Tuesday, November 29, 2011

2011 week 12 - results

for a week where the effort wasn't as great as previous week due to prep for turkey day and relaxation, the result were ok, next week - more of the same...


GB@DET   W/L                a lot less scoring than anticipated


SF@BAL     L/W             BAL really appears to be a SB contender

ARI@STL   W/L              two punt returned for TDs = over total

BUF@NYJ  L/L               BUF great effort could've won

CLE@CIN  L/L               CLE plays up for battle of Ohio


CAR@IND  L/L               guess IND will be 0-fer this year...




WAS@SEA  L/L             WAS Q1/Q4 plays great, Q2-3 so-so, SEA led 17-7 in Q4 (SEA relaxed?)

NE@PHI     W/W

DEN@SD    W/L              so why did I pick the over???

PIT@KC      L/W             closer than expected... KC played UP

NYG@NO   L/W             should've known.... w/renaming of SuperDome to Mercedes-Benz

weekly results:

for the year:

teams coming off bye week(COB)
SU/ATS NO & HOU 1-0, IND 0-1 ,PIT 1-1 (won SU, lost ATS)

Sunday, November 27, 2011

2011 week 12 - Sun-Mon - picks

Late post about 1/2 hr prior to games, been lazy this weekend, must be all that gobble, gobble food.  :-)
Notes below are from mon-tues, haven't updated w/inj's, who starts etc. where does all the time go??

11/27 1:00 PM
215 ARI 40½ *
216 STL -3 UNDER
just thinking STL really beat up

11/27 1:00 PM
217 BUF 42½ UNDER
218 NYJ -9 ***
BUF hasn't played well for weeks, they s/b more UP for this game, but I suspect it won't be enough
BUF past 2 games lost 4 players to IR (LB, C, WR, LCB)

11/27 1:00 PM
219 CLE 38½ UNDER
220 CIN -7 *****
spread s/b something like -14.5, it's a battle for Ohio but CIN D looks that good and CLE O looks that bad

11/27 1:00 PM
221 HOU -6.5 *****
222 JAC 37 under
again spread s/b -13.5

11/27 1:00 PM
223 CAR -3.5 over
224 IND 46½ *
IND final? chance to win a game? we should see much more effort coming off bye and w/CAR TOs s/b 2+ edge to IND

11/27 1:00 PM
225 TB 44 under
226 TEN -3 *
I just think TB TO's will be around 2 and TEN will convert to points
TEN OL not doing well, Does Hasselbeck start?
TEN 4-5 starters out? RT? LB? DE?
TEN D can be run on

11/27 1:00 PM
227 MIN 44½ under
228 ATL -10 *****
MIN w/o RB Petersen what can they do?

11/27 4:05 PM
229 CHI 41½ over?
230 OAK -3 *
unsure of this pick, CHI QB Hanie 1st start how well will he do? CHI D & ST can only carry game so much.
If total were a bit higher I'd go under.
hmmmm new LS for CHI, something to watch

11/27 4:05 PM
231 WAS 37½ under
232 SEA -3 *
which WAS team will appear?
SEA runO and DL!!

11/27 4:15 PM
233 NE -3 *
234 PHI 50½ over
even w/PHI @home how long can QB Young sustain magic?

11/27 4:15 PM
235 DEN 42 *
236 SD -4.5 over

11/27 8:30 PM
237 PIT -10.5 *****
238 KC 41 under
KC QB Palko 2nd start enough said

11/28 8:35 PM
239 NYG 51½ *
240 NO -7 over
NYG D should give NO O trouble
angry Gmen make news on ESPN

Tuesday, November 22, 2011

2011 week 12 Thursday night picks

11/24 12:30 PM

103 GB -6 *
104 DET 55½ OVER

DET on turkey day has lost since '04. GB has won in '07 & '09 and this version of GB is even better as well as DET, so OVER is favored, w/leaning toward GB

11/24 4:15 PM
105 MIA 44½ *
106 DAL -7 UNDER

DAL vs AFC East
wk1 @NYJ 24-27
wk6 @NE 16-20
wk10 vsBUF 44-7

MIA D vs DAL O is much more predictable than
DAL D vs MIA O but I'll give edge to MIA

WAS & BUF common opponents in last 3 weeks

11/24 8:20 PM
107 SF 38½ *
108 BAL -3 UNDER

BAL D has given up at least 20pts in each of the last 4 games
ARI is the only common opponent in the past 4 weeks and was on the road for both teams.
SF won by 16 while BAL won by 3
Looking at other games as well, taking the points appears to be the right choice

Thursday night games usually favors the home team, but we've seen SD lose at home this year. I know
it's unusual to favor all the road teams, but they all are playing better D than there opponent (yes, even w/GB) so thats why I picked them on instinct and checking stats, watching games gives the edge to the road teams.

