2016 - week 10 - results

Just a little better than last week....


week 10:
ATS: 8-6
Totals: 10-4


for the season:
ATS: 73-70-4
Totals: 76-68-3

2016 - week 10 - picks

I may change a few picks later on this week, watching for injury updates...
10NOV - changed pick from CAR/Under to KC/Under (QB Smith, RB Ware and LB Houston return)

CoB:
ARI CHI CIN HOU NE WAS

GiB:
ATL DEN NYJ SD





11/10 8:25 PM
109 CLE 45 *
110 BAL -10 under

11/13 1:00 PM
251 HOU -1½ *
252 JAC 43 under

11/13 1:00 PM
253 KC 44 *
254 CAR -3 ***UNDER***

11/13 1:00 PM
255 DEN 49½ under
256 NO -1½ ***

11/13 1:00 PM
257 LA 39½ *
258 NYJ -2 under

11/13 1:00 PM
259 ATL 50½ *
260 PHI -1 over

11/13 1:00 PM
261 MIN 42 under
262 WAS -2½ *

11/13 1:00 PM
263 GB -2½ ***OVER***
264 TEN 49½ *

11/13 1:00 PM
265 CHI -1½ ***
266 TB 45 over

11/13 4:05 PM
267 MIA 49 *
268 SD -3½ **OVER**

11/13 4:25 PM
269 SF 48½ *
270 ARI -13½ under

11/13 4:25 PM
271 DAL 50½ *
272 PIT -2½ over

11/13 8:30 PM
273 SEA 48½ over
274 NE -7½ ***

11/14 8:30 PM
275 CIN 47 over
276 NYG -2½ *

2015 - week 10 - results

I can't recall when there were this many upsets in a week. The "dog" won 11 of 14 games ATS. Only TB, CAR and PIT covered as favorites.

TNF - Though I posted my pick of NYJ/Over, I actually bet on BUF/Over normal ATS (which I lost -BUF/Under won the $) and as a 6pt tease which I won.

I had also changed my mind to picking TB/Under combo, but forgot once again to change from DAL/combo


I ended up sub .500 ATS (6-8) as well as for totals (6-7-1) for week 10.... sigh....

2015 - week 10 - results

2015 - week 10 - picks

Last week teams CoB:
3-1 ATS [BUF,JAC,PHI-WAS]
2-2 SU [BUF,PHI-JAC,WAS]

Last week teams GiB:
2-2 ATS [IND,SF-ATL,SD]
2-2 SU [IND,SF-ATL,SD]

Last week DIV:
CIN wins 1st game vs CLE (CIN 3-0 vs DIV, CLE 1-1 vs DIV)
BUF sweeps series w/MIA (BUF 2-0 vs DIV, MIA 0-4 vs DIV)
PHI splits series w/DAL (PHI 2-1 vs DIV, DAL 0-2 vs DIV)

CoB ARI BAL DET HOU KC SEA
GiB CLE NO NYG PIT


11/12 8:25 PM
109 BUF 43 ***OVER*** 
110 NYJ -2½ *



11/15 1:00 PM
251 DET 48 *
252 GB -11½ *over*

DET CoB



11/15 1:00 PM
253 DAL 43½ *
254 TB -1½ over



11/15 1:00 PM
255 CAR -5 *
256 TEN 43 *OVER*



11/15 1:00 PM
257 CHI 42½ *
258 STL -7½ under



11/15 1:00 PM
259 NO -1½ OVER
260 WAS 50½ *

NO GiB



11/15 1:00 PM
261 MIA 47 UNDER
262 PHI -6½ **



11/15 1:00 PM
263 CLE 41 *
264 PIT -4½ under

CLE QB Manziel 3rd start
CLE 1-1 vs DIV (BAL[W], CIN[L])
CLE GiB
PIT GiB
PIT QB Jones 2nd start
PIT 0-2 vs DIV (BAL, CIN)



11/15 1:00 PM
265 JAC 48 **
266 BAL -5 OVER

BAL CoB



11/15 4:05 PM
267 MIN 42½ UNDER
268 OAK -3 *

MIN QB Bridgewater starts?



11/15 4:25 PM
269 KC 42 **
270 DEN -6½ over

KC CoB
DEN won 1st game of series 31-24



11/15 4:25 PM
271 NE -7 *
272 NYG 55 under

NYG GiB



11/15 8:30 PM
273 ARI 45 over
274 SEA -3 *

ARI 1-1 vs DIV (SF[w], STL[L])
ARI CoB
SEA CoB
SEA 1-1 vs DIV (SF[w], STL[L])



11/16 8:30 PM
275 HOU 47 under
276 CIN -10½ *

HOU CoB

2014 - week 10 - the rest of the weekend - picks

CoB
ATL BUF CHI DET GB TEN

GiB
BAL DAL JAC NYJ

trying something new... well at least for me...

