Saturday, November 30, 2013

2013 - week 13 - picks

GB 14-2-1 vs division SU
this week, DET

NFC East 10-17 SU vs non-division opponents
this week, OAK @DAL, ARI @PHI, 

TEAMS w/10 days rest 12-10 ATS/SU
* indicates lost ATS
** indicates won ATS
TEAMS w/10 days rest (10Dr)
this week, NO, ATL

Teams Coming Off Bye 12-10 SU  
Teams Coming Off Bye 10-12 ATS
* = loss ATS
Teams Coming Off Bye  (CoB) 
this week, BUF,CIN,PHI,SEA

12/01 1:00 PM
425 TEN 44½ ***
426 IND -4½ over

IND won wk11 30-27

12/01 4:25 PM
427 DEN -4 under
428 KC 49½ *

DEN won wk11 27-17

12/01 1:00 PM
429 JAC 40½ *
430 CLE -7 under

CLE QB Weeden starts

12/01 1:00 PM
431 TB 41½ *
432 CAR -8½ OVER

CAR won wk08 31-13

12/01 1:00 PM
433 CHI 49 under
434 MIN -1 **

CHI QB McCown starts
CHI won wk02 31-30

12/01 1:00 PM
435 ARI 48½ ***
436 PHI -3½ over


12/01 1:00 PM
437 MIA 38½ *
438 NYJ -1½ under

1st game of division series

12/01 4:05 PM
439 ATL 46 under
440 BUF -3½ ****

how could anyone look at ATL?
ATL 10Dr

12/01 4:05 PM
441 STL 42 *
442 SF -9 over

SF won wk04 35-11

12/01 1:00 PM
443 NE -7½ ***
444 HOU 47 under
HOU QB Keenum starts

12/01 4:25 PM
445 CIN 48½ OVER
446 SD -1½ *


12/01 8:30 PM
447 NYG -1½ *
448 WAS 46½ OVER

1st game of division series

12/02 8:40 PM
449 NO 47 UNDER
450 SEA -5½ *

NO 10Dr

Thursday, November 28, 2013

2013 - week 13 - Thursday picks

Here's my thoughts for what it's worth...

11/28 12:30 PM
303 GB 50 *
304 DET -6 over

GB QB Flynn starts?
Hopefully at GB, the 'Tolzien' experiment is over and done with. GB really needs the win after last weekends tie at home vs MIN. DET had a very surprising home loss, at this point of the season I wouldn't expect to see home losses, so this is as good a sign as any to doubt DET as a playoff ready team.

11/28 4:30 PM
305 OAK 46½ *
306 DAL -9½ over

OAK QB McGloin starts
After 3 straight games at home OAK takes to the road, where OAK has played much better than expected. I don't expect OAK to win, I just don't expect DAL to cover.

11/28 8:30 PM
307 PIT 40½ over
308 BAL -3 *

WC 22
BAL with a win will split series for the season and though PIT has been playing better as of late, so has BAL.

2013 - week 12 - results

It really shows when I spend time away from watching football, these past 10+ days I've spent changing address'. Moving is such a time consumer especially when you're doing the majority of the labor.

I missed doing the weekly GRID as well as reviewing interesting games. This weekend I watch zero (0) games due to the move. I suspect I won't be doing so well this weekend as well as we're trying to settle in as well as celebrate this Thanksgiving weekend.

Surprisingly I did well with totals, picking mostly unders and not so surprisingly I sucked ATS. It's going to be tough to get back to .500 ATS

2013 - week 12 - results

Friday, November 22, 2013

2013 - week 12 - picks

I'm a bit late posting Thursday Night Football picks as well as the rest of the weekend, but I'm still moving from old place to new place. So I thought I'd at least post my early thoughts from Sunday. You may notice the numbers are a bit out dated, though I have checked any online site for updated number. It's a time issue as always. I don't even know who won TNF game last night. Here's my early thoughts....