Monday, November 21, 2011

2011 week 11 - results









TB@GB        L/L      TB plays up & GB plays down

DAL@WAS  L/L      unexpected effort from WAS

ARI@SF      W/W

SEA@STL    L/W     this was tough to pick due to injs for each team, I could've changed my pick on Saturday when news of STL LT Saffold inj, but I just left this as is.

SD@CHI      W/L     costly win for CHI

PHI@NYG    L/W    upset of the week, I thought PHI was dead in the water...

KC@NE      W/W

weekly results:

for the year:

overall a very good week, NFC East gave me trouble, looks like 'dogs play hard at this time of year.
I knew of the TB/GB history where TB has been winning and giving good effort for the past few years.
Check under nfl.com>stats>historical stats>team vs team.

CIN played better on the road than I thought they would. TEN @ATL has a deceptive score, TEN was a bit lucky (w/Hasselbeck inj and Locker subbing played well) and ATL played much better. CAR had a much better game on O than last week.

Teams that maybe dead .... KC, STL, BUF, ARI - JAC? CLE?

Friday, November 18, 2011

2011 week 11 - Sun-Mon - picks

11/20 4:15 PM

415 TEN 44 UNDER
416 ATL -6 *?
both teams are 5-4 and lose to winning teams (w/1 exception each), but beat losing teams, recent common opponent IND. Since both team are run oriented, I'll side w/Under the total.

11/20 1:00 PM
417 BUF 43 under?
418 MIA -2 **
BUF is trending in the opposite direction of MIA
BUF can't stop run

11/20 1:00 PM
419 CIN 40½ over?
420 BAL -7 **
2nd Division game for CIN in as many weeks and perhaps an even tougher defense. BAL will study what PIT did and take it to another level

11/20 1:00 PM
421 JAC -1 UNDER
422 CLE 35½ **
A cooler day, w/rain/wind and time for those sunshine state teams to lose in the cold

11/20 1:00 PM
423 OAK -1.5 *****
424 MIN 44 over?
should I take total more seriously?

11/20 1:00 PM
425 CAR 47½ over?
426 DET -7 *****
CAR QB Newton has 'hit the wall', thinkin' over w/DET exploding points @home

11/20 1:00 PM
427 TB 49½ under?
428 GB -14.5 ****
Another sunshine state team playing in the cold w/a chance of snow (temp in upper 30's).

11/20 1:00 PM
429 DAL -8 ***
430 WAS 41½ under?
Though WAS will be 'up' for this game, just not enough, just can't see them scoring enough points to stay within number

11/20 4:05 PM
431 ARI 41½ under
432 SF -9.5 ***
just exactly what will ARI do?

11/20 4:05 PM
433 SEA 39 UNDER
434 STL -2 *
STL on 1st of 4 games vs Division opponents
SEA RG & RT IR OFY, STL appears to be gelling on O
STL HC says '15 players out or limited this week'
so many inj's for both teams

11/20 4:15 PM
435 SD 45 under
436 CHI -4 ***
SD is beat up and trending in the opposite direction of CHI

11/20 8:25 PM
437 PHI 47 under
438 NYG -4 *
Is PHI a lost cause?

11/21 8:35 PM
439 KC 48 under
440 NE -15 *****
really tempted to take KC, due to DC Crennel who probably knows best how to slow/stop Brady, it's just that KC QB Palko 1st start is an unknown and w/o enough reps/seeing live action I'm on the doubters fence

Monday, November 14, 2011

2011 week 11 Thursday night - pick

11/17 8:20 PM

307 NYJ -4.5 UNDER
308 DEN 41 **

short prep for both teams, DEN since Tebow has become starter is 3-1 (3-0 road, 0-1 home). Common opponents this year MIA & SD (back2back weeks) & OAK. It's tempting to take 'under' the total, both teams should emphasize running ball w/D's stopping run. If NYJ scores at least 24, DEN needs to score @least 17 for a push, 18+ for the over - this seems doubtful to me - and so it's 'under'.

on another train of thought ... NYJ has a big DL w/only one sub 300lb personnel (295lb). This should give DEN OL problems w/run O. (just not as easy pushing around KC DL). NYJ LB's are also pretty good at stopping run. IF NYJ can make DEN one dimensional by stopping running game, then NYJ should win easily. If DEN D could do same to NYJ O, then we should have an under game. I just don't expect to see that as NYJ is a better passing team and can run. ST edge also goes to NYJ.

