Thursday, September 26, 2013

2013 - week 04 - picks

09/29 1:00 PM
199 PIT -1 **
200 MIN 42½ over

0-3 vs 0-3 even more desperate
@Wembley Stadium, London, England

no home field advantage for MIN
MIN FB Felton returns

09/29 1:00 PM
201 BAL -3½ ****
202 BUF 43½ *UNDER*

BUF COSTLY DEFEAT, 20s team, @least 4players inj'd from LW
BUF DE Carrington IR OFY
BUF appears to be regressing on O and D
BAL emphasis on run O?

09/29 1:00 PM
203 CIN -5½ **
204 CLE 41½ under

CLE returns to earth?

09/29 1:00 PM
205 IND -9 **
206 JAC 42½ under

JAC QB Gabbert starts
IND EXCELLENT 1st half bet as favorite
as JAC tends to score in Q4 (garbage time )

09/29 1:00 PM
207 SEA -3 **
208 HOU 43 under

HOU O regressing, D progressing

09/29 1:00 PM
209 ARI 41 ***UNDER***
210 TB -3 *

ARI practicing in FL (did not return home)
ARI LBx2 Acho and Alexander IR OFY
(also core ST players)
ARI D can't cover TE's
TB D zone schemes, big day for ARI WR's?
really tempted to take ARI
TB QB Glennon startS

09/29 1:00 PM
211 CHI 48½ *over
212 DET -2½ *

DET WR Burleson OUT

09/29 1:00 PM
213 NYG 44 UNDER
214 KC -4 *

KC O/ST 0 TO's this season, amazing D
KC 10 days rest

09/29 4:05 PM
215 NYJ 39 ***UNDER***
216 TEN -4½ **

NYJ D sacking team (x8 vs BUF)
TEN should win SU, will they cover?
LY NYJ 10 @TEN 14

09/29 4:25 PM
217 DAL -2 *
218 SD 46½ **OVER**

DAL needs to prove they can win on the road this season
SD OL best up?
changed initial pick from SD/O to DAL/O

09/29 4:25 PM
219 WAS -3 *
220 OAK 47½ *over*

OAK QB Flynn starts?
?pts prudent? I originally took OAK/O changed to WAS/O

09/29 4:25 PM
221 PHI 57½ over
222 DEN -10 **

PHI 0-3 desperate, players on the fence? w/Kelly? or w/o Kelly?
PHI 10 days rest

09/29 8:30 PM
223 NE -1 **UNDER**
224 ATL 49 *

NE 3-0 @ATL 1-2, ATL much more desperate and plays better at home,
ATL has played the tougher schedule and though depleted, keeps calm and wins the game
ATL excellent? 1st half bet

09/30 8:40 PM
225 MIA 47 over?
226 NO -6 **


TEAMS w/10 days rest 4-0 ATS/SU (BAL, DEN, NYJ, NE) this week KC, PHI

Teams Going into Bye (GiB) PIT, MIN, TB, WAS
Teams Going into Bye 1-1 ATS/SU (CAR, GB)

Tuesday, September 24, 2013

2013 - week 04 - Thursday picks

09/26 8:25 PM
101 SF -3 ***UNDER***
102 STL 42½ *

SF LBx2 Willis and Smith OUT
SF O in a ?funk? last 2 weeks
STL ST issues/penalites last 2 weeks

PERSONNEL CHANGES from last years game @STL
SF w/o starters(7) 
D (4 = NT,LBx2,FS)
O (3 = WRx2,TE)
[might be 4 if SF G Iupati out]

STL w/o starters(9)
O (4 = OLx3,RB)

Neither team at 1-2 W-L records are in a groove, they may be in a rut, SF O is ineffective w/o WR's and TE plus loss of personnel for this game points toward the home dog. It's also a short week and STL O seems to be about the same as last year.

