Tuesday, September 28, 2010

2010 season week 03 - results

What I don't understand is, Why does this have to be so difficult when formatting this blog???
sigh.... ( I just added a table)

Anyway, dismal results this week, but I was experimenting w/another technique of picking games and it just fell flat. I thought I noticed a pattern over the past two weeks, but of course if it was too good to be true, it was too good to be true... sigh

On another note, Game Rewind is nowhere near as good as Preseason. What? Am I crazy? I don't think so.... let me explain. I got hooked on watching Preseason because of the '4-plex' mode. I could watch 4 games at a time, it was great use of time. I would usually pick a game and watch until about the end of the 1st quarter or so, sometimes longer, (you can sense which way the game is going for the home or road team), I would then drag the next game into the 4-plex screen and continue you watching again until I had a feel for the game and do the same thing for game 3 and game 4. When game 1 ended if I had time I would drag another game into the 4-plex mode and continue watching. This is really efficient.

Now watching one game at a time just doesn't seem worth it, except I already paid for the whole season. So now I really need to pick games that are 'worthy'. I just don't have enough time to watch all the games in the hours I have. I work nights now (recent new employment), so I normally miss the majority of games played. Deeming which games are worthy is cumbersome. I try to watch 6 - 8 games over the rest of the week, but this is just not efficient.

I sent e-mail to that neulion? support, but they weren't helpful at all. I've sent comments to nfl.com, but I don't expect anything to happen. This is just for venting, I guess. Weekly results below:

GameATSO/Ufavored side/totalOLage diff (older should win)
For the Year19-26-321-2722-25-128-19-1

Sunday, September 26, 2010

Season 2010 week 3

GAME pick(more *, O, or U = favored side or total ) OLage(based on home team, -older, +younger)

09/26 1:00 PM
399 TEN 43½ *
400 NYG -3 UUUUU -15 OLyrs
NYG C O'Hara is listed as doubtful, new C = blocking snafus

09/26 1:00 PM
401 BUF 42½ UUU
402 NE -14.5 * -14 OLyrs

09/26 1:00 PM
403 CLE 37 UU
404 BAL -11 **** +6 OLyrs

09/26 1:00 PM
405 PIT -2.5 UUU
406 TB 33½ * -4 OLyrs
PIT D is playing out of this world, but after two emo wins by D
I think this is the letdown week and TB wins ATS

09/26 1:00 PM
407 CIN -3 ****
408 CAR 38 UU +8 OLyrs

09/26 1:00 PM
409 ATL 49½ OOO
410 NO -3 * +1 OLyrs

09/26 1:00 PM
411 SF -2.5 **
412 KC 37 U -26 OLyrs

09/26 1:00 PM
413 DET 42½ **
414 MIN -12 U +2 OLyrs

09/26 1:00 PM
415 DAL 47 OO
416 HOU -2.5 * +17 OLyrs

09/26 4:05 PM
417 WAS -4 UUU
418 STL 38½ * +13 OLyrs

09/26 4:05 PM
419 PHI -3 OO
420 JAC 44½ * -0 OLyrs

09/26 4:15 PM
421 IND -6 ***
422 DEN 47½ OO +15 OLyrs

09/26 4:15 PM
423 SD -4.5 UUU
424 SEA 44 * -11 OLyrs

09/26 4:15 PM
425 OAK 39 UUUU
426 ARI -4.5 * -5 OLyrs

how did I forget/miss posting the below??? sigh...

09/26 8:20 PM
427 NYJ 35½ *
428 MIA -2.5 OO +5 OLyrs

09/27 8:35 PM
429 GB -3 OOOO
430 CHI 46 * +7 OLyrs(-6 w/o LG & LT)
reports are circulating Bulaga will play

Tuesday, September 21, 2010

2010 season wk02 - results

GameATSO/Ufavored side/totalOLage diff (older should win)
For the Year12-17-316-1617-14-120-11-1

Thursday, September 16, 2010

Season 2010 week 02

09/19 1:00 PM
207 KC 39 **
208 CLE -2 O OL age diff +4
KC & CLE have ST standouts, KC's D is better than O and CLE O is better than D
this sorta cancels each other out strength vs strength, weakness vs weakness,
I say take the points

09/19 1:00 PM
209 BUF 43 UUUU
210 GB -13 * OL age diff -11
GB QB Rodgers looked mortal on the road @PHI last week,
time to go home and add to the lore, but I'm taking under because if I were
BUF I'd play keep away

09/19 1:00 PM
211 BAL -2 ***
212 CIN 40 O OL age diff -6
BAL emo high last week, but this div rival, beat them twice last year, this is for LY

09/19 1:00 PM
213 PIT 37 UU
214 TEN -5.5 **** OL age diff -1
at first glance, Under the total seems to be the right choice,
but maybe it's the side, PIT LT & NT out.

