2016 - week 21 (aka Play offs week 4) - picks

Two weeks away, but here's my instinct picks....

02/05 6:30 PM
101 NE -3 *
102 ATL 59 over

I normally would take under the total, but due to TV timeouts (and their length - longer than normal as compared to regular season) I'll go over... say... 35-30?

Below is a chart of each teams regular season opponents as well as the past two weeks of post season.

As you can see below, they have played 5 common opponents this season.
NE @ARI wk 1 win,  ARI @ATL wk 12 win (CoBye)
SEA @ NE wk 10 loss (CoBye), ATL @SEA wk 6 loss
NE @SF wk 11 win, SF @ATL wk 15 win
LA @NE wk 13 win, ATL @LA wk 14 win
NE @DEN wk 15 win, ATL @DEN wk 5 win

not much difference, if they played the opponent earlier in the season it was 'close', later on in the season much more scoring, a larger difference in scoring

NE
OPP where score opscre SU ATS dif
ARI road 23 21 W W 2
MIA home 31 24 W W 7
HOU home 27 0 W W 27
BUF home 0 16 L L -16
CLE road 33 13 W W 20
CIN home 35 17 W W 18
PIT road 27 16 W W 11
BUF road 41 25 W W 16
 bye bye bye   
SEA home 24 31 L L -7
SF road 30 17 W W 13
NYJ road 22 17 W L 5
LA home 26 10 W W 16
BAL home 30 23 W L 7
DEN road 16 3 W W 13
NYJ home 41 3 W W 38
MIA road 35 14 W W 21
 bye bye bye   
HOU home 34 16 W W 18
PIT home 36 17 W W 19

ATL
OPP where score opscre SU ATS dif
TB home 24 31 L L -7
OAK road 35 28 W W 7
NO road 45 32 W W 13
CAR home 48 33 W W 15
DEN road 23 16 W W 7
SEA road 24 26 L W -2
SD home 30 33 L L -3
GB home 33 32 W L 1
TB road 43 28 W W 15
PHI road 15 24 L L -9
 bye bye bye   
ARI home 38 19 W W 19
KC home 28 29 L L -1
LA road 42 14 W W 28
SF home 41 13 W W 28
CAR road 33 16 W W 17
NO home 38 32 W L 6
 bye bye bye   
SEA home 36 20 W W 16
GB home 44 21 W W 23

2016 - week 20 (aka Play offs week 3) - picks

these games should be great to watch....

01/22 3:05 PM
311 GB 60 *
312 ATL -4½ *over*

week 8 rematch ATL won 33-32 vs GB



01/22 6:40 PM
313 PIT 51½ *
314 NE -6 *under*

week 7 rematch NE won 27-16 @PIT

2016 - week 19 (aka Play offs week 2) - picks

well here goes nothing...

01/14 4:35 PM
301 SEA 51½ *over*
302 ATL -4½ *

SEA doesn't do well on the road...
29-20?


01/14 8:15 PM
303 HOU 45 under
304 NE -16 *

tempted to take pts, but this will be disciple against master... lol
27-6?


01/15 1:05 PM
305 PIT -1 over
306 KC 46½ *

noted: PIT QB Roethlisberger wearing ankle boot after PO week 1 game
30-24?


01/15 4:40 PM
307 GB 51½ *
308 DAL -4 over

We're seeing a performance for the ages w/GB QB Rogers
31-27?

2016 - week 18 (aka Play offs week 1) - picks

Update 1/4: added White Hat(WH) records - tendencies - of which some are going against what I picked, maybe I'll change...

OAK @HOU, is a game that's tough to call. Overall OAK is the better team, the edge @QB should go to HOU, but each team will need to win running the ball, stopping the run and playing field position w/their respective ST players OAK has the more experienced FG kicker, but HOU has the better punter...

01/07 4:35 PM
101 OAK 37 under
102 HOU -3 *

week 11 rematch OAK won 27-20 vs HOU (@OAK)
OAK QB Cook starts? (1st)
HOU QB Osweiler starts?
Placing a first half bet on under (18½?) seems prudent
Both teams will need to win running the ball, play good ST and outstanding D
There should be a lot of punts, likely 6 to 7 punts each, with the most 
possessions to be 10 for each team. So 3 to 4 scores at most for each team
Likely only 1 TD each and the rest FGs...
Sports books posted a total of 37 (20-17)
I'm thinking 16-13 at most...
This game really looks like a 6pt tease candidate, w/OAK +9 and under 43 combo.
or if you're into 'middling' do 6½ pt tease
HOU +2½/OAK +9½ or under 43½/over 31½ as possible
or if you're really fearful do a 7pt tease
HOU +3/OAK +10 or under 44/over 30 as possible
if OAK can win with run O, this game could be moneyline win
WH 12-3 FAV SU (LY 13-2 FAV SU)

01/07 8:15 PM
103 DET 42½ *
104 SEA -7½ **over**

judging by the total posted for this game, sportsbooks have questions
6 pt tease = DET +13½/over 36½
DET moneyline?
normally I'd look at under due to SEA D prowess, but I'm thinking at the half a 
score of 13-10 or more is likely
WH 3-12 Over-Under

01/08 1:05 PM
105 MIA 47 over
106 PIT -10 *

week 6 rematch MIA won 30-15 vs PIT (@MIA)
MIA QB Moore starts (3rd)
6 pt tease = PIT -4 over 41 MIA +16 (unsure if under 53 will win)
PIT should win, cover? 31-20?
WH 11-4 RoadATS & FAV SU (LY 12-3 FAV SU)

01/08 4:40 PM
107 NYG 44½ *
108 GB -4 **under**

Placing a first half bet on under (22½?) seems prudent
week 5 rematch GB won 23-16 vs NYG (@GB)
6 pt tease = under 50½ NYG +10 GB +1 (I don't think over 38½ will win)
21-17?
WH 10-4-1 RoadATS 4-10-1 FAV-DOG-tie (LY 3-13 FAV-DOG)

2016 - week 17 - picks

aaahhh... the last week of the regular season - just as tough to pick (well at least for me) this week as last week...

