Monday, September 25, 2006

Week 4

GM# TEAM spread BOLD - favored side or total, Green - Best Bet

401 IND -9 X
402 NYJ 46 U

403 SD -2.5 U
404 BAL 33.5 X
SD coming off bye

405 MIN 34.5 X
406 BUF -1 U

407 DAL -9.5 X
408 TEN 37 U
DAL coming off bye

409 SF 40 X
410 KC -7 O
KC coming off bye

411 NO 42 X
412 CAR -7 U

413 ARI 40.5 U
414 ATL -7.5 X
ATL going into bye

415 MIA -4 X they call HOU the cure for an O ailments
416 HOU 40 O
HOU going into bye

417 DET 44 O
418 STL -6 X

419 NE 46 U
420 CIN -6 X
CIN going into bye

421 JAC -3 X
422 WAS 34.5 U

423 CLE -3 X
424 OAK 34 U
OAK coming off bye

425 SEA 35 X
426 CHI -3.5 O
SEA going into bye

427 GB 48 O
428 PHI -11 X

Sunday, September 24, 2006

results week 3

game 1, 0-2
game 2, 1-1, win
game 3, 1-0-1, push
game 4, 1-1
game 5, 1-1
game 6, 0-1-1 , loss best bet
game 7, 0-2, loss best bet
game 8, 1-1, win
game 9, 1-1, loss best bet, near upset of BAL by CLE
game 10, 1-1, road upset by STL
game 11, 1-1, win - who could have seen the over?
game 12, 1-1
game 13, 1-1, win best bet
game 14, 1-1, lost best bet

ATS weekly
overall:11-15-2
favored side or total: 4-9-1
best bets: 1-4 ...yikes!!

ATS season
overall: 47-41-4
favored side or total: 21-22-3
best bets: 3-6-1

Tuesday, September 19, 2006

week 3

gm# TEAMs (spread, O/U) BOLD favored side or total, italics weaker pick, GREEN best bet
199 NYJ 34.5 U
200 BUF -5.5 X
initially I took BUF, but decided on under instead. BUF's D should dominate game, 5.5 may be too much to cover. see http://www.footballoutsiders.com/2006/09/19/ramblings/any-given-sunday/4254/ midway down BUF's real secret is the #1 ST in NFL and conservative O play calling

201 CIN 41.5 X
202 PIT -1.5 U
I believe 1st half will be lower scoring than expected, PIT will score more than on MNF, but CIN will ultimately prevail, get the points while you can, by Sunday you may have to lay points w/CIN (*note PIT has a bye next week*)

203 JAC 44.5 X
204 IND -7 U
JAC w/it's great D and 7 pts are the money winner here, my only concern is the short week for JAC. I'm thinkin under though IND D is a couple of steps down from JAC D, this may really be an over contest, I'm just thinkin IND D will get some players back from INJ list

205 TEN 35.5 X
206 MIA -11 O
MIA should win but covering 11 is a lot, so total is much more tempting, though checking on TEN you'll notice that they only scored in 4th qtr and difference in scores for MIA games were 11 & 10 (game 1 & 2) so there is a likelyhood of covering w/a larger number, say 14?

207 WAS -4 X
208 HOU 37.5 U
I have a hard time taking WAS as O seems to be ineffective, it's just that HOU has OL inj's and will most likely have an OL shuffle w/2 positions. Here's a game where WAS D will win the game and their O will be setup w/easy field position

209 CHI -3 X
210 MIN 34 U
I believe MIN D is under rated, their OL has played very well, but CHI D is great and their O should score enough to cover the 3 pts. It was tough to pick either a side or total since I like each pick

211 CAR -3 X
212 TB 34 U
TB has OL issues and thus CAR should cover and total will go under again hard to pick either side or total as I really like both picks (* note TB going into bye week *)

