Thursday, August 30, 2007

8/30 - 31 picks last week preseason

08/30 7:00 PM
101 BUF 37½ DRx3 cameo appearances, mostly QB T Edwards
102 DET -3 Ox3 same here - I expect to see QB JT O'Sullivan
BUF & under*

08/30 7:30 PM
103 NYG 36 Rx3
104 NE -3½ will work on running game Rx3
NYG* & under

08/30 7:30 PM
105 NYJ 36 O+6
106 PHI -2½ O+6,U+6 note: they'll see each other in week 6
PHI* & under

08/30 7:30 PM
107 WAS 35 outage last wk 2nd,3rd more?WAS+6,Ux3
108 JAC -3½ JAC+6
JAC & under*

08/30 8:00 PM
109 CLE 37
110 CHI -4 Ox3
CHI & over*

08/30 8:00 PM
111 DAL 37 Hx3
112 MIN -2
MIN & under

08/30 8:00 PM
113 GB 37
114 TEN -7 starters into 3rd, open positions RB,MLB,WR#2,secondaryx2 RDx3
TEN** & under

08/30 8:00 PM
115 HOU 37 Hou/ODx3
116 TB -3 opp+6
HOU*** & over

08/30 8:00 PM
117 KC 36½ Ux3
118 STL -3 opp+6
KC-RB-Johnson-expected to play (up to) a few series
STL & over**

08/30 8:00 PM
119 PIT 35 starter 1Q?
120 CAR -4
CAR & under**

08/30 8:00 PM
121 MIA -1
122 NO 38 DRx3
MIA* & under

08/30 9:00 PM
123 ARI 39
124 DEN -4 D needs more work, starters into 3rd?
DEN (RB) Henry Doubtful
DEN & under*

08/30 10:00 PM
125 SF 38½ O+6
126 SD -2½ Ox3
SF (RB) Gore Questionable
SD (RB) Tomlinson Doubtful
SF** and over

08/30 10:00 PM
127 OAK 37½ Hx3
128 SEA -2½
OAK*** & over**

08/31 7:30 PM
143 BAL -3½ power outage last wk starters into 2nd, 3rd more?
144 ATL 34
BAL & under**

08/31 7:30 PM
145 IND 40½
146 CIN -5 DOx3
CIN*** & under

D = dog, F = favorite
U = under, O = over
R = road, H = Home
opp = opponent
+6, -6 = teaser line
x3 = 3 game streak

Wednesday, August 29, 2007

Kirwan's Preseason Sacks

I just read this article "Now's the time to get handle on pass protection" and I wish I had read it earlier, I also would like to review this w/week 3 numbers added. It could use another column, interceptions, would be nice to see and perhaps completion rate as well.

time something I could use more of, but I have less and less of as time passes by ....

Using the numbers the article shows, you could expect better games (more wins?) from Houston, Oakland, Atlanta, Detroit this year and I guess I wouldn't get my hopes up for Buffalo, Carolina, Kansas City, Miami, Minnesota, NYG, Pittsburgh, San Diego, San Francisco, Seattle, & Washington.

you know I think I figured it out. Go to select By Player Category, choose Passing, then click on Team heading and voila, it's sorted by team w/sacks in the 2nd farthest from the right and Attempts just a couple of columns over from Team.

This makes it really interesting as STL QB Bulger has a rating of 51 and 2nd stringer STL QB Frerotte has a rating of 102.4

other hot backup QB's - BUF T Edwards, CLE B Quinn, GB A Rodgers, JAC D Garrad, MIA J Beck, NYJ K Clemens, SD B Volek, SF T Dilfer, TB B Gradkowski, and TEN K Collins

even worse is MIA T Green rated at 47.9

Sunday, August 26, 2007

8/25 results - comments, 8/26 picks

winning plays: How I did:

IND & OVER 1-1, side:no, total:yes
TB & OVER 0-2, side:no, total:no
WAS & UNDER 2-0, side:yes, total:yes ***note*** game ended w/power outage
HOU & OVER 1-1, side:no, total:yes
NYJ & UNDER 1-1, side:yes, total:no
SF & OVER 0-2, side:no, total:no
SEA & OVER 1-1, side:yes, total:no
CLE & UNDER 1-1, side:yes, total:no
SD & OVER 2-0, side:yes, total:yes

***vegas I believed returned money on the BAL/WAS game due to the fact the game was not completed normally due to power outage ***

ATS 9-9 sigh 1/2 correct overall, I was a really mystified w/TB/MIA & SF/CHI game

I should've listened to Brent Crow radio Thursday archive @sportsmemo site, but I missed it and wasn't thinkin' of it.

DYK that the Station Casinos allows 6, 6.5, & 7 pt Teasers? Coast Casinos does as well and already has parlay cards out for Preseason action, which doesn't pay as well as off the board, but will have (depending on line/total movement) better numbers on game days.

HOU O appears to be much better, half of HOU D is good, other half well....,
I think Miami O&D will have problems,
I'm wondering about WAS is Gibbs playing possum or will they stink at the beginning just like last year?
ARI has definitely improved on O though run game could improve,
DAL D at times is too aggressive and can be fooled, O sometimes appears to be predictable or is it me?
DEN appears to have D issues and perhaps O as well, though this could be play calling
SD very good though I thought I noticed that when TE Gates appears to linger about 1/2 second in huddle longer than normal, then the play is going to him. I could be wrong there weren't many closeup to ID players, but @field level I wonder if LB's are paying attention and even if they knew could most LB's stop Gates? D is fine, though safety/CB mental lapses do occur. which accounts for ARI QB Leinart getting long pass play completions over the top.
CLE when will QB Brady start?

289 PHI 36
290 PIT -3
PIT*** and under

PHI 36 @ PIT -3

w/PHI U+6 2-0 O+6 2-0 fav 2-0 home 2-0
w/PIT O/U 0-3, U+6 3-0, opp+6 2-1

should be an under game PIT D allowed 7,13,10 pts, fav to win


CIN -3.5 @ ATL 38

w/CIN opp+6 3-0 ATS, Over-6 2-0
w/ATL opp+6 1-0-1 ATS, O/U-/+6 1-1

should be an over game CIN D gives up 27pts x 2, ATL to prove something?

Saturday, August 25, 2007

8/25 picks and comments for 8/24

due to other priorities I was unable to blog my picks for Friday's games. I did watch portions of STL @OAK and TEN @BUF. I believe OAK will be a much better team this year and you could bet on over the total number of wins for the season. STL needs RB S Jackson or they could have been playing much more conservatively, so I'm not sure w/them.
BUF w/o QB Losman or should I say WR L Evans will be in a world of hurt.
TEN is improving despite the loss of veteran players during the off season, though w/their schedule I doubt if they will improve upon their SU W/L record from last year.

8/25 picks

08/25 7:00 PM
271 Det 40 will QB Kitna play?
272 Ind -5
officialy a no pick, DET and Over*

08/25 7:30 PM
273 TB -2 QB Simms to play in 3rd? "clarifying their depth chart"
274 Mia 34 "most vanilla O", 3rd QB Beck "plays well"
Under**** and MIA

08/25 8:00 PM
275 Dal -3 will they blitz or not?
276 Hou 39½ getting better
DAL** & Over

08/25 8:00 PM
277 Bal -3½
278 Was 32 UUU - beat up?
WAS (QB) Campbell Questionable
UNDER**** and WAS

08/25 8:00 PM
279 NYJ -3 QB Clemmens would start on most teams
280 NYG 37
NYG (WR) Burress OUT
NYJ** and over

08/25 8:00 PM
281 SF 37½
282 Chi -6
SF (RB) Gore will not play
CHI* and Under

08/25 9:00 PM
283 Cle 37
284 Den -6 beat up, lotsa inj's
DEN (RB) Henry OUT
DEN and under**** changed my mind CLE and over**