Monday, September 23, 2013

2013 - week 03 - results

KC @PHI, TNF, turnovers by PHI, 1 on ST, 3 on O (center-QB exchange, 2 ints), at the half KC leads 16-6, a FG (KC K Succop did miss a FG) under 25 or half of the total. With less than 2 min to go PHI RB McCoy injured, high ankle sprain? he returns to the game Q3. KC NT DeVito neck injury also a great concern.
Curious call by PHI, going for a 2 pt PAT in Q1, why? why? why? there is no good answer, unless PHI HC Kelly thinks the game will be lower scoring and they need to score as much as possible, but who really knows?
2nd Half, notable less scoring, game seems to be dragging for PHI and in control for KC, an impressive win on a short week. KC did more in all three phases of the game than PHI could. PHI D played much better than previous games, thus under the total won.

TB @NE, will preseason practice sessions give TB enough of an edge to stay close to NE? nope! gave an edge for NE

Of all the upsets in my mind, the biggest is CLE winning on the road @MIN, so unexpected, w/a new QB and RB and the recent trade of their best RB to IND, this game really sticks out for me as not normal.
9/24 update: The officiating crew led by Leary has erred again to the detriment of MIN (a time out should have been taken away and no 15 yd penalty)

penalized MIN 15 yd, MIN w/ball 1st and 25 @CLE 41 

should have been MIN w/ball 1st and 10 @CLE 26 w/2 time outs instead of 3

note: same crew err'd in wk 1 GB @SF, to the dismay of GB

NYG losing on the road is very disappointing to their fans and an uplifting win for CAR

CIN winning at home is huge vs GB and maybe the ball is bouncing their way for the season

BAL winning @home vs HOU is another win that's unexpected for me, this was also a induction game for former Raven Lewis. Early on an interception returned for a TD and a punt returned for a TD were the big sparks that doomed HOU in addition to their 3FG's (instead of TDs).

Funny, how xNYG LB Blackburn really helps his new team CAR w/their win and yet xBAL S Reed doesn't do the same for his new team HOU @BAL.

Teams going into bye week were 1-1 (GB lost, CAR won)

Results below, not a single game on the $$ (won both sides and totals) split the majority of games, I didn't get to half correct for totals ... sigh...
2013 - week 03 - results

Wednesday, September 18, 2013

2013 - week 03 - picks

09/22 1:00 PM
391 SD 44 **
392 TEN -3½ OVER?

SD WR Floyd OUT - concussion
they've both played HOU this year (G1 & G2)
but I suspect, HOU would rather play TEN again

09/22 1:00 PM
393 CLE 41 UNDER
394 MIN -5½ ***

0-2 vs 0-2 desperate
CLE QB Weeden OUT, QB Hoyer starts
9/18 update: CLE RB Richardson trade to IND, CLE RB Rainey starts?
so CLE with new starting QB and RB, week 3 of season, I'm thinking CLE mgmt gave up in preseason

09/22 1:00 PM
395 TB 44½ *
396 NE -7 ***UNDER***

TB O's woes
TB D penalty prone
TB FS Goldson susp'd
NE O's woes
Should I give up pts? TB SU not good on the road
internal issues w/TB?

09/22 1:00 PM
397 HOU -2½ *
398 BAL 45 *under?

HOU O issues?
HOU S Ed Reed starts?
HOU LT Brown OUT? 'turf toe'
BAL can't go deep w/o WR Jones, TE issues
LY HOU won @home 43-13, HOU O 'big chunks'

09/22 1:00 PM
399 STL 47 *
400 DAL -4 *over

?it's a game DAL should win, but will they?

09/22 1:00 PM
401 ARI 48½ *over*
402 NO -7½ *

ARI can they move the ball consistently?
ARI WR Fitzgerald out???
ARI 2ndary playing well, adjust in 2nd half
9/20 update: changing pick from ARI/U to NO/O

09/22 1:00 PM
403 DET 49 **
404 WAS -2 OVER?

