Monday, December 31, 2012

2012 - week 18 - playoffs - picks

01/05 4:30 PM

101 CIN 43½ *
102 HOU -4½ OVER

HOU O has been so sporadic and CIN D is their real strength

01/05 8:00 PM
103 MIN 46 UNDER
104 GB -8 *

MIN should fall down from emo high of last weeks win. GB has yet to lose two in a row this season

01/06 1:00 PM
105 IND 46½ over
106 BAL -6½ *

on instinct I chose BAL and OVER, but after looking at the numbers ATS, picking IND seems to be the right thing to do, 46.5 may be a bit high, but road teams that win, tend to be an over game. BAL may yet win, but -6.5 is probably too much for them to cover
UPDATE: BAL MLB Ray Lewis announced retirement is one of those situational bets that's hard to ignore, (last game at home by a great team member), this will be a great lift emotionally for BAL. We already know of the 'Chuck Strong' incentive for IND and I think they're due for a let down, coupled with their inability to generate TO's (the worst of the remaining teams in the playoffs) and some other miserable stats, so I'm going back to instinct

01/06 4:30 PM
107 SEA -3 *
108 WAS 45½ OVER

Though I do like watching WAS O, SEA overall is a much stronger team

2012 - week 17 - results

An ok weekend I was above .500 ATS and dead even with totals. On the really bright side I correctly picked the side and total for six games, that's over a third correct

Odd how I missed late games again, picked correctly SU, but not ATS

CAR winning on the road was surprising, somehow I thought NO D would play better against the run.

I had thought about taking NYG, but took the win the last game for the coach angle, but when the opening onside kick by PHI did not lead to pts, I knew PHI was doomed.

HOU did not look good, MIN won on an emo high and I'm wondering if I should put WAS in the same category.

Thursday, December 27, 2012

2012 - week 17 - picks

Saturday, updated lines, switched pick from PIT to CLE (getting 10pts)

12/30 1:00 PM
301 NYJ 39½ UNDER
302 BUF -3½ ***

oh jets we jest

12/30 4:25 PM
303 MIA 46½ under
304 NE -10 *

NE could win #1 or #2 seed

12/30 1:00 PM
305 BAL 41 UNDER
306 CIN -2½ **

bragging rights?
win or lose, both teams still in playoffs

12/30 1:00 PM
307 CLE 34½ *
308 PIT -10 UNDER

PIT should get the season split

12/30 1:00 PM
309 HOU -6½ over
310 IND 46½ *

HOU could win #1 or #2 seed
IND win or lose, still in playoffs

12/30 1:00 PM
311 JAC 42 under
312 TEN -4 *


12/30 1:00 PM
313 PHI 46 *
314 NYG -7½ UNDER

NYG needs win + DAL/CHI/MIN losses

12/30 8:30 PM
315 DAL 48½ OVER
316 WAS -3 *

DAL win and they're in
WAS win and they're in, lose still has a chance

12/30 1:00 PM
317 CHI -3 over
318 DET 44½ **

CHI needs win + MIN loss

12/30 4:25 PM
319 GB -3½ under
320 MIN 46½ *

GB win = 1st round bye, #2 seed
MIN win and they're in

12/30 1:00 PM
321 TB 45½ *
322 ATL -5 UNDER

ATL has secured first round and home field advantage
TB should be UP for this game

12/30 1:00 PM
323 CAR 54 UNDER
324 NO -5 *

12/30 4:25 PM
325 KC 42 UNDER
326 DEN -16 *

DEN could win #1 or #2 seed

12/30 4:25 PM
327 OAK 39½ UNDER
328 SD -9½ *


12/30 4:25 PM
329 ARI 39 UNDER
330 SF -16½ *

SF win = NFC West and #2 seed if GB loss
It might be better to go with dog

12/30 4:25 PM
331 STL 41 UNDER
332 SEA -10½ *

SEA win + SF loss = NFC West and #2 seed It might be better to go with dog

Wednesday, December 26, 2012

2012 - week 16 - results

Really good week ATS, just .500 for totals

I'm a bit late posting results as I'm still awaiting the Game Book .pdf file on the site for the ATL @DET game. I've tried to contact via 'contact us' link on their website to inform them that the game book is missing for the ATL @DET game. Though I am able to gleen some information from what's online, the accuracy that the gamebook .pdf file represents as an official record of the game itself is what I use an data entries for my spreadsheet and the accuracy of other sites is an unknown at this time.

NE couldn't cover a -14.5 spread on the road and DEN covered a -13 spread at home.
CHI and ARI are hard to read for me as they're not consistent enough in winning or losing.
I could've taken SEA using the split division or comparing how well STL has done vs SF this season

Sunday, December 23, 2012

2012 - week 16 - picks

whoops, must have hit save instead of publish.... sigh..

