Tuesday, December 31, 2013

2013 - week 18, playoffs - picks

Early thoughts and more....

Last week GB, SD, PHI played win and they're in, essentially another playoff game, thus this will be their 2nd wk in-a-row where they must win. Keeping your juices flowing isn't so easy two weeks in a row.
This may be a good separate parlay to try (bet against GB, SD, PHI)
**SF, CIN, NO** and maybe IND since they really played hard last week w/starters and KC did not.

Bet on the older team (based on starters):
**KC, NO, SD, SF**
(note: CIN starters had more games last year than SD)

Bet on the older QB:
**KC, NO, SD, GB**

Bet on QB w/end of season higher QB rating:
KC( 89.1) IND( 87.0)
NO(104.7) PHI(119.2)
SD(105.5) CIN( 88.8)
SF( 91.6) GB (104.9)
**KC, PHI, SD, GB**

Bet on the higher QB O-D rating:
KC( 7.6) IND( 3.3)
NO(21)  PHI(18)
SD( 9.2) CIN(15)
SF(16)  GB (-7.5)
**KC, NO, CIN, SF**

Bet on the higher scoring efficiency O-D rating:
KC( 3%) IND(7%)
NO(10%) PHI(3%)
SD( 9%) CIN(5%)
SF(11%) GB (3%)
**IND, NO, SD, SF**

01/04 4:35 PM
101 KC 46½ *
102 IND -2½ over

IND won wk16 23-7 @KC
Was KC playin' possum in wk16? (Knowing they could not improve playoff position at that time). Last week the majority of KC backups played and they almost won the game on the road @SD.
IND starters played hard for their win vs JAC last weekend, so we'll have a clash of philosophies this weekend, play 'em and keep them hot or rest 'em and stay healthy for the final 4 games (if you make it to SB).

01/04 8:10 PM
103 NO 54 OVER
104 PHI -2½ *

total is far more tempting than side, these teams should score in the 30's
NO hasn't played well on the road this season and PHI hasn't played much better at home. NO is the more 'seasoned' team, but PHI O has shown itself to be dynamic and w/ST that can be a field changer. If weather becomes a factor, you really can only look at PHI.

01/05 1:05 PM
105 SD 47 under
106 CIN -7 ***

CIN won wk13 17-10 @SD
It's hard to pick SD. SD QB Rivers is playing his best ball since ?? at least several seasons ago, but they couldn't dominate KC backups last weekend and needed OT and a non-called penalty by referees in regulation that probably cost PIT a playoff spot. CIN has been one and done for the past two years. Looks like they get over a hump this year (just like ATL last year).

01/05 4:40 PM
107 SF -3 *
108 GB 48 under

SF won wk1 34-28 @home
GB won last weekend often going for it on 4th down. Good fortune follow the bold and brave. I don't think GB OL will hold up well vs SF DL and GB QB Rodgers may need to endure multiple sacks to have a chance at winning.

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