2016 - week 19 (aka Play offs week 2) - results

The late change of game time for PIT @KC due to an expected ice storm, may or may not have affected the game, but it did affect my thinking. It left me frozen I did not change my picks, I would have at least changed the total to under, but I doubt I would have changed to PIT -1

as for this weeks results (much better, odd how fav's won on saturday, and dogs won on sunday):
ATS: 3-1
Totals: 2-2


Saturday games were snoozers and Sundays games were much more exciting... on to next week

2016 - week 19 (aka Play offs week 2) - picks

well here goes nothing...

01/14 4:35 PM
301 SEA 51½ *over*
302 ATL -4½ *

SEA doesn't do well on the road...
29-20?


01/14 8:15 PM
303 HOU 45 under
304 NE -16 *

tempted to take pts, but this will be disciple against master... lol
27-6?


01/15 1:05 PM
305 PIT -1 over
306 KC 46½ *

noted: PIT QB Roethlisberger wearing ankle boot after PO week 1 game
30-24?


01/15 4:40 PM
307 GB 51½ *
308 DAL -4 over

We're seeing a performance for the ages w/GB QB Rogers
31-27?

2015 - week 19 - results

KC @NE - 1st half, KC scored FGs, NE scored TDs. With a comfortable lead NE moves on to the playoffs in the 2nd half

GB @ARI - GB with a Hail Mary TD ties the game at the end of regulation, but in OT ARI wins the game with stellar play from their WR Fitzgerald

SEA @CAR - CAR had a 31-0 lead at the end of the first half and holds on for a 31-24 win

PIT @DEN - PIT scores the first TD and had the lead in Q4, but an ill timed fumble leads to DEN TD and the win for the Broncos

As for my picks - ok ATS, but not good enough for totals. Surprisingly (to me) both the NE and CAR game were "over" games, as well as the GB @ARI game "under" the total.
It was a homer weekend SU, but ATS was 2-1-1

2015 - week 19 - results

2015 - week 19 - picks

I've been waiting on numbers for PIT @DEN and finally someone has the cajones to post numbers.
CG Technology (which is at the M Resort and somewhere else here in 'vegas [it just escapes me atm]) is ahead of the pack. Everyone else will soon follow...

Last week:
All road teams won SU (#5,#6 seeds), but not ATS.
(only KC and GB covered, PIT and SEA did not cover)


01/16 4:35 PM
301 KC 42 *
302 NE -5 under

KC WR Maclin starts?

KC opponent W-L record 127-129
NE opponent W-L record 121-135

common opponent PIT (NE PEER)
KC won vs PIT 23-13 wk7
NE won vs PIT 28-21 wk1

common opponent DEN (NE PEER)
KC loss vs DEN 24-31 wk2
KC won @DEN 29-13 wk10
NE loss @DEN 24-30 wk12

common opponent BUF (BUF PEER)
KC won vs BUF 30-22 wk12
NE won @BUF 40-32 wk2
NE won vs BUF 20-13 wk11

common opponent HOU (BUF PEER)
KC won @HOU 27-20 wk1
NE won @HOU 27-6 wk14

WH records
FAV SU 12-3 
O/U 7-8
F/D 8-6-1
R/H 7-7-1
streak 3G-under



01/16 8:15 PM
303 GB 50 *
304 ARI -7 over

GB opponent W-L record 136-120
ARI opponent W-L record 122-134

ARI won vs GB 38-8 wk15 

common opponent SEA
GB won vs SEA 27-17 wk2
ARI won @SEA 39-32 wk10
ARI loss vs 6-36 SEA wk17

common opponent STL
GB won vs STL 24-10 wk5
ARI loss vs STL 22-24 wk4
ARI won @STL 27-3 wk13

common opponent SF
GB won @SF 17-3 wk4
ARI won vs SF 47-7 wk3
ARI won @SF 19-13 wk12

common opponent MIN
GB won @MIN 30-13 wk11
GB loss vs MIN 13-20 wk17
ARI won vs MIN 23-20 wk14

common opponent CHI
GB won @CHI 31-23 wk1
GB loss vs CHI 13-17 wk12
ARI won @CHI 48-23 wk2

common opponent DET
GB loss vs DET 16-18 wk10
GB won @DET 27-23 wk13
ARI won @DET 42-17 wk5