DET 0-18 @WAS (last 18 games)
DET penalties keep it close?
DET RB Bush OUT???
DET needs RB Bell to catch ball
WAS D tackling & ST woes

09/22 1:00 PM
405 GB -2 *
406 CIN 48 *over?

CIN 2ndary short a player

09/22 1:00 PM
407 NYG 45½ *
408 CAR -1½ under (1st Half)? over (whole game)?

0-2 vs 0-2 desperate
NYG ST issues allowed 3TD in 2G
NYG players "must win"
CAR FS Godfrey IR (best 2ndary player?)
CAR 2ndary beat UP
CAR O issues
CAR DL 'lighter'

09/22 4:05 PM
409 ATL 44 *under?
410 MIA -1½ *

ATL DE Beirmann, FB Ewing, WLB Weatherspoon IR
ATL RB Jackson OUT
ATL a bit beat up? ATL depth?
ATL costly? win last wk vs STL
ATL 4 new starters FB, RB, DE, LB

09/22 4:25 PM
411 IND 46 under
412 SF -10½ **

SF DTx2 inj'd
9/18 update: 'traded' IND RB Richardson starts?

09/22 4:25 PM
413 JAC 41 **UNDER**
414 SEA -20 *

Will JAC score?
SEA O slow starts past 2 games, get well game?

09/22 4:25 PM
415 BUF 39 *
416 NYJ -2½ over?

NYJ O shaky at best, should run more
BUF DC Pettine xNYJ DC 09-12, edge?

09/22 8:30 PM
417 CHI -2½ ***
418 PIT 40 UNDER

09/23 8:40 PM
419 OAK 49½ UNDER
420 DEN 14½ *****


Tuesday, September 17, 2013

2013 - week 03 - Thursday picks

09/19 8:25 PM
301 KC 50½ ***
302 PHI -3 OVER

KC ST struggles except for punter
PHI vs another veteran QB

KC HC Reid knows the majority of PHI personnel, but much more important PHI D can't stop teams w/a QB that knows how to milk the clock and play keep away. Big edge KC

2013 - week 02 - results

Games I watched in real time or near real time:
NYJ @NE, TNF, fairly close game at the half, rain storm sweeps in and lasts for the rest of the game. NYJ makes it interesting by closing to a 10-13 score in Q3. NYJ OL is winning the battle, they need to run more IMO. NE QB-WR are out of sync. I'm unsure if NE is the better D, it seems to be NYJ D is playing at least on par if not better than NE D. NYJ luck ran out this game. W/38sec left mutual animosity appears between Jet's & Pat's w/NYJ LT, LG, and C ejected from game.

WAS @GB, all GB, WAS appears to be still in preseason mode. Their G1 and G2 opponents (PHI, GB) won the game in the first half and 'coast' the second half. At this rate I'd be against WAS in the first half and bet the over in the 2nd half and maybe bet on WAS in the 2nd half. Perhaps this will last another couple of weeks.

I did get to watch part of DAL @KC (due to network cut over to a more 'interesting' game), DAL IMO play calling is a bit suspect, Bradshaw of Fox Sports points out that they need to be more aggressive and take chances down the field (he specifically calls out their OC Callahan). I also noticed the conservative play calling and it almost seems as if DAL believes it had already won the game when they were up 10-7 at the half. They seemed to 'coast' in the 2nd half. A combination of better coaching, play calling, personnel won it for KC in 2nd half. This is not DAL season to go all the way to SB, if they make it into playoffs, they'll be knocked out in their first game.

SD @PHI, despite the two early TO's by RB Mathews and TE Gates, you could tell that SD was the better team. In the end SD pulled it out. PHI should be classified as a W/O (Win/Over) team. I don't believe you'll see PHI win any low scoring games w/their D having issues. SD seems to have turned a page w/HC McCoy and you could see them win a few F/U (favorite/under games) prior to their bye week and perhaps even w/WAS game after bye week as well, but after that it gets tough with some of the best D's on their schedule. Getting DEN twice w/Von Miller off his suspension, KC twice, CIN, MIA, NYG only OAK and maybe WAS could be considered a 'W' for them.

