2016 - week 21 (aka Play offs week 4) - results

So an OT win for NE vs ATL at SB LI with an ending score of 34-28. I wasn't too far off with my thoughts of a 35-30 game. The favorite/over combo won the money. My instincts are thinking the sports books got hit hard.

What a game, things were really looking bleak for NE with ATL up 28-3 in Q3 and I also thought the game was over as well, but I wonder if game management by ATL could have been better, when they had field position and could have score a FG, but Brady, Belichick and their Defense woke up after that doink (the missed PAT) and now we have a very memorable Super Bowl LI...

2016 - week 21 (aka Play offs week 4) - picks

Two weeks away, but here's my instinct picks....

02/05 6:30 PM
101 NE -3 *
102 ATL 59 over

I normally would take under the total, but due to TV timeouts (and their length - longer than normal as compared to regular season) I'll go over... say... 35-30?

Below is a chart of each teams regular season opponents as well as the past two weeks of post season.

As you can see below, they have played 5 common opponents this season.
NE @ARI wk 1 win,  ARI @ATL wk 12 win (CoBye)
SEA @ NE wk 10 loss (CoBye), ATL @SEA wk 6 loss
NE @SF wk 11 win, SF @ATL wk 15 win
LA @NE wk 13 win, ATL @LA wk 14 win
NE @DEN wk 15 win, ATL @DEN wk 5 win

not much difference, if they played the opponent earlier in the season it was 'close', later on in the season much more scoring, a larger difference in scoring

NE
OPP where score opscre SU ATS dif
ARI road 23 21 W W 2
MIA home 31 24 W W 7
HOU home 27 0 W W 27
BUF home 0 16 L L -16
CLE road 33 13 W W 20
CIN home 35 17 W W 18
PIT road 27 16 W W 11
BUF road 41 25 W W 16
 bye bye bye   
SEA home 24 31 L L -7
SF road 30 17 W W 13
NYJ road 22 17 W L 5
LA home 26 10 W W 16
BAL home 30 23 W L 7
DEN road 16 3 W W 13
NYJ home 41 3 W W 38
MIA road 35 14 W W 21
 bye bye bye   
HOU home 34 16 W W 18
PIT home 36 17 W W 19

ATL
OPP where score opscre SU ATS dif
TB home 24 31 L L -7
OAK road 35 28 W W 7
NO road 45 32 W W 13
CAR home 48 33 W W 15
DEN road 23 16 W W 7
SEA road 24 26 L W -2
SD home 30 33 L L -3
GB home 33 32 W L 1
TB road 43 28 W W 15
PHI road 15 24 L L -9
 bye bye bye   
ARI home 38 19 W W 19
KC home 28 29 L L -1
LA road 42 14 W W 28
SF home 41 13 W W 28
CAR road 33 16 W W 17
NO home 38 32 W L 6
 bye bye bye   
SEA home 36 20 W W 16
GB home 44 21 W W 23

2014 - week 22 - playoffs week 4, SB 49 - picks

early post.... and you'll noticed the bettors are putting their $$$ on NE
hopefully I'll remember to post my picks....

So I'm a bit late, but it's SEA and Under for me....

02/01 6:30 PM
101 NE -1 
102 SEA 48½ 






opened
101 NE  48½
102 SEA -3