 - week 16 - results

NO @CAR, FOX, it's raining, sometimes it's just drenching field and stadium, surprisingly at times NO is able to run the ball vs CAR D. CAR O plays well in spots, most of the time not so good, but when it counts with the game's outcome on the line CAR O grabs the win. It's not to be NO year, CAR has completed their ascension this year to be NFC S champs.

DEN @HOU, oh yeah the CBS game, just a bore, HOU has been cooked, their last great hurrah was vs NE in week 13 when they lost by 3, since then their appears to be gas in the tank. These past two weeks they've lost be 3 scores.

NE @BAL, surprisingly one sided game for the visitor, BAL is toast

CHI @PHI, SNF, PHI came out and just dominated, CHI had no real answer even with the return of LB Briggs.

Other games of note, I should have taken IND as this was a sandwich game for KC, (prior week[week 15] and after week [week 17] games are division games for KC), also w/DEN winning at HOU, (as expected) KC could not improve it's play off position.

With the recent retirement announcements of WAS LB Fletcher and JAC C Meester, I picked on their final home games. The well respected player angle did work ATS, but not SU as WAS lost to DAL and JAC lost to TEN. We'll see about next week as well.

All in all, I could've done better ATS, but I hesitated in taking IND and was surprised by NYJ, NYG, CIN and ATL. I did fairly well for totals, but again I think I could've done better. One other thing of note were the warm DEC games @WAS, @PHI, @NYJ, @BAL. These games began in the 60's degree range, highly unusual.

2013 - week 16 - results

Thursday, December 19, 2013

2013 - week 16 - picks

things of note on top - streaks, other notables
*** no numbers for PIT @GB *** awaiting update
12/20 update: numbers posted

NYJ L2Y finish season 0-3
now 0-1

NE W/L 17-2 SU in DEC

HOU 0-12 SU streak

Since 1996, TEAMs which need a December to remember

Team W-L Pct. 
DET 17-52 .246  L
CLE 16-44 .267 L
OAK 24-49 .329 L
DAL 28-41 .406 L
BUF 29-42 .408 L 

***DEC week 1 all lost SU***

Team W-L Pct.
DET 17-53 .243  L
CLE 16-44 .262 L
OAK 24-50 .324 L
DAL 28-42 .400 L
BUF 29-43 .403  W

***DEC week 2 ONLY BUF won, all others lost***

Team W-L Pct.
DET  17-54 .239 ?
CLE 16-45 .262 ?
OAK 24-51 .320 ?
DAL 28-43 .394 ?
BUF 30-43 .411 ?

***DEC week 3 ?***

GB 14-3-1 vs division SU
this week, NONE

'SEA hangover' teams the week after playing SEA 
4-8-1 SU, 5-8 ATS
this week, NYG

SEA @home 14-0 SU
this week, vs ARI

NFC East 13-24 SU vs non-division opponents
this week, CHI @PHI, NYG @DET

TEAMS w/10 days rest 
15-17 SU
13-19 ATS
* indicates lost ATS
** indicates won ATS
TEAMS w/10 days rest (10Dr)
this week, SD, DEN


12/22 1:00 PM
101 MIA -3 ***
102 BUF 43 under

BUF won wk7 23-21
game blacked out locally
BUF QB Lewis starts (won wk7, 1-2 as starter this yr)
BUF WR Johnson OUT
BUF WR Graham starts?

12/22 1:00 PM
103 NO 46 under
104 CAR -3 ***

NO won wk14 13-31
NO LT Armstead starts (rookie)
NO K ?
CAR DE Johnson appears to be playing hurt since coming off injury

12/22 1:00 PM
105 DAL -3 under
106 WAS 53 ***

DAL won wk6 16-31
WAS LB Fletcher last home game 
(99% will retire endorses HC Shananhan)

12/22 1:00 PM
107 TB 43 under
108 STL -5 ***

LY STL won 28-13 @TB
TB maybe vulnerable on ST due to WR Shepard OUT
STL run O to test TB run D
if TB O continues w/check downs throws on 3rd and long, STL should win easily

12/22 8:30 PM
109 CHI 56 over
110 PHI -3 *

12/22 1:00 PM
111 CLE 41 *?*
112 NYJ -2 *OVER*

CLE TE Jordan OUT?
initially w/CLE injuries, I really was thinking NYJ, but I watched game rewind of NYJ and on O, they don't have much of a passing game. They'll need to win w/run O and D as well as ST. I just don't think NYJ is good enough at the skill positions to win. CLE is vastly underestimated by media and play well w/QB Campbell. I expect NYJ 2ndary to have a tough time and their ST will have miscues along w/O to give CLE the game.

12/22 1:00 PM
113 IND 44 OVER
114 KC -6½ *

LY IND won 20-13 @KC
sandwich game for KC, take pts?

12/22 1:00 PM
115 MIN 49 *
116 CIN -7 over

12/22 1:00 PM
117 DEN -10½ ***
118 HOU 52½ over?

DEN 10Dr
HOU RB Johnson starts (rookie)
HOU QB Schaub starts

12/22 1:00 PM
119 TEN -5 **OVER**
120 JAC 45 ***

JAC won wk10 29-27
JAC C Meester last home game
(will retire at end of season)
TEN nickel Sensabaugh OUT

12/22 4:05 PM
121 ARI 45 under
122 SEA -10 *

ARI WR Fitzgerald OUT?
SEA won wk7 34-22

12/22 4:05 PM
123 NYG 50½ under
124 DET -9½ *

will DET cover?

12/22 4:25 PM
125 OAK 51½ OVER
126 SD -10 ***

OAK won wk5 17-27
SD 10Dr

12/22 4:25 PM
127 PIT 45 **?
128 GB -2½ OVER

PIT LB Woodley OUT

12/22 4:25 PM
129 NE 45 over
130 BAL -1½ *

BAL win out and div champs
LY BAL won 30-31 vs NE

12/23 8:40 PM
131 ATL 45 UNDER
132 SF -12½ ****

ATL LB Weatherspoon OUT?
It's tough to take the points.
ATL in hindsight should've kept DE Abraham and CB Grimes
they are both doing well w/their new teams (ARI and MIA) this season.
Such key personnel decisions have made the rest of ATL personnel decisions questionable at best. Horrible at worst.
Will this be a goose egg game for ATL O, SF D?

2013 - week 15 - results

Late breaking news of some significance or not??
CHI QB Cutler to start, I'm just to lazy to change pick to CLE, but I'm tempted.
HOU practice w/referees, back to the basics, nice to see, since penalties have killed HOU chances one to many times this season.

TNF, SD @DEN, DEN starts out w/a TD again, really nice, but they cool off until the end when they heat up again. Many will point to DEN D as the "faulty part", but SD D really came on in Q2 and Q3. SD w/their O play really well and ST doing a decent job (well except for fumble) won this game with a team effort. Note: I think we're seeing more hurdles than ever, possibly due to emphasis on tackling rules in NFL.
I really point to SD D as being a key part of the win as UNDER the total won the money. SD D forced DEN O to punt on every possession in Q2 and Q3. The AFC S showed the way to beat Manning and Co. and the name of the game is called "keep away". Run the ball, win ToP (Time of possession) and force Manning to march down the field, nothing deep.
DEN D gets burned again by a premier QB (prior Brady) a pattern? Their other loss is to IND w/QB Luck and to me Luck is that good as long as he has a WR that can catch the ball.
DEN ST also made key errors in Q2 and Q3, fielding the ball inside the 10 in Q2 (should've just let the ball go and take the chance it bounces into the endzone for a touchback) and the penalty on 4th down which gave the ball back to SD. SD O proceeded to eat up more time and finally punted at mid-field.

FOX, SEA @NYG, I barely glanced at this game, and I did not watch...

CBS, NE @MIA, really interesting, MIA pulls out the win, despite a ST snapping snafu to the holder, he appears to be not ready or expecting the snap. One thing interesting for NE during the game was moving LG Mankins to LT, but it was not to be their day as the home team got the split in their series w/MIA. MIA D in particular even after losing DT Soliai still played really well.

FOX, GB @DAL, I just kept this up in the background, but did lots of household things that needed to be done, another why watch this game? I did hear Aikman w/an interesting comment w/Romo having all the time in world as GB D can't get pressure, so a lot of Aikman misses go back to accuracy issues.
OH MY, a second half to add to the lore of GB and the dismantling of 'boys, what a stunner. Just poor play calling IMO. DAL should have run the ball more, eat clock and thus GB would never have the chance to complete the comeback, but DAL outsmarted themselves again.

On this Sunday, home dog MIN gets a nice upset of PHI (odd how PHI chose not to do traditional KO, instead they chose to squib it and thus starting drives field position was an early x-mas gift from PHI to MIN, the other noticeable oddity was PHI RB McCoy had only eight carries, just two a quarter or maybe once a drive) and it appears STL at home will do the same to NO (just like '11 season, history repeats itself).

SNF, CIN @PIT, ouch! PIT comes out on fire, hits CIN in the mouth and they wilt, PIT ST really took it to CIN ST and KO'd CIN P Huber as well. I had expected something a little closer, but CIN has the little bro' mentality or that's what the announcer said (I think or as best as I can recall, lol).