DEN @NYG, Manning Bowl III won by Peyton again (3-0), NYG still seems to be in slow mode, I guess they'll speed up once OCT comes along. DEN D is doing well w/o DE Von Miller and CB Bailey. I guess the road to the SB will go thru them this year.

SF @SEA, SNF, SEA did what good teams do and that's win @home, SF kept the game close for about 3 quarters. SF QB Kaepernick had perhaps the worst game of his young career, SEA QB Wilson was better, but not by much. A defensive battle as expected. SEA D was missing some of it's starter's and still won, very impressive controlling SF OL and skill players for the majority of the game. Has a new king to the throne arrived?

An 8-8 week ATS and Totals, five games I was on the 'money', 5 games totally off in my picks (neither side or total were correct). So I was slightly better on sides (ATS) and slightly worse on totals (O/U).

Did you notice that the NFC East (DAL, NYG, PHI, WAS) lost every game? That's two weeks in a row a division has lost every game SU (last week AFC North - BAL, CIN, CLE, PIT).

Hmmmm.... I picked all the night games correctly, TNF, SNF and MNF, hooorayy!

2013 - week 02 - results

Thursday, September 12, 2013

2013 - week 02 - picks

09/15 1:00 PM
195 SD 55 **OVER**
196 PHI -7½ *

PHI 49=rush attempts last week @WAS

09/15 1:00 PM
197 CLE 43½ UNDER
198 BAL -6½ **

CLE OL struggles
CLE nickel weak, must zone, no man2man

09/15 1:00 PM
199 TEN 43 **
200 HOU -9 UNDER

HOU slow start last week @SD

09/15 1:00 PM
201 MIA 43 *
202 IND -3 under

strength vs strength
MIA D (top5D?) vs IND O
MIA O can't run ball less thean 1yd avg @CLE
MIA weakness KOR's? allowed 4 returns @CLE

09/15 1:00 PM
203 CAR -3 *
204 BUF 43½ **UNDER**

CAR O 'glacial'

09/15 1:00 PM
205 STL 47½ *?
206 ATL -6½ over

09/15 1:00 PM
207 WAS 49 under?
208 GB -7½ *

until WAS tackles better, it's hard to take a chance on them

09/15 1:00 PM
209 DAL 46½ over
210 KC -3 *

09/15 1:00 PM
211 MIN 41 *under*
212 CHI -6 ***

MIN QB Ponder out of sync

09/15 4:05 PM
213 NO -3 *****
214 TB 47½ over

NO DT Bunkley out
TB can they minimize their penalties? COMM issues
sloppy sloppy sloppy O to start the season
what's up w/TB?
TB SS Goldson one man wreckin' crew
TB G Nicks returns?

09/15 4:05 PM
215 DET -1½ *
216 ARI 47½ OVER*?*

DET miscues/penalties, but talented

09/15 4:25 PM
217 JAC 39½ UNDER
218 OAK -5½ *

JAC CB Gratz out

09/15 4:25 PM
219 DEN -4½ *OVER*
220 NYG 55 *

NYG HC Coughlin embarrassed last week @DAL

09/15 8:30 PM
221 SF 44½ under
222 SEA -3 *

09/16 8:40 PM
223 PIT 40½ UNDER
224 CIN -7 *****

2013 - week 02 Thursday - picks

09/12 8:25 PM
101 NYJ 44 *
102 NE -12½ **UNDER**

NYJ very lucky last week
NYJ TE Cumberland out?

This isn't a pick for an upset, I just wonder if NE can cover a double digit spread

Wednesday, September 11, 2013

GRID ranking - week 02

GRID ranking - week 02

I know, I know, I have CIN above CHI and TB above NYJ, though CIN and TB lost to their respective opponents, I still believe they are the better team. NYJ was lucky to get the win vs TB and CIN appeared to "coast" too soon in their game, play calling especially was not aggressive. In both cases, TB and CIN may not have a great closer or 'killer' instinct, more play calling than on the players IMO.