WH records
FAV SU 8-7 
O/U 8-6-1
F/D 8-7
R/H 8-7
streak 3G-home



01/17 1:05 PM
305 SEA 44 under
306 CAR -2½ *

SEA opponent W-L record 133-123
CAR opponent W-L record 113-143

CAR won @SEA 27-23 wk6

common opponent GB (CAR peer)
SEA loss @GB 17-27 wk2
CAR won vs GB 37-29 wk9

common opponent DAL (DAL peer)
SEA won @DAL 13-12 wk8
CAR won @DAL 33-14 wk12

WH records
FAV SU 10-5
O/U 7-8
F/D 7-8
R/H 7-8
streak 5G-FAV SU







01/17 4:40 PM
307 PIT 39½ under
308 DEN -7 *

PIT QB Roethlisberger starts?
PIT WR A Brown starts?
DEN QB Manning starts

PIT O vs DEN D
strength vs strength?

PIT opponent W-L record 129-127
DEN opponent W-L record 128-128

DEN loss @PIT 27-34 wk15


common opponent NE (both PIT and DEN PEER)
PIT loss @NE 21-28 wk1
DEN won vs NE 30-24 wk12

common opponent IND (both PIT and DEN PEER)
PIT won vs IND 45-10 wk13
DEN loss @IND 24-27 wk9

common opponent CIN
PIT loss vs CIN 10-16 wk8
PIT won @CIN 33-20 wk14
DEN won vs CIN 27-20 wk16

common opponent BAL
PIT loss vs BAL 20-23 wk4
PIT loss @BAL 17-20 wk16
DEN won vs BAL 19-13 wk1

common opponent CLE
PIT won vs CLE 30-9 wk10
PIT won @CLE 28-12 wk17
DEN won @CLE 26-23 wk6

common opponent KC
PIT loss @KC 13-23 wk7
DEN won @KC 31-24 wk2
DEN loss vs KC 13-29 wk10

common opponent OAK
PIT won vs OAK 38-35 wk9
DEN won @OAK 16-10 wk5
DEN loss vsOAK 12-15 wk14

common opponent SD
PIT won @SD 24-20 wk5
DEN won @SD 17-3 wk13
DEN won vs SD 27-20 wk17

WH records
FAV SU 9-6
O/U 8-6-1
F/D 8-7
R/H 6-9
streak 3G-FAV SU and home

2014 - week 19 results

a lot better this week with picks (compared to last week). I ended up 2-2 ATS and for totals as well
So far home teams winning 3-1 SU, 2-2 ATS
CAR @SEA ended with up with a much higher total than expected due to SEA scoring on TO. And setting their Offense with a short field to score.
BAL and DAL, played well, but not good enough to win.
IND has 'arrived', they appear ready for NE

2014 - week 19 - playoffs week 2 - picks

so I hope this week will be better...

01/10 4:35 PM
111 BAL 49 OVER
112 NE -7 *

what PIT wouldn't do (just pass)
NE will do (NE in prior games vs BAL)



01/10 8:15 PM
113 CAR 40½ ***UNDER***
114 SEA -11 *

Just hard to see CAR getting any control in this game



01/11 1:05 PM
117 DAL 53 *UNDER*
118 GB -6½ *

should I take pts? DAL is good on the road



01/11 4:40 PM
119 IND 53½ *
120 DEN -7 *OVER*

Is this the 'young team' vs the 'old team'?

2013 - week 19 - results

NO @SEA, FOX, SEA D goose eggs NO for 3 quarters, then let NO back into the game to make it a bit interesting in Q4, but not really SEA wins 23-15 SU, but does not cover ATS.


IND @NE, CBS, another wet game w/rain. NE run O is dominating, Q2 the game seems to be getting boring w/NE up 21-10 and their ST center has a really high snap, causing their punter to chase ball and he ends up fumbling the ball out of the end zone for a safety. NE D safety and CB interfere with each other interception of QB Luck, IND really lucky. Last 2 min and NE D isn't getting to IND QB Luck, but the ball bounces off their FB (ball appears to behind target) and NE D gets another interception. It's NE QB Brady's turn with 74 seconds to score before the end of half, but NE ends up punting and IND O gets the ball back with 37 sec left. So why run the ball on 1st down w/IND? Really odd since they also used a TO earlier to save time for IND O. At the half NE 21-12. Q3 and IND out scores NE 10-8, so at the end of Q3 NE leads 29-22. NE owns Q4 and wins going away 43-22 on two rushing TDs and w/more IND ints(2) this game is done.
NE CB Dennard starts and ends the game with interceptions.