I'm a bit late posting results, just plain forgot to do so. One thing that I've noticed for this past weekend - the NFC East was 0-fer SU/ATS. I did ok, just above .500 ATS and a break even .500 for totals

2013 - week 15 - results

Wednesday, December 11, 2013

2013 - week 15 - picks

NYJ L2Y finish season 0-3

NE W/L 17-1 SU in DEC,

HOU 0-11 SU streak

Since 1996, TEAMs which need a December to remember

Team W-L Pct. 
DET 17-52 .246  L
CLE 16-44 .267 L
OAK 24-49 .329 L
DAL 28-41 .406 L
BUF 29-42 .408 L 

all lost SU last weekend, drop that percentage even more

GB 14-3-1 vs division SU
this week, NONE

'SEA hangover' teams the week after playing SEA 
3-8-1 SU, 4-8 ATS
this week, SF

SEA @home 14-0 SU
this week, NONE

NFC East 13-20 SU vs non-division opponents
this week, WAS @ATL, SEA @NYG, PHI @MIN, GB @DAL

TEAMS w/10 days rest 
15-15 SU
13-17 ATS
* indicates lost ATS
** indicates won ATS
TEAMS w/10 days rest (10Dr)
this week, HOU, JAC

12/15 1:00 PM
305 WAS 51 over?
306 ATL -6 **

ATL has a running game, D is decent, O is suspect
ST advantage ATL?
ATL OC Koetter interviewing for college HC
WAS QB Cousins starts
ATL should win, but will they cover?

12/15 1:00 PM
307 SF -5½ *
308 TB 41 under

12/15 4:25 PM
309 ARI -3 ***
310 TEN 41½ over

ARI FS Mathieu OUT
TEN QB Fitzpatrick has accuracy issues w/o TE Walker in the line up. 
TEN D still plays fairly well, it's their O that will sputter for a half and that means they will likely lose this home game vs an ARI D that is playing really well and an O that can move the ball. 
TEN ST returns are better, but coverage is lacking, advantage ARI
This game means more to ARI than to TEN for the playoffs, but TEN coaching staff and players have been put on 'notice', they'll be playing to keep their jobs this weekend.

12/15 4:25 PM
311 NO -5½ *
312 STL 48 under

12/15 1:00 PM
313 SEA -7 *
314 NYG 41 over


12/15 1:00 PM
315 CHI 43 *
316 CLE -2½ ****OVER****

CLE QB Campbell starts, the team believes

12/15 1:00 PM
317 HOU 45½ **
318 IND -6 under

HOU 10Dr
IND won wk09 27-24

12/15 1:00 PM
319 BUF -1½ over
320 JAC 43 ***

BUF last week post game led by players
JAC 10Dr

12/15 1:00 PM
321 NE -2½ over
322 MIA 45½ *

NE TE Gronkowski OUT
NE won wk8 27-17

12/15 1:00 PM
323 PHI -4½ *
324 MIN 51½ UNDER?

MIN RB Peterson OUT

12/15 4:05 PM
325 NYJ 41 UNDER
326 CAR -10½ *

NYJ CB Cromartie OUT?
CAR should win, will they cover?
12/15 4:05 PM
327 KC -4 *
328 OAK 41 OVER

12/15 4:25 PM
329 GB 48½ under
330 DAL -7 *

GB a FG team, until TDs are more prevalent and QB Flynn acquires a much better touch in RZ

12/15 8:30 PM
331 CIN -3 *OVER*
332 PIT 40½ *

CIN won wk2 20-10

12/16 8:40 PM
333 BAL 48½ *
334 DET -6 over

DET RB Bush D2D(Day-to-Day)

2013 - week 15 - Thursday - picks

I'm thinking.... SD/Over combo
12/12 8:25 PM
301 SD 55 *
302 DEN -10½ over

DEN won wk 10 28-20

2013 - week 15 - GRIDs

QB Rating:

2013 - week 15 - GRID - QB rating
for clarity
NE 8.6, MIA 8.4
CIN 11, PIT 10
BAL -3.8, CLE -2.1
SD 7.1, KC 5.9

Team scoring efficiency:

2013 - week 15 - GRID - efficiency

The differences:
AFC North, PIT is ahead of BAL w/QB rating, but behind with scoring efficiency
AFC South, IND and TEN have flip flopped positions as well
NFC North, CHI is tops in their division w/QB rating and is 2nd w/scoring efficiency, DET is 2nd w/QB rating and is 3rd w/scoring efficiency, GB is 3rd w/QB rating and is 1st w/scoring efficiency.

So for the playoffs the NFC North is likely to be represented by CHI. I'm expecting a DET collapse and GB just doesn't have enough w/o QB Rogers.

IND who has backdoored (did not win their game) their way into their division championship this past weekend will be the easiest of home field opponents for either MIA, BAL or KC.

BAL is in the drivers seat for #6 seed in the AFC, but MIA has been playing well these past three games and winning in the cold (sub freezing and snow) at PIT last weekend, really puts them on my radar. BAL was a bit lucky last weekend vs MIN, maybe their luck holds thru DEC, if not MIA is in.

Again these are cumulative totals for the season and are derived from the O performance subtracted from the D performance to arrive at a number that seems to represent the strength of the team.

For QB rating, I take each games QB rating and subtract one from the other to arrive at a number. If two or more QBs played during the game I take their total number. You'll find the QB ratings in the GameBook.pdf file available for download after each game at nfl.com

For Team Scoring Efficiency, I take each drive/possession and it's outcome and divide the scoring drives from the total number of possessions. I do take into account punt returns and kick returns for TD as scoring drives/possessions. From my point of view each possession by a team is an opportunity to score.
I then take O possession/performance and subtract from D possession/performance to arrive at a number that seems to indicate the strength of that team. The higher the positive percentage the better the team is at scoring and winning games.

Perhaps later on I may institute a more recent indicator covering the past 4 weeks, rather than just a season long cumulative total which can be deceptive while reviewing a teams recent performance.

Monday, December 09, 2013

2013 - week 14 results

Game Notes:
TNF, HOU @JAC, JAC gets a 2TD lead and HOU really looks they're just playing out the string. Even when late in Q4 HOU has the ball inside the 20 and they go for it on 4th down, I thought they were highly predictable. HOU Schaub subs for Keenum, but the end result of the game is the same... JAC gets the series sweep, let me say that again... JAC gets the series sweep   HOU is in the tank and can't come out...
should've taken the home dog, though I was correct on the total.
UPDATE: HOU HC Kubiak fired

CBS, IND @CIN, cold, no wind, no snow - IND O seems to have issues, CIN O marches down and scores a TD, not really effective on 1st down, but 2nd & 3rd downs moving the chains. CIN D is controlling LoS. IND WR's drops are a continuing issue since their WR #1 was injured and OFY. IND will need luck to win this game.

FOX, DET @PHI, after trading punts in a "snow dump", DET RB Bell fumbles on PHI LB Thornton hit/tackle. Advantage PHI? though PHI ST seems to be having issues returning and punting ball. DET gets the ball again and gets long gains on nice throws/catches. DET fumbles again, this time inside the 20, ouch!
PHI punts again, DET D is dominating and get an int, DET O moving the ball and finally get the TD and a 2pt PAT, PHI secondary can be picked on and DET looks like they'll win. End of Q2 and PHI goes for it on 4th and 7 to go inside of the 20, just kick the FG, it can be done! Really questionable play calling IMO. DET leads 8-0 @half.

Looks like snow for PHI, WAS, BAL none @NE, @NYJ, @CIN. Scoreboard watching and KC is dominating, NYJ @home is way ahead of OAK, TB @home has a 2TD lead on BUF and highly surprising is CLE 6-0 lead @NE, and not so surprising is ATL 21-10 lead @GB (I should have stuck w/initial thoughts on taking ATL, also of note 1st game to half time, indicates running game), MIA has a FG lead @PIT and reports out of MIN @BAL have MIN RB Peterson inj'd in Q2.

So I'm cooking from the half and when I return it's Q4 DET @PHI and PHI RB McCoy rips along TD run and PHI goes for a 2pt PAT. Scoreboard check and MIN is leading BAL 12-7, GB now leads 22-21 vs ATL, PIT leads 28-24 and CLE continues to lead NE 19-11. My fish soup taste really good in this cold weather here in Vegas. 4th and goal for PHI, DET appears to have an advantage w/the cleared snow for the goal line identification, but PHI OL get great push and out muscle DET formidable front 7 and get the TD, but miss the 2pt PAT conversion. DET drives down to about the 20yd line and the next play QB Stafford fumbles the snap and PHI recovers... should I say it? same ol' Lions...

Noted: Q3 injury update NE TE Gronk out of game. And wouldn't you know it NE gets another comeback win @home vs CLE

FOX, SEA @SF, TD's vs FG's that's really the difference in the 1st half as SEA scores TD's and SF scores FG's. This may seem to simplistic, but that's what I see. Update: SF gets the win, they are a bit more efficient scoring, but there seems to be a bit of home cooking by the refs....

SNOW games:
MIN @BAL 26-29
MIA @PIT 34-28
DET @PHI 20-34
KC @WAS 45-10

Noticed the totals for all SNOW games were greater than 53 pts, thats >53pts or 53+pts, just betting the overs would be 3-0-1(W-L-P), the push comes with DET @PHI game, still winning 6.5 to 1 odds (6.5:1) is nice ($10 wins $65). In this case a 4 pick of OVER the totals would be reduced to a 3 pick payout, since a push (tie) returns the original bet. FYI a 4 pick normally pays around 12:1 or 11:1, I've seen more 13:1 and less 10:1.
acckkk.... update, ATL @GB 21-22 also should be a SNOW game, but it didn't go over the total, maybe because it was too cold, with a wind chill of -1 and game start temperature of 9 degrees, with winds gusting up to 15mph. An interesting view of the subterrain for the 'frozen tundra' @Lambeau Field. I think GB lost their advantage once, this field warming technology has been in place for several years now (I think).

