Thursday, August 31, 2006

results preseason week 4

game 1, 1-1, CAR @PIT under 33.5 (win, best bet)
game 2, 1-1, NE +3.5
game 3, 2-0 MIA -3 (win, not -43)
game 4, 1-1, BUF +3.5 (win)
game 5, 0-2, JAC @ATL under 36
game 6, 2-0, BAL @WAS under 34 (win)
game 7, 1-1, TB @HOU under 35 (win)
game 8, 1-1, MIN @DAL under 34.5 (win)
game 9, 2-0, CHI +3 (win)
game 10, 2-0, NO @KC under 37 (win)
game 11, 2-0, DEN +3.5 (win)
game 12, 0-2, OAK @SEA under 36.5

overall 15-9
favored side or total 9-3
best bet 1-0

Sunday, August 27, 2006

week 1

GM# TEAM spread pick (bold - favored side or total, green - best bet)

101 MIA 34 under
102 PIT pk X
Lines moved alot on news of PIT QB not playing total dropping from 37 and PIT as -5 fav. I know, I know I originally picked MIA, but the more I thought about it the circumstances are set for PIT's D to prove once again it is a dominant force and that MIA's D is aging.

203 DEN -3.5 X
204 STL 46.5 under
3.5? should be 14.5 ....

205 NYJ 36 X
206 TEN -3 under
with so much starting QB ?'s unanswered, TEN lacks unity and a field general. OUT TEN TE E Kinney

207 BUF 41 under
208 NE -9 X
let's see what Jauron and staff can come up with to stop NE, I didn't see or hear a thing yep that's NE w/$$ and nice cap management, they don't need a WR in this game

209 BAL 34.5 under
210 TB -3 X
hard to choose side or total as under 34.5 is likely to occur

211 CIN 45.5 X
212 KC -3 over
straight up upset take the moneyline in this game

213 SEA -6 X
214 DET 45 under
spread should at least be -7.5 for me to stop and think .... nahhhh make it 10.5 OUT - SEA TE J Stevens

215 ATL 40.5 X
216 CAR -6 under
might be the best game of the day, I was really tempted to take ATL +6 as my favored choice, one of the reasons is ATL has an extra player because they have a triple threat kicker for FG's , punts, and KO's. ATL doesn't have to carry a separate punter or FG/KO kicker and that allows another good player (ATL appears to have an extra FB) or consider him a good ST player, which is the often overlooked part of the team, but in this case may give ATL an edge. OUT ATL LB E Hartwell

217 PHI -4 X
218 HOU 37 over
Let's just say PHI is back and HOU is rebuilding, could be a laugher ...

219 NO 37 X
220 CLE -3 under
tough to pick, CLE has a little more exp playing w/each other and NO doesn't have depth, You could take CLE -3 and make a case for the $$ OUT CLE CB D McCutcheon

221 DAL 36.5 X
222 JAC -2.5 under
DAL may make me sorry for taking them, JAC is a deep team w/a lot of team speed OUT? DT M Stroud

223 CHI -3.5 X
224 GB 34.5 over
another laugher maybe, QB Grossman should be able to move ball and you know their D at home is just stout. GB appears to be in rebuilding mode, not reload/restock mode

225 SF 42 under
226 ARI -7.5 X
Will SF score? this looks like a nice two team pick. INJ's ARI - RT O Ross, LB K Dansby

227 IND -3 X
228 NYG 49 over
little bro, needs more seasoning ...

229 MIN 35.5 X
230 WAS -4.5 over
You can buy a win in the NFL, game could go under if weather and WAS comply. OUT CB S Springs

231 SD -3 under
232 OAK 43.5 X
taking OAK, only cause 1st game on the road for SD QB Rivers, he won't be nervous now will he?

preseason week 4

game team spread pick
(favored side or total:bold, best bet: green)

