Monday, January 23, 2012

2011 week 21 - Super Bowl pick

02/05 6:30 PM

101 NYG 55½ under
102 NE -3 *

I was at first thinking over the total, due to past experience w/tv timeouts and advertisements leading to enough time for teams to recognize defensive schemes and offenses take advantage, but I'm thinking NYG will want to win by controlling time of possession, thus minimizing Brady & Co opportunities to score.

I'm thinking NE D is underrated and NYG O is overrated. NE D has been playing well this past month, during DEN game is when you start noticing the changes in scheme and the return of personnel. NYG O just takes the opportunities presented by D and makes the most of it, but as far as being consistently driving down the field, I'd say no.

I think NYG really needs to run RB Jacobs more often in order to control NE D and have a better chance to win than instead of relying on D to create turnovers.

NE passing O has been a bit out of synch, but running O is doing well. NYG D really relys on front 4, 2ndary has issues that NE O should be able to exploit. I would have thought over the total if Brady & co. weren't so banged up. TE Gronk's ankle took a beating last game, Brady's ball is sailing as noted by other analysts, he appears to be playing hurt as he missed throws he's known to make.

The spread of -3 is like your standard home game spread except this should be an away game for both team as fans for both teams should be well represented, neutral site?? maybe, but to even out betting -4 or better yet -6.5 would be much closer to what I would expect. Brady & Co even w/inj's are still much more efficient offensively than Manning & Co.

The emotional edge should go to NE as well, as this rematch of SB participants gives NE much more incentive since they lost their prior SB matchup.

It's interesting that the championship games hinged really on special teams playmaking/errors as NE & NYG made plays on ST and BAL/SF made errors that ended up being costly. It's also interesting that Peter King finds the corelations between this years SB teams and the SB teams of '07, if you believe history repeats itself than NYG is the way to go.

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