Thursday, November 29, 2012

signs of a .... (fill in the blank) team

Just a great read, Bechta names the good teams, gives a few examples of going nowhere teams and a little more....

Tuesday, November 27, 2012

2012 - week 13 - picks (includes Thursday)

Still waiting on a line for PIT @BAL game, but I don't think the number will make me change my mind

11/29 8:25 PM

301 NO 56 *
302 ATL -3½ under

ATL should get the season split, but I'll take the pts w/Brees & Co.

12/02 1:00 PM
339 SEA 37½ *
340 CHI -4 UNDER

SEA should've won last week SEA on the road has a losing record
CHI is banged up
I think this will be another close 3pt game

12/02 1:00 PM
341 MIN 46½ *
342 GB -9 under

numbers seems really large when you consider GB K has missed nearly half of his FG attempts (last 15) and GB OL has issues

12/02 1:00 PM
343 SF -7 *
344 STL 40 over

It's probably safer to take the pts, but STL has lost last 2 games @home (GB 10pts & NYJ 14pts)

12/02 1:00 PM
345 ARI 36½ UNDER
346 NYJ -4½ *****

could be a laugher...

12/02 1:00 PM
347 CAR -3 **
348 KC 40½ over

KC expected to be w/o S Lewis and ST McCluster

12/02 1:00 PM
349 IND 51 over
350 DET -4½ ***

IND has to prove it can win on the road, I think IND will split vs NFC North and be 2-2
wins vs MIN and GB, loss to CHI

12/02 1:00 PM
351 JAC 44½ **
352 BUF -6 OVER


12/02 1:00 PM
353 NE -7½ *
354 MIA 51 under

NE will most likely sweep MIA, I'm just not sure about the cover

12/02 1:00 PM
355 HOU -5½ OVER
356 TEN 47 *

HOU banged up @LB
TEN new OC Loggains
OC is an unknown quantity, thus a stay away game

12/02 4:05 PM
357 TB 50½ UNDER
358 DEN -7 *

Really tempted to take TB, but last week vs ATL was an emo game

12/02 4:25 PM
360 BAL ***

PIT banged up @OL, RB, D

12/02 4:25 PM
361 CLE 45 UNDER
362 OAK -1 *

CLE QB McCoy expected to start
this game is hard to pick, CLE could win w/just running game, but will they?

12/02 4:25 PM
363 CIN -1½ **
364 SD 46½ UNDER

SD last week was the last hurrah

12/02 8:30 PM
365 PHI 43 UNDER
366 DAL -9 ***

PHI cut starting DE, desperate move AGAIN!

12/03 8:40 PM
367 NYG -2½ OVER
368 WAS 51 *

NYG no pep talk this week
WAS gains the season split

2012 - week 12 - results

All the home teams lost on Thanksgiving, what a bunch of turkeys, lol, really one sided except for DET, who again couldn't help but make mistakes, they should win next week

wow, HOU @DET, a rule I never knew where a penalty will negate the review of a TD. If a play is challenged and cannot be contested, a penalty will be enforced. Enforcing the penalty will supercede the review of a TD and allow the TD to count.

The referees are correct IMO on not whistling the play dead in the 3rd Q where RB Forsett appears to be down on TV review, but during the play itself, the referees did not see his forearm/elbow on the turf. So Forsett scores a TD and normally it would have been reviewed as all TDs are reviewed, but DET HC Schwartz challenges the play with his flag tossing and incurs a penalty (because TDs cannot be challenged and if they are challenged then the challenging team will be penalized). IF he had not thrown the flag, the TD would have been ruled nil and play would have resumed where RB Forsett had gone down w/his forearm/elbow.

here's an official nfl link

notables: HOU D, LB Reed out Q1 due to groin injury, HOU 2ndary is again torched for the 2nd week in a row. DET QB Stafford is just tossing it for grabs to WR Megatron. DET is playing on an emotional high.
HOU D tackling is an issue

WAS is blowing out DAL a the half 28-3, but Joe Buck Jr, believes in DAL w/statements like they're (DAL) within 3scores. LOL game is not even close, only DAL D makes it interesting w/hits on WAS QB Griffen. DAL DE?LB Ware makes a huge hit on WAS QB Griffen

notables: DAL LB Carter out Q4 due to inj (unknown)