01/01 1:00 PM
301 HOU 40 *under*
302 TEN -3 *

HOU QB Savage starts (2nd)
TEN QB Cassel starts (1st)



01/01 1:00 PM
303 BUF -6½ **under**
304 NYJ 44 *

BUF interim HC OC Lynn
BUF HC Ryan fired
BUF QB Manuel starts
NYJ QB Ftzpatrick starts



01/01 1:00 PM
305 BAL 41½ *
306 CIN -2½ *under*

BAL WR Smith last game (retires?)
BAL sweeps?
CIN splits?



01/01 4:25 PM
307 NYG 44 *
308 WAS -8 over

NYG in PO spot
NYG splits?
WAS sweeps?
WAS must win for chance @PO spot



01/01 8:30 PM
309 GB -3 ***OVER***
310 DET 46½ *

winner NFC North champ
GB sweeps?
DET splits?



01/01 1:00 PM
311 JAC 47 ***over***
312 IND -4½ *

JAC RBs OUT who starts?
JAC sweeps?
IND splits?



01/01 1:00 PM
313 DAL 42½ under
314 PHI -6 *

DAL sweeps?
PHI splits?



01/01 1:00 PM
315 CHI 41 under
316 MIN -5½ *

CHI sweeps?
MIN splits?



01/01 1:00 PM
317 CAR 46½ *
318 TB -6½ over

CAR splits?
TB sweeps?
TB must win for chance @PO spot



01/01 1:00 PM
319 CLE 44 *
320 PIT -7 under

CLE splits?
PIT sweeps?



01/01 4:25 PM
321 NO 56 ***over***
322 ATL -7 *

NO splits?
ATL sweeps?
ATL win/loss could affect PO seeding



01/01 1:00 PM
323 NE -9½ over
324 MIA 44½ ***

NE likely AFC #1 seed
NE sweeps?
MIA splits?
MIA in PO spot, could move up a knotch
MIA QB Moore starts (2nd)
MIA HC Gase we're not resting starters



01/01 4:25 PM
325 ARI -6½ *
326 LA 41 under

ARI splits?
LA sweeps?



01/01 4:25 PM
327 KC -5 *
328 SD 45½ over

KC either AFC West champ or PO berth
KC sweeps?
SD splits?



01/01 4:25 PM
329 SEA -9½ *
330 SF 43 under

SEA win/loss could affect PO seeding
SEA win #2 seed
SEA loss #3? seed
SEA sweeps?
SF splits?



01/01 4:25 PM
331 OAK 41½ under
332 DEN -2½ *

OAK QB McGloin starts (1st)
OAK either AFC West champ or PO berth
OAK sweeps?
DEN splits?

2016 - week 16 - picks

The games with playoff motivation are easy to spot, the games w/o motivation are much tougher to predict...

12/22 8:25 PM
101 NYG -2½ *
102 PHI 41½ under

wk9 NYG won 28-23 vs PHI
sweep?
sub-freezing, windy


12/24 1:00 PM
103 WAS -3½ *under*
104 CHI 45½ *

WAS CoMNF (6 days between games)
WAS vs NFC N 2-1 SU/ATS (MIN,GB-DET)
CHI vs NFC E 0-3 SU 1-2 ATS (PHI,DAL,NYG)
cloudy, cold


12/24 1:00 PM
105 MIA 42 *
106 BUF -4 over

wk7 MIA won 28-25 vs BUF
MIA ST 2wks-in-a-row block
sweep?
RAIN, gusty? cold



12/24 4:25 PM
107 TB 52½ * 
108 NO -3 under

wk14 TB won 16-11 vs NO
sweep?



12/24 1:00 PM
109 ATL -2½ *over*
110 CAR 52 *

ATL w/win clinch div and PO berth
CAR spoiler?
CAR CoMNF (6 days between games)
wk4 ATL won 48-33 vs CAR
split?



12/24 1:00 PM
111 MIN 43 over
112 GB -6½ *

wk2 MIN won 17-14 vs GB
split?
cold, sun/cloud


12/24 1:00 PM
113 NYJ 44 *
114 NE -16½ *under*

NE should win SU, but ATS?
wk12 NE won 22-17 @NYJ
sweep?
RAIN, windy



12/24 1:00 PM
115 TEN -5 ***
116 JAC 44 under

TEN will run over JAC
JAC HC Bradley fired
wk8 TEN won 36-22 vs JAC
sweep?



12/24 1:00 PM
117 SD -6 under
118 CLE 44 *

Peer Game
SD 0-1 SU/ATS (MIA)
CLE 0-1 SU 1-0 ATS (TEN)
RAIN? windy



12/24 4:05 PM
119 IND 53 *
120 OAK -3½ *over*

IND vs AFC W 1-2 SU/ATS (SD-DEN,KC)
OAK vs AFC S 3-0 SU/ATS
WH road 10-3-1 dog 10-3-1



12/24 4:25 PM
121 SF 40 under
122 LA -3½ *

SF inj's
wk1 SF won 28-0 vs LA
split?
WH FAV SU 9-4



12/24 4:25 PM
123 ARI 43 *
124 SEA -8½ *under*

wk7 ARI tie 6-6 vs SEA
WH FAV SU 11-2



12/24 8:25 PM
125 CIN 41 **UNDER**
126 HOU -1½ *

CIN LB Burfict OUT?
CIN LG Boling OUT?
Peer Game
CIN 0-1 SU/ATS (DEN)
HOU 0-1 SU/ATS (NE)
HOU QB Savage starts (1st) (nice Q4 comeback win last week vs JAC)



12/25 4:30 PM
127 BAL 44 under
128 PIT -5 *

wk9 BAL won 21-14 vs PIT
split?
rain? wind?



