Tuesday, September 30, 2014

2014 - week 04 - results

Mixed results, 8-5 ATS which is good, but 3-10 totals which is just awful....
If I had stayed with my first instincts for GB @CHI, I would have one more win, one less loss or 9-4 ATS...
A bit surprised by HOU, I thought you could run on their D as NYG did make their DL look bad at times in week 3.
I would never have expected TB to win at PIT, highly unexpected and thus a true UPSET IMO
I was being a bit pig headed with MIA at OAK, these overseas game at Wembley stadium, really favors the road team...
ATL at MIN, is another upset, but after examing the game, it's the injuries to ATL on OL, (Center and RG) as well as at strong safety that turned the tide in favor of MIN, that and MIN QB Bridgewater having an outstanding game in his debut as a starting QB (too bad he was injured as well, but the game was already in MIN favor by then) as well as a team that appeared to be motivated at home. I guess you could also factor in ATL a dome team on the road on a grass surface, out doors as a combo factor in their loss.
I was surprised a bit with the total for PHI at SF ending UNDER the total.

2014 - week 04 - results

Saturday, September 27, 2014

2014 - week 04 - rest of the week - picks

I may change my mind again....
update 9/27 changed pick from GB/Over to CHI/Over

09/28 1:00 PM
251 MIA -4½ **UNDER**
252 OAK 40½ *

This game is at Wembley Stadium, London, England which should favor the road team, except MIA is not playing well and OAK has a D and a viable O.
Notes: OAK has been in London since Monday
MIA following normal road team routine, leave on Thursday night

09/28 1:00 PM
253 GB -1½ ***OVER***
254 CHI 49½ *

CHI 2ndary beat up and more
if GB couldn't go into DET and beat them, what stops them from doing the same in CHI?
GB RT Bulaga returns?
CHI ST weakness?
GB history of 'rebound' after strugglin' loss
changed pick from GB/Over to CHI/Over

09/28 1:00 PM
255 BUF 41 *
256 HOU -3 over

HOU does play better at home, but NYG ran on them, I think BUF will do the same and stop HOU O from running as well
HC's know each other really well
starting to waffle on this one, very similiar teams
in that they need their D and ST to win and O to perform moderately. Neither can come back, so they should be looking to front run again to notch another victory
With ST injuries to both teams, we may see much better than normal field position for each team, thus I'm think'g the total might be easier vs side.
If I knew that HOU will feed RB Blue, I'd give them the edge, but last week vs NYG was really odd for me to see.
BUF gets the edge right now, their D can stop the run, 
Can HOU D stop the run even w/their recent p/u of NT Pickett?

09/28 1:00 PM
257 TEN 45½ UNDER
258 IND -7½ ****

IND should be favored by 2TDs, any other questions?
IND D numerous injuries
TEN QB Whitehurst starts, if he does well, I would sit Locker.
IND O should be running all over TEN D

09/28 1:00 PM
259 CAR 41 UNDER
260 BAL -3 ***

just thinking BAL WR Smith will be way UP for this game
CAR OL has issues...
BAL LT Hurst starts (rookie)

09/28 1:00 PM
261 DET -1½ *
262 NYJ 45 over?

CHI beat NYJ at home, can another NFC North team do NYJ in?
DET new Kicker Henery

09/28 1:00 PM
263 TB 44½ *UNDER*
264 PIT -7½ **

does anyone think TB will hang within 3TDs?

09/28 4:05 PM
265 JAC 44½ **UNDER**
266 SD -13 ***

JAC QB Bortles starts? It won't matter...

09/28 4:25 PM
267 PHI 50½ *
268 SF -5½ over

PHI has been having it's way, coming back in the 2nd half, I wonder if that stops here?
2 teams  opposite directions?
a tale of two halves
SF 1st half team
PHI 2nd half team
PHI has played 3 different games defensively

09/28 4:25 PM
269 ATL -3 **
270 MIN 46½ UNDER

I was thinking this was a dome team game, but was gently reminded of MIN new temporary digs. MIN new QB, RB, new low?

09/28 8:30 PM
271 NO -3 **OVER**
272 DAL 53 *

Hoping for a game of fireworks, but if DAL has any brains, it's run on NO..