I wish the announcers would notice that WR's that are coming out of college spread O are doing well.
WRs that came out of Hawaii when June Jones was coach and now coaching @SMU do well in the nfl.
The same can be said for WR out of Texas Tech when Mike Leach was coach, though we'll need a few years before we'll see a WR from Wash St as he just began coaching there. OK St is also another hot bed where WR's should be looked at closely. These WR route running adjustments to what the D does is what makes the spread O go, maybe we'll see one out of Oregon and their prolific spread. I always say they have to "hands"

PFT quotes Chris Collinsworth with the gem "Sanchez might want to chant for Tebow" after he got sacked yet again, which was probably the best part of the game in a laugher for NE as NYJ and it's own ineptitude won't quiet even their fans

Overall I did ok ATS (2 games were 'push'), not so good on totals (below .500)

Wednesday, November 21, 2012

2012 - week 12 - picks

note: MIN @CHI ATS/Total line is late, will need to update...
11/23 updated #'s
11/25 MIN @CHI significant move from CHI pk to -6/-6½

11/25 1:00 PM
221 OAK 49 UNDER
222 CIN -8 *****

The return of QB Palmer, clear edge w/CIN

11/25 1:00 PM
223 PIT -1 under
224 CLE 34½ *

PIT QB Batch starts
I'm thinking the outright win for CLE

11/25 1:00 PM
225 BUF 51½ *
226 IND -3 OVER

OVER the total seems far more prudent, taking the pts in what should be a close game

11/25 1:00 PM
227 DEN -10½ **
228 KC 44 **UNDER**

DEN w/o RB McGahee
KC fans are angry, KC QB Quinn starts
total seems way too high

I don't think KC will score more than 10pts, if they do, say 14pts or more taking pts would be more prudent. I just think DEN won't score more than 24 pts for this game

HUGE 11.5pt swing since prior2season

11/25 1:00 PM
229 TEN -3 OVER
230 JAC 43½ *

JAC should be UP for this game @home w/div rival sandwich'g games vs AFC East for their last 6 games

11/25 1:00 PM
231 MIN 38½ *
232 CHI -6½\UNDER

CHI run D shredded by SF run O last week
CHI run O nearly missing in action (until Q3) vs SF run D
will MIN duplicate SF effort on the road?
MIN is 0-4 @CHI

One thing of note MIN QB Ponder is nowhere near as athletic as SF QB Kaepernick, but may have the better arm and more time as a starting QB, just his WR's drop the ball too much

CHI QB Cutler starts?

11/25 1:00 PM
233 ATL -1 UNDER
234 TB 49½ *

Both teams were lucky last weekend, ATL was 'luckier' (is that a word?)

11/25 1:00 PM
235 SEA -3 ****
236 MIA 37½ UNDER

for MIA this is the 1st game of a tough stretch, next up NE, then SF

6pt swing since prior2season

11/25 4:05 PM
237 BAL -1½ *
238 SD 47 UNDER


11/25 4:25 PM
239 SF -1½ under
240 NO 49 *

after such a great game by SF O, I expect a letdown

11/25 4:25 PM
241 STL 37½ *
242 ARI -2½ UNDER

The total is easily the better bet, taking STL due to better QB in Bradford than ARI choice of Skelton or

ARI RB Wells returns, does he start?
ARI QB Lindley starts (1st)

11/25 8:30 PM
243 GB 49½ *
244 NYG -2½ over

I want to pick NYG @home, GB OL may have issues w/NYG DL and GB D will be w/o LB Matthews, but NYG QB Manning is not having a good year and GB QB Rodgers is playing really well even w/o all his WR's. If NYG can produce w/run O, then they should win easily, if not taking points seems to be the better move

11/26 8:40 PM
245 CAR -2½ *
246 PHI 41½ UNDER

CAR new K Gano
is PHI done? w/o Vick & McCoy?
I just hope this game is deserving of MNF

9.5pt swing since prior2season

Rookie Review and some thoughts on finishing 8-8 for the season

Kevin Fishbain of PFW writes an excellent review, not too long, not too short, just right in length and content

This is week 12 of NFL season and every team has had their bye week and played 10 games. With 6 games to go, most fans are viewing the playoff picture and the potential for their team, but what about those that are out of the running for the playoffs? How should we view them? In particular for this week is their an angle to be aware of that can produce a winner ATS?

