2013 - week 21 - Super Bowl XLVIII (48) - results

WOW a blow out for SEA 43-8, just a dominating performance, by the end of Q1 it was clear SEA D was in control and DEN O was mistake prone, who'd have thought the younger team had the poise and clearly won the majority of their battles. SEA D ended up w/2 ints and 3 forced fumbles, they will be remembered for a spectacular performance, jut like Bruno Mars and the half time show.

SEA D caused DEN O to end their first four drives on a safety, punt (3-and-out), interception and interception returned for a TD. SEA led 8-0 at the end of Q1, 22-0 at the end of Q2 and 36-8 at the end of Q3.

SEA D and ST put the exclamation points on the game w/a Q2 intrTD and Q3 krTD. When DEN did not go for it on 4th down in Q3 the game was conceded IMO. I had projected a 10 possession game for each team, thus in Q3 DEN down 0-29 and they didn't go for it on 4th, the question became would DEN be goose egged by SEA D. DEN did score once at the end of Q3, but SEA was clearly in control, even letting RB Turbin play the entire Q4. SEA secondary depth came thru when CB Sherman injured his ankle. I was a bit surprised to see SEA LB Wright play and play very well. SEA WR Harvin also turned in a stellar performance coming off an injury.

So I ended up goose egged for SB, 0-fer, sigh....
Playoffs overall record ATS 6-4-1 totals 7-4


One other comment I was correct in that DEN D could control SEA run O, but SEA O won on 3rd down, SEA QB Wilson played very smart, even though he wasn't as accurate as he could be and they were bogged down in the red zone twice early in the game, he kept the chains moving and they finished off drives with scores. SEA finished their first half drives w/FG, FG, TD and end of half possession. SEA O first punt occurred in Q3 and they just ran out the clock in Q4 giving up the ball on downs twice. SEA O also scored 2 TD's off of DEN TO's the same as their D.

My guess is Manning will be known as a choker in the big one.

2013 - teams built to win - results

Reviewing an earlier post on teams built to win for the 2013 season I wanted to review results of the 7 teams that were viewed as teams built to win and their results for the 2013 season.

Notable teams that have 8 or more players with $6+ mil contracts:

DAL  - another disappointing underachieving season with an 8-8 record. Until management comes around to a major change, they appear to be heading toward futility.

PHI   - won their division with a 10-6 record, loss in the wild card round, 1st week of the playoffs at home to NO. Still they will be viewed as being on the plus side of the ledger for the 2013 season.

CHI  - another disappointing underachieving season with an 8-8 record. Some will view this as a good start, but does anyone remember they fired Lovie Smith for a 10-6 record? To me, this team, this staff, is still searching for itself, are they an offensive team? a defensive team? and they also declined with their ST play as well. We'll wait for the draft to form a stronger opinion, but as of right now. They are still chasing GB and DET may have already eclipsed them with their firing of HC Schwartz and hiring of HC Caldwell. MIN will definitely be much better on D with their new hire of HC Zimmer.

ATL  - a highly underachieving season with a 4-12 record. Is ATL personnel decision on the decline? They did bring in Scott Piolo this off season who worked with their current GM. ATL letting go Abraham (who thrived at ARI) and Grimes (who solidified MIA secondary) were the two key cuts from their team last year which will be be viewed as highly questionable. Think of it as the remaining cast of personnel not being up to snuff without these two and you really wonder about player evaluation by staff. Who's responsible and who's making recommendations? They don't seem to have the requisite insight into players and playing at the NFL level of competition. 

TB  - their disappointing season with a 4-12 record resulted in the firing of HC Schiano, with reports this off season coming from players of tuning out their HC during the season (though this could be surmised from media reports during the season). Their new hire of HC Lovie Smith points towards an uptick for this team at least defensively in the near future. Their offense will need to be seen to be believed in, so we'll reserve judgement for later on.

SEA  - a 13-3 record, two playoff wins and seeking their third win in SB 48 this team is on the rise. Their's even talk of a dynasty, but media speculation may have jumped the gun. They first need to win a Super Bowl first, then win another Super Bowl in two of the next 3 years, before 'dynasty' talk will be relevant.

SF  - a 12-4 record, two playoff wins and a disappointing 4th quarter performance (3 turn overs - fumble, two interceptions) in the NFC Conference Championships at their division rivals (SEA) home stadium. Seems 'finishing' consistently well is their only problem, which points to their QB Kaepernick. SF window may have closed, they'll likely be in the playoffs again, but Super Bowl talk should wait until their offense can gain more consistency from the QB position. The injuries to Iupati and Bowman may hamper SF this upcoming 2014 season. Maybe SF HC Harbaugh gave up on QB Alex Smith too soon, we'll see if KC does well next year as they also suffered from injuries in their playoff game.

So overall, only 3 teams reached the playoffs, PHI, SEA, SF and the rest (DAL, CHI, ATL, TB) are still saddled with high 'debt' and nothing to show for it. I guess we'll see more purging of players from the 'disappointed' teams, but will it change anything? Constructing a teams seems to be more art than science or the main ingredients for team success are unknown and the owner needs to find another recipe since the current one isn't working and not likely to succeed.

Their is hope with TB, CHI still has a year or two to get better. ATL is on the down slope and DAL is just lost in their own self glorification, that they can't see their own selves and their bumps and warts to make the right decision.

You don't need all those high salaries to win, most notably NE a very young team and IND this year stuck out as having great support staffs that coached like no one else. So those teams with a lot of high salary players may be 'built to win', but not all can win and thus we'll always note the disappointing teams and their underachievements. If it works, the teams will try to keep the players and coaching staff together, if it doesn't I expect a purge of players and staff.

2013 International games - results

My original post can be seen here: http://bettingonnfl.blogspot.com/2013_04_01_archive.html


Let's review my original angle of picking teams:

International games:

wk04 PIT vs MIN @Wembley, England
wk08 SF vs JAC @Wembley, England
wk13 ATL vs BUF @Toronto, Canada

The disadvantage: An extra road game vs out of conference opponents

The expected outcome: all 'home' (MIN, JAC, BUF) teams lose

The actual outcome: MIN gets the unexpected WIN

PIT 27 MIN 34
SF 42 JAC 10
ATL 34 BUF 31

Comment: PIT and MIN were 0-3 heading into game, MIN wanted it more. PIT won their next 2 games and turned it on in the 2nd half of the season, while MIN continued to fade away and eventually fired their HC at the end of the season.

Expectations: 2-1 ATS

noted: all games went OVER the total

Total (Over/Under) Season Wins - results

Checking back on preseason posts, I thought it might be nice to see how I did with Total Season Over/Under Wins for 2013. The prior post can be seen here:
http://bettingonnfl.blogspot.com/2013/05/2013-total-wins.html

I did fairly well, mostly even in the AFC with the exception of the AFC North where I picked all correct. As for the NFC I was either great (NFC North 4-0, West 3-1) or I sucked (NFC East 0-4, South 1-3).
So for the AFC I ended up 10-6 and the NFC 8-8, overall 18-14, a money making investment over the season for picking total wins.