12/25 8:30 PM
129 DEN 37½ ***under***
130 KC -3½ *

wk12 KC won 30-27 @DEN
sweep?
RAIN, GUSTY, COLD, clears?



12/26 8:30 PM
131 DET 43 over
132 DAL -7 *

DET inj's?
DET vs NFC E 2-1 SU/ATS (PHI,WAS-NYG)
DAL vs NFC N 3-0 SU 2-1 ATS (CHI,GB,MIN)

2016 - week 15 - picks

Update 12/17 changed HOU/Under to JAC/Under
Update 12/16 changed CHI/Over to GB/Under due to weather
I'm a bit tired, wish I could be more thorough...

12/15 8:25 PM
301 LA 38½ *under*
302 SEA -15 *

LA HC Fisher fired
?20-10?



12/17 8:25 PM
303 MIA -2½ *
304 NYJ 38½ over

MIA QB Moore starts
NYJ inj's
wk9 MIA won 27-23 vs NYJ
MIA vs div SU/ATS 2-1
NYJ vs div SU 1-2 ATS 2-1
?27-24?



12/18 8:30 PM
305 TB 46 *
306 DAL -7 **under**

PEER game
wk10 TB won 36-10 vs CHI (wk7 won 34-17 @SF)
wk4 DAL won 24-17 @SF (wk3 won 31-17 vs CHI



12/18 1:00 PM
307 DET 41½ *under*
308 NYG -4½ *

DET QB Stafford finger ?limited?
DET vs NFC E SU/ATS 2-0
NYG vs NFC N SU 1-2 ATS 0-2-1
NYG last game @home SU 6-1 ATS 3-4
DET on the road SU 3-3 ATS 4-2



12/18 1:00 PM
309 PHI 41½ *under*
310 BAL -6 *

PHI inj's
BAL CoMNF



12/18 1:00 PM
311 GB -7 *
312 CHI 41 **under**

wk7 GB won 26-10 vs CHI
CHI WR Jeffery returns
GB SU on moneyline, I don't expect them to lose SU
just ATS loss



12/18 1:00 PM
313 IND 45 *
314 MIN -4 over

IND inj's
IND on the road SU 3-3 ATS 3-2-1
IND vs NFC N SU/ATS 2-1
MIN vs AFC S SU/ATS 3-0
MIN @home SU 4-2 ATS 5-1



12/18 1:00 PM
315 CLE 42 *under*
316 BUF -10 *

CLE QB RGIII 3rd start (2nd in a row)



12/18 1:00 PM
317 TEN 42½ *
318 KC -5½ ***UNDER***

TEN CoTNF (10 days rest)
PLAYOFF implications



12/18 1:00 PM
319 JAC 39½ *
320 HOU -6 *under*

wk10 HOU WON 24-21 @JAC
WH road dog ATS 9-3-1
not a game to bet on...



12/18 4:05 PM
321 NO 50½ *
322 ARI -2½ **over**

NO on the road SU 2-4, ATS 5-1
NO 3-0 vs NFC W 
ARI last game @home SU 4-2-1 W-L-T ATS 3-4
ARI 1-2 vs NFC S (win TB, lost CAR ATL)
?27-24?


12/18 4:05 PM
323 SF 51½ ***UNDER***
324 ATL -13½ ***

SF injs



12/18 4:25 PM
325 NE -3 ***
326 DEN 44 *under*

PEER game
NE CoMNF
NE on the road SU 6-0 ATS 5-1
DEN @home SU/ATS 4-2



12/18 4:25 PM
327 OAK -3 *****
328 SD 50 over

OAK CoTNF (10 days rest)
OAK on the road SU/ATS 5-1
SD inj's
wk5 OAK won 34-31 vs SD



12/18 1:00 PM
329 PIT -3 *
330 CIN 44 under

wk2 PIT won 24-16 vs CIN
PIT vs DIV SU/ATS 2-1
PIT final road game SU/ATS 4-3
CIN vs DIV SU/ATS 2-2
CIN @home SU 3-2-1 ATS 3-3



12/19 8:30 PM
331 CAR 51 over
332 WAS -4½ *

PEER Game
wk3 (Peer game 1) CAR lost vs MIN
wk13 (Peer game 1) WAS lost @ARI
CAR on the road, SU 1-5 ATS 1-4-1
WAS @home SU/ATS 4-2
WAS has inj's but CAR has not played very well in road games

2016 - week 14 - picks

Changed pick from NE/Under to BAL/Under
Changed pick from GB/Over to SEA/Over

CoB (Coming off Bye)
CLE TEN

12/08 8:25 PM
101 OAK 47 under
102 KC -3 *

Which team is 'charmed'?



