Tuesday, June 06, 2017

NFL 2017 regular season total wins - and more...

The LVRJ had a fairly recent post see:

as well as this: http://www.oddsshark.com/nfl/2017-nfl-season-win-totals

there's also season props here:

With the recent news of NYJ overhaul/rebuilding that 5.5 win season total win is mighty high.
Reviewing this upcoming season games for NYJ, I would guess that their weakness opponents are JAC (week 4 @home) and CLE (week 5 on the road). They also play BUF (week 1 on the road and week 9 @home). Another team I think they might have a chance are @DEN(week 14) and vs SD (week 16). But the more I look at it, the more I think they have a chance of going 0-fer.
Going 0-fer pays 1400-to-1 at oddsshark.

I'd place $ on under the season win total of 5.5 for the NYJ  and if you can find an 0-fer bet I bet on it occuring this season, particularly since the teams that NYJ have a chance of beating all appear to better. In some cases, like JAC and DEN their D will likely hold NYJ to a FG or two.
BUF may just run them over and SD at the end of the season may still be in the playoff hunt and likely not concede anything to NYJ.

Wednesday, May 31, 2017

2017 - OT shortened to 10 minutes - an angle to bet on? or bet against?

I read this: http://www.footballzebras.com/2017/05/23/owners-approve-shortened-overtime-dont-know/

and noted the article stated that if this had been implemented last season, then there would be 3 additional games ending up as tied.

I recall ARI HC Arians stating that after their 6-6 OT game w/SEA, their team did not have a normal week for the next game. I believe he stated they only had a walk thru instead of the normal practice.

This opens up a betting opportunity - betting against teams the following week after participating in OT game that went the full length of OT. Even though OT has been shortened from 15 min to 10 min, the way it affects team preparation for the following game appears to be a situation that's hard to ignore.

It is a small sample size to review from last year and their aren't many OT games during the season.
How it affects teams performance in the following game needs to be reviewed in more detail.

2016 season, OT game, following week SU results:
week 1 SD @KC 27-33, week 2 JAC @SD 14-38, KC @HOU 12-19 (W, L) [sd l,w] [kc w,l]
week 3 CLE @MIA 24-30, week 4 CLE @WAS 20-31, MIA @CIN 7-22 (L, L)[cle l,l][mia w,l]
week 6 IND @HOU 23-26, week 7 IND @TEN 34-26, HOU @DEN 9-27 (W, L)[ind l,w][hou w,l]
week 7 SD @ATL 33-30, week 8 SD @DEN 19-27, GB @ATL 32-33 (L, W)[sd w,l][ atl l,w]
week 7 SEA @ARI 6-6, week 8 SEA @NO 20-25, ARI @CAR 20-30 (L, L)[sea t,l][ari t,l]
week 8 WAS @CIN 27-27, week 9 bye, bye
week 8 OAK @TB 30-24, week 9 DEN @OAK 20-30, ATL @TB 43-28 (W, L)[oak w,w][tb l,l]
week 8 PHI @DAL 23-29, week 9 PHI @NYG 23-28, DAL @CLE 35-10 (L, W)[phi l,l][dal w,w]
week 9 DET @MIN 22-16, week 10 bye, MIN @WAS 20-26 (bye, L)[det w,bye][min l,l]
week 12 KC @DEN 30-27, week 13 KC @ATL 29-28, DEN @JAC 20-10 (W, W)[kc w,w][den l,w]
week 14 NYJ @SF 23-17, week 15 MIA @NYJ 34-13, SF @ATL 13-41 (L, L)[nyj w,l][sf l,l]
week 16 MIA @BUF 34-31, week 17 NE @MIA 35-14, BUF @NYJ 10-30 (L, L)[mia w,l][buf l,l]
week 17 CLE @PIT 21-27, week 18 playoffs - CLE out, MIA @PIT 12-30 (DNP, W)[cle l,dnp][pit w,w]

interestingly enough;
prior to week 8 team that loses OT wins following game (except for CLE)
prior to week 8 team that wins OT loses following game

after week 8  team that loses OT loses following game (except den vs atl close game, cle dnp)
after week 8  team that wins OT wins following game (except DET bye, nyj vs div, mia vs div)

so it appears:
prior to mid season, bet against winner of OT the following week
prior to mid season, bet on loser of OT the following week (w/reservation to not bet)

after mid-season, bet against loser of OT (w/reservation to not bet)
after mid-season, bet on winner of OT, the following week (w/a lot of reservation to not bet)

Sunday, February 05, 2017

2016 - week 21 (aka Play offs week 4) - results

So an OT win for NE vs ATL at SB LI with an ending score of 34-28. I wasn't too far off with my thoughts of a 35-30 game. The favorite/over combo won the money. My instincts are thinking the sports books got hit hard.

