The betting angle that won ATS last week Bet on the older team (based on starters): This week: **NO, IND, SF, DEN** note: there is a 1 yr difference between SD and DEN, SD hold edge w/career starts, all other categories DEN holds edge The betting angle that won SU last week Bet on the higher scoring efficiency O-D rating: This week: NO(10%) SEA(16%) IND(7%) NE(11%) SF(11%) CAR(7%) SD(9%) DEN(15%) ** SEA, NE, SF, DEN ** The betting angle that won for totals last week indoor game OVER, nice playing environment outdoor game UNDER, frigid(WC19), cold and wet, frigid(WC-10) (WC = Wind Chill) This week: all outdoors, UNDER???? Other notables from last week: in two games the team(NO,SF) that had the ball last scored and won the game NO @PHI and SF @GB SD D maybe the most underrated this year as CIN O really sputtered at home, putting up goose eggs in Q1, Q3, Q4 IND first half was dismal, dominated by KC, IND second half the most memorable for the weekend 01/11 4:35 PM 111 NO 48 * 112 SEA -8½ **UNDER** SEA won wk13 @home 34-7 open dome? I keep thinking give up the pts, but taking the pts - seems to be the prudent thing to do, I'm expecting a close game as NO is playing really well w/O, fairly well w/D and not so bad w/ST SEA O can be a mystery to me, sometimes playing well and sometimes not, if they stick to their ground game, UNDER the total is the better bet 01/11 8:15 PM 113 IND 53 over 114 NE -7½ * IND was very lucky to win last weekend vs KC, perhaps the luckiest to win. NE should be well prep'd to finish the game, even if they attain a two score lead. All of NE losses this year have been on the road, I don't expect them to lose, but will they cover? Interesting pick up w/IND acquiring former NE WR Branch, seems to me this will help IND D. I'm much more undecided w/total, first choosing under, but after some thought picking OVER. 01/12 1:00 PM 115 SF -2 ** 116 CAR 43 ***UNDER*** CAR won wk10 on the road 10-9 I'm just thinking SF gains the season series split, CAR O especially on 3rd down appears to be ineffective for most of the game, this time SF D may goose egg CAR O. 01/12 4:40 PM 117 SD 55 * 118 DEN -9½ under split series, road team wins wk10 DEN 28-20 wk15 SD 27-20 an even colder place to play for SD noted: This year DEN has losses to the remaining AFC PO opponents IND(6pt), NE(3pt), SD(7pt) A safer bet would be to tease(+6) the side and total, bet SD+6 [+15½], Total UNDER+6  or DEN+6 [-3½], Total UNDER+6  I'm thinking DEN wins SU, winning by 10+pts maybe tough to do vs SD HC McCoy who is very familiar w/DEN players
Tuesday, January 07, 2014
2013 - week 19 - Divisional playoffs - picks
Going out on limb, with a few picks, taking NE to cover due to emo win by IND, normal season game I probably wouldn't do so. Taking pts w/NO, I just don't expect the same game they had earlier this season.