11/09 1:00 PM
251 DAL -7 ****
252 JAC 45 *UNDER*

@Wembley Stadium, London, England
DAL GiB
JAC GiB
JAC O needs to make a leap for me to pick



11/09 1:00 PM
253 MIA 43½ **
254 DET -3 under

DET CoB
DET WR Johnson returns (missed 4 wks)



11/09 1:00 PM
255 KC -2½ ***
256 BUF 41½ OVER

BUF CoB



11/09 1:00 PM
257 SF 48½ over
258 NO -4½ *

Offenses heading in opposite directions
Defenses also? if so NO holds edge



11/09 1:00 PM
259 TEN 44 UNDER
260 BAL -10 *

TEN CoB
BAL GiB
TEN QB Mettenberger (2nd start)
It's clear BAL should win SU, will they win ATS?



11/09 1:00 PM
261 PIT -5 ***
262 NYJ 45½ OVER

NYJ GiB



11/09 1:00 PM
263 ATL -2½ ***
264 TB 46 *under*

ATL CoB
TB QB McCown starts
?QB carousel?



11/09 4:05 PM
265 DEN -11½ *
266 OAK 49½ over



11/09 4:25 PM
267 STL 43 OVER
268 ARI -7 *



11/09 4:25 PM
269 NYG 44½ *under*
270 SEA -9 *

NYG overall dinged up
SEA OL dinged up
really tempted to take pts
changed pick back to SEA/Under from NYG/Under



11/09 8:30 PM
271 CHI 53 OVER
272 GB -7½ **

CHI CoB
GB CoB



11/10 8:30 PM
273 CAR 48 UNDER
274 PHI -6 *

CAR OL 'their worst OL ever'
PHI OL shuffle, LG/RG
PHI QB Sanchez starts

2014 - week 10 - TNF - picks

CLE has had close games vs it's division rivals this year, expect another one vs CIN...

11/06 8:25 PM
109 CLE 45 *
110 CIN -6 UNDER

2013 - week 10 - results

TNF, WAS @MIN, suspect coaching by D again (2nd game in a row, see prior game @DAL) almost cost MIN the game, but luckily suspect coaching on O by WAS already cost them the game. Seemingly in control WAS extended their half time lead to 27-14 and they went away from running the ball w/RB Morris. WAS had scored on their first 5 possessions and then proceeded to punt 3 times and end the game on downs. It seems to me WAS has an issue with finishing the game as they were in control. Interestingly enough as well in Q4 w/the game on the line and WAS driving for a TD to tie game, WAS turned almost exclusively to RB Helu, instead of RB Morris.

CIN @BAL, BAL D dominates CIN O for most of the game, though CIN does tie the game and send into OT, it almost seemed as if both teams were going thru the motions or maybe this just wasn't an interesting game.

CAR @SF, CAR D keeps them in the game, CAR O grabs the one chance it had to score a TD and SF FG's just don't cut it as this was a good upset for CAR, though notably SF players were injured during game

DEN @SD, SD D did all it could but it wasn't enough, they just don't have the 'horses' to compete w/the Broncos, that and you must score TD's vs DEN, FG's just won't cut it

SNF, DAL @NO, DAL had several players injured during game, and NO DC Ryan had a great game plan to contain Romo and Co. DAL D just had no answers for Breezy and the boys, that middle parted like the Red Sea.

Again another .500 weekend ATS and just above .500 for totals. And so I inch my way back up to .500 respectability. The surprises for me (or those that I picked Loss [ATS] and Loss [Total])

OAK @NYG, OAK made more of a game than I expected or w/NYG D I may still be thinking they are better than they show. NYG did win SU, but not ATS

JAC @TEN, now I was about to take the pts, but I decided that if JAC was to get off their 0-fer, it would be at home. As for the game TEN QB Locker was injured and QB Fitzpatrick sub'd which was probably the biggest factor for JAC winning, besides playing keep away w/a running game.

HOU @ARI, again I expected more out of HOU O, QB Keenum is playing very well for his third game, but again in the 2nd half (for the third game in a row) HOU has a D that lets you drive and an O that can't move the ball. So is it the players? the playcalling? or a combination of both?