TEN D is responsible for their jump, very impressive. It's their pass O that may cause them problems, but if they keep running the ball, they'll slug it out in their division. D's that were impressive (beyond the normal SF, SEA, CHI), MIA, NO, DAL, KC and PHI all were attacking and huge factors in week 01 wins.

Friday, September 06, 2013

2013 - week 01 - results

BAL @DEN, this game had DEN written all over it, besides the game banners of BAL QB Flacco hanging in DEN, the NFL and/or BAL was unable to convince the Baltimore Orioles to move their game to accomodate the normal home game opener for the Super Bowl champions. Tie this is with the leadership loss and roster churn this off season for BAL and BAL played very well into the half and led 17-14. BAL did have two significant injuries occur in Q2 to WR/PR/KR Jones and RT Oher. DEN QB Mannings record tie'g 7 passing TDs set the total OVER just by themselves. A lot more scoring than I envisioned and a lot more ST errors, that led to turnovers and eventually TDs by both teams. DEN LB Woodyard was injured in Q4 as well though the game was well in hand by then. A notable numbers of drops by BAL WR's and TE's occurred as well, BAL is in early season form, DEN closer to mid season form.

CIN @CHI, CBS game, CIN for the most part played a very good game, CHI O was dependent on their D and their opportunistic ways, CHI CBs are top three, CB Tillman played very well. CHI should have lost IMO, but I think CIN had a bit of a let down mid-Q3, CIN TE rookie looks like a keeper, CIN LB Burfict was injured in 2nd Half Q4 I think.

ATL @NO, FOX game, ATL played fairly well for most of the game, NO O played inspired at times and their D came up w/big plays when they needed it. This was not to be ATL day.

GB @SF, FOX game, GB D looks improved LB Mathews is in mid-season form, not so much w/their O, game was tied 21-21 into Q4. SF is very interesting passing their way for the majority of game and then counting on their ground game to control Q4

NYG @DAL, NBC, SNF, NYG 6TOs, (3 QB Manning ints, 2 Wilson fumbles, 1 ST error) 3 in a row to start the game should have put them in a deep hole but they emerged w/a 3-3 tie and kept it close for the majority of the game. Injuries also occurred....

Not the greatest of results especially ATS, surprisingly ok with Totals, quite the opposite of expected results, in many games.

2013 - week 01 - results

Surprise of the weekend - TEN road win @PIT

the entire AFC North lost there season openers, BAL, CIN, CLE, PIT
NFC South 1-3 SU
AFC East 3-1 SU
AFC South 3-1 SU
NFC West 3-1 SU

Thursday, September 05, 2013

2013 - week 01 - picks

09/08 1:00 PM
453 NE -10 ***
454 BUF 50½ *UNDER*

BUF rookie QB Manuel starts
BUF CB Gilmore out

09/08 1:00 PM
455 TEN 42½ under
456 PIT -7 * 

PIT OL run game struggling looks link dink n dunk season
TEN as QB Locker goes so goes their O

09/08 1:00 PM
457 ATL 54 *
458 NO -3 OVER

NO DL/DEx2 IR?, LB issue?
NO WR Meacham returns

09/08 1:00 PM
459 TB -3 *****
460 NYJ 40 under

TB O run first in RZ
TB G Nicks doubtful - big loss
NYJ rookie QB Smith starts (not ready?)
Can NYJ score?

09/08 1:00 PM
461 KC -3½ ***
462 JAC 41 under

JAC will need to win w/run O
JAC unsure of O, will they score?

09/08 1:00 PM
463 CIN 42½ **
464 CHI -3 over

so why is CHI favored?

09/08 1:00 PM
465 MIA 41 under
466 CLE -1 *

MIA O 'between the 20's team', can't score in RZ during preseason
CLE youngest team in NFL?

09/08 1:00 PM
467 SEA -3 ****
468 CAR 45½ over?