12/11 1:00 PM
105 DEN 43½ under
106 TEN -1 *

TEN CoB



12/11 1:00 PM
107 SD 48½ *
108 CAR -3 under

CAR CoSNF



12/11 1:00 PM
109 HOU 46½ **UNDER**
110 IND -5½ *

IND CoMNF



12/11 1:00 PM
111 CIN -6 *
112 CLE 43½ over

CLE CoB



12/11 1:00 PM
113 PIT -2 *
114 BUF 47½ ***OVER***



12/11 1:00 PM
115 ARI 43½ *
116 MIA -2 over



12/11 1:00 PM
117 CHI 43½ *under*
118 DET -8 *



12/11 1:00 PM
119 MIN -3½ *
120 JAC 39½ **UNDER**

MIN CoTNF



12/11 4:25 PM
121 NO 51½ under
122 TB -2½ *



12/11 1:00 PM
123 WAS -1 *
124 PHI 47 over



12/11 4:05 PM
125 NYJ 46½ under
126 SF -1 *

NYJ CoMNF



12/11 4:25 PM
127 SEA -2½ *
128 GB 46½ *over *

SEA FS Thomas IR OFY
SEA CoSNF



12/11 4:25 PM
129 ATL -6 *
130 LA 45 **UNDER**



12/11 8:30 PM
131 DAL -3 *
132 NYG 47½ under

DAL CoTNF



12/12 8:30 PM
133 BAL 46 *
134 NE -7½ *under*

2016 - week 13 - picks

With the news of CAR C Kalil and Gradkowski on IR, taking CAR on the road is iffy...

Hmmmmm?
AFC North loses all their games this week?
NFC East wins all their games this week?

12/01 8:25 PM
301 DAL -3½ ***
302 MIN 44 under

DAL CoTNF
MIN CoTNF


12/04 1:00 PM
351 DEN -5 *
352 JAC 41 under

DEN CoSNF OT



12/04 1:00 PM
353 KC 49½ ***over***
354 ATL -3½ *

KC CoSNF OT
ATL wins vs teams w/winning record



12/04 1:00 PM
355 HOU 45½ **under**
356 GB -6 *

HOU O awful
GB CoMNF


12/04 1:00 PM
357 PHI -1 *
358 CIN 42½ *under*

PHI a little more desperate?
PHI CoMNF



12/04 1:00 PM
359 DET 53½ ***over***
360 NO -6 *

DET CoTNF
PEER Game



12/04 1:00 PM
361 SF 43½ ***
362 CHI -1½ **under**

CHI inj's continue LB Trevathan OFY
PEER Game



12/04 1:00 PM
363 LA 44½ *
364 NE -13½ *under*

NE will win, will they cover?



12/04 1:00 PM
365 MIA 41 ***
366 BAL -3½ *over*

MIA coming of age?



12/04 4:05 PM
367 BUF 49 over
368 OAK -3 *

PEER Game



12/04 4:25 PM
369 TB 47½ *
370 SD -4 over

TB impressive past 2 weeks



12/04 4:25 PM
371 WAS 49½ ***
372 ARI -2½ under

WAS CoTNF
PEER Game



12/04 4:25 PM
373 NYG 49½ *
374 PIT -6 over

Will Peytons help give NYG edge?
PIT CoTNF



12/04 8:30 PM
375 CAR 44½ *
376 SEA -7 ***UNDER***

CAR rookie C Larsen starts (1st)



12/05 8:30 PM
377 IND -1½ ***
378 NYJ 49½ **over**

Expecting IND QB Luck to start and dominate
PEER Game

2016 - week 11 - picks

Changed pick from TB/Over to KC/Under
Changed pick from CLE/Over to CLE/Under (looks like snow?)
Changed pick from WAS/Over to WAS/Under (looks like snow?)

CoB:
BUF DET IND OAK

11/17 8:25 PM
309 NO 52 *under*
310 CAR -3½ *

I'm unsure if CAR will cover the spread...
But since I do believe in the series season split...
CAR will get the win SU and I think the cover...
note: if I were to take NO I would combine w/OVER the total


11/20 1:00 PM
451 TEN 53½ *
452 IND -3 over

IND won 34-26 @TEN



11/20 1:00 PM
453 JAC 47 over
454 DET -6½ *

with the rest of the NFC North 'hurting' (CHI GB MIN)
this looks like a chance for DET to ascend to #1



11/20 1:00 PM
455 TB 44½ *under*
456 KC -7 **

TB C?



11/20 1:00 PM
457 CHI 43½ under
458 NYG -7 ****

CHI WR Jefferies susp'd G11-14
CHI injuries... (RG, RT)
NYG CoMNF



11/20 1:00 PM
459 ARI 40½ *
460 MIN -2 **under**

MIN LT Long OFY
MIN D nicked up



11/20 1:00 PM
461 BUF 47 *
462 CIN -2½ under

CIN CoMNF



11/20 1:00 PM
463 BAL 45 over
464 DAL -7 *

BAL CoTNF
BAL RG Yanda returns


11/20 1:00 PM
465 PIT -8 *under*
466 CLE 45 *

PIT disarray?
CLE CoTNF



11/20 4:05 PM
467 MIA -2½ **
468 LA 40 under

MIA LT Albert OUT
MIA C Pouncey OUT?
LA QB Goff starts (1st)



11/20 4:25 PM
469 NE -12 over
470 SF 51½ *



11/20 4:25 PM
471 PHI 43 under
472 SEA -6½ *

PHI much better @home



11/20 8:30 PM
473 GB 49½ **under**
474 WAS -3 ***

GB fading fast...
GB numerous inj's...
GB RG Lang OUT?
GB RB Michael starts?
WAS LS Sundberg OUT



11/21 8:30 PM
475 HOU 46½ over
476 OAK -6 ***

OAK still rising

2016 - week 10 - picks

I may change a few picks later on this week, watching for injury updates...
10NOV - changed pick from CAR/Under to KC/Under (QB Smith, RB Ware and LB Houston return)

