2017 - OT shortened to 10 minutes - an angle to bet on? or bet against?

I read this: http://www.footballzebras.com/2017/05/23/owners-approve-shortened-overtime-dont-know/

and noted the article stated that if this had been implemented last season, then there would be 3 additional games ending up as tied.

I recall ARI HC Arians stating that after their 6-6 OT game w/SEA, their team did not have a normal week for the next game. I believe he stated they only had a walk thru instead of the normal practice.

This opens up a betting opportunity - betting against teams the following week after participating in OT game that went the full length of OT. Even though OT has been shortened from 15 min to 10 min, the way it affects team preparation for the following game appears to be a situation that's hard to ignore.

It is a small sample size to review from last year and their aren't many OT games during the season.
How it affects teams performance in the following game needs to be reviewed in more detail.

2016 season, OT game, following week SU results:
week 1 SD @KC 27-33, week 2 JAC @SD 14-38, KC @HOU 12-19 (W, L) [sd l,w] [kc w,l]
week 3 CLE @MIA 24-30, week 4 CLE @WAS 20-31, MIA @CIN 7-22 (L, L)[cle l,l][mia w,l]
week 6 IND @HOU 23-26, week 7 IND @TEN 34-26, HOU @DEN 9-27 (W, L)[ind l,w][hou w,l]
week 7 SD @ATL 33-30, week 8 SD @DEN 19-27, GB @ATL 32-33 (L, W)[sd w,l][ atl l,w]
week 7 SEA @ARI 6-6, week 8 SEA @NO 20-25, ARI @CAR 20-30 (L, L)[sea t,l][ari t,l]
week 8 WAS @CIN 27-27, week 9 bye, bye
week 8 OAK @TB 30-24, week 9 DEN @OAK 20-30, ATL @TB 43-28 (W, L)[oak w,w][tb l,l]
week 8 PHI @DAL 23-29, week 9 PHI @NYG 23-28, DAL @CLE 35-10 (L, W)[phi l,l][dal w,w]
week 9 DET @MIN 22-16, week 10 bye, MIN @WAS 20-26 (bye, L)[det w,bye][min l,l]
week 12 KC @DEN 30-27, week 13 KC @ATL 29-28, DEN @JAC 20-10 (W, W)[kc w,w][den l,w]
week 14 NYJ @SF 23-17, week 15 MIA @NYJ 34-13, SF @ATL 13-41 (L, L)[nyj w,l][sf l,l]
week 16 MIA @BUF 34-31, week 17 NE @MIA 35-14, BUF @NYJ 10-30 (L, L)[mia w,l][buf l,l]
week 17 CLE @PIT 21-27, week 18 playoffs - CLE out, MIA @PIT 12-30 (DNP, W)[cle l,dnp][pit w,w]

interestingly enough;
prior to week 8 team that loses OT wins following game (except for CLE)
prior to week 8 team that wins OT loses following game

after week 8  team that loses OT loses following game (except den vs atl close game, cle dnp)
after week 8  team that wins OT wins following game (except DET bye, nyj vs div, mia vs div)

so it appears:
prior to mid season, bet against winner of OT the following week
prior to mid season, bet on loser of OT the following week (w/reservation to not bet)

after mid-season, bet against loser of OT (w/reservation to not bet)
after mid-season, bet on winner of OT, the following week (w/a lot of reservation to not bet)

2016 - week 21 (aka Play offs week 4) - results

So an OT win for NE vs ATL at SB LI with an ending score of 34-28. I wasn't too far off with my thoughts of a 35-30 game. The favorite/over combo won the money. My instincts are thinking the sports books got hit hard.

What a game, things were really looking bleak for NE with ATL up 28-3 in Q3 and I also thought the game was over as well, but I wonder if game management by ATL could have been better, when they had field position and could have score a FG, but Brady, Belichick and their Defense woke up after that doink (the missed PAT) and now we have a very memorable Super Bowl LI...

2016 - week 20 (aka Play offs week 3) - results

just sucked ..... 0-2 ATS 1-1 totals, fav/over won for each game


the 2nd game PIT @NE was going at an under pace, until end of 1st half, from then on it was an over game....

2016 - week 19 (aka Play offs week 2) - results

The late change of game time for PIT @KC due to an expected ice storm, may or may not have affected the game, but it did affect my thinking. It left me frozen I did not change my picks, I would have at least changed the total to under, but I doubt I would have changed to PIT -1

as for this weeks results (much better, odd how fav's won on saturday, and dogs won on sunday):
ATS: 3-1
Totals: 2-2


Saturday games were snoozers and Sundays games were much more exciting... on to next week

2016 - week 18 (aka Play offs week 1) - results

I can't believe it, but I guess it was time for this to happen...

