week 3

gm# TEAMs (spread, O/U) BOLD favored side or total, italics weaker pick, GREEN best bet
199 NYJ 34.5 U
200 BUF -5.5 X
initially I took BUF, but decided on under instead. BUF's D should dominate game, 5.5 may be too much to cover. see http://www.footballoutsiders.com/2006/09/19/ramblings/any-given-sunday/4254/ midway down BUF's real secret is the #1 ST in NFL and conservative O play calling

201 CIN 41.5 X
202 PIT -1.5 U
I believe 1st half will be lower scoring than expected, PIT will score more than on MNF, but CIN will ultimately prevail, get the points while you can, by Sunday you may have to lay points w/CIN (*note PIT has a bye next week*)

203 JAC 44.5 X
204 IND -7 U
JAC w/it's great D and 7 pts are the money winner here, my only concern is the short week for JAC. I'm thinkin under though IND D is a couple of steps down from JAC D, this may really be an over contest, I'm just thinkin IND D will get some players back from INJ list

205 TEN 35.5 X
206 MIA -11 O
MIA should win but covering 11 is a lot, so total is much more tempting, though checking on TEN you'll notice that they only scored in 4th qtr and difference in scores for MIA games were 11 & 10 (game 1 & 2) so there is a likelyhood of covering w/a larger number, say 14?

207 WAS -4 X
208 HOU 37.5 U
I have a hard time taking WAS as O seems to be ineffective, it's just that HOU has OL inj's and will most likely have an OL shuffle w/2 positions. Here's a game where WAS D will win the game and their O will be setup w/easy field position

209 CHI -3 X
210 MIN 34 U
I believe MIN D is under rated, their OL has played very well, but CHI D is great and their O should score enough to cover the 3 pts. It was tough to pick either a side or total since I like each pick

211 CAR -3 X
212 TB 34 U
TB has OL issues and thus CAR should cover and total will go under again hard to pick either side or total as I really like both picks (* note TB going into bye week *)

213 GB 38.5 O
214 DET -7 X
GB's first road game of the year and at home they've allowed 26 & 34 pts (CHI & NO). Over is the only real worthwhile play though DET has not scored much (6 & 7, SEA & CHI). I just expect a much higher output from DET @home, but I couldn't really say they'll cover 7

215 BAL -6.5 X
216 CLE 33 U
BAL is clearly a playoff contender and CLE has a few more years, the total should go under as well

217 STL 45 U
218 ARI -4.5 X
I'm having a tough time picking either a side or total as STL is a bit of an enigma to me

219 NYG 44 U
220 SEA -3.5 X
2nd week in a row NYG gets to play a tough D, though I expect SEA knows how to close out games, the 1/2 pt hook should entice a lot of NYG bettors, though I expect the pros to look at the under first then SEA, I like both picks and chose the side due to the home field advantage of normally -3 (* NYG going into bye week *)

221 PHI -6 X
222 SF 42 U
Tough luck loss for PHI last week? or lesson on closing games? PHI should win and cover 6, I did notice that SF stats are dramatically better than last year on both O and D, I'm just counting on 10 to 14 pts and around 24pts from PHI

223 DEN 39 U
224 NE -7 X
DEN O appears to be on a downward spiral, NE scores at least 4 times a game so max 28 or min 12 and mid of 20, both side and total were very tempting (* DEN going into bye week *)

225 ATL -3.5 X
226 NO 42 U
NO has been doing very well on the road scoring pts. Look for ATL to dominate 1st half and perhaps let NO into the game in the 2nd half (4th qtr), though ATL D appears to be formidable and I don't believe NO will score more than 10 pts.

(* note - picking against the teams going into the bye week is just a coincidence. Last week teams going into bye week were 2-2 SU and 3-1 ATS. DAL & SD 2-0, KC 1-1, OAK 0-2 *)