Monday, January 20, 2014

2013 - week 21 - Super Bowl picks

The betting angle that WON SU 3 weeks in-a-row
Bet on the higher scoring efficiency O-D rating:

This week:
SEA(17%) DEN(17%)

note: from last week SEA +0% (no gain), DEN +2% gain

DEN designated home, we should review both teams as road teams

O-D scoring efficiency
SEA 11% (@home 25%)
DEN 13% (@home 27%)

DEN holds an edge on the road and at home as well

QB rtgs
DEN 22.175 SEA 40.7125
SEA 26.2375 DEN 29.8875
note: the much larger difference for SEA (14) as compared to DEN (7)
performance wise this appears to indicate an advantage for DEN

02/02 6:30 PM
101 SEA 48 UNDER
102 DEN -2½ **

Everyone will instantly recognize the match up of #1's DEN O vs SEA D, but how many are really analyzing the match up of 


ST coverage and return teams need to be recognized as well.
SEA holds an edge w/KO coverage, they are just faster and stronger w/opponents who dare to take it out of the end zone often not reaching the 20 yd line (their opponent should have kneeled and taken the touchback)

SEA holds an edge w/KO return as I wonder if DEN will allow Holliday to return KOs

DEN holds an edge w/punt coverage, their punter Colquitt has been exceptional at times, often dropping the ball inside the 10 yd line w/coverage team downing the ball inside the 5 yd line

SEA holds an edge w/punt return, I just don't like DEN WR Decker as the PR, if he's ON he's OK, if he's OFF he can be bad. DEN really should just let Holliday be the PR

NO edge between kickers as they are both capable of kicking in bad field conditions, weather and making long FGs.

TV time outs plays a part in the total for the SuperBowl. TV timeouts extend the game often giving offenses an extended view of their opponents D and giving offenses to change it up and attack in the last 2 min of Q2. Still I chose the under due to SEA O relying on their run game and short passing to play keep away from Manning and Co. This really is the only proven method of beating DEN QB Manning. Lessen his opportunities w/the ball as Manning does not make many mistakes.

If SEA wins, it'll be more of a team effort than any one individual, though there will likely be standout performances. SEA has probably the 2nd best young QB (I rate IND QB Luck higher). SEA uses a bruising run game, stifling D and an opportunistic ST play to win games. SEA is not built to come from behind by more than two scores.

If DEN wins, it's likely they get the lead and don't relinquish it. Everyone knows of their record setting O, but their D is not so shabby itself and their ST can be exceptional.

The one factor that may change my mind, the weather and if a starter is replaced due to whatever happens from now until game day. I may then update my choices.

1/21 more thoughts:
Everyone knows the way to beat Manning and Co. is to play keep away. A sound running game and good play calling in the red zone will go a long way for SEA to beat DEN. SEA has the requisite D to make it tough on any QB in the NFL, thus to beat their D, a 'short' game is required as well, mixing in runs with short quick throws is what Manning is best at doing. I'm relying on Manning and Co. overall greater experience at playing the NFL game. I think Manning and Co. will play the short, quick game until they get a lead, where they will then toss a long one or two, just to keep SEA D 'honest'.

SEA QB Wilson maybe forced to throw the ball more often on than they would like as DEN run D has played well these last two games. If so, my best guess SEA goes as Wilson goes, if he fails to gain yardage on long distance downs, this game could be a one sided affair.

It's strength vs strength and weakness vs weakness, I just view SEA weakness on passing downs hard to ignore. If SEA ST steps up and takes over the game, this will at least keep it close for a bit, but ultimately, I see far more scenarios that work for DEN than for SEA. Their will probably be somewhere between 8 and 10 possession in the game by both teams, maximizing these possessions has been more of DEN forte this season than SEA, it'll take TDs to win game as FG's just won't cut it.

SEA may have an emo edge for this game, but how long will it last? If they can't keep pace w/DEN, then an emo edge won't last that long even for a well rested team.

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