What a game, things were really looking bleak for NE with ATL up 28-3 in Q3 and I also thought the game was over as well, but I wonder if game management by ATL could have been better, when they had field position and could have score a FG, but Brady, Belichick and their Defense woke up after that doink (the missed PAT) and now we have a very memorable Super Bowl LI...

Sunday, January 22, 2017

2016 - week 21 (aka Play offs week 4) - picks

Two weeks away, but here's my instinct picks....

02/05 6:30 PM
101 NE -3 *
102 ATL 59 over

I normally would take under the total, but due to TV timeouts (and their length - longer than normal as compared to regular season) I'll go over... say... 35-30?

Below is a chart of each teams regular season opponents as well as the past two weeks of post season.

As you can see below, they have played 5 common opponents this season.
NE @ARI wk 1 win,  ARI @ATL wk 12 win (CoBye)
SEA @ NE wk 10 loss (CoBye), ATL @SEA wk 6 loss
NE @SF wk 11 win, SF @ATL wk 15 win
LA @NE wk 13 win, ATL @LA wk 14 win
NE @DEN wk 15 win, ATL @DEN wk 5 win

not much difference, if they played the opponent earlier in the season it was 'close', later on in the season much more scoring, a larger difference in scoring

OPP where score opscre SU ATS dif
ARI road 23 21 W W 2
MIA home 31 24 W W 7
HOU home 27 0 W W 27
BUF home 0 16 L L -16
CLE road 33 13 W W 20
CIN home 35 17 W W 18
PIT road 27 16 W W 11
BUF road 41 25 W W 16
 bye bye bye   
SEA home 24 31 L L -7
SF road 30 17 W W 13
NYJ road 22 17 W L 5
LA home 26 10 W W 16
BAL home 30 23 W L 7
DEN road 16 3 W W 13
NYJ home 41 3 W W 38
MIA road 35 14 W W 21
 bye bye bye   
HOU home 34 16 W W 18
PIT home 36 17 W W 19

OPP where score opscre SU ATS dif
TB home 24 31 L L -7
OAK road 35 28 W W 7
NO road 45 32 W W 13
CAR home 48 33 W W 15
DEN road 23 16 W W 7
SEA road 24 26 L W -2
SD home 30 33 L L -3
GB home 33 32 W L 1
TB road 43 28 W W 15
PHI road 15 24 L L -9
 bye bye bye   
ARI home 38 19 W W 19
KC home 28 29 L L -1
LA road 42 14 W W 28
SF home 41 13 W W 28
CAR road 33 16 W W 17
NO home 38 32 W L 6
 bye bye bye   
SEA home 36 20 W W 16
GB home 44 21 W W 23

2016 - week 20 (aka Play offs week 3) - results

just sucked ..... 0-2 ATS 1-1 totals, fav/over won for each game

the 2nd game PIT @NE was going at an under pace, until end of 1st half, from then on it was an over game....

Sunday, January 15, 2017

2016 - week 20 (aka Play offs week 3) - picks

these games should be great to watch....

01/22 3:05 PM
311 GB 60 *
312 ATL -4½ *over*

week 8 rematch ATL won 33-32 vs GB

01/22 6:40 PM
313 PIT 51½ *
314 NE -6 *under*

week 7 rematch NE won 27-16 @PIT

2016 - week 19 (aka Play offs week 2) - results

The late change of game time for PIT @KC due to an expected ice storm, may or may not have affected the game, but it did affect my thinking. It left me frozen I did not change my picks, I would have at least changed the total to under, but I doubt I would have changed to PIT -1

as for this weeks results (much better, odd how fav's won on saturday, and dogs won on sunday):
ATS: 3-1
Totals: 2-2

Saturday games were snoozers and Sundays games were much more exciting... on to next week

Sunday, January 08, 2017

2016 - week 19 (aka Play offs week 2) - picks

well here goes nothing...