301 CAR -3 U
302 PIT 33.5 X

303 NE 35 X
304 NYG -3.5 O

305 STL 35.5 O
306 MIA -43 X

307 BUF 35 X
308 DET -3.5 O

309 JAC 36 U
310 ATL -3.5 X

311 BAL -1 X
312 WAS 34 U

313 TB 35 U
314 HOU -5 X

315 MIN 34.5 U
316 DAL -7 X

317 CHI 33.5 X
318 CLE -3 U

319 NO -2 U
320 KC 37 X

321 DEN 36.5 X
322 ARI -3.5 O

323 OAK -1 X
324 SEA 36.5 U

343 TEN 36 O
344 GB -3 X

345 PHI 33.5 U
346 NYJ -6.5 X

347 CIN -2.5 X
348 IND 40.5 O

349 SD 35.5 U
350 SF -3.5 X

results preseason week 3 day5

game 16, 2-0, CIN -5.5

overall 17-15
favored side/total 10-6
best bet 3-0

results preseason week 3 day4

game 15, 0-2 , DEN -6, - HOU D is doing well holding DEN scoreless for a 1.5 quarters. Could it be other D's will notice and make it tougher on DEN O? I'm wondering if DEN will be as good this year as Kubiak brought 5 coaches from DEN to HOU and GM Rick Smith followed. Perhaps DEN is in the beginning of the downslope?

overall 15-15
favored side/total 9-6
best bet 3-0

results preseason week 3 day3

game 7, 0-2, BUF -3.5, BUF played better than CLE in 1st half

game 8, 1-1, under 42 IND @NO* (win) - reports on IND game scheme were correct (came out after I made picks) Manning made NO D look pathetic

game 9, 1-1, over 35 WAS @NE* (win) - another game where you wonder what is WAS doing, as they don't appear to be ready for season

game 10, 2-0, DAL -6.5* (win, also best bet) - SF O ho hum don't look around cause I can't score, DAL played as expected

game 11, 0-2, under 34 TB @JAC - lotsa of scoring late, 1st half D's dominated, JAC appears to be more "error prone"

game 12, 1-1, over 37.5 ATL @TEN - this year their seems to be alot of have's and have not's guess which category ATL and TEN fall in

game 13, 2-0, KC -3.5* (win) KC played well in 1st half, STL well ... they need work

game 14, 1-1, SD -3.5*(win) - sub'd SEA QB in 2nd qtr, should have known better and looked for the over

overall 15-13
favored side/total 9-5
best bet 3-0


have's 2nd tier

in between (lean: haves+, have nots-)
BAL+, OAK-, KC-, WAS-, CHI+, MIN+, GB-, STL-

have not's

Saturday, August 26, 2006

results preseason week 3 day2

game 2, 0-2, CHI -3, - ARI played better than CHI, though ARI OL holding not called by refs. ARI scored TD, while CHI settled for FG's in 1st half. ARI appears to be an improved team(the NFC W just got tougher). CHI appears to be in a holding pattern, w/no real O punch or is it play calling?

game 3, 1-1, NYG -4.5* (win) whooooweee NYG has D, NYJ well ... D is better than O

game 4, 1-1, BAL +2.5 - BAL O has too many errors, MIN D is playing much better (Tampa 2 cover? I see a lot of man coverage great DL pressure). MIN needs run O production. Both D's played well in 1st qtr.

game 5, 2-0, PHI -2.5* (best bet, win, forgot to note Under play), - hhmmm hard to gauge PIT, PHI is playing more inspired (less inj's) O is highly productive (spread cover? play on early often) PHI run D though appears suspect

game 6, 2-0, OAK -3 * (win) - Raider's have a definite attitude change, D is playing better, can O sustain play? DET needs a lot of work (bet against 1st regular season game and more?)

overall 7-5
favored side/total 4-2
best bet 2-0

Thursday, August 24, 2006

results preseason week 3

Game record favored side/total (notes)
game 1, 1-1, Under 36.5 (best bet) - I missed beginning of game (1st half) and tried a 2nd half bet which was correct w/total, but wrong w/side. :-(

overall 1-1
favored side/total 1-0
best bet 1-0

Wednesday, August 23, 2006

must read FO article

Every Play doesn't count Week 2 Football Outsiders article, consider this a primer, I agree w/many of their observations. Why not all, sadly day job(s)/sleep, keep me from watching all preseason games, though the NFL network definitely has made it easier.