CoB:
ARI CHI CIN HOU NE WAS

GiB:
ATL DEN NYJ SD





11/10 8:25 PM
109 CLE 45 *
110 BAL -10 under

11/13 1:00 PM
251 HOU -1½ *
252 JAC 43 under

11/13 1:00 PM
253 KC 44 *
254 CAR -3 ***UNDER***

11/13 1:00 PM
255 DEN 49½ under
256 NO -1½ ***

11/13 1:00 PM
257 LA 39½ *
258 NYJ -2 under

11/13 1:00 PM
259 ATL 50½ *
260 PHI -1 over

11/13 1:00 PM
261 MIN 42 under
262 WAS -2½ *

11/13 1:00 PM
263 GB -2½ ***OVER***
264 TEN 49½ *

11/13 1:00 PM
265 CHI -1½ ***
266 TB 45 over

11/13 4:05 PM
267 MIA 49 *
268 SD -3½ **OVER**

11/13 4:25 PM
269 SF 48½ *
270 ARI -13½ under

11/13 4:25 PM
271 DAL 50½ *
272 PIT -2½ over

11/13 8:30 PM
273 SEA 48½ over
274 NE -7½ ***

11/14 8:30 PM
275 CIN 47 over
276 NYG -2½ *

2016 - week 9 - picks

Curious, curious.... now why would a nfl veteran coach resign at mid-season with a 5-2 record? An OC as respected as Turner is around the league if he was choosing to resign this year wait it out until the end of the season. xMIN OC Turner resigns and he states it's not due to health reason, but offensive philosophy....
And why oh why is HC Zimmer so surprised? The only person closer to the QB than Turner is coach Shurmur - who actually was w/QB Bradford twice on different teams ... the Rams and the Eagles...
Me thinks Turner was expecting something else than what he was getting from coach Shurmur and it really affected MIN O and I think it'll affect them this week as well...

CoB:
BAL LA MIA NYG PIT SF

GiB:
BUF DET IND OAK



11/03 8:25 PM
307 ATL -3½ *****
308 TB 51½ under

ATL RB Coleman OUT
TB RB Rodgers OUT
TB DT McDonald OUT
wk1 TB 31 @ATL 24



11/06 1:00 PM
451 JAC 45½ **UNDER**
452 KC -9 *

JAC new OC Hackett
JAC CoTNF
KC QB Foles starts
KC RB West starts



11/06 1:00 PM
453 DET 41 *
454 MIN -6 *UNDER*

DET DE Bryant susp'd
DET GiB
MIN OC Turner resigns, new OC Shurmur 
MIN CoMNF


11/06 1:00 PM
455 PHI 43 *
456 NYG -2½ over

PHI G Barbre OUT?
NYG CoB



11/06 1:00 PM
457 DAL -7½ *
458 CLE 48½ over

DAL S Church OUT
DAL CB Clairborne OUT
CLE LB Collins starts?



11/06 1:00 PM
459 NYJ 44 under
460 MIA -3½ **

MIA CoB



11/06 1:00 PM
461 PIT 43½ **UNDER**
462 BAL -2 *

PIT QB Landry 2nd start
PIT CoB
BAL CoB



11/06 4:05 PM
463 NO -3½ ***
464 SF 52 under

SF CoB



11/06 4:05 PM
465 CAR -3 ***
466 LA 45 under

LA CoB



11/06 4:25 PM
467 IND 54 *under*
468 GB -7 ***

IND inj's WR,S,CB,RT,RG
IND GiB



11/06 4:25 PM
469 TEN 47½ *OVER*
470 SD -5 *

TEN RB Henry starts?
TEN CoTNF



11/06 8:30 PM
471 DEN -1 *
472 OAK 43½ *under*

OAK CB Smith OUT
OAK GiB



11/07 8:30 PM
473 BUF 44 *
474 SEA -7 **UNDER**

BUF GiB
SEA DE Bennett OUT
SEA S Chancellor OUT?

2016 - week 8 - picks

all hallow's weekend....


CoB
CAR DAL

GiB
ARI CHI CIN HOU NE WAS

10/27 8:25 PM
101 JAC 44 ***over**
102 TEN -3½ **

TEN LG Spain OUT
TEN RCB Cox OUT
WH DOG ATS 6-1
WH O/U 5-2


10/30 9:30 AM
251 WAS 47 under
252 CIN -3 **

WAS LT Williams OUT?
WAS CB Norman OUT?
WAS RB Jones OUT?
WAS GiB
CIN LT Whitworth OUT?
CIN GiB
@Wembley
WH FAV SU 6-0
WH O/U 5-1


10/30 4:25 PM
253 GB 53 *
254 ATL -3 **OVER**

GB CoTNF
ATL RB Coleman OUT?
WH HOME ATS 6-0


10/30 1:00 PM
255 DET 45½ *
256 HOU -2½ ***OVER***

HOU CoMNF
HOU GiB
WH O/U 1-5


10/30 1:00 PM
257 SEA -3 **under**
258 NO 48 *

SEA D vs NO O
SEA O vs NO D


10/30 1:00 PM
259 NE -6½ *
260 BUF 47½ under

NE GiB
BUF beat up on O skill
can't see BUF sweeping NE, NE should be motivated



10/30 1:00 PM
261 NYJ -3 *under*
262 CLE 43 *

NYJ beat up
CLE QB Hogan starts? (1st) or McCown (collarbone 5?wks)



10/30 1:00 PM
263 OAK 49½ **
264 TB -1 over

OAK stays on East Coast after week 7 game @JAC
OAK TC 2.0 in Bradenton Florida


10/30 1:00 PM
265 KC -3 ***
266 IND 50 over



10/30 4:05 PM
267 SD 44 *
268 DEN -5½ over

SD TE Henry concussion OUT?
SD CB Mager concussion OUT?
DEN RB Anderson OUT
DEN CoMNF
WH DOG ATS 5-1
WH O/U 1-5


10/30 1:00 PM
269 ARI 48 ***UNDER***
270 CAR -2½ *

ARI GiB
CAR CoB



10/30 8:30 PM
271 PHI 43½ under
272 DAL -4½ *

DAL CoB



10/31 8:30 PM
273 MIN -5½ *
274 CHI 41 under

CHI CoTNF
CHI GiB
CHI QB Cutler returns

2016 - week 7 - picks

I'm a bit late posting due to things beyond my control....