2013 - week 10 - results

2013 - week 10 - picks

GB 14-2 vs division SU
this week, NONE

'SEA hangover' teams the week after playing SEA 1-7 SU/ATS
this week, TB

NFC East 7-14 SU vs non-division opponents
this week, WAS @MIN, DAL @NO, PHI @GB, OAK @NYG

TEAMS w/10 days rest 11-5 ATS/SU
W (BAL,DEN,NYJ,NE,KC,SF,STL,NYG,ARI,SEA*,CAR) 
L [PHI,BUF,CLE,CHI,TB**]
* indicates lost ATS
** indicates won ATS
TEAMS w/10 days rest (10Dr)*=11Dr
this week CIN MIA*


Teams Going into Bye 13-11 SU
Teams Going into Bye 12-12 ATS
W (CAR,MIN,WAS,SD,DEN,NYG,DET*,SF,ARI,CLE,KC,NE,NYJ) 
L [GB,PIT,TB,MIA,ATL,NO,OAK,CHI,HOU,TEN,JAC]
* indicates lost ATS
Teams Going into Bye (GiB) 
this week, DAL STL


Teams Coming Off Bye 5-5 ATS/SU  
W (GB,PIT,ATL,NO,OAK,CHI,IND,TEN) 
L [CAR,MIN,WAS,TB,MIA,BAL,HOU,SD]
Teams Coming Off Bye  (CoB) 
this week, ARI DEN DET JAC NYG SF

11/10 1:00 PM
203 JAC 41 *UNDER*
204 TEN -13 ?*

CoB JAC
?TAKE PTS?


11/10 1:00 PM
205 PHI 54½ *
206 GB -9½ under

GB QB Wallace starts (preseason game 1)


11/10 1:00 PM
207 BUF 41 *OVER*
208 PIT -3½ *

BUF QB Tuel starts (preseason game 2)
11/7 update: BUF QB Manuel starts


11/10 1:00 PM
209 OAK 43½ under
210 NYG -7 *

CoB NYG


11/10 1:00 PM
211 STL 43½ *
212 IND -10 UNDER

GiB STL
STL QB Clemens starts (preseason game 3)
Taking pts, just not comfortable w/IND O, really sputtering w/o WR Wayne


11/10 1:00 PM
213 SEA -6½ under
214 ATL 44 *

??TAKE THE PTS??
ATL has won last 3 games vs SEA (including playoffs)



11/10 1:00 PM
215 CIN -1½ *UNDER*
216 BAL 44 *

10Dr CIN
LY series split, home teams wins
CIN injuries taking a toll on D?
if CIN has a 3rd pony to ride on O, they'll win if not, it's a road loss
unless of course BAL keeps going 3 wide, I suspect with the start of the '2nd season' (9th game) and their record 3-5 and CIN leading their division w/6-3, that BAL will return to ol' school



11/10 1:00 PM
217 DET -2½ ****OVER****
218 CHI 50 *

CoB DET
CHI QB McCown starts (preseason game 2)
series split? home team wins? wk4 DET @home won 40-32
11/7 update: CHI QB Cutler starts


11/10 4:05 PM
219 CAR 42½ UNDER
220 SF -6 *

CoB SF


11/10 4:25 PM
221 HOU 41 *
222 ARI -2½ UNDER

HOU QB Keenum starts (preseason game 3)
3rd tough D in a row for HOU QB Keenum
motivation: DEN 1st game w/o HC Kubiak, DC Phillips interim HC
CoB ARI


11/10 4:25 PM
223 DEN -7 under
224 SD 57½ *

CoB DEN
Both teams know each others O, so should this game be UNDER?
I initially picked OVER, but thought better of it
motivation: DEN 1st game w/o HC Fox, DC Del Rio interim HC


11/10 8:30 PM
225 DAL 53 *
226 NO -7 *OVER*

GiB DAL
NO has yet to lose at home this season and coming off a loss
DAL coming off a 'lucky' home win, they'll need more than luck to win on the road.
DAL 1-3 SU on the road, 3-1 ATS 
?TAKE pts?


11/11 8:40 PM
227 MIA -3 *UNDER?
228 TB 41 *

11Dr MIA
Both teams coming off of OT games, MIA won, TB loss
If TB has not quit on Coach Schiano, I suspect this is a desperate team, they played over their heads on the road at SEA, MIA barely got the win last week AND plays better @home, this game is on the road.
MIA OL controversy, G Incognito OUT, T Martin OUT, coaching ordered '?code red?', media circus, 

it's always a bet against w/drama on a team.

