Tuesday, November 22, 2011

2011 week 12 Thursday night picks

11/24 12:30 PM

103 GB -6 *
104 DET 55½ OVER

DET on turkey day has lost since '04. GB has won in '07 & '09 and this version of GB is even better as well as DET, so OVER is favored, w/leaning toward GB

11/24 4:15 PM
105 MIA 44½ *
106 DAL -7 UNDER

DAL vs AFC East
wk1 @NYJ 24-27
wk6 @NE 16-20
wk10 vsBUF 44-7

MIA D vs DAL O is much more predictable than
DAL D vs MIA O but I'll give edge to MIA

WAS & BUF common opponents in last 3 weeks

11/24 8:20 PM
107 SF 38½ *
108 BAL -3 UNDER

BAL D has given up at least 20pts in each of the last 4 games
ARI is the only common opponent in the past 4 weeks and was on the road for both teams.
SF won by 16 while BAL won by 3
Looking at other games as well, taking the points appears to be the right choice

Thursday night games usually favors the home team, but we've seen SD lose at home this year. I know
it's unusual to favor all the road teams, but they all are playing better D than there opponent (yes, even w/GB) so thats why I picked them on instinct and checking stats, watching games gives the edge to the road teams.

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