You'll notice in my early season post, that I didn't pick either Over or Under for STL. I did make a note that I thought it was just right, but I should have made a notation of 'no pick' or 'even', thus no bets on STL total season wins. Thus my overall record could be viewed as 17-14 since no bets were made on STL.

I also should have kept my pick for DAL as Under instead I changed to Over. First instincts are often correct.

Biggest disappointments: HOU, ATL, TB
Biggest surprises: CAR, ARI, KC, PHI

AFC East line pick actual result
BUF  6½ Under 6-10 WIN
MIA  7½ Over 8-8 WIN
NE  11½ Under 12-4 LOSS
NYJ  6½ Under 8-8 LOSS

AFC North
BAL  8½ Under 8-8 WIN
CIN  8½ Over 11-5 WIN
CLE  6 Under 4-12 WIN
PIT  9 Under 8-8 WIN
 
AFC South
HOU  10½ Over 2-14 LOSS
IND  8½ Over 11-5 WIN
JAC  5 Under 4-12 WIN
TEN  6½ Under 7-9 LOSS

AFC West
DEN  11½ Under 13-3 LOSS
KC  7 Over 11-5 WIN
OAK  5½ Under 4-12 WIN
SD  7½ Under 10-6 LOSS

NFC East line pick actual result
DAL  8½ Over 8-8 LOSS
NYG  9 Over 7-9 WIN
PHI  7 Under 10-6 LOSS
WAS  8½ Over 3-13 LOSS

NFC North
CHI  8½ Under 8-8 WIN
DET  7½ Under 7-9 WIN
GB  10½ Under 8-7-1 LOSS
MIN  7½ Under 5-10-1 WIN

NFC South
ATL  10 Over 4-12 LOSS
CAR  7 Under 12-4 LOSS
NO  9½ Over 11-5 WIN
TB  7½ Over 4-12 LOSS

NFC West
ARI  5½ Over 10-6 WON
SF  11½ Under 12-4 LOSS
SEA  10½ Over 13-3 WON
STL  7 Even 7-9 WON

2013 - week 21 - Super Bowl picks

The betting angle that WON SU 3 weeks in-a-row
Bet on the higher scoring efficiency O-D rating:

This week:
SEA(17%) DEN(17%)

note: from last week SEA +0% (no gain), DEN +2% gain

DEN designated home, we should review both teams as road teams

O-D scoring efficiency
SEA 11% (@home 25%)
DEN 13% (@home 27%)

DEN holds an edge on the road and at home as well


QB rtgs
 ROAD  HOME
DEN 22.175 SEA 40.7125
SEA 26.2375 DEN 29.8875
note: the much larger difference for SEA (14) as compared to DEN (7)
performance wise this appears to indicate an advantage for DEN


02/02 6:30 PM
101 SEA 48 UNDER
102 DEN -2½ **

Everyone will instantly recognize the match up of #1's DEN O vs SEA D, but how many are really analyzing the match up of SEA O vs DEN D?

ST coverage and return teams need to be recognized as well.
SEA holds an edge w/KO coverage, they are just faster and stronger w/opponents who dare to take it out of the end zone often not reaching the 20 yd line (their opponent should have kneeled and taken the touchback)

SEA holds an edge w/KO return as I wonder if DEN will allow Holliday to return KOs

DEN holds an edge w/punt coverage, their punter Colquitt has been exceptional at times, often dropping the ball inside the 10 yd line w/coverage team downing the ball inside the 5 yd line

SEA holds an edge w/punt return, I just don't like DEN WR Decker as the PR, if he's ON he's OK, if he's OFF he can be bad. DEN really should just let Holliday be the PR

NO edge between kickers as they are both capable of kicking in bad field conditions, weather and making long FGs.

TV time outs plays a part in the total for the SuperBowl. TV timeouts extend the game often giving offenses an extended view of their opponents D and giving offenses to change it up and attack in the last 2 min of Q2. Still I chose the under due to SEA O relying on their run game and short passing to play keep away from Manning and Co. This really is the only proven method of beating DEN QB Manning. Lessen his opportunities w/the ball as Manning does not make many mistakes.

If SEA wins, it'll be more of a team effort than any one individual, though there will likely be standout performances. SEA has probably the 2nd best young QB (I rate IND QB Luck higher). SEA uses a bruising run game, stifling D and an opportunistic ST play to win games. SEA is not built to come from behind by more than two scores.

If DEN wins, it's likely they get the lead and don't relinquish it. Everyone knows of their record setting O, but their D is not so shabby itself and their ST can be exceptional.

The one factor that may change my mind, the weather and if a starter is replaced due to whatever happens from now until game day. I may then update my choices.

1/21 more thoughts:
Everyone knows the way to beat Manning and Co. is to play keep away. A sound running game and good play calling in the red zone will go a long way for SEA to beat DEN. SEA has the requisite D to make it tough on any QB in the NFL, thus to beat their D, a 'short' game is required as well, mixing in runs with short quick throws is what Manning is best at doing. I'm relying on Manning and Co. overall greater experience at playing the NFL game. I think Manning and Co. will play the short, quick game until they get a lead, where they will then toss a long one or two, just to keep SEA D 'honest'.

SEA QB Wilson maybe forced to throw the ball more often on than they would like as DEN run D has played well these last two games. If so, my best guess SEA goes as Wilson goes, if he fails to gain yardage on long distance downs, this game could be a one sided affair.

It's strength vs strength and weakness vs weakness, I just view SEA weakness on passing downs hard to ignore. If SEA ST steps up and takes over the game, this will at least keep it close for a bit, but ultimately, I see far more scenarios that work for DEN than for SEA. Their will probably be somewhere between 8 and 10 possession in the game by both teams, maximizing these possessions has been more of DEN forte this season than SEA, it'll take TDs to win game as FG's just won't cut it.

SEA may have an emo edge for this game, but how long will it last? If they can't keep pace w/DEN, then an emo edge won't last that long even for a well rested team.

2013 - week 20 - results

NE @DEN, CBS, as I suspected the game, did not go over the total as NE had a tough time running the ball on DEN D and DEN O was much more efficient than NE O. DEN ST were a bit fortunate, it was a bit curious to me w/WR Decker returning punts and not Holliday, who though has fumbling issues at times, I still think would be better than Decker. DEN lost their best CB in Q1 and NE their best CB in Q2, but the teams both stuck to their running game and thus the total never had a chance of going over. The ending score was closer than I thought it would be as I thought DEN would end the game w/a 3 score lead. During the game they did have a 3 score lead, but NE rallied a bit and DEN O sputtered in the second half. DEN wins ATS and the winning total is UNDER.
Peyton looks determined as confetti rains down from AFC Championship presentation/celebration.