GB 14-2 vs division SU
this week, MIN

'SEA hangover' teams the week after playing SEA 2-8 SU/ATS
this week, MIN

NFC East 10-16 SU vs non-division opponents
this week, SF @WAS

TEAMS w/10 days rest 11-9 ATS/SU
* indicates lost ATS
** indicates won ATS
TEAMS w/10 days rest (10Dr)
this week, IND, TEN

Teams Going into Bye 18-12 SU
Teams Going into Bye 17-13 ATS
* indicates lost ATS
Teams Going into Bye (GiB) 
this week, NONE

Teams Coming Off Bye 10-10 SU  
Teams Coming Off Bye 8-12 ATS
* = loss ATS
Teams Coming Off Bye  (CoB) 
this week, DAL, STL

11/21 8:25 PM
107 NO -8 ***
108 ATL 53 under

series split favors ATL

11/24 1:00 PM
209 TB 48½ under
210 DET -9½ ***

11/24 1:00 PM
211 JAC 43½ under
212 HOU -10 **??

HOU QB Keenum starts?
HOU should win, will they cover?

11/24 1:00 PM
213 MIN 44 under
214 GB -5½ **

GB QB Tolzien starts (preseason game 2)
series split favors MIN

11/24 1:00 PM
215 SD 41½ under
216 KC -5 *

11/24 1:00 PM
217 CAR -4 ***
218 MIA 41½ UNDER

CAR DE Johnson out?
Last week, IMO, MIA was really lucky w/referees, they'll need more than luck this week

11/24 1:00 PM
219 PIT 41 under
220 CLE -2 **

I really like PIT ST punting, a field position changer

11/24 1:00 PM
221 CHI 46½ under
222 STL -1½ *

CHI QB McCown starts (preseason game 4, [started week 9,10,11 won,loss,won ])
STL QB Clemen starts (preseason game 4, [started week 8,9,10 loss,loss,won ])
Who do you believe in?

11/24 1:00 PM
223 NYJ 40½ under
224 BAL -4 **

11/24 4:05 PM
225 TEN 41½ **
226 OAK -1 under

TEN 10Dr
GB QB McGloin starts (preseason game 2)

11/24 4:05 PM
227 IND 45 **
228 ARI -1½ over

IND 10Dr

11/24 4:25 PM
229 DAL 47 over
230 NYG -2½ **

series split favors NYG

11/24 8:30 PM
231 DEN -2½ OVER
232 NE 56 **

DEN FS Moore out

11/25 8:40 PM
233 SF -5 **
234 WAS 47½ under

Hopefully I'll be at .500 ATS and for totals as well. I'll probably be late as well for TNF again for next week as I still have quite a bit of moving as well as settling in at new place.

Tuesday, November 19, 2013

2013 - week 11 - results

TNF, IND @TEN, and again IND plays better on the road than at home. I ended up w/a push for the game and it went far over instead of under the total. TEN came out dominating w/a really good run O and led 14-0. IND made the right move w/subbing in RB Brown and officially RB Richardson should be labelled a bust (or at least for this season). It seems to me the refs were a bit in favor of IND w/a phantom 1st down on a IND QB Luck sneak. TEN also went away from running w/RB CJ which was curious IMO. IND seems to take control from Q2 even though TEN led 17-6. Q3 and the dam breaks as IND scores 17pts and TEN has no real answers. TEN needs to learn to continue to play keep away from a smart QB like Luck. I lay this on the lap of TEN OC far more than their DC. ST could get better, but all in all IND got another win after a loss. Impressive streak from last year.

I had a headache all Sunday, here's what I recall:
WAS @PHI, not much of a game, PHI dominates and TV broadcasters cut over to DET @PIT, WAS makes a Q4 comeback, but it's the too little too late variety

DET @PIT, the PIT ST punter had an outstanding game, gaining 10 yards on the opposition and sure enough, PIT gets the win and DET seems to have issues on the road

SD @MIA, officiating in Q1 was highly questionable and favoring MIA IMO. Too much for SD to overcome with their own issues. MIA gets the much needed win

SNF, KC @DEN, DEN gets an early 10-0 lead and never looks back. KC D plays as well as you can vs Peyton and ST does it's job. It's KC O that suffered, WRs had too many drops and just weren't in sync w/QB. KC OL had issues at times as well.