One particular angle that will recur each week is the aim for these teams with losing records to end up 8-8 or .500 for the season.

Out of the running are the 1-9 teams JAC and KC who had their chance last week with JAC putting up a surprising performance nearly getting the upset vs division rival HOU (they appear ready for spoiler role) and KC looks like you could stick a fork in them @home vs CIN.

This week the 2-8 teams to be aware of are CLE and CAR.

CLE put up a game effort @DAL last weekend and this week at home I expect another solid effort vs division rival PIT. This year PIT is nowhere near as dominant as in past years and CLE is playing a solid D with a questionable O (their skill players aren't good enough IMO) as well as HC play calling/game mgmt "curious".  I'll take the pts @home with CLE, it just doesn't seem smart to take PIT on the road against a division rival.

CAR is @PHI and though they played well for most of the game last week @home vs division rival TB, they again had curious game management or play calling late in the game and lost their game. Their opponent this week PHI is on such a downhill roll, that I don't expect them to stop combine that with the appearance on MNF for CAR and it's hard to side with PHI (note: if PHI loses this week, they'll be 3-8 and back here in my thoughts of teams trying to finish 8-8, if CLE wins they also will be in the race to .500)

On a similar note with PHI 3-7 record are OAK and STL. OAK goes to CIN and STL goes to ARI. Just looking at QB's I'd think CIN D is ready for OAK QB Palmer due to familiarity, so CIN has an edge.
ARI rookie QB Lindley will be making his first start and due to ARI history with developing young QBs, I can only look at STL for this game.

4-6 teams this week have a chance to make playoffs so I won't be looking at them in the same light as the non-playoff teams.

Tuesday, November 20, 2012

2012 - week 12 Thursday picks

hmmm... can't blog all games due to no numbers for four games - PIT @CLE, MIN @CHI, SF @NO, CAR @PHI
ok so .... guessing...
PIT will start QB Batch, PIT -2.5
MIN will still be w/o WR Harvin and CHI will start QB Campbell (I think), CHI -2.5
SF will start QB Kaepernick, SF -2.5
PHI will be w/o RB McCoy and QB Vick, CAR -2.5

11/22 12:30 PM

103 HOU -3 *
104 DET 50½ under

HOU safeties & CB coverage were exposed by JAC, which is the strength of DET O, just DET D will have a tough time vs HOU O multi prong attack

DYK? since 2004, DET 0-8 SU on Thanksgiving see:

DET benches WR Young, Is HC trying to regain control of locker room?
I'm just thinking, with such a great effort put forth by both HOU & DET in Sunday's game that this will be a "turkey" game

11/22 4:15 PM
105 WAS 48 *
106 DAL -3½ over

DAL needs to stick to short game to win, but I don't think they will
DAL tends to win on Thursdays w/o only 2 losses, since '05
I know I'm going against DAL trend, but this will be the first time for DAL to see WAS QB RGIII. I'm thinking RGIII will come out hot in first half and this time DAL won't be able to recover in 2nd half (as it did vs CLE) and win game. This should be the tightest game with DAL curious play calling and inability to adjust on the fly, instead of always seemingly to wait until the half or even into 3rd Q to go to shorter, quicker throws and screens.

11/22 8:20 PM
107 NE -6½ *
108 NYJ 48½ under

NYJ beat STL last week due to familiarity w/STL OC who was their OC. Sure NYJ is familiar w/NE as well, the difference appears to be NE even w/o TE Gronk should handle their nemesis due to their current level of play, which is so much above NYJ.
In order for NYJ to win, they will need to play keep away, but they don't have a solid running game. NEs run D this year is better and their recent addition of CB Aqib Talib makes their pass D even better. This could be a 35 - 3 game, yes a laugher.

2012 - week 11 - results

UPSETS in the making....

