Wednesday, January 15, 2014

2013 - week 20 - Conference finals - picks

The older team angle (based on starters)
** SF, DEN **

The betting angle that WON SU 2 weeks in-a-row
Bet on the higher scoring efficiency O-D rating:

This week:
SF(13%) SEA(17%)
NE(11%) DEN(15%)

** SEA, DEN **

SF won again and is keeping the streak alive from the L3Y of a WildCard team going to SB and winning
SEA D dominated again, but O appears to be ineffective at times

NE dominated early, cruised in Q3, then put it away in Q4
DEN D came out and really dominated, WINDY game, Q4 SD made a run, but 'to little, too late'.

Last week SEA, SF and DEN D goose egg'd their opponent for 3 quarters:
SEA allowed 15pts Q4
SF allowed 10pts Q2
DEN allowed 17pts Q4

This weekend is best of the young QBs and best of the old QBs

Last week NE faced best of the young QB's, this week best of the old QB's

Last week D's of SEA and DEN went against better QB's (NO and SD)

01/19 3:00 PM
301 NE 55 over
302 DEN -4½ ***

NE @home won wk12 34-31

good? weather

After their week 10 bye week, NE only losses were to CAR and MIA on the road by the identical score of 20-24
After their week 9 bye week, DEN only losses were to NE (road) and SD (home) by the scores of 31-34 and 20-27

approx 12-14 possessions, >4 scoring drives

In their wk12 match up, DEN led 24-0 at the half. I suspect something similar will happen, but this time DEN will finish the game in the second half. It must weigh on DEN psyche, they had NE beat, but let them back into the game. This time NE 
won't be able to come back.

01/19 6:30 PM
303 SF 39½ ***
304 SEA -3½ under

rubber match - split series
SEA @home won wk2 29-3
SF @home won wk14 19-17

approx 11-12 possess, 'less than'(why can't I use less than mathematical sign?) 4 scoring drives

Still unsure of who I think will win SU. SEA O does appear to be ineffective at times, even though they have the 'better' QB. I don't think either team will get away from their style of winning, so who's better? It appears SF is better at this time. It will be a strength on strength game. SF O vs SEA D and SF D vs SEA O, ST appears to be a near wash, but I think SF holds an edge w/punt coverage and less miscues. 
The way to beat SEA D may be to run the ball more and not pass so much, ball control (small ball) and wear them out.
The way to beat SF D is to attack the edges, with an occasional deep one thrown in.
Clearly SEA secondary is the best part of their D even w/o Browner, to beat SEA D, SF O needs another player to step up, beyond Gore, Davis, Boldin, Crabtree - I think either McDonald, Celek or Dixon will become more involved.
SEA O, beyond Lynch, what is there really to fear? They already play small ball (too much IMO) SF D has a much more defined plan as far as stopping SEA O. So in the end I'll take SF SU and ATS, with UNDER the total the better betting angle.

If you really wanted to be safe, tease SF and total +6, you would then have SF +9½ and UNDER 45½, this pays around 11-10 (bet $11 win $10)

 If you wanted to include the early afternoon game as a +6pt tease, take DEN +1½ and OVER 49

A 4 pick +6 pt tease, I think pays around 1-2.6 (bet $10 win $26 aka double your money)

 A normal 4 pick pays 1-11 (bet $10 win $110), sometimes this is more, it depends on the sportsbook.

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