09/29 8:30 PM
273 NE -3½ ***UNDER***
274 KC 45 *

I'm surprised the spread isn't more

Thursday, September 25, 2014

2014 - week 04 - TNF - picks

Over the total seems to be the sensible play.....
I know, I'm picking against an early season trend of the home team winning ATS & SU on Thursday Night Football, but taking the points in division games is a normal thing for me..

rest of the weekend to follow...

09/25 8:25 PM
101 NYG 45½ *
102 WAS -3½ OVER

WAS appears to be more beat up than NYG

2014 - week 03 - results

Much better results than past two weeks. I hope to get better....

NYG O,D,ST finally get going, HOU O sputters too much, middle of D can't stop run
PIT really surprises me with domination of CAR. CAR QB Newton should sit until he heals, he seems much more tentative
Superbowl rematch w/DEN @SEA, and I couldn't get the side or total correct

2014 - week 03 results

Saturday, September 20, 2014

2014 * Offense - Defense (Efficiency & QB Ratings) * week 02

2014 * Offense - Defense * week 02

1st column 'team', 2nd column 'Offense-Defense Efficiency', 3rd column 'number of wins', 4th column 'Offense-Defense QB ratings' this is kept in larger columns for each division

The teams are sorted by efficiency first, wins, QB ratings (NFL)

It's a little tough to see, but after two weeks of games there are surprises. The biggest surprise among 2-0 teams is HOU, but considering their opponents so far, (WAS & OAK) the numbers look really good for them. In this early part of the season, HOU is way a UP there in the clouds.

The biggest pretender among 2-0 teams is PHI, some will argue BUF or ARI, but the numbers state PHI. Needing two second half comebacks also seems to play into the numbers skewing against PHI.

Among the 0-2 teams, KC appears to be among the bottom 5 in the league, hovering nearby is also PIT, another team that may be in for a long season as well. The teams performing the best with 0-2 records are NO and IND. Their numbers are comparable to a number of 1-1 teams, I expect them to step on up some time soon, this week? next week?

Injuries have really curtailed the performance of some teams. Either injuries to key players or just a multitude of injuries have been too much for some teams to overcome. What's really noticeable to me is the disparity between the good and bad teams in their divisions. HOU and CAR have huge edges at this time. The NFC North appears to have the most parity among themselves. The toughest division is again the NFC West, with no team posting a negative efficiency and only STL with a negative QB rating.

It's still early in the season, I need to remember to post another snapshot after week 4 as a quarter of the season will have be decided and a clearer picture will emerge.

Friday, September 19, 2014

2014 - week 03 - rest of the week picks

So Thursday was a thrashing for the whole football world to see, pretty boring if you ask me...

9/20 UPDATE: changed pick GB/Over to DET/Over
9/20 UPDATE: changed pick PHI/Over to WAS/Over
9/20 UPDATE: changed pick MIA/Under to KC/Over
9/20 UPDATE: changed pick DAL/Under to STL/Over

09/21 1:00 PM
451 SD 44 **
452 BUF -2½ UNDER

SD coming off a high beating SEA SB champs on the road
so they should be able to beat BUF right?

09/21 1:00 PM
453 DAL -1 *over
454 STL 44½ *

I wonder if DAL is a road warrior this year? SU this year so far 0-1 @home, 1-0 on the road
changed pick from DAL/Under to STL/Over
STL looks like they will run the ball, STL QB Davis appears to be fairly accurate
STL should be motivated w/last year's loss to DAL

09/21 1:00 PM
455 WAS 50½ *
456 PHI -6½ *over

if the NFC East are homer teams then this fits the billing
well so far, only WAS fits the homer profile so far
change pick from PHI/Over to WAS/Over

09/21 1:00 PM
457 HOU -1½ ***
458 NYG 41½ under

another cupcake on HOU schedule, see vsWAS wk1 @OAK wk2

09/21 1:00 PM
459 MIN 49½ over
460 NO -10 **

NO CB Robinson is getting beat regularly, so I think MIN should be able to move the ball, but can they do it consistently. I like the side much more than the total

09/21 1:00 PM
461 TEN 42½ UNDER
462 CIN -7 ***

TEN really surprised me in week 1, but KC does have injury issues. CIN looks like cream of the crop at this time

09/21 1:00 PM
463 BAL -1½ *
464 CLE 41½ under

This is a gauge game for CLE, BAL has had 10 days to prep. 
Under the total maybe the best bet as both teams have stout Ds and try to run the ball consistently. I see FGs....