CLE @DAL, - a tale of two halves, CLE dominates w/RUN O and PASS D in 1st half, DAL changes gear in 2nd half going to short game, 'til they get the lead in Q4. CLE fails to score on 4th & Goal and DAL w/ball chooses to run ball thrice seemingly middle of the line plays and is stonewalled by CLE RUN D, with ensuing DAL punt you could guess that CLE will score as DAL shanks punt and ST penalty places CLE within red zone. CLE scores TD, DAL trys to score TD with DAL just has too much conservative play calling and it really shows in the last 3 min or so
Another odd thing was the play clock was inoperable around Q4 10:35 left in the game
Game goes to OT and DAL wins w/a FG

JAC @HOU, - JAC subs QB Henne in Q1 (Gabbert inj) and what a spark, JAC grabs lead and HOU has to continually comeback and tie game. Game goes to OT, both teams score a FG, HOU holds off JAC w/TD

TB @CAR, CAR D scores a TD via interception return, and seemingly controls the game into Q4, TB scores TD w/
ARI @ATL, - ATL QB Ryan throws 5 ints & 0 TDs, ARI benches QB Skelton for rookie QB Lindley (curious move - if you're not seeing your starter in a favorable light, why not give the rookie all the snaps during your bye week and let him start?). ATL scores in Q4 to break tie and get win. ATL lucky, very fortunate

NYJ @STL, - NYJ getting the upset and overcoming the season's turmoil for a win on the road.

Games with large point movements - results

WAS dominates
TB proves grit with late Q4 TD to tie and OT TD to win
NYJ has awakened? with road upset @STL
CIN allows the early KC score and dominates the rest of the way
BAL gets the win, withstanding early PIT TD who sputters after that... (BAL did not cover 3.5pt spread)

Favorites 4-1 SU  3-2 ATS

Wednesday, November 14, 2012

week 11 games with large point movement

Since lines are posted prior to the season starting I have begun to track "before start of season" ATS numbers and current ATS numbers

This week games where ATS line has moved 6pts or more :

PHI @ WAS, was PHI -3.5, now WAS -3.5

TB @CAR, was CAR -6, now TB -3.5

NYJ @STL, was NYJ -3, now STL -3

CIN @KC, was KC -2.5, now CIN -3.5

BAL @PIT, was PIT -3, now BAL -3.5

Of all the games for this weekend, where there has been at least a 6pt swing, there should be an upset.
I list the games that I believe an upset will occur.

I wouldn't be surprised if PIT as a home dog wins outright and upsets BAL. I expect PIT to return to the run game and BAL is coming off a high from a high scoring game. BAL should have a return to normalcy and this year their normal appears to be a D that is on the downslope and an O that chooses at times to not run the ball, when they should be running the ball

KC @home is another game that has a high chance of an upset occuring. I know, I know, CIN has played well (last week) and KC has TO issues. I'm just not sold on CIN away from home and solving TO's are correctable. KC has also played well vs AFC North brethren BAL and PIT. Maybe KC just stays within -3.5 number, maybe they get the outright win

I have a harder time believing in NYJ causing an upset, due to STL coaching which is far superior to NYJ

again the coaching/staffing issue is also occuring with CAR and TB going in opposite directions

and as well with PHI and WAS

note: last week (week 10) their were three games and there was an upset of ATL @NO (8pt movement). The other two games IND @JAC (6.5pt movement) and SD @TB (6pt movement) were covers by the favorite.

prior weeks 6 thru 9 = none (and I didn't track wks 1-5).

2012 - week 11 - picks (includes Thursday)

11/15 8:25 PM

305 MIA 45½ UNDER
306 BUF -1½ *

MIA D appears to be injured, but not listed on injury reports. For example I recall watchin' NT Soliai come out of a game a couple weeks ago (or was it more?). Perhaps there's more under reporting of inj's by MIA
BUF has a number of inj's but has played much better on O the past 2 games. Changing directions? BUF appears to be going UP and MIA DOWN

mid 30's, near freezing temperatures

11/18 1:00 PM
411 PHI 43½ OVER
412 WAS -3½ ***

PHI QB Foles(rookie) to start
Rookie QBs to start against weak D's, we should see more scoring, edge goes to home team

11/18 1:00 PM
413 GB -3½ *
414 DET 51½ over?