SF @SEA, FOX, and we got fireworks from the get go (1st play on 1st drive), SF D gets the TO, with a sack, strip, fumble recovery by OLB Smith. SEA D holds and forces a FG. SF ST gets great punt coverage and downs the ball on the 1 yd line. SEA run O comes to life and gets help from officiating w/penalty on SF D, though it was a clean hit by SF S Whitner on SEA TE Willson.  A make up call? SEA OL holding.... SF Bowman gets a sack, add another one for SF D Q1 is over SF leads 3-0.
Q2, SF ST gets lucky recovering a muffed punt by RB James, huge hit by SEA WR Lockette. Costly TD for SF? All Pro Guard Iupati injured (Lknee?). Q2 SF leads 10-0 and at the half SF up 10-3.
Q3 opens up w/SF O and SEA D controls them. SEA RB Lynch gets a big run and TD from 40 yds out. Game is tied 10-10. SF get's big plays from their QB and WR to gain the lead w/a TD, SF up 17-10. SEA ST WR Baldwin huge return, but SEA O bogs down and settles for a FG, score SEA 13-17. SEA D plays inspired and SF O goes 3 and out. SF seems to be a bit luckier than SEA in this game. Officiating is average at best, too many mistakes (they miss a roughing the kicker penalty for 15 yds and 1st down for SF). Q4 begins w/SEA curious non-FG try and waste a timeout, but SEA O gets a TD on 4th down w/huge TD pass and take the lead 20-17. SF QB Kaepernick fumbles and SEA recovers on 10 yd line. SF LB Bowman recovers ball, gets injured (left knee) and officials give the ball to SEA, OUCH! another officiating mistake. SEA goes for it on 4th down, but the beast (Lynch) fumbles and SF gets the balls on the 15 yd line. SF Kaepernick throws an interception, game over? SEA scores a FG extending lead 23-17. Last chance for SF? they go for it on 4th down and get the 1st down. 2 min warning, but again Kapernick causes another TO and SEA gets the win. No love lost between these teams, SEA CB Sherman is talking angry about SF WR Crabtree after sealing  game with a batted ball which his team mate recovers in the end zone. Whew.... what a game....  SEA covers and OVER the total wins (note, later in the week the total climbs to 40, so you may have had a push [a tie] for totals).
Key SF personnel injuries really affected them and SEA was fortunate not to have any as well as officiating going their way at times.



I end up 1-1 ATS and 0-2 for totals, not really good at all this weekend. On to DEN vs SEA in the Super Bowl XVLIII (48). Playoff records 6-3-1 ATS and 7-3 totals which is not bad at all.

2013 - week 20 - Conference finals - picks

The older team angle (based on starters)
** SF, DEN **


The betting angle that WON SU 2 weeks in-a-row
Bet on the higher scoring efficiency O-D rating:

This week:
SF(13%) SEA(17%)
NE(11%) DEN(15%)

** SEA, DEN **

SF won again and is keeping the streak alive from the L3Y of a WildCard team going to SB and winning
SEA D dominated again, but O appears to be ineffective at times

NE dominated early, cruised in Q3, then put it away in Q4
DEN D came out and really dominated, WINDY game, Q4 SD made a run, but 'to little, too late'.


Last week SEA, SF and DEN D goose egg'd their opponent for 3 quarters:
SEA allowed 15pts Q4
SF allowed 10pts Q2
DEN allowed 17pts Q4


This weekend is best of the young QBs and best of the old QBs

Last week NE faced best of the young QB's, this week best of the old QB's

Last week D's of SEA and DEN went against better QB's (NO and SD)




01/19 3:00 PM
301 NE 55 over
302 DEN -4½ ***

DEN CB Harris OUT
NE @home won wk12 34-31

good? weather

After their week 10 bye week, NE only losses were to CAR and MIA on the road by the identical score of 20-24
After their week 9 bye week, DEN only losses were to NE (road) and SD (home) by the scores of 31-34 and 20-27

approx 12-14 possessions, >4 scoring drives

In their wk12 match up, DEN led 24-0 at the half. I suspect something similar will happen, but this time DEN will finish the game in the second half. It must weigh on DEN psyche, they had NE beat, but let them back into the game. This time NE 
won't be able to come back.




01/19 6:30 PM
303 SF 39½ ***
304 SEA -3½ under

rubber match - split series
SEA @home won wk2 29-3
SF @home won wk14 19-17

approx 11-12 possess, 'less than'(why can't I use less than mathematical sign?) 4 scoring drives

Still unsure of who I think will win SU. SEA O does appear to be ineffective at times, even though they have the 'better' QB. I don't think either team will get away from their style of winning, so who's better? It appears SF is better at this time. It will be a strength on strength game. SF O vs SEA D and SF D vs SEA O, ST appears to be a near wash, but I think SF holds an edge w/punt coverage and less miscues. 
The way to beat SEA D may be to run the ball more and not pass so much, ball control (small ball) and wear them out.
The way to beat SF D is to attack the edges, with an occasional deep one thrown in.
Clearly SEA secondary is the best part of their D even w/o Browner, to beat SEA D, SF O needs another player to step up, beyond Gore, Davis, Boldin, Crabtree - I think either McDonald, Celek or Dixon will become more involved.
SEA O, beyond Lynch, what is there really to fear? They already play small ball (too much IMO) SF D has a much more defined plan as far as stopping SEA O. So in the end I'll take SF SU and ATS, with UNDER the total the better betting angle.

If you really wanted to be safe, tease SF and total +6, you would then have SF +9½ and UNDER 45½, this pays around 11-10 (bet $11 win $10)

 If you wanted to include the early afternoon game as a +6pt tease, take DEN +1½ and OVER 49

A 4 pick +6 pt tease, I think pays around 1-2.6 (bet $10 win $26 aka double your money)

 A normal 4 pick pays 1-11 (bet $10 win $110), sometimes this is more, it depends on the sportsbook.

2013 - week 19 - results

NO @SEA, FOX, SEA D goose eggs NO for 3 quarters, then let NO back into the game to make it a bit interesting in Q4, but not really SEA wins 23-15 SU, but does not cover ATS.


IND @NE, CBS, another wet game w/rain. NE run O is dominating, Q2 the game seems to be getting boring w/NE up 21-10 and their ST center has a really high snap, causing their punter to chase ball and he ends up fumbling the ball out of the end zone for a safety. NE D safety and CB interfere with each other interception of QB Luck, IND really lucky. Last 2 min and NE D isn't getting to IND QB Luck, but the ball bounces off their FB (ball appears to behind target) and NE D gets another interception. It's NE QB Brady's turn with 74 seconds to score before the end of half, but NE ends up punting and IND O gets the ball back with 37 sec left. So why run the ball on 1st down w/IND? Really odd since they also used a TO earlier to save time for IND O. At the half NE 21-12. Q3 and IND out scores NE 10-8, so at the end of Q3 NE leads 29-22. NE owns Q4 and wins going away 43-22 on two rushing TDs and w/more IND ints(2) this game is done.
NE CB Dennard starts and ends the game with interceptions.

SF @CAR, FOX, game pretty much goes as expected, CAR does get a nice TD (Q2 scoring for CAR), but for the most part SF D stifles CAR O (goose eggs CAR O Q1, Q3, Q4) and CAR D needs to stop the run better as well as pass. CAR ST played much better than SF ST. SF one glaring weakness. One other note CAR OC should be placed on the carpet for play calling when inside the 5yd line twice and no score.