DEN only real edge is rest (no travel) and altitude, but this could be enough. There are reports on 'net of NYJ personnel dislike for going to DEN on short week of 4 days (really 2 days practice, 1 day travel, then game day). If altitude really affects NYJ, it should be seen in Q2 & Q4, NYJ may tire at this point and DEN personnel could take advantage. Temp will start in the 50's dropping into 40's by end of game, slight wind, should be a crisp night w/high altitude dry air. NYJ is near sea-level so going up to 5200+ ft should mess w/NYJ D - they could tire, if DEN runO keeps the pedal to the metal. If McGahee plays for at least a half DEN should have a much better chance of winning.

DEN DE's could disrupt NYJ QB Sanchez, I just don't think Dawkins is quick enough and can be beaten over the top, but NYJ doesn't really have an effective speedster. This should be a ground/pound game for both teams. I just think it's easier to make DEN O one dimensional than it is to make NYJ O, thus edge to NYJ.

updated thoughts - watching last year's game in Oct mid-day sunny, warm, NYJ was a little lucky to win game. The diiference this year will be DEN runO vs NYJ D. Again we'll see NYJ O vs DEN D, this year I think DEN D will win due to personnel changes for NYJ skill players (w/o WR Cotchery, Edwards & QB/WR/PR/KR Smith) which are a downgrade except for Buress in redzone. DEN CB Bailey was inj at beginning of Q2, DEN D also has upgraded DL. This year I'm thinkin' NYJ QB Sanchez will make more errors and unless they stick to run game, DEN D will cause more TO's and ST will come thru (no missed/muffed FG attempts)
NYJ D will probably need to run blitz DEN runO to effectively contain DEN. Under the total is still the preference and I'm changing my pick to the 'dog +4.5 DEN

more updates:
here's an espn clip http://espn.go.com/video/clip?id=7237494 that takes the stand of 'Is the point spread to low?'
These pundits are all saying yes too low, but they're only discussing one match up of DEN O vs NYJ D. They should be looking at NYJ O vs DEN D as well as ST. NYJ was fortunate to win last year w/more TO's. Normally the team w/more TO's will lose the game. I'm guessing the same will occur again w/NYJ having more TO's and this time DEN gets the W

2011 week 10 - results


OAK@SD   L/W              OAK came together a game sooner than I thought



JAC@IND   L/W               IND is THE WORST O

BUF@DAL  L/W              BUF smoke&mirrors a no-go @DAL

HOU@TB    W/L                TB is cooked

TEN@CAR  L/L               what happened w/CAR?


NO@ATL    L/W           ATL HC ODD OT play calling smells of mano-y-mano, gave game to NO, playaction would have been so much better, When the D expects xyz and can defend xyz, show xyz, but
give them abc instead

DET@CHI   L/W           I think the wind affected DET, lol



BAL@SEA  L/W           BAL odd game plan again after a big win, hmmm smells of a setup, but for who???


NE@NYJ    L/L            NYJ can't get over the hump

MIN@GB  W/L            just over the total..

weekly results 8-8/12-4

for the year:

ATS/TOTAL 76-67-3/73-71-2

ATL another instance of HC over thinking? to aggressive? what were you thinking? maybe he didn't want a tie? I along w/many others are confused as he didn't stick to his MO.

I should revise my mid-season standings w/NE #1 in AFC East, since NYJ "can't get over the hump" and maybe w/BAL loss, HOU should be given consideration as SB bound?