Monday, August 21, 2006

preseason week 3

gm# team line pick ( picks in bold = favored side or total / green = best bet )
251 MIA 36.5 X
252 CAR -6 U

253 ARI 33.5 U
254 CHI -3 X

255 NYG -4.5 X
256 NYJ 35.5 O

257 BAL 35.5 X
258 MIN -2.5 U

259 PIT 35.5
260 PHI -2.5 X

283 DET 36 U
284 OAK -3 X

261 CLE 34.5 O
262 BUF -3.5 X

263 IND -3.5 U
264 NO 42 X
NO should be motivated after poor showing vs DAL, question is how long will QB Manning play?

265 WAS 35 X
266 NE -3 O
prior game comments: Gibbs' terse postgame comments weren't lost on his players.
"I think we need to come out with a little more emotion than we came out with, and I'm sure that's what (Gibbs) is concerned about," offensive tackle Jon Jansen said. " … Every time we go out, we go out to win ballgames." WAS does have alot of inj's and most of salary is w/starters not backups and points to a weakness w/WAS when backups are playing.

269 SF 35 U
270 DAL -6.5 X

271 TB 34 X
272 JAC -3 U

273 ATL 37.5 X
274 TEN -2.5 O
TEN another motivated team due to drubbing @DEN

275 STL 38.5 U
276 KC -3.5 X

277 SEA 37 U
278 SD -3.5 X

279 HOU 39 O
280 DEN -6 X

281 GB 42 O
282 CIN -5.5 X

results qb exp week 2 day5

game 16, 0-2, NO +3 (best bet) - LT for both teams were beaten in 1st qtr by DE. Speed rush w/NO DE beat DAL LT and bull rush w/DAL beat NO LT. DAL just has more options on O and a dominant DL. NO is wishing it had more options. NO O not enough work? reminds me of TEN @DEN, perhaps next week coaches will instruct D's to let opponent O to score in order for O to have more reps.

overall: 11-21
favored side/total: 8-8
best bet: 1-2

Sunday, August 20, 2006

results qb exp week 2 day4

game 14, 0-2, SF +3 (best bet) - OAK now 3-0 preseason, I guess SF is still rebuilding

game 15, 0-2, SEA +2.5 *(win) - QB's for both IND and SEA looks very good. SEA OL is still dominating inside 20. Second game in a row IND has ST "trickery" on kickoff/punt. I'd say SEA is a little deeper at most positions

overall: 11-19
favored side/total: 8-7
best bet: 1-1

again O/U 0-2 picks overall 4-11 (1-9 past 2 days) really crash/burn w/totals this weekend

Saturday, August 19, 2006

results qb exp week 2 day3

game 6, 1-1, MIA +2.5 *(win) - TB QB Simms got a FG from their 1st drive, 2nd drive wasn't good and 3rd drive OL didn't play as well (QB Rattay took over in 2nd qtr)
[ note: 2nd week in a row 1st score for TB is a FG].
MIA QB Culpepper played into 2nd and got into a rhythm (or TB D called off dogs in 2nd qtr) and got a TD. D's for both team are ahead of O.

game 7, 1-1, CAR +3 *(win) - CAR scored on 1st possession for 2nd week in a row, looking very good even against a very quick and tough JAC D. JAC QB Leftwich did not play for long (no TD or FG) QB Garrard and O played into 3rd, but CAR D proven to be up to the challenge and is at least a notch better than JAC

game 8, 0-2, ARI @NE over 37.5 - wow NE looks like in mid-season form QB Brady played for a lot longer than I thought he would and QB Cassell did well. QB Leinhart did well at first. Rain in 2nd half. I find it interesting that Eisen on NFL networks called the game "NE Brady vs ARI Leinhart" on highlights. ARI QB Warner is not getting any love, though I believe he's a team player and is really needed for Leinhart's ascent as well as ARI ascent this year. NE D (1st team) did very well vs ARI O (1st team). I should have been looking for ARI to be "flat" on the road after opening stadium last weekend.

game 9, 0-2, ATL +3 - After a poor showing last week @SD, GB really stepped it up this week, lucky at times, effort (speed) was a lot better @home. ATL Vick did good, just INT was bad spot. I thought ATL QB Schaub would play better.

game 10, 2-0, MIN +3.5 *(win) - PIT QB "Big Ben" played well scored TD, Safety Polamalu was out of position (got beat) a couple of times (losing 1/2 a step?). PIT w/o Roethlisberger is a different team as O is inconsistent, though prior preseasons were about the same and they are defending SB champs . I just wish PIT was more in sync during preseason. MIN OL played good, QB Johnson played very well as did RB C Taylor.