12/22 8:30 PM
101 ATL -3½ *
102 DET 50½ over

12/23 1:00 PM
103 TEN 46½ under
104 GB -12½ **

12/23 1:00 PM
105 OAK 46 UNDER
106 CAR -8½ *

12/23 1:00 PM
107 BUF 41½ under
108 MIA -4½ *

MIA should get season split

12/23 1:00 PM
109 CIN 42½ *
110 PIT -3½ over

CIN should earn season split

12/23 1:00 PM
111 NE -14½ **
112 JAC 50½ under

12/23 1:00 PM
113 IND -6½ **
114 KC 41½ UNDER

Where's KC O to come from? run O?

12/23 1:00 PM
115 NO 51½ *
116 DAL -3 over

12/23 1:00 PM
117 WAS -6½ *
118 PHI 45 over

12/23 1:00 PM
119 STL 43½ *
120 TB -3 over

12/23 4:25 PM
121 NYG -2½ UNDER
122 BAL 47½ *

BAL should be UP for this game against defending SB champs and they'll know they are the underdog

12/23 1:00 PM
123 MIN 44½ *
124 HOU -7½ under

somehow I think, MIN will stay within number

12/23 4:05 PM
125 CLE 44½ *
126 DEN -13 under

I just think CLE can play keep away to stay within number

12/23 4:25 PM
127 CHI -5½ UNDER
128 ARI 36½ *

Do I really have to pick? sigh...

12/23 8:30 PM
129 SF -1 *
130 SEA 39½ *UNDER*

12/23 1:00 PM
131 SD 38½ **
132 NYJ -2½ UNDER

Another game, that I rather just stay away from

Tuesday, December 18, 2012

2012 - week 15 - results

So I ended up 8-8 for both sides and totals, better than last week, but not good enough, I could've
changed a few picks prior to Sunday, but again I decided to stick with original picks

Weekend obsevations:
NYG making mistakes and good teams take advantage, which is exactly what ATL did funny again I noticed a run TD, a pass TD and a FG, by the team in the lead, (NE has done this more than once this year for their first 3 scores)
ATL getting revenge for last year's playoff loss vs NYG could have been angle to take. ATL just seems to be running well, mixing in passes, getting NYG D off balance for the most part.

FOX switched over to GB @CHI with less than two minutes in third quarter and GB stones CHI for four downs allowing a FG on fifth down (penalty on fourth down). This game doesn't seem anymore competitive than NYG @ATL, they should've switched over to WAS @CLE (if they had the broadcast rights)

FOX also shows last 2 minutes of MIN @STL, which should be called MIN runs away with win, just say ALL DAY...

DEN @BAL, D's for both teams play fairly well. With less than two minutes left in the half DEN CB Harris interception returned for a TD was a killer, taking the air out of the BAL home crowd and team as well. DEN connection Manning to Decker works a big play for TD and BAL 2ndary appears to have given in

CBS switched over to IND @HOU a much more interesting game, nearing the end of 3rd Q, HOU has field position edge, extends lead, D plays well, gains AFC South title.

This morning, a lot of one sided games, only WAS @CLE and IND @HOU appears to be competitive, though WAS really picks it up in 2nd half and HOU dominates Q4

PIT @DAL, odd seeing so many PIT fans in DAL, you'd have thought DAL would make it a home game, by having more DAL fans. I think it fired up DAL, they seemed to play with more passion at home. PIT D is suspect w/Polamalu having to roam deeper than normal. DAL O kept getting those 8-12yd chunks easily. Looks like PIT won't make playoffs this year, too many things have to go right for them to get into playoffs.

Was NE a bit over confident with home game in DEC streak? SF took it to them it the beginning, NE made a run at SF later on in the game, but it wasn't enough. As far as ebbs & flows throughout the game, SF withstood the floods and shored it up in the end. A memorable SNF game

Wednesday, December 12, 2012

2012 - week 15 - picks (includes Thursday)

12/13 8:25 PM

301 CIN -4½ ***
302 PHI 45½ under

Watched PHI @TB, TB DL played very well, 2ndary ok for the most part, TB O was off, timing, route running even play calling was a bit suspect. CIN should have won last week, can't see them losing to PHI whose OL will be mashed again by an even better DL

12/16 1:00 PM
303 GB -3 *
304 CHI 42½ over

normally I'd go with the season series split, but CHI has too much roster churn as well as looking like a 20's team (moves the ball between 20's, doesn't score often enough to win). GB don't beat up themselves just have better parts that play together more consistently especially on O

12/16 1:00 PM
305 NYG 51½ ***
306 ATL -1½ UNDER

So why is ATL favored?

