Wednesday, November 13, 2013

2013 - week 11 - picks

GB 14-2 vs division SU
this week, NONE

'SEA hangover' teams the week after playing SEA 2-7 SU/ATS
this week, ATL

NFC East 9-16 SU vs non-division opponents
this week, GB @NYG

TEAMS w/10 days rest 11-7 ATS/SU
* indicates lost ATS
** indicates won ATS
TEAMS w/10 days rest (10Dr)
this week, WAS MIN

Teams Going into Bye 14-12 SU
Teams Going into Bye 13-13 ATS
* indicates lost ATS
Teams Going into Bye (GiB) 
this week, BUF CIN PHI SEA

Teams Coming Off Bye 10-6 SU  
Teams Coming Off Bye 8-8 ATS
* = loss ATS
Teams Coming Off Bye  (CoB) 
this week, CLE KC NE NYJ

11/17 1:00 PM
403 ATL -1½ under
404 TB 43½ *

Why is ATL favored?

11/17 1:00 PM
405 NYJ 41 ***
406 BUF -1½ *under?

NYJ TE Winslow starts? WR Holmes starts?
NYJ won 1st game 27-20
NYJ alternating WLW? or is it even number(Loss) odd number(win) week
NYJ 1-3 SU on the road
BUF QB Manuel starts (2nd game after return from injury)
BUF also had a LWL? pattern w/QB Manuel
Normally for division games I'll go with the split series, as the majority of teams do so each season, but BUF is starting their rookie QB, he did not look sharp last week. So BUF needs to rely on run O, but in recent weeks, their run O has a gained yardage and looks to be just above average, but the playcalling and timing of plays w/OL seems to be off. NYJ seems to be on an ascent and BUF on the descent. NYJ should sweeps series.

11/17 1:00 PM
407 DET -2½ *
408 PIT 47½ *over*

It's another coming of age game for DET (if they win) and scratch/claw their way up game for PIT.

11/17 1:00 PM
409 WAS 52½ OVER
410 PHI -3½ **

WAS 10Dr

11/17 4:05 PM
411 SD -1½ *
412 MIA 45½ *over?

So as the drama continues on in MIA, will SD come in and get the win?

11/17 1:00 PM
413 BAL 46½ *?
414 CHI -3 under?

CHI QB McCown starts (preseason game 2, [started week 9, won ])
CHI CB Tillman OUT
CHI injuries continue to mount as each week goes by. BAL D is playing really well, it's their O and ST that are having issues. I'm unsure if the strength of CHI is their O, their D or ST.
If BAL O and ST just cut down on TOs they should win the game. Both are coming off division games. CHI is in the playoff hunt, BAL is on the outside looking in, motivation favors BAL.
11/16 update: weather, storms, winds: looks like under the total is better.
11/16 update: changed pick from BAL/OVER to BAL/UNDER

11/17 1:00 PM
415 CLE 42 *
416 CIN -6 under

Week 4 CLE won 17-6 vs CIN
CLE QB Campbell starts (preseason game 3)
CIN O is predictable and their D is piling up w/injuries. CLE O is on the upswing and their D is the heart of their team. It's hard to pick CIN at home in a division game for the series split. I normally would pick the split, but this looks like a sweep.

11/17 1:00 PM
417 OAK 42½ over?
418 HOU -7 ****

OAK loses close on the road except to division foes this season
HOU should win will they cover?
HOU maybe a better first half bet than a whole game bet
HOU QB Keenum starts (preseason game 4, so far 0-fer)
HOU O has played the two best Ds in the past 3 games (KC, ARI) and had an odd game w/a loss at home to IND (HOU HC Kubiak collapse @half). I think HOU will blow out OAK in the first half, it's the second half that I don't know what to expect.

11/17 1:00 PM
419 ARI -6½ ****
420 JAC 41 under?

JAC last week 1st win of the year and an improbable win, you get lucky every once in a while, I think JAC luck runs out this week

11/17 8:30 PM
421 KC 50 *
422 DEN -8½ under

note: KC HC Reid 13-1 SU CoB

11/17 4:25 PM
423 MIN 45½ *
424 SEA -13½ ***OVER***

MIN WR Simpson out?
MIN 10Dr
SEA CB Browner out
SEA QB Wilson 10-0 @home
LY MIN lost @SEA 20-30
I don't expect SEA to lose, I just wonder can they cover? The total is a much better bet

11/17 4:25 PM
425 SF 47½ under
426 NO -3 *

SF TE Davis out?
strength vs strength, SF D vs NO O
NO D just needs to stop SF run O and they'll win

11/17 4:25 PM
427 GB 42½ under
428 NYG -6½ ****

GB QB Tolzien starts? (preseason game 1)
GB D really poor tackling last week
GB OL shuffle? C? RG? RT?
NYG 2nd game in a row @home
NYG D playing well, ST so-so and O really needs to take care of ball
LW OAK @NYG, NYG ST and O 'gifted' 17pts for OAK. OAK O 'only' scored 3pts

11/18 8:40 PM
429 NE 46 under
430 CAR -2½ *

NE 7-0 streak in NOV
Last week CAR big road win, now the lights of MNF..

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