MIA a warm weather team bucked the trend and won in below freezing temperatures (wind chill 16 degrees, temperature 25 degrees, snow on field and snowed during the game). I picked MIA on two factors, they had been playing better these past few games and PIT had an OL shuffle issue for this game.

Though the dome teams (HOU, MIN, DET, IND, ATL) lost SU at outdoor games, MIN and ATL won ATS. Interestingly enough dome teams at home won in convincing fashion this weekend (ARI and NO).
Only KC and MIA were road warriors this weekend, getting wins at WAS and at PIT.

Weekend results:

Yeah, I did much better this week than the past few weeks of not watching and 'moving house'.
The MIN/BAL game is highly interesting and a bit like an AFL game in that the final minute of the second half had a lot of scoring. It's as if the coaching staffs were holding back their best plays until the final minutes of the game and thus 6TD's are scored in Q4 thus producing a winner for OVER the total and MIN stayed within a FG for most of the game while on the road. MIN did this even with the loss of RB Peterson in Q3, this game turned out to be far closer than expected for me.

CLE @NE, I had seen an earlier 'blurb' where CLE previous game vs NE ended up with another ATS win for them. So CLE is now 2-0 ATS vs NE in the past ?8? years. CLE should've won the game. I could've changed my original pick with the announcement of CLE QB Campbell starting, but I decided to just leave my pick alone.

ATL @GB, I had forgotten that the frozen tundra of Lambeau Field is no longer frozen since the advent of field warming technology. You could actually see steam rising from the ground via the game video and their was a short mention of the field during the broadcast. ATL came out running the ball and controlled the first half defensively. In the 2nd half, GB was the better team and got the win. GB D held ATL scoreless and GB O scored three times (2 FG's 1TD). ATL had a chance but couldn't put up any score in the second half, they really miss John Abraham.
2013 - week 14 - results

Saturday, December 07, 2013

2013 - week 14 - picks

Looks like a cold weather weekend, so running teams should be favored and dominate DL as well. I'm not really confident on my picks. I already have been toasted on TNF, so I need to watch more games, (if settling into my new place really lets me).

NE W/L 16-1 SU in DEC

HOU 0-10 SU streak, now 0-11

Since 1996, TEAMs which need a December to remember

Team W-L Pct. 
DET 17-52 .246 
CLE 16-44 .267
OAK 24-49 .329
DAL 28-41 .406
BUF 29-42 .408 

GB 14-3-1 vs division SU
this week, NONE

'SEA hangover' teams the week after playing SEA 2-8-1 SU, 3-8 ATS
this week, NO

SEA @home 14-0 SU
this week, NONE

NFC East 12-17 SU vs non-division opponents
this week, KC @WAS, DAL @CHI, DET @PHI, NYG @SD

TEAMS w/10 days rest 13-11 ATS/SU
* indicates lost ATS
** indicates won ATS
TEAMS w/10 days rest (10Dr)
this week, GB, DET, OAK, DAK, PIT, BAL

12/08 1:00 PM
131 KC -3 **
132 WAS 45 over

WAS ref's err'd last week vs NYG (1st down 'flub')
WAS O is an issue, WAS D not much better
WC 22

12/08 1:00 PM
133 MIN 43 *under
134 BAL -6½ *

MIN may need double digits to cover, total seems to be the better bet
MIN QB Cassel starts?
WC 20

12/08 1:00 PM
135 CLE 44½ UNDER
136 NE -11½ ***

CLE O woe is me, alas says the CLE D
CLE QB Campbell starts
shouldn't this be NE -21½?
WC 19

12/08 1:00 PM
137 OAK 40½ *
138 NYJ -3 over

NYJ O has stagnated due to play calling
OAK has a real chance to win this game
WC 29
OAK 10Dr

12/08 1:00 PM
139 IND 43½ under
140 CIN -6 ***

IND inj's to OL, DL and ST
CIN D getting healthier
WC 20

12/08 8:30 PM
141 CAR 46 UNDER
142 NO -3½ *

1st game of division series
flexed to SNF, should be an interesting game

12/08 1:00 PM
143 DET 54 UNDER
144 PHI -2½ ***

DET on the road will need to get really lucky or disciplined to win
WC 22
DET 10Dr

12/08 1:00 PM
145 MIA 40½ ***
146 PIT -3 under

WC 19, normally I'd take the 'cold weather' team, but PIT has OL issues and MIA has a dominant DL
PIT 10Dr

12/08 1:00 PM
147 BUF 43 *over
148 TB -2½ *

BUF should've won last week @home '@Toronto', this should be officially a no play(bet) game. I don't have a good feel for either team

12/08 4:05 PM
149 TEN 50 *
150 DEN -12 over

TEN says refs erred 3x last week @IND
WC 5 degree

12/08 4:25 PM
151 STL 41½ under
152 ARI -6½ **

STL C Barnes (1st start)
ARI feels as if they were robbed last week @PHI by refs
STL won wk1 27-24
ARI has not won a division game L2Y

12/08 4:25 PM
153 NYG 47½ over
154 SD -3 *

12/08 4:25 PM
155 SEA 41½ under
156 SF -3 *

SEA won wk2 29-3

12/08 1:00 PM
157 ATL 45 *over 
158 GB -3 *

wanting to choose ATL, but this is @GB, WC 17 degrees, the better running game should win
GB 10Dr

12/09 8:40 PM
159 DAL 48 over
160 CHI -1 *

DAL has yet to string 3 wins in a row this season
CHI has yet to lose 3 in a row this season
DAL 10Dr

Thursday, December 05, 2013

2013 - week 14 - Thursday picks

this is not a game most people would watch, HOU is on a long losing streak and lost @home to JAC in week12, so motivation should be on HOU side, yes even on the road, the series split is more likely to occur than the series sweep
12/05 8:25 PM
101 HOU -3 **
102 JAC 43½ OVER 

JAC won week12 13-6

Tuesday, December 03, 2013

2013 - GRIDs - week 14

2013 GRID week 14 efficiency
Compared to week 11 GRIDs,

AFC East
 NE -2%, MIA +3%, BUF +3%, NYJ -7%

AFC North
 CIN +2%, BAL +5%, PIT +1%, CLE -2%

AFC South
 IND -3%, TEN -4%, HOU +1%, JAC +6%

AFC West
 DEN -1%, SD -1%, KC -6%, OAK 0%

NFC East
 PHI +2%, DAL +1%, NYG +4%, WAS -3%

NFC North
 GB -8%, DET +3%, CHI -3%, MIN +3%

NFC South
 CAR -1%, NO -7%, TB +1%, ATL +3%

NFC West
 SEA +2%, SF 0%, ARI +6%, STL -1%

The highlighted pink indicates the biggest drop this past weekend (NO and GB). No team made an appreciable jump beyond 3%, though MIA, JAC and DET did record a 3% increase from last weekend

2013 GRID week 14 QB rtg

KC, DAL and DET has dropped into mid tier (12-22 ranking),
MIA,PIT, and CHI has risen into top tier (1-11 ranking)
TB has risen into mid tier (12-22 ranking)
HOU has dropped into bottom tier (23-32 ranking)
note: I noticed I should've had BAL in 2nd tier for week 11 GRID, sigh...

All this movement seems to coincide w/each teams winning SU this past month. We'll see who can keep it up for the last month of the regular season.

2013 - week 13 - results

TNF, GB @DET, watched from mid Q2 to half, DET D playing really well, DET O getting stymied at times, but DET doesn't look like they'll lose at home. Wish I had checked if this was the 2nd games of division series, I would have taken DET for series split, but too late and I was really tired, night prior to game and instinct was off for side, and ok for totals

TNF, OAK @DAL, every preseason, OAK and DAL would hold a joint practice, so their is a familiarity. OAK also has a tendency to be a 1st half team, this held true for thus game. DAL did not get the cover and the 1st half was over the total (so did the whole game)

TNF, PIT @BAL, should've taken dog/pts due to intensity of rivalry, the series split did occur, it's just that BAL did not cover. At the end of the 1st half (10-0 BAL) you'd have thought the total would stay under for the game, but both of these teams are looking like 2nd half teams and the over occurred.

TNF, home teams won SU, but only DET covered ATS, totals ended up 2-0-1. It'll be tough for GB to get a playoff spot with either CAR or NO in one spot and likely either SF or ARI in the other wildcard spot. DET controls it's fate for the rest of the season. DAL is also in a tough spot for a playoff berth, but not as tough as GB. In the AFC, I wonder if PIT can make it into playoffs, it's likely KC will be in one spot and the other may go to SD or BAL. If CIN falls back to the pack, PIT will still have a tough time to gain a playoff berth. TEN may have a better chance than PIT due to schedule, but the 6th spot is up in the air a bit more than in the NFC.

NE @HOU, turns out to be an interesting game as HOU puts up a fight, but it's not enough as NE proves to be too much.

DEN @KC, KC has a good first half, DEN has a better second half and gets the sweep

SNF, NYG @WAS, NYG D gets in gear after Q1 and secures the win.

It was SWEEPS weekend as CAR swept TB, IND swept TEN and DEN swept KC.

As you can see below from the results, since I did watch any games for two weeks, it really does affect picks, well at least for me....