12/16 1:00 PM
307 TB 54 *
308 NO -3½ under

TB should be able to get the series split
NO D embarrass'd? by NYG O last week

12/16 1:00 PM
309 MIN 38½ OVER
310 STL -3 *

The winner will have playoff hopes, the loser will not

12/16 1:00 PM
311 WAS 37½ ***
312 CLE -7 OVER

WAS QB RGIII will he play? even if not, WAS is playing overall fairly well and though CLE has been on a roll lately, I think they'll fail at home to end their 3G streak

12/16 1:00 PM
313 JAC 37½ UNDER
314 MIA -7 ***

JAC most banged up team? since Nov began cutting vets depth issues @OL, RB, WR, DL, LB

12/16 1:00 PM
315 DEN -2½ **UNDER**
316 BAL 48½ *

BAL OC Cameron fired, QB coach Caldwell (xIND HC) promoted to OC
BAL will need to play keep away from perhaps the smartest QB in the game today. This should be a close
game, taking pts seems prudent, UNDER the total is much more tempting

12/16 1:00 PM
317 IND 48 OVER
318 HOU -8 ***

HOU QB Shaub tends to put up big numbers, after a poor game. IND has been on a roll, a bit lucky, not sure if HOU will cover number, but ???

12/16 4:05 PM
319 CAR 45½ *
320 SD -3 over

You'd think CAR HC Rivera who was DC @SD, would have a much better game plan on how to stop QB Rivers & Co.

12/16 4:05 PM
321 SEA -5½ ****
322 BUF 42½ UNDER

BUF among most beat up teams

12/16 4:05 PM
323 DET -6 ****
324 ARI 43½ under

ARI quit?? ARI O is sooooo bad, I'm thinking DET O will not score more than 42pts

12/16 4:25 PM
325 PIT -2 *
326 DAL 44 over

PIT what to think?
DAL emo week? letdown game, drained game?
DAL WR Bryant plays?

12/16 4:25 PM
327 KC 43½ UNDER
328 OAK -3 ***

KC WR Bowe IR OFY (their #1WR), RB Charles inj'd?
OAK RCB & FB2 cut, youth movement

12/16 8:30 PM
329 SF 46½ UNDER
330 NE -5½ *

NE plays div opponents close and blows everyone else out the door since wk06 loss to SEA unsure who to take, but on the road SF QB Kaepernick, made mistakes, he probably needs more seasoning

12/17 8:40 PM
331 NYJ 41½ **
332 TEN -1½ UNDER

TEN DC distracted by TX Tech HC opportunity?
NYJ doing the weekly keep playoff hope alive

Tuesday, December 11, 2012

2012 - week 14 - results

2nd week in a row of not so good results for both ATS and Totals, though ATS improved, Totals sunk below .500 for the week

Game Thoughts:
DEN - a good win, though not quite dominating as they scored more FGs than TDs

NYG ST RB/PR Wilson great game, NO Brees does fairly well, but again throws too many interceptions, NO D, not tackling well that will do them in and ST allowing big gains, the whole team is not playing without enough focus to win games

Lots of upsets,

STL @BUF, predictable, BUF had to shuffle OL (though TEN also had OL shuffle but led IND on the road for about half of the game)

CHI @MIN, I should've taken MIN I knew better with CHI D hit hard by injuries and OL having issues, just hard to trust MIN O and play calling, in prior weeks I would've called more running plays

ATL @CAR, ATL letdown? next game after winning AFC South, but more likely two starters in secondary did not play SS and RCB
Stranger things have happened, but why is CAR starting LB Hogue @RG? or is this an error?
CAR also had FIVE new starters on D @NT, @DT, @SLB, @SS and @RCB, all three levels
CAR led 23-0 in Q3 and earns the season series split!

SD @PIT, I think PIT QB Roethlisberger came back too soon from injury, SD does have job motivation, after recent news of HC & GM will be losing their jobs at the end of season, players are playing/auditioning for next season

PHI @TB, eye opener, nice QB'g by PHI Foles, ??TB?? - I did not see this, I really thought TB D would be able to contain PHI O

DAL @CIN, CIN could've won, but let DAL hang around. DAL emo win w/tragic death on Saturday a.m. of a team mate and another team mate (starting NT) in jail for intoxication manslaughter.
Note: 2nd wk in a row, a tragic death for a team mate, provides emotional lift for whole team (KC, DAL)

current line vs prior to season line

DEN @OAK 9pt change
BAL @WAS 6pt change
KC @CLE 8pt change
PHI @TB 13pt change
ARI @SEA 6.5pt change

Only TB lost SU and ATS

a good sign for

not bad, pretty good, I like it..... ha ha ha

Tuesday, December 04, 2012

Week 14 - GRID

Here's the GRID prior to week 14 games

Bright Green have a playoff berth
Forest Green are leading their division
Orange are current wild card entrants if the playoffs were to begin today
Blue are teams with a chance to become playoff entrant

Somehow the AFC East has 4 teams that are still relevant for the playoffs, though as you can see I don't believe in NYJ and I think they'll lose on the road to the JAC who may not have much of a running game.