The surprise of the weekend is the road win by OAK, totally unexpected w/a rookie QB starting his first game. HOU unexpectingly also subs QB Schaub in Q4 for QB Keenum, really odd move by coaching staff IMO and OAK D did really well as well as run O and pass O.

I should've gone with the division series split for NYJ/BUF and CLE/CIN.

As for the weekend a sub .500 ATS and above .500 for totals

I also noticed all teams going into a bye week won and all teams coming off a bye lost. Teams w/10 days rest also lost as well.

2013 - week 11 - results

Wednesday, November 13, 2013

2013 - week 11 - picks

GB 14-2 vs division SU
this week, NONE

'SEA hangover' teams the week after playing SEA 2-7 SU/ATS
this week, ATL

NFC East 9-16 SU vs non-division opponents
this week, GB @NYG

TEAMS w/10 days rest 11-7 ATS/SU
* indicates lost ATS
** indicates won ATS
TEAMS w/10 days rest (10Dr)
this week, WAS MIN

Teams Going into Bye 14-12 SU
Teams Going into Bye 13-13 ATS
* indicates lost ATS
Teams Going into Bye (GiB) 
this week, BUF CIN PHI SEA

Teams Coming Off Bye 10-6 SU  
Teams Coming Off Bye 8-8 ATS
* = loss ATS
Teams Coming Off Bye  (CoB) 
this week, CLE KC NE NYJ

11/17 1:00 PM
403 ATL -1½ under
404 TB 43½ *

Why is ATL favored?

11/17 1:00 PM
405 NYJ 41 ***
406 BUF -1½ *under?

NYJ TE Winslow starts? WR Holmes starts?
NYJ won 1st game 27-20
NYJ alternating WLW? or is it even number(Loss) odd number(win) week
NYJ 1-3 SU on the road
BUF QB Manuel starts (2nd game after return from injury)
BUF also had a LWL? pattern w/QB Manuel
Normally for division games I'll go with the split series, as the majority of teams do so each season, but BUF is starting their rookie QB, he did not look sharp last week. So BUF needs to rely on run O, but in recent weeks, their run O has a gained yardage and looks to be just above average, but the playcalling and timing of plays w/OL seems to be off. NYJ seems to be on an ascent and BUF on the descent. NYJ should sweeps series.

11/17 1:00 PM
407 DET -2½ *
408 PIT 47½ *over*

It's another coming of age game for DET (if they win) and scratch/claw their way up game for PIT.

11/17 1:00 PM
409 WAS 52½ OVER
410 PHI -3½ **

WAS 10Dr

11/17 4:05 PM
411 SD -1½ *
412 MIA 45½ *over?

So as the drama continues on in MIA, will SD come in and get the win?

11/17 1:00 PM
413 BAL 46½ *?
414 CHI -3 under?

CHI QB McCown starts (preseason game 2, [started week 9, won ])
CHI CB Tillman OUT
CHI injuries continue to mount as each week goes by. BAL D is playing really well, it's their O and ST that are having issues. I'm unsure if the strength of CHI is their O, their D or ST.
If BAL O and ST just cut down on TOs they should win the game. Both are coming off division games. CHI is in the playoff hunt, BAL is on the outside looking in, motivation favors BAL.
11/16 update: weather, storms, winds: looks like under the total is better.
11/16 update: changed pick from BAL/OVER to BAL/UNDER

11/17 1:00 PM
415 CLE 42 *
416 CIN -6 under

Week 4 CLE won 17-6 vs CIN
CLE QB Campbell starts (preseason game 3)
CIN O is predictable and their D is piling up w/injuries. CLE O is on the upswing and their D is the heart of their team. It's hard to pick CIN at home in a division game for the series split. I normally would pick the split, but this looks like a sweep.

11/17 1:00 PM
417 OAK 42½ over?
418 HOU -7 ****

OAK loses close on the road except to division foes this season
HOU should win will they cover?
HOU maybe a better first half bet than a whole game bet
HOU QB Keenum starts (preseason game 4, so far 0-fer)
HOU O has played the two best Ds in the past 3 games (KC, ARI) and had an odd game w/a loss at home to IND (HOU HC Kubiak collapse @half). I think HOU will blow out OAK in the first half, it's the second half that I don't know what to expect.