2013 - week 13 - results

Saturday, November 30, 2013

2013 - week 13 - picks

GB 14-2-1 vs division SU
this week, DET

NFC East 10-17 SU vs non-division opponents
this week, OAK @DAL, ARI @PHI, 

TEAMS w/10 days rest 12-10 ATS/SU
* indicates lost ATS
** indicates won ATS
TEAMS w/10 days rest (10Dr)
this week, NO, ATL

Teams Coming Off Bye 12-10 SU  
Teams Coming Off Bye 10-12 ATS
* = loss ATS
Teams Coming Off Bye  (CoB) 
this week, BUF,CIN,PHI,SEA

12/01 1:00 PM
425 TEN 44½ ***
426 IND -4½ over

IND won wk11 30-27

12/01 4:25 PM
427 DEN -4 under
428 KC 49½ *

DEN won wk11 27-17

12/01 1:00 PM
429 JAC 40½ *
430 CLE -7 under

CLE QB Weeden starts

12/01 1:00 PM
431 TB 41½ *
432 CAR -8½ OVER

CAR won wk08 31-13

12/01 1:00 PM
433 CHI 49 under
434 MIN -1 **

CHI QB McCown starts
CHI won wk02 31-30

12/01 1:00 PM
435 ARI 48½ ***
436 PHI -3½ over


12/01 1:00 PM
437 MIA 38½ *
438 NYJ -1½ under

1st game of division series

12/01 4:05 PM
439 ATL 46 under
440 BUF -3½ ****

how could anyone look at ATL?
ATL 10Dr

12/01 4:05 PM
441 STL 42 *
442 SF -9 over

SF won wk04 35-11

12/01 1:00 PM
443 NE -7½ ***
444 HOU 47 under
HOU QB Keenum starts

12/01 4:25 PM
445 CIN 48½ OVER
446 SD -1½ *


12/01 8:30 PM
447 NYG -1½ *
448 WAS 46½ OVER

1st game of division series

12/02 8:40 PM
449 NO 47 UNDER
450 SEA -5½ *

NO 10Dr

Thursday, November 28, 2013

2013 - week 13 - Thursday picks

Here's my thoughts for what it's worth...

11/28 12:30 PM
303 GB 50 *
304 DET -6 over

GB QB Flynn starts?
Hopefully at GB, the 'Tolzien' experiment is over and done with. GB really needs the win after last weekends tie at home vs MIN. DET had a very surprising home loss, at this point of the season I wouldn't expect to see home losses, so this is as good a sign as any to doubt DET as a playoff ready team.

11/28 4:30 PM
305 OAK 46½ *
306 DAL -9½ over

OAK QB McGloin starts
After 3 straight games at home OAK takes to the road, where OAK has played much better than expected. I don't expect OAK to win, I just don't expect DAL to cover.

11/28 8:30 PM
307 PIT 40½ over
308 BAL -3 *

WC 22
BAL with a win will split series for the season and though PIT has been playing better as of late, so has BAL.

2013 - week 12 - results

It really shows when I spend time away from watching football, these past 10+ days I've spent changing address'. Moving is such a time consumer especially when you're doing the majority of the labor.

I missed doing the weekly GRID as well as reviewing interesting games. This weekend I watch zero (0) games due to the move. I suspect I won't be doing so well this weekend as well as we're trying to settle in as well as celebrate this Thanksgiving weekend.

Surprisingly I did well with totals, picking mostly unders and not so surprisingly I sucked ATS. It's going to be tough to get back to .500 ATS

2013 - week 12 - results

Friday, November 22, 2013

2013 - week 12 - picks

I'm a bit late posting Thursday Night Football picks as well as the rest of the weekend, but I'm still moving from old place to new place. So I thought I'd at least post my early thoughts from Sunday. You may notice the numbers are a bit out dated, though I have checked any online site for updated number. It's a time issue as always. I don't even know who won TNF game last night. Here's my early thoughts....

GB 14-2 vs division SU
this week, MIN

'SEA hangover' teams the week after playing SEA 2-8 SU/ATS
this week, MIN

NFC East 10-16 SU vs non-division opponents
this week, SF @WAS

TEAMS w/10 days rest 11-9 ATS/SU
* indicates lost ATS
** indicates won ATS
TEAMS w/10 days rest (10Dr)
this week, IND, TEN

Teams Going into Bye 18-12 SU
Teams Going into Bye 17-13 ATS
* indicates lost ATS
Teams Going into Bye (GiB) 
this week, NONE

Teams Coming Off Bye 10-10 SU  
Teams Coming Off Bye 8-12 ATS
* = loss ATS
Teams Coming Off Bye  (CoB) 
this week, DAL, STL

11/21 8:25 PM
107 NO -8 ***
108 ATL 53 under

series split favors ATL

11/24 1:00 PM
209 TB 48½ under
210 DET -9½ ***

11/24 1:00 PM
211 JAC 43½ under
212 HOU -10 **??

HOU QB Keenum starts?
HOU should win, will they cover?

11/24 1:00 PM
213 MIN 44 under
214 GB -5½ **

GB QB Tolzien starts (preseason game 2)
series split favors MIN

11/24 1:00 PM
215 SD 41½ under
216 KC -5 *

11/24 1:00 PM
217 CAR -4 ***
218 MIA 41½ UNDER

CAR DE Johnson out?
Last week, IMO, MIA was really lucky w/referees, they'll need more than luck this week

11/24 1:00 PM
219 PIT 41 under
220 CLE -2 **

I really like PIT ST punting, a field position changer

11/24 1:00 PM
221 CHI 46½ under
222 STL -1½ *

CHI QB McCown starts (preseason game 4, [started week 9,10,11 won,loss,won ])
STL QB Clemen starts (preseason game 4, [started week 8,9,10 loss,loss,won ])
Who do you believe in?

11/24 1:00 PM
223 NYJ 40½ under
224 BAL -4 **

11/24 4:05 PM
225 TEN 41½ **
226 OAK -1 under

TEN 10Dr
GB QB McGloin starts (preseason game 2)

11/24 4:05 PM
227 IND 45 **
228 ARI -1½ over

IND 10Dr

11/24 4:25 PM
229 DAL 47 over
230 NYG -2½ **

series split favors NYG

11/24 8:30 PM
231 DEN -2½ OVER
232 NE 56 **

DEN FS Moore out

11/25 8:40 PM
233 SF -5 **
234 WAS 47½ under

Hopefully I'll be at .500 ATS and for totals as well. I'll probably be late as well for TNF again for next week as I still have quite a bit of moving as well as settling in at new place.

Tuesday, November 19, 2013

2013 - week 11 - results

TNF, IND @TEN, and again IND plays better on the road than at home. I ended up w/a push for the game and it went far over instead of under the total. TEN came out dominating w/a really good run O and led 14-0. IND made the right move w/subbing in RB Brown and officially RB Richardson should be labelled a bust (or at least for this season). It seems to me the refs were a bit in favor of IND w/a phantom 1st down on a IND QB Luck sneak. TEN also went away from running w/RB CJ which was curious IMO. IND seems to take control from Q2 even though TEN led 17-6. Q3 and the dam breaks as IND scores 17pts and TEN has no real answers. TEN needs to learn to continue to play keep away from a smart QB like Luck. I lay this on the lap of TEN OC far more than their DC. ST could get better, but all in all IND got another win after a loss. Impressive streak from last year.

I had a headache all Sunday, here's what I recall:
WAS @PHI, not much of a game, PHI dominates and TV broadcasters cut over to DET @PIT, WAS makes a Q4 comeback, but it's the too little too late variety

DET @PIT, the PIT ST punter had an outstanding game, gaining 10 yards on the opposition and sure enough, PIT gets the win and DET seems to have issues on the road

SD @MIA, officiating in Q1 was highly questionable and favoring MIA IMO. Too much for SD to overcome with their own issues. MIA gets the much needed win

SNF, KC @DEN, DEN gets an early 10-0 lead and never looks back. KC D plays as well as you can vs Peyton and ST does it's job. It's KC O that suffered, WRs had too many drops and just weren't in sync w/QB. KC OL had issues at times as well.

The surprise of the weekend is the road win by OAK, totally unexpected w/a rookie QB starting his first game. HOU unexpectingly also subs QB Schaub in Q4 for QB Keenum, really odd move by coaching staff IMO and OAK D did really well as well as run O and pass O.

I should've gone with the division series split for NYJ/BUF and CLE/CIN.

As for the weekend a sub .500 ATS and above .500 for totals

I also noticed all teams going into a bye week won and all teams coming off a bye lost. Teams w/10 days rest also lost as well.

2013 - week 11 - results

Wednesday, November 13, 2013

2013 - week 11 - picks

GB 14-2 vs division SU
this week, NONE

'SEA hangover' teams the week after playing SEA 2-7 SU/ATS
this week, ATL

NFC East 9-16 SU vs non-division opponents
this week, GB @NYG

TEAMS w/10 days rest 11-7 ATS/SU
* indicates lost ATS
** indicates won ATS
TEAMS w/10 days rest (10Dr)
this week, WAS MIN

Teams Going into Bye 14-12 SU
Teams Going into Bye 13-13 ATS
* indicates lost ATS
Teams Going into Bye (GiB) 
this week, BUF CIN PHI SEA

Teams Coming Off Bye 10-6 SU  
Teams Coming Off Bye 8-8 ATS
* = loss ATS
Teams Coming Off Bye  (CoB) 
this week, CLE KC NE NYJ

11/17 1:00 PM
403 ATL -1½ under
404 TB 43½ *

Why is ATL favored?

11/17 1:00 PM
405 NYJ 41 ***
406 BUF -1½ *under?