10/20 8:25 PM
301 CHI 46 *under*
302 GB -8 *

CHI LG Sitton OUT
taking the pts...


10/23 9:30 AM
451 NYG -3 **
452 LA 43½ under

@Wembley Stadium, London, England
NYG GiB
LA GiB


10/23 1:00 PM
453 MIN -2½ *****
454 PHI 40 under

MIN CoB
WH Dog/Over 5-1


10/23 1:00 PM
455 NO 50½ under
456 KC -6½ *

WH Dog ATS 5-1


10/23 1:00 PM
457 WAS 49 *
458 DET -1½ over

10/23 1:00 PM
459 CLE 45½ *
460 CIN -10 *over*

CLE inj's catching up w/team?


10/23 1:00 PM
461 BUF -3 *over*
462 MIA 44½ *

MIA S Jones OUT
MIA GiB
WH O/U 0-5


10/23 1:00 PM
463 OAK 49 *
464 JAC -1 over

WH O/U 5-0-1


10/23 1:00 PM
465 IND 48½ under
466 TEN -2½ *

10/23 1:00 PM
467 BAL 41½ under
468 NYJ -1 **

BAL GiB
NYJ CoMNF
NYJ QB Smith starts
WH Home ATS 5-0


10/23 4:05 PM
469 SD 53½ ***OVER***
470 ATL -6½ *

SD CoTnF


10/23 4:05 PM
471 TB -2 *over*
472 SF 47½ *

TB CoB
SF GiB


10/23 4:25 PM
473 NE -7 ***
474 PIT 46 under

PIT QB Jones starts
PIT GiB


10/23 8:30 PM
475 SEA 44 *
476 ARI -2 over

ARI CoMNF

10/24 8:30 PM
477 HOU 40½ under
478 DEN -7 *

DEN HC Kubiak returns
DEN CoTnF
WH O/U 5-0, FAV SU 5-0

2016 - week 6 - picks

CoB (coming off bye week):
JAC KC NO SEA

GiB (going into bye week):
CAR DAL

10/13 8:25 PM
103 DEN -3 *over*
104 SD 45 *

DEN HC Kubiak OUT
DEN QB Siemian starts?
DEN RT issue, SD should exploit
SD Fans says team "garbage"
WH O/U 4-0


10/16 1:00 PM
251 CIN 47 under
252 NE -9 *

NE wins SU, will they cover ATS?



10/16 1:00 PM
253 BAL 44½ **under**
254 NYG -3 **

BAL new OC Mornhinweg
BAL WRs Smith OUT? Wallace OUT?
BAL OL shuffle, LT/RG/RT?
NYG OL n 2ndary ???
NYG DE Pierre-Paul OUT?
I go back n forth on pick'g BAL and NYG
WH O/U 4-0-1


10/16 1:00 PM
255 CAR -3½ under
256 NO 53 *

CAR QB Newton starts? Anderson starts?
CAR GiB
CAR CoMNF
NO CoB
I expect NO to run much more than usual
WH HOME ATS 4-0


10/16 1:00 PM
257 PIT -7½ ***
258 MIA 48 under

could MIA be embarrassed any worse?
MIA RB Foster returns?
WH Road ATS 4-0-1


10/16 1:00 PM
259 JAC 47½ **
260 CHI -2½ over

JAC CoB


10/16 1:00 PM
261 SF 44½ *over*
262 BUF -8 ***

SF QB Kaepernick starts
SF CoTnF


10/16 1:00 PM
263 LA 43½ under
264 DET -3½ *

LA D inj's
DET NT Ngata OUT


10/16 1:00 PM
265 CLE 44 *over*
266 TEN -7 *

CLE QB McCown starts? Kessler? Whitehurst?
perhaps best chance for CLE to win until DEC
really thought about taking pts...
WH O/U 4-0 FAV SU 4-0


10/16 1:00 PM
267 PHI -2 *
268 WAS 45 ***OVER***

PHI healthy



10/16 4:05 PM
269 KC 47 *
270 OAK -1 ***OVER***

KC CoB


10/16 4:25 PM
271 ATL 45½ **UNDER**
272 SEA -6½ *

ATL is already in SEA practicing (unusual road trip)
ATL HC Quinn (xSEA DC 2 yrs ago)
SEA CoB
WH O/U 0-5


10/16 4:25 PM
273 DAL 47½ *
274 GB -4½ ***OVER***

DAL GiB
GB RB Lacy OUT?
WH O/U 0-4


10/16 8:30 PM
275 IND 46 *under*
276 HOU -3 *

HOU concussions TE/RG/CB OUT?


10/17 8:30 PM
277 NYJ 47 *under*
278 ARI -7½ *

NYJ lots of inj's
NYJ HC Bowles (xARI DC 2 yrs ago)
ARI CoTnF
ARI QB Palmer returns
ARI OL shuffle LG/RG

2016 - week 5 - picks

Coming off Bye - GB PHI
Going into Bye - MIN TB

10/06 8:25 PM
303 ARI -3 *
304 SF 42 **UNDER**

ARI QB Palmer OUT? Stanton starts?
SF LB Bowman OFY
SF LB Lynch starts off suspension
SF DE Buckner OUT
I expect ARI to run the ball much more
WH O/U 4-0, FAV SU 4-0


10/09 1:00 PM
451 HOU 40 under
452 MIN -6 *

MIN should be able to run on HOU D
MIN GiB


10/09 1:00 PM
453 TEN 43½ *
454 MIA -3½ under

TEN STc Bobby April fired
TEN aSTc Steve Hoffman assumes STc position
WH FAV ATS/SU O/U 4-0


10/09 1:00 PM
455 NE -10 ***
456 CLE 47 under

NE QB Brady starts off suspension


10/09 1:00 PM
457 NYJ 48½ under
458 PIT -7 *

WH O/U 3-0


10/09 1:00 PM
459 WAS 45 *over*
460 BAL -3½ **

should be a 50's game
WAS D 3 starters(SS, OLB, ILB) OUT?