ALL the home favorites won ATS(Against The Spread) and SU (Straight Up)

1st and 4th games went Over the total, with 2nd and 3rd games ending Under the total

I ended up 2-2 ATS and 0-4 for Totals.... just awful... sigh..

oh well, on to next week...

2016 - week 17 - results

An unusual season, but one I ended on the UP swing, which is nice.
No teams looks truly dominant, with all playoff bound teams having an Achilles heel (or two).
I'll remember this season for the white hats calling less penalties and there were far more sweeps of division series than I can recall.

SF will need to find a new direction as this franchise is in disarray. It was a waste of a season for former head coach Chip Kelly. Perhaps he'll find a position w/NE, just my guess as he and HC Belichick are good friends.


Week 17 results:
ATS : 10-6
Totals: 8-8



for the regular season:
ATS : 132-117-6
Totals: 130-119-6

2016 - week 16 - results

not a good week... a sub .500 weekend..

week 16 results:
ATS: 7-9
Totals: 6-9-1


and what are the chances of having identical ATS and Totals records???

for the season:
ATS: 122-111-6
Totals:  122-111-6

2016 - week 15 - results

A really nice weekend ATS, but not nice at all for Totals.
(note: if I had not changed my pick for GB @CHI, I'd have a better record, then again if I had left my pick for JAC @HOU alone I would have had a worse record..

week 15 results:
ATS: 12-3-1
Totals: 6-8-2


for the season:
ATS: 115-102-6
Totals: 116-102-5

2016 - week 14 - results

just above .500 ATS and above .666 for totals for this week

notes (highly unusual, its normally the opposite):
division sweeps = 5
(KC swept OAK, WAS swept PHI, CIN swept CLE, HOU swept IND, NYG swept DAL)
division splits = 1
(DET splits w/CHI)

week 14 results:
ATS: 9-7
Totals: 11-5


for the season results:
ATS: 103-99-5
Totals: 110-94-3

2016 - week 13 - results

OUCH, week 13, awful ATS... and pretty good for totals...


week 13 results:
ATS: 5-10
Totals: 10-5


for the season:
ATS: 94-92-5
Totals: 99-89-3

2016 - week 12 - results

oddity? the last 7 games of the week were won by the 'dogs, the first 9 games were 7-1-1 (fav-dog-push)


week 12 results:
ok - ATS: 8-7-1
awful - Totals: 5-11


for the season:
ATS: 89-82-5
Totals: 89-84-3

2016 - week 11 - results

This week - just above .500 ATS and for Totals as well


week 11 results:
ATS: 8-6
Totals: 8-6

for the season:
ATS: 81-75-4
Totals: 84-73-3

2016 - week 10 - results

Just a little better than last week....


week 10:
ATS: 8-6
Totals: 10-4


for the season:
ATS: 73-70-4
Totals: 76-68-3

2016 - week 09 - results

not the greatest results for a weekend, but season totals have risen above .500

week 9 results:
ATS:  8-4-1
Totals: 6-7

for the season results:
ATS: 65-64-4
Totals: 66-64-3

2016 - week 8 - results

another decent week...

week 8 results:
ATS 8-4-1
Totals: 7-6

for the season:
ATS: 57-60-3
Totals: 60-57-3

2016 - week 7 - results

My best week so far this season, both totals and ATS above .500
season totals is back above .500


week 7 results:
ATS: 8-7
Totals: 11-3-1


for the season:
ATS: 49-56-2
Totals: 53-51-3

2016 - week 6 - results

this week much better ATS, and just the opposite result for totals...


week 6 results:
ATS: 9-5-1
results: 5-10

for the season:
ATS: 41-49-2
results: 42-48-2


notable:
TEN, DET and SEA won SU but lost ATS
HOU won SU and got a PUSH ATS

2016 - week 5 - results

better than last week for sides not good at all for totals...

week 5 results:
ATS: 7-6-1
Totals: 4-10


for the season:
ATS: 32-44-1
Totals: 37-38-2

2016 - week 4 - results

ohhh, ouch crappy results....

week 4 results:
ATS: 5-10
Totals: 7-8


for the season:
ATS: 25-38
Totals: 33-28-2

2016 - week 3 - results

the 'dog won 11 of 16 games, among the notables, BUF gets home UPSET vs ARI, PHI gets home UPSET vs PIT, MIN get ROAD UPSET @CAR and 'lowly' LA (w/the help of an hour long rain delay) triumph on the road @TB.

week 3 results:
ATS: 7-9
Totals: 11-5

for the season:
ATS: 20-28
Totals: 26-20-2