NYJ TE Winslow starts? WR Holmes starts?
NYJ won 1st game 27-20
NYJ alternating WLW? or is it even number(Loss) odd number(win) week
NYJ 1-3 SU on the road
BUF QB Manuel starts (2nd game after return from injury)
BUF also had a LWL? pattern w/QB Manuel
Normally for division games I'll go with the split series, as the majority of teams do so each season, but BUF is starting their rookie QB, he did not look sharp last week. So BUF needs to rely on run O, but in recent weeks, their run O has a gained yardage and looks to be just above average, but the playcalling and timing of plays w/OL seems to be off. NYJ seems to be on an ascent and BUF on the descent. NYJ should sweeps series.

11/17 1:00 PM
407 DET -2½ *
408 PIT 47½ *over*

It's another coming of age game for DET (if they win) and scratch/claw their way up game for PIT.

11/17 1:00 PM
409 WAS 52½ OVER
410 PHI -3½ **

WAS 10Dr

11/17 4:05 PM
411 SD -1½ *
412 MIA 45½ *over?

So as the drama continues on in MIA, will SD come in and get the win?

11/17 1:00 PM
413 BAL 46½ *?
414 CHI -3 under?

CHI QB McCown starts (preseason game 2, [started week 9, won ])
CHI CB Tillman OUT
CHI injuries continue to mount as each week goes by. BAL D is playing really well, it's their O and ST that are having issues. I'm unsure if the strength of CHI is their O, their D or ST.
If BAL O and ST just cut down on TOs they should win the game. Both are coming off division games. CHI is in the playoff hunt, BAL is on the outside looking in, motivation favors BAL.
11/16 update: weather, storms, winds: looks like under the total is better.
11/16 update: changed pick from BAL/OVER to BAL/UNDER

11/17 1:00 PM
415 CLE 42 *
416 CIN -6 under

Week 4 CLE won 17-6 vs CIN
CLE QB Campbell starts (preseason game 3)
CIN O is predictable and their D is piling up w/injuries. CLE O is on the upswing and their D is the heart of their team. It's hard to pick CIN at home in a division game for the series split. I normally would pick the split, but this looks like a sweep.

11/17 1:00 PM
417 OAK 42½ over?
418 HOU -7 ****

OAK loses close on the road except to division foes this season
HOU should win will they cover?
HOU maybe a better first half bet than a whole game bet
HOU QB Keenum starts (preseason game 4, so far 0-fer)
HOU O has played the two best Ds in the past 3 games (KC, ARI) and had an odd game w/a loss at home to IND (HOU HC Kubiak collapse @half). I think HOU will blow out OAK in the first half, it's the second half that I don't know what to expect.

11/17 1:00 PM
419 ARI -6½ ****
420 JAC 41 under?

JAC last week 1st win of the year and an improbable win, you get lucky every once in a while, I think JAC luck runs out this week

11/17 8:30 PM
421 KC 50 *
422 DEN -8½ under

note: KC HC Reid 13-1 SU CoB

11/17 4:25 PM
423 MIN 45½ *
424 SEA -13½ ***OVER***

MIN WR Simpson out?
MIN 10Dr
SEA CB Browner out
SEA QB Wilson 10-0 @home
LY MIN lost @SEA 20-30
I don't expect SEA to lose, I just wonder can they cover? The total is a much better bet

11/17 4:25 PM
425 SF 47½ under
426 NO -3 *

SF TE Davis out?
strength vs strength, SF D vs NO O
NO D just needs to stop SF run O and they'll win

11/17 4:25 PM
427 GB 42½ under
428 NYG -6½ ****

GB QB Tolzien starts? (preseason game 1)
GB D really poor tackling last week
GB OL shuffle? C? RG? RT?
NYG 2nd game in a row @home
NYG D playing well, ST so-so and O really needs to take care of ball
LW OAK @NYG, NYG ST and O 'gifted' 17pts for OAK. OAK O 'only' scored 3pts

11/18 8:40 PM
429 NE 46 under
430 CAR -2½ *

NE 7-0 streak in NOV
Last week CAR big road win, now the lights of MNF..

Tuesday, November 12, 2013

2013 - week 11 - Thursday picks

11/14 8:25 PM
309 IND -3 under
310 TEN 42½ ***

TEN QB Fitzpatrick starts (preseason game 3, [started weeks 5, 6])
IND run O?
Last week STL D lays down the blue print on how to beat IND
or maybe it should be w/o their best WR's IND O looks lost at times

2013 - week 11 - GRIDs - Efficiency and QB rating differential

This week I decided to add both GRID as I've noticed that they both have revelance these past few weeks.

2013 - week 11 - GRID - Efficiency

2013 - week 11 - GRID - QB rating differential

Here's what I've noticed in my tracking of predicting wins SU. The QB Rating Differential seems to be better at a rate of about 2-4 games per week. For the majority of picks they will agree, but where they differ is where QB Rating Differential shines as it continues to out pick the Efficiency GRID.

The Efficiency GRID has captured the demise of ATL better in my opinion. Though they are both accumulative of the season, the Efficiency GRID has shown a greater decline and thus ranks ATL below TB, instead of above TB as the QB Rating Differential has done.

You'll also note the great rise that PHI and is now considerably ahead of DAL in the QBR GRID vs the equal billing that the Efficiency GRID has them at the moment.

IND has also taken a great fall w/o their #1 WR Wayne in the QB rating differential.

In general those teams that have a good QB are better to follow w/QB Rating Differential and those teams that depend on their D, their ST and a run game are much more predictable with the Efficiency GRID. The problem lies when you have to choose a team in a game and they are more predictable w/a different GRID. It then becomes a toss of the coin, or if their is a distraction (drama), I'll use that as a deciding factor. I've even gone back to the basics of too many injuries to overcome for a team to use as a deciding factor.

Below is a simple text output of predicting outcomes for week 11 games:

QBRating Differential
road roadO-D home homeO-D predict DIF
IND 7.975 TEN 13.96 TEN 5.985 ?
NYJ -32.525 BUF 2.68 BUF 35.205
ATL -23.425 TB -22.6 TB 0.825
DET 12.88 PIT 7.05 DET -5.83 ?
WAS -20.98 PHI -26.6 WAS -5.62
SD 2.28 MIA 15.225 MIA 12.945 ?
BAL -25.36 CHI 13.18 CHI 38.54
CLE -17.8 CIN 38.25 CIN 56.05
OAK -27.8 HOU -4.275 HOU 23.525
ARI -16.575 JAC -49.575 ARI -33
KC 30.2 DEN 43.1 DEN 12.9
MIN -25.875 SEA 35.725 SEA 61.6
SF 12.125 NO 59.7 NO 47.575
GB -12.85 NYG -6.175 NYG 6.675 ?
NE -12.075 CAR 23.825 CAR 35.9

road RO-Deff home HO-Deff predict DIF
IND 17% TEN 2% IND -14.77% ?
NYJ -7% BUF -5% BUF 2.13%
ATL -15% TB -12% TB 3.42%
DET -10% PIT -1% PIT 8.67% ?
WAS -9% PHI -18% WAS -9.36%
SD -1% MIA -8% SD -7.40% ?
BAL -4% CHI -0% CHI 4.25%
CLE -8% CIN 10% CIN 17.62%
OAK -13% HOU -6% HOU 6.32%
ARI -18% JAC -30% ARI -11.93%
KC 14% DEN 22% DEN 8.22%
MIN -13% SEA 21% SEA 34.21%
SF 8% NO 27% NO 18.97%
GB 9% NYG -1% GB -10.12% ?
NE 4% CAR 21% CAR 17.11%


As you note above their are four games which the GRIDs differ in predicting the outcome, we'll see which GRID is right and wrong.

One other thing, the text output is partially based on the GRID, the GRIDs themselves show the seasons accumulative effects. At this point of the season, I modified the text output to only measure a road team and its road record vs a home team and its home record, thus the numbers in the text are not the same as you see in the GRID. I do this because their are teams that have a greater or lesser tendency to produce on the road vs at home. Most of the time the GRID will predict the same outcome as the simple text output, but their are times when they will differ.

Teams that are 'Better on the road' (as measured w/QB rating differential):

2013 - week 10 - results

TNF, WAS @MIN, suspect coaching by D again (2nd game in a row, see prior game @DAL) almost cost MIN the game, but luckily suspect coaching on O by WAS already cost them the game. Seemingly in control WAS extended their half time lead to 27-14 and they went away from running the ball w/RB Morris. WAS had scored on their first 5 possessions and then proceeded to punt 3 times and end the game on downs. It seems to me WAS has an issue with finishing the game as they were in control. Interestingly enough as well in Q4 w/the game on the line and WAS driving for a TD to tie game, WAS turned almost exclusively to RB Helu, instead of RB Morris.

CIN @BAL, BAL D dominates CIN O for most of the game, though CIN does tie the game and send into OT, it almost seemed as if both teams were going thru the motions or maybe this just wasn't an interesting game.

CAR @SF, CAR D keeps them in the game, CAR O grabs the one chance it had to score a TD and SF FG's just don't cut it as this was a good upset for CAR, though notably SF players were injured during game

DEN @SD, SD D did all it could but it wasn't enough, they just don't have the 'horses' to compete w/the Broncos, that and you must score TD's vs DEN, FG's just won't cut it

SNF, DAL @NO, DAL had several players injured during game, and NO DC Ryan had a great game plan to contain Romo and Co. DAL D just had no answers for Breezy and the boys, that middle parted like the Red Sea.

Again another .500 weekend ATS and just above .500 for totals. And so I inch my way back up to .500 respectability. The surprises for me (or those that I picked Loss [ATS] and Loss [Total])

OAK @NYG, OAK made more of a game than I expected or w/NYG D I may still be thinking they are better than they show. NYG did win SU, but not ATS

JAC @TEN, now I was about to take the pts, but I decided that if JAC was to get off their 0-fer, it would be at home. As for the game TEN QB Locker was injured and QB Fitzpatrick sub'd which was probably the biggest factor for JAC winning, besides playing keep away w/a running game.