11/17 1:00 PM
419 ARI -6½ ****
420 JAC 41 under?

JAC last week 1st win of the year and an improbable win, you get lucky every once in a while, I think JAC luck runs out this week

11/17 8:30 PM
421 KC 50 *
422 DEN -8½ under

note: KC HC Reid 13-1 SU CoB

11/17 4:25 PM
423 MIN 45½ *
424 SEA -13½ ***OVER***

MIN WR Simpson out?
MIN 10Dr
SEA CB Browner out
SEA QB Wilson 10-0 @home
LY MIN lost @SEA 20-30
I don't expect SEA to lose, I just wonder can they cover? The total is a much better bet

11/17 4:25 PM
425 SF 47½ under
426 NO -3 *

SF TE Davis out?
strength vs strength, SF D vs NO O
NO D just needs to stop SF run O and they'll win

11/17 4:25 PM
427 GB 42½ under
428 NYG -6½ ****

GB QB Tolzien starts? (preseason game 1)
GB D really poor tackling last week
GB OL shuffle? C? RG? RT?
NYG 2nd game in a row @home
NYG D playing well, ST so-so and O really needs to take care of ball
LW OAK @NYG, NYG ST and O 'gifted' 17pts for OAK. OAK O 'only' scored 3pts

11/18 8:40 PM
429 NE 46 under
430 CAR -2½ *

NE 7-0 streak in NOV
Last week CAR big road win, now the lights of MNF..

Tuesday, November 12, 2013

2013 - week 11 - Thursday picks

11/14 8:25 PM
309 IND -3 under
310 TEN 42½ ***

TEN QB Fitzpatrick starts (preseason game 3, [started weeks 5, 6])
IND run O?
Last week STL D lays down the blue print on how to beat IND
or maybe it should be w/o their best WR's IND O looks lost at times

2013 - week 11 - GRIDs - Efficiency and QB rating differential

This week I decided to add both GRID as I've noticed that they both have revelance these past few weeks.

2013 - week 11 - GRID - Efficiency

2013 - week 11 - GRID - QB rating differential

Here's what I've noticed in my tracking of predicting wins SU. The QB Rating Differential seems to be better at a rate of about 2-4 games per week. For the majority of picks they will agree, but where they differ is where QB Rating Differential shines as it continues to out pick the Efficiency GRID.

The Efficiency GRID has captured the demise of ATL better in my opinion. Though they are both accumulative of the season, the Efficiency GRID has shown a greater decline and thus ranks ATL below TB, instead of above TB as the QB Rating Differential has done.

You'll also note the great rise that PHI and is now considerably ahead of DAL in the QBR GRID vs the equal billing that the Efficiency GRID has them at the moment.

IND has also taken a great fall w/o their #1 WR Wayne in the QB rating differential.

In general those teams that have a good QB are better to follow w/QB Rating Differential and those teams that depend on their D, their ST and a run game are much more predictable with the Efficiency GRID. The problem lies when you have to choose a team in a game and they are more predictable w/a different GRID. It then becomes a toss of the coin, or if their is a distraction (drama), I'll use that as a deciding factor. I've even gone back to the basics of too many injuries to overcome for a team to use as a deciding factor.

Below is a simple text output of predicting outcomes for week 11 games:

QBRating Differential
road roadO-D home homeO-D predict DIF
IND 7.975 TEN 13.96 TEN 5.985 ?
NYJ -32.525 BUF 2.68 BUF 35.205
ATL -23.425 TB -22.6 TB 0.825
DET 12.88 PIT 7.05 DET -5.83 ?
WAS -20.98 PHI -26.6 WAS -5.62
SD 2.28 MIA 15.225 MIA 12.945 ?
BAL -25.36 CHI 13.18 CHI 38.54
CLE -17.8 CIN 38.25 CIN 56.05
OAK -27.8 HOU -4.275 HOU 23.525
ARI -16.575 JAC -49.575 ARI -33
KC 30.2 DEN 43.1 DEN 12.9
MIN -25.875 SEA 35.725 SEA 61.6
SF 12.125 NO 59.7 NO 47.575
GB -12.85 NYG -6.175 NYG 6.675 ?
NE -12.075 CAR 23.825 CAR 35.9

road RO-Deff home HO-Deff predict DIF
IND 17% TEN 2% IND -14.77% ?
NYJ -7% BUF -5% BUF 2.13%
ATL -15% TB -12% TB 3.42%
DET -10% PIT -1% PIT 8.67% ?
WAS -9% PHI -18% WAS -9.36%
SD -1% MIA -8% SD -7.40% ?
BAL -4% CHI -0% CHI 4.25%
CLE -8% CIN 10% CIN 17.62%
OAK -13% HOU -6% HOU 6.32%
ARI -18% JAC -30% ARI -11.93%
KC 14% DEN 22% DEN 8.22%
MIN -13% SEA 21% SEA 34.21%
SF 8% NO 27% NO 18.97%
GB 9% NYG -1% GB -10.12% ?
NE 4% CAR 21% CAR 17.11%


As you note above their are four games which the GRIDs differ in predicting the outcome, we'll see which GRID is right and wrong.

One other thing, the text output is partially based on the GRID, the GRIDs themselves show the seasons accumulative effects. At this point of the season, I modified the text output to only measure a road team and its road record vs a home team and its home record, thus the numbers in the text are not the same as you see in the GRID. I do this because their are teams that have a greater or lesser tendency to produce on the road vs at home. Most of the time the GRID will predict the same outcome as the simple text output, but their are times when they will differ.

Teams that are 'Better on the road' (as measured w/QB rating differential):

2013 - week 10 - results

TNF, WAS @MIN, suspect coaching by D again (2nd game in a row, see prior game @DAL) almost cost MIN the game, but luckily suspect coaching on O by WAS already cost them the game. Seemingly in control WAS extended their half time lead to 27-14 and they went away from running the ball w/RB Morris. WAS had scored on their first 5 possessions and then proceeded to punt 3 times and end the game on downs. It seems to me WAS has an issue with finishing the game as they were in control. Interestingly enough as well in Q4 w/the game on the line and WAS driving for a TD to tie game, WAS turned almost exclusively to RB Helu, instead of RB Morris.

CIN @BAL, BAL D dominates CIN O for most of the game, though CIN does tie the game and send into OT, it almost seemed as if both teams were going thru the motions or maybe this just wasn't an interesting game.

CAR @SF, CAR D keeps them in the game, CAR O grabs the one chance it had to score a TD and SF FG's just don't cut it as this was a good upset for CAR, though notably SF players were injured during game

DEN @SD, SD D did all it could but it wasn't enough, they just don't have the 'horses' to compete w/the Broncos, that and you must score TD's vs DEN, FG's just won't cut it

SNF, DAL @NO, DAL had several players injured during game, and NO DC Ryan had a great game plan to contain Romo and Co. DAL D just had no answers for Breezy and the boys, that middle parted like the Red Sea.

Again another .500 weekend ATS and just above .500 for totals. And so I inch my way back up to .500 respectability. The surprises for me (or those that I picked Loss [ATS] and Loss [Total])

OAK @NYG, OAK made more of a game than I expected or w/NYG D I may still be thinking they are better than they show. NYG did win SU, but not ATS

JAC @TEN, now I was about to take the pts, but I decided that if JAC was to get off their 0-fer, it would be at home. As for the game TEN QB Locker was injured and QB Fitzpatrick sub'd which was probably the biggest factor for JAC winning, besides playing keep away w/a running game.

HOU @ARI, again I expected more out of HOU O, QB Keenum is playing very well for his third game, but again in the 2nd half (for the third game in a row) HOU has a D that lets you drive and an O that can't move the ball. So is it the players? the playcalling? or a combination of both?