SD @DEN, CBS, DEN D is playing inspired, it's really interesting CB Bailey is finally playing but is taking on the slot WR, instead of #1 WR. First TO of the game goes SD way, but they can't move the ball and miss a FG(it's really windy). SD punter gets injured, this game is really going DEN way. Another uncharacteristic TO by DEN in the endzone stifles another scoring opportunity for DEN. SD kneels and goes into the half down 14-0. DEN D goose eggs SD for 3 quarters, but Q4 SD scores 17 pts, but it's not enough to overcome DEN 24 pts.



WOW, a perfect weekend 8 for 8 on my picks, perfect ATS, perfect TOTALS, I need to remember this, I think I have, I just didn't blogged it. Now at least it's for all to see, this can be done. You too can win ATS and on Totals during the playoffs.

I'm now 5-2-1 ATS and 7-1 Totals for the playoffs.

2013 - week 19 - Divisional playoffs - picks

Going out on limb, with a few picks, taking NE to cover due to emo win by IND, normal season game I probably wouldn't do so. Taking pts w/NO, I just don't expect the same game they had earlier this season.

The betting angle that won ATS last week
Bet on the older team (based on starters):

This week:
**NO, IND, SF, DEN**

note: there is a 1 yr difference between SD and DEN, SD hold edge w/career starts, all other categories DEN holds edge



The betting angle that won SU last week
Bet on the higher scoring efficiency O-D rating:

This week:
NO(10%) SEA(16%)
IND(7%) NE(11%)
SF(11%) CAR(7%)
SD(9%) DEN(15%)

** SEA, NE, SF, DEN **


The betting angle that won for totals last week
indoor game OVER, nice playing environment
outdoor game UNDER, frigid(WC19), cold and wet, frigid(WC-10)
(WC = Wind Chill)

This week:
all outdoors, UNDER????


Other notables from last week:
in two games the team(NO,SF) that had the ball last scored and won the game NO @PHI and SF @GB
SD D maybe the most underrated this year as CIN O really sputtered at home, putting up goose eggs in Q1, Q3, Q4
IND first half was dismal, dominated by KC, IND second half the most memorable for the weekend




01/11 4:35 PM
111 NO 48 *
112 SEA -8½ **UNDER**

SEA won wk13 @home 34-7
open dome?
I keep thinking give up the pts, but taking the pts - seems to be the prudent thing to do, I'm expecting a close game as NO is playing really well w/O, fairly well w/D and not so bad w/ST
SEA O can be a mystery to me, sometimes playing well and sometimes not, if they stick to their ground game, UNDER the total is the better bet



01/11 8:15 PM
113 IND 53 over
114 NE -7½ *

IND was very lucky to win last weekend vs KC, perhaps the luckiest to win.
NE should be well prep'd to finish the game, even if they attain a two score lead.
All of NE losses this year have been on the road, I don't expect them to lose, but will they cover?
Interesting pick up w/IND acquiring former NE WR Branch, seems to me this will help IND D.
I'm much more undecided w/total, first choosing under, but after some thought picking OVER.



01/12 1:00 PM
115 SF -2 **
116 CAR 43 ***UNDER***

CAR won wk10 on the road 10-9
I'm just thinking SF gains the season series split, CAR O especially on 3rd down appears to be ineffective for most of the game, this time SF D may goose egg CAR O.



01/12 4:40 PM
117 SD 55 *
118 DEN -9½ under

split series, road team wins
wk10 DEN 28-20 
wk15 SD 27-20

an even colder place to play for SD
noted: This year DEN has losses to the remaining AFC PO opponents IND(6pt), NE(3pt), SD(7pt)

A safer bet would be to tease(+6) the side and total, 
bet SD+6 [+15½], Total UNDER+6 [61]
or DEN+6 [-3½], Total UNDER+6 [61]

I'm thinking DEN wins SU, winning by 10+pts maybe tough to do vs SD HC McCoy who is very familiar w/DEN players

2013 - week 18 - Wild Card weekend - results

KC @IND, NBC, costly loss for KC? RB Charles (out Q1), WR Avery (out Q2), CB Flowers (out Q3), RB Davis (out Q4) LB Houston (out Q4) CB Robinson (out Q3?4?) and knicked up WR Hemingway. KC D and O dominates 1st half with a 31-10 lead, stretches it to 38-10, but Luck and Co storm back w/28pts. IND also lost players during the game, notably mid Q4 S Landry w/a concussion. I thought KC should have used McCluster more, as I recall a very tough player as a RB, with explosive speed and moves. IND grabs lead w/TD pass to WR Hilton 45-44 and holds on for the win. WOW IND gets the comeback win, but KC won ATS, surprisingly a very high scoring game w/a total of 89pts easily over the total of 46.5 mid Q3. An epic win to add to the lore of QB Luck heroics. As for KC, blame the loss on injuries and execution/playcalling (scored FG's instead of TD's) on offense cost them a game they should have won.


NO @PHI, NBC, goose egg Q1, NO has two early miscues (1 by Brees), but PHI can't cash in on a TO w/a score. Q2 NO has another TO (by TE Graham), but PHI sputters and NO gets a FG for the first score of the game. Q2 Brees throws another int and this time PHI gets a TD. NO ends the 1st half scoring w/a FG, at half time PHI leads 7-6. NO scores 1st again in the half and lead 13-7, then get another TD running the ball, looks like they'll win. Hmmm late Q3 NO CB Lewis out w/concussion and LB Haralson as well. PHI O comes to life scoring a TD. NO leads 20-14 at start of Q4. PHI gets a FG, score NO 20-17, NO also scores a FG, score NO 23-17. PHI TE Celek injures shoulder? PHI score a TD, takes lead 24-23. NO controls the last possession, eating up over 4 min to score game winning FG and win 26-24. A dome team won on the road in the cold, so much for media hype, why PHI will win. Maybe it just gave NO that much more incentive and focus on game day.


SD @CIN, CBS, SD gets the first score a TD, CIN is being predictable and it appears early on SD has a really good chance to win w/run O and pass O working, ST KR coverage and kick off is less than average but they are SD's only blemish, we'll call it serviceable as long as they don't give up too much field position. Really noticeable is CIN run D playing less than stellar and pass O well... SD QB Rivers is top 5 this year, very near elite at times. CIN ST is about average, punting adequate, coverage ahh?? Q1 SD C Hardwick out, sub Ohrnberger does well. Q2 CIN QB Dalton accuracy issue cropping up (to my eyes), but later on in Q2 is accurate (to TE Gresham) and run O is working. SD LB Teo appears to be a non-factor, just out of position, late reaction? or over pursues IMO. CIN scores a TD, SD run D is suspect. CIN O loosens up, RB fumbles and SD recovers. CIN takes the half time lead w/a FG 10-7, another outdoor low scoring game. Q3 SD scores first w/a TD catch by TE Green and lead 14-10. Another drive stopper w/CIN fumble. RAIN starts to fall, steady drizzle. SD gets a FG 17-10. Another TO w/CIN QB Dalton throwing an interception. Q4 rain and wind pick up, SD scores a FG stretching lead to 20-10. CIN has a bit of hope since SD is not scoring TD's off of TO's, but CIN O execution will need to turn instantly to stellar. SD is in the driver's seat (their players are showing it on the field). CIN QB Dalton, throws another interception, effectively killing CIN chances. SD scores another TD to win 27-10. Another low scoring game, CIN O TO's killed their team.