HOU @ARI, again I expected more out of HOU O, QB Keenum is playing very well for his third game, but again in the 2nd half (for the third game in a row) HOU has a D that lets you drive and an O that can't move the ball. So is it the players? the playcalling? or a combination of both?

2013 - week 10 - results

Friday, November 08, 2013

2013 - week 10 - picks

GB 14-2 vs division SU
this week, NONE

'SEA hangover' teams the week after playing SEA 1-7 SU/ATS
this week, TB

NFC East 7-14 SU vs non-division opponents
this week, WAS @MIN, DAL @NO, PHI @GB, OAK @NYG

TEAMS w/10 days rest 11-5 ATS/SU
* indicates lost ATS
** indicates won ATS
TEAMS w/10 days rest (10Dr)*=11Dr
this week CIN MIA*

Teams Going into Bye 13-11 SU
Teams Going into Bye 12-12 ATS
* indicates lost ATS
Teams Going into Bye (GiB) 
this week, DAL STL

Teams Coming Off Bye 5-5 ATS/SU  
Teams Coming Off Bye  (CoB) 

11/10 1:00 PM
203 JAC 41 *UNDER*
204 TEN -13 ?*


11/10 1:00 PM
205 PHI 54½ *
206 GB -9½ under

GB QB Wallace starts (preseason game 1)

11/10 1:00 PM
207 BUF 41 *OVER*
208 PIT -3½ *

BUF QB Tuel starts (preseason game 2)
11/7 update: BUF QB Manuel starts

11/10 1:00 PM
209 OAK 43½ under
210 NYG -7 *


11/10 1:00 PM
211 STL 43½ *
212 IND -10 UNDER

STL QB Clemens starts (preseason game 3)
Taking pts, just not comfortable w/IND O, really sputtering w/o WR Wayne

11/10 1:00 PM
213 SEA -6½ under
214 ATL 44 *

ATL has won last 3 games vs SEA (including playoffs)

11/10 1:00 PM
215 CIN -1½ *UNDER*
216 BAL 44 *

10Dr CIN
LY series split, home teams wins
CIN injuries taking a toll on D?
if CIN has a 3rd pony to ride on O, they'll win if not, it's a road loss
unless of course BAL keeps going 3 wide, I suspect with the start of the '2nd season' (9th game) and their record 3-5 and CIN leading their division w/6-3, that BAL will return to ol' school

11/10 1:00 PM
217 DET -2½ ****OVER****
218 CHI 50 *

CHI QB McCown starts (preseason game 2)
series split? home team wins? wk4 DET @home won 40-32
11/7 update: CHI QB Cutler starts

11/10 4:05 PM
219 CAR 42½ UNDER
220 SF -6 *


11/10 4:25 PM
221 HOU 41 *
222 ARI -2½ UNDER

HOU QB Keenum starts (preseason game 3)
3rd tough D in a row for HOU QB Keenum
motivation: DEN 1st game w/o HC Kubiak, DC Phillips interim HC

11/10 4:25 PM
223 DEN -7 under
224 SD 57½ *

Both teams know each others O, so should this game be UNDER?
I initially picked OVER, but thought better of it
motivation: DEN 1st game w/o HC Fox, DC Del Rio interim HC

11/10 8:30 PM
225 DAL 53 *
226 NO -7 *OVER*

NO has yet to lose at home this season and coming off a loss
DAL coming off a 'lucky' home win, they'll need more than luck to win on the road.
DAL 1-3 SU on the road, 3-1 ATS 
?TAKE pts?

11/11 8:40 PM
227 MIA -3 *UNDER?
228 TB 41 *

11Dr MIA
Both teams coming off of OT games, MIA won, TB loss
If TB has not quit on Coach Schiano, I suspect this is a desperate team, they played over their heads on the road at SEA, MIA barely got the win last week AND plays better @home, this game is on the road.
MIA OL controversy, G Incognito OUT, T Martin OUT, coaching ordered '?code red?', media circus, 

it's always a bet against w/drama on a team.

Wednesday, November 06, 2013

2013 - week 10 - Thursday - picks

11/07 8:25 PM
107 WAS -2½ *OVER*
108 MIN 49 *

LY WAS won 38-26 @home

It's interesting that WAS is favored on the road. Last week at SD, WAS ran a lot of plays, out of essentially a run O formation and even passed though Griffin's accuracy didn't hurt them as SD D had issues stopping the run.

In this game, MIN D is used to playing the run and should be better at stopping the run than SD, but MIN D weakness is their pass D which goes against the weakness of WAS O, their pass O, so strength vs strength and weakness vs weakness for WAS O and MIN D.

 Flipping it around MIN O vs WAS D, surprisingly WAS pass D did fairly well against SD pass O last week (though I really think a phantom call against SD O and non-calls by officiating crew affected SD O). WAS pass D is not strong and MIN pass O looked good at times @DAL last week.

MIN run O is well known. I think their is an edge here. WAS D should be playing the run first and if MIN QB Ponder does well again (2 games in-a-row) we should have a close game.

It appears to me that the team that passes better will win the game. I think the total is the softer line, taking a home dog as WAS O has yet to play well on the road.

With ST, MIN appears to hold the edge as WAS has been penalty prone.

Tuesday, November 05, 2013

2013 - week 10 - GRID 10 efficiency

This past 'Hell-o-ween' weekend also killed the efficiency GRID predictions as compared to the QBrating GRID (that I still do just not posting for 'net consumption)

here's a snapshot of results from this past weekend:

qb rtg
R RO-D H HO-D Predi Dif
CIN 0.75 MIA 7.9 MIA 7.15
ATL -31.9 CAR 32.4333 CAR 64.333333
MIN -32.033 DAL 18.025 DAL 50.058333 (did not cover ATS)
NO 1.43333 NYJ -4.725 NO -6.158333 X
TEN -12.967 STL -6.9333 STL 6.0333333 X
KC 32.8333 BUF 8.925 KC -23.90833
SD 4.075 WAS -7 SD -11.075  X
PHI 20.925 OAK -4.8 PHI -25.725
TB -35.6 SEA 61.7667 SEA 97.366667 (did not cover ATS)
BAL -24.2 CLE 7.875 CLE 32.075
PIT 17.275 NE 22.375 NE 5.1
IND 20.8333 HOU -15.9 IND -36.73333
CHI -18.133 GB 42.6667 GB 60.8  X

my own efficiency
road RO-D ef home HO-D ef predicts DIF
CIN -0% MIA -10% CIN -0.092486 X
ATL -9% CAR 17% CAR 0.2618816
MIN -15% DAL 10% DAL 0.2445124 (did not cover ATS)
NO 16% NYJ -3% NO -0.191044 X
TEN 2% STL 7% STL 0.0490143 X
KC 17% BUF -5% KC -0.216063
SD 1% WAS -7% SD -0.086371 X
PHI 7% OAK 5% PHI -0.01066
TB -15% SEA 25% SEA 0.4008751 (did not cover ATS)
BAL -4% CLE -6% BAL -0.019247 X
PIT 0% NE 16% NE 0.1550626
IND 20% HOU -5% IND -0.25594
CHI -5% GB 30% GB 0.3464591 X

dif for:


As you can see it's 4 wrong vs 6 wrong, those two different choices by QBrating were spot on.

The errors;
 NO @NYJ - NYJ stuck to alternating W's and L's
TEN @STL - I guess I need to factor in new QB's better, but how?
SD @WAS - officiating and play calling were bigger factors than ST and WAS QB Griffin accuracy
CHI @GB - key injury to GB QB Rodgers in Q1

This week's GRID is interesting as some of the top teams are falling back to the pack.

2013 - week 10 - GRID - efficiency
I separated the teams by top 15%, mid 9% and bottom 15%. Granted I could have thinned the middle out by going to only 4%, but PIT, HOU, NYG, and WAS all have a chance at a .500 season and MIA, CLE and OAK have an even better chance. So I gave them all a chance at getting to .500 for the season.

NYJ and DET appears to be an anomaly w/less than 0% O-D efficiency. I think this is because that when they lose, they lose big and when they win, they don't win by a large margin in efficiency, thus they'll be less than 0% until there W/L habits change.

notable movers for the past month:
MIN is down 6%
SEA is down 5%
NO is down 5%
PHI is down 5% (even with their huge win this past weekend @OAK)
ATL down 4%

NYG is up 14%
CAR is up 5%
CIN is up 5%
SF is up 4%
HOU is up 4%

2013 - week 09 - results

Happy Halloween, CIN @MIA, again for the second game in a row MIA D plays well in the first half and looks like they should win the game, and then again their opponent roars back in the 3rd/4th quarters. MIA O looks ineffective. CIN O TO's are keeping this game close.
This looks like an angle to exploit w/MIA for first and second half bets.
In OT, MIA D wins game w/safety by DE Cameron Wake. What a game, on all hallow's day, as another upset occurs. MIA ends 0-4 streak, CIN coming off a dominating win vs NYJ, have costly injuries to go along with loss.
Note: late injury update as CIN LT Whitworth is inactive. In game injury update Q2 CIN DT Atkins injured and does not return. Q4 RB Bernard injured does not return as well. CIN OLB Harrison injured thumb out as well.