game 11, 0-2, STL-3.5 - HOU DE M Williams played a lot better, STL still has problems w/ST and did you notice STL 1st team has yet to score a TD?

game 12, 0-2, WAS -3 - you gotta expect a lot better effort next week from WAS as NYJ had their way for the most part except for the 1st qtr when neither team scored. It's two weeks in a row that WAS has not played well. NYJ OL and RB's played a lot better, ST hmmm punter needs work. NYJ RB L Washington, small by NFL standards (blocking), but a very smart (reads D very well) and quick runner. NYJ O attacked the edges of WAS D very well. Wet field.

game 13, 1-1, DEN -5.5 *(win) wet field, DEN @home adjusted quickly, TEN appeared to be very tentative at times.

ouch!... O/U totals, picks 1-7 (w/l) sigh...
sides break even at .500 (4-4)
Did you notice the dog was 5-1?

I came out ahead on my bets. How? I bet three 2-team parlays. A 2 team parlay pays $26 on a $10 bet. I had 3 $10 bets (or $30 out of pocket). I lost 2 bets (lost $20) won 1 bet (win $26 + original $10).
I ended up w/$36 in my pocket. That' s $6 more than what I started. So a little ahead. (20%)

overall: 11-15
favored side/total: 7-6
best bet: 1-0

Friday, August 18, 2006

results qb exp week 2 day2

game 3, 2-0, CIN +3.5 - CIN QB Wright is playing well, BUF is truly rebuilding and QB controversy? will only stagnate growth of team.

game 4, 0-2, DET @CLE Under 34 - NFL Network Analyst Marshall Faulk is very revealing in his assessment of DET and the Martz O w/Kitna at the controls. DET appears to be a team that getting points early in the season will be worthy of a play

game 5, 1-1, SD @CHI over 35.5 - while watching the game QB Grossman shows his greenness in throwing into double coverage, remember he has yet to play a whole season or even half a season and makes the mistakes of a rookie QB. QB Griese is the better QB and after all his travels is the seasoned QB that could take CHI to the promise land. QB Rivers as well makes rookie mistakes, I still think trading Brees was a mistake as SD has all the components to make a title run within AFC except for a QB to count on. SD RB Turner "The Burner" looks better and better and would start on many other teams.

overall: 6-4
favored side/total: 3-2
best bet: 1-0

Thursday, August 17, 2006

results qb exp week 2

game 1, 2-0 NYG -3.5 (also best bet)
game 2, 1-1 PHI @BAL under 34.5, BAL really wanted to win

overall 3-1
favored side/total 2-0
best bet 1-0

watching KC you get the feeling their DL and OL will have problems from the start. QB Trent Green plays well, but OL is lacking ???, DL had no penetration on several plays and were pushed around by NYG OL and allowed chunks of running yardage. NYG looks like they'll be favored for the rest of the preseason.

I noticed the absence of the words 1st qtr, 2nd qtr, 3rd qtr and 4th qtr. When did Fox start using those yellow dots. I read better than looking at those tiny dots. I guess if you have a small TV set you're outta luck w/the dots or you could turn up the volume for Buck and Aikman.

The Live Game stats at is nice and reminds me of a similar scheme at which I encounter prior to trying the NFL "live game stats"

Monday, August 14, 2006

Preseason QB exp 8/17-21 week 2

GM# team line qb exp pick
451 KC 38 12 U
452 NYG -3.5 17 X

453 PHI 34.5 19 X
454 BAL -3 7 U

455 CIN 35.5 15 X
456 BUF -3.5 15 O

457 DET 34 6 X
458 CLE -2.5 7 U

459 SD 35.5 6 O
460 CHI -3 12 X

461 MIA 34 9 X
462 TB -2.5 8 O

463 CAR 35 8 X
464 JAC -3 8 O

465 ARI 37.5 5 X
466 NE -3.5 2 O

467 ATL 36 4 X
468 GB -3 3 U

469 MIN 34.5 11 X
470 PIT -3.5 10 U

471 HOU 38.5 9 U
472 STL -3.5 19 X

473 NYJ 34.5 9 U
474 WAS -3 16 X

475 TEN 36.5 1 U
476 DEN -5.5 5 X

477 SF 37 24 X
478 OAK -3 9 O

479 SEA 39.5 8 X
480 IND -2.5 10 U

481 DAL -3 7 U
482 NO 35.5 24 X

results - qb experiment 8/6-14/06 day5 & 6

game 16, 1-1, I guess Gibbs & Co are content, only 3 pts ...very vanilla
game 17, 0-2, oh well I'm 0-fer w/OAK, they really want to win. QB T Jackson looks good (a steal for MIN). I wonder how long will QB Brooks will last? QB Walter seems to be picking up O fairly quickly.

