Monday, January 02, 2017

2016 - week 18 (aka Play offs week 1) - picks

Update 1/4: added White Hat(WH) records - tendencies - of which some are going against what I picked, maybe I'll change...

OAK @HOU, is a game that's tough to call. Overall OAK is the better team, the edge @QB should go to HOU, but each team will need to win running the ball, stopping the run and playing field position w/their respective ST players OAK has the more experienced FG kicker, but HOU has the better punter...

01/07 4:35 PM
101 OAK 37 under
102 HOU -3 *

week 11 rematch OAK won 27-20 vs HOU (@OAK)
OAK QB Cook starts? (1st)
HOU QB Osweiler starts?
Placing a first half bet on under (18½?) seems prudent
Both teams will need to win running the ball, play good ST and outstanding D
There should be a lot of punts, likely 6 to 7 punts each, with the most 
possessions to be 10 for each team. So 3 to 4 scores at most for each team
Likely only 1 TD each and the rest FGs...
Sports books posted a total of 37 (20-17)
I'm thinking 16-13 at most...
This game really looks like a 6pt tease candidate, w/OAK +9 and under 43 combo.
or if you're into 'middling' do 6½ pt tease
HOU +2½/OAK +9½ or under 43½/over 31½ as possible
or if you're really fearful do a 7pt tease
HOU +3/OAK +10 or under 44/over 30 as possible
if OAK can win with run O, this game could be moneyline win
WH 12-3 FAV SU (LY 13-2 FAV SU)

01/07 8:15 PM
103 DET 42½ *
104 SEA -7½ **over**

judging by the total posted for this game, sportsbooks have questions
6 pt tease = DET +13½/over 36½
DET moneyline?
normally I'd look at under due to SEA D prowess, but I'm thinking at the half a 
score of 13-10 or more is likely
WH 3-12 Over-Under

01/08 1:05 PM
105 MIA 47 over
106 PIT -10 *

week 6 rematch MIA won 30-15 vs PIT (@MIA)
MIA QB Moore starts (3rd)
6 pt tease = PIT -4 over 41 MIA +16 (unsure if under 53 will win)
PIT should win, cover? 31-20?
WH 11-4 RoadATS & FAV SU (LY 12-3 FAV SU)

01/08 4:40 PM
107 NYG 44½ *
108 GB -4 **under**

Placing a first half bet on under (22½?) seems prudent
week 5 rematch GB won 23-16 vs NYG (@GB)
6 pt tease = under 50½ NYG +10 GB +1 (I don't think over 38½ will win)
WH 10-4-1 RoadATS 4-10-1 FAV-DOG-tie (LY 3-13 FAV-DOG)

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