01/14 4:35 PM
301 SEA 51½ *over*
302 ATL -4½ *

SEA doesn't do well on the road...

01/14 8:15 PM
303 HOU 45 under
304 NE -16 *

tempted to take pts, but this will be disciple against master... lol

01/15 1:05 PM
305 PIT -1 over
306 KC 46½ *

noted: PIT QB Roethlisberger wearing ankle boot after PO week 1 game

01/15 4:40 PM
307 GB 51½ *
308 DAL -4 over

We're seeing a performance for the ages w/GB QB Rogers

2016 - week 18 (aka Play offs week 1) - results

I can't believe it, but I guess it was time for this to happen...

ALL the home favorites won ATS(Against The Spread) and SU (Straight Up)

1st and 4th games went Over the total, with 2nd and 3rd games ending Under the total

I ended up 2-2 ATS and 0-4 for Totals.... just awful... sigh..

oh well, on to next week...

Monday, January 02, 2017

2016 - week 18 (aka Play offs week 1) - picks

Update 1/4: added White Hat(WH) records - tendencies - of which some are going against what I picked, maybe I'll change...

OAK @HOU, is a game that's tough to call. Overall OAK is the better team, the edge @QB should go to HOU, but each team will need to win running the ball, stopping the run and playing field position w/their respective ST players OAK has the more experienced FG kicker, but HOU has the better punter...

01/07 4:35 PM
101 OAK 37 under
102 HOU -3 *

week 11 rematch OAK won 27-20 vs HOU (@OAK)
OAK QB Cook starts? (1st)
HOU QB Osweiler starts?
Placing a first half bet on under (18½?) seems prudent
Both teams will need to win running the ball, play good ST and outstanding D
There should be a lot of punts, likely 6 to 7 punts each, with the most 
possessions to be 10 for each team. So 3 to 4 scores at most for each team
Likely only 1 TD each and the rest FGs...
Sports books posted a total of 37 (20-17)
I'm thinking 16-13 at most...
This game really looks like a 6pt tease candidate, w/OAK +9 and under 43 combo.
or if you're into 'middling' do 6½ pt tease
HOU +2½/OAK +9½ or under 43½/over 31½ as possible
or if you're really fearful do a 7pt tease
HOU +3/OAK +10 or under 44/over 30 as possible
if OAK can win with run O, this game could be moneyline win
WH 12-3 FAV SU (LY 13-2 FAV SU)

01/07 8:15 PM
103 DET 42½ *
104 SEA -7½ **over**

judging by the total posted for this game, sportsbooks have questions
6 pt tease = DET +13½/over 36½
DET moneyline?
normally I'd look at under due to SEA D prowess, but I'm thinking at the half a 
score of 13-10 or more is likely
WH 3-12 Over-Under

01/08 1:05 PM
105 MIA 47 over
106 PIT -10 *

week 6 rematch MIA won 30-15 vs PIT (@MIA)
MIA QB Moore starts (3rd)
6 pt tease = PIT -4 over 41 MIA +16 (unsure if under 53 will win)
PIT should win, cover? 31-20?
WH 11-4 RoadATS & FAV SU (LY 12-3 FAV SU)

01/08 4:40 PM
107 NYG 44½ *
108 GB -4 **under**

Placing a first half bet on under (22½?) seems prudent
week 5 rematch GB won 23-16 vs NYG (@GB)
6 pt tease = under 50½ NYG +10 GB +1 (I don't think over 38½ will win)
WH 10-4-1 RoadATS 4-10-1 FAV-DOG-tie (LY 3-13 FAV-DOG)

Sunday, January 01, 2017

2016 - week 17 - results

An unusual season, but one I ended on the UP swing, which is nice.
No teams looks truly dominant, with all playoff bound teams having an Achilles heel (or two).
I'll remember this season for the white hats calling less penalties and there were far more sweeps of division series than I can recall.

SF will need to find a new direction as this franchise is in disarray. It was a waste of a season for former head coach Chip Kelly. Perhaps he'll find a position w/NE, just my guess as he and HC Belichick are good friends.

Week 17 results:
ATS : 10-6
Totals: 8-8

for the regular season:
ATS : 132-117-6
Totals: 130-119-6