overall 21-12-1 (63.6%)
Best Bets: 2-0
Favored side or total: 12-5 (70.5%)

I was unable to watch the majority of games due to job(s) commitment, watch'n NFL network, Cutler's passing prowess is getting the growl, I wonder if RB L Betts can carry the load for WAS?

Saturday, August 12, 2006

results - qb experiment 8/6-14/06 day4

game 9, 2-0
game 10, 2-0
game 11, 1-1, side on the $$, total should have seen the over
game 12, 1-1, I could have been 0-2 as total was @37 or less pts for the most part, side ??
though in my earlier post HOU is the way to go and against my earliest post, but good info will change your mind, I still would have ended up 1-1 just correct on side, wrong on total
game 13, 1-1, side on the $$, just short of total as I thought O was in effect
game 14, 1-1, should have paid more attention to qb exp more than GB scrimmage ...
game 15, 2-0,

overall: 20-9-1
Best Bets: 2-0
Favored side or total: 12-3

favored side/total track record
0-1 phi -3
1-0 under 33 cle @phi
0-1 over 40.5 ind @stl
1-0 tb -3.5
1-0 under 38 den @det
1-0 nyg +3
0-1 under 37 ne @atl
1-0 sf +2.5
1-0 under 36 pit @ari (also best bet)
1-0 buf +4.5
1-0 jac +3
1-0 under 38.5 kc @hou
1-0 no +1.5
1-0 under 37 gb @sd (also best bet)
1-0 dal +3
?-? over 35.5 was @cin
?-? min -3

Friday, August 11, 2006

results - qb experiment 8/6-14/06 day3

game 4, 2-0
game 5, 2-0
game 6, 1-1 side correct, you may have gotten a push on total
game 7, 0-1-1, push side, I could have predicted over total
game 8, 2-0
overall, 10-5-1

I watched the beginning of NE @ATL game and watched NE RB's making large gains. Maroney and Dillon had several nice runs. NE's young OL (all starting 5 <29 yrs old) did very well. Mora wanted to win even more than Belichick? (spelling)

Info at really makes the under 38.5 (and dropping) for the KC @HOU game another good play and taking a look at HOU -3 highly worthy of another play.

Thursday, August 10, 2006

results - qb experiment 8/6-14/06 day2

game 2, 2-0
game 3, 0-2
overall 3-3

a little goal line stance, by CLE D - nice, or wonderment for PHI if they can't punch it in, less than 3 yds away you wonder how they'll score during regular. It is nice to note that PHI is running the ball more. CLE O well lets just call it "work in progress". PHI DL appears to be deep.

fell asleep after halftime of IND @STL game, IND starters look to be in mid season form. They should cover for the first month fairly easily and for the moneyline parlays a must on my ticket.
Its a wonder that STL had trouble w/IND D which had some of their starters out, perhaps a clue for the season w/STL and O, though I must say run O looked very good at times.

updated line:
Game # Team QB exp line pick

281 OAK 8 36.5 O
282 MIN 11 -3 x

Monday, August 07, 2006

results - qb experiment 8/6-14/06

ATS 1-1 ( O/U win, side loss) sure was a lot of blitzing and OAK really wanted to win, compared to PHI

updated odds:

game #TeamQB explinepick
251 CLE 6 33 U
252 PHI 19 -3 X

Sunday, August 06, 2006

an experiment w/qb experience 8/6 - 8/14

During preseason if you blink you may miss the starting QB play, with this in mind I added up the remaining QB's years of experience and made a note for this weeks games. I changed the font to BOLD to reflect if I favor the side or the total. I changed the font to Green to reflect a best bet.

