Monday, January 23, 2012

2011 week 21 - Super Bowl pick

02/05 6:30 PM

101 NYG 55½ under
102 NE -3 *

I was at first thinking over the total, due to past experience w/tv timeouts and advertisements leading to enough time for teams to recognize defensive schemes and offenses take advantage, but I'm thinking NYG will want to win by controlling time of possession, thus minimizing Brady & Co opportunities to score.

I'm thinking NE D is underrated and NYG O is overrated. NE D has been playing well this past month, during DEN game is when you start noticing the changes in scheme and the return of personnel. NYG O just takes the opportunities presented by D and makes the most of it, but as far as being consistently driving down the field, I'd say no.

I think NYG really needs to run RB Jacobs more often in order to control NE D and have a better chance to win than instead of relying on D to create turnovers.

NE passing O has been a bit out of synch, but running O is doing well. NYG D really relys on front 4, 2ndary has issues that NE O should be able to exploit. I would have thought over the total if Brady & co. weren't so banged up. TE Gronk's ankle took a beating last game, Brady's ball is sailing as noted by other analysts, he appears to be playing hurt as he missed throws he's known to make.

The spread of -3 is like your standard home game spread except this should be an away game for both team as fans for both teams should be well represented, neutral site?? maybe, but to even out betting -4 or better yet -6.5 would be much closer to what I would expect. Brady & Co even w/inj's are still much more efficient offensively than Manning & Co.

The emotional edge should go to NE as well, as this rematch of SB participants gives NE much more incentive since they lost their prior SB matchup.

It's interesting that the championship games hinged really on special teams playmaking/errors as NE & NYG made plays on ST and BAL/SF made errors that ended up being costly. It's also interesting that Peter King finds the corelations between this years SB teams and the SB teams of '07, if you believe history repeats itself than NYG is the way to go.

Sunday, January 22, 2012

2011 week 20 - results


BAL@NE L/W               BAL kept game close and almost pulled it out

NYG@SF L/L                ST miscues cost SF game

weekly results:

sucky results, so a rematch of previous SB, I wonder if it will be the same results? I'm thinking high scoring even though NYG D is playing well and this time NE's revenge....

why? NYG seemed a bit lucky w/ST TO's in Q4 & OT to get the win. NYG D real edge is Pierre-Paul, 2ndary looks like they could have been burned for more and I'm still thinkin' NYG O is better when RB Jacobs has more carries instead of Bradshaw.

As for NE, Brady was off and they still won, a testament to their team as a whole and run D is so much better than a month ago, vs DEN Q1 they really looked vulnerable, but have since filled gaps and tackled better

Monday, January 16, 2012

2011 - week 20 playoff picks

01/22 3:00 PM

301 BAL 49½ under
302 NE -7.5 *

BAL on the road this season has yet to have a total go over 49.5 & w/NE playing well on O, fav/under
combo seems the way to go.
Update - I just read a few things on and I don't agree, I think NE D has stepped up and w/new starting D lineup and BAL having similar characteristics to DEN, the game should be very similar to last weeks DEN @NE matchup, I just expect an under game instead of over the total.

01/22 6:30 PM
303 NYG 43½ over
304 SF -2.5 *

Of all the remaining teams SF D is the best and since I had the NFC all wrong, I'll play follow the leader
w/D's winning out.
Update - I don't think bettors (early money) are over reacting to SF, I think they see the same thing I do - a D that is playing on another level and couple that w/recent inj's for NYG, SF should win. This game may go under the total, but NYG Manning & co. should get at least a couple of TDs & FG's (or about 20 pts).