2013 - week 10 - results

Friday, November 08, 2013

2013 - week 10 - picks

GB 14-2 vs division SU
this week, NONE

'SEA hangover' teams the week after playing SEA 1-7 SU/ATS
this week, TB

NFC East 7-14 SU vs non-division opponents
this week, WAS @MIN, DAL @NO, PHI @GB, OAK @NYG

TEAMS w/10 days rest 11-5 ATS/SU
* indicates lost ATS
** indicates won ATS
TEAMS w/10 days rest (10Dr)*=11Dr
this week CIN MIA*

Teams Going into Bye 13-11 SU
Teams Going into Bye 12-12 ATS
* indicates lost ATS
Teams Going into Bye (GiB) 
this week, DAL STL

Teams Coming Off Bye 5-5 ATS/SU  
Teams Coming Off Bye  (CoB) 

11/10 1:00 PM
203 JAC 41 *UNDER*
204 TEN -13 ?*


11/10 1:00 PM
205 PHI 54½ *
206 GB -9½ under

GB QB Wallace starts (preseason game 1)

11/10 1:00 PM
207 BUF 41 *OVER*
208 PIT -3½ *

BUF QB Tuel starts (preseason game 2)
11/7 update: BUF QB Manuel starts

11/10 1:00 PM
209 OAK 43½ under
210 NYG -7 *


11/10 1:00 PM
211 STL 43½ *
212 IND -10 UNDER

STL QB Clemens starts (preseason game 3)
Taking pts, just not comfortable w/IND O, really sputtering w/o WR Wayne

11/10 1:00 PM
213 SEA -6½ under
214 ATL 44 *

ATL has won last 3 games vs SEA (including playoffs)

11/10 1:00 PM
215 CIN -1½ *UNDER*
216 BAL 44 *

10Dr CIN
LY series split, home teams wins
CIN injuries taking a toll on D?
if CIN has a 3rd pony to ride on O, they'll win if not, it's a road loss
unless of course BAL keeps going 3 wide, I suspect with the start of the '2nd season' (9th game) and their record 3-5 and CIN leading their division w/6-3, that BAL will return to ol' school

11/10 1:00 PM
217 DET -2½ ****OVER****
218 CHI 50 *

CHI QB McCown starts (preseason game 2)
series split? home team wins? wk4 DET @home won 40-32
11/7 update: CHI QB Cutler starts

11/10 4:05 PM
219 CAR 42½ UNDER
220 SF -6 *


11/10 4:25 PM
221 HOU 41 *
222 ARI -2½ UNDER

HOU QB Keenum starts (preseason game 3)
3rd tough D in a row for HOU QB Keenum
motivation: DEN 1st game w/o HC Kubiak, DC Phillips interim HC

11/10 4:25 PM
223 DEN -7 under
224 SD 57½ *

Both teams know each others O, so should this game be UNDER?
I initially picked OVER, but thought better of it
motivation: DEN 1st game w/o HC Fox, DC Del Rio interim HC

11/10 8:30 PM
225 DAL 53 *
226 NO -7 *OVER*

NO has yet to lose at home this season and coming off a loss
DAL coming off a 'lucky' home win, they'll need more than luck to win on the road.
DAL 1-3 SU on the road, 3-1 ATS 
?TAKE pts?

11/11 8:40 PM
227 MIA -3 *UNDER?
228 TB 41 *

11Dr MIA
Both teams coming off of OT games, MIA won, TB loss
If TB has not quit on Coach Schiano, I suspect this is a desperate team, they played over their heads on the road at SEA, MIA barely got the win last week AND plays better @home, this game is on the road.
MIA OL controversy, G Incognito OUT, T Martin OUT, coaching ordered '?code red?', media circus, 

it's always a bet against w/drama on a team.

Wednesday, November 06, 2013

2013 - week 10 - Thursday - picks

11/07 8:25 PM
107 WAS -2½ *OVER*
108 MIN 49 *

LY WAS won 38-26 @home

It's interesting that WAS is favored on the road. Last week at SD, WAS ran a lot of plays, out of essentially a run O formation and even passed though Griffin's accuracy didn't hurt them as SD D had issues stopping the run.