213 GB 38.5 O
214 DET -7 X
GB's first road game of the year and at home they've allowed 26 & 34 pts (CHI & NO). Over is the only real worthwhile play though DET has not scored much (6 & 7, SEA & CHI). I just expect a much higher output from DET @home, but I couldn't really say they'll cover 7

215 BAL -6.5 X
216 CLE 33 U
BAL is clearly a playoff contender and CLE has a few more years, the total should go under as well

217 STL 45 U
218 ARI -4.5 X
I'm having a tough time picking either a side or total as STL is a bit of an enigma to me

219 NYG 44 U
220 SEA -3.5 X
2nd week in a row NYG gets to play a tough D, though I expect SEA knows how to close out games, the 1/2 pt hook should entice a lot of NYG bettors, though I expect the pros to look at the under first then SEA, I like both picks and chose the side due to the home field advantage of normally -3 (* NYG going into bye week *)

221 PHI -6 X
222 SF 42 U
Tough luck loss for PHI last week? or lesson on closing games? PHI should win and cover 6, I did notice that SF stats are dramatically better than last year on both O and D, I'm just counting on 10 to 14 pts and around 24pts from PHI

223 DEN 39 U
224 NE -7 X
DEN O appears to be on a downward spiral, NE scores at least 4 times a game so max 28 or min 12 and mid of 20, both side and total were very tempting (* DEN going into bye week *)

225 ATL -3.5 X
226 NO 42 U
NO has been doing very well on the road scoring pts. Look for ATL to dominate 1st half and perhaps let NO into the game in the 2nd half (4th qtr), though ATL D appears to be formidable and I don't believe NO will score more than 10 pts.

(* note - picking against the teams going into the bye week is just a coincidence. Last week teams going into bye week were 2-2 SU and 3-1 ATS. DAL & SD 2-0, KC 1-1, OAK 0-2 *)

Sunday, September 17, 2006

results week 2

Game #, ATS result, favored side or total - notation if best bet

game 1, 1-0-1, Under 34 Oak @Bal (push, best bet)
game 2, 1-1, IND -13.5, (win) I guess I could have chosen over, I just expected a little more D from both teams
game 3, 2-0, CIN -11 (win)
game 4, 2-0, under 37 BUF @MIA (win)
game 5, 0-2, DET +8.5 - ouch CHI D really dominated and DET's D well ....
game 6, 2-0, MIN +2 (win)
game 7, 1-1, NYG +3 (win) didn't expect over 42
game 8, 2-0, ATL -6 (win, best bet)
game 9, 1-1, under 38 NO @GB - another game where over the total was just not what I would expect
game 10, 1-1, STL -3 (loss, best bet), how can STL beat DEN but not beat SF???
game 11, 1-1, over 46.5 ARI @SEA - SEA covers but an under instead of over :-(
game 12, 0-2, under 37 NE @NYJ - just not enough w/NYJ you'd think Mangini would keep the score a little closer
game 13, 1-1, SD -11.5 (win)
game 14, 1-1, under 40 KC @DEN (win) - DEN what's going on?
game 15, 1-0-1, under 37 WAS @DAL (push)
game 16, 2-0, under 36.5 PIT @JAC (win)

ATS - weekly
overall: 19-11-2
favored side or total: 9-5-2
best bet: 0-1-1

ATS - season
overall: 36-26-2
favored side or total: 17-13-2
best bet: 2-2-1

Monday, September 11, 2006

week 2

I'm posting picks early as I will be working this weekend ...
(BOLD = favored side or total, green = best bet )

401 OAK 34 U
402 BAL -11.5 X
OAK did not look good at all, BAL is on a SB run w/McNair, Lewis and Co.

403 HOU 47 U
404 IND -13.5 X
Question, Just how much will IND score?

405 CLE 42 O
406 CIN -11 X
this game could go under 42. I just expect CIN to score 6x and whether its 30pts or 42pts they'll easily cover w/their home opener. CLE has multiple inj's in secondary.