09/19 1:00 PM
215 PHI -6 UUU
216 DET 41 * OL age diff -8
I'm wanting to take PHI w/QB Vick vs taking DET w/QB Hill
but it's a home opener, DET was unlucky last week, w/a little luck they'll cover

09/19 1:00 PM
217 CHI 41 U
218 DAL -7.5 * OL age diff -6
if CHI was lucky last week, DAL was unlucky, time for a role reversal

09/19 1:00 PM
219 TB 39 *
220 CAR -3.5 U OL age diff +9
it's tough to take CAR, they should have a running game, maybe TB wasn't really
lucky last week, it just took a while to come up w/a better D scheme

09/19 1:00 PM
221 ARI 43 U
222 ATL -6.5 ** OL age diff -4
I just don't believe in ARI O

09/19 1:00 PM
223 MIA 39½ UUU
224 MIN -5.5 * OL age diff -8
should be a rugged game, just how will MIA score?

09/19 4:05 PM
225 STL 37½ UUUU
226 OAK -3.5 * OL age diff -8
Under is the better play here, just can't take the points, until I can judge
STL O much better

09/19 4:05 PM
227 SEA 40 ***
228 DEN -3.5 O OL age diff +7
for me SEA was the big surprise last week, here's the outright upset

09/19 4:15 PM
229 HOU -3 *
230 WAS 43½ OOO OL age diff -11
HOU coming off huge emo win last week, this is normally a let down week,
except WAS maybe was just too lucky last week

09/19 4:15 PM
231 JAC 45½ *
232 SD -7 UUUU OL age diff -0
JAC coming off big win, maybe an emo win, and SD coming off big loss,
SD is notorious for slow starts in Sept, so JAC is a weak pick

09/19 4:15 PM
233 NE -2.5 ***
234 NYJ 38½ U OL age diff +12
NE should be highly focused, NYJ has yet to show any real O

09/19 8:20 PM
235 NYG 47½ ****
236 IND -5.5 O OL age diff +11
just play keep away w/IND and NYG will win handily

09/20 8:35 PM
237 NO -5.5 ***
238 SF 44 U OL age diff +19
Number seems small, NO going against another good D, except what happened last week
w/SF vs SEA? was it all the O's fault? nothing to do w/D? Playing catch up w/NO is really tough to do for any team and SF O appears to be a bit woeful

2010 season wk01 - results

game ATS O/U
Totals 7-7-2 8-8

interestingly enough the older OL did tend to win ATS & SU except for DAL @WAS, IND @HOU, ATL @PIT, and DET @CHI, w/a wk01 record of 12-4 which is a lot better than what I picked, let's see what happens next week.

It just occurred to me that except for the IND @HOU game, the remaining games were very close, down to the wire game, DET shouldn't they have won? DAL and penalty killing TD, and OT w/ATL.

Another thought ... except for ATL @PIT, the rest were Division games

oops somehow missed MIA @BUF record should be 11-5 ATS, but again another Division game...

acck DET did win ATS so 12-4 and they were the older OL, just they lost SU

and w/BAL @NYJ OL age are equal, so taking dog was the way to go

and I almost forgot to post ATS favored side or total record 9-6-1

Sunday, September 12, 2010

better late than never...

I've read about STATS LLC and decided to take a look at their site if I could find it.
googling of course, brought up other sites, but not too far down I saw this URL...


I find it highly navigable, but I wonder how those espn analysts got a hold of the youngest teams stat. http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/news/story?id=5546190&campaign=rss&source=NFLHeadlines

now this is highly interesting as the younger the team, I forsee more errors, or penalties as well as turnovers at as always the wrong time (but is their a right time for TO's??). Thus you'll have an easier time of covering the number.

The article mentions CAR, TB, JAC, MIA, HOU so if you bet against all of them, your parlay pays 20-1.

But I would modify this as:

NYG -7 (vs CAR) and Under 41 (CAR O looked inept in preseason)
CLE +3 (@TB)
DEN +2.5 (@JAC)
and Over 47 IND @HOU

why do I leave out MIA? because they are @BUF and giving up -3.5 and though have some recent roster shuffle (9 players by my count) They could well cover this number.
Both teams have very poor recent history w/their opening game, so this became a stay away game for me, though I still favor MIA, They have more youth in their D, which is acceptable to me, much tougher to have youth on O. BUF will start CJ Spiller and I wonder if he'll be kept in to block on passing downs or rotated during pass plays. If BUF is forced to rotate (due to RB inability to block) then their O becomes predictable to D and they'll be that much more likely to lose.