08/25 9:00 PM
285 Min 38
286 Sea -7 QB Hasselbeck starts into 3rd?
SEA and under***

08/25 10:00 PM
287 SD -3
288 Ari 40½ starters to play 1st half?
SD (RB) Tomlinson will not play
SD* and over***

QB Comments

this says it all:

Wednesday, August 22, 2007

8/23 pix

08/23 8:00 PM
261 Jac -2½ QB Leftwich plays 1st half, RG Naeole out, OOOver
262 GB 39 health issues, 2nd,3rd qtrs vary combos of players - jobs in the air
pick JAC and over***

08/23 8:30 PM
263 NO 37½ starters 'til half
264 KC -1½ QB Croyle to start, hmmm game plan?
pick KC** and under

Monday, August 20, 2007

8/19-20 results

1-3 ATS

should have known BAL D is so dominant just playing under total should win some $$$

so CHI motivation as loser of SB and using SB champion IND as measuring stick, really could have been CHI key point, despite QB Grossman experiment, QB Griese did play well

for the year 30-28 ATS

Saturday, August 18, 2007

8/19 & 8/20

it's really tough to pick against BAL since they are a very deep team, but here it goes.

08/19 8:00 PM
479 NYG 33½
480 Bal -4
NYG and over

08/20 8:00 PM
481 Chi 35½
482 Ind -2½
IND and under

I know, I know, IND has no incentive and CHI wants to show they can play w/SB champs

but I'm experimenting w/leveling record for both games

8/18 results

whewwww, tough day

comments GB D wow, DEN??? DAL looks good, STL not bad at all

I went 0-fer w/NO @CIN, DEN @DAL, OAK @SF and perfect w/DET @CLE, TB @JAC, & SD @STL

ATS 9-9

for the year ATS 29-25

the leveling record parlay almost hit, except for ARI

and the trend parlay almost missed all except for SD

8/18 picks

08/18 4:00 PM
461 Hou 35 XX
462 Ari -3 short handed on DL and OL, U
pick HOU and Under note: going against leveling out record trend

08/18 7:00 PM
463 Det 35 XXX QB rotation much better,
464 Cle -2½ 3-0 ATS vs DET last 3 yrs preseason O/U 1-2
pick Det and over

08/18 7:30 PM
465 NO 38
466 Cin -3½ xxx 3-0 ATS in 2nd game of preseason last 3 years
pick CIN and under

08/18 7:30 PM
467 TB 35
468 Jac -4 xxx 3-0 ATS vs TB last 3 yrs preseason O/U 2-1
pick JAC and over

08/18 8:00 PM
469 Pit -1½
470 Was 33
pick PIT and over

08/18 8:00 PM
471 SD -2
472 STL 38 0-3 ATS in 2nd game of preseason last 3 years
pick SD and over

08/18 8:00 PM
473 Den 35½ last 5 as dog ATS 4-1
474 Dal -5
pick DEN and U

08/18 8:00 PM
475 Sea 35
476 GB -2½
pick GB and under, though this really should be a no pick game

08/18 10:00 PM
477 Oak 36½ 2-1 ATS vs SF last 3 year 1-2 O/U
478 SF -3½
pick OAK and under note: going against leveling out record trend

if you were to do the leveling record parlay you would pick:
462 ARI -3
463 DET +2.5
465 NO +3.5
471 SD -2
478 SF -3.5

following the trends take:
464 CLE -2.5
466 CIN -3.5
471 SD -2
473 DEN +4.5
477 OAK +3.5

fav totals:
461/462 HOU @ARI over 35.5
467/468 TB @JAC under 34 (note they meet in regular season 10/28 expect vanilla O)
469/470 PIT @WAS under 33
477/478 OAK @SF under 36.5

8/16 & 8/17 results

8/16 ATS 2-0 KC is in for a horrible year...