CAR OL issues?

09/08 1:00 PM
469 MIN 46½ *
470 DET -4 UNDER

MIN can control game

09/08 1:00 PM
471 OAK 47½ UNDER
472 IND -9 *****

OAK worst OL and DL?

09/08 4:25 PM
473 ARI 41 *? 
474 STL -4½ UNDER


09/08 4:25 PM
475 GB 49½ over
476 SF -5 *

strength vs strength
GB O vs SF D

09/08 8:30 PM
477 NYG 48½ UNDER
478 DAL -3 *

NYG OL issue C, RG less than 3 yrs/0 starts each, RT rookie
NYG 2ndary?
NYG as much as 5 starters injury prone this year
DAL Guard issues, 6 guards with various inj's
DAL NT Ratliff out
DAL DE Spencer out

09/09 7:10 PM
479 PHI 50½ OVER?
480 WAS -4 *

PHI D hmmm?
WAS DL stout vs run, OL depth???

09/09 10:20 PM
481 HOU -3½ ****
482 SD 44½ UNDER

what will SD do?

Wednesday, September 04, 2013

2013 - week 01 - Thursday - picks

09/05 8:30 PM
451 BAL 48 UNDER
452 DEN -8 *

NFL Marketing flying Flacco banners @mile high stadium
duhh... advantage DEN, no respect from NFL
as if losing to BAL in last years playoffs wasn't enough motivation for DEN
BAL DT Jones out, other DL issues
DEN LB Von Miller susp'd

DEN could've won last year, BAL team experience seemed to take the game over, I don't see the same experience with BAL this year...

Tuesday, September 03, 2013

2013 - QB's Sophomore slump or not?

What can we expect from the young QB's this 2013 season? I'll make my predictions and hopefully remember to review at the end of the season. Here's my impressions of all the young guns...

IND QB Luck did the most with the least amount of surrounding talent last season. Upgrades are really good, lets see if chemistry still keeps team on winning ways. I expect a similar season as last years W-L record, clearly Luck and Co. should be on the upswing.

SEA QB Wilson, talented, but young team, another team that points upward, a little more cohesion is what I expect and another playoff appearance.

WAS QB Griffin, talented with a mid age team (not too many older or younger players) that had injury issues especially on D. Again another team that points upward and a better W-L record. Though this year they are already having some injury issues.

SF QB Kaepernick, talented and older team, again a team that can make another leap, I think ATL and DAL stand in their path during the playoffs. They did lose some very good backups who'll be starting for other teams.

MIN QB Ponder, talented team, continue running game emphasis, it's coverages that confuse Ponder, hopefully another playoff run. This team can play keep away from their division opponents (CHI, DET, GB)

CLE QB Weeden, an older talented QB, I wonder just how much patience they will have with him as he learns another system. Very tough division, if they can split their season series, consider it a very good year.

MIA QB Tannehill, top 10 D, but O appears to be on decline, at best an 8-8 record, flatlined for this season.. I lean toward a decline for their W-L record.

JAC QB Gabbert, that hand injury is a big red flag, I suspect accuracy issues will abound due to lack of synch with WRs. IMO they should rest him, put him on PUP. Can't and won't do better this season.

TEN QB Locker, media labels him as an athletic QB, I see accuracy issues, again an emphasis on the running game will do wonders.

STL QB Bradford (should he be on this list?) a young but talented team in perhaps the toughest division, my favorite dark horse to improve this season. But this may not happen in their W-L record this year, but one can hope right?

CAR QB Newton (should he be on list?), I'm unsure which way to swing on this above or below 8-8 record? With a new OC I'll be inclined to say a down grade, yep I don't trust play calling of Shula's son.

NYJ QB Smith, from what I've seen, they need to rely on running game.

BUF QB Manuel or QB Tuel, again emphasis on running game will do wonders for QBs.

OAK QB Flynn or QB Prior, the weakest supporting cast, not much hope...