GiB 3-1 ATS/SU (PIT,HOU,NO win - IND lose)
CoB 1-3 ATS/SU (JAC win - CAR,DET,MIN lose)

the Harbaugh bros streak comes to an end as BAL lost & SF won

it's odd w/BAL as after each big win, they've lost their next game to 'inferior opponents' and I noticed they're not running the ball as much in their losses. smells of game planning gone awry or just being too smart for yourself
a very good weekend as I had 6 W/W's (wins ATS & total), 2 L/L's (CAR & NYJ disappoint) and the rest were split. I'm now back on the plus side for total(O/U) picks :-)

Friday, November 11, 2011

2011 mid-season - picture this....

I believe the main contenders for the Super Bowl at this point are GB and BAL. OK, mostly everyone will agree w/GB, but BAL?

Let's focus on the AFC, current playoff contenders are -
East - NYJ, NE, BUF
North - BAL, PIT
South - HOU
West - OAK

In the West I don't include DEN as I think in 3-4 weeks D's will pick up on DEN run option O and squelch it. SD is clearly on the downhill, especially w/personnel, this past Thursday night was just a continuation of OAK dominance from last year when they were swept by the raiders. KC is about to step into it's 2nd half of season which includes a stretch of NE, PIT, CHI, NYJ, GB which are sandwiched by division games of DEN/sandwich/OAK, DEN - tell be very lucky to end up 8-8 at best, so playoffs not likely this year.

Of the remaining teams, NE & PIT are on the downhill slope, stopping every now and then w/wins that you expects and losses, that have the questions rolling that large snowball even faster downhill.

BUF, HOU, & NYJ are climbing and need to continue to climb, w/HOU farther up the hill and NYJ farther ahead w/D and farther behind w/O

That leaves BAL and with their division sweep this year of PIT, they appear to have gotten 'over the hump'.
All teams have a rival that is better than they are and until they beat them, they will continue to be the lesser of the rivals. Why not NYJ? they've proven they can beat NE. This is true, but they aren't as complete a team as BAL and this can be seen w/special teams and w/the lack of 'explosive downfield plays'.

In the NFC, after GB the contenders are...
East - NYG, DAL
North - DET, CHI
South - NO, ATL
West - SF

NYG needs their DL/LB to stay healthy or they'll give up too many points even for a Manning to overcome
DAL is perhaps the most inconsistent and playing to the level of competition

DET/CHI give GB the rivalry it needs to stay ahead of the game, but this also exposes DET/CHI weakness' in the game this weekend CHI needs the win to gain the split for the series or else DET will have garnered the sweep and braggin' rights, but GB is the king of the hill and they must be knocked off before DET/CHI can even think of being SuperBowl bound

NO though great at home, have a tuff time on the road with teams that have a winning record
ATL appears to be a notch below NO and until they sweep NO will always be considered so.

SF is on the uphill and there are more hills to climb

2011 week 10 - Sun-Mon - picks

11/13 1:00 PM
217 PIT -3 *
218 CIN 41½ UNDER
PIT GiB, maybe on descent, but here's a way stop w/CIN

11/13 1:00 PM
219 DEN 41½ **
220 KC -3 UNDER
DEN read-option offense should give KC a little trouble

11/13 1:00 PM
221 JAC -3 under
222 IND 37½ ****
best chance for IND to win until after bye week

11/13 1:00 PM
223 BUF 48 *
224 DAL -5.5 over
BUF 1st of 3 games on the road
DAL lost @NYJ 24-27 & @NE 16-20
taking pts, BUF may lose by 3 or 4 pts, but that would cover spread

11/13 1:00 PM
225 HOU -3 *
226 TB 45½ UNDER
TB D can't stop runO, HC says "out-physicaled" last week by NO

11/13 1:00 PM
227 TEN 46 over
228 CAR -3 *
CAR CoB, really needs to win last home game for the next month

11/13 1:00 PM
229 WAS 37½ under
230 MIA -3.5 ***

11/13 1:00 PM
231 NO 50 under
232 ATL -1 ****
ATL 1st of 3 games @home

11/13 4:15 PM
233 DET 45½ *
234 CHI -3 over

11/13 1:00 PM
235 STL 37½ *****
236 CLE -2.5 UNDER
STL is really a money line play, CLE 2ndary/safeties are hurting. Couple it w/an ineffective O and this really looks like STL's 2nd win of the season

11/13 1:00 PM
237 ARI 46½ *?
238 PHI -14 under
ARI 1st of 3 games on the road, +14pts can't resist