8/17 ATS 2-4 odd how I put an X next to TEN, but somehow I type NE ... sigh and I guess I should have picked PHI, but I ignored the 1st game back for McNabb factor.
MIN D looked great, though this is 2nd game in a row for NYJ that went over total. NYJ QB Pennington has never had the strongest of arms, but he tended to make smart decisions .... I wonder when we'll see Clemens start? midway thru season?
BUF vanilla O looks pathetic, ATL hmmm O looks like a few fixes and it could be ok.
OL's for both TEN & NE allowed too many QB pressures/sacks

I did notice... that every team (excluding Thursdays participant MIA 2-0 & KC 0-2 and NE 0-1-1) got rid of the goose egg for their ATS record they're all 1-1

as for Over/Under records, notables include CAR, NYJ 2-0, BUF, KC 0-2

for the year ATS 20-16

Friday, August 17, 2007

8/17 picks

08/17 7:00 PM
453 Car 35 over??? O looked good last week @NYG XXX
454 Phi -3 too many inj's?
PHI (QB) McNabb Probable
pick CAR*** and over

08/17 7:00 PM
455 Atl 34 too many inj's? vanilla O
456 Buf -3 UUU
pick Under*** and BUF

08/17 8:00 PM
457 Ten 35 X
458 NE -5½ U
TEN (QB) Young Probable
pick under** and NE

08/17 8:00 PM
459 Min 34½ duds @WR/QB studs everyelse
460 NYJ -4 XXX
NYJ (RB) Jones Questionable
pick NYJ*** and under

Wednesday, August 15, 2007

8/16 Thursday game

ok I missed posting picks for Monday's games, I would have gotten BAL correct but a push on the total, w/DEN HC Shanahan record for preseason I suppose I would have picked them, though I would have favored under much more.

on to this thursday's game:

08/16 8:00 PM
451 Mia 34½ D front 7stacked,secondary?'s, will QB Green play entire 1st half again? probowl punter? WR/PR/KR Ginn too good to leave off field UUU???
452 KC -3 same Edwards mantra as last week "we want to win, I expect to win"
pick UNDER*** and MIA

Sunday, August 12, 2007

8/12 preseason

08/12 8:00 PM
289 Sea 35 U
290 SD -3.5 X

the total has moved a bit toward the under, I wish I had more time to check on QB's
SD has depth at all positions thus earning my pick and I don't expect SEA QB Hasselbeck to play w/QB Wallace to start, but for how long?

SD QB Rivers will start but again for how long? same question w/QB Whitehurst and the others

officially, a no pick, but I'll take SD and the under

8/11 results

ATS 6-8

unexpected GB really did start fast, but PIT was uninterested?

TEN QB Young announced will not play one hour before game and WAS DOESN'T start fast

CHI doesn't appear to be deep

OAK OL plays well in 1st qtr (only game I watched - just 1st qtr and parts 3rd and 4th)
ARI QB Leinart misses WR Fitzgerald on a couple of passes (high)

for the season ATS 16-12

Saturday, August 11, 2007

8/11 Saturday preseason picks

I'm on the road again, so I'm a bit late posting my picks -

08/11 7:30 PM
275 GB 35½ -* coach says fast start, QB Rogers qtrs 2&3 QB Ingle Martin qtr 4
276 Pit -6½ O vs another 4-3 D, U? X* blitzburgh
pick PIT*** and over

08/11 7:30 PM
277 Jac -2½ QB Leftwich and Garrad QTRs 1 & 2, which QB's for 3rd/4th? U?
278 Mia 34 4 new ST players, QB Beck throws deep ball well, not much to go on X?
pick MIA and under

08/11 7:30 PM
279 KC 35 X*U* how long will QB Croyle play? Huard is fine, Printers is a project
280 Cle -3 * this should be a no pick game
pick KC and under***

08/11 8:00 PM
281 Was 35½ no fights in TC, more injs, fast start, Campbell, Brunell, Palmer
282 Ten -3 more physical camp, lots of positions open, run game, Young, Collins, Rattay
pick Ten and over***

08/11 8:00 PM
283 Car 35 X* new OC - not enough news
284 NYG -1 X*O* new DC, Manning, Hasselbeck, Lorenzen all looking good
pick NYG*** and over