SF @GB, FOX, it's 5 degrees at kickoff you notice right away that SF is playing the tough guy role vs Mother Nature as GB has much more players w/sleeves than SF. Q1 injuries GB CB Shields out, DE Neal out. SF gets a FG, GB O 3-and-out on their first two drives, SF D dominating. SF run O nearly unstoppable, mixed in w/passing and this O is giving GB D a lot of problems getting a stop. SF QB Kaepernick is wearing a glove on non-throwing hand (left) and gloveless w/right hand. Officiating really favoring GB secondary and SF scores another FG to lead 6-0. Q2 starts and GB has yet to get a first down. GB D gets an interception and O finally gets a first down, 4 more first downs and score a TD. Game ON. SF returns the 'favor' and scores a TD, and leads 13-7. GB gets the last drive of the half and score a FG. At the half SF leads 13-10, SF punts 3x in Q3 and GB doesn't score as well, GB ties the game w/about 5:30 min remaining, but doesn't get a chance to score as SF plays ball control and eats up all the time and kicks a FG w/2sec remaining to win the game (much like NO @PHI).


Hmmm indoor game high scoring, outdoor games low scoring....
The team w/the higher QB rating lost on Saturday and GB lost as well on Sunday.

Which angles won:
SU the team w/higher scoring efficiency differential (at seasons end) won every game: IND, NO, SD, SF
ATS Bet on the older team (based on starters): ** WON **
KC, NO, SD won money the last game ends as a push. Your four pick (11:1 payout) turns into a 3 pick  (6.5:1 payout)

As for my picks results:
1-2-1 ATS, pretty awful...
3-1 Totals, pretty good
note: early posting I made an error w/total results, I checked my spreadsheet and I guess I wasn't so bad after all...

Late notes:  Nearly every road team won their game (KC should have won theirs @IND), this is the best Wild Card parity I've ever seen in the playoffs.

2013 - week 18, playoffs - picks

Early thoughts and more....

Last week GB, SD, PHI played win and they're in, essentially another playoff game, thus this will be their 2nd wk in-a-row where they must win. Keeping your juices flowing isn't so easy two weeks in a row.
This may be a good separate parlay to try (bet against GB, SD, PHI)
**SF, CIN, NO** and maybe IND since they really played hard last week w/starters and KC did not.


Bet on the older team (based on starters):
**KC, NO, SD, SF**
(note: CIN starters had more games last year than SD)


Bet on the older QB:
**KC, NO, SD, GB**


Bet on QB w/end of season higher QB rating:
KC( 89.1) IND( 87.0)
NO(104.7) PHI(119.2)
SD(105.5) CIN( 88.8)
SF( 91.6) GB (104.9)
**KC, PHI, SD, GB**


Bet on the higher QB O-D rating:
KC( 7.6) IND( 3.3)
NO(21)  PHI(18)
SD( 9.2) CIN(15)
SF(16)  GB (-7.5)
**KC, NO, CIN, SF**


Bet on the higher scoring efficiency O-D rating:
KC( 3%) IND(7%)
NO(10%) PHI(3%)
SD( 9%) CIN(5%)
SF(11%) GB (3%)
**IND, NO, SD, SF**



01/04 4:35 PM
101 KC 46½ *
102 IND -2½ over

IND won wk16 23-7 @KC
Was KC playin' possum in wk16? (Knowing they could not improve playoff position at that time). Last week the majority of KC backups played and they almost won the game on the road @SD.
IND starters played hard for their win vs JAC last weekend, so we'll have a clash of philosophies this weekend, play 'em and keep them hot or rest 'em and stay healthy for the final 4 games (if you make it to SB).


01/04 8:10 PM
103 NO 54 OVER
104 PHI -2½ *

total is far more tempting than side, these teams should score in the 30's
NO hasn't played well on the road this season and PHI hasn't played much better at home. NO is the more 'seasoned' team, but PHI O has shown itself to be dynamic and w/ST that can be a field changer. If weather becomes a factor, you really can only look at PHI.



01/05 1:05 PM
105 SD 47 under
106 CIN -7 ***

CIN won wk13 17-10 @SD
It's hard to pick SD. SD QB Rivers is playing his best ball since ?? at least several seasons ago, but they couldn't dominate KC backups last weekend and needed OT and a non-called penalty by referees in regulation that probably cost PIT a playoff spot. CIN has been one and done for the past two years. Looks like they get over a hump this year (just like ATL last year).


01/05 4:40 PM
107 SF -3 *
108 GB 48 under

SF won wk1 34-28 @home
GB won last weekend often going for it on 4th down. Good fortune follow the bold and brave. I don't think GB OL will hold up well vs SF DL and GB QB Rodgers may need to endure multiple sacks to have a chance at winning.

2013 - week 17 - results

CAR @ATL, FOX, interesting as far as ATL playing much better, but CAR D comes thru and gets a TO for a score, but CAR O still sputters on 3rd down. Just barely watched this game.
1/1 update: I forgot to mention that ATL TE Gonzales final home game, SU loss, ATS win. This ATS trend is impressive.

BAL @CIN, CBS, CIN in no longer lil' bro to BAL. Flacco can't hit deep ball with any consistency and couldn't score TD's off of two CIN TO's. This really stood out FG's won't cut it vs CIN and an O that continued to attack during the game. It's odd how BAL run O did fairly well, but they didn't stick with it or the timing of play calls was off IMO

GB @CHI, FOX, GB QB Rodgers looks a bit rusty, CHI QB Cutler doesn't look much better and again GB w/Rodgers starting has CHI 'number' as they gained the win, with 'fortune favoring the bold and brave'. GB went for it on 4th downs several times during the game and changed their fortune.

DEN @OAK, CBS, didn't watch, but I did catch the end of the KC @SD game, which they must have switched over due to a boring game w/Manning & Co. KC QB Daniels not bad, but what's amazing is that the majority of KC backups are playing and they could've won this game vs SD. I don't think SD will be as fortunate @CIN next week

PHI @DAL, SNF, flex'd game, PHI O just makes it tough on an opponents D, DAL QB Orton played about as expected, it's TE Witten and RB Murray who had mental miscues, that cost DAL on drives

End of season results: 2 games below .500 ATS, 4 games above .500 for totals. Not bad this season, considering the early season trials (some teams showed great promise, but early wins weren't there [CAR] and others were just an early season mirage [HOU]) and selling home, moving into new place from weeks 8 thru 14 or so, losing all that time to watch games really made a difference. I still am 'settling in' and just finding the time to update football games and such, well... I'm at times a day or two behind the curve...

2013 - week 17 - Results

I like this at MMQB

http://mmqb.si.com/2013/12/27/philadelphia-eagles-defense-notes/3/

What I noticed were the stats, far superior to any I've seen on any other site. I wonder if they reveal these stats every week. In particular I really noticed the DL/DE stats.

I also like the weekly team ranking of the D's and the bottom 10 and top 10, made me rethink my picks, I did watch a few w/game rewind, but due to xmas. I spent far less time going over games.

I picked out things like DAL won despite DAL D being ranked 28th vs WAS last week. DET D had a good week vs NYG, so it's really on their O for the loss. PIT gets to play CLE this week, perhaps another high scoring game?