2013 - week 10 - Thursday - picks

11/07 8:25 PM
107 WAS -2½ *OVER*
108 MIN 49 *

LY WAS won 38-26 @home

It's interesting that WAS is favored on the road. Last week at SD, WAS ran a lot of plays, out of essentially a run O formation and even passed though Griffin's accuracy didn't hurt them as SD D had issues stopping the run.

In this game, MIN D is used to playing the run and should be better at stopping the run than SD, but MIN D weakness is their pass D which goes against the weakness of WAS O, their pass O, so strength vs strength and weakness vs weakness for WAS O and MIN D.

 Flipping it around MIN O vs WAS D, surprisingly WAS pass D did fairly well against SD pass O last week (though I really think a phantom call against SD O and non-calls by officiating crew affected SD O). WAS pass D is not strong and MIN pass O looked good at times @DAL last week.

MIN run O is well known. I think their is an edge here. WAS D should be playing the run first and if MIN QB Ponder does well again (2 games in-a-row) we should have a close game.

It appears to me that the team that passes better will win the game. I think the total is the softer line, taking a home dog as WAS O has yet to play well on the road.

With ST, MIN appears to hold the edge as WAS has been penalty prone.

2013 - week 10 - GRID 10 efficiency

This past 'Hell-o-ween' weekend also killed the efficiency GRID predictions as compared to the QBrating GRID (that I still do just not posting for 'net consumption)

here's a snapshot of results from this past weekend:

qb rtg
R RO-D H HO-D Predi Dif
CIN 0.75 MIA 7.9 MIA 7.15
ATL -31.9 CAR 32.4333 CAR 64.333333
MIN -32.033 DAL 18.025 DAL 50.058333 (did not cover ATS)
NO 1.43333 NYJ -4.725 NO -6.158333 X
TEN -12.967 STL -6.9333 STL 6.0333333 X
KC 32.8333 BUF 8.925 KC -23.90833
SD 4.075 WAS -7 SD -11.075  X
PHI 20.925 OAK -4.8 PHI -25.725
TB -35.6 SEA 61.7667 SEA 97.366667 (did not cover ATS)
BAL -24.2 CLE 7.875 CLE 32.075
PIT 17.275 NE 22.375 NE 5.1
IND 20.8333 HOU -15.9 IND -36.73333
CHI -18.133 GB 42.6667 GB 60.8  X

my own efficiency
road RO-D ef home HO-D ef predicts DIF
CIN -0% MIA -10% CIN -0.092486 X
ATL -9% CAR 17% CAR 0.2618816
MIN -15% DAL 10% DAL 0.2445124 (did not cover ATS)
NO 16% NYJ -3% NO -0.191044 X
TEN 2% STL 7% STL 0.0490143 X
KC 17% BUF -5% KC -0.216063
SD 1% WAS -7% SD -0.086371 X
PHI 7% OAK 5% PHI -0.01066
TB -15% SEA 25% SEA 0.4008751 (did not cover ATS)
BAL -4% CLE -6% BAL -0.019247 X
PIT 0% NE 16% NE 0.1550626
IND 20% HOU -5% IND -0.25594
CHI -5% GB 30% GB 0.3464591 X

dif for:
CIN @MIA
BAL @CLE

X = WRONG

As you can see it's 4 wrong vs 6 wrong, those two different choices by QBrating were spot on.

The errors;
 NO @NYJ - NYJ stuck to alternating W's and L's
TEN @STL - I guess I need to factor in new QB's better, but how?
SD @WAS - officiating and play calling were bigger factors than ST and WAS QB Griffin accuracy
CHI @GB - key injury to GB QB Rodgers in Q1


This week's GRID is interesting as some of the top teams are falling back to the pack.

2013 - week 10 - GRID - efficiency

I separated the teams by top 15%, mid 9% and bottom 15%. Granted I could have thinned the middle out by going to only 4%, but PIT, HOU, NYG, and WAS all have a chance at a .500 season and MIA, CLE and OAK have an even better chance. So I gave them all a chance at getting to .500 for the season.

NYJ and DET appears to be an anomaly w/less than 0% O-D efficiency. I think this is because that when they lose, they lose big and when they win, they don't win by a large margin in efficiency, thus they'll be less than 0% until there W/L habits change.

notable movers for the past month:
MIN is down 6%
SEA is down 5%
NO is down 5%
PHI is down 5% (even with their huge win this past weekend @OAK)
ATL down 4%

NYG is up 14%
CAR is up 5%
CIN is up 5%
SF is up 4%
HOU is up 4%