GB should be way UP for this game, considering game @ DET last year (Thanksgiving w/DET DT Suh foot stomp on leg of GB OL Dietrich-Smith)
DET appears to have shored up 2ndary w/pick up of CB Lee and activation of CB Florence

11/18 1:00 PM
415 ARI 44 *
416 ATL -10 UNDER

I don't think ARI will win due to inj's on D, but ATL win by 10pts? ATL seems to play tight games at home

11/18 1:00 PM
417 TB -1½ ***
418 CAR 48½ UNDER

CAR ST coach FIRED, desperate move/change

11/18 1:00 PM
419 CLE 43½ UNDER
420 DAL -7½ *

MUST WIN for DAL to stay in playoff contention I'm not sure giving up the 1/2 pt is a smart thing

11/18 1:00 PM
421 NYJ 38½ UNDER
422 STL -3 ***

NYJ O would need significant improvement to win
STL plays inspired, NYJ could put you to sleep

NYJ 0-2 vs NFC West, scoring 7 allowing 62
STL 0-2 vs AFC East, scoring 21 allowing 62

NYJ p/u of RB Kahlil Bell, how much will he play?

11/18 4:25 PM
423 IND 53½ *
424 NE -9½ over

NE maybe taking IND lightly with NYJ up on deck for next week

11/18 1:00 PM
425 JAC 40½ UNDER
426 HOU -15½ *

HOU @home has won by 20,24,30,12 and lost by 18 (GB) it's either win big or lose big

11/18 1:00 PM
427 CIN -3½ under
428 KC 43½ *

KC has lost 6 straight, but has played AFC North opponents well, losing by 3pts to PIT and BAL, just a hunch, but this maybe the upset KC needs - its the desperate win

11/18 4:05 PM
429 NO -4½ *
430 OAK 54½ OVER

Really thought of taking OAK, but their D is stinkin' up the joint ....

11/18 4:25 PM
431 SD 48½ UNDER
432 DEN -7½ ***

One team is on the UP swing, the other ... trying not to roll down hill to fast

11/18 8:30 PM
433 BAL -3½ over?
434 PIT 41 *

PIT QB Leftwich starts
Taking the dog... I'm thinking PIT will run more and BAL D will suffer. PIT D has learned to win w/o Polamalu

11/19 8:40 PM
435 CHI 39 Under
436 SF -4½ *

CHI QB Campbell to start
SF QB Kaepernick to start

NO TEAM Going into bye week

Tuesday, November 13, 2012

2012 - week 10 - results

TEN came out swinging after owner Adams public declaration that his team stunk

NYG still seems to be in a funk

MIN is the biggest surprise for me, without WR Harvin, I'd thought they be junk

NO brings ATL to earth

what's wrong with the ref's in the STL @SF game??

HOU played really disciplined in sloppy conditions of soldier field, that constant rain, wet, slippery condition, I gave CHI the edge, BUT I was proven wrong by a team with a lot of focus

What do starting QB's from PHI, SF and CHI have in common? They all have concussions from their weekends game and their team did not win, though SF did tie their game.

Broke even on totals, under .500 for sides....  did you notice not a single double digit spread covered? NE, SF and PIT all at home with a division rival or desperate team that played a tight game

Thursday, November 08, 2012 Team Game Finder

You just gotta love the enhancements they keep adding to their site. In particular has an added feature of 'Vegas "favored by", "underdog by" and "over/under" which can be found within the Additional Criteria drop down menu.

The Additional Criteria has so many options, if you have an inkling of an idea or thought that has perculated over the seasons. Try it out and you may prove your instinct to be correct. I also love the Game Time selection, which really helps define traveling teams winning records from west coast to east coast as a definite trend, but not so much going in the opposite direction.

They've also added Field type and Stadium type as well, maybe they'll do something for the weather....