SD @WAS, SD led at half 14-7 and seemed to be in control of game. A phantom pass interference on SD WR Allen (video replayed shows he had a yard around him and never touched DB) did not stop SD from scoring a TD, but there was also another call later in the 2nd half that was curious as well. SD QB Rivers ultimately made some passing errors IMO, my guess is pre-snap he made a decision to go to WR Allen and he wasn't open. WR Allen also had a drop when he was wide open. So SD O did have a large share of the blame in the second half for their loss on the road to WAS. Why did SD O go to RB Woodhead inside of the 1 yard line, RB Mathews was used on the next play but it was up the middle, he could beat an edge player w/size. SD appear to try 'sneaking' RB Woodhead thru, they should've gone to TE Gates, who can clearly gain position. REALLY ODD playcalling by SD O.

MIN @DAL, MIN QB Ponder had his best game of the season, DAL seems to play to the level of their competition. DAL won SU, but did not cover ATS and could(should?) have lost the game. MIN D play calling at end of game, most likely cost them the game, prevent D allowed Romo and Co to drive the length of the field and win the game. Even MIN D players called out their DC on prevent D of rushing 3 (instead of 4).

PIT @NE, two teams w/issues ending up with a high scoring affair, I've seen this before it just didn't occur to me that it was the perfect fit for these teams. One desperate for a win (PIT) and the other seemingly winning with smoke and mirrors at times with a recently decimated D (NE) due to injuries. NE pass O has improved especially w/TE 'Gronk' appearing to be back in 'form'

IND @HOU, HOU again very good in the first half w/QB Keenum (looked like a playoff team) and really ineffective in the 2nd half. Though part of the O's woes should be placed on their kicker missing 3 of 4 FG's. IND won by 3 on the road, but HOU play calling or the absence of head coach Kubiak due to his collapse at half time really affected the team. Consider IND really lucky to win this game, they had no real O w/o WR Wayne and came back from 18pts to win vs a distracted team (loss of focus).

All in all, it was a Hell -o'ween for some teams, with some huge routs (PHI @OAK, PHI QB Foles 3rd start 7TD ties NFL record) and unexpected outcomes (NO @NYJ, Ryan Bowl V and Rex is 5-0 vs bro, NO O was thought to be the better team and NYJ alternating WL record, came thru w/another W after a L). Unnoticed maybe is the TB @SEA game won in OT by SEA (3rd OT of the weekend) w/TB QB Glennon also having the best game of his rookie season. TB could've won, SEA a bit lucky. KC D is playing outstanding outscoring KC O and BUF O. BUF D and run O against most other teams would've won game.

MNF update, GB QB Rodgers Q1 injury and is all lost? not quite as CHI D gives up two long TD runs to GB. On short notice GB Wallace did not do as well as CHI QB McCown did in when coming in for CHI QB Cutler in their last game two weeks ago. CHI D played inspired, but faltered here and there. CHI as a team played well overall and the rivalry is on. GB injury to QB Rodgers looms big.

After a good WL ATS record last week, I went in the exact opposite direction this weekend.
A lot of totals won with OVER, 10-2 pending the outcome of MNF (10-3 w/MNF game).
I ended up below .500 ATS and Totals, a hell-o-ween...

2013 - week 09 - results

Thursday, October 31, 2013

2013 - week 09 - picks

GB 14-1 vs division SU
this week, CHI @GB

 'SEA hangover' teams the week after playing SEA 1-6 SU/ATS
this week STL

 NFC East 4-14 SU vs non-division opponents
this week, MIN @DAL, SD @WAS, PHI @OAK

 TEAMS w/10 days rest 10-4 SU
TEAMS w/10 days rest 9-5 ATS
* indicates lost ATS 
TEAMS w/10 days rest (10Dr)
this week CAR TB

 Teams Going into Bye 9-11 SU
Teams Going into Bye 8-12 ATS
* indicates lost ATS 
Teams Going into Bye (GiB)
 this week, CLE KC NE NYJ

 Teams Coming Off Bye 5-5 ATS/SU
Teams Coming Off Bye (CoB)
 this week, BAL CHI HOU IND SD TEN

 It's the second half of the season for half of the NFL
It's the final game of the first half of the season for:
I'm thinking we should have more tight games this weekend, but last week only 5 games were less than 10 pt difference 8 games were decided by 10 or more pts

11/03 1:00 PM
401 ATL 43½ OVER
402 CAR -7½ ****

ATL on the road couldn't handle ARI, so vs a div rival @home...
10Dr CAR

11/03 1:00 PM
403 MIN 47½ *UNDER?
404 DAL -10½ ****

DAL O having issues, but take pts???

11/03 1:00 PM
405 NO -6 ***
406 NYJ 45½ over

NYJ alternating WL, this game W?
NYJ banged up

11/03 1:00 PM
407 TEN -3 ***UNDER***
408 STL 39½ **

STL QB Clemens starts (preseason game 2)
this game should be close w/stifling D's

11/03 1:00 PM
409 KC -3 *
410 BUF 40½ under

KC run D??
BUF QB Tuel starts? QB Flynn starts?
KC loss LY 17-35 @BUF

11/03 1:00 PM
411 SD -1 *
412 WAS 51 under

if SD D forces WAS O to pass, it'll be a long day for WAS

11/03 4:05 PM
413 PHI 45 *UNDER*
414 OAK -2½ *

PHI QB Foles starts
PHI QB Foles getting split reps w/Barkley
Split reps not a good sign for any team

11/03 4:05 PM
415 TB 40 *UNDER
416 SEA -16 *

10Dr TB
SEA 6 days rest
really thought about taking pts

11/03 4:25 PM
417 BAL -2½ under?
418 CLE 41 *

CLE QB Campbell starts (preseason game 2)

11/03 4:25 PM
419 PIT 44 UNDER
420 NE -6½ *

PIT OL shuffle, LT,LG,RG M*A*S*H unit

11/03 8:30 PM
421 IND -2½ *UNDER*
422 HOU 45 *

IND WR#1 ?
HOU QB Keenum starts (preseason game 2)
HOU QB Keenum another tough start (1st @KC)

11/04 8:40 PM
423 CHI 49½ under?
424 GB -11 ***

CHI QB McCown starts (preseason game 1) 

2013 - week 09 - Thursday pick

10/31 8:25 PM
303 CIN -2½ *****
304 MIA 42½ under 

MIA RT J Martin - has left the team
if MIA O couldn't handle NE D, CIN D is so much better
CIN MLB Maualuga OUT
CIN doesn't play as well on the road, but MIA plays worse at home
MIA won LY 17-13 @CIN

Tuesday, October 29, 2013

2013 - week 09 - GRID - efficiency

The biggest mover is NYG up +6% from last week, PHI also had a big move, but it was down -5%

2013 - week 09 - GRID - efficiency

2013 - week 08 - results

DAL @DET, Q1 and what strikes me is 'how can DAL win?' w/their first 4 drives ending in punts, then their D turns it up and keeps them in the game, but in the end DAL D could not stop DET O. DET O continued to move the ball throughout the game. DAL O sputtered for the most part and when they really need a first down to keep the ball and kill time to end the game. DAL could not, they left DET w/62 sec on the clock and what a finish for DET.

MIA @NE, a tale of two halves in the first half MIA did all the right things and led 17-3 at the half, but in the second half, they could do nothing right giving up turnovers and sacks to close out the game. It seemed to me that NE D blitzing really bothered Tannehill and company. It was as to me that MIA was ill prepared for constant blitzing. If Tannehill had a hot read for the blitz or a screen, it just did not happen during the 2nd Half and NE pressed their advantage, until they got the lead and kept it. Just one other thing of note. The batting the ball penalty on MIA DT/DE Vernon was a bad call by refs, and gave outstanding field position, which led to NE scoring a TD and MIA then seemed to be in 'panic' mode. I say panic because they didn't run the ball.

WAS @DEN, somewhat interesting, but I fell asleep, I guess I couldn't see how WAS O would be able to move the ball consistently.

GB @MIN, MIN gets a ST TD, but later GB returns the favor, though this was a division game, MIN did not play as well (or with a greater emotional uplift at home) as I thought they could, count them as toast for the rest of the season.

NYJ, ATL, and DAL all lost on the road after winning vs division foes (NYJ beat NE, ATL beat TB, DAL beat PHI) last week

This week I ended up just above .500 ATS and just below .500 for totals.

KC won SU but did not cover ATS, this bodes well for CLE

CIN blows out NYJ in a big surprise to me. I really thought it would be a much closer game. The biggest surprise was ATL collapse on the road at ARI. ARI QB Palmer had a much more conservative game and thus had only one int (instead of the normal 2 - either 2ints or an int and a fumble for so many games).

I should've stuck w/my original pick of DEN/Over... sigh

Lost in the SEA D winning their game on the road @STL is the fact that STL D played very well and their O just the opposite.
2013 - week 08 - results

Friday, October 25, 2013

Recent post by Sports Reference

NFL Team Records vs. Each Division Since 2002

Nice stuff to review, a few teams are known for dominating and being dominated

The W:L ratio for a few are 3:1 (or 1:3) and theirs also a few at 2:1 (or 1:2), but many have only a slight advantage.

Of course, these are just for SU, but this could be useful for money line bets, especially with a parlay.