In this game, MIN D is used to playing the run and should be better at stopping the run than SD, but MIN D weakness is their pass D which goes against the weakness of WAS O, their pass O, so strength vs strength and weakness vs weakness for WAS O and MIN D.

 Flipping it around MIN O vs WAS D, surprisingly WAS pass D did fairly well against SD pass O last week (though I really think a phantom call against SD O and non-calls by officiating crew affected SD O). WAS pass D is not strong and MIN pass O looked good at times @DAL last week.

MIN run O is well known. I think their is an edge here. WAS D should be playing the run first and if MIN QB Ponder does well again (2 games in-a-row) we should have a close game.

It appears to me that the team that passes better will win the game. I think the total is the softer line, taking a home dog as WAS O has yet to play well on the road.

With ST, MIN appears to hold the edge as WAS has been penalty prone.

Tuesday, November 05, 2013

2013 - week 10 - GRID 10 efficiency

This past 'Hell-o-ween' weekend also killed the efficiency GRID predictions as compared to the QBrating GRID (that I still do just not posting for 'net consumption)

here's a snapshot of results from this past weekend:

qb rtg
R RO-D H HO-D Predi Dif
CIN 0.75 MIA 7.9 MIA 7.15
ATL -31.9 CAR 32.4333 CAR 64.333333
MIN -32.033 DAL 18.025 DAL 50.058333 (did not cover ATS)
NO 1.43333 NYJ -4.725 NO -6.158333 X
TEN -12.967 STL -6.9333 STL 6.0333333 X
KC 32.8333 BUF 8.925 KC -23.90833
SD 4.075 WAS -7 SD -11.075  X
PHI 20.925 OAK -4.8 PHI -25.725
TB -35.6 SEA 61.7667 SEA 97.366667 (did not cover ATS)
BAL -24.2 CLE 7.875 CLE 32.075
PIT 17.275 NE 22.375 NE 5.1
IND 20.8333 HOU -15.9 IND -36.73333
CHI -18.133 GB 42.6667 GB 60.8  X

my own efficiency
road RO-D ef home HO-D ef predicts DIF
CIN -0% MIA -10% CIN -0.092486 X
ATL -9% CAR 17% CAR 0.2618816
MIN -15% DAL 10% DAL 0.2445124 (did not cover ATS)
NO 16% NYJ -3% NO -0.191044 X
TEN 2% STL 7% STL 0.0490143 X
KC 17% BUF -5% KC -0.216063
SD 1% WAS -7% SD -0.086371 X
PHI 7% OAK 5% PHI -0.01066
TB -15% SEA 25% SEA 0.4008751 (did not cover ATS)
BAL -4% CLE -6% BAL -0.019247 X
PIT 0% NE 16% NE 0.1550626
IND 20% HOU -5% IND -0.25594
CHI -5% GB 30% GB 0.3464591 X

dif for:


As you can see it's 4 wrong vs 6 wrong, those two different choices by QBrating were spot on.

The errors;
 NO @NYJ - NYJ stuck to alternating W's and L's
TEN @STL - I guess I need to factor in new QB's better, but how?
SD @WAS - officiating and play calling were bigger factors than ST and WAS QB Griffin accuracy
CHI @GB - key injury to GB QB Rodgers in Q1

This week's GRID is interesting as some of the top teams are falling back to the pack.

2013 - week 10 - GRID - efficiency
I separated the teams by top 15%, mid 9% and bottom 15%. Granted I could have thinned the middle out by going to only 4%, but PIT, HOU, NYG, and WAS all have a chance at a .500 season and MIA, CLE and OAK have an even better chance. So I gave them all a chance at getting to .500 for the season.