Wednesday, November 07, 2012

2012 - week 10 - picks (includes Thursday)

11/08 8:25 PM

105 IND -3½ *
106 JAC 42½ OVER

IND needs to win this game, next wk is NE
JAC couldn't stop DET pass attack, how will they stop IND? IND gains the series split

11/11 1:00 PM
215 BUF 52½ UNDER
216 NE -11 *

I normally go for the season split, this game is at NE, 1st game was @BUF who couldn't play the 2nd half so even with a lot of pts, I just can't take BUF

11/11 1:00 PM
217 NYG -4 *
218 CIN 48½ UNDER

just thinking CIN can't cover against small numbers, I'd need at least +7.5 and NYG on the road tend to be under games this year

11/11 1:00 PM
219 SD 47½ ***OVER***
220 TB -3 *

TB on a high, not sure about taking them, but WR Vincent Jackson may be really motivated since his
prior team SD chose not to extend his contract
SD is 0-2 vs NFC South

11/11 1:00 PM
221 DEN -4 *
222 CAR 47½ under

DEN is 1-1 vs NFC South, lost to ATL, won vs NO, CAR is nowhere near either of their division rivals
CAR has played better the past two games which coincides with the firing of GM

11/11 1:00 PM
223 TEN 44½ UNDER
224 MIA -6 *

TEN Owner Bud Adams angrily puts everyone on notice after last week 20-51 loss to CHI @home "we were grossly out-coached and out-played from start to finish today"
Not a good spot for MIA, with a motivated TEN, but I'm still hesitant with +6
MIA should win SU, TEN just got by BUF for their only road win
update 11/7: TEN QB Locker to start, I still wouldn't expect them to win, he just needs more 'seasoning'

11/11 1:00 PM
225 OAK 46 under
226 BAL -7½ *

OAK so who will be RB? doesn't matter OAK isn't good on east coast see

11/11 1:00 PM
227 ATL -2½ *
228 NO 53½ OVER

NO D is the key, if they do well they win, if not they lose, I just don't think they'll do well

11/11 1:00 PM
229 DET -2½ ***
230 MIN 47 over

MIN is a one trick pony w/o WR Harvin, here we go with the series split

11/11 4:05 PM
231 NYJ 38½ UNDER
232 SEA -6½ *

what can I say? NYJ falling, SEA rising

11/11 4:25 PM
233 DAL -1 *
234 PHI 44½ under

should be a slug fest of mistakes, taking pts seems prudent, hmmmm lined moved 3pts to DAL (was +2), guess I'll give up pts
update 11/7: PHI RT IR OFY, I expect Mr 'O'lay himself to start so w/Bell starting DAL DE/LB should be able to tie up Vick & Co

11/11 4:25 PM
235 STL 38½ under
236 SF -11½ *

one sided

11/11 8:30 PM
237 HOU 41½ OVER
238 CHI -1½ *

HOU is 0-1 vs NFC North lost by 18
CHI is 3-0 vs AFC South, having won by 20,38 & 31 pts
Their are reports CHI CB Tillman maybe out of game due to expected birth of child. HOU could win this game. CHI coming off blow out win @TEN
update 11/7: HOU NT Cody inj'd ribs, punctured lung, I wouldn't expect him to play

11/12 8:40 PM
239 KC 42½ under
240 PIT -12½ *

so one sided, normally wouldn't expect PIT to be UP for this game, but it is MNF and they didn't start off well vs NYG last week. I think they'll take this out of the refs hands and pad their numbers with the TO prone Chiefs

Tuesday, November 06, 2012

GRID - Week - 09

I wanted to rank the teams, sort of like a power ranking, but in the end I came out with a grid of the teams playing at about or around the same level.

This makes more sense to me as I have a three tiers or levels in my grid.

1st tier/level = teams ranked 1 - 11
2nd tier/level = teams ranked 12 - 22
3rd tier/level = teams ranked 23 - 32

I've been playing with this for a couple of years and decided to share this year. This year I grouped so that their is only one team on the bottom. A year or two ago it seemed more appropriate to have more on the bottom, so I adjusted the rankings.
I hesitated placing SEA in the top 11, but until NO plays more consistently or MIA or TB pick up more big wins I'll keep them in the middle of the pack. 

We'll see if I continue to blog the "GRID"

2012 - week 09 - results

Barely broke even ATS, and dropped below .500 for totals, funny how a lot of fav's covered this weekend

UPSETS (maybe the aftermath of Super Storm Sandy played a hand in taking the players & staff minds/concentration off of the weekends game)

CAR beating WAS after WAS HC Shanahan says prior to game it's a "must win", guess he was desparate and knew his team would have a tough time. I think they didn't start their normal work week until Wednesday.