I also noticed the weather for the weekend, I may need to change a few games to UNDER due to expected rain (@NYG, @PIT, @NE, and maybe @CIN), snow (@CHI)

2013 - week 17 - picks

Playoff positions up for grabs w/a couple of elimination games, PHI @DAL, GB @CHI
KC seems to be the only team w/starters that may be rested for week 17

12/29 1:00 PM
301 CAR -6½ *UNDER
302 ATL 46 *

CAR won wk9 34-10
CAR WR Smith OUT
ATL DT Peters OUT
Taking a chance w/the points, CAR D is formidable, but their O may sputter w/o WR Smith, the problem for ATL will be stopping run w/o DT Peters
CAR w/win wins NFC S and 1st rd bye
ATL ?emo? loss @SF
ATL TE Gonzales final home game



12/29 4:25 PM
303 GB -3 under
304 CHI 51½ *

CHI won wk9 27-20
GB LB Mathews OUT
GB RB Lacy ?OUT?
I can't give GB much hope w/o their star QB Rodgers. This is for the NFC North crown, looks like CHI is playoff bound.
12/26 update: GB QB Rodgers starts
even w/GB QB Rodgers back, GB D is still an issue


12/29 1:00 PM
305 HOU 44½ under?
306 TEN -7 ***

HOU won wk2 30-24
HOU RCB Joseph OUT
I don't think HOU will be as interested in this game as much as TEN will be, since TEN is 0-3 vs HOU (past 2 seasons), HOU does have their 0-12 streak SU, but this is a division game and I believe the split will occur for the series.
after bye TEN @home totals>56+pts
after bye HOU road totals=51,47,28
HOU D will give up at least 24pts, maybe as much as 31pts
TEN 2nd division game are lower scoring totals=36,36(both road)



12/29 1:00 PM
307 CLE 44 over?
308 PIT -7 *

PIT won wk12 27-11
PIT WR Sanders ?OUT?
PIT depth?
it's hard to envision CLE winning, PIT is just one of those teams that CLE does not have a good record 2-18 SU vs PIT, so though -7 is larger than the standard -3 at home, PIT should be favored by at least a TD, perhaps more


12/29 1:00 PM
309 WAS 46 *
310 NYG -3½ under

NYG won wk13 24-17
WAS LB Orakpo ?OUT?


12/29 1:00 PM
311 BAL 44½ under
312 CIN -6 *

BAL won wk10 20-17
this season if CIN leads or ties @half they have won game, if they are behind they have won only once SU
BAL is very similar to CIN if they are behind at half they have won only twice, if they are ahead or tied 6-2 SU



12/29 1:00 PM
313 JAC 45½ UNDER
314 IND -11½ *?

IND won wk4 37-3
I expect IND to win @home, w/losses @home to MIA and STL will IND cover?
Interestingly enough JAC is 4-0 ATS vs HOU and TEN, 0-1 vs IND


12/29 8:30 PM
315 PHI -6½ ****
316 DAL 52½ under?

DAL QB Orton starts
DAL WR Bryant back? OUT?
DAL won wk7 17-3
This is for the NFC East crown, DAL will need more than luck at home.



12/29 1:00 PM
317 NYJ 41 *
318 MIA -6½ over?

MIA snap count in question
MIA won wk13 23-3


12/29 1:00 PM
319 DET 52 *
320 MIN -3 *under

DET won wk1 34-24
MIN RB Peterson OUT
12/27 update: changed pick from MIN/Under to DET/Under


12/29 4:25 PM
321 BUF 47 under
322 NE -9½ *

NE won wk1 23-21
BUF coming off goosing MIA last weekend, NE is 19-1 vs BUF
Will NE cover?
NE does have incentive to win a first round bye


12/29 4:25 PM
323 TB 47 under
324 NO -12½ *

NO won wk2 16-14
NO SS Harper starts
Schiano has yet to win vs Payton, I want to believe in the split, but since the first game was at the start of the season, NO w/playoff incentives should win, will they cover?



12/29 4:25 PM
325 DEN -12 *
326 OAK 53 *under*

DEN won wk3 37-21
OAK QB Pryor starts
Two scores, will DEN cover? OAK D has had recent issues, so it's likely a high score for DEN O, but what about OAK O? Will OAK O score more than 14pts? DEN could score 40pts, but it's not likely. 
** DEN has won AFC West and either #1 or #2 seed **
DEN does have incentive to play home games thru playoffs.



12/29 4:25 PM
327 SF -1½ *UNDER
328 ARI 42½ *

SF won wk6 32-20
normally I'd go with split but SF needs to win to hold onto #5 seed and play either CHI or GB
12/27 update: changed pick from SF/UNDER to ARI/UNDER


12/29 4:25 PM
329 KC 45 *under
330 SD -9½ *

SD won wk12 41-38
SD seems to have KC's number having won the past 3 games. KC can't really improve playoff position, but KC had a bad loss last week. 
KC resting players? QB Smith? RB Charles?
Since this is a late game, if BAL and MIA lose in their early Sunday matchups SD will control their playoff destiny with a win.



12/29 4:25 PM
331 STL 43 **UNDER**
332 SEA -10½ *

SEA won wk8 14-9
STL LT Long OUT
Thought about taking pts, but SEA lost last weekend to division rival ARI. I don't believe they'll lose two in a row, though they may not cover the double digit spread. They should be up for this game and are 15-2 vs STL. SEA does have incentive to play home games thru playoffs.

2013 - week 16 - results

NO @CAR, FOX, it's raining, sometimes it's just drenching field and stadium, surprisingly at times NO is able to run the ball vs CAR D. CAR O plays well in spots, most of the time not so good, but when it counts with the game's outcome on the line CAR O grabs the win. It's not to be NO year, CAR has completed their ascension this year to be NFC S champs.

DEN @HOU, oh yeah the CBS game, just a bore, HOU has been cooked, their last great hurrah was vs NE in week 13 when they lost by 3, since then their appears to be gas in the tank. These past two weeks they've lost be 3 scores.

NE @BAL, surprisingly one sided game for the visitor, BAL is toast

CHI @PHI, SNF, PHI came out and just dominated, CHI had no real answer even with the return of LB Briggs.

Other games of note, I should have taken IND as this was a sandwich game for KC, (prior week[week 15] and after week [week 17] games are division games for KC), also w/DEN winning at HOU, (as expected) KC could not improve it's play off position.

With the recent retirement announcements of WAS LB Fletcher and JAC C Meester, I picked on their final home games. The well respected player angle did work ATS, but not SU as WAS lost to DAL and JAC lost to TEN. We'll see about next week as well.

All in all, I could've done better ATS, but I hesitated in taking IND and was surprised by NYJ, NYG, CIN and ATL. I did fairly well for totals, but again I think I could've done better. One other thing of note were the warm DEC games @WAS, @PHI, @NYJ, @BAL. These games began in the 60's degree range, highly unusual.