10/09 1:00 PM
461 PHI -3 ****
462 DET 46 under

PHI CoB


10/09 1:00 PM
463 CHI 48 *
464 IND -4½ *over*

CHI committed to run O
IND DT Jones starts off suspension
WH DOG 4-0 ATS


10/09 4:05 PM
465 ATL 47 *over*
466 DEN -6 *

ATL thin @LB
DEN QB Siemian OUT? Lynch starts?
DEN should win, will they cover?


10/09 4:25 PM
467 BUF 39½ **
468 LA -2½ ***UNDER***

BUF DT Dareus starts off suspension
BUF RT Henderson starts? off suspension
Even though BUF has a interesting run O, if LA can scheme to put their best DL 
players at the edge, this could be very interesting...
Who wins? BUF run O or LA run D


10/09 4:25 PM
469 SD 50½ *
470 OAK -4 ***OVER***

SD HC McCoy 'furious' over last weeks lost to NO
OAK inj's TE, MLB, WLB
WH O/U 0-4


10/09 4:25 PM
471 CIN -1 ***
472 DAL 45½ over

DE Lawrence starts off suspension
DE Gregory starts? off suspension
MLB McClain starts? off suspension
WH O/U 0-4


10/09 8:30 PM
473 NYG 48 *over*
474 GB -7 *

GB CoB
DE Pennel starts off suspension
WH ROAD/OVER 4-0


10/10 8:30 PM
475 TB 42½ **under**
476 CAR -6 *

TB GiB
TB DT McCoy OUT?
WH O/U 4-0
L3Y CAR 6-0 SU 

2016 - week 4 - picks

And the attrition continues...

10/02 9:30 AM
251 IND -2½ **OVER**
252 JAC 49 *

@wembley
JAC GiB
WH trend home 3-0 ATS


10/02 1:00 PM
253 CLE 47 *
254 WAS -7½ under

WAS C? LG?
WAS 2ndary?
WAS lucky? last week @NYG (so says NYG G Pugh)


10/02 1:00 PM
255 BUF 43½ under
256 NE -7 *

NE 10day rest off TNF


10/02 1:00 PM
257 SEA -1½ under
258 NYJ 40 *

SEA GiB
WH trend FAV/Over 2-0


10/02 1:00 PM
259 CAR -3 *
260 ATL 50½ UNDER

ATL 6day rest off of MNF
WH trend dog 3-0 ATS


10/02 1:00 PM
261 DET -3 *
262 CHI 47½ *over*

WH trend over-under 0-3


10/02 1:00 PM
263 TEN 40½ **
264 HOU -4½ under

HOU 10day rest off TNF
WH trend Dog/Over 3-0


10/02 1:00 PM
265 OAK 46½ under
266 BAL -3½ *

BAL LG OUT?
WH trend Road/Over 3-0


10/02 4:05 PM
267 DEN -3 ***
268 TB 43 under

WH trend dog 3-0 ATS


10/02 4:25 PM
269 DAL -2 **
270 SF 44½ over

SF WR Smith OUT?
SF TE MacDonald OUT?


10/02 4:25 PM
271 NO 53½ ***OVER***
272 SD -4 *

NO 6day rest off of MNF
NO GiB
NO ST/D issues,


10/02 4:25 PM
273 LA 43 under
274 ARI -8½ *

ARI OL confused by D stunts
ARI ST? O out-of-sync
WH trend over-under 0-3


10/02 8:30 PM
275 KC 47 over
276 PIT -4 *

KC GiB
PIT RB Bell starts (off suspension)
WH trend over-under 0-3


10/03 8:30 PM
277 NYG 42½ over
278 MIN -4½ **

WH trend over-under 0-3

2016 - week 4 - TNF - picks

I feel a little better about the side rather than the total as the number of 44½ is low. With defenses for each team being the best part of the team at this time, it's a race to the 20's, first team to 20 will win. If both team score in the 20's the total should go over. Their is a new upgrade factor w/CIN LB Burfict, I suspect this will keep the score low under 20's for MIA. CIN without TE Eifert, WR Jones and Sanu, xOC Jackson - just hasn't gelled enough, maybe another month is needed...

A simpler way to win would be to do a 6pt tease:
Take CIN -1½ and under 50½ for a two pick 6pt tease, $11 should pay around $10

of if you're feeling brave, try "middling" w/6pt tease:
Take CIN -1½ and MIA +13½ as well as under 50½ and over 38½, $10 should pay around $65
or you could just middle sides or the total

09/29 8:25 PM
101 MIA 44½ *
102 CIN -7½ under

MIA HC Gase 'perform or else'
CIN LB Burfict starts (off 3G suspension)
CIN should win SU, but ATS???
Will MIA get to 20pts if so over, if not under

2016 - week 3 - picks

I'm posting a little later than normal, a little tired with work and home life...