PIT beat NYG, NYG really had a couple of gifts from the referees early in their game, but it wasn't enough as PIT D contained NYG O, and PIT O handled NYG D fairly well. PIT RB/PR Rainey really looked good, too bad he got injured.

TB upset of OAK was really surprising with their All-Pro Guard Nicks out for the season, gotta like that OL for TB or is OAK DL getting old? TB RB Martin really looks to be in a groove.

IND win over MIA may be costly, though both sides had players leave the game, MIA had more players come back, while IND have a few who are at the least questionable for the week. IND D stepped up with the return of Mathis & Moala

Teams Going into Bye 1-3 ATS/SU (GB - ARI, CLE, WAS)
Teams Coming off Bye 2-2 ATS/SU (BAL, HOU - BUF, CIN)

Thursday, November 01, 2012

2012 - week 09 - picks

11/04 1:00 PM
415 DEN -3½ *
416 CIN 47½ under

DEN should win by a TD or more
last game of 2nd quarter for the season for both teams

11/04 1:00 PM
417 ARI 43½ *
418 GB -11 UNDER

If GB WR's are still out taking pts seems prudent
start of the 2nd half of season for both teams

11/04 1:00 PM
419 MIA -2½ ***
420 IND 43½ UNDER

MIA is playing tough
IND w/o starting TE & CB
last game of 2nd quarter for the season for both teams

11/04 1:00 PM
421 BAL -3½ *
422 CLE 42½ UNDER

BAL is alot tougher than SD last week, CLE got their upset last week, not this week
last game of 2nd quarter for the season for both teams

11/04 1:00 PM
423 BUF 47½ OVER
424 HOU -10 *

HOU won't view BUF as a real rival
which combo? FO? FU? DU? DO?
last game of 2nd quarter for the season for both teams

11/04 1:00 PM
425 CAR 46½ over
426 WAS -3½ *

WAS HC says 'must win'
'shortened' week for both teams due to Hurricane Sandy
CAR last game of 2nd quarter for the season
WAS start of 2nd half of season

11/04 1:00 PM
427 DET -3½ *
428 JAC 44 UNDER

giving up pts, just don't see how JAC D will contain megatron
last game of 2nd quarter for the season for both teams
noteworthy? 10/30 JAC trades WR to DET for draft pick

11/04 1:00 PM
429 CHI -3½ ***
430 TEN 43½ over

CHI last game of 2nd quarter for the season
TEN start of 2nd half of season
TEN w/o LT Roos,
IND O beat TEN D and IND D contained TEN O, CHI O & D much better than IND

11/04 4:05 PM
431 MIN 39½ under
432 SEA -4½ **

start of 2nd half of season for both teams

11/04 4:05 PM
433 TB 45½ OVER
434 OAK -1½ *

TB w/o G Nicks (10/30 IR)
I've noticed that FF pundits are predicting TB WR Jackson will do well vs OAK D, due to past
performances. But I don't think so..
1) OAK D is not a man-to-man D
2) TB O is a run first O
3) TB all-Pro Guard Nicks is out and HC Schiano is stubborn and will stick to a run O

last game of 2nd quarter for the season for both teams

11/04 4:25 PM
435 PIT 47½ UNDER
436 NYG -3 *

PIT last game of 2nd quarter for the season
NYG start of 2nd half of season
PIT w/o hotel, must travel Sunday due to Hurricane Sandy, breaks up the normal travel routine

11/04 8:30 PM
437 DAL 47½ *
438 ATL -4½ OVER

last game of 2nd quarter for the season for both teams
ATL w/o LB Weatherspoon

11/05 8:40 PM
439 PHI 52½ over
440 NO -3½ *

last game of 2nd quarter for the season for both teams

2012 - week 09 - Thursday pick

11/01 8:25 PM

301 KC 42½ *
302 SD -8 UNDER

I always consider the season split for division games as this tend to happen quite frequently, but in this case we're looking at a season sweep

KC should have a better game, unless they commit another 5TOs..

taking pts, should be a 3pt game

last game of 2nd quarter for the season, both teams on losing streaks, who wants it more?