But I digress, STATs LLC appears to be a worthy site, now I just need to find their RSS feed...

Saturday, September 11, 2010

season 2010 week 01

This week I wanted to try something different using OL age difference as a gauge. Note: these lines were the early lines from last week. I've also indicated favored side and total. For example, Thursday's game MIN @NO, two* and one U, I liked the side more than the total. Check the 1st game CAR @NYG, four * side and one U again I like the side more. Looking for totals? check the IND @HOU game and GB @PHI, both should go over the total.

JAC appears to have a decided advantage along OL, I just think DEN is a front runner team, as I recall they did win six games in a row last year, we'll see how this year goes...

09/09 8:30 PM
451 MIN 49 U
452 NO -4.5 **, -1 OLyrs

09/12 1:00 PM
453 CAR 41 U
454 NYG -7 ****, -14 OLyrs

09/12 1:00 PM
455 MIA -3.5 ***
456 BUF 38½ U, -1 OLyrs

09/12 1:00 PM
457 ATL -2.5 OO, -3 OLyrs
458 PIT 38 *

09/12 1:00 PM
459 DET 43 **, -2 OLyrs
460 CHI -6 O

09/12 1:00 PM
461 CIN 44½ *
462 NE -4.5 OOO, -10 OLyrs

09/12 1:00 PM
463 CLE 37 ***
464 TB -3 O, -8 OLyrs

09/12 1:00 PM
465 DEN 39½ ***
466 JAC -2.5 O, -12 OLyrs

09/12 1:00 PM
467 IND -2.5 OOOO, -7 OLyrs
468 HOU 47 *

09/12 1:00 PM
469 OAK 41 *
470 TEN -6.5 UUUU, -2 OLyrs

09/12 4:15 PM
471 GB -3 *****, -11 OLyrs
472 PHI 47½ O

09/12 4:15 PM
473 SF -2.5 **
474 SEA 38 O, -9 OLyrs

09/12 4:15 PM
475 ARI -4 O, -5 OLyrs
476 STL 39 **

09/12 8:20 PM
477 DAL -4 **, -3 OLyrs
478 WAS 40½ U

09/13 7:00 PM
479 BAL 36 ***
480 NYJ -2.5 U, -0 OLyrs

09/13 10:15 PM
481 SD -5.5 **
482 KC 45 U, -5 OLyrs

Wednesday, September 08, 2010

Early notes - thoughts 9Sept2010

Here's what a buddy(D) 'n' I have made as our early picks:

Over 37.5 ATL @PIT
Over 47 IND @HOU
CLE +3 @TB
NE -4.5 vs CIN

DET +6.5 @CHI
GB -3 @PHI
SF -3 @SEA
BAL +2.5 @NYJ

Thurs night NFL

I'll take NO -5.5 and under 48.5
I'm unsure w/MIN O passing game, sure they can run the ball and maybe Peterson will get 'fumblitis', but w/D MLB EJ Henderson coming back from inj is one of the key players I'll be closely watching. Back to O, Favre should be able to get some nice catches w/current crop of WR's, due to in part NO D w/o Sharper and maybe even MLB Vilma, but I think it'll be stalemate for the most part and MIN O will really need to use run O to score.
If Favre gets an INT, everything favors NO, it's just not likely for Brees and Co to misfire, preseason shows they are near mid-season form (GB is the only team that appears to have more weapons).
NO D is their only weakness due to inj's, but scheme wise they are excellent and a top 5 D IMHO. I agree -5.5 maybe a bit much to give up, but I'm expecting a miscue or two by MIN O as this year they start out this season w/a much tougher schedule than last year (LY CLE, DET 1st 2 games almost like preseason for Favre and Co). So for me it came down who appears to be more ready for the season? The answer is obvious, NO and I'm thinking if true then 'will they cover a less then TD spread?' and again I'm thinking very likely.
As far as over and under total, normally on isolated games (Thursday night, Sunday night and MNF) I lean toward the over, but in this case, if MIN O is not hitting on all cylinders, they may not score 20pts, so going over 48.5 or 7 scores, could happen, but again I think not likely, it may go over 48.5pts, but 10 scores may need to occur, something like 30-20 [3TD,3FG - 2TD,2FG], but I'm thinking more likely 27-17.

Let the games begin....