Game # Team QB exp line pick
451 OAK 8 36 U
452 PHI 18 -3 X

251 CLE 6 no line as of 8/5
252 PHI 18

253 IND 9 40.5 O
254 STL 19 -2.5 X

255 NYJ 9 33.5 U
256 TB 21 -3.5 X

257 DEN 5 pk U
258 DET 7 38 X

259 NYG 17 35 X
260 BAL 8 -3 O

261 NE 4 37 X
262 ATL 4 -3 U

263 CHI 12 -2.5 O
264 SF 24 34.5 X

265 PIT 9 36 X
266 ARI 5 -3 U

267 BUF 13 35.5 X
268 CAR 8 -4.5 U

269 JAC 8 34 X
270 MIA 8 -3 U

271 KC 11 -1 X
272 HOU 9 38.5 U

273 NO 23 37 X
274 TEN 3 -1.2 O

275 GB 2 37 X
276 SD 6 -4 U

277 DAL 7 37 X
278 SEA 8 -3 U

279 WAS 14 35.5 O
280 CIN 15 -1 X

281 OAK 8 no line as of 8/5
282 MIN 11

notes: NO, CLE, CIN & GB/SD

veteran QB rotation Brees, Jamie Martin, Todd Bouman
preseason week 1 273 +1 @TEN

starters out: C (season), RT (4-6 weeks), CB (4-6 weeks)

CIN notes:
Projected starter @QB Anthony Wright (Preseason Game 1, 2, 3, 4 and regualar season).
QB Palmer is perhaps @50% after week 1

GB notes:
RB Noah Herron looked much more comfortable w/zone blocking scheme and performed better than RB Gado during intrasquad scrimmage on NFL Network.
FG Kickers sucked, missing ? ? ? ? ? so many tries in a row even alternating kickers.
QB Favre is still the same, very good, will take chances
QB Rodgers looks much more comfortable than last year
QB Wrobel(Winona St) not bad(not a threat to Rodgers), needs more seasoning
Rookie WR Jennings looks ready to start

LB Hawk has great speed and range covering both the right side of the field and impressively coming over to the left again and again during the scrimmage.
I liked LB Hodge as the bookend he's fairly stout and they are deeper and talented at the position this year.
Clayton's observations are much more thorough than mine.

Take this quote on D:
"The Packers have enough athletes on defense that they won't fall into the Cover 2 trend that's taking over the NFC North. Cornerbacks will be playing mainly man-to-man. Linebackers will be aggressive. Defensive linemen will fire up the field. The Packers are carrying over the aggressive Jim Bates defense from a year ago.
"We're using about 95 percent of last season," Barnett said. "It's the defense that allowed Jason Taylor to get all of those sacks [in Miami]. There will be a lot of third-down blitzing."
The addition of Woodson solidifies the Packers' pass coverage for the first time since the team traded Mike McKenzie to the Saints during the 2004 season. Woodson teams up with Al Harris, moving the oft-penalized Ahmad Carroll into the No. 3 cornerback role. " nice....

and this one on O:
"Longtime Packers like McCarthy's fresh approach to the offense. In some ways he's giving Favre a little more freedom than Holmgren and Mike Sherman did. Though the system is still the West Coast offense and McCarthy teaches it in its purest form, McCarthy isn't as rigid with the progression system. He's allowing for more playmaking.
"Now, we are going deep," wide receiver Donald Driver said. "We're airing it out past 20 yards instead of just the short, underneath routes. He's trying to jump on people from the beginning. It's not more one, two, three progressions. Whoever wins against the defensive backs gets the ball."
One of the staples of the Packers' West Coast offense has always been the decoys. In most routes, one receiver would go deep to clear out an area for the intended receiver. With McCarthy, all the receivers are in play."
Keep in mind w/Favre at the wheel this will happen, hopefully Rodgers will rise to the challenge should he be called upon.

I noticed DE KGB speed and the LT was beat, w/Favre he'll see it coming ( he is a lefty right?) but I need to check the other QB's I believe they are righty's and thus the LT position would need to play better.

275 GB +4 travels to SD for 1st preseason game. I like GB's QB rotation. I need to check on who plays after QB Rivers. Note: GB won last year 10-7 1st game preseason w/a team not as good/deep and SD has pretty much the same team w/all starters penciled in and RB Tomilinson does not play.

"Tomlinson almost always sits out exhibition games, so odds are fans won't see him when the Chargers host Green Bay next Saturday and Seattle on Aug. 26." see "Sore Neck? LT practices"