Wednesday, October 23, 2013

2013 - week 08 - picks

'SEA hangover' teams the week after playing SEA 0-6 SU/ATS
this week ARI

NFC East 4-12 SU vs non-division opponents
this week, DAL @DET, WAS @DEN

TEAMS w/10 days rest 8-4 ATS/SU
this week SEA ARI

Teams Going into Bye 4-10 ATS/SU 
Teams Going into Bye (GiB) JAC, DEN, NYG, DET, SF, ARI

Teams Coming Off Bye 3-5 ATS/SU
Teams Coming Off Bye (CoB) NO, OAK

10/27 1:00 PM
209 SF -16½ *
210 JAC 41 under

@Wembly Stadium, London, England
JAC HC Bradley disappointed in lack of effort for last weeks game vs SD
10/21 update: JAC HC Bradley has left team due to fathers passing away
JAC interim HC DB coach DeWayne Walker
JAC got 28pts vs DEN and they covered, so why pick against them?
SF D, they are the reason and this game is essentially another road game for JAC so no home crowd, not that they get that much of an advantage at home.
On the road and in another country I think we'll see SF have more fans than JAC.
BTW I picked JAC to cover when they were getting 28pts (see week 6)

10/27 1:00 PM
211 DAL 51 *
212 DET -3 OVER

DET OL injuries

10/27 1:00 PM
213 NYG 53 *
214 PHI -6 under

PHI QB Vick?
series split?

10/27 1:00 PM
215 CLE 39½ ***UNDER***
216 KC -7 *****

CLE QB Campbell starts (preseason game 1)
CLE QB Carousel
This should be -17½

10/27 1:00 PM
217 BUF 50½ *
218 NO -12½ *UNDER

NO TE Graham starts?
this might be the most interesting game of the week
due to BUF HC Marrone (xNO OC 06-08)

10/27 1:00 PM
219 MIA 45½ *
220 NE -6½ *under

MIA OL shuffle? new LT, old LT->RT?
can NE cover? I expect MIA to lose due to errors
10/25 update: changed pick from MIA/OVER to MIA/UNDER

10/27 4:05 PM
221 NYJ 41 *
222 CIN -6½ *under*

NYJ just not as good/lucky on the road, but...

10/27 4:05 PM
223 PIT -3 *under?
224 OAK 40½ *

This game could go over. ST play for both PIT and OAK are both down this year.

10/27 4:25 PM
225 WAS 58½ *
226 DEN -13 ***OVER***

WAS FS Meriweather OUT
WAS SS Doughty out?
10/24 update: changed pick from DEN/OVER to WAS/OVER

10/27 4:25 PM
227 ATL 45 ******
228 ARI -2½ **over**

ATL bet on 1st half, bet against 2nd half
TO's will kill ARI chances

10/27 8:30 PM
229 GB -9½ *
230 MIN 46½ under

MIN QB Ponder returns (after 4 weeks)
MIN QB Carousel
MIN desperate moves @QB, but team isn't playing desperate

10/28 8:40 PM
231 SEA -10½ *
232 STL 42½ under

SEA FB Robinson returns
STL QB Clemens starts (preseason game 1)

2013 - week 08 - Thursday picks

10/24 8:25 PM
103 CAR -6½ *
104 TB 40 under

TB QB Glennon 4th start (preseason game 4)

CAR is getting a lot more national media attention. I do think they'll win, but will they cover?

One motivating factor for CAR will be last year's losses to TB. TB swept CAR LY as they had their 'number'.

What's different this year? TB QB and secondary as well as CAR D. I give an edge to CAR in this year's draft. TB's one saving grace is their ability to find vet's. I think CAR younger players from the past drafts are coming around and this game maybe a statement game for CAR. A win on the road against a hated division rival.

10/23 update: betting against TB in the 2nd half, seems to be a very good angle as they've scored only 1 TD in the second half.

Tuesday, October 22, 2013

2013 - GRID - "new" - efficiency - week 08

2013 - GRID - week 08 - efficiency

I've been trying out another GRID ranking for a couple of weeks and the above essentially takes Offense scoring efficiency (as a percentage) subtracted from Defense scoring efficiency. That gap between Offense and Defense appears to be a very good indicator of a teams strength.

You'll notice above that their are 13 teams above 0%, which means the majority of NFL teams (19) are below 0%. This seems to be how good/bad NFL teams are this year (well at least for this week, now I'm thinking I wish I had tracked this from week 1).

The division with the greatest parity appears to be the AFC North where an 8% gap exists between the top (CIN) and bottom (CLE) teams. The division with the greatest disparity (33%) is the AFC South and NFC South.

This GRID ranking is an accumulative ranking mean the whole season counts, not just a couple of weeks.

Eleven teams (or slightly more than 1/3 of NFL teams) are between +4% and -4%. There are ten teams above +4% and eleven teams below -4%.

I guess this is somewhat of a better GRID, though I think CAR maybe a bit high.

The strongest division appears to be in the AFC west. The weakest (IMO), the AFC North and NFC East, though an argument could be made for other divisions as well (AFC South w/JAC is a doozy).

Monday, October 21, 2013

2013 - week 07 - results

SEA @ARI, did not watch due to other commitment

DAL @PHI, expected much more offense, got much more defense or more woeful O, PHI O is in a continual decline from season opener

NE @NYJ, interesting game to watch, FG in OT wins game on little known rule change that penalized NE. Though through much of the game, NE could not control either OL or DL, NYJ did just enough to pull out the home win.

HOU @KC, excellent D by KC, HOU isn't shabby either, KC did about as well as expected. HOU QB Keenum looked good often getting 10+yds per completion. Hopefully next game, Kubiak and company will give him more leeway in changing the play. KC waited until Q4 to unleash blitzes that HOU could not counter. Really smart strategy by KC.

DEN @IND, 'homecoming' for Manning seemed more of an announcement that this IND team is firmly in the grasp of Luck and Co. Funny how IND CB Vontae Davis erroneously says he prep'd for Brady (s/b Manning) at the end of the game (during interview). The RB's for both teams fumbled, SD timing of fumble was much worse and may have cost DEN the game. One thing I noticed IND really played DEN WR Welker very well and the numbers also show that as well. IND 2ndary isn't too bad, though they did have injuries during the game, their m2m D really stymied Manning, that and the physical coverage that the officials allowed in this game.

I did really well ATS this weekend and ok for totals (above .500)

The games that I missed badly (losses ATS and total):

STL @CAR - STL had been playing better the prior two games, I was thinking they would keep game closer, but losing QB Bradford  as well as their composure during the game really hurt them

MIN @NYG - I haven't watched yet, but the stats don't lie, MIN QB Freeman had an awful game, you would think w/two weeks to prepare that he would've done better. NYG did have several players come back off of injury list - most notably C Baas. NYG QB Manning had 0 interceptions which is a big plus, considering that the offense was a turnover machine for the past 6 weeks

2013 - week 07 - results

Wednesday, October 16, 2013

2013 - week 07 - picks

NFC East 2-12 SU vs non-division opponents

this week NYG CHI

Teams Going into Bye (GiB) CHI, HOU, SD, TEN
Teams Going into Bye 3-7 ATS/SU W(CAR,MIN,WAS) L[GB,PIT,TB,MIA,ATL,NO,OAK]

Teams Coming Off Bye (CoB) ATL, MIA
Teams Coming Off Bye 2-4 ATS/SU W(GB,PIT) L (CAR,MIN,WAS,TB)

10/20 1:00 PM
397 NE -4 under
398 NYJ 43½ **

NE LB Mayo OUT -key- player, team leader, D communicator
another FG game?
I expect NYJ to run the ball more and play keep away from NE Brady and Co.

10/20 1:00 PM
399 SD -7½ ***
400 JAC 45 UNDER


10/20 4:25 PM
401 HOU 40½ UNDER
402 KC -6½ ***


10/20 1:00 PM
403 CIN 47½ *
404 DET -3 UNDER

I don't think DET can just use WR Johnson as a decoy and expect to win

10/20 1:00 PM
405 BUF 42 *
406 MIA -8½ *OVER*

BUF QB Lewis 2nd start (preseason game 2)
+8pts is a lot when both teams have a D and BUF likes to run
This season between both teams:
only one game has ended w/a total less than 43pts
MIA D not as good as last season
BUF D appears to be a step up from last season

10/20 1:00 PM
407 CHI 50½ *
408 WAS -1½ over

10 Day rest CHI
WAS LS 2nd yr

10/20 1:00 PM
409 DAL 56½ ***
410 PHI -3 OVER

PHI QB Foles 2nd start (preseason game 2)

10/20 1:00 PM
411 STL 42 *
412 CAR -6 *UNDER

CAR big expectations after another blowout win
"fool me once, shame on you, fool me twice, ..."

10/20 1:00 PM
413 TB 42½ ovER?
414 ATL -7 **

TB QB Glennon 3rd start (preseason game 3)

10/20 4:05 PM
415 SF -4 *
416 TEN 39½ ***UNDER***

TEN QB Fitzpatrick 3rd start (preseason game 3)
*** stellar D's ***
TEN O in dink/dunk mode, QB Fitzpatrick inaccurate
I'm wondering if SF will cover
TEN O limit TOs and this game will be close
10/17 update: TEN new C starts
10/17 update: TEN new MLB starts
10/17 update: changed pick from TEN/U to SF/U 10/20 4:25 PM 417 CLE 46 under 418 GB -10 * GB 3/4 of LB's 'new' 10/20 4:25 PM 419 BAL 40½ under 420 PIT -1½ * bitter rivals, PIT needs win more 10/20 8:30 PM 421 DEN -6½ ***UNDER*** 422 IND 56½ * DEN DE Von Miller returns DEN RT? 10/21 8:40 PM 423 MIN 47 * 424 NYG -3 *OVER* MIN QB Freeman starts 11 Day rest NYG So much for MIN early bye, total seems to be easier to predict both teams have given up at least 27pts each game this season. If you can guess who'll win the first half, then you'll win the game I'm thinking MIN D will win TO battle