08/11 8:00 PM
285 Chi -1 U* very good player depth, Grossman, Griese, Orton XXX*
286 Hou 32 X* 1st strng 1st qtr, 2nd strg into 1/2 of 3rd qtr, the rest play whats left, D leads team
pick CHI** and under

08/11 10:00 PM
287 Ari 34½ hmmm Leinart Warner Boyd? Korrodi? no rookies as starters - trust between OL & QB
288 Oak -1½ McCown Walter Culpepper, cut blocking run game U?
pick OAK** and over

8/10 results

ATS 6-2

picked wrong game for over though historically NE and scored a lot in 1st game, NYJ is not playing the same as last preseason, they are now a bet on team IMHO.

for the season ATS 10-4

Thursday, August 09, 2007

8/10 Preseason Picks

favored side or total ***

08/10 7:00 PM
267 Atl 33 vanilla O U?
268 NYJ -3½ -*XXX all QB's doing fine
pick NYJ** and under

08/10 7:30 PM
269 NE 33 X*U* ** XX? Over?23-16?
270 TB -3 X*SU XX??
pick NE and over*

08/10 8:00 PM
271 Buf 36 -* motivated but vanilla O, QB Trent Edwards bulk of snaps X
272 NO -6 -*QB Tyler Palko bulk of snaps U***
pick BUF and U***

08/10 8:00 PM
273 StL 35 -*only 2 inj's during TC, deep @RB, QB exp edge XXX***
274 Min -2 X* vanilla O
pick STL*** and U

8/9 results

ATS 2-2

1st game CIN @DET, what I noticed is that QB D Johnson played much longer and was more productive than I thought he would be, thus my picks being totally off instead of Fav/under combo the winning combo was dog/over (CIN D did get a TD and DET D did fairly well)

2nd game IND @DAL, just as predicted, pretty much followed reports from blogs etc. thus 2-0 ATS in this game

for the year ATS 4-2

Wednesday, August 08, 2007

Thursday 8/9 preseason picks

263 Cin 35 U
264 Det -3 X***

265 Ind 34 U**
266 Dal -5 X

Here's a url for CIN @DET game: DET new DC says we're setting tone for the season

not much on IND @DAL but I do like this blog:
note: IND QB Navarre was cut

here's one for DAL:
blitzing D looks like a winner SU, covering -5? well I'd take the chance

historically Dungy's teams in preseason are decidedly uninterested in winning game and the under is even more prevalent
DAL new HC Philips leans slightly to winning ATS and even less toward the over
CIN HC Lewis is nearly the same as DAL coach
DET HC Marinelli was 1-3 SU (2-2)ATS last year and 1-3 O/U

NFL Beat Writers Blogs

I picked up this url from Football Outsiders

this should help for preseason huh???

Sunday, August 05, 2007

HoF results

gee I thought it would rain at least once during the game, but somehow the rain stopped just for the game huh? Anyway my guess was on the $$ and I turned a nice little profit. We'll see if the rest of preseason has more "hidden" jewels.

I guess you can pretty much bet on PIT to cover as their intensity cannot be questioned w/their new coach. Meanwhile NO HC Payton is playing to the same tune as last year. You should be able to pick against them, but the total will be a bit harder unless you have a bead on their opposition, such as w/PIT .

I suspect in this Friday's game for NO that BUF should be favored and for PIT on Saturday they should be favored.

Friday, August 03, 2007

HoF game

261 NO 35.5 U**
262 PIT -2.5 X**

PIT HC is conducting tough 2-a-days, this should translate to a better chance to win this preseason game, covering the spread w/a D that wants the game. QB's look a bit better w/PIT and the drop off is noticeable w/NO.

note: NO in '06 preseason scored 19, 7, 14, 9 and allowed 16, 30, 27, 10 - an indicator that NO HC prefers to play possum in the preseason

This appears to be a 2-picker that will double your $$, of course PIT HC Tomlin could play possum as well, I lean toward the under...