Monday, July 31, 2006

Packer's Training camp blog I stumbled across this url from another site and I like it

Sunday, July 30, 2006

Hey, why do the research when someone else has? The preseason is in full bloom and has an amazing amount of time to check stats and correlate to an edge. shows preseason records from '97-'05
but you could skip it all and check their recommendations

and for the regular season they have free tools which will come in handy when combined w/divine insight ....

I decided to join their Forum and spotted these comments (you may need to register "free" to read link) it details effect of preseason wins/losses on Season Over/Under totals

263/264 CHI @SF 8/11

I noticed C Newberry and QB Dilfer will be playing together, SF +2.5 is the current spread, QB Hill also has NFLE experience (named Offensive Player of the Week 2x '03) and QB Palmer (xNYG) Looks like to me a big time upgrade in the experience department. CHI also upgraded their QB rotation(Grossman, Griese, Orton, BJ Symons), so 34.5 is a bit low. CHI does have depth for most of their D positions so I guess I'm waffling on total. CHI holds the edge w/ST, FG, KO and punting (their undrafted kicker and punter are more than decent). It'll be a late (last) game I hope to see it on NFL network. Home dogs are always interesting to look at and this game is very interesting....

Thursday, July 27, 2006

and the rankings begin

The Football Outsiders crew have begun posting their ranking of positions by teams. QB's OL's WR's & TE's RB's

So we have the O and I expect the D will come along soon.

You could review the QB's and pick up who has a better crop of QB's after their starter and choose a side w/preseason football around the corner. It's just a strategy, but one that is easily overruled by what the coach says, "rules".

Sunday, July 23, 2006

Preseason strategies

Normally, I'll place an occasional bet on preseason games. The edge that I'm looking for is how will the head coaches approach the game.

Ideally you'd have both coaches announcing how long they'll play their starters for the game, which is normally a series, a quarter, a half or even the majority of the game. The reality is you might hear/read about a team's coach strategy, regimen, or personnel playing. You won't know about both teams approach and the coaches change their mind on the fly or at the half.

Their have been instances when a coach will try to win each preseason game. You'll see this normally w/new coaches w/new players that need "seasoning". With ten "new HC's" (some on their second/third team as HC) this is likely to happen. The most likely candidates are (in no particular order) GB-McCarthy, HOU-Kubiak, MIN-Childress, NO-Payton, NYJ-Mangini, and STL-Linehan.
BUF-Jauron, DET-Marinelli, KC-Edwards, OAK-Shell are much older and conservative coaches in my mind (you could put Kubiak in this group, but I had to place him somewhere and w/a new OC and OL?'s I leaned toward winning preseason games) and will more likely do grouping of personnel and evaluate on a more conservative scale.

Another clue that may give me an edge is the quality of the backups. If the backups could start on another team and they play the majority of the game, they are more likely to beat the other teams backups.

This year the Ravens have acquired several ST players from other teams and appear to be a much more veteran unit than most teams. I believe McNair will be playing longer than a series or two to have him and his WR's in sync prior to the regular season and they competition @safety.

Dallas has ?'s along OL and QB Drew Henson played very well in NFL Europe, so look for OL to play longer together and w/a good backup QB may be on the plus side of the ledger.

Another stategy is to rate the 3rd string QB's and find out how long will they play? Early in the preseason, they'll account for at least a half, w/some teams 3 quarters and w/a few almost the whole game. Usually the seasoned veterans play better than the new rookie.
Bears appear to have a veteran roster of QB's

I've noticed that blitz packages are appearing during preseason. In the past this was not the case, but this seems to be occuring much more often due to the DC wanting to test the effectiveness of his scheme/grouping vs a known OC package/scheme. This will keep the total score lower than normal (say 38? during the regular season the norm is in the low 40's).
Raiders may fit this build w/a very young secondary.

I'd like to test the theory that if the same teams will meet in the regular season, they will play a more vanilla game and thus keep the total low again, but I don't have the time (day job, whew).

I like to see a coach upset after a game, even in the preseason, the thought is the players will play much better the next game after having a disappointing outing and give you a better than even chance in covering the spread for the upcoming game.

Caution: at this time, the site doesn't have the updated player rosters, even the official team sites are behind in updating their rosters. You'd have a much easier time purchasing a football magazine such as Phil Steele's Pro Football scorebook or his Power Sweep newsletter for a much more accurate view of preseason rosters

Update: I've read that TEN HC Fisher will emphasize the runnin' game and w/a plethora of RB's this may make a more interesting preseason. Run the ball more means less time for other team to score and if they can score runnin' the ball this will bode very well for this team or is it just a ploy to protect QB's? You can count on DEN as well w/their group of RB's and to a lesser extent CHI and IND.

NYJ will have QB's in a tizzy, ATL w/DT/NT emphasis and kicker's duel. I wonder will SD have QB Rivers playing several series from the first game? PHI will also have their DL playing alot and NE maybe looking for opportunities to test their FG unit as well.

I started listening to their radio show around 99-00 season, back then they were known by another name but for the life of me I can't remember it. Anyway, websites changes, handicappers come and go, but the stalwarts remain and evolve.
If you missed their local morning daily show (M-F, 1460AM in 'vegas) you could always download it from their website They've gone coast to coast w/agreements to broadcast in several markets a couple of years ago and now they're on satellite radio (I can't remember which one or if they're on both).

Their blogs is indispensible, just full of betting angles. After listening to their "picks" on side/total they're leaning toward, you can almost guess what their 20 star play will be for the day. If you don't have time to handicap yourself, you ought to try out their packages, just remember no one can win all their picks, but when these 'cappers get hot, you can go weeks w/o a miss, which of course translates to $$$$. Money management is always the key when betting on sports, bet single picks (team/game) consistently w/the same amount is an easy way to start, then evolve to more as sophisticated betting strategies as the learning curve is surmounted.

Join their forum, and "rub elbows" w/the handicappers and others as well. It's enlightening, fun and an opinionated crew of posters. They'll run free contests that let you measure your own "edge" vs other participants.

I hope they continue on for sometime, this past week I heard about indictment by US gov (on radio show) and I'm wondering the effect it may have on other handicapping sites. All things considered (or at least I think I am) this is the best established site that has evolved much more nicely than other sites out on the 'Net. I can only hope for the best ....

Saturday, July 22, 2006

The Football Outsiders

One day I believe these guys will be very well known outside of the football community. Their site, is chock full of stats. Sure you can get stats at, but can you interpret stats the way these guys do? They even have their own stats that they track and have been fairly accurate in observations. There are lots of comments, stats and perhaps the most resourceful is where you can find a whole lot of links to a whole lot of site. I just wish I could find their atom/rss feed. I know they have one, just finding it on the site is not easy. They sell an annual prospectus, but it's meant for the fantasy football player. Still a very useful site and you can't beat the price as they are free (but who knows for how long??)

Kirwan's insights

OK, I'm biased, Kirwan is one of my fav's. His articles are written w/the wisdom that comes from years of involvement w/the game. He isn't always right, but more often than not he is dead on w/his observations.
Here's his main page
among his recent posts, these ring so true (pay attention to the last paragraph, I believe the Ravens will do well in preseason), ( so that's which way SU I'd bet against most teams w/new HC's ), here you might notice which teams are the hardest to defend and why (so when key players go down, you could just bet the side, but I'd also bet the total) and finally perhaps betting a side and total could be worthwhile this year on the 'boys
Wish I had Sirius radio, but guess I'll just wait for his posts ...