Here's a little more with White Hat trends:

WH trends:
HOU @NE FAV

DEN @CIN OVER
OAK @TEN UNDER
ARI @BUF HOME/UNDER
BAL @JAC DOG/UNDER
CLE @MIA DOG/OVER
WAS @NYG FAV SU/DOG ATS
DET @GB HFO
MIN @CAR DOG

SF @SEA ROAD/DOG
LA @TB ROAD/OVER
PIT @PHI UNDER
NYJ @KC DOG
SD @IND UNDER

CHI @DAL FAV/OVER

ATL @NO HFU

HFO = Home Fav Over

HFU = Home Fav Under

09/22 8:25 PM
301 HOU -2½ ***UNDER***
302 NE 41 **

NE QB Brissett starts (1st)


09/25 1:00 PM
461 DEN 42 ***
462 CIN -3 under

CIN every week, - a step up against good/great D


09/25 1:00 PM
463 OAK 47 *
464 TEN -1½ under

OAK D 'Oley'
TEN D among best RZ this season


09/25 1:00 PM
465 ARI -4½ ****
466 BUF 47 under

BUF new OC


09/25 1:00 PM
467 BAL -1 *
468 JAC 47½ *under*

2-0 vs 0-2
JAC LT Beachum OUT?


09/25 1:00 PM
469 CLE 41½ **UNDER**
470 MIA -10 **

CLE QB Kessler starts
CLE C Erving OUT
MIA C Pouncey OUT
MIA RB Foster OUT
0-2 vs 0-2
MIA should win, but cover ATS?


09/25 1:00 PM
471 WAS 46½ *
472 NYG -4 *under*

NYG should win SU, WAS wins ATS?


09/25 1:00 PM
473 DET 48 over
474 GB -7½ *

DET so many inj's..


09/25 1:00 PM
475 MIN 43 *
476 CAR -7 *under*

MIN LT Kalil OUT
MIN RB Petersen OUT
CAR RB Stewart OUT


09/25 4:05 PM
477 SF 40½ *
478 SEA -10 over

history sides w/SEA


09/25 4:05 PM
479 LA 42 under
480 TB -5 *

2nd road game for LA, 1st East coast trip
TB RB Martin OUT


09/25 4:25 PM
481 PIT -6 ***
482 PHI 46 under

PHI has played CLE and CHI, confidence builders


09/25 4:25 PM
483 NYJ 43 *
484 KC -3 *under

1st half take NYJ?
KC O awful slow starts, D can't stop good QBs


09/25 4:25 PM
485 SD 52 ***
486 IND -3 under

1st Half take SD?
2nd Half take IND?


09/25 8:30 PM
487 CHI 45½ *over*
488 DAL -5 *

CHI QB Hoyer starts?
CHI QB Cutler thumb D2D
CHI LB Trevathan thumb OUT
CHI LB Houston knee OUT
CHI NT Goldman ankle OUT



09/26 8:30 PM
489 ATL 54 over
490 NO -3 *

ATL 1-1
NO 0-2

2016 - week 02 - picks

??

09/15 8:25 PM
101 NYJ -1 *
102 BUF 40½ *UNDER*

BUF LT Glenn OUT?
LY BUF wonx2 vs NYJ


09/18 1:00 PM
261 TEN 47 under
262 DET -5½ *


09/18 1:00 PM
263 KC 43½ *
264 HOU -2½ UNDER

LY KC 27 @HOU 20
LY PO KC 30 HOU 0
KC a bit lucky to win last week (if SD made FG, they win game)
HOU D formidable
HOU LT Brown OUT


09/18 1:00 PM
265 MIA 41½ UNDER
266 NE -6½ **

LY MIA 7 @NE 36
LY NE 10 @MIA 20
MIA played well enough to win last week vs SEA
NE surprised last week w/o LT/RT/TE


09/18 1:00 PM
267 BAL -6½ ***
268 CLE 42½ *UNDER*

LY CLE 33 @BAL 30 (OT)
LY BAL 33 @CLE 27
BAL D on the rise?
CLE QB J McCown starts


09/18 1:00 PM
269 CIN 48½ over
270 PIT -3½ *

CIN O run weak? pass good
LY CIN 16 @PIT 10
LY PIT 30 @CIN 20
LY PO PIT 18 CIN 16


09/18 1:00 PM
271 DAL 45½ under
272 WAS -3 *

LY DAL 19 @WAS 16
LY WAS 23 @DAL 34


09/18 1:00 PM
273 NO 53½ *
274 NYG -4½ over

LY NYG 49 @NO 52
NO will start 2 rookie CBs
NYG lucky? again (last week @DAL)
NYG LBs 'shaky'


09/18 1:00 PM
275 SF 45 under
276 CAR -13½ *

CAR should be pissed off they should have won game


09/18 4:05 PM
277 TB 50 *
278 ARI -6½ OVER

ARI D couldn't stop run last wk vs NE (RB Blount)


09/18 4:05 PM
279 SEA -6 UNDER
280 LA 38½ *

LY SEA 31 @STL 34 (OT)
LY STL 23 @SEA 17
SEA O non-functional?


09/18 4:25 PM
281 IND 46 under
282 DEN -6 *

LY DEN 24 @IND 27
IND another slow start?


09/18 4:25 PM
283 ATL 49½ **OVER**
284 OAK -5 *

ATL can't tackle, sack or score in RZ
OAK impressive win w/OL shuffle due to RT inj'd
OAK OL RT? 


09/18 4:25 PM
285 JAC 47 ***
286 SD -3 *OVER*

LY SD 31 @JAC 25


09/18 8:30 PM
287 GB -2½ *
288 MIN 44 under

LY GB 30 @MIN 13
LY MIN 20 @GB 13


09/19 8:30 PM
289 PHI 43 *
290 CHI -3 *under*

PHI TE Ertz ribs OUT?
PHI CB McKelvin hamstring OUT?
PHI QB nice debut, CHI D is a step up?
PHI ST punter, a 'weapon'
will CHI O get shut out in 2nd Half again (did well in 1st Half last week)