CIN, WAS & TB have a good chance of getting into playoffs, should the current wild card entrants stumble

Of all the wild card entrants, clearly CHI is only in contention due to their W-L record, but their team is beat up and not playing well along their OL at this time

Of the teams out of contention, CLE, JAC & STL are rising and playing better football (as compared to the beginning of season)

2012 - week 14 - picks (includes Thursday)

Still waiting for numbers on SD @PIT game
12/7 Updated lines for SD @PIT, notable late inj's JAC WR Shorts, TEN & BUF OL "shuffle"

12/06 8:25 PM

101 DEN -10½ *
102 OAK 49½ UNDER

DEN still looking for that dominating win, OAK is the early x-mas present

12/09 1:00 PM
105 BAL 47½ under
106 WAS -2½ *

The total is the safer bet

12/09 1:00 PM
107 KC 37½ under
108 CLE -5 *

KC last week emo game, can't expect the same 2 wks in a row

12/09 1:00 PM
109 SD 41½ under
110 PIT -8 *

SD may keep game close, but PIT D will get TOs

12/09 1:00 PM
111 TEN 48½ UNDER
112 IND -5½ *

IND on a roll and @home vs TEN w/new OC

12/09 1:00 PM
113 NYJ -2½ UNDER
114 JAC 38½ **

JAC at home again, will run O be ok?
Though NYJ is in the playoff hunt I think they are already on vacation

12/09 1:00 PM
115 CHI -3 *
116 MIN 39½ OVER

CHI beat up? worn down?
MIN will need to play keep away to win, which is doubtful w/only a run game and a QB that sucks

12/09 1:00 PM
117 ATL -3½ *
118 CAR 47½ UNDER

ATL should dominate game

12/09 1:00 PM
119 PHI 47 OVER
120 TB -7 *

PHI another desperate move w/firing of DL coach

12/09 1:00 PM
121 STL 42 ***
122 BUF -3 UNDER

STL coming off big win over div rival SF
BUF C and RT out, OL shuffle

12/09 1:00 PM
123 DAL 45½ OVER
124 CIN -3 ***


12/09 4:05 PM
125 MIA 39 *
126 SF -10 UNDER

Can't trust SF QB Kaepernick even in a home game

12/09 4:25 PM
127 NO 53 UNDER
128 NYG -5 *

hmmm, mixed thoughts....

12/09 4:25 PM
129 ARI 34½ UNDER
130 SEA -10½ ****

will the line go to -14?

12/09 8:30 PM
131 DET 51½ *
132 GB -7 OVER

DET should return the favor to GB and split the season series

12/10 8:40 PM
133 HOU 51½ over
134 NE -4 *

HOU 2ndary banged up, CBx3 inj'd

2012 - week 13 - results

I sucked ATS (4-11-1) this weekend and did really well on totals (9-7).

Game thoughts:

No morning game on FOX sucks (though afternoon game was PIT @BAL), watched NE @MIA real time (CBS), MIA makes mistakes, NE run D is not good or MIA run play calling is good. Notables: MIA LT Jake Long inj'd Q1. NE has some really nice O play calling in the first half, just fools D. MIA Q3 D picks up

TB played hard nosed football @DEN, they did much better than I thought they would going from sea level to mile high altitude. DEN owned TB during Q3, else the majority of game was fairly even

SNF - DAL again started slow in 1st half, you could take pts in 1st w/DAL and make some steady income. PHI did better, but not good enough to beat DAL

I thought CLE QB Weeden was not going to play and QB McCoy would start, turns out Weeden passes his concussion test later on in the week and I didn't change my pick

NYJ QB Sanchez benched, QB McElroy subs Q3 vs ARI

An emotionally charged KC gets the home win
ATL did win SU and covered ATS as well, should've just taken home team for Thursday night. NO has now 7 ints in 2 games, looks like it's time to play against NO as a favorite. When ATL airport workers egged NO bus, that was a clue as to emotions for this game. ATL did score in first half, but found it tough in 2n half. NO QB Brees loss the game more than ATL won it.

Late notable news:
KC LB Belcher commits murder-suicide (girl friend), he left behind a 3month old daughter, why? shoots himself in front of GM & HC, very radical, highly distraught, why?

late numbers posted for PIT @BAL -7 total 36½

3 blacked out games

Only BUF won as the home team, JAC did come in hot, but I think the weather did them in as well as losing their RB Jennings and BUF using two RBs

current line vs prior 2 season line
CAR @KC 6pt change
CIN @SD 7pt change
PHI @DAL 10pt change

Only CIN won SU and ATS
DAL won SU, but lost ATS
CAR lost SU and ATS