2013 - week 10 - GRID 10 efficiency

This past 'Hell-o-ween' weekend also killed the efficiency GRID predictions as compared to the QBrating GRID (that I still do just not posting for 'net consumption)

here's a snapshot of results from this past weekend:

qb rtg
R RO-D H HO-D Predi Dif
CIN 0.75 MIA 7.9 MIA 7.15
ATL -31.9 CAR 32.4333 CAR 64.333333
MIN -32.033 DAL 18.025 DAL 50.058333 (did not cover ATS)
NO 1.43333 NYJ -4.725 NO -6.158333 X
TEN -12.967 STL -6.9333 STL 6.0333333 X
KC 32.8333 BUF 8.925 KC -23.90833
SD 4.075 WAS -7 SD -11.075  X
PHI 20.925 OAK -4.8 PHI -25.725
TB -35.6 SEA 61.7667 SEA 97.366667 (did not cover ATS)
BAL -24.2 CLE 7.875 CLE 32.075
PIT 17.275 NE 22.375 NE 5.1
IND 20.8333 HOU -15.9 IND -36.73333
CHI -18.133 GB 42.6667 GB 60.8  X

my own efficiency
road RO-D ef home HO-D ef predicts DIF
CIN -0% MIA -10% CIN -0.092486 X
ATL -9% CAR 17% CAR 0.2618816
MIN -15% DAL 10% DAL 0.2445124 (did not cover ATS)
NO 16% NYJ -3% NO -0.191044 X
TEN 2% STL 7% STL 0.0490143 X
KC 17% BUF -5% KC -0.216063
SD 1% WAS -7% SD -0.086371 X
PHI 7% OAK 5% PHI -0.01066
TB -15% SEA 25% SEA 0.4008751 (did not cover ATS)
BAL -4% CLE -6% BAL -0.019247 X
PIT 0% NE 16% NE 0.1550626
IND 20% HOU -5% IND -0.25594
CHI -5% GB 30% GB 0.3464591 X

dif for:
CIN @MIA
BAL @CLE

X = WRONG

As you can see it's 4 wrong vs 6 wrong, those two different choices by QBrating were spot on.

The errors;
 NO @NYJ - NYJ stuck to alternating W's and L's
TEN @STL - I guess I need to factor in new QB's better, but how?
SD @WAS - officiating and play calling were bigger factors than ST and WAS QB Griffin accuracy
CHI @GB - key injury to GB QB Rodgers in Q1


This week's GRID is interesting as some of the top teams are falling back to the pack.

2013 - week 10 - GRID - efficiency

I separated the teams by top 15%, mid 9% and bottom 15%. Granted I could have thinned the middle out by going to only 4%, but PIT, HOU, NYG, and WAS all have a chance at a .500 season and MIA, CLE and OAK have an even better chance. So I gave them all a chance at getting to .500 for the season.

NYJ and DET appears to be an anomaly w/less than 0% O-D efficiency. I think this is because that when they lose, they lose big and when they win, they don't win by a large margin in efficiency, thus they'll be less than 0% until there W/L habits change.

notable movers for the past month:
MIN is down 6%
SEA is down 5%
NO is down 5%
PHI is down 5% (even with their huge win this past weekend @OAK)
ATL down 4%

NYG is up 14%
CAR is up 5%
CIN is up 5%
SF is up 4%
HOU is up 4%