Monday, November 14, 2011

2011 week 11 Thursday night - pick

11/17 8:20 PM

307 NYJ -4.5 UNDER
308 DEN 41 **

short prep for both teams, DEN since Tebow has become starter is 3-1 (3-0 road, 0-1 home). Common opponents this year MIA & SD (back2back weeks) & OAK. It's tempting to take 'under' the total, both teams should emphasize running ball w/D's stopping run. If NYJ scores at least 24, DEN needs to score @least 17 for a push, 18+ for the over - this seems doubtful to me - and so it's 'under'.

on another train of thought ... NYJ has a big DL w/only one sub 300lb personnel (295lb). This should give DEN OL problems w/run O. (just not as easy pushing around KC DL). NYJ LB's are also pretty good at stopping run. IF NYJ can make DEN one dimensional by stopping running game, then NYJ should win easily. If DEN D could do same to NYJ O, then we should have an under game. I just don't expect to see that as NYJ is a better passing team and can run. ST edge also goes to NYJ.

DEN only real edge is rest (no travel) and altitude, but this could be enough. There are reports on 'net of NYJ personnel dislike for going to DEN on short week of 4 days (really 2 days practice, 1 day travel, then game day). If altitude really affects NYJ, it should be seen in Q2 & Q4, NYJ may tire at this point and DEN personnel could take advantage. Temp will start in the 50's dropping into 40's by end of game, slight wind, should be a crisp night w/high altitude dry air. NYJ is near sea-level so going up to 5200+ ft should mess w/NYJ D - they could tire, if DEN runO keeps the pedal to the metal. If McGahee plays for at least a half DEN should have a much better chance of winning.

DEN DE's could disrupt NYJ QB Sanchez, I just don't think Dawkins is quick enough and can be beaten over the top, but NYJ doesn't really have an effective speedster. This should be a ground/pound game for both teams. I just think it's easier to make DEN O one dimensional than it is to make NYJ O, thus edge to NYJ.

updated thoughts - watching last year's game in Oct mid-day sunny, warm, NYJ was a little lucky to win game. The diiference this year will be DEN runO vs NYJ D. Again we'll see NYJ O vs DEN D, this year I think DEN D will win due to personnel changes for NYJ skill players (w/o WR Cotchery, Edwards & QB/WR/PR/KR Smith) which are a downgrade except for Buress in redzone. DEN CB Bailey was inj at beginning of Q2, DEN D also has upgraded DL. This year I'm thinkin' NYJ QB Sanchez will make more errors and unless they stick to run game, DEN D will cause more TO's and ST will come thru (no missed/muffed FG attempts)
NYJ D will probably need to run blitz DEN runO to effectively contain DEN. Under the total is still the preference and I'm changing my pick to the 'dog +4.5 DEN

more updates:
here's an espn clip that takes the stand of 'Is the point spread to low?'
These pundits are all saying yes too low, but they're only discussing one match up of DEN O vs NYJ D. They should be looking at NYJ O vs DEN D as well as ST. NYJ was fortunate to win last year w/more TO's. Normally the team w/more TO's will lose the game. I'm guessing the same will occur again w/NYJ having more TO's and this time DEN gets the W

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