SF @CAR, FOX, game pretty much goes as expected, CAR does get a nice TD (Q2 scoring for CAR), but for the most part SF D stifles CAR O (goose eggs CAR O Q1, Q3, Q4) and CAR D needs to stop the run better as well as pass. CAR ST played much better than SF ST. SF one glaring weakness. One other note CAR OC should be placed on the carpet for play calling when inside the 5yd line twice and no score.


SD @DEN, CBS, DEN D is playing inspired, it's really interesting CB Bailey is finally playing but is taking on the slot WR, instead of #1 WR. First TO of the game goes SD way, but they can't move the ball and miss a FG(it's really windy). SD punter gets injured, this game is really going DEN way. Another uncharacteristic TO by DEN in the endzone stifles another scoring opportunity for DEN. SD kneels and goes into the half down 14-0. DEN D goose eggs SD for 3 quarters, but Q4 SD scores 17 pts, but it's not enough to overcome DEN 24 pts.



WOW, a perfect weekend 8 for 8 on my picks, perfect ATS, perfect TOTALS, I need to remember this, I think I have, I just didn't blogged it. Now at least it's for all to see, this can be done. You too can win ATS and on Totals during the playoffs.

I'm now 5-2-1 ATS and 7-1 Totals for the playoffs.

2013 - week 19 - Divisional playoffs - picks

Going out on limb, with a few picks, taking NE to cover due to emo win by IND, normal season game I probably wouldn't do so. Taking pts w/NO, I just don't expect the same game they had earlier this season.

The betting angle that won ATS last week
Bet on the older team (based on starters):

This week:
**NO, IND, SF, DEN**

note: there is a 1 yr difference between SD and DEN, SD hold edge w/career starts, all other categories DEN holds edge



The betting angle that won SU last week
Bet on the higher scoring efficiency O-D rating:

This week:
NO(10%) SEA(16%)
IND(7%) NE(11%)
SF(11%) CAR(7%)
SD(9%) DEN(15%)

** SEA, NE, SF, DEN **


The betting angle that won for totals last week
indoor game OVER, nice playing environment
outdoor game UNDER, frigid(WC19), cold and wet, frigid(WC-10)
(WC = Wind Chill)

This week:
all outdoors, UNDER????


Other notables from last week:
in two games the team(NO,SF) that had the ball last scored and won the game NO @PHI and SF @GB
SD D maybe the most underrated this year as CIN O really sputtered at home, putting up goose eggs in Q1, Q3, Q4
IND first half was dismal, dominated by KC, IND second half the most memorable for the weekend




01/11 4:35 PM
111 NO 48 *
112 SEA -8½ **UNDER**

SEA won wk13 @home 34-7
open dome?
I keep thinking give up the pts, but taking the pts - seems to be the prudent thing to do, I'm expecting a close game as NO is playing really well w/O, fairly well w/D and not so bad w/ST
SEA O can be a mystery to me, sometimes playing well and sometimes not, if they stick to their ground game, UNDER the total is the better bet



01/11 8:15 PM
113 IND 53 over
114 NE -7½ *

IND was very lucky to win last weekend vs KC, perhaps the luckiest to win.
NE should be well prep'd to finish the game, even if they attain a two score lead.
All of NE losses this year have been on the road, I don't expect them to lose, but will they cover?
Interesting pick up w/IND acquiring former NE WR Branch, seems to me this will help IND D.
I'm much more undecided w/total, first choosing under, but after some thought picking OVER.



01/12 1:00 PM
115 SF -2 **
116 CAR 43 ***UNDER***

CAR won wk10 on the road 10-9
I'm just thinking SF gains the season series split, CAR O especially on 3rd down appears to be ineffective for most of the game, this time SF D may goose egg CAR O.



01/12 4:40 PM
117 SD 55 *
118 DEN -9½ under

split series, road team wins
wk10 DEN 28-20 
wk15 SD 27-20

an even colder place to play for SD
noted: This year DEN has losses to the remaining AFC PO opponents IND(6pt), NE(3pt), SD(7pt)

A safer bet would be to tease(+6) the side and total, 
bet SD+6 [+15½], Total UNDER+6 [61]
or DEN+6 [-3½], Total UNDER+6 [61]

I'm thinking DEN wins SU, winning by 10+pts maybe tough to do vs SD HC McCoy who is very familiar w/DEN players