Wednesday, April 24, 2013

2013 International games - likely impact


wk04 PIT vs MIN @Wembley, England
wk08 SF vs JAC @Wembley, England
wk13 ATL vs BUF @Toronto, Canada

The disadvantage: An extra road game vs out of conference opponents.


Team Prior Game, Next Game
MIN home vs CLE, going into bye
(CLE, PIT, @BAL, @CIN)

JAC home vs SD, going into bye
(@SEA, @STL, SF, ARI)

BUF coming off bye, road @TB
(CAR, @NO, ATL, @TB)

The likely outcome, a loss by all three home teams [MIN, JAC, BUF], as they all three lose the advantage of a home game in front of their fans.




PIT home vs CHI, going into bye
(CHI, @MIN, DET, @GB)

SF  road @TEN, going into bye
(IND, HOU, @TEN, @JAC)

ATL home vs NO, road @GB
(@MIA, NE, MIA @BUF)


The opponents, no discernable disadvantages:

PIT is in the drivers seat, early season, @home prior week, going into bye week.

SF a little tougher 2nd game on the road, if anything, they may elect to stay in the area (TEN) then fly to England or just fly and practice in England (seems more sensible). SF has already done this in prior seasons, electing to stay on the road, instead of coming home between games and it's proven to be effective with wins while staying on the road (road warriors)

ATL, a little bit of a concern due to lateness in the season, but it will be a dome game, which ATL is much more used to than BUF. ATL will be pinched between a division rival and potential playoff opponent, thus this game could be a let down for ATL, but BUF appears to be in their eternal re-building mode, thus at this time of the season, if they aren't in the playoff hunt, count them out.

ARI is hoping for the Arian effect

As everyone knows, Bruce Arians in now the head coach for ARI, so I thought to take a look at this years schedule and his record at his prior stops in recent years. A short breakdown can be found at the bottom of this post.

What jumps out is that this will be the third consecutive year that Arians will face opponents from the AFC South and this appears to be in his favor. He's 7-3 over the past two years, losing twice @HOU and once at home to JAC.

I also noticed that he has won the majority of division games (4-2 IND) (4-2 PIT)

Another noticeable record is with "Peer" games. These teams ended their prior season in a similar standing withing their division. Arians is 4-0

This year he is in a tough division with both SF and SEA having formidable teams and STL not too shabby either, thus it's unlikely they'll have a winning division record, it's more likely he'll end up 3-3 or 2-4 (I'm thinking either SF or SEA will win twice)

Facing the NFC South could be troublesome, ATL is in it's Superbowl window, NO could prove to be back on the upswing this year. I'm more concerned with TB as they have now a formidable secondary and a decent front 7 that combined with their run game @home could prove to be too much for ARI to overcome for a week 4 game. CAR will be coming off a bye week and will be likely hungry with a 1-2 record, but since I still don't have faith in their O and they will be on the road, I think they'll lose to ARI.

Versus the AFC South, ARI will face HOU and IND at home and JAC and TEN on the road, which from my view shows they've been blessed by the scheduling gods for their out of conference games and again should produce a winning record or at least a respectable 2-2 record.

As far as winning peer games, you'd expect a winning record from Arians and company, but I'm unsure. DET has talent, but they've yet to put together a consistent winning streak. Arians did upset DET last year, so DET will likely be up for their game. PHI will also have a new HC, without an NFL track record and since the game is on week 13 @PHI, and ARI will be traveling in December to an outdoor stadium, I don't believe they'll win this game. Who know what will be the situation that late in the season? If either team is in the hunt for the playoffs, then you'd need to favor that team, if both, favor home team, if neither, unknown.

If Arians guides his team into the playoffs, well... I'd expect them to lose as he's lost that first playoff game in each of the past two seasons.

Right now, prior to the draft, I'm hopeful that Arians & Co., will achieve an 7-9 record.



ARI 2013 SEASON
Opponents: NFC W, NFC S, AFC S, DET @PHI

Results: ?

IND 2012 SEASON
Opponents: AFC S, AFC E, NFC N, CLE, @KC, Playoffs @BAL

vs AFC S
LOST 17-22 VS JAC WK03 *UPSET*
WON 19-13 @TEN WK08 *UPSET*
WON 27-10 @JAC WK10
WON 27-23 VS TEN LOST ATS WK14
LOST 17-29 @HOU WK15
WON 28-16 VS HOU WK17 *UPSET*

vs AFC E
LOST 35-9 @NYJ WK06
WON 23-20 VS MIA WK09 *UPSET*
LOST 24-59 @NE WK11
WON 20-13 VS BUF WK12

vs NFC N
LOST 21-41 @CHI WK01
WON 23-20 VS MIN WK02 *UPSET*
WON 30-27 VS GB WK05 *UPSET*
WON 35-33 @DET WK13 *UPSET*

vs Peers
WON 17-13 VS CLE WK07
WON 20-13 @KC WK16

Playoffs
LOST 9-24 @BAL

PIT 2011 SEASON
Opponents: AFC N, AFC S, NFC W, NE, @KC, Playoffs @DEN

vs AFC N
LOST 7-35 @BAL WK01
LOST 20-23 VS BAL WK09 *UPSET*
WON 24-17 @CIN WK10
WON 35-7 VS CIN WK13
WON 14-3 VS CLE LOST ATS WK14
WON 13-9 @CLE LOST ATS WK17

vs AFC S
WON 23-20 @IND LOST ATS WK03
LOST 10-17 @HOU WK04
WON 38-17 VS TEN WK05
WON 17-13 VS JAC LOST ATS WK06

vs NFC W
WON 24-0 VS SEA WK02
WON 32-20 @ARI WK07
LOST 3-23 @SF WK15
WON 27-0 VS STL WK16

vs Peers
WON 25-17 VS NE WK 08 *UPSET*
WON 13-9 @KC LOST ATS WK012

Playoffs
LOST 23-29 @DEN *UPSET*