09/21 1:00 PM
465 GB 52½ *OVER*
466 DET -2½ *

GB has a lot of early season injuries, DET still plays like a young team, so maybe at home they'll get the win. I like the total to go way over...
changing pick from GB/Over to DET/Over

09/21 1:00 PM
467 IND -7 over
468 JAC 45½ *

One of these 0-2 teams has to win, IND should win, I'm unsure if they'll cover. JAC should be playing way up for this div game.

09/21 1:00 PM
469 OAK 47 under
470 NE -14 **

just what the doctor ordered for NE, another cupcake...

09/21 4:05 PM
471 SF -3 *UNDER*
472 ARI 42 *

another defensive slugfest, I think I'll take the points

09/21 4:25 PM
473 DEN 48 **
474 SEA -5½ over

OOooo a SB rematch and the champs lost a game last week.
So if DEN has the formula to beat SEA, can they execute it?

09/21 4:25 PM
475 KC 42½ *
476 MIA -4 *over*

it's hard to take KC with all their early season injuries
changed pick from MIA/Under to KC/Over

09/21 8:30 PM
477 PIT 41½ UNDER
478 CAR -3½ **

PIT has had 10 days to prep, but CAR D is better than BAL

09/22 8:35 PM
479 CHI 45½ *
480 NYJ -3 OVER

it's MNF and NYJ Offense should be able to score, I just don't know if their secondary will keep up with the Marshalls and Jefferies...

Thursday, September 18, 2014

2014 - week 03 - TNF picks

Just can't find the time to pick all this weeks game at the moment, so for now here's Thursday picks and rest will follow
09/18 8:25 PM
301 TB 47 UNDER
302 ATL -6 ***

TB HC Smith lost confidence? in QB McCown?

Tuesday, September 16, 2014

2014 - week 02 - results

What a weekend, I sucked again, guess it shows when I don't get to watch enough games. I'm glad I've been only picking side and totals... (and not doing anything else).

With the recent news of MIN RB Peterson deactivated the day before the game, my guess it was a deflater for the team, since a realistic backup for All-Day is still a major drop off.
Unlike CAR which also had a late deactivation of DE Greg Hardy, but they have replacements.
The other situation worth mentioning is the suspension of xBAL RB Ray Rice, which I believed occurred last Sunday on game day for BAL and may have affected them for their game vs CIN, but by the time the Thursday game had rolled around BAL had rallied around each other and soundly defeated PIT.
MIA has a costly emotional win vs NE, last week and this weekend they had to shuffle their front 7 on D and BUF took advantage as well as on ST.

2014 - week 02 - results

Thursday, September 11, 2014

2014 - week 02 - picks

hopefully this week will be better ATS

09/11 8:25 PM
101 PIT 44½ *
102 BAL -3 under


09/14 1:00 PM
251 DET 43½ *
252 CAR -3 *OVER*

09/14 1:00 PM
253 MIA 43½ *
254 BUF -1 *OVER*

LY BUF 2-0 vs MIA, 
wk7 @MIA 23-21
wk16 @BUF 19-0

09/14 1:00 PM
255 JAC 43½ *
256 WAS -6 UNDER

JAC SS Cyprien OUT?
WAS SS Meriweather susp'd G1-2

09/14 1:00 PM
257 DAL 49½ UNDER
258 TEN -3½ *

DAL RCB Scandrick susp'd G1-4
TEN D good scheme

09/14 1:00 PM
259 ARI -2½ ***
260 NYG -42½ UNDER


09/14 1:00 PM
261 NE -3 OVER
262 MIN 49½ **

09/14 1:00 PM
263 NO -6½ *
264 CLE 47½ over

CLE RB Tate knee OUT?
CLE RB West starts
CLE TE Cameron D2D shoulder

09/14 1:00 PM
265 ATL 48½ *OVER
266 CIN -5½ *

CIN TE Eifert elbow OUT
CIN MLB Burfict concussion OUT
switched pick from ATL/O to CIN/O