11/13 4:05 PM
239 BAL -7 **
240 SEA 41 under

11/13 4:15 PM
241 NYG 42½ over
242 SF -3.5 **

11/13 8:30 PM
243 NE 47½ UNDER
244 NYJ -1.5 ****

11/14 8:35 PM
245 MIN 51 under?
246 GB -13.5 **
MIN CoB, +13.5 tempting, except rookie QB vs Dom Capers D on MNF

Interesting stat -

AFC South vs NFC South ~ 0-fer SU/ATS

HOU 0-1 (33-40 @NO)
TEN begins 5 game stretch vs NFC South
JAC 0-2 (10-16 @CAR, 10-23 vsNO)
IND 0-3 (17-24 @TB, 7-62 @NO, 7-31 vs ATL)

Wednesday, November 09, 2011


11/10 8:20 PM

107 OAK 48 under
108 SD -7 *

It's hard to take OAK. this will be the third game since QB Campbell inj, O has improved, but D really has gotten worse.
Can't see OAK getting win, so SD wins at home and hopefully covers. Under the total is probably the better bet.  I'll hazard a guess w/OAK having more TO's which will lead to SD scores and thus the cover.

Tuesday, November 08, 2011

2011 week 09 - results


ATL@IND  W/L almost as expected is IND quitting?
TB@NO      L/W oh well, NO @home, ho-hum
CLE@HOU W/L close ~ just over the total
NYJ@BUF  W/L not as much scoring as thought
MIA@KC    W/L again, not as much scoring as thought
SEA@DAL   L/W close, SEA scores more
DEN@OAK L/L surprise/upset of the week
CIN@TEN   L/L 2H CIN rises, TEN fails w/17-7 lead @H
STL@ARI    L/W STL misses FG @end of game, ARI OT prTD
NYG@NE   W/L just like SB in '08
GB@SD      W/W
BAL@PIT    L/W BAL got the sweep
CHI@PHI    L/W PHI just not ready for prime time?

weekly results 7-7/7-7

for the year:
ATS/TOTAL 68-59-3/61-67-2

Harbaugh Bros winning ways continue w/BAL & SF winning.
BAL appears to be over the hump and should be considered a serious contender for the SuperBowl this year.

DEN beating OAK @home - I was really surprised, DEN runO scheme w/just enough passing and OAK TO's were the things that stood out

TEN & STL had their chances to win their games, but lost.

Teams CoB (Coming off bye week) 4-2 SU/ATS
Surprisingly team CoB trend continued. Teams w/winning CoB records won and teams w/losing CoB records lost. Only NYJ tilted toward winning record.

This week was the opposite from last week for me w/morning games doing well on the side and afternoon games coming out w/a losing record and vice versa for totals.

one last comment, I was really 'under the weather' from about Tues of last week and stil recovering from the flu? but I did ok, even w/fuzzy thinking and not checking such things as CHI vs PHI record last 5 years (which now stands in favor of CHI 4-1 SU).

Thursday, November 03, 2011

2011 week 09 Sun-Mon - picks

11/06 1:00 PM
405 ATL -7 *
406 IND 45 over
ATL CoB 12-10, ATL vs IND 1-13 all time record

11/06 1:00 PM
407 TB 51 *
408 NO -8 under
TB CoB 10-12

11/06 1:00 PM
409 CLE 41 under
410 HOU -11 ****

11/06 1:00 PM
411 NYJ 44 *
412 BUF -1.5 over
NYJ CoB 11-11

11/06 1:00 PM
413 MIA 39½ *
414 KC -5.5 over

11/06 1:00 PM
415 SF -3.5 *****
416 WAS 37½ UNDER

11/06 1:00 PM
417 SEA 43 under
418 DAL -11.5 ***

11/06 4:05 PM
419 DEN 43 under
420 OAK -8 **
OAK CoB 9-13

11/06 4:05 PM
421 CIN 40½ under
422 TEN -3 *

11/06 4:15 PM
423 STL 44½ ***
424 ARI -3.5 *UNDER*

11/06 4:15 PM
425 NYG 52½ *
426 NE -8.5 over?

11/06 4:15 PM
427 GB -6 ***
428 SD 52 over
GB CoB 13-9

11/06 8:25 PM
429 BAL 41½ over
430 PIT -3 *

11/07 8:35 PM
431 CHI 47½ over
432 PHI -8 *
CHI CoB 14-8