NYJ and DET appears to be an anomaly w/less than 0% O-D efficiency. I think this is because that when they lose, they lose big and when they win, they don't win by a large margin in efficiency, thus they'll be less than 0% until there W/L habits change.

notable movers for the past month:
MIN is down 6%
SEA is down 5%
NO is down 5%
PHI is down 5% (even with their huge win this past weekend @OAK)
ATL down 4%

NYG is up 14%
CAR is up 5%
CIN is up 5%
SF is up 4%
HOU is up 4%

2013 - week 09 - results

Happy Halloween, CIN @MIA, again for the second game in a row MIA D plays well in the first half and looks like they should win the game, and then again their opponent roars back in the 3rd/4th quarters. MIA O looks ineffective. CIN O TO's are keeping this game close.
This looks like an angle to exploit w/MIA for first and second half bets.
In OT, MIA D wins game w/safety by DE Cameron Wake. What a game, on all hallow's day, as another upset occurs. MIA ends 0-4 streak, CIN coming off a dominating win vs NYJ, have costly injuries to go along with loss.
Note: late injury update as CIN LT Whitworth is inactive. In game injury update Q2 CIN DT Atkins injured and does not return. Q4 RB Bernard injured does not return as well. CIN OLB Harrison injured thumb out as well.

SD @WAS, SD led at half 14-7 and seemed to be in control of game. A phantom pass interference on SD WR Allen (video replayed shows he had a yard around him and never touched DB) did not stop SD from scoring a TD, but there was also another call later in the 2nd half that was curious as well. SD QB Rivers ultimately made some passing errors IMO, my guess is pre-snap he made a decision to go to WR Allen and he wasn't open. WR Allen also had a drop when he was wide open. So SD O did have a large share of the blame in the second half for their loss on the road to WAS. Why did SD O go to RB Woodhead inside of the 1 yard line, RB Mathews was used on the next play but it was up the middle, he could beat an edge player w/size. SD appear to try 'sneaking' RB Woodhead thru, they should've gone to TE Gates, who can clearly gain position. REALLY ODD playcalling by SD O.

MIN @DAL, MIN QB Ponder had his best game of the season, DAL seems to play to the level of their competition. DAL won SU, but did not cover ATS and could(should?) have lost the game. MIN D play calling at end of game, most likely cost them the game, prevent D allowed Romo and Co to drive the length of the field and win the game. Even MIN D players called out their DC on prevent D of rushing 3 (instead of 4).

PIT @NE, two teams w/issues ending up with a high scoring affair, I've seen this before it just didn't occur to me that it was the perfect fit for these teams. One desperate for a win (PIT) and the other seemingly winning with smoke and mirrors at times with a recently decimated D (NE) due to injuries. NE pass O has improved especially w/TE 'Gronk' appearing to be back in 'form'

IND @HOU, HOU again very good in the first half w/QB Keenum (looked like a playoff team) and really ineffective in the 2nd half. Though part of the O's woes should be placed on their kicker missing 3 of 4 FG's. IND won by 3 on the road, but HOU play calling or the absence of head coach Kubiak due to his collapse at half time really affected the team. Consider IND really lucky to win this game, they had no real O w/o WR Wayne and came back from 18pts to win vs a distracted team (loss of focus).

All in all, it was a Hell -o'ween for some teams, with some huge routs (PHI @OAK, PHI QB Foles 3rd start 7TD ties NFL record) and unexpected outcomes (NO @NYJ, Ryan Bowl V and Rex is 5-0 vs bro, NO O was thought to be the better team and NYJ alternating WL record, came thru w/another W after a L). Unnoticed maybe is the TB @SEA game won in OT by SEA (3rd OT of the weekend) w/TB QB Glennon also having the best game of his rookie season. TB could've won, SEA a bit lucky. KC D is playing outstanding outscoring KC O and BUF O. BUF D and run O against most other teams would've won game.

MNF update, GB QB Rodgers Q1 injury and is all lost? not quite as CHI D gives up two long TD runs to GB. On short notice GB Wallace did not do as well as CHI QB McCown did in when coming in for CHI QB Cutler in their last game two weeks ago. CHI D played inspired, but faltered here and there. CHI as a team played well overall and the rivalry is on. GB injury to QB Rodgers looms big.

After a good WL ATS record last week, I went in the exact opposite direction this weekend.
A lot of totals won with OVER, 10-2 pending the outcome of MNF (10-3 w/MNF game).
I ended up below .500 ATS and Totals, a hell-o-ween...

2013 - week 09 - results