2013 - week 16 - results

2013 - week 16 - picks

things of note on top - streaks, other notables
*** no numbers for PIT @GB *** awaiting update
12/20 update: numbers posted

NYJ L2Y finish season 0-3
now 0-1

NE W/L 17-2 SU in DEC

HOU 0-12 SU streak

Since 1996, TEAMs which need a December to remember

Team W-L Pct. 
DET 17-52 .246  L
CLE 16-44 .267 L
OAK 24-49 .329 L
DAL 28-41 .406 L
BUF 29-42 .408 L 

***DEC week 1 all lost SU***


Team W-L Pct.
DET 17-53 .243  L
CLE 16-44 .262 L
OAK 24-50 .324 L
DAL 28-42 .400 L
BUF 29-43 .403  W

***DEC week 2 ONLY BUF won, all others lost***


Team W-L Pct.
DET  17-54 .239 ?
CLE 16-45 .262 ?
OAK 24-51 .320 ?
DAL 28-43 .394 ?
BUF 30-43 .411 ?

***DEC week 3 ?***



GB 14-3-1 vs division SU
this week, NONE

'SEA hangover' teams the week after playing SEA 
4-8-1 SU, 5-8 ATS
this week, NYG

SEA @home 14-0 SU
this week, vs ARI


NFC East 13-24 SU vs non-division opponents
this week, CHI @PHI, NYG @DET


TEAMS w/10 days rest 
15-17 SU
13-19 ATS
W (BAL,DEN,NYJ,NE,KC,SF,STL,NYG,ARI,SEA*,CAR,IND,ATL,GB*,BAL*) 
L [PHI,BUF,CLE,CHI,TB**,CIN,MIA,WAS,MIN,TEN,NO,DET,OAK,DAL,PIT,HOU,JAC]
* indicates lost ATS
** indicates won ATS
TEAMS w/10 days rest (10Dr)
this week, SD, DEN

*************************************************************************

12/22 1:00 PM
101 MIA -3 ***
102 BUF 43 under

BUF won wk7 23-21
game blacked out locally
BUF QB Lewis starts (won wk7, 1-2 as starter this yr)
BUF WR Johnson OUT
BUF WR Graham starts?


12/22 1:00 PM
103 NO 46 under
104 CAR -3 ***

NO won wk14 13-31
NO LT Armstead starts (rookie)
NO K ?
CAR DE Johnson appears to be playing hurt since coming off injury


12/22 1:00 PM
105 DAL -3 under
106 WAS 53 ***

DAL won wk6 16-31
WAS LB Fletcher last home game 
(99% will retire endorses HC Shananhan)


12/22 1:00 PM
107 TB 43 under
108 STL -5 ***

LY STL won 28-13 @TB
TB maybe vulnerable on ST due to WR Shepard OUT
STL run O to test TB run D
if TB O continues w/check downs throws on 3rd and long, STL should win easily


12/22 8:30 PM
109 CHI 56 over
110 PHI -3 *



12/22 1:00 PM
111 CLE 41 *?*
112 NYJ -2 *OVER*

CLE CB Haden OUT?
CLE TE Jordan OUT?
initially w/CLE injuries, I really was thinking NYJ, but I watched game rewind of NYJ and on O, they don't have much of a passing game. They'll need to win w/run O and D as well as ST. I just don't think NYJ is good enough at the skill positions to win. CLE is vastly underestimated by media and play well w/QB Campbell. I expect NYJ 2ndary to have a tough time and their ST will have miscues along w/O to give CLE the game.


12/22 1:00 PM
113 IND 44 OVER
114 KC -6½ *

LY IND won 20-13 @KC
sandwich game for KC, take pts?


12/22 1:00 PM
115 MIN 49 *
116 CIN -7 over



12/22 1:00 PM
117 DEN -10½ ***
118 HOU 52½ over?

DEN 10Dr
HOU RB Johnson starts (rookie)
HOU QB Schaub starts


12/22 1:00 PM
119 TEN -5 **OVER**
120 JAC 45 ***

JAC won wk10 29-27
JAC C Meester last home game
(will retire at end of season)
TEN nickel Sensabaugh OUT


12/22 4:05 PM
121 ARI 45 under
122 SEA -10 *

ARI WR Fitzgerald OUT?
SEA won wk7 34-22


12/22 4:05 PM
123 NYG 50½ under
124 DET -9½ *

will DET cover?


12/22 4:25 PM
125 OAK 51½ OVER
126 SD -10 ***

OAK won wk5 17-27
SD 10Dr


12/22 4:25 PM
127 PIT 45 **?
128 GB -2½ OVER

PIT LB Woodley OUT


12/22 4:25 PM
129 NE 45 over
130 BAL -1½ *

BAL win out and div champs
LY BAL won 30-31 vs NE


12/23 8:40 PM
131 ATL 45 UNDER
132 SF -12½ ****


ATL LB Weatherspoon OUT?
It's tough to take the points.
ATL in hindsight should've kept DE Abraham and CB Grimes
they are both doing well w/their new teams (ARI and MIA) this season.
Such key personnel decisions have made the rest of ATL personnel decisions questionable at best. Horrible at worst.
Will this be a goose egg game for ATL O, SF D?

2013 - week 15 - results

Late breaking news of some significance or not??
CHI QB Cutler to start, I'm just to lazy to change pick to CLE, but I'm tempted.
HOU practice w/referees, back to the basics, nice to see, since penalties have killed HOU chances one to many times this season.

TNF, SD @DEN, DEN starts out w/a TD again, really nice, but they cool off until the end when they heat up again. Many will point to DEN D as the "faulty part", but SD D really came on in Q2 and Q3. SD w/their O play really well and ST doing a decent job (well except for fumble) won this game with a team effort. Note: I think we're seeing more hurdles than ever, possibly due to emphasis on tackling rules in NFL.
I really point to SD D as being a key part of the win as UNDER the total won the money. SD D forced DEN O to punt on every possession in Q2 and Q3. The AFC S showed the way to beat Manning and Co. and the name of the game is called "keep away". Run the ball, win ToP (Time of possession) and force Manning to march down the field, nothing deep.
DEN D gets burned again by a premier QB (prior Brady) a pattern? Their other loss is to IND w/QB Luck and to me Luck is that good as long as he has a WR that can catch the ball.
DEN ST also made key errors in Q2 and Q3, fielding the ball inside the 10 in Q2 (should've just let the ball go and take the chance it bounces into the endzone for a touchback) and the penalty on 4th down which gave the ball back to SD. SD O proceeded to eat up more time and finally punted at mid-field.

FOX, SEA @NYG, I barely glanced at this game, and I did not watch...

CBS, NE @MIA, really interesting, MIA pulls out the win, despite a ST snapping snafu to the holder, he appears to be not ready or expecting the snap. One thing interesting for NE during the game was moving LG Mankins to LT, but it was not to be their day as the home team got the split in their series w/MIA. MIA D in particular even after losing DT Soliai still played really well.

FOX, GB @DAL, I just kept this up in the background, but did lots of household things that needed to be done, another why watch this game? I did hear Aikman w/an interesting comment w/Romo having all the time in world as GB D can't get pressure, so a lot of Aikman misses go back to accuracy issues.
OH MY, a second half to add to the lore of GB and the dismantling of 'boys, what a stunner. Just poor play calling IMO. DAL should have run the ball more, eat clock and thus GB would never have the chance to complete the comeback, but DAL outsmarted themselves again.