09/14 4:05 PM
267 STL 37½ UNDER
268 TB -6½ *

STL QB3 Austin starts?
STL DE Long OUT 8+?wks
TB last week slow start, 2nd Half come back
TB LG Mankins OUT? last week Q2 knee

09/14 4:05 PM
269 SEA -6 **
270 SD 44½ under

SD C Hardwick OUT IR-OFY

09/14 4:25 PM
271 HOU -3 *
272 OAK 40 under

HOU DE Clowney OUT

09/14 4:25 PM
273 NYJ 46½ UNDER
274 GB -8½ ***

09/14 4:25 PM
275 KC 51 UNDER?
276 DEN -12½ *

KC LB D Johnson IR OFY
DEN WR Welker susp'd G1-4

09/14 8:30 PM
277 CHI 48½ **over**
278 SF -7 *

switched pick from CHI/O to SF/O
CHI LG,C,WR2,RB2 inj'd

09/15 8:35 PM
279 PHI 53½ OVER
280 IND -3 *


2014 - week 01 - results

not good enough W-L-P 6-8-2 ATS , very good W-L 11-5 Totals

2014 - week 01 - results

Thursday, September 04, 2014

2014 - week 01 - picks

really unsure with MIN @STL, I could pick either side and total, went with the DOG/Under combo, but I could've picked FAV/U or FAV/O or DOG/O over

09/04 8:30 PM
461 GB 45 *
462 SEA -5½ over

GB O vs SEA D?
SEA O vs GB D?

09/07 1:00 PM
463 NO 52 ****
464 ATL -1 over

NO owns ATL
ATL D have they improved? ?FS?
ATL ST major improvement VETSx3

09/07 1:00 PM
465 MIN 45½ *
466 STL -6 under


09/07 1:00 PM
467 CLE 40½ under
468 PIT -6 ***

CLE a lot of hoopla at QB
PIT owns CLE

09/07 1:00 PM
469 JAC 52 *under 
470 PHI -11 *

JAC D front 4 significant improvement
taking pts seems prudent, but OL???
JAC RT Bradfield a liability?

09/07 1:00 PM
471 OAK 40 under
472 NYJ -5 *

OAK O n D, don't expect much
OAK QB Carr 1st start
NYJ 2ndary, no time to gell

09/07 1:00 PM
473 CIN 43½ *
474 BAL -2½ over?

CIN on the rise?
BAL 2ndary? FS? SS?

09/07 1:00 PM
475 BUF 48½ *UNDER*
476 CHI -6½ *

strength vs strength
BUF D GOOD! O just the opposite
CHI O GOOD! D just the opposite
it's tempting to take BUF
but BUF QB Manuel has accuracy issues

09/07 1:00 PM
477 WAS 46 *UNDER*
478 HOU -2½ *

WAS SS Meriweather susp'd G1-2
HOU O work in progress, D up!?

09/07 1:00 PM
479 TEN 44 UNDER
480 KC -6 ***

TEN O needs to stick w/run game, pass O suspect
TEN D tackling issue
TEN ST most dynamic KR? & PR? Washington & McCluster

09/07 1:00 PM
481 NE -3½ *****
482 MIA 47½ UNDER

MIA O? OL ?????
MIA Air Raid?
note: NE played PHI in preseason and held joint practices, you would think NE is really prep'd

09/07 4:25 PM
483 CAR -1 ****
484 TB 39½ **UNDER**

CAR QB Newton ribs OUT? miss'd Wed
CAR Qb Anderson w/1's on Wed
CAR O? just run? pass?
TB OL ????
TB OC Tedford recovering surgery 10+days ago

09/07 4:25 PM
485 SF -5½ **OVER**
486 DAL 49 *

DAL needs to win high scoring game
SF D doubtful for high scores
SF O ball control?
SF ST much younger TY

09/07 8:30 PM
487 IND 55½ *
488 DEN -7 **under**

IND GcG have nearly no(0) time to gel during PS
IND DE/LB Mathis susp'd G1-4
DEN WR Welker susp'd G1-4

09/08 7:10 PM
489 NYG 46 *over?
490 DET -4 *

DET HC Caldwell, can't trust O

09/08 10:20 PM
491 SD 44½ over
492 ARI -3½ *

SD needs to win high score O games, D porous
SD D can't stop run