Tuesday, January 07, 2014

2013 - week 19 - Divisional playoffs - picks

Going out on limb, with a few picks, taking NE to cover due to emo win by IND, normal season game I probably wouldn't do so. Taking pts w/NO, I just don't expect the same game they had earlier this season.
The betting angle that won ATS last week
Bet on the older team (based on starters):

This week:
**NO, IND, SF, DEN**

note: there is a 1 yr difference between SD and DEN, SD hold edge w/career starts, all other categories DEN holds edge

The betting angle that won SU last week
Bet on the higher scoring efficiency O-D rating:

This week:
NO(10%) SEA(16%)
IND(7%) NE(11%)
SF(11%) CAR(7%)
SD(9%) DEN(15%)

** SEA, NE, SF, DEN **

The betting angle that won for totals last week
indoor game OVER, nice playing environment
outdoor game UNDER, frigid(WC19), cold and wet, frigid(WC-10)
(WC = Wind Chill)

This week:
all outdoors, UNDER????

Other notables from last week:
in two games the team(NO,SF) that had the ball last scored and won the game NO @PHI and SF @GB
SD D maybe the most underrated this year as CIN O really sputtered at home, putting up goose eggs in Q1, Q3, Q4
IND first half was dismal, dominated by KC, IND second half the most memorable for the weekend

01/11 4:35 PM
111 NO 48 *
112 SEA -8½ **UNDER**

SEA won wk13 @home 34-7
open dome?
I keep thinking give up the pts, but taking the pts - seems to be the prudent thing to do, I'm expecting a close game as NO is playing really well w/O, fairly well w/D and not so bad w/ST
SEA O can be a mystery to me, sometimes playing well and sometimes not, if they stick to their ground game, UNDER the total is the better bet

01/11 8:15 PM
113 IND 53 over
114 NE -7½ *

IND was very lucky to win last weekend vs KC, perhaps the luckiest to win.
NE should be well prep'd to finish the game, even if they attain a two score lead.
All of NE losses this year have been on the road, I don't expect them to lose, but will they cover?
Interesting pick up w/IND acquiring former NE WR Branch, seems to me this will help IND D.
I'm much more undecided w/total, first choosing under, but after some thought picking OVER.

01/12 1:00 PM
115 SF -2 **
116 CAR 43 ***UNDER***

CAR won wk10 on the road 10-9
I'm just thinking SF gains the season series split, CAR O especially on 3rd down appears to be ineffective for most of the game, this time SF D may goose egg CAR O.

01/12 4:40 PM
117 SD 55 *
118 DEN -9½ under

split series, road team wins
wk10 DEN 28-20 
wk15 SD 27-20

an even colder place to play for SD
noted: This year DEN has losses to the remaining AFC PO opponents IND(6pt), NE(3pt), SD(7pt)

A safer bet would be to tease(+6) the side and total, 
bet SD+6 [+15½], Total UNDER+6 [61]
or DEN+6 [-3½], Total UNDER+6 [61]

I'm thinking DEN wins SU, winning by 10+pts maybe tough to do vs SD HC McCoy who is very familiar w/DEN players

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