On this Sunday, home dog MIN gets a nice upset of PHI (odd how PHI chose not to do traditional KO, instead they chose to squib it and thus starting drives field position was an early x-mas gift from PHI to MIN, the other noticeable oddity was PHI RB McCoy had only eight carries, just two a quarter or maybe once a drive) and it appears STL at home will do the same to NO (just like '11 season, history repeats itself).


SNF, CIN @PIT, ouch! PIT comes out on fire, hits CIN in the mouth and they wilt, PIT ST really took it to CIN ST and KO'd CIN P Huber as well. I had expected something a little closer, but CIN has the little bro' mentality or that's what the announcer said (I think or as best as I can recall, lol).

I'm a bit late posting results, just plain forgot to do so. One thing that I've noticed for this past weekend - the NFC East was 0-fer SU/ATS. I did ok, just above .500 ATS and a break even .500 for totals

2013 - week 15 - results

2013 - week 15 - picks

NYJ L2Y finish season 0-3

NE W/L 17-1 SU in DEC,

HOU 0-11 SU streak

Since 1996, TEAMs which need a December to remember

Team W-L Pct. 
DET 17-52 .246  L
CLE 16-44 .267 L
OAK 24-49 .329 L
DAL 28-41 .406 L
BUF 29-42 .408 L 

all lost SU last weekend, drop that percentage even more



GB 14-3-1 vs division SU
this week, NONE

'SEA hangover' teams the week after playing SEA 
3-8-1 SU, 4-8 ATS
this week, SF

SEA @home 14-0 SU
this week, NONE


NFC East 13-20 SU vs non-division opponents
this week, WAS @ATL, SEA @NYG, PHI @MIN, GB @DAL


TEAMS w/10 days rest 
15-15 SU
13-17 ATS
W (BAL,DEN,NYJ,NE,KC,SF,STL,NYG,ARI,SEA*,CAR,IND,ATL,GB*,BAL*) 
L [PHI,BUF,CLE,CHI,TB**,CIN,MIA,WAS,MIN,TEN,NO,DET,OAK,DAL,PIT]
* indicates lost ATS
** indicates won ATS
TEAMS w/10 days rest (10Dr)
this week, HOU, JAC




12/15 1:00 PM
305 WAS 51 over?
306 ATL -6 **

ATL FS DeCoud ?OUT?
ATL has a running game, D is decent, O is suspect
ST advantage ATL?
ATL OC Koetter interviewing for college HC
WAS QB Cousins starts
ATL should win, but will they cover?


12/15 1:00 PM
307 SF -5½ *
308 TB 41 under



12/15 4:25 PM
309 ARI -3 ***
310 TEN 41½ over

ARI FS Mathieu OUT
TEN QB Fitzpatrick has accuracy issues w/o TE Walker in the line up. 
TEN D still plays fairly well, it's their O that will sputter for a half and that means they will likely lose this home game vs an ARI D that is playing really well and an O that can move the ball. 
TEN ST returns are better, but coverage is lacking, advantage ARI
This game means more to ARI than to TEN for the playoffs, but TEN coaching staff and players have been put on 'notice', they'll be playing to keep their jobs this weekend.


12/15 4:25 PM
311 NO -5½ *
312 STL 48 under



12/15 1:00 PM
313 SEA -7 *
314 NYG 41 over

SEA SLB Wright OUT


12/15 1:00 PM
315 CHI 43 *
316 CLE -2½ ****OVER****

CLE QB Campbell starts, the team believes



12/15 1:00 PM
317 HOU 45½ **
318 IND -6 under

HOU 10Dr
IND won wk09 27-24


12/15 1:00 PM
319 BUF -1½ over
320 JAC 43 ***

BUF last week post game led by players
JAC 10Dr


12/15 1:00 PM
321 NE -2½ over
322 MIA 45½ *

NE TE Gronkowski OUT
NE won wk8 27-17


12/15 1:00 PM
323 PHI -4½ *
324 MIN 51½ UNDER?

MIN RB Peterson OUT


12/15 4:05 PM
325 NYJ 41 UNDER
326 CAR -10½ *

NYJ CB Cromartie OUT?
CAR should win, will they cover?

12/15 4:05 PM
327 KC -4 *
328 OAK 41 OVER



12/15 4:25 PM
329 GB 48½ under
330 DAL -7 *

GB a FG team, until TDs are more prevalent and QB Flynn acquires a much better touch in RZ


12/15 8:30 PM
331 CIN -3 *OVER*
332 PIT 40½ *

CIN LCB Newman OUT
CIN won wk2 20-10


12/16 8:40 PM
333 BAL 48½ *
334 DET -6 over

DET RB Bush D2D(Day-to-Day)

2013 - week 15 - Thursday - picks

I'm thinking.... SD/Over combo

12/12 8:25 PM
301 SD 55 *
302 DEN -10½ over

DEN WR Welker OUT
DEN won wk 10 28-20

2013 - week 15 - GRIDs

QB Rating:

2013 - week 15 - GRID - QB rating

for clarity - 
NE 8.6, MIA 8.4
CIN 11, PIT 10
BAL -3.8, CLE -2.1
SD 7.1, KC 5.9



Team scoring efficiency:

2013 - week 15 - GRID - efficiency

The differences:
AFC North, PIT is ahead of BAL w/QB rating, but behind with scoring efficiency
AFC South, IND and TEN have flip flopped positions as well
NFC North, CHI is tops in their division w/QB rating and is 2nd w/scoring efficiency, DET is 2nd w/QB rating and is 3rd w/scoring efficiency, GB is 3rd w/QB rating and is 1st w/scoring efficiency.

So for the playoffs the NFC North is likely to be represented by CHI. I'm expecting a DET collapse and GB just doesn't have enough w/o QB Rogers.

IND who has backdoored (did not win their game) their way into their division championship this past weekend will be the easiest of home field opponents for either MIA, BAL or KC.

BAL is in the drivers seat for #6 seed in the AFC, but MIA has been playing well these past three games and winning in the cold (sub freezing and snow) at PIT last weekend, really puts them on my radar. BAL was a bit lucky last weekend vs MIN, maybe their luck holds thru DEC, if not MIA is in.

FYI:
Again these are cumulative totals for the season and are derived from the O performance subtracted from the D performance to arrive at a number that seems to represent the strength of the team.

For QB rating, I take each games QB rating and subtract one from the other to arrive at a number. If two or more QBs played during the game I take their total number. You'll find the QB ratings in the GameBook.pdf file available for download after each game at nfl.com

For Team Scoring Efficiency, I take each drive/possession and it's outcome and divide the scoring drives from the total number of possessions. I do take into account punt returns and kick returns for TD as scoring drives/possessions. From my point of view each possession by a team is an opportunity to score.
I then take O possession/performance and subtract from D possession/performance to arrive at a number that seems to indicate the strength of that team. The higher the positive percentage the better the team is at scoring and winning games.

Perhaps later on I may institute a more recent indicator covering the past 4 weeks, rather than just a season long cumulative total which can be deceptive while reviewing a teams recent performance.