407 BUF 37 X
408 MIA -7 U
had to take the points, I still believe MIA @home will play well and most likely win. It's just that BUF played well vs NE and I'm hoping for another close game.

409 DET 32 X
410 CHI -8.5 U
this may be my favorite 2 picker of the weekend

411 CAR -2 U
412 MIN 37 X
short week for MIN, but this is their home opener and I like home dogs especially w/CAR and OL shuffle w/3 players. Take this game on moneyline (-110) it may be late as game is now a pick'm

413 NYG 42 X
414 PHI -3 U
this may be the best matchup of the weekend

415 TB 36 U
416 ATL -6 X
TB has 2 starting OG not playing again this week, ATL in a rout (I'm hoping their DE's Kearney and Abraham play)

417 NO -1.5 X
418 GB 38 U
Is GB that bad that @home NO is favored? NO can stop the run, it'll be up to Favre and Co to turn it up at home, if their ST can win their game then they have a good chance of winning

419 STL -3 X
420 SF 44 U
STL D is on the rise and should cover easily, I'm just not sure of the over/under

421 ARI 46.5 O
422 SEA -7 X
Is DET that good? Their D definitely has risen or has SEA started on the road w/SB blues.
ARI let SF score 2x, I think SEA can double that and ARI will fall 1 TD short, that makes 7TD's

423 NE -6 U
424 NYJ 37 X
It's scary to take the points, 'cause Brady throws more on the road and can cover -6. Taking under is not a solid bet either as I can make the case for the over.

425 TEN 38.5 U
426 SD -11.5 X
Ouch that SD D is what will allow SD to cover the double digit number

427 KC 40 U
428 DEN -10 X
KC w/o QB T Green is why this spread is this large, cause DEN was mightly upset on the road @STL. Under 40 is the way to go and yes you can make a case for KC +10

429 WAS 37 U
430 DAL -5.5 X
get it while you can, even at -7 the 'boys should have a decent chance of covering the spread

431 PIT pk U
432 JAC 36.5 X
It's interesting that JAC isn't giving up 3 @home, instead this is a pick'm game and the under is the best bet.

results week 1 day 3

game 15, 1-1, MIN +4.5 (win) just short of going over (.5)
game 16, 1-1, under 43.5 SD @OAK (win)

ATS
overall 17-15
favored side or total 8-8
best bet 2-1

results week 1 day 2

game 2, 1-1, DEN -3.5 (best bet loss) ** this has got to be the biggest upset of the weekend**
game 3, 2-0, NYJ +3 (win)
game 4, 1-1, NE -8 ** a near upset, BUF was opportunistic
game 5, 1-1, TB -3 - on the road BAL impressive
game 6, 1-1, CIN +3 (best bet win) bettors changed the spread to pick'm or -1 on game day
game 7, 1-1, SEA -6 - DET D played very well
game 8, 2-0, ATL +6 (new) w/new teammates, they are back!
game 9, 1-1, PHI -4 (best bet win) - just not enough for over ...
game 10, 2-0, under 37 NO @CLE (win)
game 11, 0-2, under 36.5 - bettors changed the spread to DAL -1 on game day
game 12, 1-1, over 35 CHI @ GB
game 13, 0-2, under 42 SF @ARI
game 14, 1-1, IND -3 (win)

ATS
overall 15-13
favored side or total 6-8
best bet 2-1

Friday, September 08, 2006

results week 1 day 1

game 1, 1-1, under 34 MIA @PIT

ATS
overall 1-1
favored side or total 0-1
best bet 0-0

Friday, September 01, 2006

results preseason week 4 day 2

game 13, 1-1, GB -3 - bettors moved the number to TEN -1.5 due to reports of starters playing longer (now only if I had that info before I made my picks)

game 14, 0-2, PHI @NYJ under 33.5
game 15, 1-1, CIN -2.5 (win)
game 16, 1-1, SF -3.5 (win)

ATS
overall: 18-14
favored side or total: 11-5
best bet: 1-0