2011 - week 19 -results


NO@SF       L/W    the best D won vs the best O


HOU@BAL L/L      dog/under combo wins

NYG@GB   L/W     seems to me GB was not as aggressive as they could be, end of Q1 GB had possession, they played the game as if they had already won it and too many drops by WRs/TEs. GB odd lineup for starting D w/o LOLB Walden and DE Green not active. NYG had inj's during game, could be a costly win.

weekly results:

Tuesday, January 10, 2012

2011 week 19 - playoff picks

01/14 4:30 PM

109 NO -3.5 ****
110 SF 47½ over

NO is hitting on all cylinders, spread s/b -10.5
SF even w/rest can play/win w/only one method run O & D controlling opposition, but NO is just to strong

01/14 8:00 PM
111 DEN 50½ OVER
112 NE -13.5 *

with recent hiring of McDaniel by NE, his knowledge of DEN personnel and familiarity w/NE O scheme, s/b a great way to get the win and overcome NE recent playoff losses

01/15 1:00 PM
113 HOU 35½ OVER
114 BAL -7.5 *

1/2 pt hook makes me think more and BAL has already beaten HOU, but BAL is rested and will likely come out throwing

01/15 4:30 PM
115 NYG 52½ OVER
116 GB -7.5 *

toughest game to pick, NYG runO is effective, but GB scores a lot of points at home. I think GB will grab
lead, increase it and NYG will be forced to abandon running game.

Sunday, January 08, 2012

2011 week 18 - results




ATL@NYG   L/L       favorite/under combo won, ATL HC very stubborn w/play calling

PIT@DEN     W/L      noteworthy: shortest OT in NFL playoff history (11 sec)

weekly results:



Tuesday, January 03, 2012

2011 week 18 - picks

01/07 4:30 PM

101 CIN 38½ OVER
102 HOU -3 *
originally picked CIN, but thought better of it as HOU is the much older team, much hungrier having never been to playoffs

01/07 8:00 PM
103 DET 59½ OVER
104 NO -10.5 *
10.5 is a lot to cover, but I don't have faith in DET on the road in a dome, they're mistake prone

01/08 1:00 PM
105 ATL 47½ *
106 NYG -3 OVER
you could make a case for NYG as ATL 2ndary has issues and Manning & Co. may just burn them, but NYG D is crying about ATL dirty play
01/08 4:30 PM
107 PIT -8.5 UNDER
108 DEN 34½ *
Under is by far the safest bet for this game, just wondering w/PIT inj's how well Big Ben & Co. will play

Monday, January 02, 2012

2011 - Playoff projections - updated picks

updated projections:

AFC Playoff contenders - NE, BAL, HOU, DEN, PIT, CIN

AFC Wild card (* likely winner), CIN @HOU*, PIT* @DEN

(changed my mind CIN run D is suspect)

AFC Division projected (* likely winner), PIT @NE*, HOU @BAL*

(home teams can't lose, though NE has been bounced 1st game of PO for the last 2 years, PIT appears to be limping)

AFC Conference projected (* likely winner), BAL @NE*

(and though mid-season I picked BAL to go to SB, I've changed my mind)

NFC Playoff contenders - GB, SF, NO, NYG, ATL, DET

NFC Wild card (* likely winner), DET @NO*, ATL* @NYG

(ATL is probably weakest pick)

NFC Division projected (* likely winner), ATL @GB*, NO* @SF

(NO is hot, GB was hottest)

NFC Conference projected (* likely winner), NO* @GB

(re-match of 1st game of season, and I'm changing my mind again)

SB projected (* likely winner), NO* vs NE @Indianapolis

(NO 2ndary appears to be much better than NE)

2011 week 17 - results

GAME           ATS/TOTAL


TB@ATL      W/W

SF@STL        L/L    STL score 2TD late Q4 wins ATS, loss SU, dog/over wins ca$h


DET@GB      L/W   GB wins despite resting several starters on O & D

DAL@NYG  L/L     favorite/under wins $


TEN@HOU  L/L    TEN won SU, lost ATS, dog/over wins ca$h



IND@JAC   L/W    should have taken into consideration last game for owner & rushing title for RB Jones-Drew, plus sweep of IND


BUF@NE    L/L     so instead of dog/under, favorite/over won

SD@OAK   L/L      dog/over wins $



weekly results:

for the year:

so this regular season, I've ended up on the positive side for sides and totals. Note as the season wore on it became harder and harder to pick 'W/W' and in fact my 'L/L' losses were growing.